Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

The Whipsaw Continues - Market Analysis for Oct 22nd, 2020

With the market continuing within its whipsaw regime, I cannot confidently say that we are yet done. With the manner in which the market has rallied off today’s low, I have to begin to assume a low of sorts was struck today. I also want to state that I am not confident in that potential, but there are certainly a number of clues pointing to that potential.So, the question is what type of rally are we dealing with as we look to next week?Well, I am now going to have to bring back the IWM chart, as it is telling a slightly different story than the SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

A Few Additional Thoughts As The Market Grinds

here are several posts I made today that I would like to reprint in this afternoon’s market update:“While our EW/Fib Pinball analysis can hit some crazy targets, one of the benefits of the analysis is that it provides market context. And, I have been trying to explain, there are several things we know from this context:1 - Whipsaw will remain until the market clearly completes 5 waves down and sets up the 1-2 downside structure for the c-wave.2 - Whipsaw will remain as there is still potential for a higher b-wave in dark green.3 - We are LIKELY still setting up the c-wave down into November.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Time For A Bigger Picture Update

With the market thrashing around, it has been telling us that we are likely still well within a larger degree corrective structure. And, from my perspective, it suggests that we are still well within the larger degree wave [ii] pullback that we have been tracking on the 60-minute SPX chart.Yesterday, the market provided us with an important clue as to where we stand within the context of the current market structure. As I have outlined in many prior updates, when we broke below the .
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Two Further Pieces Of Advice

I wanted to add another update this evening for two additional pieces of advice.First, due to the overlapping structure, I still have no clarity as to how wave 1 down in green will take shape towards the 3300SPX region. I think the manner in which I have it now presented on my 5-minute chart is a bit more likely. It suggests that we are potentially in wave iii in the leading diagonal for that wave 1. That would give us a target around 3380SPX for wave iii of wave 1 down. But, again, I cannot say this is a high probability expectation due to the overlapping nature of the decline thus far.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

b-Wave Likely Done

With the break down below Thursday’s low, I think the probabilities have now swung to the potential that the b-wave has completed.I want start this update by noting that the drop off last week’s high is not really a clear impulsive structure. And, c-waves are normally standard impulsive structures. So, I am potentially viewing the initial decline off last week’s high as a leading diagonal, with today dropping us in the wave [v] of wave i of a larger degree wave 1 off the b-wave high.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Is Just Teasing Us

Don’t you love it when we are watching the 3439SPX level for a strong signal that the b-wave has topped, and the market bottoms today at . . . yup . . . 3440SPX. (Sigh)So, lets go through what we know, and try to make a determination as to where we are.First, we know from our Fibonacci Pinball structure that if the market rallies to the 1.236 extension in a potential wave [3] of iii, it “should” hold the .764 extension as support before rallying further. Well, the 3466SPX level was the .764 extension in our case, and the market broke below that today. However, we also know from our Fibonacci Pinball structure that should the market break below the .
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Corrective – So Far - Market Analysis for Oct 14th, 2020

As I have been saying since last week, depending upon how the market drops from the high we strike this week will be instructive as to whether the market will be heading higher in the near term – in either a more extended b-wave, or potentially even attempting to complete the yellow wave structure over the coming weeks.Thus far, the pullback is looking quite corrective. In fact, if this continues as an a-b-c pullback as it looks now, it certainly does not project to break below the 3466SPX support, barring some unusual extensions lower.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Pullback In Progress - Market Analysis for Oct 13th, 2020

With the market pulling back from yesterday’s high, the question we will need to answer over the coming days is what does this pullback represent?If you have been following the progression of our analysis over the last week, then you would recognize that this pullback is either wave [4] in yellow, or it is starting the c-wave down in green.In order for this to be the c-wave down in green, we need to see a more impulsive pattern develop off the high, and I cannot say that I am quite there yet.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

The Market Does Not Care Who Wins The Election

Earlier this week, I published an article entitled “Sentiment Speaks: This Is What The Market Is Saying About Trump's Re-Election.” Within the article, I attempted to outline the probabilities that Trump would get re-elected based upon historical data (presented by Bob Prechter) as suggested by market sentiment.While I began that article noting that the analysis does not present a political assessment or opinion, most of you took the opportunity to do otherwise.I found it quite interesting that almost every person who commented felt the need to offer their assessment as to who was going to win the election, and much of it was based upon their feelings of personal bias.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Impressive Rally - Market Analysis for Oct 12th, 2020

Today’s continuation rally in the SPX is certainly quite impressive. In fact, the market took us directly to the [a]=[c] target in the SPX today, and even exceeded it by a few points – SO FAR.So, does the fact that we rallied here in a hurry change my perspective?Absolutely not.You see, we have seen many strong b-wave rallies throughout the years, and history shows us that some of the strongest rallies seen in the market occur during corrective waves. In fact, the b-wave seen in the SPX into the February 2020 high was the largest I have ever encountered in my professional career. But, as we know, that is not truly dispositive on its own.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago