Articles Related to GDX

Be On The Lookout

As I write this update, gold seems to be a relatively clear 3-wave pullback, and silver is questionable as to whether it is 3 or 5.  You see, what would count as a 5th wave in silver is really so large it can also be considered a c-wave, which would then count it as a corrective a-b-c pullback.  So, where does that leave us?Well, without a CLEAR 5-wave decline, it tells us that the probability that the larger c-wave decline is not highly likely.  And, we have to then seek other potential options.
by Avi Gilburt - 11 hours ago

What exactly is a "hedge" and do I need one?

Let's go through the following four questions and considerations.
by Zac Mannes - 5 days ago

Setting Up The Next Leg Down

As I outlined over the weekend, the silver chart was providing us with the clearest path as to how a b-wave can potentially complete.  And, I would say that this is still true.   So, let’s look at the smaller degree chart in silver as our guide.From the weekend update, we were looking for the market to minimally continue this rally towards the 93 region, which is the .500 retracement of the initial decline off the all-time high in silver.  Today, the market approached the 92 level and has seemingly backed off.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

I Can Only Give To You What I Can See

I am presenting you with three charts, all telling me somewhat different stories.  So, I am just going to get into the charts.Starting with gold, while I can fashion an argument to claim that this b-wave has completed, I cannot say that I would wholeheartedly believe it.  It would have made much more sense if the market had begun this decline from the February 11th high in impulsive fashion.  Then I would be able to more strongly consider that this b-wave has concluded and the c-wave has begun.  But, that is not what we have seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

What The Heck Is Up (or not up) With Silver?

While both gold and GDX have seen very nice corrective bounces thus far, with GDX approaching the .764 retracement of its initial decline and gold approaching the .618 retracement of the same, silver has only mustered a move to the .382 retracement region.   The question on my and everyone else’s mind is how do we read this?  If I were looking at gold and GDX in a vacuum, I would be shorting the crap out of those two charts.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Short and Sweet - Market Analysis for Feb 5th, 2026

There really is not much for me to add to my metals analysis at this time.  My view remains that we are mired in a b-wave within a larger a-b-c corrective structure off the recent highs.  And, I think it is reasonable to expect one more rally before this b-wave completes.Of course, should all 3 charts break below their recent lows, then I have to assume the c-wave is already in progress, especially since we have hit the minimum targets for this b-wave in both the GC and GDX charts, but we have fallen short in silver.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Extreme And Dangerously So

To call this move in gold now “extreme” is beyond an understatement.  Moreover, not only did we get the spike out of the channel in continuation of this parabola, but it has even accelerated further, which now places us in what I believe to be a dangerous environment.  These types of moves usually end with a VERY strong reversal and drop to the region from which this diagonal began.With regard to the wave structure in gold, I am seeing this as a very extended wave v of the c-wave of within the 5th wave of the ending diagonal, which you can see on the 60-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Late Cycle Action - Market Analysis for Jan 21st, 2026

As I have outlined many times before, the gold and mining stock market bottomed at the end of 2015, and we have since been involved in a 10+ year bull market in gold and GDX. While silver bottomed later, it has caught up rather well, as is typical of silver, and all the charts seem to be suggesting this is late cycle action.Of course, there still could be another 4-5 to still be seen, which is my alternative count in silver and gold, but my primary count in GDX.  But, we have to recognize that this is likely an auspicious time to be harvesting profits we have earned over the last 10 years.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Short Update - Market Analysis for Jan 15th, 2026

I am putting out a short update since I am absolutely exhausted from my travel to Israel today.In gold, we now have enough waves to consider this rally as having topped.  Yet, we have not seen the usual hallmark of an ending diagonal completion, wherein it spikes through the trend channel followed by a stronger reversal back into it to start its decline.  So, until we actually see a sustained break down below 4545, I still have to leave that door open.Silver has more than enough waves in place as well.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

