Quick Update - Market Analysis for Oct 30th, 2025
By
Avi Gilburt
I want to reiterate in this update that my preference is still to see more of a "bounce" in the metals chart for a bigger and deeper (b) wave before we begin a (c) wave decline. However, the market has been developing potential signals that could suggest we go down sooner than currently expected. So, I wanted to send out a quick update.
The most clear picture of a more immediate downside potential is in gold. Earlier today, I sent out the following Alert in the main room:
"I am being VERY cautious in gold right now due to the other potential paths. So, there is a small resistance box on the chart which we are now hitting, and it rises up to the 4070 level wherein we would have a a-b-c with an a=c level at 4070. Needless to say, that is the level we have to exceed to make it significantly less likely that the yellow or red counts can play out as shown."
Thus far, gold has run up to the resistance box and backed off. Again, I would much prefer we blow through it soon to give us the deeper (b) wave pullback.
However, if we remain below it over the coming day or two, then we may either have complete a shallow (b) wave as presented in red, or we may even continue to trace out a (b) wave triangle, as outlined in purple. Both of these potentials would point us down towards the 3400-3500 region. But, please note that 3800 will be a very important support to break to signal that we are on our way down to the 3400/3500 region.
If the red count plays out in silver, then it likely is targeting the lower end of our support/target box for wave (4). We will need to see an impulsive decline for wave 1 of the (c) wave to suggest we have topped sooner than I currently would like to see.
And, in GDX, we have the same story. We will need a 5-wave decline below this week's low to suggest we are dropping in the (c) wave in red towards the 57 region.
So, again, my preference is still for more of a "bounce" in a bigger (b) wave. But, we need to be able to recognize when a (c) wave may begin sooner than I current prefer.
