BTS Joins The Party

After going long, then short, then long in our Trading Notes (booking profits along the way)…guess who decided to join the party?  The BTS!  

At the lows of the day, our BTS Alerts went into buy mode in IWM, QQQ, and SPY on 8/3.  The rate-of-change (ROC) in BPs led this charge – does this mean it’s a stairway to bull heaven?  Absolutely not.  We simply trade the odds when they support our positioning – and even though the BTS targets longer swing holds than our Notes trades, if the odds move against us, then we will bail just as quickly as we got in.  

As for metals, in the Morning Notes commentary on 8/3 I stated:  “Metals have that countdown clock to them; and if this BP path I’m seeing plays out, then a trending move should begin with 24-48 hours”…well, well, well, at the micro-level pre-market this morning we are gettin’ that action.  Hope you got what you wanted.  

Although it’s not "all clear," it’s a good start and begins to confirm that bullish BP-price action I’ve been yapping about over the last two weeks for this swing trade higher.

BP paths at the swing trade level can be summarized best by: (1) [BP=74%] GDX holds 33-34 and pushes higher to at least 38ish on this swing, vs (2) [BP=26%] GDX breaks more directly.

Aug4MikeBayesDXY
Aug4MikeBayesDXY
Aug4AviBayesGDX
Aug4AviBayesGDX
Aug4AviBayesSPX
Aug4AviBayesSPX
Aug4AviBayesUSO
Aug4AviBayesUSO
Luke Miller, who has developed a Bayesian timing system for trading the stock market, hosts two Bayesian timing premium services at ElliottWaveTrader.