Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Too Much Of A Mess

With today’s rally, the structure has not really provided any clarity to the bigger picture. In fact, there is still some potential to drop one more time. While we did hit the .236 retracement of what may have been the wave [3] top, we did not approach the [a]=[c] on the decline in the 4475-85SPX region. So, there is still even some potential for another drop.On the rally, the structure is looking quite corrective thus far. This further adds some probability to the yellow count again.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Deeper 2nd Wave - Market Analysis for Dec 1st, 2021

With the action we are seeing in the metals right now, I hope you now understand why I wait for my set up before I get aggressive on these charts. For now, I am still viewing all these charts as being in their respective 2nd waves. While we have dropped a bit deeper than I would normally expect after an expanded b-wave, we are still well within standard expectations for a 2nd wave. In fact, we are now approaching the .618 retracements in GDX and GDXJ, and may even extend a bit below that, as the 5th wave seems to need a micro 4th and 5th wave before this completes.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

We Came Up Woefully Short

With the break down below 4540SPX today, I have to give much more credence to the potential that wave [3] came up woefully short of its ideal target. While I am still going to leave the green count as it is presented on the chart, the next rally will likely be moving me into the yellow count, assuming that it is corrective in nature.Currently, the support below us is pointing towards the 4475/85SPX region, which is the .236 retracement of wave [3], assuming it has completed. And, that is the typical target for the a-wave of [4]. Thereafter, I am still expecting a rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Wild Action - Market Analysis for Dec 1st, 2021

Normally, when I see wild action like this, it is often suggestive of corrective wave structure, or an ending diagonal to a c-wave. Therefore, as I have been warning all morning, we will need to see an impulsive follow through over 4650SPX to suggest that wave iv is done.As the market began a rally overnight, I outlined a pivot on the ES that had to hold, and then pointed us up to the 4650 region to potentially complete a 5-wave rally. That seems to be what we completed this morning at today’s high.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Bulls Failed The Test

With the market turning down at our pivot yesterday, it is quite clear that the bulls have failed their initial test. But, the battle is not yet over.While we made a marginally lower low today, it has reset the potential for wave iv. And, as per our weekend analysis, we really should hold the 4540/50SPX region if this indeed a wave iv pullback, as per the green count. In fact, Luke Miller’s Bayesian analysis, which has been outstanding in 2021, calculates a 68% probability for the green count.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years

When caution is thrown to the wind, we begin to recognize that the market may be moving into a dangerous euphoric state from which a long-term bear market can begin. And, while it may be easier to bury your head in the sand, I strongly urge you to take to heart what I am about to say, as it will likely have ripple effects for generations to come.Recently, I read that the board of directors of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target. What makes this even more striking is that this same pension fund lowered their investment-return target just a few months ago.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Big Test For The Bulls

With the market rallying off of Friday’s low (despite many telling me that the market does not bottom on a Friday), we are now approaching a main Fibonacci Pinball test for the SPX/ES.Let me explain. We use our Fibonacci Pinball structure not just to outline accurate targets in the market, but it is an amazing tool in determining whether a rally is corrective or impulsive. You see, once we have an initial 1-2 off a low, the market will then rally towards the 1.00 extension of that 1-2 structure. In a bullish impulsive structure, it will pullback correctively and hold the .618-.764 extension of waves 1-2 (which is what I outline as the “pivot”).
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Markets Still Holding Support Into The Holiday

Yesterday we saw the equity markets move lower and see a small bounce off of the lower end of the support levels that I wanted to see hold to keep the most immediately bullish counts alive. Today the markets opened slightly lower but did manage to still hold over support and have since pushed higher as we approach the close before the Thanksgiving holiday. While this price action is certainly supportive of my base case shown in green that we have bottomed in the wave (2) of larger wave iii we still have quite a bit of work to do before we can confirm that this is indeed the case.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Added Thoughts - Market Analysis for Nov 23rd, 2021

I wanted to add a few thoughts to what Mike said this afternoon, which I posted as an alert in the trading room. My counts are just slightly different than Mikes, but they all resolve in the same manner as long as we hold support.With the break of the bigger diagonal I was tracking yesterday, it has forced me to consider alternatives, as I outlined last night.For now, I think I prefer to consider wave iii as completed at this time. But, I may be doing so for risk management purposes, as I will explain below.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Key Spot As The Equity Markets Test The Lower End Of Support

ES/SPX - After moving lower overnight we really have not done too much here during the regular hours trading session. With the deep retrace on the ES down off of the highs, the only way to count the move up off of the 4622 low is as a diagonal as there is overlap within the entire structure. The question at hand is whether that move is an ending diagonal to finish off the yellow wave iii or as a leading diagonal as part of a wave (1) of the larger wave (iii) per the green count.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago