Articles Related to GDX

Looking For A “Bounce”

We have seen quite the selloff in the metals complex.  When the rubber band is stretched to an extreme in one direction, the snap back can be quite painful.  And, I tried to warn quite vehemently about a potential for such a reversal, but too many were busy cheerleading.While I was able to identify the blow-off top occurring in real-time last week in gold, we are now down to the initial support regions on our various charts.  In GC and GDX, we are now at the lower end of the upper support box. In silver, we almost struck the top of the major support box. And, thus far, all count best as 3-wave declines.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 hours ago

Is That All We Get?

Silver is currently attempting to complete a (c) wave down.  And, of course, the question is going to be if this is all we get?So far, we have come up a bit short of the .236 minimum target we set for this pullback.  Moreover, we clearly are well shy of the multi-week correction that the 2010-2011 fractal suggested we could see.  But, at the same time, the MACD has now moved down into the reset posture, which can now support a larger degree rally.Moving over to gold we also seem to be completing an a-b-c flat, which may be all of the alt iv.  Yet, GDX really is well short of even an *a)=(c).
by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

Not much changes in the bigger picture.  As Ecclesiastes noted, there is nothing new under the sun.   If you take the time to look back to the last time we struck a major top in the metals (2011), you will see the exact same analysts that were, at that time, claiming that we were only “getting started” with the metals rally, as they were falling over each other claiming higher targets than the next.  At the time, the only argument one would see amongst them was how far beyond the 2000 level gold would rally.Well, today, they are lining up in the same way.   Many are now calling for levels well exceeding 5000 in gold and 100 in silver.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Largest Single Day Decline Since Rally Began

Today gold has experienced the largest single day decline since this rally began.  The question of course is if this is the wave iv in blue or if we have finally begun a larger degree correction for wave (4)?As I am writing this update, the market is approaching the top of the support box for the alt iv.   That is the 3930 region.  We will have to watch this action very carefully in the coming days.  As long as all bounces are corrective, we can maintain a reasonable expectation for at least one more decline.  That means we can view this as an a-wave decline today, with the expectation of a b-wave corrective bounce.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Note On Bigger Picture

For years, we have been expecting silver and GDX to provide a catch up move.  And, now they are there.  In fact, all charts are now pointing to only one 4th and 5th wave left before this cycle is likely completed.Today, silver seems to be breaking out in the 5th smaller degree wave which will likely complete wave (3) in its long term cycle.  Gold is past that, but is now trying to complete its wave (3) in its final 5th, and GDX seems aligned with silver.  So, I still very much think it is reasonable to expect a larger degree 4th wave still to come across the board.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Switching Gears A Little – But, Does Not Change Bigger Picture

The one thing I am doing right now is I am taking off the b-wave potential on this rally, and simply calling it an extension in the 3rd wave in both GLD/GC and GDX.  But, in the bigger picture, that really does not change much, as it still has me expecting a larger degree 4th wave, with a 5th wave thereafter yet to come.In GDX, our initial support now is in the 68 region, and we will need to break below that support to suggest that a larger degree 4th wave is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Metals Update - Market Analysis for Oct 6th, 2025

Since I will not be here for the next two days, I wanted to post a quick update on metals.First, with silver hitting a higher high, I have adjusted the count as per the outline in the weekend analysis:"With the market pushing higher in silver, I have added the alternative that 4 is done.  Again, I do not see this as a high probability.  But, we have to at least know where we have to shift into this path.If the market only provides us a corrective pullback in the coming days, and then breaks back out over the high we strike in this move then that likely puts us in wave (3) of 5 of (3).
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Is It Finally Pullback Time?

