Articles Related to GDX

Layering In As We Speak

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Point Of No Return

With the metals market seemingly topping out today, we may have now dropped to the point of no return.   You see, due to today’s drop, this is either going to be the start of the 5th wave to lower lows, or, yes, if we break back out over today’s high, then we will be looking at the revenge of the purple count.  It seems that simple to me at this time.I also want to remind you that a 5th wave decline in an ending diagonal takes shape as a 3-wave structure, breaking down as an a-b-c decline.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Small Changes - Market Analysis for Jun 15th, 2026

With the rally we are seeing today, I wanted to keep you apprised of where I think we are so that you can be appropriately prepared when the next buying opportunity arises.There are only two small changes I would make to the analysis from the weekend.  The first is in GDX. Due to the size of the move higher, I think it is clear that the recent low completed the 3rd wave of an ending diagonal in the c-wave for GDX.  With it hitting a low just beyond the 1.382 extension of waves 1-2 to the downside, this is a very reasonable bottom to the 3rd wave in a diagonal in metals.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Direct May Not Be So Direct

The main point of this update is simply to remind you that pressure will remain down in the more direct path to our lower directs UNLESS we see a VERY CLEAR 5-wave rally take hold at higher than a micro level.  But, even so, I am still expecting a sizeable bounce soon in a 4th wave of the c-wave lower.Yet, I want to note that silver still retains some potential for the purple count.  Last night, we struck a 1.00 extension (a=c) low and have bounced.  Since I am counting a direct move lower as an ending diagonal, we really should be targeting at least the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Break Of Support - Enjoy Your Jello

Clearly, we have broken the IMMEDIATE set up for the purple count.  And, that has opened the door to the more direct move lower.  So, I want to be clear about what I know and what I don't know.What I am relatively confident of is that the market is likely going to be heading to the lower lows we have been discussing for quite some time.  What I am not confident about is the path that is taking us there. Right now, this weakness suggests that we can be heading to the lower lows in a more direct fashion. Yet, I do not have a reliable wave structure that makes me confident in that perspective.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Failure Leads To Moar Jello

I wanted to send out a quick update this evening, as the rally today off the overnight low really counts best as a 3-wave rally.  And, 3-wave rallies are usually only corrective in nature.  This now causes a problem for the purple count as we needed a 5-wave rally off the recent low to provide us with the ideal (i)(ii) i-ii set up pointing us higher.Now, at the same time, I cannot say that I see a clear impulsive structure pointing us lower, as the decline from the recent high counts best as a corrective 3-wave structure as well.So, with 3-wave structures in both directions, it puts us back into jello.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Purple Is Facing Its First Test

I decided to write the metals report now as we seem to be sitting on a support region. As we said over the weekend, we were looking for a 2nd wave pullback in the purple count.  And, thus far, the market has provided us with that expected pullback.  But, I am again going to remind you that we are still likely within a larger degree corrective wave.   And, unless the purple provides us with a full (i)(ii) i-ii structure, followed by a break out over the high of waves (i)/i, we have to view this action with a bit of a jaundiced eye.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Defining Moment For Evil

The evil purple count is now at support in gold, and this is the last opportunity I am giving the market to either prove that evil count, or to let us know that we are going to be heading to the lower targets in a more direct fashion.IF you look at the 60-minute gold chart, you will see the 4400 region as the support I have outlined by the red support line.  Should the market see a sustained break of that support, then it becomes likely that we are heading down in wave 3 of the c-wave, pointing us down to the 3550-3850 region.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Escalator Up? - Market Analysis for May 21st, 2026

I am going to make this update short.  The last metals update told you to expect a bounce, and that is what we got.  While I am really questioning what that bounce was in GDX, silver can be 5 waves up, but gold has a “technical” 5 waves up.  The problem with gold’s 5 waves up is that it had a 3rd wave to the 1.618 extension and the 5th wave just shy of the 2.00 extension off the i-ii set up off the low.  That is NOT normal to see in a metals 5-wave structure, and they often well exceed those standard targets we see for equities.  Yet, I cannot deny that 5 waves up.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

It’s Not Easy Being Purple

No matter how many times I warn people about how evil a larger degree b-wave can get, I still see people getting caught over-trading during these environments.  And, it is usually because they have not been through many b-waves before and they believe that the death by a thousand cuts (that is typical of trading b-waves) simply will not apply to them.  And, while Kermit the frog is famous for proclaiming “it’s not easy being green,” I am sure Barney would proclaim similarly, “it aint easy being purple either.”  And, that certainly applies in our current situation, as the evil potential within this market still will not die.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Weekend Metals Report: Taking Everyone For A Ride

Last week, the market had a break-out set up to follow through within the purple count and a much more evil b-wave structure. However, the only chart that took the opportunity was silver, as it rallied and approached the target we had for that purple b-wave. Yet, it did come up a bit short.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2026

As it stands right now, we have a set up to take the metals much higher.  But, they do not seem to be set up in the same manner.I posted the charts below in silver trying to outline the micro count in this rally, although I cannot say that I have a high degree of confidence in the smaller degree count, it is the best option from those I am seeing.  And, as long as we remain over the wave ii low on the 5-minute chart, then I am looking higher to complete wave 3 of this purple c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Close, But No Cigar

With the crazy machinations we have been seeing of late in metals, I thought it appropriate to write an update a bit earlier than normal.With the market making a higher high yesterday, I could have made the argument that gold was providing us with a 1-2, i-ii upside set up.  However, the spike low today invalidated that potential.  So, it still leaves us with a potential for a 1-2, as shown in purple on the 13-minute GC chart.But, at the same time, there is also a reasonable count for 5 waves down in gold and silver.  I have outlined those counts on the attached 13-minute GC and 5-minute silver charts.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Potential 5 Down - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2026

With GDX and gold both completing 5 waves up off the recent lows, we have two paths that the market can choose.  And, as I noted earlier this morning in an alert, we can clearly reduce the paths in GDX from three down to the final two.So, to remind you, the question on the table is whether we drop to lower lows in a more direct fashion, or whether we have one more rally in the purple count before we begin that drop.  And, our answer is going to be determined regarding whether the market pulls back in a 5-wave structure or a corrective one.Today, the market completed a 5-wave rally in both GDX and gold.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Patiently Waiting For The Metals To Tip Their Hand

I want to again reiterate that the greatest probability path in the larger degree (at least in my humble opinion) is that the metals charts I am tracking should see a lower low before we can begin considering the correction is completed.  However, the charts are still not strongly indicative as to whether we will see a bigger rally before we begin that drop, or if we are going to begin that decline phase to lower lows more imminently.Let’s start with the GDX.   As you can see, we have bounced to the resistance region for wave ii of 3 to the downside.  And, as long as today’s high holds, then that is a very reasonable wave count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Another Spin On Evil

While GDX has been the cleanest of the paths over the last week or so, today’s action has placed more uncertainty around it.  While the bigger picture still strongly suggests lower levels will be seen before this correction is done, the fact that we have dropped this deep without an appropriate 2nd wave bounce if this is a c-wave decline adds a certain amount of complication to the chart which forces me to consider a different twist on the “evil” purple count.As you know, I have been expecting more of a bounce for a wave 2.  But, if the 3rd wave down in GDX has indeed begun, it would provide for a 2nd wave bounce that reached only a .
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Evil Is As Evil Does

First, I want to start this update by reiterating that I don’t think this correction is over.  Rather, I still think we see lower levels one way or another.  So, even though many are now looking at this as a new bullish leg in the metals, and have begun celebrating, with expectations of direct higher highs across the market, I am clearly not in that camp just yet.  The overlapping structures we are seeing across the complex strongly suggest that there is going to be further downside to be seen once this corrective bounce completes.Second, the “evil” purple count we have been tracking seems to have gotten even more convoluted.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Unfortunately, Not Much To Add In Metals Analysis

I waited until this evening to write the update, hoping that I would glean further information if we got some real movement.  But, alas, no such luck.With the amount of overlap in this rally off the recent lows in metals, there really is no high probability path to which I can point – other than ultimately lower.  While the potential for this being a 4th wave is still just barely on the table, the purple count has clearly been rising in probability.  And, in GDX, there really is no difference at this point between the two counts, other than the purple count should give us a clear 5-wave decline.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Something Evil Is Raising Its Ugly Head

With the metals charts pushing just past their resistance, it is certainly raising the probability of the evil purple count.  And, if you remember, this means that this rally will likely continue much further in the coming days and possibly weeks, only to set up a c-wave crash-like event to complete this larger a-b-c structure in the metals.The one that is starting to look more likely as this path is GDX.  As far as gold is concerned, unless we see a 5-wave decline begin rather immediately, I may have to switch to this alternative over the coming weekend or early next week.Yet, silver can still easily be a wave 4 rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Metals Are Moving In The Shadows

It has been interesting watching the metals move of late, as almost all the action has taken place during after-hours.  As an example, when gold struck its recent local bottom to what I am counting as wave 3, it happened in the overnight session.   Then, yesterday, it took the market the entire day to set up a 1-2, i-ii pattern, and as soon as the market closed, silver and gold broke out in their 3rd waves.I even noted it in a post I made at 1PM:“The way this continually hesitates at the highs seems to suggest it may attempt a break out overnight.   We will see.  As long as we hold over the overnight low, this is pointing higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Are Metals About To Whipsaw or Waterfall?

As I outlined over the weekend, gold was the clearest of the charts of late.  And, I also noted that should we see a sustained break of the 5000 region, then we are likely next heading to the 4800 region which will be a VERY important point for the market.To explain again, thus far, we have dropped down to the 1.00 extension (4800 region) off the 1-2 downside set up we have been tracking.  Normally, when the market bottoms at the 1.00 extension and begins an impulsive rally back up through the .618 extension (4983.50), it tells us that the market is not going to follow through on the downside set up, and that the decline was really a corrective a-b-c pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Same Bigger Picture View – But Mixed Micro Messages

While the bigger structure right now is pointing lower, the micro structure is still not wholly clear, and providing some very near term mixed messages.  Allow me to explain.Starting with GDX, we seem to be working on a 1-2 decline in the c-wave.  But, there is still a bit of a question in my mind as to whether the wave 2 is done, as we did not even reach the .382 retracement of the initial decline from the b-wave high.  That is an unusually shallow 2nd wave retrace.  So much so that a full 5-wave projection from the high this week points us to the 62 region in GDX, which is the 2.00 extension based upon the current 1-2 structure in place.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Downside Set Up - Market Analysis for Mar 4th, 2026

While I am showing a potential 1-2, i-ii in both gold and silver, I have to note there are a number of issues with it.  First, I cannot say that the wave i structure is the cleanest of 5-wave structures.  Second, normally, wave i of 3 will target AT LEAST the .382 extension of waves 1-2, whereas they normally target the .618 extension of waves 1-2.  And, what I have labeled as wave i of 3 has not even come close to the .382 extension.  So, needless to say, I really need a bit more evidence to make this immediate downside set up a much higher probability. The other issue I have is that I really have no clear similar downside set up in GDX.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Be On The Lookout

As I write this update, gold seems to be a relatively clear 3-wave pullback, and silver is questionable as to whether it is 3 or 5.  You see, what would count as a 5th wave in silver is really so large it can also be considered a c-wave, which would then count it as a corrective a-b-c pullback.  So, where does that leave us?Well, without a CLEAR 5-wave decline, it tells us that the probability that the larger c-wave decline is not highly likely.  And, we have to then seek other potential options.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

What exactly is a "hedge" and do I need one?

Let's go through the following four questions and considerations.
by Zac Mannes - 4 months ago
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