Recent Articles by Luke Miller

Important Low Potential Ahead

Bayesian analysis intermediate-term points to an important low potential in equity indices and metals late Nov/early Dec.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

On The Lookout For Risk-Off Move This Quarter

Bayesian Probabilities give SPY a 69% chance of seeing at least 325 or lower before a sustainable path higher can emerge.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

SPY Pointing Toward 320

If this path proves out, then a swift move to the low 320s is on deck for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

SPY Could See 300 In Path Lower

There is a 75% Bayesian probability the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) begins a sustainable path lower from the 350-356s to at least 300.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Eyeing Path Lower in SPY

The Bayesian probabilities point to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) beginning a sustainable path lower.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

SPY Looking Higher, Metals Bears Have Window

There's a 62% Bayesian probability that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) generally holds above 316-320 and attempts another run higher into the 330s.
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago

Riding The Rally, Awaiting Bayesian Signal Change

We continue to sit on a bunch of stock-based ETF profits across numerous sector ETFs with the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) still chipping away at the resistance band of 322-326s.
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago

Eyeing Low 320's In SPY

The Bayesian Timing System is back to being a bull for a swing trade and sees targets in the low 320s for starters in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) before a $30+ pullback.
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago

Upside Appears Limited

The odds continue to support the bears having their day/week/months, and upside appears limited from here.
by Luke Miller - 5 months ago

Bayesian Probabilities 2 to 1 In Favor Of Continued Strength

After locking in profits on our shorts last week and cumulative gains of 8% this week on our long positions, the Bayesian Timing System (BTS) wasted no time getting back in the game with another long trigger into the selloff in the morning on May 27.
by Luke Miller - 6 months ago

Bayes Signals Remain Short

Will we get a sell-off into the last week of May for that other vibration window alignment relative low?   Time will tell, but the Bayesian signals remain short.
by Luke Miller - 6 months ago

Continuing To Lean Bearish on SPY

With SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in a vibration window and still struggling to get thru 286-289 resistance, our Bayesian Probabilities (BP) continue to lean bearish.
by Luke Miller - 6 months ago

Bayesian Probabilities Lean Bearish

Bearish Bayesian probabilities (BPs) are still stronger than bullish ones, with a 72% probability the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues to stall in the 290s and begins a descent back to at least the low 270s.
by Luke Miller - 6 months ago

Squeezed Between Two Zones

Bayesian probabilities call for a grind higher back to near 278-282 in SPY, which then sets up a swift move lower to 270 or even the low 260s.
by Luke Miller - 7 months ago

Highest-Probability Path (Higher) Winning Out Again

The highest probability path does appear to be winning out again, and has led to one of those perfect trading weeks = boring and very profitable.
by Luke Miller - 7 months ago

Eyeing SPY Bottoming Action

Our Bayesian Timing System is keenly watching this bottoming action, as an ability for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to base above 210 could very well be "the bottom.
by Luke Miller - 8 months ago

Tradable Shot at SPY 300

We are at an important bottoming region in the 270s on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and the Bayesian Timing System has determined this risk-return set up is worth it.
by Luke Miller - 8 months ago

Eyeing SPY Bottom Above 300

If the SDPR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) breaks 295-300, then the probability of a bear market beginning now has increased, and bounces should start to resemble “bear market rallies.
by Luke Miller - 9 months ago

SPY At Top End of Trading Range

The Bayesian Timing System (BTS) still indicates we are in a trading range between the 310s and 330s on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) for several more weeks, and we presently find ourselves near the top end of this range now.
by Luke Miller - 9 months ago

Weak Internals to SPY Bounce

As the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has bounced to the highest resistance band near 332, the probabilities have continued to indicate this bounce has weak internals and a trip back down to 315-320 continues to be the most likely outcome over the next 1-2 weeks.
by Luke Miller - 9 months ago

Bayesian Signals Flip To Long in SPY

Keeping an open mind to the dynamic, non-linear nature of markets is one of the specialties of the Bayesian Timing System (BTS), and near the low of the day on January 14, the signals in SPY flipped to long.
by Luke Miller - 10 months ago

Bayesian Update on SPY, GDX & USO

With GDX crashing directly into Bayesian support in the low 28s, the BTS is attempting a long stab. See our updated probabilities on the S&P 500 and Oil as well.
by Luke Miller - 10 months ago

Locking In Profits, Re-Assessing Path

On December 17, the signals changed to neutral, as Path 2 discussed below witnessed a quick rate-of-change at the micro level.  As such, the Bayesian Timing System stayed true to its process, locked in profits, and went to the sidelines to re-assess.
by Luke Miller - 11 months ago

Leaning Bullish After Consolidation Completes

With the market barely moving, the Bayesian Timing Signal (BTS) is presently neutral after locking in profits last week, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) dances between 308-314. Bayesian analysis still leans bullish with SPY targets in the 330s after this consolidation completes.
by Luke Miller - 11 months ago

SPY At Important Bayesian Resistance Region

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues its attack on the resistance zone of 308-311s, and as of Nov 15 SPY hit the upper end of that range.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago