Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Market Holds Support and Pushes to New Highs

Overnight, the market broke the upper support level that I had discussed yesterday, but managed to hold the smaller degree support level just below and continued to push higher today. So from an analysis perspective, not too much has changed today, as the count still remains relatively full and quite extended from a Fibonacci perspective. While I do still remain cautious in this region, until we see an actual break of support and/or a clear five-wave move to the downside, we simply do not have any confirmation that even a local top has been struck just yet.Zooming into the ES chart, support has now been moved down to the 5842–5776 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

This Correction In Metals Just Got More Complex

I am sorry to say, but this correction in the metals complex just got more complex.  Let’s start with GDX, which is showing us a rather complex pattern right now.With GDX dropping in a more direct fashion, it opens the door to two potential paths, ultimately taking us much lower in the coming weeks.   If you would look at the attached 8-minute GDX chart, you will see that we have broken down below the last pullback low with 3 waves so far.  That leaves the door open to either complete all 5 waves down which likely suggests a larger a-wave, which would be following by a b-wave bounce, which could take us several weeks itself.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Market Still Hovering Near Recent Highs – Patience Remains Key

The market continued to consolidate near the highs established yesterday, with price action still holding well above even our uppermost support levels on the ES chart. As such, from a smaller-degree perspective, we do not yet have any confirmed signal that a local top has been struck.From a larger-degree standpoint, however, the wave count is becoming increasingly stretched in this region and we are also quite extended from a Fibonacci perspective. While confirmation of a top will require a sustained break of key support, this extended pattern keeps me cautious in this region. Zooming into the ES chart, I’m currently showing upper support in the 5902–5876 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Certainly “Feels” Bullish - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2025

If we look back to the chart I attached below from April 7, the last thing we “felt” was bullish.   Yet, that was the time to be looking to layer into long positions for the rally we expected to the target/resistance box overhead on that chart, which is what I outlined in my analysis at the time.Today, we are now slightly above that target/resistance box, and I am seeing one article after another declaring that it is time to buy because the bull market is back.  The masses are proclaiming that the "all clear" sign has been given for the market.  Everyone is back to being certain this is bullish again.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Pushing To Extremes Again

First, I want to note that I am still expecting that risk-off action in the market, but only once this rally finally tapers off.  Second, I do also want to remind you that I did warn over the weekend that “[u]ntil we actually begin that break-down, the market can always choose to push higher to the top of the target/resistance box on the 60-minute SPX chart.”  And, the market has clearly chosen to take us to that region and we are hovering there at this time.But, again, I am still expecting that pullback over the coming weeks.  Yet, there are times the market takes us to extremes before it finally turns.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Relatively Full Now - Market Analysis for May 8th, 2025

As I said just an hour or so ago, we now have a relatively full pattern to the upside, along with some nice negative divergence on the 60-minute MACD.  Moreover, the daily MACD is now hitting the bottom of its resistance box.  Can the market still continue to extend?  Sure.   But, recognize that risk is now rising for a potential reversal when the count is sound and full.  What we are now seeking is a break-down now below yesterday's low to signal that a top is likely in place. So, below yesterday’s low and we are likely in the expected pullback, and we will then need to assess the nature of the pullback to determine which counts to apply.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Rally Topping? - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2025

While I was expecting the metals complex to see a b-wave rally in GDX and GLD, the gold rally has begun a bit earlier than I had expected, as I was looking for a bit lower first.  But, the market had other ideas.In both GDX and gold/GLD, it really seems as the more likely perspective is that this rally is a b-wave.   In fact, the rally in GDX and gold have retraced to the .764 region of the prior decline.  And, while I can make an argument for a 5-wave decline from the high in GDX, I really do not see a clear 5-waves down yet in gold.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Unreliable Structures - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2025

With the market spiking below the 5601ES support level, it has provided us with a minimum pattern for a leading diagonal for wave i down, which can be seen in red on the 15-minute ES chart. While I view leading diagonals as not reliable trading cues or structures, this one came up 3 points short of the 1.618 extension of red waves [i][ii], which is the minimum expectation I would have for a 5th wave in a leading diagonal.  This does make this even a bit less reliable.  So, for now, I am going to leave the wave iv on the table, allowing for one more higher high, especially since the 5601ES level did not see a sustained break.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Bulls Trying To Hang On

In the overnight action, the ES broke down below the initial signal line of 5649ES.  And, thus far, it has held to the 2nd support in the region of the waves iv/(iv).   If this support holds, then we can still see one more rally before this [c] wave tops out.  But, do take note that once we break down below the 1.00 extension during a pullback from the 1.618 extension it means that it will not recover in the great majority of instances.  So, probabilities are increasing that a top is in place for now, but we do need to break down below today’s low to make it likely.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Topping Action? - Market Analysis for May 5th, 2025

Whether the market has actually struck its top to this [c] wave rally, or has another push higher is not something I can state with certainty.  But, as long as the ES remains over the 1.00 extension at the 5649ES level, then I am leaving the door open that today’s pullback is wave iv of wave 5, with one more push higher yet to be seen to complete wave 5 of the [c] wave.So, that would mean that a break down below 5649ES would be an initial signal that a top has potentially been struck, with follow through below the iv/[iv] increasing that probability.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago
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