Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Getting Closer To 4440

With todays push higher, I am viewing the structure as completing wave 3 of [c] of b, as seen on the attached 5-minute chart. While the ES chart is slightly different than the SPX chart, I think both substantiate the primary view that we are now only completing the wave 3 of the [c] wave. That means my next expectation is to see a 4th wave pullback. That 4th wave really should hold over the 4390SPX region, and then set us up for a 5th wave higher high into the 4440SPX region later this week.So, overall, nothing has really changed from the weekend update. But, the market just seems as though it is trying to complete wave 3 of [c] today.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Higher Is Becoming Likely

As I outlined yesterday, if the market is able to take us through the 4351ES region, we have a very reasonable 5-wave rally structure. That means that it is reasonable to assume that we can see higher in the coming week. The question now is a matter of path.My primary count still remains that this is a 5-wave [a] wave within the b-wave I am tracking. But, in order to confirm this potential, we need to see a [b] wave pullback in the coming days. We need to break down below 4340SPX to suggest that the [b] wave is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

All Of b Or 4440SPX Still On Target?

Earlier this week, I sent out an update entitled "Tracking Wave 4." Within that update, I noted that the market had a minimum completion for a 5-wave decline in the [c] wave of the a-wave we were tracking once we broke below 4287SPX. In other words, we were looking for a bottoming, and a rally to begin in the very near term.Clearly, it did not take long, as the next day we took back all the decline we experienced on Monday. But, at the time we were sitting at the lows, I outlined the following:“Normally, the b-wave target is generally the .618 retracement of the a-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Yesterday's Sell-Off Erased But Market Still Not Out Of The Woods

Today we saw the entire drop yesterday erased as we pushed sharply higher today. This sharp move higher has confirmed that we have indeed struck at least a local bottom in the form of a wave a of a larger wave 4. As we near the close we do however still only have three waves up off of the lows and are approaching a key resistance area on the smaller degree timeframes and from the move up off of the lows.The 4325 level on the ES represents the 61.8 retrace level of the entire move down off of the highs and the 4329 level is the 138.2 ext of the initial move up off of the lows. This 138.2 -176.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Tracking Wave 4 - Market Analysis for Jul 19th, 2021

With today’s breakdown, it is quite likely that wave 3 is done, albeit a bit shy of the ideal minimum target in the 4440SPX region. But, when in a bull market, I will always give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls on all set ups, as it is . . well . . a bull market. So, clearly, this was not my preference at this time, yet I have to adjust based upon price. So, while we likely still have higher levels to attain later this year, we will first have to navigate this 4th wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

3 Done - Market Analysis for Jul 19th, 2021

I just wanted to send out a quick update to the entire membership to note that the pre-market action suggests that wave 3 is done a bit shy of the minimum ideal target for a 3rd wave of this degree. Our next support below us is the 4255-70SPX region, which can hold us to complete the a-wave of wave 4. But, keep in mind that if we do hold that support, it is not unlikely to see the b-wave of wave 4 strike the ideal minimum target of 4440SPX region, as I have been noting.Clearly, this was not my preference going into the weekend. But, with the market breaking the 1-2 upside set up, I am forced to adjust.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sentiment Speaks: A Decade of Success

This article will be published on Seeking Alpha in the coming week:I am quite astonished when I now look back and realize it has been a full decade since I began penning technical analysis articles on Seeking Alpha. Needless to say, when I began writing about Elliott Wave analysis on the fundamentally-based Seeking Alpha platform, not only did I get strong push-back from the editorial staff, the general readership seriously looked down upon it. And, I think that is a mild description based upon the feedback I received. Yet, I did not let that deter me in my goals.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Providing Another Buying Opportunity

Today we saw the markets continue to push lower giving us a deeper and more standard pull back into the support zone for the micro wave 2 that we have been watching for several days and is shown on the 10min SPX chart. At the time of this writing, we are currently sitting just over the 50% retrace level which comes in at the 4340 level. We do however still need to see a full five-wave move to the upside to give us initial confirmation that we have indeed struck a bottom. That should then be followed up with a push back up over the 4393 high and then through the 61.8-76.4 extension pivot level of the wave 1.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Is The SPX Ready For Liftoff?

Overnight we saw the ES pullback again only to get bough in the early pre-open hours. That buying continued at the open and into the early morning regular trading session. This pushed both the ES and SPX to slight new highs but we were unable to sustain a break out higher before turning back lower again in the mid-morning. The market then found a bottom just as the lunch hour began after which point we saw both the SPX and ES give us a smaller degree five-wave move up off of the lows which was followed by a smaller degree corrective move that was then also bought as pushed higher into the EOD.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

SPX Fills Out The Pattern With Another Push Higher

Last night and today were almost an exact repeat of what had occurred on Sunday and during yesterday's trading session. This was due to the extension higher that we saw on both the ES and SPX. Since that extension likely counts as part of one single five-wave move up off of the lows we are still looking for a pullback for the smaller degree wave 2 as shown in green on the charts.So with that, we still are watching two main paths from here with the primary being that we are in a wave 1 of a larger wave (iii) of 3 up and the alternative being that we have completed all of wave 3 shown in yellow.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago