Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

What I Don’t See

Sometimes what you don’t see in the market helps you to decide about what the market is about to do.   Of late, I have seen initial indications that the market may have finally topped in the rally off the April 2025 low.  But, when we did not see follow through below 6720SPX, it told me to wait a bit longer for more signals.  With the strong rally we saw at the end of last week, I initially surmised that it was a corrective rally, since I did not see any clear indications that the yellow (c) wave rally pointing us north of 7200SPX was taking shape.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Quick Pre-Weekend Update

We are approaching the lower end of the Ending Diagonal reversal target zone at 6961–7028 and are now up more than 2.5% off the overnight low. As we move into this key target and resistance area, it would be reasonable to expect at least a local top to form.Although ES did break the 6767 level, that break occurred outside of regular market hours when volume was low, and the cash SPX did not break the corresponding low. While not ideal, this does still allow the white wave 2 bottoming scenario to remain valid.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Market Breaks Initial Support, Opening the Door for a Larger Top

Today the market continued to push lower, breaking down below the first key support/pivot level that had been holding the bullish case for new all-time highs. With that said, the structure of the decline from the 7026 high is very overlapping and lacks an impulsive wave structure, which is more characteristic of corrective price action.Importantly, there is still one key price level just below current levels that could hold and keep the bullish path to new highs intact.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Short and Sweet - Market Analysis for Feb 5th, 2026

There really is not much for me to add to my metals analysis at this time.  My view remains that we are mired in a b-wave within a larger a-b-c corrective structure off the recent highs.  And, I think it is reasonable to expect one more rally before this b-wave completes.Of course, should all 3 charts break below their recent lows, then I have to assume the c-wave is already in progress, especially since we have hit the minimum targets for this b-wave in both the GC and GDX charts, but we have fallen short in silver.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Finds Support After A Sharp Move Lower, but We Are Still Not Out of the Woods

Today we saw the market move sharply lower, breaking yesterday’s low, but it managed to find support and keep the bullish path in play for the time being. While today’s move up off the afternoon low is a good start for the bullish count, we still have a bit more work to do before we can confirm that a bottom is in place and that we are indeed ready to push to new highs. Furthermore, as I noted previously, because we are likely trading within an Ending Diagonal off the December lows, even if we do push higher, the path to those highs is likely going to involve some twists and turns, much like what we saw today.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Sees A Deep Retrace But Catches The Lower End Of Support

Today we saw the market move sharply lower, but was able to find support at the lower end of the key retracement level before we headed into the final hour of trading. If we can manage to hold today's LOD overnight and into tomorrow, then the door will remain open for this to push higher in a wave iii of larger waec (c). We still will need to push through the micro pivot, which sits just overhead, to give us initial confirmation that we have put a bottom in place, but the reversal right at key support is certainly a good start.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Rebounds Higher but Still Trading Under Key Pivots

Today we saw the market move sharply higher, retracing much of last week’s pullback. However, we are still trading below the key pivot level that must break to confirm that we are ready to push to new highs. As we move into the close, the market is sitting near the middle of this pivot zone, and if we can break above it over the next couple of sessions, we should indeed be on our way to new highs.That said, I want to note that the structure of the move up off the December lows remains very overlapping and somewhat sloppy, which continues to suggest that we may be working within an Ending Diagonal.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Breaks Upper Support but Holds Lower Support

Today, the market broke lower, moving beneath the upper micro support that I outlined yesterday. With that break, focus now shifts to the larger support zone below, which has held thus far. From here, we will need to closely monitor the structure to the upside to determine whether the market can develop a full five-wave move higher, followed by a break of overhead resistance. That type of action would provide an indication that the market is ready to put in a bottom and push to new highs in the weeks and months ahead. Alternatively, failure to do so would suggest the market has other intentions and may be setting up for a deeper move lower.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Extreme And Dangerously So

To call this move in gold now “extreme” is beyond an understatement.  Moreover, not only did we get the spike out of the channel in continuation of this parabola, but it has even accelerated further, which now places us in what I believe to be a dangerous environment.  These types of moves usually end with a VERY strong reversal and drop to the region from which this diagonal began.With regard to the wave structure in gold, I am seeing this as a very extended wave v of the c-wave of within the 5th wave of the ending diagonal, which you can see on the 60-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Market Is Still Holding Support, But the Small Caps Stil May Be Telling a Different Story

Today, we saw the market open higher, only to pull back into the key micro support zone that I laid out yesterday. While the bullish count I have been tracking on both the SPX and Nasdaq remains intact for the time being, the Russell 2000 chart still shows a potentially bearish resolution, at least in the short term. In fact, the bearish count on the Russell 2000 is actually a bit cleaner than the potentially bullish count I am watching on the SPX and Nasdaq. While I will continue to give the SPX the benefit of the doubt in resolving higher, the count on the Russell 2000 has me becoming even more cautious in this region.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago
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