Needless to say, we are overdue for pullback time.  And, the best evidence I have of that is in silver.With the market making it clear that it is completing wave 3 of (3), the micro count in that move still suggested we had a bit higher to reach before wave 3 was complete. At this time, I can say that almost all the squiggles are now in place to consider that count as complete.  But, as we know, the metals have ralied quite strongly, and we need some confirmatory evidence that we have indeed completed wave 3 and are in progress within wave 4.So, I have added two signal levels on the 8-minute silver chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Could Be The Start

Clearly, the metals complex has been stretched beyond our generally followed standards.  Yet, I still have no way to view a reasonable 4th wave as being in place in both GDX or gold.  So, for this reason, I am still very much expecting more of a 4th wave to be seen in the coming weeks and months.  But, in the meantime, we have to determine when that pullback has begun.  In GDX, I would still need to see a sustained break-down below the 66 region.  Thus far, I have no clear indications the decline has is taking shape as a 5-wave event, which would signal the start of the c-wave down.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Next Few Weeks Are Key In Metals

While there is potential that silver has seen a near term top, GDX may still have one more push higher, and gold is kinda in between these two potentials.Starting with silver, while the upside really does look incomplete at the last high, I have to recognize the potential that it may have topped in a wave (i) pursuant to the count I am tracking on the 144-minute chart.  But, we will still need a break down below the 41 level to make this a higher probability.  For now, I have added a proposed path for the coming weeks.  Clearly, I will adjust it as we get more information. But, as long as we remain below 44.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

My Path Forward In Metals

For those that have followed my work in metals through the years, you would know that we have caught just about every major turn in the charts for many years.  And, that is because we follow the structure of the market very closely, as well as apply the standards that have worked for us for the 14 years I have been publishing my metals analysis publicly.Of late, I have been struggling with this action in gold, as while I have been expecting a correction since April, I have been seeking a standard 4th wave formation.   Yet, thus far, that is not what we have seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Silver Break Out?

Silver has now taken out the resistance I noted over the weekend.  Of course, this now opens silver up to starting its run to back to its all time highs.  But it will clearly not be direct.  For now, I am still going to give the (b) wave just a bit more room.  But, if we take out this adjusted resistance box, then we are either in a big wave 1 of wave (3) or we are actually in wave 3 of (3).   Both counts are quite reasonable if we are already breaking out.  Therefore, the next buying opportunity I would look towards IF . . again, IF we are breaking out is wave 2 or wave 4.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Getting Back To Resistance

With this rally in the metals complex, all three charts are now approaching their resistance regions.   In GDX, not only are we striking the top of the long-term target box I placed on the daily chart last year, we are also approaching the smaller degree target box which is at the top of the larger target box.In support of this expectation, the NEM is also striking its 1.236 extension of waves 1-2 in this (c) wave, which is a typical target for a 3rd wave of an ending diagonal (up to as high as the 1.382 extension).  Therefore, I have now moved into my alternative count that I presented in yellow, and it is now my primary view.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

What A Mess!

That title really conveys my frustration with these wave structures.  There is nothing that I would call high probability in the smaller degree simply because of the extreme overlapping structures with which we are being presented in the silver and gold charts.  In gold, I am still viewing the purple and green counts as the most likely potentials.  But, they both would still seemingly need a bigger bounce before any further downside is seen.  But, if we see a move lower in a more direct fashion, I would begin to view the yellow count with a bit higher probability.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Gold Still In Corrective Mode

With gold following through to the downside in what seems like the (d) wave of a b-wave triangle (in purple), we are still well within the parameters of an ongoing wave [4].  In the micro structure, it does seem as though a higher of a bounce would be likely to complete the b-wave of that [d] wave, the main point is that as long as we remain below last week’s high, I am seeking a conclusion to this b-wave triangle as outlined on the 60-minute GC count.   Once that does complete, I will be looking for an initial 5-wave decline to make it likely that the c-wave down in wave (4) has begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

3rd Wave or B-wave? Both Have Same Outcome

With the GDX moving beyond my prior expectation, the question that is on everyone minds is what this means to the overall chart?   And, the basic answer is “not very much.”You see, either this rally is an expanded b-wave, or it is simply a continuation of the 3rd wave.  In both cases, we likely still see a sizeable decline before the 5th wave rally takes hold.  The main reason I am assuming that the 5th wave has not begun is because we have seen no consolidation that would be deep enough or large enough to be considered the wave 4.  Therefore, the most reasonable assumption is that this is either an expanded b-wave within wave 4, or wave 3 is simply extending.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

GDX Has A Lot Of Catching Up To Do

With silver leading to the downside of late, I am now tracking it as completed its wave v of (iii) of 3 in its c-wave down.  That would mean I am looking for a bounce in wave (iv) of 3 in the near term.  As you can see from the 8-minute chart, I have lowered resistance.  And, as long as the next bounce is corrective and respects resistance, I will be continuing to look lower in the coming days.  Another point I want to make about the silver action is that we can see in real time how the 5th waves are quite extended in the metals.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Metals Are Getting People Very Bullish Again

Whenever I have questions about a chart, I will usually go back to the larger degree.  And, the larger degree in both GDX and GLD tell me that I have NO reliable way to consider wave 4 as complete, which means I have no reliable reason to believe wave 5 has begun.   So, despite everyone being so certain that we are starting a new major move in the complex, I am still struggling with that potential.Furthermore, since we know that 5th waves in metals are usually going to be parabolic and strong moves, it is HIGHLY likely they will begin with a standard 5-wave structure for their first wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Downside Setup Still Developing In Metals

For those that have been following my analysis, you would know that I have been expecting a downside move to complete this correction in the metals before the next and likely final rally completes this long-term bullish cycle.In both gold and GDX, I have been tracking a 1-2 downside structure for their respective c-waves to complete a larger degree 4th wave.  However, this 2nd waves I have been tracking has become quite unreliable, as it now relies on more of a w-x-y pattern than a standard a-b-c for a wave 2.  While I can technically maintain an a-b-c for wave 2 in GDX, I cannot say it is highly reliable since the top of its potential wave 2 last week.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Metals Rally Added Complexity

As I warned in the weekend update, we needed to see a direct move lower in the complex early in the week to keep the count strongly in the c-wave down perspective.  Yet, when gold took out its Sunday night bounce high, I also warned that it would open the door to much greater complexity in our charts, including a potential b-wave triangle, and an ending diagonal for the c-wave down.  And, that is currently where we stand.In looking at the attached 60-minute GC chart, you will see I am outlining the potential ending diagonal structure for this c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Is That Our “Bounce” In Metals?

My main premise has been that we are likely within a 4th wave consolidation/pullback in gold and GDX and a 2nd wave in silver, and I am still very much of that opinion.   The question with which we have been grappling is whether the c-wave of that 4th wave in gold and GDX and the 2nd wave in silver has begun? For now, I am still of the opinion that it has.In both gold and GDX, we have what can be viewed as a 1-2, i-ii downside set up developing.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Are Metals Starting To Crack?

At this point in time, I am starting to see a bit more evidence that we may have a b-wave top in place in both GDX and GLD at this time.  While not the most clear and convincing evidence just yet, we may be starting the wave 1 down in their respective c-waves. While the respective 2nd waves in that wave 1 is quite shallow in both, it does leave some questions about that micro count.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

Silver Stretching Its Legs

As I just posted in the trading room as an alert, silver is finally trying to stretch its legs.  But, I still think the evidence suggests this is a final move in this rally rather than the start of a new one.  As I noted in the live video yesterday morning to the full-time membership, the last consolidation just below us really counts best as a triangle.  And, we know that a triangle most commonly takes shape in either a 4th wave or a b-wave.  That means that the move out of a triangle is most often the final move in a trending move whether it is a 5th wave or a c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

Still Expecting Lower Prices In Metals

Nothing has changed in the bigger picture in my metals analysis.  But, the paths to the lower levels is still an open question.Starting with gold, I can now count 5 waves down in a leading diagonal to begin the c-wave lower. But, we really would need to bounce from the 3285 region in the futures (Aug contract) in order to retain this path.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

