After locking in profits on our shorts last week and cumulative gains of 8% this week on our long positions, the Bayesian Timing System (BTS) wasted no time getting back in the game with another long trigger into the selloff in the morning on May 27.
Bearish Bayesian probabilities (BPs) are still stronger than bullish ones, with a 72% probability the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues to stall in the 290s and begins a descent back to at least the low 270s.
The Bayesian Timing System (BTS) still indicates we are in a trading range between the 310s and 330s on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) for several more weeks, and we presently find ourselves near the top end of this range now.
As the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has bounced to the highest resistance band near 332, the probabilities have continued to indicate this bounce has weak internals and a trip back down to 315-320 continues to be the most likely outcome over the next 1-2 weeks.
Keeping an open mind to the dynamic, non-linear nature of markets is one of the specialties of the Bayesian Timing System (BTS), and near the low of the day on January 14, the signals in SPY flipped to long.
On December 17, the signals changed to neutral, as Path 2 discussed below witnessed a quick rate-of-change at the micro level. As such, the Bayesian Timing System stayed true to its process, locked in profits, and went to the sidelines to re-assess.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago
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