Recent Articles by Luke Miller

SPY Bumping Against Resistance

With the odds shifting at the micro-level to that OMH camp, Bayes is playing that long swing trade as a Notes trade.
by Luke Miller - 2 weeks ago

Bearish Under The Surface

The Bayesian resistance band identified weeks ago at 440-444s in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues to thwart any bullish advance.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

BTS Joins The Party

At the lows of the day yesterday, we went into buy mode in IWM, QQQ, and SPY.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Bayesian Probabilities Pointing To Pullback

Bayesian Probability (BP) still supports the narrative of a larger pullback in July.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Bullish Lean To SPY's Chop

SPY is back in the 414-418 web, yet again, but we remain long and looking higher.
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago

Easy Trading To End Soon

As May approaches, another bullish leg is expected, but from what I am seeing the easy trading is coming to an end soon.
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago

Not Bearish Long-Term, But Eyeing Near-Term Drawdown

Odds for a swift move lower continue to build for December/January.
by Luke Miller - 9 months ago

Important Low Potential Ahead

Bayesian analysis intermediate-term points to an important low potential in equity indices and metals late Nov/early Dec.
by Luke Miller - 10 months ago

On The Lookout For Risk-Off Move This Quarter

Bayesian Probabilities give SPY a 69% chance of seeing at least 325 or lower before a sustainable path higher can emerge.
by Luke Miller - 11 months ago

SPY Pointing Toward 320

If this path proves out, then a swift move to the low 320s is on deck for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

SPY Could See 300 In Path Lower

There is a 75% Bayesian probability the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) begins a sustainable path lower from the 350-356s to at least 300.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Eyeing Path Lower in SPY

The Bayesian probabilities point to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) beginning a sustainable path lower.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

SPY Looking Higher, Metals Bears Have Window

There's a 62% Bayesian probability that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) generally holds above 316-320 and attempts another run higher into the 330s.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Riding The Rally, Awaiting Bayesian Signal Change

We continue to sit on a bunch of stock-based ETF profits across numerous sector ETFs with the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) still chipping away at the resistance band of 322-326s.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Eyeing Low 320's In SPY

The Bayesian Timing System is back to being a bull for a swing trade and sees targets in the low 320s for starters in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) before a $30+ pullback.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Upside Appears Limited

The odds continue to support the bears having their day/week/months, and upside appears limited from here.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Bayesian Probabilities 2 to 1 In Favor Of Continued Strength

After locking in profits on our shorts last week and cumulative gains of 8% this week on our long positions, the Bayesian Timing System (BTS) wasted no time getting back in the game with another long trigger into the selloff in the morning on May 27.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Bayes Signals Remain Short

Will we get a sell-off into the last week of May for that other vibration window alignment relative low?   Time will tell, but the Bayesian signals remain short.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Continuing To Lean Bearish on SPY

With SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in a vibration window and still struggling to get thru 286-289 resistance, our Bayesian Probabilities (BP) continue to lean bearish.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Bayesian Probabilities Lean Bearish

Bearish Bayesian probabilities (BPs) are still stronger than bullish ones, with a 72% probability the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues to stall in the 290s and begins a descent back to at least the low 270s.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Squeezed Between Two Zones

Bayesian probabilities call for a grind higher back to near 278-282 in SPY, which then sets up a swift move lower to 270 or even the low 260s.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Highest-Probability Path (Higher) Winning Out Again

The highest probability path does appear to be winning out again, and has led to one of those perfect trading weeks = boring and very profitable.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Eyeing SPY Bottoming Action

Our Bayesian Timing System is keenly watching this bottoming action, as an ability for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to base above 210 could very well be "the bottom.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Tradable Shot at SPY 300

We are at an important bottoming region in the 270s on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and the Bayesian Timing System has determined this risk-return set up is worth it.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Eyeing SPY Bottom Above 300

If the SDPR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) breaks 295-300, then the probability of a bear market beginning now has increased, and bounces should start to resemble “bear market rallies.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago