Articles Related to SLV

Looking For A “Bounce”

We have seen quite the selloff in the metals complex. When the rubber band is stretched to an extreme in one direction, the snap back can be quite painful. And, I tried to warn quite vehemently about a potential for such a reversal, but too many were busy cheerleading.While I was able to identify the blow-off top occurring in real-time last week in gold, we are now down to the initial support regions on our various charts. In GC and GDX, we are now at the lower end of the upper support box. In silver, we almost struck the top of the major support box. And, thus far, all count best as 3-wave declines.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 hours ago

The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

Not much changes in the bigger picture. As Ecclesiastes noted, there is nothing new under the sun. If you take the time to look back to the last time we struck a major top in the metals (2011), you will see the exact same analysts that were, at that time, claiming that we were only “getting started” with the metals rally, as they were falling over each other claiming higher targets than the next. At the time, the only argument one would see amongst them was how far beyond the 2000 level gold would rally.Well, today, they are lining up in the same way. Many are now calling for levels well exceeding 5000 in gold and 100 in silver.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Largest Single Day Decline Since Rally Began

Today gold has experienced the largest single day decline since this rally began. The question of course is if this is the wave iv in blue or if we have finally begun a larger degree correction for wave (4)?As I am writing this update, the market is approaching the top of the support box for the alt iv. That is the 3930 region. We will have to watch this action very carefully in the coming days. As long as all bounces are corrective, we can maintain a reasonable expectation for at least one more decline. That means we can view this as an a-wave decline today, with the expectation of a b-wave corrective bounce.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Note On Bigger Picture

For years, we have been expecting silver and GDX to provide a catch up move. And, now they are there. In fact, all charts are now pointing to only one 4th and 5th wave left before this cycle is likely completed.Today, silver seems to be breaking out in the 5th smaller degree wave which will likely complete wave (3) in its long term cycle. Gold is past that, but is now trying to complete its wave (3) in its final 5th, and GDX seems aligned with silver. So, I still very much think it is reasonable to expect a larger degree 4th wave still to come across the board.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is It Finally Pullback Time?

Needless to say, we are overdue for pullback time. And, the best evidence I have of that is in silver.With the market making it clear that it is completing wave 3 of (3), the micro count in that move still suggested we had a bit higher to reach before wave 3 was complete. At this time, I can say that almost all the squiggles are now in place to consider that count as complete. But, as we know, the metals have ralied quite strongly, and we need some confirmatory evidence that we have indeed completed wave 3 and are in progress within wave 4.So, I have added two signal levels on the 8-minute silver chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

My Path Forward In Metals

For those that have followed my work in metals through the years, you would know that we have caught just about every major turn in the charts for many years. And, that is because we follow the structure of the market very closely, as well as apply the standards that have worked for us for the 14 years I have been publishing my metals analysis publicly.Of late, I have been struggling with this action in gold, as while I have been expecting a correction since April, I have been seeking a standard 4th wave formation. Yet, thus far, that is not what we have seen.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Gold Looks Toppy - Market Analysis for Apr 2nd, 2025

No, I am not outright bearish of gold. But, I have to point out that it is really looking toppy right now, after quite a nice extension. And, with the MACD on the 60-minute rolling over, well, I really am not sure how much juice this has left in the tank to extend higher.As I noted earlier this week, I would need a sustained break-down below the 284/85 GLD support before we have our first signal that a top of some sort has been struck.For now, I am going to view that top as wave 4 within the c-wave of [v] of v of [3].

by Avi Gilburt - 6 months ago

Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is Set Up To Shine

When I think about the metals market, I chuckle as it has obliterated just about every expectation many have had about what drives the market.We have seen metals decline during a strong inflationary period in 2022, wherein most were expecting it to rally alongside inflation. We have seen metals rally alongside the US Dollar, when most were expecting it to move in the opposite direction to the dollar. And, we have seen rallies surprise many market participants due to a “lack of clear catalyst.”Well, anyone that has followed my work through the years should not be surprised.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 year ago

Silver Breaking Out?

Before I call it a night, I went back to align the counts on SLV and SI due to the potential move through the pivot noted on the 144-minute chart. Please do not take the timing as gospel, as this can happen a LOT faster than this is showing here, especially if we follow the action we saw in 2010-2011. The point of the chart is to show you that if we hold the micro support of the pivot this week then it gives you an idea as to how we are just starting the 3rd wave, and all pullbacks will likely be MUCH smaller as 4th waves from now on.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 year ago

Let It Run - Market Analysis for Apr 3rd, 2024

The metals market has been running quite nicely and we have been enjoying the fruits of our patience. But, I am going to admonish you to not get too cute in your positions. To that end, I will be opening this update with a quote from Jessee Livermore, and closing it with another quote of his as well.“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 year ago

Still Looking For A Deeper Pullback To Confirm The Five Up

This past week we saw what can count as five up on Silver, Gold and GDX. The pattern is so far fairly clear in regards to that potential five-up. As Avi noted in the last update while we do have a fairly clean potential five up we still need to see a corrective retrace lower followed by a break back over the previous high to confirm that we are ready to begin the larger degree third wave up. So far we have a bit of divergence in regard to this pullback with Silver pulling back the furthest while GDX has actually exceeded the previous high.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 year ago

Melt-Up Phase May Take A Few More Weeks Before It Is Triggered In Some Charts

Thus far, the metals are making nice progress, as they continue to fill out their bullish set ups. Yet, the moment we are all awaiting is when they trigger into the heart of a 3rd wave. And, we are certainly getting closer. So, let’s look at what we need to see for that to happen.Starting with silver, oddly enough, we still have not cleared the top of wave 2, as presented by the yellow line on the silver charts. Clearly, this still much be done in order to invalidate the yellow count completely. Yet, I can say that the probability of the yellow count at this time seems quite low.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 year ago

Pushed To The Limits

When engaging in trading precious metals, one has to come to realization quite quickly that they are much more volatile than standard equity markets. And, due to this realization, one must learn how to approach this market in a different manner than you would equities.You see, when the metals rally or when they decline, they often push us to the limits of our expectations. When we were topping this past spring, and everyone was so sure that we were going to break out, I kept trying to lower your expectations, as the structure suggested that a larger pullback was likely to be seen first, as we likely needed a 2nd wave before that break out was going to happen.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

I Don’t Think Silver Is Signaling A Bottom - YET

While I would absolutely love to consider silver as having bottomed now that we have moved through resistance, I have several issues with it, which I will now explain, and then outline how I intend on approaching the market in the coming weeks.First, I want to reiterate again that I have been stressing this to be a bottoming structure. And, if you are interested in a long-term play in the metals complex, this is yet another buying opportunity in the bigger picture.Second, I want to note that we have been attempting to track a more protracted 2nd wave pullback across the board in the various charts I outlined.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Expanded 2nd Wave - Market Analysis for Aug 9th, 2023

For those following me through the years, you would know that if the market provides us with a potential bullish count, that is going to be my primary. And, the main reason is because if the market takes off, and we are not ready for it, it is VERY hard to find an entry. However, if the market only meanders to the upside in that structure, we can then lighten up, or also stop out on a break of support, only to re-enter at a lower price. So, as I will continue to handle the metals market as I have in the past.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

2 Out of 3 Over Pivot

The Passover holiday just ended, so I wanted to get a quick note out regarding the metals. Both GDX and silver are now over their respective pivots. Yet, GLD/GC still are a bit of an issue and can still support one more pullback before the heart of a 3rd wave is confirmed.So, if you are choosing to take more aggressive longs over the pivot in silver and GDX before GC/GLD confirms, you can set tight stops at just below the pivot. At this point in time, if we are indeed in the heart of a 3rd wave, we should not see levels below the pivot.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Quick Update In Metals

This may be a bit premature, but let me start preparing you for upside targets if we break out. But, if GC does push a bit higher today, then there is an argument that wave ii may already be done.I have added a major pivot on the GDX chart, and you have had it already on the gold chart. A break out near term will clearly point us to the pivot. But, the wave (3) of 3 target in GDX is a MINIMUM of 38.40, but more likely north of 41.As far as gold, I think wave iii of 3 will likely point us north of 2550, most likely the 2330-2375 region.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Metals Market Refuses To Retrace

We have come to yet another metals update wherein I have nothing new to offer. The metals have simply been providing us with a high level consolidation and would still look best with a [c] wave decline.The one thing I did note yesterday was something I discuss every now and then regarding b-waves. When the prior rally comes up short of the ideal target, as we did in silver, we often see the b-wave of the ensuing corrective structure come back to strike that target. And, it looks like that is what we have seen in silver over the last day or so.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Upside Pressure For Now

Not much has really changed from the weekend update. But, GC has potential to lead us higher in an impulsive move off the recent low. As you can see from the attached GC chart, I have a potential (i)(ii)i-ii in place on GC. And, if we can hold the blue box of support just below us, and take out the pivot, you can place your stops just below the pivot and let it run. It would be set up for a 5-wave rally back towards the highs struck earlier this month.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 years ago

Metals Certainly Not Making This Easy

When I zoom out on all the larger degree charts, it is quite clear to me that the reasonable probabilities side with a large rally likely to be seen in metals as we look towards 2023. But, the question has been how this decline completes.The issue we have been having with the last segment of this decline is that it has been overlapping and likely tracing out as an ending diagonal. But, with the overlapping structures in 3-waves each not really providing us with a solid completion point, and without a 5-wave rally off the low, it does not lend itself to a high probability view that the bottom is indeed in place.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 years ago

Can Metals See One More Drop?

In all honesty, when it comes to silver, I do not have a whole lot of clarity. While I have this potentially counted as a c-wave of a 4th wave as having completed, it really is VERY deep for a 4th wave, even in a diagonal. It would actually be easier if silver got a lower low to reset the count. But, as long as we remain below the resistance, I have no way of viewing us as rallying to complete the leading diagonal.As you can see from the GDX chart, we have dropped right down to the bottom of the pivot and have begun a rally.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 years ago

A Pullback Is Healthy

When I look at all the different charts I track in the metals complex, what is interesting is that they seem to be at varying degrees of their specific trend. Why that may make a difference, as I explained in my live video this morning, is that if we do complete a i-ii as shown on the silver charts in the coming month or two, then we may have a wonderful opportunity for a catch up move in silver later this year, since it has lagged the other charts.In the meantime, I am viewing the current pullback as wave 4 of wave i, in the leading diagonal for silver.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 years ago

Not Clear, But Letting The Bulls Run

In the last several months, I have twice attempted to hedge my long positions in the metals complex, and each time, they have been stopped out. At this time, I have no reason to do so again, despite the lack of clarity in the bullish structure with which the bulls have been pushing the metals higher. And, as long as the support I cite below continues to hold in the coming week, then I will simply allow my long positions to run.I think the clearest smaller degree structure is in the GDX chart. I have included an 8-minute chart in this update to show you the corrective pullback potential I am seeing.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 years ago

I Know It Looks Bullish

Despite the metals looking and feeling bullish, I simply do not have a reasonably impulsive structure to follow to the upside. In fact, both GDX and silver exhibit downside potential structures still. And, GDX would have to take out Novembers high to invalidate that.Look folks. Anyone that has followed me through the years knows that I am not a perma-bull or bear when it comes to metals. I simply do what the market tells me. For example, in September of 2011, I went from being bullish to bearish. And, then in the fall of 2015, I again turned bullish. So, for me, it is not about anything but what the market tells me.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 years ago

Pushing On 2nd Wave Retracement

We have certainly gotten the rally I had wanted to see in the metals. And, the rally is pushing a deep retracement in GDX and GLD.Since the GLD is the cleanest of the structures, I will note that as long as we hold the 169.85 region, I can reasonably expect a 4-5 to take shape before this c-wave rally completes. Of course, if we break out over the late January high, then it invalidates this immediate (i)(ii) downside structure. But, as long as we remain below that high, this structure remains intact.Since I am traveling, I am going to keep this update short.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 years ago

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