Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Getting Closer - Market Analysis for Apr 24th, 2025

With the market just barely holding the pivot on the SPX chart, it did break below it in the overnight session in the futures.  So, it did put into question whether the market intended to head directly higher in the red count.  This far, I have to still keep that as the primary count.  It would take a break down below yesterday’s low to suggest otherwise.For now, I would like to see the market rally to the target box for wave v of 3.  Thereafter, I would expect a 4th wave pullback, followed by a 5th wave rally to complete this [c] wave north of 5600SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Can Gold and Silver Diverge?

The simple answer is “yes.”   In fact, I point it out all the time that, in 2011, silver topped 5 months before gold and only saw a corrective rally while gold went on to its ultimate top during a strong run in the summer of 2011.  And, there is no reason we could not see the opposite occur in 2025.Now, I am not saying that gold has certainly topped.  But, it must be a consideration based upon the manner it rallied into the recent high.   Yet, my primary count will remain with an expectation of a (4) (5) before this cycle completes.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

B-Waves Are Difficult

With the market breaking out today again, it is trying to take us in a more direct fashion to completion of the red (c) wave of the red b-wave.  But, as I posted this morning, we really have to hold the pivot on a wave iv pullback to make this a higher probability.  For now, the market is trying quite hard to do so.As long as this last pullback low holds as support, the market still has a more direct path higher to complete this larger degree b-wave rally.  This is simply following a standard Fibonacci Pinball structure.   Remember, wave iii of 3 often targets the 1.00-1.236 extension of waves 1-2, followed by a wave iv pullback to the .618-.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Two (And Maybe Three) Potential Paths To The Same Place

With the market seemingly putting in a bottom last week, the question that then arises is whether than completed the red [b] wave, or if the [b] wave will continue to trace out the triangle outlined on the attached 15-minute ES chart?Well, to be honest, the SPX and ES are telling two different micro stories.The ES suggests that the triangle will continue to fill in over the next week or so.  The rally today topped at just about the point wherein we can count an (a)=(c) rally off the low struck last week.  We then dropped below the micro pivot, which suggests that this move up was a 3-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Markets Move Lower, Leaving Wave (b) Likely Underway

We ended last week with several possible counts in play; however, with today's break below the 4/10 low, both the triangle and Ending Diagonal counts to the upside have been invalidated. This now leaves us likely working on a wave (b) of a larger ABC structure off the lows.I still don’t have a clear way to subdivide the move down from the 4/11 high, which is keeping my focus on the larger Fibonacci retracement levels below. As such, I remain cautious in calling an immediate bottom until we see a clearer signal—either in the form of a completed five-wave move up or a break of key overhead resistance.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Corrective Wave Action Continues

Today's theme was very much a repeat of what we've seen over the past several days—corrective wave action in all directions. After moving lower yesterday in what appeared to be a three-wave move into the afternoon low, we saw further upside action today that also completed a three-wave structure. This corrective action, both up and down, suggests that we are developing either a diagonal or a triangle in this region.With the market failing to break directly lower, I believe it's becoming less likely that we’ll see an immediate breakdown for wave (b) of the larger wave b.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Still Some Room – But Have An Eye For The Door

Gold has been on an absolute tear of late.  And, while these types of moves get people so excited and interested in gold, they often are seen towards the end of a move rather than the start of a new move when we are this late in the cycle.  If you remember, I set our secondary target for this bull market in gold to the $3400 region.  And, we have almost attained that target.  So while I still believe that we have one more [4][5] structure to complete before this long-term cycle concludes, you must at least consider the potential that we may be concluding it even earlier than I had expected.  Hence, the “alt-top” in red on my GLD chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Micro Support Broke - Market Analysis for Apr 16th, 2025

After consolidating yesterday, we saw the market break below the upper micro support, giving us initial confirmation that we are indeed following the path lower to complete wave (b) to the downside. We have yet to break the low established on 4/10, which would serve as final confirmation. However, the current downside action is supportive of that scenario so far.I’ll note that there are some issues with the internal wave structure when counting this as wave (b) down. Still, as long as we continue to push lower, this will remain the base case.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Slows Down After A Wild Run

Today, the market continued to take a breather after three weeks of extreme volatility. Price action remained in a very tight range, leaving the door open for a number of short-term paths to play out. Overall, however, the action on smaller timeframes remains quite sloppy. Because of this, I will continue to focus on key support and resistance pivot levels, which I’ll outline below. At the moment, I don't see a high-probability outcome on the smaller timeframes until we get a decisive break of those pivot levels.There isn’t much to add to the bigger picture count. The base case still holds that we’ve bottomed in at least wave a, as laid out in the red count.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Holding below last week's high for now

The market gapped initially higher at the open, then pulled back to close the gap and has since been drifting higher during the afternoon session. If price makes its way back above the morning high from here, it would reduce the probability of the wider corrective flat off of last week's high as wave b of the blue count. Breaking out above last week's high should completely remove that count and suggest a trip to at least 5600 next as a potential leading diagonal off last week's low for a larger a-wave shown in red.
by Garrett Patten - 2 weeks ago
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