Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Weird Action Today - Market Analysis for Mar 14th, 2024

After the worse than expected inflation report came out this morning, the market continued to hover up near the resistance region once again.  And, it was not until after the market open did this decline today begin.  Oftentimes, when the market shrugs off bad economic news, it usually leads to a move in the opposite direction that many would expect based upon the substance of the news.  While that occurred initially, the downside thereafter is a bit unusual.  Yet, we cannot question price.  So, how do we interpret it?Well, in the bullish count, this is supposed to be a [c] wave of iii, which is usually a pretty strong move up.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Market Not Giving Up Just Yet

The market is trading relatively flat today and is still trading under the previous high at the 5188 level on the SPX. The overall price action remains relatively sloppy as it has been off of the 2/13 low. This sloppy and overlapping action is still supportive that we are dealing with an Ending Diagonal up off of that low. With this continued grind higher however we still do not have any signal that this Diagonal has put in a top just yet.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Still Trying To Complete 5 Up

Over the weekend, I tried to get many of you to still maintain a bit more patience until the market provides us with the next set up:“Well, one thing I have learned about metals is that you do not get in their way when they are running, in the same manner in which one avoids standing in front of a run-away train when it is moving forward. So, I have no wise words right now other than suggesting we let the market run until it does not. Once we begin to see a reasonable pullback/consolidation which takes more than a few days, then we can begin to make certain assessments of the structure of the rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Bulls Are Still Dancing Around That Last Chair As The Music Continues

I want to start out this update with warning again that we have not yet broken any support.  And, until we do, you should consider holstering any bearishness.Nonetheless, I have to say that today’s action in the futures is very overlapping and uncertain, even for a diagonal structure.  Yet, as I just noted, we have not broken any support.  The one chart that came close to breaking support today was the IWM.  Off the recent high, I can outline an a=c decline into the 203 region today.  That could indicate a corrective 3-wave pullback – if we hold 203 – which can open the door to one more push higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

One Path Left For 5350SPX

With the break-down of the standard Fibonacci Pinball structure we were tracking towards the 5350-5390SPX region on Friday, the SPX has one path left which can still take us there.  Yes, that is the beloved ending diagonal structure.  There is not a lot I can really outline for this beyond what we know of diagonals.  The standard target for wave iii of the diagonal is the 1.236 extension of waves i-ii, which is in the 5260SPX region.  I have the general path outlined on the attached 5-minute chart, as you can see.However, I must warn you.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

We Will Continue To Raise Support

As the market continues to follow through on the upside set up, we now seem to be rallying in wave [iii] of iii outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.   This will push us closer towards the top of wave 5, which will complete the c-wave of a larger 5th wave within an ending diagonal, as outlined on the 60-minute SPX chart.So, with the market moving up, I am moving up micro support to the low of wave [ii] in the 5093SPX region.  So, if anyone wants a tight stop, that would likely be it for now.  Should the market continue higher to the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Follow Up On Metals Market

Well, thus far, the metals have continued their bullish run.  And, we are now nearing a point in time where we can begin expectations of cooling off a bit, as they begin to back and fill, working their way to 2nd wave pullbacks.  So, let’s take a brief look at the individual charts.Staring with GLD, I am assuming this is simply an extension to wave 3, as we are even approaching the region at which the market topped in the afterhours session a few months ago.   And, I have added a support region for wave 4 as well.   In GDX, I am also going to assume we are completing a more extended wave (iii).
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Answered Our Questions

Yesterday, we were left with a few questions regarding how the IWM and SPX will likely resolve.  Today, the market seems to have answered those questions with a shortened drop -thus far – by IWM, and the SPX holding its support and starting a rally off support.   This brings me to a small modification in the wave count on the 5-minute chart, which I discussed in today’s live video to the general membership.  I am viewing yesterday’s drop in the SPX as the [c] wave in an expanded wave ii flat.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Two Potentially Different Messages

As we know, sometimes various indices will align, and sometimes they will diverge.   At this point in time, I am uncertain as to whether the IWM and SPX will align or diverge, which can mean something different for each one.  Allow me to explain.I have been using the IWM for the main signals I have been following as to when I believe the general equity market can top. And, based upon my primary count, I am viewing the current pullback as the [c] wave within the b-wave of v of the ending diagonal 5th wave.  You can generally see this on the 60-minute IWM chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Bearish Scenario Has Been Invalidated For Now

With today’s move higher in the metals, we have now moved through the initial resistance points which, if held, could have pointed us down for that lower low.   This has now invalidated an immediate bearish scenario.However, once the bearish scenario has invalidated, it does not yet mean that an immediate bullish one has appeared.   Rather, for that to occur, we still need to complete a 5-wave structure off a low.  And, we are not there quite yet.So, let’s look at the individual charts.As you know, I have been pounding the table on the GLD chart, continually reiterating how bullish that chart presents.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

  Matched
x