Late Cycle Action - Market Analysis for Jan 21st, 2026
By
Avi Gilburt
As I have outlined many times before, the gold and mining stock market bottomed at the end of 2015, and we have since been involved in a 10+ year bull market in gold and GDX. While silver bottomed later, it has caught up rather well, as is typical of silver, and all the charts seem to be suggesting this is late cycle action.
Of course, there still could be another 4-5 to still be seen, which is my alternative count in silver and gold, but my primary count in GDX. But, we have to recognize that this is likely an auspicious time to be harvesting profits we have earned over the last 10 years.
As we turn to focus on the structure in gold, we finally did get the break-out of the trend channel we often see in ending diagonals. Yet we have not seen the strong reversal back into the channel to signal that the diagonal has completed. Moreofer, I want you to take note that the monthly GLD chart has struck our long-term target, and the 60-minute GC chart seems to either have completed its c-wave in the 5th wave of its ending diagonal, or it can still try for one more push towards 4946 for one more higher high. And, until we see a sustained break-down back into the channel, with follow through below 4731, a higher high is still not an unreasonable probability.
What I find interesting is that, similar to 2011, we may not get to the targets most expect in both silver (100) and gold (5000), as we seem to now be projecting to come up just short of those targets, even if we see one more rally.
I also want you to note the red line indicator on the monthly GLD chart. That represents the .382 retracement if this is actually the alt (3) in gold. However, should we break down below that support, it begins to move the probabilities into the impending bear market I expect in gold once this rally completes.
Silver is postured in the same manner, as it may attempt a run at the 98.50 region before it completes this structure.
But, I do have to note that GDX does look like 5 down from today’s high, which is likely the a-wave of the start of the larger degree wave 4 correction that I still expect.
So, while there is still some potential for gold and silver to get one more higher high, I think we are about to see a major top imminently being struck across the complex.
