Recent Articles by Mike Golembesky

Market Failed At Resistance, But The Pattern Remains Cloudy

Overnight, the market failed right at the key resistance level that would have needed to break to signal that we were heading directly higher per the yellow count. Today we saw additional downside follow-through; however, the move down off the high is counting better as a corrective wave pattern rather than an impulsive move.This wave structure still leaves several potential paths, and there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to which direction the market will ultimately break in the near term. I will note that the failure to move through resistance yesterday has made the potential for a direct move higher much less likely.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Market Closing In On Key Resistance Level

After finding a bottom yesterday and moving higher into the close, we saw the market pull back in a corrective fashion overnight, only to push higher again today. We are now closing in on a key resistance level just overhead, which should help provide further guidance as to whether this market has enough momentum to make a direct push back toward the all-time highs, or whether we still need to see additional downside price action in the days and weeks ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Market Remains in No Man's Land

Today we saw the market turn sharply lower and then find support into the afternoon session. We are still trading well under the HOD but have yet to break micro support to the upside, which still leaves a number of possible paths on the table as we head into the close. I will note that I think the Nasdaq is painting a slightly cleaner picture at the moment, but we will need to see how things follow through in the days ahead before we really have a better idea as to the market's intentions as we move into March.I have cleaned up the ES chart a bit and, unfortunately, have to show three potential counts for the time being.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Holds Support, Pushes Higher, But Remains Beneath Overhead Resistance

Today we saw the market do exactly what it needed to do to keep both scenarios alive. Price came down into the key support levels outlined in yesterday’s update, held firm, and responded with a push higher. That said, while the bounce is constructive, it is still corrective in nature, and importantly, we remain under overhead resistance.As it stands, the rally off the recent low is only three waves. With that being said, because the red count is structured as a larger Ending Diagonal, it does not require a five-wave move to remain valid. That keeps the red count very much in play here. However, without five waves up, the structure of the next pullback becomes critical.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Pushes Lower but Continues to Hold Key Support

We saw the market move lower overnight, retrace that entire move in the early morning, and then roll over sharply once again. As of this writing, we are sitting just above key support, which keeps both the bullish and bearish counts alive for now. As we have been noting over the past several sessions, the price action in this region has been extremely sloppy, making it difficult to lean too heavily in either direction.Adding to that uncertainty is what I am counting as a somewhat incomplete topping structure for the potential wave 2. That lack of ideal structure reduces confidence in the bearish white count, though it does not invalidate it.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Bullish Scenario Needs a Stick Save

Today, we saw the market open higher and continue to grind higher into the afternoon session, only to be rejected right at the 61.8% retrace of the move down off the highs. We are currently testing a key micro pivot that, if broken, would exhaust any reasonably probable bullish scenario that I could see that would take this to new highs before breaking back under yesterday’s low. So, as of the time of this writing, we are at a very key inflection/pivot level, which, if broken, will clearly give the edge to the bearish path.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Special Quick Post Market Close Update

The market made a lower low into the close, which opens the door for a potential five-wave move to the downside per the yellow count. While we still need confirmation—specifically a corrective retrace higher followed by a break of the low, the setup now allows for the possibility of a substantial move lower in wave (iii) of the larger wave C.With that in mind, the structure of the next retracement higher will be very important to monitor in the days ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Follows Through on Downside Setup but Continues to Hold Larger-Degree Support

Today the market followed through on the downside setup we outlined yesterday. However, we are still holding the larger-degree retracement support zone. In addition, as of this writing, the decline from the 2/11 high still counts best as three waves. That keeps the white count alive, which would allow for another push to new all-time highs.If this move down develops into a full five-wave structure off the 2/11 high, it would open the door to a larger-degree top being in place per the yellow wave B.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Moves Lower After Stalling at Key Resistance