The Messy Metals March Higher

While we caught a nice low a little over a week ago, the rally off that low was quite promising as a standard structure . . . until today.  But, as I was noting yesterday in my updates and in the trading room, something seemed “off” about the structure.  Now, the best I can get is an ending diagonal for wave 5.So, let’s look at the charts and see where we stand, as it is not simple, especially when we look at gold.In silver, the alternative we were tracking thus far was presented in yellow, and would provide a c-wave decline to complete a larger wave 4 structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Still Looking Up . . . BUT

With the market following through early in the week to the upside and not seemingly likely to break down in a major (c) wave decline YET, I just wanted to add one more potential path to the mix, as we like to try to stay at least one step ahead of the market.With the market invalidating the red alternative count as shown over the weekend in GDX, and almost invalidating it in silver, I have to put another alternative path before you.   That is represented by the yellow larger (a)(b)(c) shown in GDX and silver right now.  This is clearly not as bearish as the prior alternative count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Long Set Up Developing

With the market finally providing to us a sizeable pullback, we are now at the support region for both gold and silver.  So, let’s start with silver.As we can see on the 144-minute chart, price has come down to the top of the support box, and the MACD has now dropped down to the oversold region from which prior rallies have begun.   So, this is a general buying signal.   The only question is whether the low for this c-wave of wave 4 is in place yet.  But, with the decline yesterday really only counting best as a 3-wave drop, I cannot say with a high degree of confidence that it has completed.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Mixed Signals In Metals Suggests SOME Caution Going Forward

As I warned in the weekend update, silver was getting a bit overheated and was concerning me about a potential early blow off top.  So, the bigger caution issue I am seeing on my charts is now the silver chart.  If you remember back in the spring, as I was outlining the potential parabolic rally we were expecting, we based our views upon the 2010-2011 market fractal for its parabolic rally and blow off top. As the market began that rally, we were able to then assign a general target region for that rally, which we placed on the weekly SLV chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Silver Will Never Come Down Again

The way the silver rally has extended, it sure feels like it will never come down again, especially as many are now suggesting targets of $200 in the near term for silver.  But, needless to say, the wave structure is rather full – and then some – for this segment of the rally.  And, I still am expecting one more pullback before the final phase of this rally likely takes hold.  Yet, for now, after cashing in some of my shorter dated aggressive long positions, I am still holding my final aggressive longer-dated positions (all bought near the October lows, as announced in the trading room) and will simply add to them on the next pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Is This The Final Move?

For those that remember early this year, I was strongly urging that we prepare for what will likely be a parabolic run and catch up move in silver.  In fact, I attached the “conservative” chart path I laid out in the spring.  I even noted at the time that I would not be surprised if the final 5th wave higher would provide us with many $2+ days of rally.  And, that is what we are seeing of late.So, of course, this is begging the question “is this the final move higher?”I am still struggling with that answer, as I still think silver has a bigger pullback coming.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Silver’s Time To Shine

While silver is pushing into the minimum expected target region we set a while ago, I cannot say that this changes much in the analysis.  I am still uncertain as to which of the paths silver is going to take higher, as this is just a 5th wave in all the potential paths I have posted.   And, yes, I still expect a pullback.   But, as the analysis presented over the last week noted, I am still not sure how deep that pullback will be.   And, based upon the depth of the pullback, we will have a much better idea as to how high silver can travel in its larger 5th wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Going To Need More Information

Unfortunately, where the metals currently reside, we will need more information based upon the upcoming wave action over the coming weeks before we can make any determinations.   Moreover, the structures have turned quite complex, but I am going to attempt to simplify the analysis.  And, I hope I am successful.Let’s start with gold.   The structure of the rally off the end of October low is clearly a 3-wave structure.  And, as long as the resistance box on the 60-minute chart is respected, then we are well within a text-book a-b-c structure for the yellow (b) wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Metals Pushing The Limits Again

