Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Pushes to New Highs – Eyes on the Upper Fib

Today, we saw the market once again push to new highs after several failed attempts to break support. With that move, price is now making another attempt at the upper Fibonacci target, which still comes in at the 6384 level. Whether we can actually reach that level remains to be seen—but with this morning's new high, that target is now in play.From a wave count perspective, nothing of significance has changed. We remain in a very full and extended structure, but we still need to see a break of support below to signal that a top may have been struck. That key support zone remains unchanged and continues to come in at the 6185–6135 region on the ES.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Downside Setup Still Developing In Metals

For those that have been following my analysis, you would know that I have been expecting a downside move to complete this correction in the metals before the next and likely final rally completes this long-term bullish cycle.In both gold and GDX, I have been tracking a 1-2 downside structure for their respective c-waves to complete a larger degree 4th wave.  However, this 2nd waves I have been tracking has become quite unreliable, as it now relies on more of a w-x-y pattern than a standard a-b-c for a wave 2.  While I can technically maintain an a-b-c for wave 2 in GDX, I cannot say it is highly reliable since the top of its potential wave 2 last week.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Right Back Where We Started

After opening slightly higher, the market dropped sharply this morning, only to recover that entire move and more as we head into the close. While price did dip below the very upper edge of support noted in yesterday’s update, we remain well above the key micro support zone at 6185–6135. So once again, until that zone breaks, we do not have confirmation that a top has been struck.That said, we continue to track a very full and extended wave count, so I remain cautious on further upside in this region.From a very micro perspective, we may have a potential initiation move in place. As long as price holds beneath the 6331 level, there’s room for further downside.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

SPX Makes a New High but Fades Quickly

This morning, both the SPX and NDX pushed to new highs, only to fade lower rather quickly. That new high provides the potential for a more fully extended count, continuing to stretch this market to increasingly extreme levels. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 has already started to break down, dropping sharply below the lower trend channel I’ve been monitoring. That break offers an early indication that at least a local top may be in place.That said, both the SPX and NDX remain above key upper support, and until those levels are broken, we cannot confirm that a top has been struck.From a wave structure and support perspective, not much has changed.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Still Holding Support, for Now

We saw ES move lower on Friday and again during Sunday night’s session, only to recover much of that decline into the afternoon. As of now, we’re trading roughly flat compared to Friday’s close, though still below the prior high. From a wave count perspective, not much has changed since last week, as key support levels remain intact. So with that, I’ll reiterate much of what was noted previously.As we've been tracking, the count in this region is quite full and extended across multiple timeframes. That said, without a clear break of support or a clean five-wave decline, we simply don’t yet have confirmation that a top is in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

How Much Gas Is Left in the Tank?

Today, we saw the SPX push to new highs while the NDX continued to lag. The RUT also managed to notch a new local high, though it remains well below its prior all-time high. With this continued grind higher, the real question remains: how much more upside can this market squeeze out before we see any meaningful pullback?As we've highlighted previously, the count in this region is quite full and increasingly extended across multiple timeframes. That said, until we see a confirmed break of support and/or a clear five-wave move to the downside, we simply do not have confirmation of a top just yet.What does have my attention here is the structure unfolding in the RUT.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Action Still Sloppy On The Smaller Timeframes

Today we saw the market move higher in the early morning session only to drop lower as we moved into the afternoon. We have currently retraced much of that afternoon drop but are still holding under the HOD as we move into the close. Given the structure of the move up off of the 7/7 low I am learning for this to see at least a shorter timeframe downside resolution but we still would need to see a break of support below to suggest a larger degree top may be in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Slow Day As Market Grinds Sideways

Today we saw very slow market conditions as the market moved mostly sideways and is closing out the day very much where it started out. With that, I have very little to add to yesterday's analysis as we still are sitting over support but under the previous high. As noted yesterday, I’m still focused on the key price zones below; should those break, we would begin to see the initial signs that a top may be in place. Until and unless that occurs, the potential remains for the market to push higher, despite how extended the current structure is..I continue to monitor the 5929–5793 support zone closely, along with the structure of any forthcoming pullback.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Still Holding Support

While we did see some downside action today, price has thus far held even the uppermost support levels, offering no confirmation that a local top has been struck. Additionally, all major indexes continue to show only three waves down off the recent highs, still going us no signal of a top just ut. As such, the analysis and support levels outlined in last week’s update remain largely unchanged. I’m still focused on the key price zones below, should those break, we would begin to see the initial signs that a top may be in place. Until and unless that occurs, the potential remains for the market to push higher, despite how extended the current structure is..
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Still Grinding - Market Analysis for Jul 2nd, 2025

The market continued its grind higher today, working its way up toward the next key Fibonacci resistance level I’ve been tracking on the SPX chart. This level, which represents the 261.8% extension from the move off the April lows, comes in at 6283. If we see further upside follow-through, this will be the next critical area of interest in the days ahead.That said, the market remains extended across multiple degrees and is now showing negative divergence on the 60-minute MACD. While these are important cautionary signals, we still lack a clear breakdown in support or a definitive five-wave move to the downside, both of which would be required to confirm that a top is in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago
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