Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Small Changes - Market Analysis for Jun 15th, 2026

With the rally we are seeing today, I wanted to keep you apprised of where I think we are so that you can be appropriately prepared when the next buying opportunity arises.There are only two small changes I would make to the analysis from the weekend.  The first is in GDX. Due to the size of the move higher, I think it is clear that the recent low completed the 3rd wave of an ending diagonal in the c-wave for GDX.  With it hitting a low just beyond the 1.382 extension of waves 1-2 to the downside, this is a very reasonable bottom to the 3rd wave in a diagonal in metals.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Ugly Action as Market Sees More Whipsaw

Today, the market opened up slightly, followed by a small dip in the morning session, only to push sharply higher in the afternoon. We are currently trading at the highs of the day and have broken the most immediately bearish path that we had laid out yesterday. This is making the more indirect path lower, as laid out in the yellow count, more likely.With that being said, I still cannot rule out a more immediate drop from around current levels. However, under that case, I think it would be more likely that any direct move lower would take the form of an Ending Diagonal to the downside.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Direct May Not Be So Direct

The main point of this update is simply to remind you that pressure will remain down in the more direct path to our lower directs UNLESS we see a VERY CLEAR 5-wave rally take hold at higher than a micro level.  But, even so, I am still expecting a sizeable bounce soon in a 4th wave of the c-wave lower.Yet, I want to note that silver still retains some potential for the purple count.  Last night, we struck a 1.00 extension (a=c) low and have bounced.  Since I am counting a direct move lower as an ending diagonal, we really should be targeting at least the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Weighing Competing Issues - Market Analysis for Jun 10th, 2026

Yesterday, I tried taking you through my thought process when I analyze the current SPX structure.   Today, I am taking it to the next step and adding in the new information we have seen since yesterday.We were trying to distinguish between the yellow larger (a)(b) structure and the more immediate downside 1-2 set up within the (c) wave.  In the later afternoon yesterday, the market rallied up to the .618 retracement of what I am viewing as the wave 1 down, but the rally could be counted as a 5-wave structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Likely More To Go

Analyzing the market is a process.  And, I want to take you through my process today as to how I determine primary versus alternative wave counts in our current situation.With the market striking the bottom of our target/resistance box, and then turning down, the primary question we have is whether we have begun the (c) wave down, or if the market is providing us with a deep (a) wave, and a (b) wave is yet to be seen?  And, with the market bottoming thus far in between the .382 and .236 retracements of the prior rally, it does not offer much in the way of guidance from that perspective.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Bounce Is Here

With the futures dropping to within 25 points of the .236 retracement and the top of our target/support box on the 5-minute SPX chart, we seem to have completed our (a) wave decline.   That likely means that we are now within the (b) wave bounce.Normally, we expect the a-wave within the (b) wave to bounce back to the .382-.500 retracement of the prior (a) wave decline, followed by a b-wave pullback, thereafter leading to a c-wave rally towards the .618 retracement of the (a) wave decline to complete the (b) wave bounce.  And, thus far, the market seems to be complying.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Break Of Support - Enjoy Your Jello

Clearly, we have broken the IMMEDIATE set up for the purple count.  And, that has opened the door to the more direct move lower.  So, I want to be clear about what I know and what I don't know.What I am relatively confident of is that the market is likely going to be heading to the lower lows we have been discussing for quite some time.  What I am not confident about is the path that is taking us there. Right now, this weakness suggests that we can be heading to the lower lows in a more direct fashion. Yet, I do not have a reliable wave structure that makes me confident in that perspective.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Failure Leads To Moar Jello

I wanted to send out a quick update this evening, as the rally today off the overnight low really counts best as a 3-wave rally.  And, 3-wave rallies are usually only corrective in nature.  This now causes a problem for the purple count as we needed a 5-wave rally off the recent low to provide us with the ideal (i)(ii) i-ii set up pointing us higher.Now, at the same time, I cannot say that I see a clear impulsive structure pointing us lower, as the decline from the recent high counts best as a corrective 3-wave structure as well.So, with 3-wave structures in both directions, it puts us back into jello.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Support Held - Market Analysis for Jun 4th, 2026

The title just about says it all and I am going to keep this update very simple.  Today’s low held where a 4th wave of smaller degree would be expected to hold.  Therefore, I am viewing it as wave (4) within wave (v), which you can see on the attached 5-minute SPX chart.The next upside target is the 7646SPX region, which is, astoundingly, the 4.00 extension off the end of March low.  So, to remind you again, we need to beak 7500SPX, with a follow-through below 7389SPX, to make it likely that the bigger pullback (or something much more bearish) is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Down Today, But Still Remains Over Support For Now

Today the market traded lower as we moved into the lower end of the resistance zone for the move up off of the May 19th low. That move lower is still only a three-wave structure and is trading well above even the upper smaller-degree support levels. So until we see a break of that support zone and/or see a full five-wave move down off the highs, we still do not have any indication that we have put in even a local top just yet.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago
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