Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Competing Micro Counts - Market Analysis for Sep 22nd, 2025

With the market moving higher this week as we generally expected from the weekend analysis, we have two competing wave counts into this rally.First, when we scrub the ES chart, we have seen quite a bit of overlap since the a-wave topped.  So, I am surmising that we have a running triangle for the b-wave, as shown.  This is not a common pattern, but definitely no where near as uncommon as the w-x-y with a y-wave triangle with which I am struggling in gold. But, it seems to make the most sense for the b-wave in the ES.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Setting Up For More Upside

With the market holding over support yesterday, it did disappoint me in that it did not provide us with the typical overlap of waves i and iv within a diagonal, as it came up a few points short of the support box (which begins at the top of wave i). So, this provided a teachable moment for me today, as I outlined the following:“I have added some "color" to the chart for the alternative.  When a main wave - such as wave iii in this case - does not reach its ideal target, sometimes we see the corrective b-wave in the ensuing correction strike the target that was missed.  That is my alternative.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Next Few Weeks Are Key In Metals

While there is potential that silver has seen a near term top, GDX may still have one more push higher, and gold is kinda in between these two potentials.Starting with silver, while the upside really does look incomplete at the last high, I have to recognize the potential that it may have topped in a wave (i) pursuant to the count I am tracking on the 144-minute chart.  But, we will still need a break down below the 41 level to make this a higher probability.  For now, I have added a proposed path for the coming weeks.  Clearly, I will adjust it as we get more information. But, as long as we remain below 44.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Fighting It Out

Today’s session saw the market drift lower into the FOMC, testing the upper end of support on the ES chart. So far, that zone has held as we head into the final hour of trading. As we’ve been noting, the structure would look cleaner with another push higher to complete wave v on both the ES and NQ. As long as support continues to hold, that case remains on the table.However, should ES break below support, it would serve as an early signal that this move off of the Sept 2nd low has already topped, coming up short of the ideal pattern. While intraday swings have been notable, our broader outlook remains unchanged from recent updates.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Another Diagonal - Market Analysis for Sep 16th, 2025

I cannot ever remember a time where I have seen so many diagonals within diagonals as compared to what we are seeing today in the SPX.  And, the current structure seems to want to push even higher with a bigger diagonal, as I outlined recently.With the market moving through the resistance noted in the futures, I am forced to assume that this last 5-wave structure is taking shape as a larger diagonal, as outlined in the 15-minute futures chart.  This means that we would need to break down below the wave ii in the 6508ES region in order to invalidate this potential.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Respecting Resistance, But May Not Be For Much Longer

As I wrote the in weekend update, as long as the market respects the 1.00 extension in ES around the 6680ES region, then we can consider this 5th wave as completed.  That means that we “should” see the market turn down hard to signal a diagonal has completed before a break out through 6680ES.However, this morning, the market ran up to that resistance, hit its head on that resistance a number of times, but has yet to indicate that a diagonal has completed.  It seems that the market is simply consolidating below resistance, which often means it is will attempt to break out through that resistance.So, the parameters remain the same.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Next Target Reached - Market Analysis for Sep 11th, 2025

Today, the market has now reached the target we set once the market made it clear it was heading to new all-time highs last week. And, as you can see from the attached 5-minute SPX chart, we have reached the upper portion of the larger degree target box, which is where I was calculating this current extension was pointing us towards.But, just because we have struck a target does not necessarily mean the market is going to stop.   We have seen some ridiculous extensions these last several months, which really reminds me of the early 2020 time period.  So, just because the market has reached our target does not mean it is time to short.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Market Testing Micro Support

The market opened higher today but drifted lower into the afternoon session. While we did register a higher high, which could represent a potentially complete pattern, price action remains firmly above even the uppermost support levels. As such, we do not yet have a signal of a local top.As long as support holds, further direct upside extensions remain in play. However, a break of support would provide an early indication that a local top may be in place. To confirm a more meaningful top, lower support levels would still need to be taken out. At this point, the market remains well above those key levels.On the ES chart, upper micro support currently comes in at the 6519 level.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Testing Micro Resistance

he market opened flat today, with a minor corrective pullback in the morning followed by a steady recovery into the afternoon session. Prices are now trading near the highs of the day and pressing into the lower end of the micro retrace resistance zone from last week’s decline.A sustained push through this region would provide the first confirmation that the market is ready to extend higher toward new highs. On the other hand, if resistance holds and we turn lower in a clear five-wave structure, that would leave the door open for at least a local top to be in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

The Market Hasn’t Made a Decision Yet

Today’s session was largely uneventful, with the market trading flat and showing little follow-through. As such, not much has changed from the prior analysis. From a structural standpoint, the pattern would look cleaner if we were to see another push to a higher high to further develop a potential Ending Diagonal off the 9/2 low. However, today’s lethargic action offered no clear signal that we’re ready to accelerate higher just yet.At the same time, the case could be made that the pattern is already complete at current levels. With that in mind, I’ll be watching Friday’s low closely as an important downside pivot.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago
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