Outlook: A Big Shift by Monday

End of this week into early next week, we have been on alert for a mood shift to a more somber tone possibly following a period of “denial.”  There have been a number of mass shootings this week without a sufficient shift in serious mood to account for the weekly pattern and at the same time the market has continued to rise (a common occurrence in the face of the denial component).

Geographical analysis for next week does not clearly point to a specific event to watch for, but a wide region in the central-southern U.S. that may have more focus than elsewhere (see map below).   While the map is also implying an elevated risk for an earthquake in Cuba, this is likely just an artifact of the software and would need to show up again in a daily scale map to be worthy of further attention.  

The most fascinating thing about this map, is that it was generated from "unrelated" internet search trend data from several weeks ago, and produced last weekend, before any of the current media coverage of the Tyre Nichols fatal traffic stop case was in the news.  Tennessee is right in the center of this focal region.  While the bodycam footage of the Nichols beating is set to be released this evening, it’s unclear what the aftermath of that will be.  It’s also of interest that this is a MoodMap of next week, not this week.  Hmmmm….

I have been watching the daily data for signs of the “serious event watch” that is showing in the weekly data as that would be a clue as to when it might “land.”  This would show as a rise in the daily “Controlled” mood quality which tends to correspond with a somber tone and sudden change, especially when “Manic” is lowest.   As you can see in the daily mood chart below, there is a “crisis mode” highlighted through the weekend, followed by a “serious event watch.”  It’s possible this whole thing could reflect the aftermath of this evening’s video release or could be pointing to more than one event.  

While none of this is directly market related, the calculated market movement with this mood pattern is down both for the weekend and Monday.  There is still one hour left for a potential revision to Monday’s data, but I wanted to get this out before end of day.

Be well and have a safe weekend.