Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Grinding Its Way Higher

After finding support on Monday and pushing higher, we've continued to see the market grind its way toward new all-time highs. While this move has certainly exceeded initial expectations regarding the depth of the rally off the April lows, the internal structure of that rally still leaves the bigger-picture count unchanged.One complicating factor has been the growing divergence between the ES and SPX charts, particularly due to the number of significant overnight moves that never appeared on the cash SPX chart. As such, while the larger degree structure remains largely intact, the subdivision of this C wave off the April 17th low can be interpreted in a number of viable ways.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Is That Our “Bounce” In Metals?

My main premise has been that we are likely within a 4th wave consolidation/pullback in gold and GDX and a 2nd wave in silver, and I am still very much of that opinion.   The question with which we have been grappling is whether the c-wave of that 4th wave in gold and GDX and the 2nd wave in silver has begun? For now, I am still of the opinion that it has.In both gold and GDX, we have what can be viewed as a 1-2, i-ii downside set up developing.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market Down But Not Out

Today we saw the market move down off of the high that was struck yesterday but we are still trading over support so we do not have confirmation that we have put in a top just yet. Now with that being said the case could be made that we have a very small degree five wave move to the downside in place on both the ES and the RTY.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Market Moved to Yellow

After failing to see any meaningful downside follow-through on the smaller potential Ending Diagonal (ED) we had been tracking off the May 30th low, the market reversed sharply higher today, pushing to new highs. With this move, I am now viewing the action as part of a larger ED structure that began off the May 23rd low at 5806.If this count is correct, we should eventually see a sharp reversal back toward that 5806 region. That said, we do not yet have confirmation of a top in place. For initial confirmation, we would need to see a break back below the 6108 level, followed by a break under 6000.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Market Moving Toward Yellow?

After moving lower overnight, we saw a strong rebound during the morning session, with the market now trading firmly in the green as we head into the close. This recovery, and more importantly, the lack of a sharp breakdown, has increased the odds that we may indeed be tracking the yellow count I’ve been outlining over the past several sessions.While we still don’t have full confirmation, and won’t until we see the structure of the next move lower, the fact that the market failed to produce the kind of sharp reversal typically associated with an Ending Diagonal (ED) top is noteworthy.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Are Metals Starting To Crack?

At this point in time, I am starting to see a bit more evidence that we may have a b-wave top in place in both GDX and GLD at this time.  While not the most clear and convincing evidence just yet, we may be starting the wave 1 down in their respective c-waves. While the respective 2nd waves in that wave 1 is quite shallow in both, it does leave some questions about that micro count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Trying to Make a Decision

The price action over the past several days has been quite sloppy, and as of the time of this writing, it has yet to make a decision as to whether we are going to head directly lower toward our ultimate Ending Diagonal target at the 5902 level, or if we are going to see yet another higher high before finding a significant top. These paths have been outlined over the past several days and have, for the most part, remained unchanged. Until we see a break of support below or resistance overhead, we will not have confirmation as to which path the market will ultimately take in the near term.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Adding IWM Thoughts Today

No, I still have nothing to add to the SPX analysis.  But, based upon the fact that we have no clear 5-wave decline from the high thus far, the door is still open for tomorrow’s catalyst of the Fed rate decision to ignite one more rally before this wave tops. But, all parameters outlined in prior updates still very much apply.However, in the event that we have indeed topped, then I would be looking more towards the blue count, as we do not have a clear 5-wave decline off the high, as it is looks relatively clear as a 3-wave corrective decline.So, today, I am including the similar paths I see in IWM.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

See Last Week - Market Analysis for Jun 16th, 2025

I really feel so bad that I have nothing meaningful to add to the analysis over the last week or two.   The market has done nothing but grind inch by inch higher towards the prior all-time highs.  And, as it stands right now, I do not have a 5-wave decline in place to suggest that the b-wave has topped, nor do I have any pattern in place that is presenting a projection below the 5920SPX support at this time.I know patience is not terribly easy, but I am personally also waiting patiently with a lot of money raised and sitting on the sidelines.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Honey Badger Rally - Market Analysis for Jun 12th, 2025

With the market not exhibiting the typical hallmarks of the conclusion of an ending diagonal (a spike up followed by a sharp reversal), it is simply continuing to grind higher towards the prior all-time high, despite a month of negative divergences evident on the 60-minute chart.  Yet, once this rally concludes, I am expecting a sharp reversal to begin the next larger pullback.  That begins with the break-down of the 5920SPX level, with follow-through below 5767SPX.So, there really is not much more for me to add to the analysis at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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