Recent Articles by Jason Appel

What Is "No Man's Land" From An Elliott Wave Perspective?

Often times you'll see a support zone on a chart marked with a blue box or the analyst will explicitly write something like "$27.80-$28.66 remains larger support for upside continuation." Additionally you may see a comment like "Alternatively, should price continue down a make a sustained break below $27.09 it would open the door to a wider flat in progress off the May high, which could target a retest of the August low." So, what happens in the space between the lower end of support in this scenario ($27.80) and the signal level for a breakdown ($27.
by Jason Appel - 6 months ago

Fibonacci Pinball At A Very Large Degree

I suspect a major top is near.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

BTC Once Again Snubs Buyers Looking for Anything Resembling a Standard Pullback

Within all counts price is coming up into a target region of great significance from which a pullback is expected.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Where’s Bitcoin Going In 2024?

In a word, higher. Our tentative expectations for 2024 are quite bullish.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Dow Dips To Support Region

The DJI has had a very nice move up from the support noted earlier this week.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Shorting MBT At Resistance

BTCUSD: Bitcoin has 5 waves down from last week's high strongly favoring a top in place for b of (ii) and c down in progress. At the micro level it appears that a low has developed for wave 1 of c and now price is bouncing correctively in wave 2 of c with Fibonacci resistance between $29.5k-$29.8k. Assuming price is unable to make a break over resistance, expectations are for a drop down to the $27.2k-$28k region to complete the c wave down.With a decent 5 down and it being early in the week, I'll likely attempt a short trade in MBT on a bounce up to noted resistance.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

The Actionable Takeaway Of Doing Nothing

Markets are consolidating, expanding, and retracing all the time -- does that mean that everyone of those patterns warrants an overt action from us as traders and investors?
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Anticipating The Upmove In CCJ

Here's the chart on CCJ from March 15th when we added it as a Wave Setup at 24.26 in our Metals, Mining & Agriculture service, and where it is today.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Where's Bitcoin Going In The Second Half Of 2023?

After a litany of bearish developments in the crypto space last year -- the Terra Luna crash, the Celsius crash, and the FTX collapse -- the first half of 2023 concluded with similarly anti-crypto sentiments as the SEC announced the filing of charges against Coinbase for “operating as an Unregistered Securities Exchange, Broker, and Clearing Agency” https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-102.  Additionally, the SEC also announced the filing of charges against Binance for “operating unregistered exchanges, broker-dealers, and clearing agencies; misrepresenting trading controls and oversight on the Binance.US platform; and the unregistered offer and sale of securities.” https://www.sec.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Opportunities We Are Seeing In Crypto: Binance Coin and Polygon

Opportunities We are seeing in CryptoProduced by Jason Appel, with Avi Gilburt and Ryan WildayFrom June of 2022, we published a trio of articles (3 Alts With Setups For Higher Highs In the Next Bull Cycle in Crypto) providing detailed thoughts on BNB (Binance Coin), MATIC (Polygon), and AAVE. This article will review the calls from the past year and provide detailed thoughts on prospective bullish paths for BNB and MATIC. In the case of AAVE, while the setup discussed in its August 2022 update (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528644-3-alts-with-setups-for-higher-highs-in-the-next-bull-cycle-in-crypto-part-3-aave) has not invalidated, its progress since then does not inspire confidence for the bullish prospect that was presented and a lower low down to the $22-$25 region cannot be ruled out.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Chart on ZO (As Breakout Began)

ZO: And now it's started...that's some nice timing on the breakouthttps://www.elliottwavetrader.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Chart on ZO (Minutes Before Breakout)

Oats are on the cusp of breakout here
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Chart on ZO (Oat Futures)

ZO: Oats look like a possible 1-2, i-ii.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Technical Update On Ethereum - The Next 20%+ Drop Should Tell The Story For The Coming Year

A technical update on ETH for February 2023The next 20%+ drop should tell the story for the coming year in Ethereum“2022 has been a challenging year for crypto investors. The past several months have had all the hallmarks of a bear market given all of the incredibly negative developments throughout the crypto space with several major bankruptcies in exchanges going down. Most recently, and perhaps the largest (to date) was the demise of FTX.” from Jason Appel’s November Article, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559154-november-technical-update-on-ethereumConsidering ETH lost 67.50% in 2022, “challenging” is perhaps a mild characterization for the 2nd largest Crypto Currency. But with a new year has come new sentiment and a marked change in price action.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

November Technical Update On Ethereum

A technical update on ETH2022 has been a challenging year for crypto investors. The past several months have had all the hallmarks of a bear market given all of the incredibly negative developments throughout the crypto space with several major bankruptcies in exchanges going down. Most recently, and perhaps the largest (to date) was the demise of FTX. And while our larger more immediate bullish thesis in BTC has certainly reduced in confidence due to the prolonged break below $24k, ETH has more closely maintained adherence to larger degree expectations laid out this spring. Let’s review:From April 25th article: https://seekingalpha.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

Silvergate: A Crypto Stock Trade That Is Outperforming

Silvergate: A crypto stock trade that is outperforming This article will delve into a high quality technical setup that is developing in SI, Silvergate Capital Corp.Silvergate Capital provides solutions for lending, payments, and funding to a growing array of companies in the digital currency space. They also offer financial services such as commercial banking and commercial business lending.So, while Silvergate has risen and fallen in sympathy with the crypto market as it is deep in the digital currency service space, its destiny is not entirely tied to movements in Bitcoin.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

Technical Update on CEQP, PTY, DFP, DMB, RQI, and UTG

This series of articles is intended to provide Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Pinball Analysis as an accompaniment to Rida Morwa’s High Dividend Investing (HDI) Service.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

Market Analysis for May 26th, 2022

Our NG charts have been quite prescient at nailing the turns, and price has reached the target established back in December.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

Soybeans & Soybean Oil Setups

ZS / ZL: Folks, reminder, I will be out tomorrow. Here are the parameters on the Soybeans and Soybean oil setups.Tight stops (indicated with the orange lines) can go below today's low in ZL and yesterday's low in ZS. Wider stops can be set below this week's low on each.ZL: Black interpretation which is primary portends that today's low holds and price breaks out in wave iii of (c) on ZL targeting the 74.50 region and 75.50 for all of (c). Below today's low and price must restart wave iii which is valid so long as 71.50 is not broken (purple count)ZS: Black count portends (i)-(ii), i-ii with micro support from 1629 -1639 for immediate upside setup.
by Jason Appel - 3 years ago

Standard Fibonacci Pinball Setup in SPX

With this rubric we have a lens through which to perceive price movements and to extrapolate actionable information.
by Jason Appel - 3 years ago

Riding the Stockwaves: Technical Update on VALE

Riding the Stockwaves: Technical Update on VALE S.AVale S.A. is off to a superb start in 2022. Year to date, shares are up 42% as of the March 25th close. This is amidst a pretty broad risk-off environment in stocks in the first quarter of this year. The steel industry rebounded strongly last year compared to the start of the pandemic. Additionally, with expansions in infrastructure investment, producers of basic materials in particular iron ore are set to benefit. Given their extensive logistical network, VALE has some cost advantages in bringing products to market.Lastly, considering the current inflationary regime, particularly in commodities and basic materials, producers have good conditions for a very successful year ahead.
by Jason Appel - 3 years ago

Chart on NG (4-Hour)

NG: Bigger degree maintains the bullish posture. Price appears to have completed its wave (ii) flat and now headed up in (iii). All of c of A targets 6.
by Jason Appel - 3 years ago

Bitcoin: Another Detour On The Moonpath

Bitcoin: Detour on the Moonpath (part II)Since September of last year, the technical updates on Bitcoin we have provided have focused on various iterations in the expected “path to $100k+.” Before providing any further commentary, I must note that I maintain my forecast for new all-time highs and price to surge to north of $100k. A more protracted crypto bear market is a possibility, but the technical structure indicates price being much closer to a significant bottom than a lasting top. There’s been no compelling evidence in the action since either of the April or November 2021 highs to indicate Bitcoin is in something worse than a bull market consolidation.
by Jason Appel - 3 years ago

Riding the Stockwaves: Technical Update on ROKU

“From a fundamental standpoint, Roku’s valuation has been completely reset. It is now below average in terms of its average valuation, and continues to have robust growth” -Lyn Alden from her 2/12 article, “Where Fundamentals Meet Technicals: ROKU, MELI” To be sure, ROKU’s valuation reset was not a garden variety bull market pullback. Instead, ROKU fell 79% from it’s all-time high in July 2021 to the recent low of $102.60 struck on February 18th. The company’s price to sales ratio fell from a meteoric 33+ down to 5.5. What changed?Note, revenue has continued to grow amidst this plummet in the stock price. Q4 2021 revenue did miss analyst expectations by 3.2%.
by Jason Appel - 3 years ago

BTC: What's happening - Market Analysis for Dec 5th, 2021

reposting w/ charts:BTCUSD: What's going on at the larger degree? Has anything changed?The primary black count that I've been tracking is still quite reasonable as a primary perspective. Note, this scenario for price to drop below $50k was identified as a potential several weeks ago, initially as the alt blue count. Admittedly price has dipped much deeper than anticipated on this (b) wave (as per the black count pullback)In order for this to be a valid (b) of circle iii. Price must remain above the wave circle iii low as per this interpretation. While the exact level varies from one trading venue to another, it's generally $39.6k. Below that level the black count is completely invalid.
by Jason Appel - 3 years ago

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