Articles Related to SLV

Let It Run - Market Analysis for Apr 3rd, 2024

The metals market has been running quite nicely and we have been enjoying the fruits of our patience. But, I am going to admonish you to not get too cute in your positions. To that end, I will be opening this update with a quote from Jessee Livermore, and closing it with another quote of his as well.“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Still Looking For A Deeper Pullback To Confirm The Five Up

This past week we saw what can count as five up on Silver, Gold and GDX. The pattern is so far fairly clear in regards to that potential five-up. As Avi noted in the last update while we do have a fairly clean potential five up we still need to see a corrective retrace lower followed by a break back over the previous high to confirm that we are ready to begin the larger degree third wave up. So far we have a bit of divergence in regard to this pullback with Silver pulling back the furthest while GDX has actually exceeded the previous high.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Melt-Up Phase May Take A Few More Weeks Before It Is Triggered In Some Charts

Thus far, the metals are making nice progress, as they continue to fill out their bullish set ups. Yet, the moment we are all awaiting is when they trigger into the heart of a 3rd wave. And, we are certainly getting closer. So, let’s look at what we need to see for that to happen.Starting with silver, oddly enough, we still have not cleared the top of wave 2, as presented by the yellow line on the silver charts. Clearly, this still much be done in order to invalidate the yellow count completely. Yet, I can say that the probability of the yellow count at this time seems quite low.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 months ago

Pushed To The Limits

When engaging in trading precious metals, one has to come to realization quite quickly that they are much more volatile than standard equity markets. And, due to this realization, one must learn how to approach this market in a different manner than you would equities.You see, when the metals rally or when they decline, they often push us to the limits of our expectations. When we were topping this past spring, and everyone was so sure that we were going to break out, I kept trying to lower your expectations, as the structure suggested that a larger pullback was likely to be seen first, as we likely needed a 2nd wave before that break out was going to happen.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 months ago

I Don’t Think Silver Is Signaling A Bottom - YET

While I would absolutely love to consider silver as having bottomed now that we have moved through resistance, I have several issues with it, which I will now explain, and then outline how I intend on approaching the market in the coming weeks.First, I want to reiterate again that I have been stressing this to be a bottoming structure. And, if you are interested in a long-term play in the metals complex, this is yet another buying opportunity in the bigger picture.Second, I want to note that we have been attempting to track a more protracted 2nd wave pullback across the board in the various charts I outlined.

by Avi Gilburt - 7 months ago

Expanded 2nd Wave - Market Analysis for Aug 9th, 2023

For those following me through the years, you would know that if the market provides us with a potential bullish count, that is going to be my primary. And, the main reason is because if the market takes off, and we are not ready for it, it is VERY hard to find an entry. However, if the market only meanders to the upside in that structure, we can then lighten up, or also stop out on a break of support, only to re-enter at a lower price. So, as I will continue to handle the metals market as I have in the past.

by Avi Gilburt - 8 months ago

2 Out of 3 Over Pivot

The Passover holiday just ended, so I wanted to get a quick note out regarding the metals. Both GDX and silver are now over their respective pivots. Yet, GLD/GC still are a bit of an issue and can still support one more pullback before the heart of a 3rd wave is confirmed.So, if you are choosing to take more aggressive longs over the pivot in silver and GDX before GC/GLD confirms, you can set tight stops at just below the pivot. At this point in time, if we are indeed in the heart of a 3rd wave, we should not see levels below the pivot.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 year ago

Quick Update In Metals

This may be a bit premature, but let me start preparing you for upside targets if we break out. But, if GC does push a bit higher today, then there is an argument that wave ii may already be done.I have added a major pivot on the GDX chart, and you have had it already on the gold chart. A break out near term will clearly point us to the pivot. But, the wave (3) of 3 target in GDX is a MINIMUM of 38.40, but more likely north of 41.As far as gold, I think wave iii of 3 will likely point us north of 2550, most likely the 2330-2375 region.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 year ago

