Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

B Wave Held Where It Needed To

Today, we saw the market continue its move higher into b-wave territory, only to turn down right at key resistance and push lower into the afternoon session. As it stands, we now have what appears to be a fairly clean three-wave move up off last week’s low, giving us an early indication that a top may have been struck in this b-wave.That said, we still need further confirmation. Specifically, we want to see a break of the key support levels I outlined yesterday to strengthen the case that wave b has indeed completed.From here, the next steps for confirmation are a break of the 6283 level, followed by a move below last week’s low at 6237.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

3rd Wave or B-wave? Both Have Same Outcome

With the GDX moving beyond my prior expectation, the question that is on everyone minds is what this means to the overall chart?   And, the basic answer is “not very much.”You see, either this rally is an expanded b-wave, or it is simply a continuation of the 3rd wave.  In both cases, we likely still see a sizeable decline before the 5th wave rally takes hold.  The main reason I am assuming that the 5th wave has not begun is because we have seen no consolidation that would be deep enough or large enough to be considered the wave 4.  Therefore, the most reasonable assumption is that this is either an expanded b-wave within wave 4, or wave 3 is simply extending.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Not Much Has Changed – Still Trading Within the b-Wave Territory

There’s not a whole lot to add in today’s update, as the market continues to chop within b-wave retracement territory, holding above micro support, but still trading below micro resistance.At this stage, the pattern at the smaller degree remains unclear, offering little in the way of reliable guidance from a structural standpoint. Until we see a more defined setup, we’re essentially stuck in a holding pattern.That said, as long as price remains below resistance, I’m still leaning toward a downside resolution on the smaller-degree timeframes. Once (or if) we get that move, we’ll need to carefully assess how price reacts as we approach the larger support levels outlined below.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Still In B Wave Territory

The market took a bit of a breather and didn't see too much movement after yesterday's retracement higher. So with that, there really is not too much change from yesterday's update. There are a few new micro price support levels that I am watching on the ES, but other than that, the analysis is for the most part unchanged from yesterday. As I noted yesterday, I’m placing greater emphasis on key retracement resistance levels to guide the near-term outlook. As long as we remain below those key retrace zones, my primary expectation is still for lower levels to unfold in the days and weeks ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Quick Point On Gold

As of now, we have 3 waves off the low struck in gold at the end of July.  However, we do not have 5 waves down, unless it morphs into a leading diagonal, which still needs a lower low off yesterday's high.  But, if gold pushes to another high in this rally off the low from the end of July, that would make this rally 5 waves up, and I would have to strongly reconsider further immediate downside.That then brings me to a question as to why we would have 5 waves up here.  And, I do not have a good answer as I still have no confidence that we have a completed bigger 4th wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Finds A Local Bottom, But Remains Under Resistance For Now

After last week’s sharp decline, today we saw the market push higher. However, the structure of this bounce off the recent lows remains somewhat unclear. For now, I’m placing greater emphasis on key retracement resistance levels to guide the near-term outlook.As long as we remain below those key retrace zones, my primary expectation is still for lower levels to unfold in the days and weeks ahead. That said, a sustained move back above these retracement levels would prevent me from fully ruling out the potential for another higher high, as we have yet to decisively break key support levels to the downside, the confirmation needed to firmly establish that a top is in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Pattern Fills Out to the Upside, but Market Remains Over Support… For Now

Heading into yesterday’s close, the downside action appeared corrective in nature, and the structure to the upside seemed to be missing a wave. That missing wave was filled in overnight, as we saw a push higher that potentially completes the pattern. Since then, we've pulled back from the overnight high and are currently trading slightly in the red, with the decline off the high taking the form of a three-wave move, though sharper in character than what we saw yesterday.So, while we remain over support for now, I’m approaching the long side with continued caution. We still lack a clear five-wave structure to the downside, and support has yet to break.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

GDX Has A Lot Of Catching Up To Do

With silver leading to the downside of late, I am now tracking it as completed its wave v of (iii) of 3 in its c-wave down.  That would mean I am looking for a bounce in wave (iv) of 3 in the near term.  As you can see from the 8-minute chart, I have lowered resistance.  And, as long as the next bounce is corrective and respects resistance, I will be continuing to look lower in the coming days.  Another point I want to make about the silver action is that we can see in real time how the 5th waves are quite extended in the metals.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Fed Moves the Market… Nowhere

Heading into today, market participants were sitting tight, bracing for what they hoped would be a market-moving announcement from the Fed. That announcement came and went, and the market barely flinched. The FOMC meeting turned out to be a non-event, leaving us right where we were yesterday: hovering over support in what still counts best as a corrective three-wave decline off the high, and with a Russell 2000 chart that would still look far more complete with another push higher.So, from a structural standpoint, nothing has changed. The parameters I outlined in yesterday’s update remain fully intact.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Moving Sideways But Still Well Above Support

The market saw a small move to the downside today, but we're still holding well above all of our key support levels. With that in mind, there’s not much to update on the SPX/ES charts. The support levels remain unchanged from the past several sessions, and as long as those zones remain intact, we simply do not have a signal that a top has been struck.Additionally, the structure on the Russell 2000 (RTY) doesn’t look complete just yet. It would still benefit from another push higher to better align with a typical Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern before any significant top is in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago
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