After locking in profits on our shorts last week and cumulative gains of 8% this week on our long positions, the Bayesian Timing System (BTS) wasted no time getting back in the game with another long trigger into the selloff in the morning on May 27.
Bearish Bayesian probabilities (BPs) are still stronger than bullish ones, with a 72% probability the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues to stall in the 290s and begins a descent back to at least the low 270s.
The Bayesian Timing System (BTS) still indicates we are in a trading range between the 310s and 330s on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) for several more weeks, and we presently find ourselves near the top end of this range now.
As the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has bounced to the highest resistance band near 332, the probabilities have continued to indicate this bounce has weak internals and a trip back down to 315-320 continues to be the most likely outcome over the next 1-2 weeks.
Keeping an open mind to the dynamic, non-linear nature of markets is one of the specialties of the Bayesian Timing System (BTS), and near the low of the day on January 14, the signals in SPY flipped to long.
On December 17, the signals changed to neutral, as Path 2 discussed below witnessed a quick rate-of-change at the micro level. As such, the Bayesian Timing System stayed true to its process, locked in profits, and went to the sidelines to re-assess.
With the market barely moving, the Bayesian Timing Signal (BTS) is presently neutral after locking in profits last week, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) dances between 308-314. Bayesian analysis still leans bullish with SPY targets in the 330s after this consolidation completes.
by Luke Miller - 1 year ago
Free 15-Day Trial
• S&P 500 Wave Analysis • Gold, Silver, Oil & US Dollar Reports • Stocks, Options, Cryptocurrencies & more • Live Coaching & Webinars
Here is an End of the Year THANK YOU, Avi and EWT staff! I joined EWT this year in April, and was really despondent in how my retirement plans and trading account had been performing. I have been trading commodities and stocks for 30 years, and could never keep what I would make in the market. Never. Always gave it all back, and then some. The desire of my heart was to trade for a living, and finally, after 30 years, I can see this as a possibility! I switched to a self-directed 401K at work, and started trading a personal account with you all in April. My accounts are up 320% since April thanks to you! Until then, I was looking at possibly not being able to retire for a long time, but not now. I never knew when to get out of a position. I was always wrong. If I hung on it went down. If I closed out the position, it went up. I was ALWAYS wrong...so frustrated. I owe my success all to you, Avi, and EWT, and the EWT members. SO from the bottom of my heart...THANKS so much. I really appreciate you all!! I have tears of happiness because of you all. HAPPY NEW YEAR, and happy trading in 2021. I am really looking forward to it, for once!
""Wheat" - Trading Room" - 2020-12-30
What I love about EW is you know when things go wrong and you know when to get out of a position at minimal damage...it has helped so much in my RR work
""Kenneth_Aydt" - Trading Room" - 2019-10-03
The relief of EWT philosophy on investing has been such a gift (besides being extremely profitable) that I have to say this is the most enjoyable service offered anywhere on the internet and probably the best investment I have ever made. Thanks Avi.
""Talapus" - Trading Room" - 2020-01-27
Avi et al, this site is amazing! I have been dabbling in trading for several years and recently discovered EWT. With your help (including the great support staff) and all the patrons, my success rate has improved tremendously. I am a conservative trader and rarely more than 60% invested but this year with EWT's help I have increased my trading account by 164% YTD. I am humbled and very grateful for all the members that freely share their insights with the goal of helping others. Thank you all.
""tom99577" - Trading Room" - 2020-12-17
“Lyn Alden [is] by far the top emerging macro analyst from 2020. Incredible addition to the EWT team.
""UKTR" - Twitter" - 2021-01-13
I'm having my best year ever! Up 70%. My thanks is 100% to this site. The analysts and members. My wife thinks I'm a genius because of you guys/gals. Best 3k I spend a year. She wants me to spend more on you!
""tightlines" - Trading Room" - 2020-12-17
I have been investing and trading for 25 years and you guys are 'the best' I have ever seen. Great methodologies and great people using them!
""saminvests" - Trading Room" - 2021-01-07
My 401K money has been protected during this, and I'm making money in little chunks in my trading accounts. And that is all thanks to Avi, HD, Garrett, Zac, and so many great members here. Sincerely, my account and my family say a huge THANK YOU to you all.
""Franchise"" - Trading Room2020-03-16
After this week's action and watching how Avi & company nailed the piss out of so many moves, you can't argue with me anymore about the efficacy of EW. . . Just amazing to have a methodology that works so well PLUS the guidance from Avi.
""Bcindc"" - Seeking Alpha2020-03-09
I had been trading for 25 years when I joined this sight. I had a lot of ups. And a lot of downs. But I have been here almost 3 years and learned so much that I am having a lot of ups and not so much downs; less risk, more reward. This is not to brag, but to pay tribute to the great team of analysts, and great members here.