Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Getting A Bit More Complex

While the metals market provided us with another bounce, the structure of that bounce was not at all indicative of a standard c-wave rally, which would have completed a larger b-wave bounce.  You see, c-waves are most often 5-wave structures. And, thus far, all we have seen is another 3-wave bounce.  This leaves the door open for several paths.Let’s start with gold.   As you know, I am trying to track a (b) wave bounce, which would set up a (c) wave decline.  However, if we are going to see a (b) wave bounce taking us higher in the coming days, we are now at important support for a b-wave within that structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market Testing Micro Support

I really do not have much to add to yesterday's analysis.  But, today we did see a pullback towards the smaller degree uptrend line, as we are holding over the initial support box. So, as it stands as I write this update, nothing has broken.  And, a VERY stretched market can continue to choose even higher levels to strike before we finally complete this very long uptrend.  As I said in metals as we were striking the highs, you have to determine how much risk you want to take up here.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Simply Amazing - Market Analysis for Oct 28th, 2025

As I wrote earlier today:“I am truly astounded that we have been able to approach the 7000 region without more than a .236 retracement.  It is truly amazing. But, it has done its job . . it has made people absolutely believe in the invincibility of the US equity market.”In fact, if you are given this larger degree structure without more than a .236 retracement the entire way up, 8 or 9 out of 10 times this would not likely be the result, in my humble opinion.  That is why I view this as such an anomaly, as it is so rare to see this type of move.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Pushing Upside Targets - Market Analysis for Oct 27th, 2025

Over the weekend, I outlined the upside targets/resistance in the 6832-54SPX region.  And, today’s gap up moved past that initial resistance region.  But, on the 15-minute ES chart, we have been hitting our head on the 2.00 extension of waves (1)(2) in the ending diagonal structure I have been tracking of late. And, I still think this is a very reasonable interpretation.However, for this interpretation to bear fruit, it would mean a strong reversal below the wave (4) low should begin imminently. And, due to how incredibly stretched this rally has become off the April low without more than a .236 retracement, I have a hard time expecting even further gains.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Downside Being Seen, But, Weaker Than Expected

I was unable to write an update as I was at doctor appointments this morning.  So, I am going to outline what I am seeing so you can understand my conclusions.While we did see a “bounce” last week, that bounce only went to the .382 retracement of the prior decline.   While it is “possible” that this was all the (b) wave we are going to get, as shown by the alt (b) noted on the charts, this is clearly not my primary expectation.  In fact, I still think it is reasonable to expect more of a bounce.   Let me explain.To see a (b) wave that only retraces .
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Testing The Highs

After moving lower yesterday, we saw the market push sharply higher today as we once again retest the highs. As we’ve been dealing with for several months now, the price action remains quite sloppy in this region, as we continue to see three-wave moves both to the downside and upside. This is typical when trading within Ending Diagonal (ED) patterns, which still appears to be the case as the market continues to grind higher.On the smaller timeframes, I’m tracking a few different potential paths,  all of which would likely ultimately lead to new highs. The bigger question at the moment is whether we’ll see a pullback before that next high is reached.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Looking For A “Bounce”

We have seen quite the selloff in the metals complex.  When the rubber band is stretched to an extreme in one direction, the snap back can be quite painful.  And, I tried to warn quite vehemently about a potential for such a reversal, but too many were busy cheerleading.While I was able to identify the blow-off top occurring in real-time last week in gold, we are now down to the initial support regions on our various charts.  In GC and GDX, we are now at the lower end of the upper support box. In silver, we almost struck the top of the major support box. And, thus far, all count best as 3-wave declines.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Why Do I Bother?

I can’t remember the last time we completed a solid 5-wave, standard Fibonacci Pinball, impulsive structure in the ES/SPX pointing up.  So, I wonder why I even bothered trying to track one of late.  But, needless to say, the decline below the pivot today has spoiled that pattern as well.At this time, we are left with a potential ending diagonal pointing us to one more higher high, or the c-wave decline.  While I cannot count a solid 5-wave decline to strongly suggest the c-wave down has begun, it is still just as viable a path right now as the ending diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Something Is About To Happen

With the market hovering just below the 1.236 extension of yellow waves (1)(2), there are several options I will outline.I will start with what I view as the primary count presented in yellow.  This suggests we are in the c-wave of wave 5, and as long as we hold over the pivot in a corrective fashion, I will maintain this as my primary and look for the next move to the 6845ES region to complete wave (3).Of course, I have to reasonably track two alternatives.  First, since we have rallied to the 1.236 extension of waves (1)(2), we have to consider that we may be completing the c-wave as an ending diagonal.  You see, wave (3) of a diagonal targets the 1.236 extension of waves (1)(2).
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is That All We Get?

Silver is currently attempting to complete a (c) wave down.  And, of course, the question is going to be if this is all we get?So far, we have come up a bit short of the .236 minimum target we set for this pullback.  Moreover, we clearly are well shy of the multi-week correction that the 2010-2011 fractal suggested we could see.  But, at the same time, the MACD has now moved down into the reset posture, which can now support a larger degree rally.Moving over to gold we also seem to be completing an a-b-c flat, which may be all of the alt iv.  Yet, GDX really is well short of even an *a)=(c).
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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