Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

At Support - Market Analysis for Feb 3rd, 2023

Folks, we have been soooooo patient in looking for a pullback in metals, and now it seems to have provided us one. The question now is how deep?Well, GDX seems to be the clearest. If we hold over 30.50, and begin an impulsive rally over 31.85, then the alt 2 will likely be in place, and we will be tracking the first wave of wave 3 and getting set up for a major break out. But below that, and we should see the fuller pullback.GC is the same. A sustained break of 1869 opens the door to a bigger wave (2) which can be 100 points lower.Silver, overall, same point . . if the complex breaks support, silver will likely join in a bigger wave 2.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Gonna Keep This Simple

While I am not a fan of how we got here in the micro structure, as the structure for the series of 1’s and 2’s to this point was quite less than ideal, the market has pushed us into a Fibonacci Pinball structure for a potential waves 3, 4 and 5 to complete the rally to 4300+ we have been expecting ever since we bottomed in October.So, let me make the current analysis very simple. Assuming we are in a larger degree wave 3 within the [c] wave, then the structure breaks down that we are now completing wave [3] of [iii] of iii of 3. If you look at the 5-minute SPX chart, you will see that annotation.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Can We Finally See A REAL Pullback In Metals?

With the market having the opportunity to prove its ready to break out again, and failing to do so, it suggests to me that we can finally see more of a reasonable pullback. Let me show you what I mean.The GDX has been my biggest issue. As you can see, I am viewing the current action as striking a 3-wave b-wave top today, and the decline being wave i of the c-wave of 2. Of course, this could still be a shallow wave 2, which I am viewing as my alternative, but I think silver suggests this decline can take us further down into our support.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Feb 2nd, 2023

It does not look like we are going to see an initial 5 wave rally off the recent low. Therefore, we may actually be developing a much better pullback over the coming week or two. As long as we remain below today's high, I am looking for more of a pullback in GC and GDX.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Are We Setting Up Another Major Move Higher?

As I say all the time, price is more important to me than anything else when I do my analysis. So, while the technicals still look like they need more of a reset, price MAY be suggesting we are starting the next bigger move higher. So, how will we know.Well, GC has now pushed above the prior high. Could that be all of the wave ii we get? It is absolutely possible, and will become probable if we get the next [i][ii] upside trigger. As you can see, we still have not completed the next 5 wave move off the low.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

My Hand Is Forced

While there are a number of “issues” I have with this more aggressive and immediate bullish count, the market action has forced my hand in having to accept it – for now. In very simple terms, as long as we are over 4070/75SPX, then I have to look up from here.If you listened to my live video this morning, then you would have heard the issues that I have with this immediate break out set up. But, due to taking out last week’s high, I have no choice but to adopt it.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is The Market Ready To Launch Or WIll It's Liftoff Be Put On Hold

Overnight we saw the SPX futures move lower before finding support at the 61.8 retrace level of the move up off of the 1/25 low. Since holding that level we have moved higher throughout the day and into the time of this writing. This action is still keeping the more immediate bullish count as shown in green in play for the time being and allowing for this to see a more immediate push to new highs. We do however still have some work to do before we can confirm that we have indeed put a bottom in and are simply not moving higher in a wave b retracement higher as laid out per the blue count.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Failure To Launch Increases The Risk Of A Deeper Pullback

Last week we saw the market continue to push to new highs breaking through some very key pivot levels on its way to what was looking like a clean break to new highs -- but right at the close on Friday, Mr. Market had other ideas.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Breaks Up Once Again But Is It Ready To Breakout?

The market pushed higher again, exceeding the previous high reached earlier this week. This continued upward movement suggests that the more immediate bullish count, as outlined on the smaller degree timeframes, is becoming more likely. However, the market is still trading under a number of key resistance levels that need to be broken to provide final confirmation that the market is ready to move towards the 4300 region.To gain a better understanding of the market's current state, it may be more appropriate to focus on the 60-minute chart as the parameters on this chart are clearer and less ambiguous compared to those on the smaller degree timeframes.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Time To Throw In The Towel?

Based upon much of what I am seeing, I really do not have much more room before I have to give up on the potential pullback I want to see in metals.As you can see from the attached GC chart, we are pushing on the top of the pivot. Should we break out through the pivot, it will then become our support, and I have to view us as being in wave iii. But, I just do not have enough trust in the structure to take aggressive positions without a reasonable 2nd wave in place.You see, 2nd waves are our markers for our larger structures. That is what our Fib Pinball structures are built upon.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago