Recent Articles by Jason Appel

Bitcoin: The Fakeout Thesis Is On Thin Ice

The past week's price action has weakened the more immediately bearish case (black and purple counts), while concurrently strengthening the immediate bullish case (green count).
by Jason Appel - 1 week ago

Bitcoin: Blastoff or Fakeout?

Before I answer that question, it's important to note that ultimately, I don't see it as likely that Bitcoin has topped in the rally from the 2022 low.
by Jason Appel - 2 weeks ago

Approaching Levels For the Last Big Swing Long of the Cycle From 2022

Over this past week, Bitcoin has declined in a manner that's provided initial followthrough on the downside structure shown in last week's article. The key aspect here is that price has now breached the 6/5 low which invalidates the immediate upside that was shown in green.
by Jason Appel - 3 weeks ago

Is This Pullback The Last Swing Long Setup In This Bullish Cycle From 2022?

As of writing this article, the immediate bullish case for a direct move to $125k without a retest of the June low is still valid albeit rather unhealthy.
by Jason Appel - 1 month ago

BTC: Is it time for Hodl'ers to get cautious?

Though price action has been somewhat muted in term of upside strength in recent weeks, Bitcoin did break the January high in this past month (May) achieving a top of nearly $112k. While this is shy of the $125k minimum target we've had since the outset of this move from the 2022 low, the current high is only 11.5% below, which is quite near in terms of Bitcoin's volatility.
by Jason Appel - 1 month ago

BTCUSD: Will Price Take the Long Path or the Short Path to Complete the Rally from the April Lows?

My longer term target in this bullish cycle that began at the 2022 low has been $125k-$140k and that has been the case for a few years now. Considering price is now within a relatively short distance from that region, especially in terms of Bitcoin's volatility, traders would be very wise to mind their risk particularly as price closes in on the target.
by Jason Appel - 1 month ago

BTC: New All-Time Highs Are On Deck

How high can this swing from the April low take price?
by Jason Appel - 2 months ago

What Is "No Man's Land" From An Elliott Wave Perspective?

Often times you'll see a support zone on a chart marked with a blue box or the analyst will explicitly write something like "$27.80-$28.66 remains larger support for upside continuation." Additionally you may see a comment like "Alternatively, should price continue down a make a sustained break below $27.09 it would open the door to a wider flat in progress off the May high, which could target a retest of the August low." So, what happens in the space between the lower end of support in this scenario ($27.80) and the signal level for a breakdown ($27.
by Jason Appel - 9 months ago

Fibonacci Pinball At A Very Large Degree

I suspect a major top is near.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

BTC Once Again Snubs Buyers Looking for Anything Resembling a Standard Pullback

Within all counts price is coming up into a target region of great significance from which a pullback is expected.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Where’s Bitcoin Going In 2024?

In a word, higher. Our tentative expectations for 2024 are quite bullish.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Dow Dips To Support Region

The DJI has had a very nice move up from the support noted earlier this week.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Shorting MBT At Resistance

BTCUSD: Bitcoin has 5 waves down from last week's high strongly favoring a top in place for b of (ii) and c down in progress. At the micro level it appears that a low has developed for wave 1 of c and now price is bouncing correctively in wave 2 of c with Fibonacci resistance between $29.5k-$29.8k. Assuming price is unable to make a break over resistance, expectations are for a drop down to the $27.2k-$28k region to complete the c wave down.With a decent 5 down and it being early in the week, I'll likely attempt a short trade in MBT on a bounce up to noted resistance.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

The Actionable Takeaway Of Doing Nothing

Markets are consolidating, expanding, and retracing all the time -- does that mean that everyone of those patterns warrants an overt action from us as traders and investors?
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Anticipating The Upmove In CCJ

Here's the chart on CCJ from March 15th when we added it as a Wave Setup at 24.26 in our Metals, Mining & Agriculture service, and where it is today.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Where's Bitcoin Going In The Second Half Of 2023?

