Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for May 25th, 2022

As I noted overnight and this morning, the rally into the high yesterday afternoon/evening is an overlapping rally. Therefore, it can count as either a leading diagonal for wave [i] of iii, or a b-wave in a bigger wave ii. So, due to the potential for the more expanded wave ii, I have adjusted support to the .764 retracement of wave i. So, in summary, as long as we remain below the overnight high, pressure remains down. And, should we break down below the .764 retracement of wave i, then it opens the door to the 3767SPX region and a lower low.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Bullish Set Up - Market Analysis for May 24th, 2022

I know the title of the article may sound more bullish than we need to be at this moment, but I am going to highlight a potential bullish i-ii [i][ii[ set up on the chart as it is being presented right now in the SPX.As we left the market yesterday, we had completed a potential 5 wave move off the recent low, and were expecting a 2nd wave retrace. Today, the market pushed us to the bottom of our support box, and began a rally off that support. So, as it stands, there is potential for a i-ii, [i][ii] bullish structure to be in place.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Morning Update - Market Analysis for May 24th, 2022

The market is now approaching the lower end of support. But, I do not have a clear bottoming structure for this decline yet. Therefore, we will need to see a micro 4th wave bounce very soon to suggest that support is going to hold. Otherwise, if we see a sustained break of support, then it again opens the door to a test of the 3756SPX region.Again, remember, in order to gain a strong indication that the market has bottomed, we need to complete 5 waves up, a corrective 3-wave pullback, and then rally over the prior high of the initial 5 waves up. We are not there yet.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Initial Signs Of A Bottom

I have added pivots to the chart, as well as a support on the SPX chart between 3875-3915SPX -- so, to put this very simply, as long as we now hold over support, and then break out through the pivot, we have the potential to continue higher towards the 4150+ region to complete a larger degree 5-wave structure off the low.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Friday Flush? - Market Analysis for May 19th, 2022

With the market still pushing the prior lows overnight and this morning, I have no clear indications that any bottom has yet been struck. In fact, the rally off the low has been quite overlapping. Of course, those bullish could claim this is a leading diagonal off the low. But, as most of you know, I do not trust leading diagonals as trading cues, as they are too similar to corrective structures. So, my overall perspective remains the same. Until the market is able to take us over this week’s high in an impulsive structure (and preferably with a 1-2 breakout over the high of waves 1), I simply cannot turn bullish just yet.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

No Bottom Yet In Metals, But May Still Be Stuck In A 4th

I have been noting of late that silver has been providing us with the clearest perspective in the metals complex of late, which is why I have been so keenly focused on its movements.For those following me on Friday, you would remember that I was expecting an imminent bottom in silver, so much so that I even suggested a “lotto-type” trade on the long side in silver Friday morning. But, I was not sure if that rally was going to be a corrective rally in wave 4 within this c-wave of a more expanded wave [2], or if the bottom had been struck, and we were starting the next impulsive rally higher.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

A Few More Thoughts This Evening

The frustration has increased many-fold, even though the market has not even made a lower low yet. And, believe me, I can clearly understand your frustration. Even though I began warning at the end of 2022 regarding my expectation for the largest correction to be seen since we bottomed in March of 2020, I clearly did not expect that we would be dropping down this low in this correction, even though I had it on the daily chart for the last 3-4 months. I genuinely expected that the 4000-4100SPX region was going to be the max we would see. But, that still does not change my inability to be able to count the market as completed in its bull market structure.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

At Support - Market Analysis for May 18th, 2022

The market has made it clear that the high yesterday was either the c-wave of the yellow wave iv, or the top of a green wave [i] off a wave [4] low. And, as I write this update, we are testing the support for a potential green wave [ii]. While the .618 retracement of [i] is around the 3940SPX region, I am sure many are looking for a potential gap-fill in the 3930SPX region. But, I think that is generally the maximum room we can give the bulls if they intend on proving that a bottom is indeed in place.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Decision Time - Market Analysis for May 17th, 2022

The market has done a wonderful job of taking us back up to the 4070SPX region. But, as I noted earlier today, we still have one question left, which revolves around whether yesterday’s consolidation was a 4th wave in the 5-wave structure off the recent lows, or if was actually a 2nd wave.As I noted yesterday, the ES had a potential of counting 5 waves up off the recent lows, which would have made yesterday’s consolidation a 2nd wave. I am presenting that as our blue count, which is a very aggressive bullish count.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for May 17th, 2022

With the market pushing through the high from yesterday, we have a question that needs to be answered:Is that consolidation yesterday a 4th wave (either in the c-wave of wave iv in yellow or in wave [i]) or is it a 2nd wave?I believe the answer lies in the pivot overhead. And, I am focused on the 4110ES region, the bottom of the pivot. I am sorry to move the resistance by 40 or so points, but the nature of the action forces me to do so.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

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