Recent Articles by Jason Appel

Bitcoin: Breakdown! - Market Analysis for Feb 1st, 2026

My forecast from here is to see some form of larger bounce develop from the $65k-$70k region. Even in the black count, a bounce back up to $100-$110k is reasonable. However, until we see some resistance break, any form of leveraged long is very risky and at a minimum, quite premature. For those looking to add more unleveraged exposure at cheaper levels, the $67k region represents a decent opportunity.
by Jason Appel - 3 days ago

Bitcoin: Rally Rejected!

The larger and more significant debate -- between whether the cycle from the 2022 low has completed vs another swing high targeting $200k+ -- remains intact and fully unresolved as price chops around the $85k-$95k region. Though a completed cycle is slightly favored, the door for higher remains open until the bears can resoundingly break the $65k-$67k area around the pre-2024 election lows.
by Jason Appel - 1 week ago

Bitcoin: Finally Outside of the Consolidation Range!

For nearly two months following the November low, price remained stuck in consolidation between the November 21st spike low down to $80k and the initial corrective bounce high at $94k struck on 12/3. However, in this past week, price has finally gotten a sustained break above the upper bound of the region though I can hardly call the action resoundingly bullish.
by Jason Appel - 2 weeks ago

Bitcoin: Rangebound Action Continues

December was a rather lackluster month for both bulls and bears alike as price remains stuck between the $80.6k November low and the $94.6k December high.
by Jason Appel - 4 weeks ago

Bitcoin: Stuck in the middle Pt.2

Price has developed a trading range from the November low into last week's high, roughly $80k-$95k. This range is filling in a corrective bounce within the larger expectation of seeing price retest the April low (74.4k~) so long as lower resistance $92k-$101k is respected.
by Jason Appel - 1 month ago

Bitcoin: Stuck in the middle

Bitcoin: Stuck in the middlePrice has developed a trading range from the November low into last week's high, roughly $80k-$95k. This range is filling in a corrective bounce within the larger expectation of seeing price retest the April low (74.4k~) so long as lower resistance $92k-$101k is respected. Assuming price follows through on the medium timeframe forecast, ie, to respect resistance and maintain below $101k and then head down to $67k-$74k region, our subsequent bounce can provide clues as to whether 2026 will setup bullishly, in the case of the blue count or bearishly, in the case of the black count.
by Jason Appel - 1 month ago

Bitcoin: Where On The Map?

Considering we are at almost the exact same price as last week's update it's safe to say that price has not "traveled" very far along the roadmap. As such, I'm going to keep this week's article quite brief to describe how the past week's micro action fits into the roadmap.
by Jason Appel - 1 month ago

Bitcoin: Refining our Roadmap for 2026

This decline is just too deep and too protracted to nicely align with a "base" for a direct rally to $200k+, though it remains a valid perspective.
by Jason Appel - 2 months ago

Bitcoin: How Much More Will Price Correct From The Highs?

Since last week's article Bitcoin's price declined strongly in impulsive fashion and as of this weekend's low in the $93.1k region it's quite clear that the primary expectations for a move down to $95k (or below) have been satisfied.
by Jason Appel - 2 months ago

Bitcoin: Back Under $100k? Check! But If You Blinked You May Have Missed It

In last week's 11/3 article I posited expectations for Bitcoin to decline under $100k. At the time, price was trading at roughly $108k, so it was hardly an outlandish call but the nearer term forecast laid out in the analysis was fulfilled in the past week with price following through to the downside and reaching a low on Tuesday in the $98.9k region.
by Jason Appel - 2 months ago

Bitcoin: Heading Back Below $100k?

