Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Markets Move Sharply Lower Once Again But Fails To See Final Follow Through Into The Close

Yesterday we saw the market push sharply higher into the key overhead resistance zone that we had laid out in the charts last week. Today we saw a failure at that zone with the market moving sharply lower this morning. This sharp move down opened the door for the market to have topped in all of the wave 4 as we have laid out in green on the ES chart.

by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Market Pushes Higher But Is Still Sitting Under Key Overhead Resistance

After moving down into the ideal target zone for the wave 3 of c overnight and early this morning we saw the market push sharply higher with the ES up over 1.5% at the time of this writing. Although the move up is quite sharp we do still only have three waves up off of the lows and the pattern to the downside still counts much better as an incomplete three-wave move rather than the five that we need to finish off a wave c.

by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

One Or Two More?

I am putting this update out early, since we are now hitting a target for wave 3 down in what I am counting as a c-wave decline which began on September 13.As you can see from the attached 5-minute ES chart, the market is hitting the wave 3 target box. The ideal target is the 3600ES region, which is the 1.618 extension down, so we can still subdivide lower as long as we remain below 3690ES. The question now is if this is going to complete the entire c-wave down (as per the blue count), or if we still have another 4-5 to complete – which is my primary count down here.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Pressure Remains Down - Market Analysis for Sep 26th, 2022

Currently 3757.50 - 3789 is main overhead resistance that would otherwise need to break in order to open the door to anything more immediately bullish.

by Garrett Patten - 1 week ago

Market At A Key Inflection Point But Pressure Still Remains Down

After seeing a sharp move down yesterday that then carried over into the after-hour session we say the markets attempt to push higher this morning only to break down once again to see lower lows. While the SPX held up better than the other indexes with the Russell 2000 Small Cap index being hit the hardest of the three trading down close to 2.5% at the lows. This continued push lower is still very much leaving the pressure to the downside with me still watching the red count as an impulse down off of the 4177 high as my primary path forward.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Close, But No Cigar

I wish I could say that something has changed in the picture for the metals this week, but, unfortunately, I would be lying if I did. As it stands now, absolutely nothing has changed since we have no evidence of a bottom being struck. Yet, it seems that we are inching our way closer.In silver, we still have no evidence of a bottom being struck, as we cannot even claim a leading diagonal off the low yet. We still need to push higher one more time to even consider that potential.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Big Swings In The Market Post Fed But Downside Risks Remain

Today we saw the market open higher ahead of the FMOC announcement on what was tracing out to be a fairly clearly corrective move up off of the lows in the form of an ending diagonal. This was giving the market a setup to move sharply lower post-announcement as is typical when an ED completes its pattern. This was in fact exactly what occurred just after the 2 pm announcement. What followed that sharp drop however was a series of large intraday swings with the market then retracing the entire drop post-fed in very short order then dropping lower once again into the final hour of trading.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Parameters In Place For A Continued Push Lower

After retracing higher yesterday and overnight the market turned lower right at the key 61.8 retrae level from the move down off of the 3979 level and has now broken below the previous low at the 3845 level. This is still all very supportive of the red count being the primary path forward as this price action is fitting within our expected fib pinball guidelines quite well. So while we still have yet to fully confirm the red count with a break under the larger degree pivot and 100ext below there is still nothing to suggest that we are forming a bottom just yet and as long a we continue to remain under support the pressure will remain down in the markets.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Markets Pull Back But Downside Risk Still In Place

After moving down overnight completing what is a fairly clear five-wave move down off of the 3979 high, we saw the market retrace higher after hitting the upper end of the pivot zone for what can be counted as the wave i of 3 under the red count. This retrace is so far suggestive that we are indeed following the red count as it occurred exactly where we would expect the wave i of a larger wave 3 down to occur under our fib pinball guidelines.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Risk Continues To The Downside As The Market Is Unable To Get Up Off Of The Floor

Today the market was unable to break out over even the lower end of the overhead resistance level to give a reprieve to this sharp move lower that we have seen this week. That inability to breakout has left the market sitting in a fairly precarious spot in which we have to be quite cautious of a continued "waterfall" type of accelerated move lower This is due to the fact that while far from ideal we do technically have a 1-2 setup sitting on the board as I am showing in red on the ES chart.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

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