Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Still Over 6810SPX - Market Analysis for Dec 10th, 2025

The market has been unable to break below the triangle consolidation, which has left the upside open.   And, this afternoon, we have broken any immediate set up for a drop to take us to the bigger (b) wave support box below.That now means that as long as we remain over 6810SPX, we have to continue to look higher to the target box overhead.While I would love to give you a clear micro count to work with, the overlap seen since the triangle structure does not allow me to do so.  So, it only leaves me with looking higher for as long as we remain over 6810SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Just More Sideways Action

Unfortunately, there really is not much for me to add to the recent analysis on SPX, as the market is simply grinding sideways in a corrective manner.  What I will say is that the decline we experienced from Friday's high seems to best count as a 3-wave decline.  That means the yellow b-wave seems to be the least likely of the paths right now.  And, as long as we remain over 6810SPX, the bulls remain in control.But, if there is a path to take us lower, it would suggest that we are in an a-b-c structure pointing down to the support box below.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Silver’s Time To Shine

While silver is pushing into the minimum expected target region we set a while ago, I cannot say that this changes much in the analysis.  I am still uncertain as to which of the paths silver is going to take higher, as this is just a 5th wave in all the potential paths I have posted.   And, yes, I still expect a pullback.   But, as the analysis presented over the last week noted, I am still not sure how deep that pullback will be.   And, based upon the depth of the pullback, we will have a much better idea as to how high silver can travel in its larger 5th wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

As The Market Meanders

When I was a young child, I remember my grandmother watching a soap opera called “As The World Turns.”    Well, we seem to be stuck in another similar type of soap opera in the market, which I am now entitling “As The Market Meanders.”We have been stuck moving back and forth in this region now for over 3 months.  And, while we are still very stretched to the upside, the market has yet to provide us any evidence that a top of any larger degree has indeed been struck.  The 6550SPX support region has held on many tests.  But, now we are meandering in a smaller range.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Grinding Higher as We Hold Over Micro Support

The market has continued to grind its way higher over the past several sessions following the stronger ramp we saw during Thanksgiving week. With this continued, steady push to the upside, we’ve now opened the door to the potential that an ending pattern is developing off the 11/30 low. I’ll note that it’s not the cleanest ED structure, so I don’t have a high degree of confidence in that specific pattern. From a practical standpoint, however, it doesn’t make much difference at the moment. In either case, I’m counting this advance into the overnight high as part of a wave 5 of C, as labeled on the charts.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Going To Need More Information

Unfortunately, where the metals currently reside, we will need more information based upon the upcoming wave action over the coming weeks before we can make any determinations.   Moreover, the structures have turned quite complex, but I am going to attempt to simplify the analysis.  And, I hope I am successful.Let’s start with gold.   The structure of the rally off the end of October low is clearly a 3-wave structure.  And, as long as the resistance box on the 60-minute chart is respected, then we are well within a text-book a-b-c structure for the yellow (b) wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

6810SPX Is Our New Support

As the market has been grinding sideways now for days, and as I said in an alert I posted not too long ago, I think everyone, along with their grandmother and their grandmother’s dog can see the obvious triangle in the SPX.  And, if we completed the e-wave or the c-wave of that triangle, then 6810SPX is our new micro support level.The question now is what does this triangle represent?  Keep in mind that triangles are most often seen in 4th waves and b-waves.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Still Holding Over Micro Support

Today we saw another day of a fairly flat consolidation pattern as the market continued to move sideways since the high that was struck on 11/28. So far, this is acting like fairly typical fourth wave price action, so as long as we remain over micro support, I have to lean toward this seeing another push higher to finish off at least a wave 5 of c as laid out on the ES chart. Furthermore, because the wave 2 of the same degree was fairly sharp and quick, a more prolonged and flat wave 4 in this region actually fits the Elliott Wave guideline of alternation.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Still Angling For 7000

As I write this update, I cannot say that I have any strong evidence that the market is not going to attempt a run at 7000 before the end of the year.   While there is a potential 5-wave decline from last week’s high in place, I want to remind you that a-waves can also be a 5-wave structure in the less common scenarios.  But, if we are going to have something to suggest that we are not going to make a run for 7000, we will need a 5-wave decline at one larger wave degree before I am willing to entertain the potential that we will break down below the (b) wave support box in the yellow count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Dec 1st, 2025

I want to note clearly that I have no reasonable way to count the rally into the mid-November high as a 5-wave structure, as it is VERY clearly a 3-wave structure to me.  And, unfortunately, that leads to too many interpretations for me to maintain a reliable stance on an exact path forward.There is potential that this is a leading diagonal for wave 1 of the wave (5), as per blue.  There is potential that we are in an ending diagonal for wave (5), as per yellow, especially since we are now approaching the 1.236 extension for what can be wave 3 in an ED.  And, there is still strong potential for this being part of a larger corrective structure for wave (4).
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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