Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Grinding Higher as We Hold Over Micro Support

The market has continued to grind its way higher over the past several sessions following the stronger ramp we saw during Thanksgiving week. With this continued, steady push to the upside, we’ve now opened the door to the potential that an ending pattern is developing off the 11/30 low. I’ll note that it’s not the cleanest ED structure, so I don’t have a high degree of confidence in that specific pattern. From a practical standpoint, however, it doesn’t make much difference at the moment. In either case, I’m counting this advance into the overnight high as part of a wave 5 of C, as labeled on the charts.
by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Going To Need More Information

Unfortunately, where the metals currently reside, we will need more information based upon the upcoming wave action over the coming weeks before we can make any determinations.   Moreover, the structures have turned quite complex, but I am going to attempt to simplify the analysis.  And, I hope I am successful.Let’s start with gold.   The structure of the rally off the end of October low is clearly a 3-wave structure.  And, as long as the resistance box on the 60-minute chart is respected, then we are well within a text-book a-b-c structure for the yellow (b) wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

6810SPX Is Our New Support

As the market has been grinding sideways now for days, and as I said in an alert I posted not too long ago, I think everyone, along with their grandmother and their grandmother’s dog can see the obvious triangle in the SPX.  And, if we completed the e-wave or the c-wave of that triangle, then 6810SPX is our new micro support level.The question now is what does this triangle represent?  Keep in mind that triangles are most often seen in 4th waves and b-waves.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Still Holding Over Micro Support

Today we saw another day of a fairly flat consolidation pattern as the market continued to move sideways since the high that was struck on 11/28. So far, this is acting like fairly typical fourth wave price action, so as long as we remain over micro support, I have to lean toward this seeing another push higher to finish off at least a wave 5 of c as laid out on the ES chart. Furthermore, because the wave 2 of the same degree was fairly sharp and quick, a more prolonged and flat wave 4 in this region actually fits the Elliott Wave guideline of alternation.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Market Still Angling For 7000

As I write this update, I cannot say that I have any strong evidence that the market is not going to attempt a run at 7000 before the end of the year.   While there is a potential 5-wave decline from last week’s high in place, I want to remind you that a-waves can also be a 5-wave structure in the less common scenarios.  But, if we are going to have something to suggest that we are not going to make a run for 7000, we will need a 5-wave decline at one larger wave degree before I am willing to entertain the potential that we will break down below the (b) wave support box in the yellow count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Dec 1st, 2025

I want to note clearly that I have no reasonable way to count the rally into the mid-November high as a 5-wave structure, as it is VERY clearly a 3-wave structure to me.  And, unfortunately, that leads to too many interpretations for me to maintain a reliable stance on an exact path forward.There is potential that this is a leading diagonal for wave 1 of the wave (5), as per blue.  There is potential that we are in an ending diagonal for wave (5), as per yellow, especially since we are now approaching the 1.236 extension for what can be wave 3 in an ED.  And, there is still strong potential for this being part of a larger corrective structure for wave (4).
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Metals Pushing The Limits Again

If you have experience with the manner in which the metals trade, then you know that they almost always push their limits. And, silver seems to be doing that as I write this update.There is no question that the rally that we have seen since silver struck the wave (4) support/target box has been overlapping and corrective looking.  This has been quite consistent with the expectation that it has been a corrective rally.  And, that is how I currently view it.  The question then is how to count it?First, silver is still retaining its 1-2 downside structure as long as we remain below the (b) wave high.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Structure of the Next Move Down Will Help Tell the Story Into Year-End

This strong move off the lows over the past several days has certainly exceeded my expectations and keeps the path to new highs alive. With that said, we’re now approaching the upper end of the resistance zone for a potential larger top, one that still could take us back under last week’s low, as we only have three waves up off that low.Of course, because we are still likely dealing with an Ending Diagonal on the larger degree structure, even a three-wave start doesn’t eliminate the potential for new highs.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Another One Bites The Dust?

Over the last number of months, the SPX has tested the 6550SPX support region to which I have been pointing multiple times, and we have yet to see a sustained break of that level despite numerous tests of that support. And, with the SPX closing in on the 6770SPX level (technically 6770.35), we are very close to an invalidation of the wave count shown on the 5-minute SPX chart.  So, will yet another downside set up bite the dust after a successful test of 6550SPX support?I cannot answer that one just yet, but it is not looking good for it to hold due to how much we have retraced.  But, until we actually break out to 6770.36, the count remains alive.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Pushing Upper Resistance - Market Analysis for Nov 24th, 2025

With the SPX pushing higher today, we have reached the .764 retracement of what I am counting as an a-wave decline within wave 3 of an ending diagonal.  We are also just below a downtrend line, as you can see on the 5-minute chart.As I outlined the positive divergence on the 60-minute MACD as we were hitting the support box, we are now approaching the resistance box again. If this is indeed a b-wave rally, then we should simply strike that box, and turn down.  That is how technicals work in a corrective bounce, as opposed to hitting the box and consolidating during a bull move.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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