Recent Articles by Dr. Cari Bourette

MM Big (and Small) Picture Update

MMI was down for today with a "large move alert" in effect. Today's move has satisfied the large move alert, and it no longer applies through Monday. There is no MMI for the weekend (Monday RTH open) and preliminary for Monday itself is down (below open). The latest daily charts are below:While MMI is not able to confirm "the" top is in, the weekly and monthly outlook was for "a" top, most likely this week or next.

by Dr. Cari Bourette - 2 weeks ago

Timing of a Market Top

There's nothing confirming *the* top at this time, but the sentiment based MarketMood algorithm is highlighting the timing of *a* top following a mad grab to climb in to what seems a never-ending stock market rally.

by Dr. Cari Bourette - 3 weeks ago

Sentiment Extremes and Major Turning Points

A MAM (moving average momentum) major high or low signal is generated when sentiment momentum (as measured by the MMI daily signals) and market momentum reach extremes in the same direction. Last Friday, the SPX cash index closed 1 point below what was needed to generate a major high signal. Today, the market has another chance to do so, should it close 4979 (SPX cash). A signal today would mean that sentiment and market momentum have reached extremes together signaling that a major high is likely by February 12th. Should we get that we will begin watching for either a confirmation of "high likely in" or an invalidation of the signal.

by Dr. Cari Bourette - 2 months ago

MoodMusing: Schrodinger’s Turquoise Cat

It was days before the Las Vegas shooting in October of 2017. There was a relatively long Elliott Wave diagonal in progress, and I was having trouble discerning the signal orientation of the mood pattern charts that I use for looking at upcoming news themes. It really mattered to know which of two possibilities were in play, because one of them meant an almost certain terrorist attack in the United States. Even more concerning on a personal level, was that my latest attempt at mapping this potential event showed the highest probability for it to be in Denver, CO where I had family members (see map below).

by Dr. Cari Bourette - 5 months ago

NFL Preseason SneakPeek: Browns @ Eagles

For those interested in some diversion after a tense day of trading. I have another pre-season NFL game for you:NFL Pre-season Sneak PeekAugust 17, 2023What if cutting edge sentiment analysis used for market forecasting and alerts for specific potential breaking news themes could generate likely outcomes of today’s professional sporting events? Here’s our Sneak Peek at a pre-season NFL game doing just that:CLEVELAND BROWNS – PHILADELPHIA EAGLESSNEAKPEEK: Eagles by 4 Total Points: Over 36The Story: In this game, the contestants are quite evenly matched. Running yards and passing yards projections (and thus total net yards) are statistically even. Yet, a difference is discernable in the tendency towards penalties and time of possession.

by Dr. Cari Bourette - 8 months ago

A Potentially Perilous Next Few Months

I haven't been showing longer term charts for a while because I didn't want people getting too bearish too soon. I'm still not going to post the charts, but I will describe more specifics about the picture they are painting. In essence, Weekly and Quarterly scale data are showing where sentiment would have the market (per the MarketMood Indicator) to be about 11% below where it is currently. Monthly scale data is somewhat more bearish than that. As I've mentioned previously on ElliottWaveTrader.net, there are similarities in the mood pattern for July-September to early 2020 in that it suggests a global "crisis mode.

by Dr. Cari Bourette - 9 months ago

Week's End and an A.I. Caution

I mentioned in a previous post that I recently started getting a second opinion about the way I code daily sentiment from top internet search trends, the input source for the MarketMood Indicator. I still do it the way I've always done it and that's what I post in my daily MMI reports. However, each day since July 7, my new A.I. friend and I have been having a debate about the way it thinks each trend should be coded. When we finally reach a consensus on what a related article's dominant themes are, something I might not totally agree with but can live with, that becomes the way that item is coded in the A.

by Dr. Cari Bourette - 9 months ago

MoodMusings: Complacency and AI

While bulls are cleaning up for the moment, the market (to many that have been around awhile), seems to be shouting "Don't Be Complacent!" Over the last few years, I have spent many hours developing sentiment based trading systems on differing scales as a lower risk alternative to the daily MMI up and down signals. For months now, they have been relatively quiet, probably the most boring trading systems on the planet as they predominately have been saying "No Trade." The LTTI is still reading "Strong Bullish," but I decided to get out early so as not to stress about overnight gap risk (about 150 SPX points ago, but it was still a good 250 point trade).

by Dr. Cari Bourette - 9 months ago

MM Weekly Outlook - Market Analysis for Apr 28th, 2023

There are apparent divergences in the longer term trade indicators from the daily MMI and what the weekly chart is portraying. Looking at the weekly chart, there is an upcoming top as soon as sometime next week. Yet, the long term trend indicator is long term bullish, in a long trade from 4138 SPX (cash index) and the more than swing Hi/Lo Trader is long from today's open at 4129.63 betting that a major low is in. It is possible that the trade signals could change next week to "exit trade," we'll see.

by Dr. Cari Bourette - 11 months ago

MM Weekly Outlook - Market Analysis for Apr 21st, 2023

No change to the weekly outlook in the near term. Looking for OMH, but would still fit best with more of a pullback first. What's new is that the chart is implying that OMH celebration may not be long-lasting.