Metals Rally Before Next Bout Of Weakness

Due to my travels, I do not have a lot of time for this update.  So, I am going to keep it simple.GLD seems to be rallying I the [c] wave of an expanded b-wave flat.  Within the [c] wave, we seem to still need a 4-5 to complete it.   But, should we see a 5-wave decline begin from this point forth, then we can view that as wave 1 of the c-wave down, and the wave 2 bounce could be a good shorting opportunity.Silver is still trying to get to its target blue box to complete 5 waves up.  Thereafter, I would still expect a corrective wave [2] pullback, which would be a good buying opportunity.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 months ago
Down Arrow

Free 15-Day Trial

• S&P 500 Wave Analysis
• Gold, Silver, Oil & US Dollar Reports
• Stocks, Options, Cryptocurrencies & more
• Live Coaching & Webinars
CREATE A NEW ACCOUNT
No Credit Card Required
Previous or current members login here.
1 Free Trial per Person
By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy. You will receive access to our Trading Room, plus account-related emails and our weekend e-newsletter containing news, updates & promotions from ElliottWaveTrader. You can withdraw your consent at anytime.

OUR MEMBERS SAY ...

I live Finance. 80hrs a week corp finance. I trade as a hobby and in my opinion this is the best site in the world for someone to learn about markets... i rue the day when it is no more or its core is changed. there is NO BETTER SITE IN THE WORLD to get the off-cuff input/feedback/knowledge across ALL MARKETS like this site... Thank you to the analysts here who grind out thousands of charts each week.
"GibsonDog" - Trading Room
My faith in God and my faith in Avi and his team. God lead me to this service over 10 years ago. For a decade I have heard Avi point his bat at this very moment in time calling this S&P level. Though the years I have witnessed him point his bat months, even years before metals hit their highs and lows with almost perfect big picture accuracy. Against every other analysts opinion. I have seen him bullied relentlessly on his public articles on SA and stick to his guns and proven so correct with no one ever apologizing or admitting he called it.
"sdmavrick" - Seeking Alpha
My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
"AAMilne" - Trading Room
I’ve subscribed for 5 years now and I have to say I see that you’ve been right on this the whole time. Who would’ve thought gold and silver would’ve rallied with rates this high for this long and the markets continued higher as well. Always thought your charts were good but always thought in the back of my mind that rate cuts and other news actually led. So now that I’ve admitted defeat u are free to gloat. Well deserved
"Lil_G" - Seeking Alpha
I worked on trading desks at top investment banks for 10 years, then traded on my own for another 8. I've seen 100s of research from the best analysts in the business. Avi and EWT is the only one I'm willing to pay for right now.
"tzeyi" - Seeking Alpha
“I was 100% in equities and been killing it for 2 years, but I heeded your warning and took everything off the table. I've been cautiously trading your recommendations and now when everyone I know is getting wrecked, I'm still profiting. Thank you so much for what you do, my family and future are safe because of it.”
"DoctorBeat" - Trading Room
This service has not only made me money in trades but equally important it got me out of the market before the meltdown.
"BigDaddyTuna" - Trading Room
"Your service and insight is phenomenal, and has definitely changed my outlook on the market. I’ve been actively working on recruiting new members to your service. It’ll save their financial life."
"Bidking82" - Trading Room
"Today, I achieved my highest weekly profit ever ....I see this as a testament to the power of the guidance available here. I ignored all narratives and traded the charts with discipline. I set clear parameters for each trade, immediately placing OCO (One Cancels the Other) orders with both stops and limits. I made some adjustments as the charts evolved, but kept the orders in place, and allowed the process to unfold. Sincere thanks to all the analysts and members who help make this such an incredible community—especially Avi, Zac, Mike, Levi, and Garrett. I'm incredibly grateful!"
"Dre-" - Trading Room
CNBC had a stat this morning that over the last 20 years 86% of money managers/hedge funds have underperformed the market. They couldn't figure out why that’s the case given how 'smart' these people are. . . . I know my performance since joining the site has skyrocketed!
"HenryH" - Trading Room

  Matched “”
x