If you have experience with the manner in which the metals trade, then you know that they almost always push their limits. And, silver seems to be doing that as I write this update.There is no question that the rally that we have seen since silver struck the wave (4) support/target box has been overlapping and corrective looking.  This has been quite consistent with the expectation that it has been a corrective rally.  And, that is how I currently view it.  The question then is how to count it?First, silver is still retaining its 1-2 downside structure as long as we remain below the (b) wave high.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Pressure Remains Down - Market Analysis for Nov 19th, 2025

I have to keep this update short as I just got back to my hotel and have to run out for a dinner meeting. While I can count both gold and GDX as a potential i-ii down in the continuation of their respective (c) waves down, silver would really count best with one more rally to complete a deeper wave 2.  But, the main theme remains the same.  As long as the various charts remain corrective below their respective (b) wave highs, I am expecting a (c) wave decline, which will be signaled by a follow through break down below the lows of wave 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

We Are At Yet Another Metals Inflection Point

I am sending this update out earlier than usual as I believe we are approaching an inflection point now in the metals complex.Based upon the last few week’s price action, it was not easy to maintain an expectation of a bigger (b) wave rally.  However, we have now finally seen what I had wanted to see these last few weeks.  And, now that we have, we are approaching a test for our primary count.As you know, our primary count had the initial decline in the complex as an (a) wave, with this rally being a (b) wave, which was structured as an a-b-c move higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Note Of Caution - Market Analysis for Nov 6th, 2025

As I was reviewing the metals charts this morning, I wanted to send out a note of caution before I left for the day. While my preference has been for a higher (b) wave bounce across the metals complex, I have noticed that both GDX and GC can be considered as completing a (b) wave triangle this morning.  While I do not have the same potential in silver, it still is enough evidence of a potential completing a (b) wave that requires me to send out this note of caution.Should we see an impulsive break down in GDX below 68, in GC below 3935, and in silver below 47.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Overnight Low Important - Market Analysis for Nov 5th, 2025

As I am now traveling, I am gong to keep this week's metals update rather simple.  And, also, due to the rally we have seen since the overnight low was struck, it lends to the simplified analysis.I am still seeking a c-wave rally to complete a larger (b) wave in the respective 4th waves of the various charts. As long as the overnight low is held on the next pullback across the charts, then I can view that c-wave rally as having begun.  My preference is for a higher rally in silver relative to gold, and GDX may come somewhere in between.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Oct 30th, 2025

I want to reiterate in this update that my preference is still to see more of a "bounce" in the metals chart for a bigger and deeper (b) wave before we begin a (c) wave decline.  However, the market has been developing potential signals that could suggest we go down sooner than currently expected.  So, I wanted to send out a quick update.The most clear picture of a more immediate downside potential is in gold.  Earlier today, I sent out the following Alert in the main room:"I am being VERY cautious in gold right now due to the other potential paths.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

Getting A Bit More Complex

While the metals market provided us with another bounce, the structure of that bounce was not at all indicative of a standard c-wave rally, which would have completed a larger b-wave bounce.  You see, c-waves are most often 5-wave structures. And, thus far, all we have seen is another 3-wave bounce.  This leaves the door open for several paths.Let’s start with gold.   As you know, I am trying to track a (b) wave bounce, which would set up a (c) wave decline.  However, if we are going to see a (b) wave bounce taking us higher in the coming days, we are now at important support for a b-wave within that structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

Downside Being Seen, But, Weaker Than Expected

I was unable to write an update as I was at doctor appointments this morning.  So, I am going to outline what I am seeing so you can understand my conclusions.While we did see a “bounce” last week, that bounce only went to the .382 retracement of the prior decline.   While it is “possible” that this was all the (b) wave we are going to get, as shown by the alt (b) noted on the charts, this is clearly not my primary expectation.  In fact, I still think it is reasonable to expect more of a bounce.   Let me explain.To see a (b) wave that only retraces .
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago
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