Recent Articles by Mike Golembesky

Market Continues To Push Higher, But We Are Still Not Out Of The Woods

Today, the market continued to push higher, and we can now reasonably count the move off the lows as a five-wave structure. This increases the probability that a bottom has been put in for wave (a), and that we are now progressing within a larger wave (b) to the upside. That said, we have not yet cleared a key resistance region on both the SPX and the Nasdaq, which keeps the path to another low very much in play. In addition, the Nasdaq still lacks a clean, completed structure to the downside, which adds another layer of caution and further supports the possibility that another lower low could still develop.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Missing Big Market Moves

In this service, we are constantly scanning a wide range of charts, seeking high-probability trade setups grounded in Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci Pinball. My primary focus remains on equity and volatility charts, while Mark surveys a much broader landscape through sector analysis. This division of labor has expanded our opportunity set, but it has not changed our standard.We take only the highest-probability setups.That discipline is the foundation of the outsized returns we’ve delivered over the past eight years. And it’s important to understand: those results were not achieved by constant activity. There have been extended periods where no high-probability setups were present.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 days ago

Is the Market Ready to Rip Higher?

Today, we saw the market push higher overnight and follow through into the afternoon session. This opens the door to the possibility that wave (a) has bottomed, potentially completing the Ending Diagonal we’ve been tracking over the past several weeks.If that Ending Diagonal is indeed complete, we should expect a continued, strong move higher, targeting the 6900–7029 region overhead.That said, there is still meaningful resistance above that must be cleared before we can confidently confirm a sustained move higher. Additionally, I have some concerns with the Nasdaq structure, as I cannot yet identify a completed Ending Diagonal into the recent lows.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 days ago

Final Push Lower?

Today we continued to push lower, breaking the March 8th low and inching us closer to completing the larger Ending Diagonal that we have been tracking to the downside for several weeks. While we did break the March 8th low, which technically fulfills the minimum requirements for a completed Ending Diagonal, the micro structure still looks incomplete to the downside. Furthermore, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 have yet to break that March 8th low, all of which is still suggestive that we have lower to go before an ultimate bottom is struck.Drilling down to the ES chart, I am counting us still in wave (iii) of 5 of the larger wave C of (A).

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

C Wave To The Downside Likely Underway

After retracing over the past several days, today we moved lower and are testing the lower end of the next key pivot/support zone, which would confirm that we are indeed in wave (iii) of C down as part of the larger Ending Diagonal that we have been tracking for the past several weeks.If we manage to break back under the 6672 level, that would further confirm that we are indeed in wave (iii) of C down as laid out per the white count on the ES chart. Further confirmation would come with a break back under the 6645 level, which represents the 100% extension of the initial move down off the highs.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Moving Into The Support Zone

Overnight, we saw the market move lower in what is, so far, corrective wave action, following the general path and structure to the downside into the lower support zone that I outlined in yesterday’s update. With that in mind, we now need to see how the market reacts in this region and, more importantly, what the next move to the upside looks like from a structural perspective. That will help provide further guidance as to whether we ultimately see another lower low per the purple count, or if this market finds a bottom in the yellow wave (b).As I noted yesterday, the 6689–6617 zone is an important support region, which we are now entering.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Taking a Breather

After several sessions of very high intraday volatility, the market is taking a bit of a breather today, currently down less than 1/2 of a percent at the time of this writing. We are still sitting over support but remain under the next key pivot/resistance level. A break of either of these levels should help provide further guidance as to whether the market still has another lower low to go to finish off this initial move down, or whether Monday’s low may already represent at least a local bottom.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Failed At Resistance, But The Pattern Remains Cloudy

Overnight, the market failed right at the key resistance level that would have needed to break to signal that we were heading directly higher per the yellow count. Today we saw additional downside follow-through; however, the move down off the high is counting better as a corrective wave pattern rather than an impulsive move.This wave structure still leaves several potential paths, and there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to which direction the market will ultimately break in the near term. I will note that the failure to move through resistance yesterday has made the potential for a direct move higher much less likely.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 weeks ago

Market Closing In On Key Resistance Level

After finding a bottom yesterday and moving higher into the close, we saw the market pull back in a corrective fashion overnight, only to push higher again today. We are now closing in on a key resistance level just overhead, which should help provide further guidance as to whether this market has enough momentum to make a direct push back toward the all-time highs, or whether we still need to see additional downside price action in the days and weeks ahead.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 weeks ago

Market Remains in No Man's Land

Today we saw the market turn sharply lower and then find support into the afternoon session. We are still trading well under the HOD but have yet to break micro support to the upside, which still leaves a number of possible paths on the table as we head into the close. I will note that I think the Nasdaq is painting a slightly cleaner picture at the moment, but we will need to see how things follow through in the days ahead before we really have a better idea as to the market's intentions as we move into March.I have cleaned up the ES chart a bit and, unfortunately, have to show three potential counts for the time being.