After a litany of bearish developments in the crypto space last year -- the Terra Luna crash, the Celsius crash, and the FTX collapse -- the first half of 2023 concluded with similarly anti-crypto sentiments as the SEC announced the filing of charges against Coinbase for “operating as an Unregistered Securities Exchange, Broker, and Clearing Agency” https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-102.  Additionally, the SEC also announced the filing of charges against Binance for “operating unregistered exchanges, broker-dealers, and clearing agencies; misrepresenting trading controls and oversight on the Binance.US platform; and the unregistered offer and sale of securities.” https://www.sec.
by Jason Appel - 1 year ago

Opportunities We Are Seeing In Crypto: Binance Coin and Polygon

Opportunities We are seeing in CryptoProduced by Jason Appel, with Avi Gilburt and Ryan WildayFrom June of 2022, we published a trio of articles (3 Alts With Setups For Higher Highs In the Next Bull Cycle in Crypto) providing detailed thoughts on BNB (Binance Coin), MATIC (Polygon), and AAVE. This article will review the calls from the past year and provide detailed thoughts on prospective bullish paths for BNB and MATIC. In the case of AAVE, while the setup discussed in its August 2022 update (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4528644-3-alts-with-setups-for-higher-highs-in-the-next-bull-cycle-in-crypto-part-3-aave) has not invalidated, its progress since then does not inspire confidence for the bullish prospect that was presented and a lower low down to the $22-$25 region cannot be ruled out.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

Chart on ZO (As Breakout Began)

ZO: And now it's started...that's some nice timing on the breakouthttps://www.elliottwavetrader.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

Chart on ZO (Minutes Before Breakout)

Oats are on the cusp of breakout here
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

Chart on ZO (Oat Futures)

ZO: Oats look like a possible 1-2, i-ii.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

Technical Update On Ethereum - The Next 20%+ Drop Should Tell The Story For The Coming Year

A technical update on ETH for February 2023The next 20%+ drop should tell the story for the coming year in Ethereum“2022 has been a challenging year for crypto investors. The past several months have had all the hallmarks of a bear market given all of the incredibly negative developments throughout the crypto space with several major bankruptcies in exchanges going down. Most recently, and perhaps the largest (to date) was the demise of FTX.” from Jason Appel’s November Article, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559154-november-technical-update-on-ethereumConsidering ETH lost 67.50% in 2022, “challenging” is perhaps a mild characterization for the 2nd largest Crypto Currency. But with a new year has come new sentiment and a marked change in price action.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

November Technical Update On Ethereum

A technical update on ETH2022 has been a challenging year for crypto investors. The past several months have had all the hallmarks of a bear market given all of the incredibly negative developments throughout the crypto space with several major bankruptcies in exchanges going down. Most recently, and perhaps the largest (to date) was the demise of FTX. And while our larger more immediate bullish thesis in BTC has certainly reduced in confidence due to the prolonged break below $24k, ETH has more closely maintained adherence to larger degree expectations laid out this spring. Let’s review:From April 25th article: https://seekingalpha.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

Silvergate: A Crypto Stock Trade That Is Outperforming

Silvergate: A crypto stock trade that is outperforming This article will delve into a high quality technical setup that is developing in SI, Silvergate Capital Corp.Silvergate Capital provides solutions for lending, payments, and funding to a growing array of companies in the digital currency space. They also offer financial services such as commercial banking and commercial business lending.So, while Silvergate has risen and fallen in sympathy with the crypto market as it is deep in the digital currency service space, its destiny is not entirely tied to movements in Bitcoin.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

Technical Update on CEQP, PTY, DFP, DMB, RQI, and UTG

This series of articles is intended to provide Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Pinball Analysis as an accompaniment to Rida Morwa’s High Dividend Investing (HDI) Service.
by Jason Appel - 2 years ago

Market Analysis for May 26th, 2022

Our NG charts have been quite prescient at nailing the turns, and price has reached the target established back in December.
by Jason Appel - 3 years ago

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