Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Nothing Broken . . . Yet - Market Analysis for Apr 11th, 2024

I know it may sound like a broken record already, but we still reside over 5091SPX, so the bulls still have a path to 5300+.Yet, I do want to point out that we have broken down below the uptrend channels outlined on the daily SPX chart, and the MACD has begun to decline.   However, the MACD on the 60-minute chart is now in the support zone within this rally, and has turned up today.  But, due to the nature of the last segment of this decline, I cannot be sure we have struck a bottom since the structure of the decline is not clearly indicative of a completed 5-wave c-wave structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Down But Not Quite Out

Today we saw the market move lower with the Russell 2000 leading the drop moving down more than 3%. While this move lower is certainly a warning sign that we may have already put in a larger degree top we still are sitting over some key support levels on all of the indexes which is leaving the door open to seeing yet another higher high. Should we begin to break down under these key support levels we likely will see the start of an accelerated move lower in the weeks ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

No Room Left - Market Analysis for Apr 10th, 2024

Yes, there really is no room left on the upside before the breakout in GDX and silver begin in earnest.  But, as long as we remain below this week’s high, there still remains potential for more of a pullback.In silver, that would be wave 2 of wave [iii].  In GDX, I am slightly changing my count and now viewing the pullback as wave [ii] within wave iii of [3] of 3.  Alternatively, I would view it as wave ii, if the pullback turns out to be a bit deeper.The main point is that the next time we take out this week’s high will likely suggest we are in the heart of the 3rd wave in both GDX and silver.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Apr 10th, 2024

The set up the market left us with yesterday has clearly not followed through to the upside.  However, as you can tell from my 60-minute chart, caution has been warranted for some time now.  While I have outlined the potential for the IWM to have already topped, I am still not yet convinced the SPX has done so.  Remember, I need to see a CLEAR and sustained break of 5091SPX to really begin that process.  Moreover, should the IWM complete 5 waves to the downside, as outlined on the 60-minute chart, that would be a VERY bearish indication for the rest of 2024, after we see a 2nd wave bounce.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Still Looking Up – For Now

While the market made a valiant attempt at breaking out through 5220SPX this morning, alas, it only was able to muster a spike and reversal at that resistance region.  This led to the break down below 5197SPX which I outlined last night would point us down towards the 5160SPX region.  At this point in time, it looks like the deeper b-wave is taking shape.   But, it still leaves us with the same general perspective:  As long as remain over 5146SPX, then I am still going to be looking up towards the prior highs to complete the [a] wave of wave v of 5.As an aside, this is one of the reasons that diagonals are treacherous trading environments.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Are We Heading To 5300+ Now?

As I highlighted earlier this week, trying to distinguish this rally between the [a] wave of wave v of 5, which is pointing us north of 5300SPX, and the [b] wave of a more protracted wave iv will be almost impossible.  You see, both structures are most commonly 3-waves in nature, which means they will look exactly alike.And, in truth, I went back and forth today regarding which is my primary and which is my alternative.  As I said a number of times, the standard expectation would be for a deeper wave iv in the diagonal structure, which would follow the yellow path now on the 5-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Can The Market Push Directly To New Highs?

Today we saw the market move higher after seeing a multi-session pullback. We have moved over the lower resistance level thus giving us an initial signal that we have put in at least a local bottom. The question we have at hand at the moment is whether we can see a direct push to new highs or will the market see yet another turn lower before finding a more sustained bottom.The answer to the question above is going to be a bit challenging to answer from a structural perspective as both a push to new highs and a corrective move higher will likely take the same three-wave form.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Let It Run - Market Analysis for Apr 3rd, 2024

The metals market has been running quite nicely and we have been enjoying the fruits of our patience.  But, I am going to admonish you to not get too cute in your positions.  To that end, I will be opening this update with a quote from Jessee Livermore, and closing it with another quote of his as well.“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Are We Done With The Pullback?

While the market struck our resistance on the 5-minute chart at the open this week, we have now pulled back to the support/target box for wave iv.  And, the question now is if this represents all of wave iv?As you can see from the attached SPX chart, I am tracking this as an [a] wave within an expected more protracted wave iv.  Also, take note that the ES chart shows that even within this [a] wave, until we actually get through the 5260ES region (.382 retracement of wave 3 of the c-wave down), a lower low is a reasonable expectation before the decline today completes.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Still Looking For A Deeper Pullback To Confirm The Five Up

This past week we saw what can count as five up on Silver, Gold and GDX. The pattern is so far fairly clear in regards to that potential five-up. As Avi noted in the last update while we do have a fairly clean potential five up we still need to see a corrective retrace lower followed by a break back over the previous high to confirm that we are ready to begin the larger degree third wave up. So far we have a bit of divergence in regard to this pullback with Silver pulling back the furthest while GDX has actually exceeded the previous high.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago