Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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Evidence of a corrective bounce

The market provided plenty of whipsaw today, but EW helped us navigate the volatility pretty well. Once price dropped below the pre-market low at 4456, it signaled that the bounce into yesterday's high was only 3 waves, and therefore likely corrective.Then the next question assuming a corrective b-wave bounce was if it completed already or did it want to fill out as a wider flat. Support for wave B of b in the wider flat was cited between 4445.50 - 4437.75, which was undercut slightly before turning strongly back up into the close.
by Garrett Patten - 3 days ago

Are We Ready For 4600?

To answer the question, that is what my primary count suggests as long as we remain over 4400SPX. But, what does today’s rally do to our overall view?Well, as I noted yesterday, the action of late has certainly made this region more complex. So, I am going to take you step by step again through my thought process.First, since the ES has a higher level for wave 4 than SPX, I have to wait until we exceed the 4480ES level (wave 4 in the ending diagonal) to confirm the ending diagonal has completed. Until that happens, we can still loop down again to test the 4400-4420SPX region.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Still Hovering Over Support

There really is not a lot I have to adjust from the analysis yesterday afternoon, since we have not really moved much in the bigger picture. But, I am going to add a few more points.First, I want to again reiterate the risk/reward potential we have before us for as long as we hold the 4400SPX region. In fact, today’s action has even provided a small amount of positive divergence on the 60-minute MACD. So, I think it is reasonable to expect a rally from this support.Second, I have changed the alternatives just a bit.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Hitting Support - Market Analysis for Sep 13th, 2021

As I write this update, we are now hitting our support box on the 5-minute SPX chart. Moreover, we are simultaneously striking the top of the zone on the 60-minute MACD at which the markets often bottom out.So, a little earlier today, I posted the following note:“We are hitting the top end of support. We now have about 50 points of risk, as we reside over the main support of 4400SPX. From here, we can rally to 4600-4630, with a smaller degree probability that we continue to 4900SPX from here. So, considering the 50 point or so risk, this seems like a reasonable long entry perspective with stops just below 4400SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Market Consolidating Over Support

After pushing higher to new highs last week we have seen the market pullback on what is so far a fairly clear corrective wave pattern. This pullback occurred after getting a fairly clear five-wave move up off of the 8/18 low. As we are still counting the pattern as incomplete into the highs last week along with what does look to be a corrective move to the downside the base case remains that this move down off of the highs is simply a pullback that still should resolve higher as long as we can hold support. That support zone current comes in at the 4462-4385 zone below which represents the 38.2-76.4 retrace zone of the wave b / (ii).
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Room for lower - Market Analysis for Sep 8th, 2021

The market will likely close negative again today, still sliding lower off the high made last week where it looks like 5 waves up completed from the August low. Therefore, price continues to cooperate with expectations for a local top in place and at least a corrective pullback targeting standard retrace support in progress. Under that assumption, I lean towards today's low being a slight extension of an initial A-wave down from last week's high, and price currently working on a B-wave bounce.Price has already reached the .382 retrace of the A-wave down, enough to consider the B-wave potentially complete but it seems pretty shallow and short-lived.
by Garrett Patten - 1 week ago

Attempting a Local Top

The market continued to slide following the open, making a new low on the month this morning. Therefore, price has provided the initial indication of a local top potentially forming, following what still looks like a very reasonable 5 waves up from the August low complete into last week's high.If the 5 waves up is the start to another setup for further extension higher, then a corrective pullback as a b-wave or wave ii has room to retrace back to the standard .382 - .618 support between 4471.25 - 4423.75. A break below there is needed to otherwise open the door to a more significant top in place and larger degree correction looming.
by Garrett Patten - 1 week ago

Simply Grinding Away - Market Analysis for Sep 2nd, 2021

Yes, folks, this is what bull markets do. They continue to grind and grind higher until they complete their respective wave, pullback sharply to throw a few people off the bull-train, and then continue on their path higher. That is exactly what we have been seeing for months.But, there is nothing I can add to yesterday’s update. And, since the micro charts are really not providing us with much clarity, there really is nothing I am able to add to our understanding of where we currently reside.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Poised For 4600SPX - Market Analysis for Sep 1st, 2021

There really is not much for me to add to yesterday’s update, and the analysis I have been providing of late. So, I will simply reiterate certain points that are important at this time.Currently, support is at 4468SPX, followed by 4400SPX. Below that, we have the ideal target for wave 4 in the 4240-70SPX region. And, we have a major floor in the market between 4100-4165SPX.Our next micro resistance region is 4550-55SPX, with 4600-4630SPX above that. As long a we remain below those resistances, I still very much expect a wave 4 pullback towards the ideal target in the 4240-70SPX region.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

I Am Forced To Add An Alternative

Since the current primary count is rather clear to me, which is that we are rallying to complete a more extended wave 3 pointing towards the 1.236 extension of waves [1] and [2] in the 4600SPX region, it forces me to come up with an alternative count. And, since I have absolutely no reasonable bearish alternatives on the charts, the only bullish alternative I am able to come up with at this time is really uber-bullish. But, it is simply an alternative right now, for which I have no conviction at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago