Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Came Up A Little Short

I am going to keep this update rather simple.Today, the market rallied up to the .500 retracement and was not able to extend up towards the minimum target for which I was looking at the .618 retracement of the prior decline. Moreover, I can also count a micro 5 waves down off today’s high. But, I will add that I do not see the same in the micro structure in IWM.So, I am writing this update a little early to warn you to stay on your toes. As long as we remain below today’s high, pressure can begin to be viewed as being down.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Rally And Consolidation Today

So, what does this rally and consolidation mean today?Well, if the market has the intention of heading higher sooner rather than later, it can easily be counted as the [a][b] of the b-wave rally I have outlined on my 5-minute SPX chart. And, since we are dealing with 3-wave structures, we have to keep in mind that another high could also just be a more extended [a] wave. But, for now, I am just keeping that in the back of my mind. Yet, keep in mind that corrective structures are the most difficult of the Elliott 5-wave configuration.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

A Pullback - Market Analysis for Jul 18th, 2024

Well, it finally happened. The market has given us a pullback. And, this pullback is still more likely going to set us up for another rally before we can again expect another potential topping action.In both the SPX, we have an a-b-c corrective pullback off the recent highs. And, since we are still well over support, I am still going to only view this as being a 4th wave pullback.In the IWM, we have pulled back to the .236 retracement of wave [iii] in green, which is the typical target for an a-wave of wave [iv]. It is reasonable to expect at least a b-wave bounce to begin soon.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Moves Lower But Still Over Support

Today we saw the market move sharply lower with the largest pullback since May. While the action today is certainly quite different than the relentless grind higher that we had seen over the past several months we are still sitting well over upper and lower support. So with that being the case and with what remains an incomplete pattern to the upside unless we are able to see the market give us a sustained break under some key support levels it is still likely that we have a bit more work to do to the upside before a larger degree top is seen.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Silver Has To Make A Decision

While we do have enough waves in place to consider that gold, GDX and NEM have potentially completed 5 waves up off the recent lows, silver still has not.In fact, as the market stands right now, silver struck a 1.00 downside extension today which could represent an a=c corrective structure for wave 4 in the more immediate bullish pattern. But, that means we will need to see it turn up impulsive very soon and complete wave 5 of i in the coming days.However, we have the pivot noted on the 8-minute chart to contend with. If you remember you Fib Pinball, wave 3 of iii targets the 1.00-1.236 extensions of waves i-ii, and then usually bounces back to the .618-.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

IWM Hitting A Target

The IWM is now hitting the 1.236 extension in the yellow count outlined on the 60-minute chart. This is a typical target for a 3rd wave within an ending diagonal, which is what is represented by the yellow count. Of course, the market can choose to continue to extend to the 1.382 extension in the 225.50 region, and I would not necessarily discount that based upon the manner in which the market has been rallying. But, by all measures, we are certainly stretched.Support is now in the 213.50 region, which is the .382 retracement region if the market would top out in wave [iii] right now. Of course, if it continues to extend towards the 1.382 extension, then that support would rise.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Still Trying To Stretch In This Minor 3rd Wave

As per my update over the weekend, I am now counting the SPX and IWM as being in their own minor 3rd waves. In the SPX, we seem to be trying to complete a wave iii within a [c] wave of wave [5] off the October 2022 low, and the IWM seems to also be trying to complete a 3rd wave in its 5th wave of a [c] wave of a larger b-wave.In the SPX, our minor support is 5607SPX, and as long as that is held, the next upside resistance/targets are the 5675SPX region followed by the 5730SPX region.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Five Waves Down?

Today we saw the market finally move lower after what has seemed like a relentless run higher that has continued to extend. Moreover, that move down does count best as five waves off of the high. So with that, we do seem to have at least a local top in place at the moment. We are however still trading over even the uppermost support so while I think it is likely that we will see more downside action in the days ahead we still have some more work to do before we can finally confirm that we have indeed put in a larger degree top as we have been laying out in the bigger timeframe charts.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Next Drop In Metals Will Likely Be Last Buying Opportunity Before Melt-up

I do mean what I say in the title of the update. But, the question still remains what that drop will represent?GDX has been quite strong of late, and we can now consider ourselves as completing 5 waves up off the recent low. Whether that is the blue or green counts on the daily chart is still open for debate. What is not open for much debate is that after the next pullback is seen, and we then rally over whatever high we create on this current rally, that should have us squarely in the melt-up scenario in GDX.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Beyond Reasonable Expectations - Market Analysis for Jul 10th, 2024

I have said this before and I will say this again – this feels, acts and is structured very similarly to the action we saw in the SPX back in late 2019 into early 2020. Nonetheless, the market is clearly beyond any reasonable expectations I had set for us many months ago. While I had outlined many years ago that my ideal target for this final 5th wave off the 2020 low was in the 5350-6000SPX region, I did not have a reasonable wave structure pointing that high, and to be honest, I still do not.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Free 15-Day Trial

• S&P 500 Wave Analysis
• Gold, Silver, Oil & US Dollar Reports
• Stocks, Options, Cryptocurrencies & more
• Live Coaching & Webinars

OUR MEMBERS SAY ...

I live Finance. 80hrs a week corp finance. I trade as a hobby and in my opinion this is the best site in the world for someone to learn about markets... i rue the day when it is no more or its core is changed. there is NO BETTER SITE IN THE WORLD to get the off-cuff input/feedback/knowledge across ALL MARKETS like this site... Thank you to the analysts here who grind out thousands of charts each week.
"GibsonDog" - Trading Room

My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
"AAMilne" - Trading Room

I worked on trading desks at top investment banks for 10 years, then traded on my own for another 8. I've seen 100s of research from the best analysts in the business. Avi and EWT is the only one I'm willing to pay for right now.
"tzeyi" - Seeking Alpha

CNBC had a stat this morning that over the last 20 years 86% of money managers/hedge funds have underperformed the market. They couldn't figure out why that’s the case given how 'smart' these people are. . . . I know my performance since joining the site has skyrocketed!
"HenryH" - Trading Room

I've been managing money since 1981 and ... I've never seen anyone handle fibs like him [Avi].
"halburris" - Seeking Alpha

This is literally the greatest advisory service - bar none.
"MJK" - Trading Room

I’m convinced, EW theory is THE best way to approach markets for investing/trading. Whether you’re scalping micro moves, day trading swing trading or long term investing, EW always has you covered. Most people have a lens or a way they view the market but how consistent over time is it? For myself I like fractals and have made life changing trades off them. But as my trading days add up [and] the value of EW becomes clearer, especially when coupled with fib #s, I have to give credit to you Avi for this!
"bullhammer" - Trading Room

"I'm approaching my one year anniversary in the group and I truly believe this is the best decision I have ever made about a research service. FWIW, I'm a financial advisor and I have been in the industry for over 20 years. I manage over 300MM in assets and have routinely been a council member at every firm I have ever been with. Even though I'm just scratching the surface in my Elliot Wave education, this service has really helped me position my clients in the right way."
"YogiZeke" - Trading Room

Love this community! If you have a mindset to learn, this place is a gold mine.
""FletchFFletch" - Trading Room" -

"Thanks Avi and all honored analysts, as a retail trader, EWT really changed my life."
"Ultima" - Trading Room