Recent Articles by Luke Miller

Building Last Swing High Before Bearish Trend

The SPX is working on building out its last swing high in Q1 2023 before what Bayesian Probabilities (BPs) expect to be a bearish trend into mid-year.

by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Bayesian Probabilities Favoring Bulls

Odds continue to support at least one more multi-week bullish higher into the fall.

by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Bayesian Probabilities Support May Forming Multi-Month Bottom

The most important leading index for this potential bottom remains IWM holding above its important 168-172 cluster, of which it continues to do.

by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Capitalizing On Correction ... What's Next?

We were net short from early-January 2022 until a week or so ago…now, we’re long.

by Luke Miller - 1 year ago

Awaiting Signal To Book Profits On Shorts

The vibration window this week is leaning towards its usual relative-low setup.

by Luke Miller - 2 years ago

Looking Higher In SPY & GDX

In metals if there was ever a bullish setup in GDX, then this is it.

by Luke Miller - 2 years ago

Remaining Patient For Next SPY Setup

Last week the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit our BP (Bayesian Probabilities) resistance cluster near 472 into a predetermined vibration window (vw) and turned down as the odds would dictate.

by Luke Miller - 2 years ago

What's The Most Likely Next Trade?

The large intraday moves in the market were expected this week -- in fact, I told our members a month ago to expect to see it in the first week of October.

by Luke Miller - 2 years ago

SPY Bumping Against Resistance

With the odds shifting at the micro-level to that OMH camp, Bayes is playing that long swing trade as a Notes trade.

by Luke Miller - 2 years ago

Bearish Under The Surface

The Bayesian resistance band identified weeks ago at 440-444s in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues to thwart any bullish advance.

by Luke Miller - 2 years ago

BTS Joins The Party

At the lows of the day yesterday, we went into buy mode in IWM, QQQ, and SPY.

by Luke Miller - 2 years ago

Bayesian Probabilities Pointing To Pullback

Bayesian Probability (BP) still supports the narrative of a larger pullback in July.

by Luke Miller - 2 years ago

Bullish Lean To SPY's Chop

SPY is back in the 414-418 web, yet again, but we remain long and looking higher.

by Luke Miller - 2 years ago

Easy Trading To End Soon

As May approaches, another bullish leg is expected, but from what I am seeing the easy trading is coming to an end soon.

by Luke Miller - 2 years ago

Not Bearish Long-Term, But Eyeing Near-Term Drawdown

Odds for a swift move lower continue to build for December/January.

by Luke Miller - 3 years ago

Important Low Potential Ahead

Bayesian analysis intermediate-term points to an important low potential in equity indices and metals late Nov/early Dec.

by Luke Miller - 3 years ago

On The Lookout For Risk-Off Move This Quarter

Bayesian Probabilities give SPY a 69% chance of seeing at least 325 or lower before a sustainable path higher can emerge.

by Luke Miller - 3 years ago

SPY Pointing Toward 320

If this path proves out, then a swift move to the low 320s is on deck for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

by Luke Miller - 3 years ago

SPY Could See 300 In Path Lower

There is a 75% Bayesian probability the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) begins a sustainable path lower from the 350-356s to at least 300.

by Luke Miller - 3 years ago

Eyeing Path Lower in SPY

The Bayesian probabilities point to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) beginning a sustainable path lower.

by Luke Miller - 3 years ago

SPY Looking Higher, Metals Bears Have Window

There's a 62% Bayesian probability that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) generally holds above 316-320 and attempts another run higher into the 330s.

by Luke Miller - 3 years ago

Riding The Rally, Awaiting Bayesian Signal Change

We continue to sit on a bunch of stock-based ETF profits across numerous sector ETFs with the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) still chipping away at the resistance band of 322-326s.

by Luke Miller - 3 years ago

Eyeing Low 320's In SPY

The Bayesian Timing System is back to being a bull for a swing trade and sees targets in the low 320s for starters in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) before a $30+ pullback.

by Luke Miller - 3 years ago

Upside Appears Limited

The odds continue to support the bears having their day/week/months, and upside appears limited from here.

by Luke Miller - 3 years ago

Bayesian Probabilities 2 to 1 In Favor Of Continued Strength

After locking in profits on our shorts last week and cumulative gains of 8% this week on our long positions, the Bayesian Timing System (BTS) wasted no time getting back in the game with another long trigger into the selloff in the morning on May 27.

by Luke Miller - 3 years ago

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