Bayes might not be perfect, but this trading system I’ve built sticks to its guns. This what I wrote premarket on 1/24 regarding the SPY:
“Last week I posted the next BP support cluster was at 434-438…premarket this is exactly where SPY finds itself. If this region doesn’t hold, then the next cluster comes in at 424-428.”
Once 434 was lost, Bayes patiently waited until the bottom of the next BP cluster was struck and at exactly 424 instructed members to go long. It ended up being one heck of a start to this swing.
Again, we are trading BPs (that’s Bayesian probabilities for newer members), and BPs are telling me to look higher into 2/2ish and then we’ll see.
In metals if there was ever a bullish setup in GDX, then this is it with the BP-price action bullish divergence at extremes. No changes: BPs are increasing for a rocket launch type of move into next week (i.e. a bullish BP-price action divergence is building to the extremes): With the intermediate timeframe BPs tightening back up in the bulls favor, this has the potential to swing hard in our favor with targets (as soon as next week) of 35+.