Articles Related to GDX

Metals Are Moving In The Shadows

It has been interesting watching the metals move of late, as almost all the action has taken place during after-hours.  As an example, when gold struck its recent local bottom to what I am counting as wave 3, it happened in the overnight session.   Then, yesterday, it took the market the entire day to set up a 1-2, i-ii pattern, and as soon as the market closed, silver and gold broke out in their 3rd waves.I even noted it in a post I made at 1PM:“The way this continually hesitates at the highs seems to suggest it may attempt a break out overnight.   We will see.  As long as we hold over the overnight low, this is pointing higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Are Metals About To Whipsaw or Waterfall?

As I outlined over the weekend, gold was the clearest of the charts of late.  And, I also noted that should we see a sustained break of the 5000 region, then we are likely next heading to the 4800 region which will be a VERY important point for the market.To explain again, thus far, we have dropped down to the 1.00 extension (4800 region) off the 1-2 downside set up we have been tracking.  Normally, when the market bottoms at the 1.00 extension and begins an impulsive rally back up through the .618 extension (4983.50), it tells us that the market is not going to follow through on the downside set up, and that the decline was really a corrective a-b-c pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Same Bigger Picture View – But Mixed Micro Messages

While the bigger structure right now is pointing lower, the micro structure is still not wholly clear, and providing some very near term mixed messages.  Allow me to explain.Starting with GDX, we seem to be working on a 1-2 decline in the c-wave.  But, there is still a bit of a question in my mind as to whether the wave 2 is done, as we did not even reach the .382 retracement of the initial decline from the b-wave high.  That is an unusually shallow 2nd wave retrace.  So much so that a full 5-wave projection from the high this week points us to the 62 region in GDX, which is the 2.00 extension based upon the current 1-2 structure in place.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Downside Set Up - Market Analysis for Mar 4th, 2026

While I am showing a potential 1-2, i-ii in both gold and silver, I have to note there are a number of issues with it.  First, I cannot say that the wave i structure is the cleanest of 5-wave structures.  Second, normally, wave i of 3 will target AT LEAST the .382 extension of waves 1-2, whereas they normally target the .618 extension of waves 1-2.  And, what I have labeled as wave i of 3 has not even come close to the .382 extension.  So, needless to say, I really need a bit more evidence to make this immediate downside set up a much higher probability. The other issue I have is that I really have no clear similar downside set up in GDX.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Be On The Lookout

As I write this update, gold seems to be a relatively clear 3-wave pullback, and silver is questionable as to whether it is 3 or 5.  You see, what would count as a 5th wave in silver is really so large it can also be considered a c-wave, which would then count it as a corrective a-b-c pullback.  So, where does that leave us?Well, without a CLEAR 5-wave decline, it tells us that the probability that the larger c-wave decline is not highly likely.  And, we have to then seek other potential options.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

What exactly is a "hedge" and do I need one?

Let's go through the following four questions and considerations.
by Zac Mannes - 1 month ago

Setting Up The Next Leg Down

As I outlined over the weekend, the silver chart was providing us with the clearest path as to how a b-wave can potentially complete.  And, I would say that this is still true.   So, let’s look at the smaller degree chart in silver as our guide.From the weekend update, we were looking for the market to minimally continue this rally towards the 93 region, which is the .500 retracement of the initial decline off the all-time high in silver.  Today, the market approached the 92 level and has seemingly backed off.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

I Can Only Give To You What I Can See

I am presenting you with three charts, all telling me somewhat different stories.  So, I am just going to get into the charts.Starting with gold, while I can fashion an argument to claim that this b-wave has completed, I cannot say that I would wholeheartedly believe it.  It would have made much more sense if the market had begun this decline from the February 11th high in impulsive fashion.  Then I would be able to more strongly consider that this b-wave has concluded and the c-wave has begun.  But, that is not what we have seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

What The Heck Is Up (or not up) With Silver?

While both gold and GDX have seen very nice corrective bounces thus far, with GDX approaching the .764 retracement of its initial decline and gold approaching the .618 retracement of the same, silver has only mustered a move to the .382 retracement region.   The question on my and everyone else’s mind is how do we read this?  If I were looking at gold and GDX in a vacuum, I would be shorting the crap out of those two charts.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Short and Sweet - Market Analysis for Feb 5th, 2026

There really is not much for me to add to my metals analysis at this time.  My view remains that we are mired in a b-wave within a larger a-b-c corrective structure off the recent highs.  And, I think it is reasonable to expect one more rally before this b-wave completes.Of course, should all 3 charts break below their recent lows, then I have to assume the c-wave is already in progress, especially since we have hit the minimum targets for this b-wave in both the GC and GDX charts, but we have fallen short in silver.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Extreme And Dangerously So

To call this move in gold now “extreme” is beyond an understatement.  Moreover, not only did we get the spike out of the channel in continuation of this parabola, but it has even accelerated further, which now places us in what I believe to be a dangerous environment.  These types of moves usually end with a VERY strong reversal and drop to the region from which this diagonal began.With regard to the wave structure in gold, I am seeing this as a very extended wave v of the c-wave of within the 5th wave of the ending diagonal, which you can see on the 60-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Late Cycle Action - Market Analysis for Jan 21st, 2026

