Recent Articles by Mike Golembesky

Market Finds A Local Bottom, But Remains Under Resistance For Now

After last week’s sharp decline, today we saw the market push higher. However, the structure of this bounce off the recent lows remains somewhat unclear. For now, I’m placing greater emphasis on key retracement resistance levels to guide the near-term outlook.As long as we remain below those key retrace zones, my primary expectation is still for lower levels to unfold in the days and weeks ahead. That said, a sustained move back above these retracement levels would prevent me from fully ruling out the potential for another higher high, as we have yet to decisively break key support levels to the downside, the confirmation needed to firmly establish that a top is in place.

by Mike Golembesky - 18 hours ago

Pattern Fills Out to the Upside, but Market Remains Over Support… For Now

Heading into yesterday’s close, the downside action appeared corrective in nature, and the structure to the upside seemed to be missing a wave. That missing wave was filled in overnight, as we saw a push higher that potentially completes the pattern. Since then, we've pulled back from the overnight high and are currently trading slightly in the red, with the decline off the high taking the form of a three-wave move, though sharper in character than what we saw yesterday.So, while we remain over support for now, I’m approaching the long side with continued caution. We still lack a clear five-wave structure to the downside, and support has yet to break.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Fed Moves the Market… Nowhere

Heading into today, market participants were sitting tight, bracing for what they hoped would be a market-moving announcement from the Fed. That announcement came and went, and the market barely flinched. The FOMC meeting turned out to be a non-event, leaving us right where we were yesterday: hovering over support in what still counts best as a corrective three-wave decline off the high, and with a Russell 2000 chart that would still look far more complete with another push higher.So, from a structural standpoint, nothing has changed. The parameters I outlined in yesterday’s update remain fully intact.

by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Market Moving Sideways But Still Well Above Support

The market saw a small move to the downside today, but we're still holding well above all of our key support levels. With that in mind, there’s not much to update on the SPX/ES charts. The support levels remain unchanged from the past several sessions, and as long as those zones remain intact, we simply do not have a signal that a top has been struck.Additionally, the structure on the Russell 2000 (RTY) doesn’t look complete just yet. It would still benefit from another push higher to better align with a typical Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern before any significant top is in place.

by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Rinse and Repeat...

Once again, the market continues to grind to new highs, inching ever so slowly toward the next key fib level at 6418 on the SPX. With this kind of slow, grinding price action, there’s not a whole lot new to add from a wave count perspective; nothing has materially changed.As we've been noting, there’s still no indication that a top has been struck, no break of immediate support, and certainly nothing impulsive to the downside. As long as those key support levels continue to hold, the door remains open for further upside.The levels we've been tracking remain unchanged.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Continues to Push Higher

The market extended its advance to fresh highs again today, following a brief retrace earlier in the week. With this latest move, we're now approaching the next larger-degree Fibonacci target on the 60-minute SPX chart, which comes in at 6418.From a wave count perspective, not much has changed. As we’ve reiterated before, there’s still no indication that a top has been struck, not even a break of the most immediate support levels. As long as those supports remain intact, we still can see this market continue to extend higher. The key levels I’ve outlined in recent updates remain unchanged. On the ES, I’m still watching the 6245 region as the first potential signal of a local top.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Flat and Still Holding Support

Today, the market opened lower, only to push higher in the afternoon session. We are currently trading flat relative to yesterday's close and still holding above support. There really isn’t much to add to yesterday’s update, as we still do not have confirmation that even a local top has been struck.I will note that the negative divergence developing on the SPX 60-minute MACD has now confirmed, with that indicator rolling over. However, until we see confirmation through a break of support, I cannot say with a high degree of confidence that a top is in.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Divergences Building - Market Analysis for Jul 21st, 2025

Today, we saw the market push higher toward the 261.8% extension I outlined last week, only to reverse lower during the final hour of trading. Despite that pullback, price remains well above even the uppermost support level on the ES chart. From both a price and structural standpoint, we still do not have confirmation that even a local top has been struck in ES.However, the Russell 2000 is telling a slightly different story. After printing a clean initial five-wave decline last week, RUT retraced higher in a corrective fashion and is now turning lower again.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Pushes to New Highs – Eyes on the Upper Fib

Today, we saw the market once again push to new highs after several failed attempts to break support. With that move, price is now making another attempt at the upper Fibonacci target, which still comes in at the 6384 level. Whether we can actually reach that level remains to be seen—but with this morning's new high, that target is now in play.From a wave count perspective, nothing of significance has changed. We remain in a very full and extended structure, but we still need to see a break of support below to signal that a top may have been struck. That key support zone remains unchanged and continues to come in at the 6185–6135 region on the ES.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Right Back Where We Started

After opening slightly higher, the market dropped sharply this morning, only to recover that entire move and more as we head into the close. While price did dip below the very upper edge of support noted in yesterday’s update, we remain well above the key micro support zone at 6185–6135. So once again, until that zone breaks, we do not have confirmation that a top has been struck.That said, we continue to track a very full and extended wave count, so I remain cautious on further upside in this region.From a very micro perspective, we may have a potential initiation move in place. As long as price holds beneath the 6331 level, there’s room for further downside.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

SPX Makes a New High but Fades Quickly

This morning, both the SPX and NDX pushed to new highs, only to fade lower rather quickly. That new high provides the potential for a more fully extended count, continuing to stretch this market to increasingly extreme levels. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 has already started to break down, dropping sharply below the lower trend channel I’ve been monitoring. That break offers an early indication that at least a local top may be in place.That said, both the SPX and NDX remain above key upper support, and until those levels are broken, we cannot confirm that a top has been struck.From a wave structure and support perspective, not much has changed.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Still Holding Support, for Now

We saw ES move lower on Friday and again during Sunday night’s session, only to recover much of that decline into the afternoon. As of now, we’re trading roughly flat compared to Friday’s close, though still below the prior high. From a wave count perspective, not much has changed since last week, as key support levels remain intact. So with that, I’ll reiterate much of what was noted previously.As we've been tracking, the count in this region is quite full and extended across multiple timeframes. That said, without a clear break of support or a clean five-wave decline, we simply don’t yet have confirmation that a top is in place.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

How Much Gas Is Left in the Tank?

Today, we saw the SPX push to new highs while the NDX continued to lag. The RUT also managed to notch a new local high, though it remains well below its prior all-time high. With this continued grind higher, the real question remains: how much more upside can this market squeeze out before we see any meaningful pullback?As we've highlighted previously, the count in this region is quite full and increasingly extended across multiple timeframes. That said, until we see a confirmed break of support and/or a clear five-wave move to the downside, we simply do not have confirmation of a top just yet.What does have my attention here is the structure unfolding in the RUT.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Action Still Sloppy On The Smaller Timeframes

Today we saw the market move higher in the early morning session only to drop lower as we moved into the afternoon. We have currently retraced much of that afternoon drop but are still holding under the HOD as we move into the close. Given the structure of the move up off of the 7/7 low I am learning for this to see at least a shorter timeframe downside resolution but we still would need to see a break of support below to suggest a larger degree top may be in place.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Slow Day As Market Grinds Sideways

Today we saw very slow market conditions as the market moved mostly sideways and is closing out the day very much where it started out. With that, I have very little to add to yesterday's analysis as we still are sitting over support but under the previous high. As noted yesterday, I’m still focused on the key price zones below; should those break, we would begin to see the initial signs that a top may be in place. Until and unless that occurs, the potential remains for the market to push higher, despite how extended the current structure is..I continue to monitor the 5929–5793 support zone closely, along with the structure of any forthcoming pullback.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Still Holding Support

While we did see some downside action today, price has thus far held even the uppermost support levels, offering no confirmation that a local top has been struck. Additionally, all major indexes continue to show only three waves down off the recent highs, still going us no signal of a top just ut. As such, the analysis and support levels outlined in last week’s update remain largely unchanged. I’m still focused on the key price zones below, should those break, we would begin to see the initial signs that a top may be in place. Until and unless that occurs, the potential remains for the market to push higher, despite how extended the current structure is..

by Mike Golembesky - 4 weeks ago

Market Still Grinding - Market Analysis for Jul 2nd, 2025

The market continued its grind higher today, working its way up toward the next key Fibonacci resistance level I’ve been tracking on the SPX chart. This level, which represents the 261.8% extension from the move off the April lows, comes in at 6283. If we see further upside follow-through, this will be the next critical area of interest in the days ahead.That said, the market remains extended across multiple degrees and is now showing negative divergence on the 60-minute MACD. While these are important cautionary signals, we still lack a clear breakdown in support or a definitive five-wave move to the downside, both of which would be required to confirm that a top is in place.