The China Story - Market Analysis for Nov 27th, 2022

For a number of years, we’ve been tracking oscillating social mood qualities on a daily basis for the United States.  Because the themes in topics people are collectively focused on (per top internet search trends), precedes general themes in the news, this has allowed us to spot significant upcoming shifts in the news cycle and at times has alerted us to certain types of events to anticipate.  Recently, a similar project has begun watching Hong Kong and Taiwan to see what can be learned regarding the China Story…

The primary focus of our source data coming out of Hong Kong is a combination of the World Cup, sex scandals, and the loss of a famous international celebrity.  The top news stories coming out of mainland China over the last couple of days have to do with protests around Covid lockdowns.  While not specifically predictive of protests, the mood qualities do reflect an angry, willing to fight for a cause kind of mood for Saturday and Sunday, the 26^th and 27^th of November (SW/SE high combo).  This wanes a bit on the 28^th, possibly in response to a government pushback (oppositional rise in NW/NE combo).  The angry mood continues on the 29^th and preliminary data for the 30^th reflects a serious shift in tone.  If final data for the 30^th continues to tell a similar story, and to the extent that the Hong Kong patterns are reflective of Chinese news themes in general, this would probably be a good day to consider alternative, less provocative activities.

In Taiwan, besides the World Cup, the primary focus of late has been on elections that have just completed, and there is a marked shift in tone from an aggressive one in progress.  The pattern on the 29^th is focused on the government or legal matters (NW/NE high), with a sense of vulnerability or, in essence, the opposite of an aggressive mood showing in preliminary data for the 30^th.  

How this will specifically play out is yet to be seen.  In the meantime, we are seeking to understand more of what these patterns can tell us about the China Story.