Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 25th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Is The b-Wave Pullback Complete?

The market rally thus far today counts well as a corrective a-b-c structure, which would suggest that we can see another leg lower in a (c) wave decline before this correction completes. If the (b) wave is complete, then we have an ideal target for the (c) wave which coincides with the .764 retracement around 7640ES, which also represents an (a)=(c) decline from the high we just struck.Of course, there are a couple of other reasonable possibilities that I want you to keep in the back of your mind.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 24th, 2026

With the continued weakness in metals, I wanted to put out a quick update.As long as GDX holds 91.19, the green (ii) is still alive but on life support right now due to the depth and size of this potential wave (ii).  I have also added a pivot on the chart which is quite important in the near term.  A break down below the pivot places pressure down in a big way to the blue wave (ii) box.  Ideally, I would like to see a bounce from this region.  If it is corrective, then we have to prepare for a  drop to the blue box - or potentially lower.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market Pulls Back, But The Pressure Remains Up As Long As Support Holds

Today we saw the market move lower after moving higher on Monday and consolidating on Tuesday. Avi noted the potential for this pullback in yesterday's update, and today it seems to be taking shape. With that said, as long as the structure of this move down remains corrective in nature and we are able to hold over support, the simplest path still remains higher before breaking down under last week's low. If, however, we begin to break support and do so in five waves, then it would open the door for a break of last week's low. There are some issues with that potential path, so for now, and as long as support holds, the near-term pressure will remain up.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Deeper Correction? - Market Analysis for Sep 23rd, 2026

With the metals turning down today, it has opened the door to a deeper correction. Let’s start with GDXAs the market was rallying yesterday, I warned not to get too bullish just yet as it has not proven its clear bullish intent just yet. In fact, I noted as we were hitting yesterday’s highs that “[i]f anyone wants a little protection in GDX, this is a nice place for it. . .between here and 101.83.”Since that point, I can count a 5-wave decline into this morning’s low. This now opens the door to a drop to the next support region noted on the 8-minute GDX chart, which represents the .500-.618 retracement of the prior rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Tracking The Action Carefully

While this update is based upon the GDX, it can equally apply to the metals themselves as well, and I will update that tomorrow.But, focusing on the GDX right now, the market has now moved up over the wave (i) high.  And, in order for it to really get my bullish juices going, we would now need to follow through over 101.83 to invalidate the potential for the yellow count.  But, until that happens, the yellow count is still alive and must be respected and tracked.Moreover, there is also one more potential I am now forced to track and that is a wider wave (2), the path for which is now shown in blue and with question marks.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Path For Yellow - Market Analysis for Sep 22nd, 2026

As I noted earlier today, the market has taken out resistance, which forces me into the yellow count, as the blue count has invalidated. That means we are now tracking a diagonal off the wave 2 low for wave i of 3. And, within that diagonal, we are in wave (v).Remember that the huge majority of diagonals develop with 3-wave sub-structures. That means that this will likely be an a-b-c rally. So, as I noted on the attached 5-mintue chart, either the a-b is already done, or we have just begun the b-wave pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 22nd, 2026

I can now reasonably move down to two wave counts.  Of course, we could get another curve ball today, but for now, these two scenarios make the most sense to me.Clearly, the first is the yellow count we have been tracking for quite some time now.  And, it "should" carry us to the 7900-8000SPX region before we see another larger bout of weakness.  The second would suggest a major top, and that is in red.  But, in order to begin a confirmation of that path, we would need to break down below the yellow wave i in the 7233SPX region.Again, the market could still give us another curve ball without getting us to higher highs.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Above All Retrace Resistance

The instinct to look higher this morning was the correct one, but even I underestimated the strength of today's move over the regular trading hours session. Price is now above the .764 retrace as the last fib retracement measured from the decline off of the August high, and within a stone's throw of a new all-time high.Therefore, the probability of this rally off of last week's low being a corrective b-wave still has diminished further, and continues to drop off the closer price comes to a retest of the August high. As noted in the afternoon alert, a break below 7790 is needed at a minimum to put any immediate downside path back on track.
by Garrett Patten - 6 days ago

Metals Are Certainly Trying

While the metals have certainly provided us with a nice pullback thus far, I do not yet have enough evidence to strongly suggest that the pullback is complete and a 3rd wave rally has yet begun.Starting with the 60-minute gold chart, you will see that we bottomed this past week just over the support box. And, off that low, while we do not have an ideal Fibonacci Pinball 5-wave structure, we can make out a leading diagonal. Yes, I know those are not terribly reliable.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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