Since last week's article, price topped in the noted resistance region and declined back into the middle of the trading range that's developed since the 10/17 low. Sans context, this action appears without any favor, whether up or down, to a particular resolution. However, in context, price's movement reasonably aligns with expectations laid out for downside to develop to take price back under $100k.
by Jason Appel - 3 months ago

Bitcoin: No Route Yet Selected

Price is stuck in a range that's developed since early July.
by Jason Appel - 3 months ago

Bitcoin: All Routes Are Still Open

In last week's update, four paths were shown for the near to medium term price action in Bitcoin. In this week's update we'll comment as to how price is "behaving" in terms of the four respective roadmaps.
by Jason Appel - 3 months ago

Bitcoin: 5 Weeks of Rallying Quickly Nixed and Establishing a Roadmap for the Next Several Weeks

Last week's article discussed Bitcoin's ambiguous stance due to price taking what was described as the lower probability path to new all-time highs vs a more direct trip to test below $100k. Additionally, the new all-time highs were not clearly rejected (initially) nor did Bitcoin resoundingly maintain the new highs.While we have gotten clarity that the current all-time high was not part of a new motive subwave, the manner in which Friday's flash-crash developed has left price once again in a relatively ambiguous posture.
by Jason Appel - 3 months ago

Bitcoin: Bull-Market Target Officially Reached Without Qualification and a Surprise to the Upside

While the lower timeframe action has certainly shifted, my larger degree interpretations remain relatively unchanged.
by Jason Appel - 3 months ago

Bitcoin: Setting Up For a Decline to Retest Support Below $100k

Over the month of September we've tracked a bounce from the upper support, with price having bottomed around $107.3k and the subsequent action has followed the expectations very nicely. The primary interpretation since price broke the highest support in late August was for an (a)-(b)-(c) decline into the $85k-$102k zone that's been outlined as the major support for prospective continuation of this bull market from the 2022 low.
by Jason Appel - 4 months ago

Bitcoin: Corrective Bounce or Something More, Pt2.

Last week's title, Bitcoin: Corrective Bounce or Something More? may have been a bit premature as this is the very same question we have this week.
by Jason Appel - 4 months ago

Bitcoin: The Waiting Continues

In last week's article, "Waiting" we discussed how BTC has formed a top of some significance but we have not yet determined whether this bull market cycle from the 2022 low has completed or whether price is taking a breather before another 100+% rally.
by Jason Appel - 4 months ago

Bitcoin: Waiting - Market Analysis for Aug 31st, 2025

What's worthy of novel discussion this week is the shorter timeframe action and how we have a change in character within the market.
by Jason Appel - 5 months ago

BTC: Top in Place, But Top of What?

In last week's article the title, "The Top?" pondered just that: whether Bitcoin had topped just shy of $124.3k.
by Jason Appel - 5 months ago

Layering Into A Position

There have been some questions of late about an EW-based approach to layering into a position so I thought I'd draft something more comprehensive.
by Jason Appel - 5 months ago

BTC: The Top?

In the past several weeks, I've endeavored to strike a balance between conveying lower timeframe bullishness amidst higher timeframe caution. In a simple way, the viewpoint has been that so long as price has respected the supports that have been provided here, the expectation would be for a sufficient number of waves to fill in to the upside and for price to reach $125k+. This past week has satisfied one of those conditions while averting the other.
by Jason Appel - 5 months ago

BTC: Do Sellers Have What It Takes?

Unless price breaks below $111.9k and gets follow-through to sustain below $110k, the overall expectation for a new all-time high remains the same.
by Jason Appel - 6 months ago

BTC: Nap Time Is Almost Over

At this point price is going on nearly 2 weeks of consolidation below the new all-time high struck on 7/14 but more importantly this consolidation is taking place above $110k.
by Jason Appel - 6 months ago

Bitcoin: Hovering in the Stratosphere

In last week's article we noted the forecasted potential "blastoff" from the previous articles had come about with Bitcoin's direct breakout to new all-time highs exceeding $123k. Considering price has now reached within 2% of the target from this move from the 2022 low, on the higher timeframe we can consider the target functionally achieved.
by Jason Appel - 6 months ago

  Matched
x