Metals Market Refuses To Retrace

We have come to yet another metals update wherein I have nothing new to offer. The metals have simply been providing us with a high level consolidation and would still look best with a [c] wave decline.The one thing I did note yesterday was something I discuss every now and then regarding b-waves. When the prior rally comes up short of the ideal target, as we did in silver, we often see the b-wave of the ensuing corrective structure come back to strike that target. And, it looks like that is what we have seen in silver over the last day or so.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 year ago

Upside Pressure For Now

Not much has really changed from the weekend update. But, GC has potential to lead us higher in an impulsive move off the recent low. As you can see from the attached GC chart, I have a potential (i)(ii)i-ii in place on GC. And, if we can hold the blue box of support just below us, and take out the pivot, you can place your stops just below the pivot and let it run. It would be set up for a 5-wave rally back towards the highs struck earlier this month.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 year ago

Metals Certainly Not Making This Easy

When I zoom out on all the larger degree charts, it is quite clear to me that the reasonable probabilities side with a large rally likely to be seen in metals as we look towards 2023. But, the question has been how this decline completes.The issue we have been having with the last segment of this decline is that it has been overlapping and likely tracing out as an ending diagonal. But, with the overlapping structures in 3-waves each not really providing us with a solid completion point, and without a 5-wave rally off the low, it does not lend itself to a high probability view that the bottom is indeed in place.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 year ago

Can Metals See One More Drop?

In all honesty, when it comes to silver, I do not have a whole lot of clarity. While I have this potentially counted as a c-wave of a 4th wave as having completed, it really is VERY deep for a 4th wave, even in a diagonal. It would actually be easier if silver got a lower low to reset the count. But, as long as we remain below the resistance, I have no way of viewing us as rallying to complete the leading diagonal.As you can see from the GDX chart, we have dropped right down to the bottom of the pivot and have begun a rally.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 year ago

A Pullback Is Healthy

When I look at all the different charts I track in the metals complex, what is interesting is that they seem to be at varying degrees of their specific trend. Why that may make a difference, as I explained in my live video this morning, is that if we do complete a i-ii as shown on the silver charts in the coming month or two, then we may have a wonderful opportunity for a catch up move in silver later this year, since it has lagged the other charts.In the meantime, I am viewing the current pullback as wave 4 of wave i, in the leading diagonal for silver.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Not Clear, But Letting The Bulls Run

In the last several months, I have twice attempted to hedge my long positions in the metals complex, and each time, they have been stopped out. At this time, I have no reason to do so again, despite the lack of clarity in the bullish structure with which the bulls have been pushing the metals higher. And, as long as the support I cite below continues to hold in the coming week, then I will simply allow my long positions to run.I think the clearest smaller degree structure is in the GDX chart. I have included an 8-minute chart in this update to show you the corrective pullback potential I am seeing.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

I Know It Looks Bullish

Despite the metals looking and feeling bullish, I simply do not have a reasonably impulsive structure to follow to the upside. In fact, both GDX and silver exhibit downside potential structures still. And, GDX would have to take out Novembers high to invalidate that.Look folks. Anyone that has followed me through the years knows that I am not a perma-bull or bear when it comes to metals. I simply do what the market tells me. For example, in September of 2011, I went from being bullish to bearish. And, then in the fall of 2015, I again turned bullish. So, for me, it is not about anything but what the market tells me.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Pushing On 2nd Wave Retracement

We have certainly gotten the rally I had wanted to see in the metals. And, the rally is pushing a deep retracement in GDX and GLD.Since the GLD is the cleanest of the structures, I will note that as long as we hold the 169.85 region, I can reasonably expect a 4-5 to take shape before this c-wave rally completes. Of course, if we break out over the late January high, then it invalidates this immediate (i)(ii) downside structure. But, as long as we remain below that high, this structure remains intact.Since I am traveling, I am going to keep this update short.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

When The Facts Change

John Maynard Keynes was once asked why he changed a prognostication they he published months before. His answer to his questioner was “when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”I have seen several people note that they were upset that I have had to change my views on metals recently when the market failed to take advantage of the break out set-up we were tracking a few weeks ago. Well, my answer to you is that if the market fails to take advantage of a break out set up, there is nothing I can do other than provide you with what that means to me based upon the charts.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Not What Metals Bulls Want To Hear

