Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Tick Tock - Market Analysis for Jun 5th, 2025

Yea, I know it sounds like a broken record already, but after being in the same general region now for basically the last month, it is still only a matter of time before the market provides us with the standard pullback we will often see.  Can we extend a bit higher first?  Of course.  So, for now, our micro support is the 5920SPX region.  And, below that is the all important 5767SPX which is highlighted on the 60-minute chart quite prominently.  Below that level provides the confirmation of the pullback and the structure of that pullback will likely tell us what to do over the rest of this year and beyond.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Silver Stretching Its Legs

As I just posted in the trading room as an alert, silver is finally trying to stretch its legs.  But, I still think the evidence suggests this is a final move in this rally rather than the start of a new one.  As I noted in the live video yesterday morning to the full-time membership, the last consolidation just below us really counts best as a triangle.  And, we know that a triangle most commonly takes shape in either a 4th wave or a b-wave.  That means that the move out of a triangle is most often the final move in a trending move whether it is a 5th wave or a c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Market Sees A Day Of Consolidation

Today, the market consolidated in a tight range near yesterday’s highs. This type of price action often precedes further upside, but confirmation requires a decisive break above the 6007 level. Until that happens, the market remains at an inflection point. On a broader scale, not much has changed since the weekend update. The primary view is that we are in a topping region, likely either in a topping region for the blue wave a or red wave b.  The potential for that larger wave b top to develop, as outlined in the red count, will depend on the structure of the next meaningful pullback.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Continuation of the bullish path

Futures drifted lower following yesterday's close, pulling back from the 5948.50 - 5971.25 ES fib resistance cited in yesterday's EOD update. However, price found support at the overnight low where it should have as wave (4) of a potential leading diagonal off of Friday's low. Price has since been trending higher following the open this morning, making a higher high compared to yesterday's high which satisfies expectations for a potential 5 waves up from Friday's low.If price has completed 5 waves up from Friday's low as wave 1 of c, then a near-term pullback as wave 2 of c should follow with 5938.25 - 5905.50 ES as retrace support and the target range for wave 2.
by Garrett Patten - 6 days ago

Path for higher remains intact

Following the initial dip lower this morning, the market has been trending higher since with price now clearing the high made on Friday. This action increases the probability that Friday's low completed wave b of (v), but the market is not completely out of the woods yet. The next step to confirm the immediately bullish blue path is to fill out either 5 waves up from Friday's low or breakout above last week's high. Otherwise, there remains some risk that this bounce off of Friday's low is corrective as at least wave B of a wider flat b-wave shown in red. 5948.50 - 5971.25 is immediate fib resistance above that should hold if red wave B of b.
by Garrett Patten - 1 week ago

Another 5 Waves - Market Analysis for May 29th, 2025

With the spike overnight, the market has taken out the high struck yesterday, which made it clear that this 5-wave structure had not yet completed.  So, my view is that the overnight high completed the 5-wave rally off the wave 4 low on May 23rd, and that we have potentially and finally begun that pullback I have wanted to see.Yet, while we clearly are very extended to the upside and we have a very full count, what we do not have is confirmation that the high for this rally is likely in place.  We will need to break down below the wave 4 low (5767SPX) to confirm that the bigger pullback I still expect is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Expecting Lower Prices In Metals

Nothing has changed in the bigger picture in my metals analysis.  But, the paths to the lower levels is still an open question.Starting with gold, I can now count 5 waves down in a leading diagonal to begin the c-wave lower. But, we really would need to bounce from the 3285 region in the futures (Aug contract) in order to retain this path.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Levitates To Top of Resistance

With today’s high, we saw a spike and reversal at the top of our resistance box on the ES chart.  And, I think this is a good marker for us.I would say that as long as we remain below today’s high, I will view it as the top of the [c] wave of wave ii. But, I cannot say that the decline off that high is a clear 5-wave decline.  So, we will need more information about the decline structure should we head lower before we can view this count as a high probability.Alternatively, should the market be able to exceed today’s high, then it begins to suggest that the wave 5 has not likely completed.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Moves Up Into Resistance

We saw the market continue to push higher today, moving into the key retrace resistance zone for the potential initiation move down that began last week. As long as price holds beneath this zone, my primary expectation remains for a downside resolution in the coming days. A sustained move through resistance, however, would open the door to one more push to a higher high before any significant top is in place.Zooming in on the ES chart, I continue to favor counting five waves down into last week's low. The bounce off that low has thus far only developed as a three-wave structure, and we remain below the 5937–5967 resistance zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Testing Key Resistance

We opened lower today, only to see a retrace higher into the afternoon session. At this point, the move off Monday’s high into this morning’s low still counts best as a three-wave decline, but the market remains capped beneath a key resistance level. As such, we cannot yet rule out the potential for this structure to develop into a full five-wave decline, opening the door to a more significant top having been struck.As I’ve been noting in prior updates, the resolution of this initial structure off the high is critical.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago
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