Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Small Change Of Plans

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 hours ago

Getting A Bit Too Big

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Interesting Potential - Market Analysis for Aug 17th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Losing Steam - Market Analysis for Aug 13th, 2026

While the market finally began the rally we wanted to see to the next target overhead, the manner in which we seem to have rallied is leaving a bit to be desired from a structure standpoint.As a purist, I would view the rally today as completing the 3rd wave within wave (3) of v of (iii). That means we need one more rally to complete just wave (3) of v of (iii).  But, something looks off about the structure.So, for now, I am going to remain a purist and expect another rally to complete wave (3).
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Metals Got A Rest – But, No Downside Yet

We came into this week with the metals getting a rest with sideways action, but no downside has yet been seen. And, this was followed by another extension today. And, yes, there can still be one more small move higher before this wave completes, but it is still quite extended. Moreover, I still think it is quite reasonable to expect some downside in the coming week.What is interesting is that the more this extends in just this move alone, the greater the probabilities swing towards the bottom being in place already. What is also interesting is that gold and GDX have taken out their initial resistances, whereas silver still has not.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Sloppy Action But Market Still Holding Over Support

Today the market opened higher but retraced lower shortly after the open. We have since recovered some of that drop but are still holding over yesterday's low and, more importantly, over the larger-degree support zone, keeping the impulsive move up off of the July lows very much intact. This slow and sloppy action is starting to look like we may be forming an Ending Diagonal up off of the 8/6 low, but we still need to break out over the 8/10 high to further confirm that this is indeed the case.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Still Set Up For Upside

Not much has really changed since my last update. The only thing that I can add is that we seem to be filling out a c-wave within wave (2) on the 5-minute SPX chart. And, to remind you, as long as we remain over the 7700SPX region, this (1)(2) is set up to rally to the target box overhead in wave v of (iii).Alternatively, a break of 7698SPX would suggest that wave iv in yellow was not yet complete. But, since the decline from yesterday’s high is looking rather corrective, and a break down below 7698SPX would normally be seen as an impulsive c-wave decline, I have to view this as the lesser probability path for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Path Of Least Resistance Seems Up

With the lack of any bearish indications thus far, and the fact that we are clearly over support, it suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside. And, our next target is outlined by the box overhead on the 5-minute SPX chart in the 7864-7914SPX region. This represents the 1.618-1.764 extensions of waves (i)(ii), and is the typical target zone for wave (iii).In the very micro structure, I an make an argument for a (1)(2) to be developing within wave v of (iii). Clearly, we need to hold support over 7698SPX for this to be applicable. Any break down below that support suggests that wave iv is not yet done.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Slowly Leaking Lower - Market Analysis for Aug 6th, 2026

With the market seemingly topping in wave iii of (iii) of wave i in the yellow count, we have spent yesterday and today slowly leaking lower to the support box below. I want to note now that we do not have to actually strike the support box before wave iv is complete. The main point is that as long as we pullback correctively and hold over that support box, then the next expectation is for a wave v of (iii) rally once this completes.I want to also note that if the market should choose the more bearish path, then we would see a 5-wave decline which would project to at least the bottom of the ES support box.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Consolidates Over Support

After moving sharply higher over the past several days, we saw the market pull back today. We are still sitting over key support, and as long as that support holds, the pressure will remain to the upside per the yellow count. Should that support zone break on five waves, then it would open the door to a top per the white count. For now, however, the market pressure remains up.After a strong two-day rally into the lower end of the wave iii of (iii) target zone, we saw the market pull back into the upper end of support today at the 7743-7662 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago
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