After holding the 61.8 retrace yesterday the Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ) moved lower in what, like the ES, can count as a leading diagonal to the downside opening the door to this having put in a top for the wave ii/b at the 12,098 level.
Here's an example of a setup and trigger today in NQ. Here we had the confluence of 4 Fibonacci price relationships that came in at the 11840-48 area. This is called a Fibonacci Cluster. After a trigger fired off on the 233 tick chart, we had an entry around 118.68 or so. The risk was defined either below the low at 11847 OR below the low end of the zone which was 11840. We saw a 105.50 point rally from this 5 minute chart setup.
After moving higher the previous week, this past week saw the DXY once again break down and now retest the lows that were struck back in the September, putting us in a very key spot moving into this week.
My read on the market is that we are nearing some kind of low within the next few days, with somewhere in the 3150/3050 area on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) forming at least a short-term low for this downtrend.
Liquidity UpdateDuring the worst part of March, I began a series of liquidity updates to provide info about forced selling pressure on assets (stocks, bonds, gold, etc). Due to the global USD shortage, margin pressure, and other things, there were clear signs of forced selling pressure back then. It was bad enough not only to affect stocks, but also gold and long-duration Treasuries (and for Treasuries, that's very rare). I reduced those updates as liquidity became more abundant. This week, however, renewed some (but not all) of the issues.
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""Franchise"" - Trading Room2020-03-16
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""Blue Chip Investing"" - Seeking Alpha2020-04-12
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