As I have outlined many times before, the gold and mining stock market bottomed at the end of 2015, and we have since been involved in a 10+ year bull market in gold and GDX. While silver bottomed later, it has caught up rather well, as is typical of silver, and all the charts seem to be suggesting this is late cycle action.Of course, there still could be another 4-5 to still be seen, which is my alternative count in silver and gold, but my primary count in GDX.  But, we have to recognize that this is likely an auspicious time to be harvesting profits we have earned over the last 10 years.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Short Update - Market Analysis for Jan 15th, 2026

I am putting out a short update since I am absolutely exhausted from my travel to Israel today.In gold, we now have enough waves to consider this rally as having topped.  Yet, we have not seen the usual hallmark of an ending diagonal completion, wherein it spikes through the trend channel followed by a stronger reversal back into it to start its decline.  So, until we actually see a sustained break down below 4545, I still have to leave that door open.Silver has more than enough waves in place as well.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

The Messy Metals March Higher

While we caught a nice low a little over a week ago, the rally off that low was quite promising as a standard structure . . . until today.  But, as I was noting yesterday in my updates and in the trading room, something seemed “off” about the structure.  Now, the best I can get is an ending diagonal for wave 5.So, let’s look at the charts and see where we stand, as it is not simple, especially when we look at gold.In silver, the alternative we were tracking thus far was presented in yellow, and would provide a c-wave decline to complete a larger wave 4 structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Still Looking Up . . . BUT

With the market following through early in the week to the upside and not seemingly likely to break down in a major (c) wave decline YET, I just wanted to add one more potential path to the mix, as we like to try to stay at least one step ahead of the market.With the market invalidating the red alternative count as shown over the weekend in GDX, and almost invalidating it in silver, I have to put another alternative path before you.   That is represented by the yellow larger (a)(b)(c) shown in GDX and silver right now.  This is clearly not as bearish as the prior alternative count.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Long Set Up Developing

With the market finally providing to us a sizeable pullback, we are now at the support region for both gold and silver.  So, let’s start with silver.As we can see on the 144-minute chart, price has come down to the top of the support box, and the MACD has now dropped down to the oversold region from which prior rallies have begun.   So, this is a general buying signal.   The only question is whether the low for this c-wave of wave 4 is in place yet.  But, with the decline yesterday really only counting best as a 3-wave drop, I cannot say with a high degree of confidence that it has completed.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Mixed Signals In Metals Suggests SOME Caution Going Forward

As I warned in the weekend update, silver was getting a bit overheated and was concerning me about a potential early blow off top.  So, the bigger caution issue I am seeing on my charts is now the silver chart.  If you remember back in the spring, as I was outlining the potential parabolic rally we were expecting, we based our views upon the 2010-2011 market fractal for its parabolic rally and blow off top. As the market began that rally, we were able to then assign a general target region for that rally, which we placed on the weekly SLV chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Silver Will Never Come Down Again

The way the silver rally has extended, it sure feels like it will never come down again, especially as many are now suggesting targets of $200 in the near term for silver.  But, needless to say, the wave structure is rather full – and then some – for this segment of the rally.  And, I still am expecting one more pullback before the final phase of this rally likely takes hold.  Yet, for now, after cashing in some of my shorter dated aggressive long positions, I am still holding my final aggressive longer-dated positions (all bought near the October lows, as announced in the trading room) and will simply add to them on the next pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Is This The Final Move?

For those that remember early this year, I was strongly urging that we prepare for what will likely be a parabolic run and catch up move in silver.  In fact, I attached the “conservative” chart path I laid out in the spring.  I even noted at the time that I would not be surprised if the final 5th wave higher would provide us with many $2+ days of rally.  And, that is what we are seeing of late.So, of course, this is begging the question “is this the final move higher?”I am still struggling with that answer, as I still think silver has a bigger pullback coming.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Silver’s Time To Shine

While silver is pushing into the minimum expected target region we set a while ago, I cannot say that this changes much in the analysis.  I am still uncertain as to which of the paths silver is going to take higher, as this is just a 5th wave in all the potential paths I have posted.   And, yes, I still expect a pullback.   But, as the analysis presented over the last week noted, I am still not sure how deep that pullback will be.   And, based upon the depth of the pullback, we will have a much better idea as to how high silver can travel in its larger 5th wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Going To Need More Information

Unfortunately, where the metals currently reside, we will need more information based upon the upcoming wave action over the coming weeks before we can make any determinations.   Moreover, the structures have turned quite complex, but I am going to attempt to simplify the analysis.  And, I hope I am successful.Let’s start with gold.   The structure of the rally off the end of October low is clearly a 3-wave structure.  And, as long as the resistance box on the 60-minute chart is respected, then we are well within a text-book a-b-c structure for the yellow (b) wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 months ago

Metals Pushing The Limits Again

If you have experience with the manner in which the metals trade, then you know that they almost always push their limits. And, silver seems to be doing that as I write this update.There is no question that the rally that we have seen since silver struck the wave (4) support/target box has been overlapping and corrective looking.  This has been quite consistent with the expectation that it has been a corrective rally.  And, that is how I currently view it.  The question then is how to count it?First, silver is still retaining its 1-2 downside structure as long as we remain below the (b) wave high.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

