Upside Appears Limited
Even with bullish action of late, the odds of a continued bullish leg like Avi’s alt red count remain very low. The under the hood distribution continues to gain steam and the faster the retailers buy, the faster the distribution continues from deeper pockets – eventually, there will be an imbalance and retailers will scramble to sell stocks at lower price to ... other retailers.
In any event, the real question is where will deep pockets want to rebuy a pullback? Above 2020 lows or below them – this answer will most likely vary by sector. The odds continue to support the bears having their day/week/months, and upside appears limited from here -– possibly $10 risk up in SPY vs. $50+ downside.
For now I look to the signal, and if it switches to neutral then I’ll follow and fight another day as a bear.
Closing above the 323s probably sees the 330s. so for those looking for a swing trade “short uncle cry” it’s near there. At the most micro of levels, another run at the 323s has a 62% of occurring before a rollover begins in earnest; otherwise, a top of some sort was seen on 6/8.
Updated longer-term long positions comment: With the Bayesian Probabilities continuing to bearishly trend, it does appear to be setting up a potential multi-month (and possibly even a multi-year) high at the longer-term perspective. Unfortunately, I lean more neutral to bearish today than I did a month ago. In fact, if SPX were to break 2500, the odds of the 2020 lows holding would become slim. There does exist a bullish path out of here, but probably not as bullish as some might expect (and I will expand on that bullish potential if/when it’s appropriate).