Today the market opened higher and reached the upper end of the key retracement zone from the decline off the February 2nd high. However, that level was quickly rejected, and we saw a sharp move lower that can be counted as a five-wave impulsive decline.Since today's low of the day was struck earlier this morning, the price has bounced higher, but that move so far counts best as being corrective in nature. That suggests the market likely has more work to do to the downside before we can begin looking for even a local bottom.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Quick Pre-Weekend Update

We are approaching the lower end of the Ending Diagonal reversal target zone at 6961–7028 and are now up more than 2.5% off the overnight low. As we move into this key target and resistance area, it would be reasonable to expect at least a local top to form.Although ES did break the 6767 level, that break occurred outside of regular market hours when volume was low, and the cash SPX did not break the corresponding low. While not ideal, this does still allow the white wave 2 bottoming scenario to remain valid.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Breaks Initial Support, Opening the Door for a Larger Top

Today the market continued to push lower, breaking down below the first key support/pivot level that had been holding the bullish case for new all-time highs. With that said, the structure of the decline from the 7026 high is very overlapping and lacks an impulsive wave structure, which is more characteristic of corrective price action.Importantly, there is still one key price level just below current levels that could hold and keep the bullish path to new highs intact.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Finds Support After A Sharp Move Lower, but We Are Still Not Out of the Woods

Today we saw the market move sharply lower, breaking yesterday’s low, but it managed to find support and keep the bullish path in play for the time being. While today’s move up off the afternoon low is a good start for the bullish count, we still have a bit more work to do before we can confirm that a bottom is in place and that we are indeed ready to push to new highs. Furthermore, as I noted previously, because we are likely trading within an Ending Diagonal off the December lows, even if we do push higher, the path to those highs is likely going to involve some twists and turns, much like what we saw today.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Sees A Deep Retrace But Catches The Lower End Of Support

Today we saw the market move sharply lower, but was able to find support at the lower end of the key retracement level before we headed into the final hour of trading. If we can manage to hold today's LOD overnight and into tomorrow, then the door will remain open for this to push higher in a wave iii of larger waec (c). We still will need to push through the micro pivot, which sits just overhead, to give us initial confirmation that we have put a bottom in place, but the reversal right at key support is certainly a good start.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Rebounds Higher but Still Trading Under Key Pivots

Today we saw the market move sharply higher, retracing much of last week’s pullback. However, we are still trading below the key pivot level that must break to confirm that we are ready to push to new highs. As we move into the close, the market is sitting near the middle of this pivot zone, and if we can break above it over the next couple of sessions, we should indeed be on our way to new highs.That said, I want to note that the structure of the move up off the December lows remains very overlapping and somewhat sloppy, which continues to suggest that we may be working within an Ending Diagonal.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Breaks Upper Support but Holds Lower Support

Today, the market broke lower, moving beneath the upper micro support that I outlined yesterday. With that break, focus now shifts to the larger support zone below, which has held thus far. From here, we will need to closely monitor the structure to the upside to determine whether the market can develop a full five-wave move higher, followed by a break of overhead resistance. That type of action would provide an indication that the market is ready to put in a bottom and push to new highs in the weeks and months ahead. Alternatively, failure to do so would suggest the market has other intentions and may be setting up for a deeper move lower.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Is Still Holding Support, But the Small Caps Stil May Be Telling a Different Story

Today, we saw the market open higher, only to pull back into the key micro support zone that I laid out yesterday. While the bullish count I have been tracking on both the SPX and Nasdaq remains intact for the time being, the Russell 2000 chart still shows a potentially bearish resolution, at least in the short term. In fact, the bearish count on the Russell 2000 is actually a bit cleaner than the potentially bullish count I am watching on the SPX and Nasdaq. While I will continue to give the SPX the benefit of the doubt in resolving higher, the count on the Russell 2000 has me becoming even more cautious in this region.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Continues to Push Higher Toward the Smaller-Degree Target Zone

Today we saw the market push slightly higher and then consolidate for most of the afternoon. As we approach the close, we are still sitting over key micro support and continuing to follow our Fib Pinball path as expected so far. With that, today’s update is fairly straightforward: as long as we can remain over key micro support, the pressure will remain to the upside.Earlier today, we hit the 138.2% extension of the initial wave (i) up, as shown on the charts, which sits at the lower end of the target region for a standard wave (iii). From there, we saw a flat consolidation for much of the afternoon.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

You Think the Perfect Trading System Will Make You Money. You’re Wrong!

Most traders and investors believe exceptional performance comes from finding the perfect trading system, the one strategy that finally “figures out the market” and compounds capital with minimal effort. The assumption is that once the right system is found, consistency and profitability naturally follow. This belief is understandable, but it is also the primary reason so many market participants fail to achieve lasting results.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Pushing Higher, But Small Caps Are Flashing a Warning Signal

After moving lower overnight and hitting the c wave down I was looking for last week, we saw the SPX and Nasdaq push higher today, so far following the primary path higher. That said, the Russell 2000 is not looking nearly as strong today. In fact, I can make the case that we have five waves down off the highs into the overnight low, followed by only a very weak three-wave retrace higher so far.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Trades Higher, But The Count Remains The Same

Today the market traded higher, but from a wave count and analysis perpective there is very little change from yesterday's update. We still only have three waves up off the low with no confirmation of even a local top just yet. As I noted yesterday, even if we do continue higher, the most likely scenario would be in the form of a larger ending diagonal. That would imply a choppy and overlapping path toward new highs that will be difficult to track with a high degree of certainty.My focus will remain on the structure of the next pullback.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Finds Support But We Are Still Not Out Of The Woods

Today, the market pushed higher after finding support yesterday. While that is a constructive development, we are still not out of the woods. At this point, we only have three waves up off the low. Even if we do continue higher, the most likely scenario would be in the form of a larger ending diagonal. That would imply a choppy and overlapping path toward new highs that will be difficult to track with a high degree of certainty.From here, my focus is on the structure of the next pullback.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Testing Key Support

Today the market opened lower and continued to trend lower throughout the session. As we move into the close, price is trading near the lows of the day while testing a key support zone. How the market responds to this area should provide important clues regarding direction as we move through the rest of the week and beyond.Given how stretched the market has become over the past several months, there is certainly a risk that a larger-degree top may already be in place. That said, we still need to see a few key downside hurdles cleared before we can have confirmation that such a top has been struck.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

No Breakout for the Bulls Just Yet

Today the market pushed higher and tested the overhead pivot, which, if broken, would have provided a signal that the market was ready to move higher in the weeks ahead. However, as we moved into the close, the market began to break undera key micro support level. If we see a sustained break of this support level then it increases the likelihood that today’s advance was simply a wave b within a larger move to the downside.While further confirmation is still required with a full five-wave decline off the highs and a sustained break of support, the initial poke under micro support is the first indication that we are unlikely to see immediate upside follow-through.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Is Down, but Not Quite Out

Today’s decline has opened the door to the possibility that a larger top may finally be taking shape. That said, the market is still holding above a key support level, which keeps the more immediately bullish count intact for now. As long as this support holds, my base case remains that the market will resolve higher before we see a more significant top develop. However, a decisive break below support would increase the odds that a larger-degree top is indeed in place.As shown on the ES chart, current support resides in the 6951–6906 zone. I continue to view this as a critical area for maintaining the immediately bullish count, shown in blue on the charts.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Has the Market Put in a Local Top?

After several days of upside follow-through, we finally saw the market stall and push modestly lower this afternoon. That raises the immediate question: have we put in a local top, and if so, what does that mean for the bigger picture as we move further into the new year?As I’ve been discussing in the room, the first level I’m watching is 6974 on the ES. A sustained break below that level would be our early indication that a local top may be in place. Should that occur, we still have more meaningful support just beneath, coming in at the 6953–6899 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago
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