Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Sideways Today - Market Analysis for Nov 25th, 2020

Today’s action has not really added anything to the information we have about the market. So, I am going to keep this rather simple.As long as the SPX remains over 3610SPX, it still retains potential to push higher one more time to complete wave v in the diagonal we are tracking.However, once we break below 3610SPX, then it is likely we are in the wave 2/[2] pullback. I want to wish all of you a very happy, healthy and safe Thanksgiving holiday. Take the time off to appreciate your families as well as your good health.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Amazing Bullish Action – But, WHEN Will It Continue?

The market just continues to push higher and higher despite any real pullbacks. Today’s move over 2623SPX has certainly put a potentially bullish spin on the market yet again, and well before I expected it to occur.If you remember, my expectation is that we will likely see a very bullish 2021, but I expected some reasonable pullback over the last few months. But, if wave [ii] is already done, then we only saw a .236 retrace, and if wave [2] of [iii] is done, then we only saw a .382 retracement in that pullback. Both are shallow indeed.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Frustrating, Aint It!?

For the last 3 trading days, we have been going completely sideways. And, there are several ways to view this consolidation, as I outlined over the weekend.But, as to where we currently reside, the bears are fast running out of room. Today’s high either marked the completion of a 4th wave triangle, or the high for wave 2 in an ending diagonal for the larger [c] wave down in wave [2] as per my primary analysis presented over the weekend.At this point in time, I would say that the blue count of the triangle would be a low probability because it would have to be considered as an expanding triangle, and they are VERY rare.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

How Deep Do We Drop?

With the market breaking down yesterday and unable to complete the next 5-wave structure, it has made it rather clear that we are likely in a [c] wave down. And, our question will be how deep this [c] wave will target?Well, much depends upon the structure of this current decline off the [b] wave high. You see, the SPX and the ES have slightly differing structures during this decline. The ES can count as a complex leading diagonal down, as I have outlined on the attached 5-minute ES chart. If this is the accurate structure, then we should continue a bit higher to complete a wave 2 into our the resistance box noted on the chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Can The Bulls Thread The Needle?

As I posted this morning, as well as in the room, in order for the bulls to be able to take us directly to the 4200-4300SPX region, they will have to thread the needle. And, as I outlined during the last several days, they still need to provide us with a 5th wave higher towards 3660SPX to complete wave 1 of [3] of [iii], followed by a corrective wave 2 pullback, followed by a break back out over the high of wave 1. What this really means is that the bulls have to thread that needle EXACTLY as I have outlined that set up, whereas the bears have multiple ways to still take us lower for more of a pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Pullbacks Are Still Quite Within Reason – But Know Where Melt-up Takes Hold

I want to try to summarize my larger degree thoughts into this update, which I reviewed in my live video this morning, so everyone can be clear of my perspective at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Extremely Bullish Set Up May Be Developing

It was reported that when John Maynard Keyenes was once asked why he changed his opinion on a certain matter, he supposedly responded: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?”Well, to date, I have been seeking a bigger pullback in the market. However, the market has been exceptionally stingy with pullbacks. And, I am seeing warning signs of this potentially happening yet again. So, it is my duty to outline that potential to you, despite my desire for a fuller pullback in the market. You see, my perspective when I provide analysis is to tell you what I see in the market, rather than what I ideally want to see.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

How Bullish Are We REALLY?

With today’s market strength taking us a bit beyond the 3615SPX resistance, we certainly have to consider bullish options if the market should provide more evidence in the coming day or two.My primary count still views the current rally off last week’s low as a [b] wave within wave [2] of [iii] in the SPX. That would suggest we should be starting the [c] wave down in wave [2] quite imminently.But, today’s strength has taken this 3rd wave off last week’s low towards the 1.618 extension from the low struck last week.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Final Test Coming Up

I am posting this update early, because the market is now at an important juncture from which it can make a decision today. So, I want you to see the parameters before we begin to follow through.As I noted yesterday, as long as the market holds below the 3595-3615SPX resistance, we have a downside set up in place. Thus far, that seems to be holding.Ideally, the structure we are developing in the SPX is pointing towards a [c] wave decline to test our support box below, as presented on the 5-minute SPX chart. As long as that support box holds, then we are likely heading to 4000-4100SPX sooner rather than later.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

New Floor In The Market

With the overnight action not providing any follow through for even a potential 5 wave decline off the recent high, the structure to the downside has presented as corrective thus far. This now suggests that the yellow count potential has lost even greater probability in my humble opinion. Therefore, I am now viewing our support for this bull market as likely holding the very shallow wave [ii] we have struck.Moreover, I am also moving up the floor of support for the current rally to the 3335-3400SPX region, as you can see from both chart attached.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago