Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Downside Follow Through - Market Analysis for Sep 2nd, 2025

As outlined in the weekend update, the market was set up for further downside early this week.   Moreover, I also noted in the weekend update that we did not have any structure in place that projected more than a test of the important support below us on the 5-minute SPX chart.  And, that seems to be what we are getting today.Furthermore, the decline today seems to complete a potential initial 5-wave structure off last week’s high – which is easier to see from the ES chart. So, I am able to maintain the red count on the chart – at least for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Silver Break Out?

Silver has now taken out the resistance I noted over the weekend.  Of course, this now opens silver up to starting its run to back to its all time highs.  But it will clearly not be direct.  For now, I am still going to give the (b) wave just a bit more room.  But, if we take out this adjusted resistance box, then we are either in a big wave 1 of wave (3) or we are actually in wave 3 of (3).   Both counts are quite reasonable if we are already breaking out.  Therefore, the next buying opportunity I would look towards IF . . again, IF we are breaking out is wave 2 or wave 4.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Still Squeezing Higher To Target

As you can see on the 5-minute SPX chart, we are only a few points to the minimum target expectation.   But, in truth, the ideal target is actually higher in the 6528SPX region, which is the 1.764 extension of waves 1-2 in this ending diagonal which began earlier this month at 6212SPX.So, while we clearly do not have an initial indication of a top being struck, I am on the lookout for a reversal now.Today’s pullback low at 6467SPX is our micro support.  And, as long as we remain over that support, this can continue to squeeze higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Following Through On Upside Potential

Today the market continued to grind higher, filling out what has been an incomplete pattern to the upside. The move remains quite sloppy, which continues to suggest that we are likely dealing with an Ending Diagonal to finish off this rally. As is often the case with Ending Diagonals, the structure is less reliable and more difficult to track with precision compared to a clean impulsive wave pattern. With that in mind, we’ll continue to focus on the key Fibonacci levels overhead as the next resistance/target zone, while waiting for a clear break of support to signal that a top may be in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Getting Back To Resistance

With this rally in the metals complex, all three charts are now approaching their resistance regions.   In GDX, not only are we striking the top of the long-term target box I placed on the daily chart last year, we are also approaching the smaller degree target box which is at the top of the larger target box.In support of this expectation, the NEM is also striking its 1.236 extension of waves 1-2 in this (c) wave, which is a typical target for a 3rd wave of an ending diagonal (up to as high as the 1.382 extension).  Therefore, I have now moved into my alternative count that I presented in yellow, and it is now my primary view.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Do We Dare Look For More?

With the market pulling back from last week's high, we have struck the top of the support box on our 5-minute SPX chart.  So, the question is if this is all we get, or do we dare look lower into the support box?Normally, a c-wave provides us with a standard 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure.  That also means that wave 1 of the c-wave is usually a standard 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure as well.  At this time, I cannot say that I see a standard 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure developed off today's low. As of right now, it looks like an overlapping 3-wave structure.  Of course, it may morph into a leading diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Slow Summer Day - Market Analysis for Aug 25th, 2025

The market seems to be meandering lower today, and it still very well holds within the expectations for a b-wave pullback.  While I MAY be able to classify today’s rally in the SPX as a leading diagonal (of course, which I do not see as a highly reliable cue), the futures look very corrective in this bounce. This leads me to the conclusion that we are in the midst of the b-wave pullback.So, as long as we remain below Friday’s high, I am going to maintain the expectation of a continued pullback into tomorrow.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Is A Bit Of A Mess

The market has been relatively flat over the past several days, not giving us much movement to work with. Furthermore, the movement that we have seen has been quite sloppy and corrective in nature in both directions. This makes it difficult to have a high degree of certainty as to which direction this will move in the near term. Additionally, there are several viable paths that we have to be on the lookout for as we move into the end of the week. Avi did an excellent job of laying out these potentials on the smaller timeframes, so I am going to use this write-up as a baseline for this update with some additional color commentary.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

What A Mess!

That title really conveys my frustration with these wave structures.  There is nothing that I would call high probability in the smaller degree simply because of the extreme overlapping structures with which we are being presented in the silver and gold charts.  In gold, I am still viewing the purple and green counts as the most likely potentials.  But, they both would still seemingly need a bigger bounce before any further downside is seen.  But, if we see a move lower in a more direct fashion, I would begin to view the yellow count with a bit higher probability.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Testing Support - Market Analysis for Aug 20th, 2025

With the follow-through this morning, into the support box, the market has now struck the ideal target for a 4th wave in an ending diagonal.  You see, in the great majority of ending diagonal structures, we see overlap within waves (1) and (4).  And, this morning, the market provided that overlap before it began its bounce back up into the afternoon.However, being a purist, I can count for one more lower low as long as the pivot box on the 15-minute ES chart holds as resistance.  But, clearly, we have enough waves in place now and have struck the ideal target to consider all of wave (4) as complete.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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