Pressure Remains Down - Market Analysis for Nov 19th, 2025

I have to keep this update short as I just got back to my hotel and have to run out for a dinner meeting. While I can count both gold and GDX as a potential i-ii down in the continuation of their respective (c) waves down, silver would really count best with one more rally to complete a deeper wave 2.  But, the main theme remains the same.  As long as the various charts remain corrective below their respective (b) wave highs, I am expecting a (c) wave decline, which will be signaled by a follow through break down below the lows of wave 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

We Are At Yet Another Metals Inflection Point

I am sending this update out earlier than usual as I believe we are approaching an inflection point now in the metals complex.Based upon the last few week’s price action, it was not easy to maintain an expectation of a bigger (b) wave rally.  However, we have now finally seen what I had wanted to see these last few weeks.  And, now that we have, we are approaching a test for our primary count.As you know, our primary count had the initial decline in the complex as an (a) wave, with this rally being a (b) wave, which was structured as an a-b-c move higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

Note Of Caution - Market Analysis for Nov 6th, 2025

As I was reviewing the metals charts this morning, I wanted to send out a note of caution before I left for the day. While my preference has been for a higher (b) wave bounce across the metals complex, I have noticed that both GDX and GC can be considered as completing a (b) wave triangle this morning.  While I do not have the same potential in silver, it still is enough evidence of a potential completing a (b) wave that requires me to send out this note of caution.Should we see an impulsive break down in GDX below 68, in GC below 3935, and in silver below 47.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago
Down Arrow

Free 15-Day Trial

• S&P 500 Wave Analysis
• Gold, Silver, Oil & US Dollar Reports
• Stocks, Options, Cryptocurrencies & more
• Live Coaching & Webinars
CREATE A NEW ACCOUNT
No Credit Card Required
Previous or current members login here.
1 Free Trial per Person
By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy. You will receive access to our Trading Room, plus account-related emails and our weekend e-newsletter containing news, updates & promotions from ElliottWaveTrader. You can withdraw your consent at anytime.

OUR MEMBERS SAY ...

I live Finance. 80hrs a week corp finance. I trade as a hobby and in my opinion this is the best site in the world for someone to learn about markets... i rue the day when it is no more or its core is changed. there is NO BETTER SITE IN THE WORLD to get the off-cuff input/feedback/knowledge across ALL MARKETS like this site... Thank you to the analysts here who grind out thousands of charts each week.
"GibsonDog" - Trading Room
My faith in God and my faith in Avi and his team. God lead me to this service over 10 years ago. For a decade I have heard Avi point his bat at this very moment in time calling this S&P level. Though the years I have witnessed him point his bat months, even years before metals hit their highs and lows with almost perfect big picture accuracy. Against every other analysts opinion. I have seen him bullied relentlessly on his public articles on SA and stick to his guns and proven so correct with no one ever apologizing or admitting he called it.
"sdmavrick" - Seeking Alpha
My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
"AAMilne" - Trading Room
I’ve subscribed for 5 years now and I have to say I see that you’ve been right on this the whole time. Who would’ve thought gold and silver would’ve rallied with rates this high for this long and the markets continued higher as well. Always thought your charts were good but always thought in the back of my mind that rate cuts and other news actually led. So now that I’ve admitted defeat u are free to gloat. Well deserved
"Lil_G" - Seeking Alpha
I worked on trading desks at top investment banks for 10 years, then traded on my own for another 8. I've seen 100s of research from the best analysts in the business. Avi and EWT is the only one I'm willing to pay for right now.
"tzeyi" - Seeking Alpha
“I was 100% in equities and been killing it for 2 years, but I heeded your warning and took everything off the table. I've been cautiously trading your recommendations and now when everyone I know is getting wrecked, I'm still profiting. Thank you so much for what you do, my family and future are safe because of it.”
"DoctorBeat" - Trading Room
This service has not only made me money in trades but equally important it got me out of the market before the meltdown.
"BigDaddyTuna" - Trading Room
"Your service and insight is phenomenal, and has definitely changed my outlook on the market. I’ve been actively working on recruiting new members to your service. It’ll save their financial life."
"Bidking82" - Trading Room
"Today, I achieved my highest weekly profit ever ....I see this as a testament to the power of the guidance available here. I ignored all narratives and traded the charts with discipline. I set clear parameters for each trade, immediately placing OCO (One Cancels the Other) orders with both stops and limits. I made some adjustments as the charts evolved, but kept the orders in place, and allowed the process to unfold. Sincere thanks to all the analysts and members who help make this such an incredible community—especially Avi, Zac, Mike, Levi, and Garrett. I'm incredibly grateful!"
"Dre-" - Trading Room
CNBC had a stat this morning that over the last 20 years 86% of money managers/hedge funds have underperformed the market. They couldn't figure out why that’s the case given how 'smart' these people are. . . . I know my performance since joining the site has skyrocketed!
"HenryH" - Trading Room

  Matched “”
x