With the current failure to launch, it seems that the market may be re-setting at lower levels before the bull market can advance again. While I know this is not what many of you want to hear, I think this is going to have to be my primary count for as long as each of the charts hold over their recent highs. Specifically, the GDX now has its resistance at the 33 region struck last week, as we now seem to have 5 waves down off that high. If we see the full decline potential in this structure, then we should be minimally targeting just below the 27 region. But, I would like to see a wave 2 bounce before that begins.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

So Dang Frustrating - Market Analysis for Dec 22nd, 2021

Yesterday, I wrote the following regarding the GDX structure:“The GDX has now made something formerly straight forward infinitely more complex. The rally off that last low is looking like an impulse. So, it leaves me with several choices here. You see, the rally we got off the potential wave ii low "looks" like a 3 wave rally. Yet, the gap up hides the wave count. So, it is possible there is 5 waves up in that for wave 1 already. But, due to the "look" and not really knowing what is in the gap, I am going to get a bit more cautious before I buy a break out.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Metals Are In A Precarious Posture Again

Before you freak out, I want to again note that the current action has made a drop to GDX 21 much less likely should we see downside follow through. Rather, it would more likely target the 25-26 region.So, let’s move into the update.As most of you know, I try to remain very objective when I review market structure and provide analysis accordingly. While I would certainly like to be bullish at this time, I am sorry to note that the market has not provided me a structure with which I can retain a strong bullish bias. Rather, it is signaling more downside to me, until proven otherwise.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Approaching Next Support For GDX

As we approach the next support highlighted on my 60-minute chart for GDX, the one thing that is clear is that we still have no initial reversal signal. We have continued to maintain below resistance levels we have continually adjusted lower as the market has moved lower, and the market has not provided us any initial bullish indications during that time.Moreover, the divergences on some charts are starting to fray, which is not good news for any immediate bullish resolution.Yet, the downside structure in GC has more overlap than I would normally expect if we really are going to see the fullness of this decline.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Still Very Precarious In Metals

I wish I had better news for the bulls, but I cannot say the market is instilling a lot of bullish confidence in me right now.You see, our Negative Nelly Box is still very much containing any upside surges. Moreover, as long as we hold over 31.47, we even have a potential for another rally to push us up to the top of the box. But, that would simply count as a bigger a-b-c corrective rally, and not change the picture much. However, if the market were to drop more immediately below 31.47, and follow through 30.70, then resistance becomes 31.50 and we have an initial signal that wave [iii] down is in progress.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Bulls Are Losing The Battle

I am going to keep this brief, as Rosh Hashana just ended and I am going to be leaving for North Carolina.But, needless to say, the only prayer the bulls have now is a leading diagonal. And, if is that is what your primary trading plan is based upon, then I suggest you stay very close to your screen, as you may have to adjust rather quickly.First, as many of you know, I do not rely upon leading diagonals for strong trading cues since they can just as easily be a corrective structure. And, even in this case, we would still need a high over last week’s high to even consider such a potential.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Bounce Should Be Seen

Over the weekend, I highlighted the GDX chart, and outlined a VERY important support level, which is highlighted by a blue box on the attached 60-minute chart. Today, we have struck that support. Moreover, it looks like we are completing a 5-wave move down into that support from the high struck in early August.Now, if my micro count of 5-down is correct, it means we should see AT LEAST a bounce in wave [ii] in red. And, that is the more aggressively bearish pattern. And, personally, I think I am going to be adding some hedges at the wave [ii] target zone for protective purposes.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Metals Bullish Case Is Not Dead . . . But

As I explained in the video update this morning, the bullish case in the metals is not dead yet. Rather, I would say it is on life support at this time.You see, the current decline can still be a wave [ii] in silver as well as a wave ii in GLD, as both can still count as a rather reasonable a-b-c structure, yet much deeper than I would prefer to see.However, I cannot say the same for the GDX. In fact, the GDX looks like a 5-wave decline off the high struck in May.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

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