Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

(a) Wave Seemingly Not Done

With the market unable to develop any real rally attempt for a c-wave, it has forced us into the perspective that the (a) wave has not yet completed.  And, that suggests that we have a date with the 6360SPX support zone next.   I now have that as my primary count.While the market can certainly drop to that region in a more direct fashion, it would not surprise me to see yet another twist in this action.  You see, the initial rally off the recent lows could have been an a-wave in wave 4, with this pullback being a b-wave, followed by a c-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market’s Footing Is Getting Shaky

My thesis coming into this week was that we were completing an ending diagonal for the c-wave of the (a) wave in this current corrective pullback in SPX.  Therefore, I was expecting a strong reversal, which should take us back to the region from which the diagonal began in a very swift move.While the week started out by following that perspective, the fact that we have stalled now for almost two full trading days is starting to get a bit concerning about follow through in this potential (b) wave bounce back towards the 6850-6900SPX region.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Metals Are Moving In The Shadows

It has been interesting watching the metals move of late, as almost all the action has taken place during after-hours.  As an example, when gold struck its recent local bottom to what I am counting as wave 3, it happened in the overnight session.   Then, yesterday, it took the market the entire day to set up a 1-2, i-ii pattern, and as soon as the market closed, silver and gold broke out in their 3rd waves.I even noted it in a post I made at 1PM:“The way this continually hesitates at the highs seems to suggest it may attempt a break out overnight.   We will see.  As long as we hold over the overnight low, this is pointing higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

War . . What Is Gold Good For?

****This is an article that will be published on KITCO and Yahoo Finance in the coming days*****For those that read the articles I published and the interviews I gave at the end of 2025, you would know that I was warning that this bullish metals cycle could be completing as we move into 2026.  In fact, in an article I wrote for KITCO in late 2025 – which was picked up by a number of other sites – each and every commenter told me how I was absolutely wrong, and that this time is different. While both gold and silver did exceed my ideal targets, it is rather clear now that a cycle has come to an end as per our expectations.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Treading Water - Market Analysis for Mar 24th, 2026

There really is not much to add to the analysis at this time.  We have been simply treading water within the b-wave support box on the ES chart.   And, as long as this continues, then I have to look higher towards the c-wave target box overhead.Of course, if we break this support box, then it opens the door to the deeper (a) wave presented on the 60-minute SPX chart, labeled as the alt (a).  And, until the market actually makes a decision, there is not much more for me to say.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

(b) Wave In Progress

Well, it seems we have seen that strong reversal we were expecting and it also was accompanied by news.   So, this is rather typical and well in line with our expectations.Thus far, the rally seems to be corrective.  Moreover, the a-wave within this (b) wave rally spiked just beyond the standard target for an a-wave in a corrective rally, which is the .382 retracement of the (a) wave decline.  And, as I noted early in the day that the most likely expectation would be for the market to spend the rest of the day in a corrective b-wave pullback, things seem to be going as planned thus far.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Final Push Lower?

Today we continued to push lower, breaking the March 8th low and inching us closer to completing the larger Ending Diagonal that we have been tracking to the downside for several weeks. While we did break the March 8th low, which technically fulfills the minimum requirements for a completed Ending Diagonal, the micro structure still looks incomplete to the downside. Furthermore, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 have yet to break that March 8th low, all of which is still suggestive that we have lower to go before an ultimate bottom is struck.Drilling down to the ES chart, I am counting us still in wave (iii) of 5 of the larger wave C of (A).
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

C Wave To The Downside Likely Underway

After retracing over the past several days, today we moved lower and are testing the lower end of the next key pivot/support zone, which would confirm that we are indeed in wave (iii) of C down as part of the larger Ending Diagonal that we have been tracking for the past several weeks.If we manage to break back under the 6672 level, that would further confirm that we are indeed in wave (iii) of C down as laid out per the white count on the ES chart. Further confirmation would come with a break back under the 6645 level, which represents the 100% extension of the initial move down off the highs.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Are Metals About To Whipsaw or Waterfall?

As I outlined over the weekend, gold was the clearest of the charts of late.  And, I also noted that should we see a sustained break of the 5000 region, then we are likely next heading to the 4800 region which will be a VERY important point for the market.To explain again, thus far, we have dropped down to the 1.00 extension (4800 region) off the 1-2 downside set up we have been tracking.  Normally, when the market bottoms at the 1.00 extension and begins an impulsive rally back up through the .618 extension (4983.50), it tells us that the market is not going to follow through on the downside set up, and that the decline was really a corrective a-b-c pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Does Not Seem Done

Not much has changed in the wave count from yesterday.  The rally into yesterday’s high seems to have been the (a) wave of the b-wave in the 5th wave of this ending diagonal, with the overnight action providing us a (b) wave pullback, and today’s rally being the (c) wave of the b-wave.Thus far we have come up to the .618 retrace of the a-wave decline, as you can see from the attached 15-minute ES chart.  While this may be all we see, the (c) wave rally really looks incomplete, and can certainly make one more rally attempt towards the .763 retracement region.  In fact, that .764 retracement region has confluence with an (a)=(c) ratio within this b-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago
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