Recent Articles by Mike Golembesky

Market Still Grinding - Market Analysis for Jul 2nd, 2025

The market continued its grind higher today, working its way up toward the next key Fibonacci resistance level I’ve been tracking on the SPX chart. This level, which represents the 261.8% extension from the move off the April lows, comes in at 6283. If we see further upside follow-through, this will be the next critical area of interest in the days ahead.That said, the market remains extended across multiple degrees and is now showing negative divergence on the 60-minute MACD. While these are important cautionary signals, we still lack a clear breakdown in support or a definitive five-wave move to the downside, both of which would be required to confirm that a top is in place.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Market Grinding Its Way Higher

After finding support on Monday and pushing higher, we've continued to see the market grind its way toward new all-time highs. While this move has certainly exceeded initial expectations regarding the depth of the rally off the April lows, the internal structure of that rally still leaves the bigger-picture count unchanged.One complicating factor has been the growing divergence between the ES and SPX charts, particularly due to the number of significant overnight moves that never appeared on the cash SPX chart. As such, while the larger degree structure remains largely intact, the subdivision of this C wave off the April 17th low can be interpreted in a number of viable ways.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Down But Not Out

Today we saw the market move down off of the high that was struck yesterday but we are still trading over support so we do not have confirmation that we have put in a top just yet. Now with that being said the case could be made that we have a very small degree five wave move to the downside in place on both the ES and the RTY.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Moved to Yellow

After failing to see any meaningful downside follow-through on the smaller potential Ending Diagonal (ED) we had been tracking off the May 30th low, the market reversed sharply higher today, pushing to new highs. With this move, I am now viewing the action as part of a larger ED structure that began off the May 23rd low at 5806.If this count is correct, we should eventually see a sharp reversal back toward that 5806 region. That said, we do not yet have confirmation of a top in place. For initial confirmation, we would need to see a break back below the 6108 level, followed by a break under 6000.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Moving Toward Yellow?

After moving lower overnight, we saw a strong rebound during the morning session, with the market now trading firmly in the green as we head into the close. This recovery, and more importantly, the lack of a sharp breakdown, has increased the odds that we may indeed be tracking the yellow count I’ve been outlining over the past several sessions.While we still don’t have full confirmation, and won’t until we see the structure of the next move lower, the fact that the market failed to produce the kind of sharp reversal typically associated with an Ending Diagonal (ED) top is noteworthy.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Trying to Make a Decision

The price action over the past several days has been quite sloppy, and as of the time of this writing, it has yet to make a decision as to whether we are going to head directly lower toward our ultimate Ending Diagonal target at the 5902 level, or if we are going to see yet another higher high before finding a significant top. These paths have been outlined over the past several days and have, for the most part, remained unchanged. Until we see a break of support below or resistance overhead, we will not have confirmation as to which path the market will ultimately take in the near term.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Divergence Forming, But Still Holding Over Support... for Now

Since the low struck on May 23rd, the market has been grinding its way higher in a very choppy and overlapping fashion. This type of price action is characteristic of an Ending Diagonal (ED), and it suggests that we may be completing wave (c) of a structure that began back in April.Adding to this setup, we’re starting to see negative divergence forming on the 60-minute MACD, a common feature when an ED pattern is nearing completion. That said, we’re still trading above key support, so while all the ingredients for a reversal are in place, we do not yet have even initial confirmation that a top is in.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Sees A Day Of Consolidation

Today, the market consolidated in a tight range near yesterday’s highs. This type of price action often precedes further upside, but confirmation requires a decisive break above the 6007 level. Until that happens, the market remains at an inflection point. On a broader scale, not much has changed since the weekend update. The primary view is that we are in a topping region, likely either in a topping region for the blue wave a or red wave b. The potential for that larger wave b top to develop, as outlined in the red count, will depend on the structure of the next meaningful pullback.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Moves Up Into Resistance

We saw the market continue to push higher today, moving into the key retrace resistance zone for the potential initiation move down that began last week. As long as price holds beneath this zone, my primary expectation remains for a downside resolution in the coming days. A sustained move through resistance, however, would open the door to one more push to a higher high before any significant top is in place.Zooming in on the ES chart, I continue to favor counting five waves down into last week's low. The bounce off that low has thus far only developed as a three-wave structure, and we remain below the 5937–5967 resistance zone.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Testing Key Resistance

We opened lower today, only to see a retrace higher into the afternoon session. At this point, the move off Monday’s high into this morning’s low still counts best as a three-wave decline, but the market remains capped beneath a key resistance level. As such, we cannot yet rule out the potential for this structure to develop into a full five-wave decline, opening the door to a more significant top having been struck.As I’ve been noting in prior updates, the resolution of this initial structure off the high is critical.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Moves Lower and Tests Key Support

Today, the market finally posted a local top and a meaningful pullback, with a decline of about 1.5% heading into the close. This move broke below the initial support level and is now approaching the key lower support zone that I’ve highlighted in recent days.On the ES chart, today’s decline reached the upper end of this lower support near 5847. A further move down through the 5779–5778 level would be the first real signal that a larger degree top may be in place. Until that lower level is breached, we can’t confirm a broader trend reversal.While I remain cautious, a break of that support is needed to shift the outlook more bearishly.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Holding Support as Downside Structure Remains Corrective

The market spent most of today’s session moving sideways within a very tight range, with a modest dip lower into the final hours. Despite that late-day weakness, the price is still holding above both yesterday’s low and the broader support levels below.Importantly, the move down off the recent highs continues to present as a three-wave structure. As such, we still lack confirmation of even a local top. Until we either break key support zones or see a clear five-wave move to the downside, the potential remains for the market to push higher before any meaningful top is struck.As highlighted on the ES chart, micro support comes in at the 5930–5915 zone, representing the 61.8%–76.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Still Grinding Higher

Today, the market opened lower but quickly pushed to new highs, offering no clear sign of a top just yet. As such, we continue to monitor the Fibonacci resistance levels above and key support levels below for any indication of a reversal. Patience remains crucial as we wait for the market to reveal whether it's ready to form at least a local top or continue its upward grind.Overnight, the market briefly broke through the upper support level but held the key support zone between 5854 and 5776, as shown on the ES chart. As long as we stay above this zone, there's still potential for further upside.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Holds Support and Pushes to New Highs

Overnight, the market broke the upper support level that I had discussed yesterday, but managed to hold the smaller degree support level just below and continued to push higher today. So from an analysis perspective, not too much has changed today, as the count still remains relatively full and quite extended from a Fibonacci perspective. While I do still remain cautious in this region, until we see an actual break of support and/or a clear five-wave move to the downside, we simply do not have any confirmation that even a local top has been struck just yet.Zooming into the ES chart, support has now been moved down to the 5842–5776 zone.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Still Hovering Near Recent Highs – Patience Remains Key

The market continued to consolidate near the highs established yesterday, with price action still holding well above even our uppermost support levels on the ES chart. As such, from a smaller-degree perspective, we do not yet have any confirmed signal that a local top has been struck.From a larger-degree standpoint, however, the wave count is becoming increasingly stretched in this region and we are also quite extended from a Fibonacci perspective. While confirmation of a top will require a sustained break of key support, this extended pattern keeps me cautious in this region. Zooming into the ES chart, I’m currently showing upper support in the 5902–5876 zone.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

The US Dollar Is Still Bouncing But Remains Well Under Resistance

This week the DXY continued to retrace higher, and while we do still have enough waves in place to consider all of the wave (c) completed off of the January highs this would still look better with a push a bit lower before a larger bottom is found.