Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Bigger 2 - Market Analysis for Feb 25th, 2021

Well, since I am not a fan of leading diagonals as a strong trading cue - and I think we saw why today, the depth of this drop today is allowing me to re-set our 1-2 set up, as now shown on the attached 5-minute SPX chart. The current drop today seems best counted as the c-wave of a bigger wave 2. What this means is that we are again going to be on the lookout for a 5-wave rally off support, which I will count as wave i of 3.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Possible 5-up In Futures

I wanted to write this update early, since it is my outline for how I am looking for a potential break out sooner rather than later.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Looking For 5-Up

After hitting the .500 retracement of the February rally in the SPX, we are now approaching the prior all-time highs again. And, with that, the potential to complete wave i of 3, as shown on the 5-minute SPX chart.For the last several months, I have been lamenting for an appropriate 2nd wave pullback, as all pullbacks have been quite shallow. With this pullback dropping to the .500 retracement of what I am counting as wave 1 of [3], it makes it rather easy to count it as a wave 2 of [3], as long we now complete a 5-wave rally back towards the highs.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Hitting Support - Market Analysis for Feb 23rd, 2021

For the first time in quite some time, the market has now actually pulled back to the support we highlighted on our charts. To date, the market has basically come up short of our standard support targets, but, today, we have moved into the standard target region for a wave 2.What this means is that as long as we hold over the 3775SPX lower end of support, we have to be looking for the initial 5-wave structure off the low. That would provide us with wave i of wave 3, and get us on high alert for a potential break out to happen sooner rather than later in wave iii of 3.After hitting the .
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sticky Market - Market Analysis for Feb 22nd, 2021

The market has been seemingly stuck in the same general region for most of February. And, I still have no strongly reliable micro-count upon which I can rely.The one thing I did to my 5-minute SPX chart was to re-order the probabilities as I see them. I have now re-labelled the 1-2 structure for green, and made the higher high potential an alternative in blue. But, to be very honest, I cannot say that one is that much higher in probability than the other at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sentiment Speaks: Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Market

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the moral hazard being created by the Pavlovian buy-the-dip perspective in the market. As I expect the market to top out in the next few years and enter into a prolonged bear market, the nature of the market rallies over the last 10 years have thoroughly trained investors that all you have to do is buy-the-dip, as the market always comes back.In fact, this past week, I saw these comments in my articles, which only reinforces my perspective:“I love a good press on an author from a paid subscriber but I’ve been making money hand over fist by trading and pouncing on pullbacks on a few stocks I closely watch.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sentiment Speaks: The Dollar Is Dead; Long Live The Dollar

There are so many false theories and narratives about the dollar and other assets, that I wanted to take a moment to pen an article with facts, rather than the false assumptions that are continually propagated and regurgitated throughout the market.All I have been hearing of late is that inflation is on the rise or inflation is clearly going to rear its ugly head because of all the stimulus being offered by the government, as well due to the constant brrrrrrrrr of the Fed-machine.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Bulls Still Holding On

With the test of the 3880SPX support, the bulls are still holding support for wave iv of 1.As I have been highlighting of late, the 3880SPX support is what should hold if the market is going to attempt to complete wave v of 1, as shown on my 5-minute SPX chart. Most specifically, if today’s low completed the wave iv of 1, then we need to rally back up towards yesterday’s high to complete a 5-wave structure for wave [i] of v of 1. Anything less will have me considering our alternatives.Most specifically, the alternatives I would have to consider is that we topped in an unusual manner which I have labeled as blue wave 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Review OF Levels

Let me outline the plan here, so everyone can get this straight in their minds and it should clear up any confusion.My PRIMARY perspective is that I really want a 5th wave higher to complete wave v of 1, as you can see outlined in my blue box at the top of the SPX chart. In order to maintain that expectation, we SHOULD HOLD 3880SPX. Below 3880SPX I may have to consider a very unusual top for wave 1 - shown with the blue 1. Should we break below 3880SPX, then the blue box for wave 2 has a main support of 3775SPX, which is the .618 retracement of the blue wave 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Over Support - Market Analysis for Feb 17th, 2021

While I was debating as to whether the pullback we began yesterday was a 4th wave in an ending diagonal for wave v of 1 or whether it was furtherance of wave iv of 1, today made it abundantly clear that the appropriate count would have this as a more protracted wave iv pullback within wave 1 of [3]. What this means is that as long as the market holds over the 3880SPX support, I am still looking for a wave v of 1 to complete into the target above on the 5-minute SPX chart.Again, I am still seeking to complete 5-waves up for wave 1 of [3], and I do not have a clearly completed structure at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago