Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

We Have Hit Our Target

As I write this update, we have struck a low of 4276SPX, which is effectively striking the top of the target/support we set before this decline began in earnest. While I wanted to see the 4274SPX level hold as my primary target, I still do not feel comfortable in viewing a full 5-wave decline as having completed in this potential [c] wave decline. Rather, I still am looking for another 4-5 to complete this [c] wave. Therefore, that would suggest we have a strong probability of getting a bit lower.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Need Evidence of Starting a 4th Wave Bounce

The market curled back up shortly after the open, but so far has failed to exceed the signal resistance cited in the morning update at 4380. That level still needs to be cleared in order to treat wave iii of (c) complete and a wave iv bounce starting.If price maintains above the morning low and does get above 4380, then 4424 - 4478 is the current target range that can be reached as wave iv of (c) before completing and turning back down for one more low as wave v of (c).

by Garrett Patten - 4 days ago

Where Are We?

Well, the break of 4400SPX adds extra probability points to the side of us heading down to the 4230-4274SPX region in the coming weeks. That is the simple part. Before I begin, I want to note that our resistance now is 4401SPX. And, I have two counts suggesting that as resistance. So, let’s get to it.First, despite the rally on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning throwing me off a bit, I posted this summary as an alert on Wednesday morning:“I am leaning to the downside as long as we remain below 4465SPX. Over that level, and then I have to turn somewhat neutral. And, over 4512SPX, then I have to be bullish looking for 4800SPX.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Pattern Is Still Far From Ideal As The Market Chops Around In The Same Region

As Avi noted yesterday the pattern has been “off” on this decline and the potential wave 2 was getting quite larger for a standard impulse. While we did see some follow-through to the downside yesterday that downside was stopped short of the ideal region, we needed to see follow-through and turned higher in the afternoon and into today. The level in which we stopped, and the depth of the move higher has left us with a pattern that is far from ideal and still chopping around the same region we have been in for the past several weeks.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

It’s Decision Time

Metals are at that point where we should see a decision within the next day or two.I am not going to harp on and on in repeating what I have been saying over these last few weeks. I am going to keep this VERY simple right now.There is strongest potential that GLD/gold has bottomed. But, I am going to wait until I have confirmation in the other two charts before I make this a high probability.So, let’s discuss the other two charts. Both are at resistance. As you can see from the silver chart, I have provided a path through which the market can prove to us that it has finally bottomed.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Something Is Still “Off”

Last week, I wrote about how the 2nd wave was really getting quite relatively large for a normal 2nd wave structure, which began bothering me about the pattern. Yesterday, we had a VERY shallow retrace, that did not even reach the .382 retracement of what we had labeled as wave i of 3 down, and we followed through to the downside nonetheless. Today, the market had the opportunity to see a sustained break of 4427SPX, and only spiked it and then came back up through it.There are times when the market provides to you subtle messages that the standard expectation is not going to follow through. And, this may be one of those times.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Set-up Continues To Develop

Let’s take a moment to review our Fibonacci Pinball structure. It all starts with having a 1-2 in place. While what we are calling a wave 2 is a bit larger than I would normally expect, as I said last week, I am still keeping the primary count the blue count.Now, once waves 1-2 are in place, we set up our projections based upon that structure. Therefore, it is quite common to see wave i of 3 target the .618 extension of waves 1-2. Today, the SPX dropped 1 point below the .618 extension of the current 1-2 structure, and began to bounce.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Downside Setup Is Still In Place But The Pattern Remains Sloppy

After striking a higher on Monday the market ground its way lower giving us what can count as a sloppy five-wave move to the downside. While we can certainly count this five-wave move as the start of the wave 3 down off of the 4541 high the sloppy nature of this initial move leaves us still awaiting further confirmation of a top with a break of some key support levels below.Zooming into the five-minute chart the next key support zone that I am watching below comes in at the 4443-4435 zone below. This represents the 76.4-88.6 retrace zone from the move up off of the 4428 low.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

It's Time To Do Something

For the last 5 trading days, silver has been in a sideways grind. And, it’s about time for it to do something.As you can see from the attached chart, I am considering the current set up as a (i)(ii) structure to the downside to complete wave v of 3. Of course, when you have a sideways grind as we have seen, it can easily lend itself to other interpretations. But, for now, this one seems to be the most “reasonable.” But, there is another count with us still being in the wave [ii] after a leading diagonal complete at today’s low, which can allow for one more push higher to complete the wave [ii].

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Addendum To Today's Update

With the drop today really only counting best as a leading diagonal, I want to reiterate that I really do not trust leading diagonals. So, I would want to see a break down below 4430SPX to make the downside much more likely now. And, as I posted in the room, "you may be giving up a few points, but you will likely have a much more reliable trade if you wait for a break down of 4430. OR, you can wait for a break of 4405 (the .764 extension to the downside), and set your stops just over the ,618 extension in the 4425/4430SPX region. This would be the least risky trade imho.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

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