Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

It’s Crunch Time

Clearly, when we came into this week, I was certainly not expecting to see weakness like this. So, I apologize if I did not properly prepare you for this market weakness.You see, when we are in a bull market, more often than not the market takes the path most bullish. So, experience has taught me that during a bull market I have to side with the most reasonable and immediate bullish wave structure. Therefore, the potential for the yellow i-ii set up was quite low on my list of probabilities. The most I would have expected is a wave iv within wave 3. That is what the market is now putting to the test at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

If We Have To Shift Perspectives

Clearly, this was not my expectation for a drop this deep. But, price is price, and we have to respect it.I have added in how the alternative count can play out, and a break below 4060SPX makes 4085SPX resistance, and would suggest we can see a direct move down in the [c] wave of yellow ii.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Testing Important Support - Market Analysis for May 12th, 2021

I wanted to send out another update today, as the market is testing important support right now. As I noted earlier today, there is a bit of support just below us now, as low as 4070SPX. But, in truth, I really need to see the market hold in this region right now, and give us a wave iv bounce. However, if we see continued weakness below 4080, that is a strong warning that the yellow count may be in play. Will provide another update later today.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Support Adjustment - Market Analysis for May 12th, 2021

With the premarket structure seemingly pointing to a lower low as long as we remain below 4170SPX, I have been doing some extra work on support. Of course, if the market can move through the 4170SPX region today, then this is a moot point. While 4095SPX is my ideal support up here, I will need to see a sustained break of that support to consider the yellow alternative down to the 3900-3950SPX region. Again, I do not think we drop that low at this point. So, allow me to explain what I mean by a sustained break in this scenario. Right now, the .382 retracement of wave iii is the 4080SPX region, and the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Wave V of 3 Should Be Next

The market wasted no time this morning telling us that this is a c-wave of a bigger wave iv. And, while this has certainly provided us with a detour, I am still expecting wave v to rally us to 4330+, with an ideal target just north of 4400SPX.In the smaller degree, we seem to have potentially completed a 5-wave c-wave down in wave iv right into our 4095-4120SPX support region. But, I am not yet certain that we have completed that c-wave.While I can count the minimum number of waves to the downside in the futures to suggest that a 5-wave decline has completed, the SPX does leave a bit of a question as to that potential.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Slight Change In Plans

With the market just spilling its guts into the close, I thought it would be appropriate if I wrote an update this evening.To be honest, this looks and smells like the alternative count I have in blue on the SPX. Clearly, this was not my preference, but it certainly has some benefits if this does play out in the coming days.First, I am probably going to adopt the blue alternative as my primary count by tomorrow morning IF, again, IF the ES does not provide us with a rally off the low we just struck, rather than a corrective "bounce.".
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

The Bull Market Grinds On

While I would have preferred the market to continue higher today to complete the micro structure in wave v of [iii] on the 5-minute SPX chart, it seems the market had other ideas. But, rallies followed by market grinding are the hallmarks of a bull market. So, I am going to make this update quite simple. As long as we hold the 4205-4220SPX upper support, then I am going to continually to look higher in the near term to complete this wave v of 3, with a minimum target of 4330SPX, and an ideal target of 4440SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Sentiment Speaks: Sell In May? Ain’t No Way

This was quite a week we just had in the markets. Was your head spinning?In this week’s article, I am going to discuss the employment report published on Friday, as well as a report that was put out by the Fed this past week.Employment ReportEarly in the week, we saw an 80-point decline in the SP500. Was there any consensus reason cited for such a decline? Nope.Then on Thursday, we saw a major ramp up in buying in the SP500 right into the close, as well as the overnight session. Was there any consensus reason cited for such a strong rally? Nope.And, now comes the big head scratcher.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Bulls Still In Control

Earlier this morning, I wrote the following update to get everyone appropriately focused upon where we reside in the market:Let's take a few moments to set our parameters in SPX based upon our Fibonacci Pinball structure. The bulls should be given the benefit of the doubt as long as we remain over this week's low, and I am going to interpret the chart from that perspective.As we know, we are tracking a wave v of 3 with an ideal target in the 4400SPX region. That we can see from the 60-minute SPX chart.However, we are also trying to track the structure which is going to take us there.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Trying To Follow-Through After Finding A Bottom

After seeing a deep retrace yesterday that broke the upper support levels that we had been watching we saw the market rebond off of those lows. I noted yesterday that the initial signal that we may have formed a bottom would first come with a break over the 4151 level on the ES followed by a full and clear five-wave move up off of lows.Today we did break that 4151 level on the ES and the case could be made that we have five up off of the lows. Unfortunately that five up is far from ideal, and I would consider it as borderline "clear".
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago