Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Bouncing in a B-wave

The market followed through higher today, following expectations for a larger b-wave bounce filling out off last week's low, and price currently finishing up what should be wave (a) of b. Based on that expectation, 5123 is now the next fib resistance above, otherwise a break below 5080 is needed as confirmation of a local top and the start to wave (b) of b. The alternative is that price is further along in the circle b-wave and attempting to complete it sooner and a more direct fashion. That potential would become more likely if this move stretches all the way up to the .500 retrace at 5145 or the .618 retrace at 5189. Any turn down sooner will be assumed corrective as wave (b) of b.

by Garrett Patten - 3 days ago

Nighttime Update - Market Analysis for Apr 18th, 2024

The market is now extending a bit further than I expected at the close. While we have no confirmation that a bottom has been struck, there is another 5-wave extension I have noted on the attached ES chart. But, I want to remind you that this is not unusual when an ending diagonal completes. While the initial decline was slow to develop, we are certainly making up for lost time of late. And, I still think this is just the start. I think we will likely see even bigger fireworks in May and maybe into June once we do see a corrective bounce before likely continuing lower in the coming weeks and months.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Looking For A Near Term Bottom

With the market break-down below 5091SPX, I have noted my preference for viewing the top as having been struck, which now makes this decline an a-wave. And, I have highlighted the expected support for where I believe the a-wave can bottom on the 5-minute SPX chart, the top of which we are hitting right now.Overall, I do not expect that we will break down below 4946SPX in this initial decline. Of course, if I am wrong, then we may see a much larger decline than I currently expect. But, for now, there are many indications that suggest that we should be bottoming in the support box outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Mixed Signals In Metals

The different charts are giving me different signals. So, let me review what I am seeing.First, GLD may have a small 5-wave move off the low, which is better seen in the gold futures. If that is the case, and we get another extension higher, then I have to assume it is simply an extension in wave iii, and not the start to wave v of [3]. Second, GDX has enough waves in place to consider all of its wave [ii] as completed. Yet, the move off the low is overlapping. Of course, it could be starting its next rally as a leading diagonal, but that is not reliable enough for me to turn uber-bullish just yet.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is The Market Ready For A Bigger Bounce?

Today we saw the market open slightly higher only to see a sharp drop in the early trading session. That move lower was relatively short lived however as we saw a fairly sharp move back up off of the low of the day. At the time of this writing, we are still trading under micro resistance so we are still not out of the woods in regards to the market seeing a bigger bounce just yet.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Is The Top In Place?

Yesterday, I outlined that a downside follow-through below 5056SPX would get me to adjust my wave count and view the top as being in place as my primary count. And, when you look at the 60-minute chart, you will see that is exactly where I now stand.Clearly, I am still going to want to see a break down below 4946SPX to make that a much higher probability, but I have seen enough thus far to view it as more likely than not that the top is now in place, and my wave structure is being presented accordingly. Now, there are a few issues I addressed in alerts today, which I want to repost in my afternoon report.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Risks Are Rising - Market Analysis for Apr 15th, 2024

Today, the market has broken below the 5091SPX support level we have been outlining for some time. And, that provides us with a strong warning that we may have struck a major market top of many wave degrees. For the last several months, I have been urging you to be developing a plan to put into action as the market provides us indications that a major market top is being struck. And, we have now seen our first indication that you should be putting that plan into action. Should the market continue below 5056SPX, then I will likely turn my primary count into the SPX having topped, as that would then break down below the wave ii as shown.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Nothing Broken . . . Yet - Market Analysis for Apr 11th, 2024

I know it may sound like a broken record already, but we still reside over 5091SPX, so the bulls still have a path to 5300+.Yet, I do want to point out that we have broken down below the uptrend channels outlined on the daily SPX chart, and the MACD has begun to decline. However, the MACD on the 60-minute chart is now in the support zone within this rally, and has turned up today. But, due to the nature of the last segment of this decline, I cannot be sure we have struck a bottom since the structure of the decline is not clearly indicative of a completed 5-wave c-wave structure.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Market Down But Not Quite Out

Today we saw the market move lower with the Russell 2000 leading the drop moving down more than 3%. While this move lower is certainly a warning sign that we may have already put in a larger degree top we still are sitting over some key support levels on all of the indexes which is leaving the door open to seeing yet another higher high. Should we begin to break down under these key support levels we likely will see the start of an accelerated move lower in the weeks ahead.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

No Room Left - Market Analysis for Apr 10th, 2024

Yes, there really is no room left on the upside before the breakout in GDX and silver begin in earnest. But, as long as we remain below this week’s high, there still remains potential for more of a pullback.In silver, that would be wave 2 of wave [iii]. In GDX, I am slightly changing my count and now viewing the pullback as wave [ii] within wave iii of [3] of 3. Alternatively, I would view it as wave ii, if the pullback turns out to be a bit deeper.The main point is that the next time we take out this week’s high will likely suggest we are in the heart of the 3rd wave in both GDX and silver.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

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