Recent Articles by Mike Golembesky

Market Fighting It Out

Today’s session saw the market drift lower into the FOMC, testing the upper end of support on the ES chart. So far, that zone has held as we head into the final hour of trading. As we’ve been noting, the structure would look cleaner with another push higher to complete wave v on both the ES and NQ. As long as support continues to hold, that case remains on the table.However, should ES break below support, it would serve as an early signal that this move off of the Sept 2nd low has already topped, coming up short of the ideal pattern. While intraday swings have been notable, our broader outlook remains unchanged from recent updates.
by Mike Golembesky - 15 hours ago

Market Testing Micro Support

The market opened higher today but drifted lower into the afternoon session. While we did register a higher high, which could represent a potentially complete pattern, price action remains firmly above even the uppermost support levels. As such, we do not yet have a signal of a local top.As long as support holds, further direct upside extensions remain in play. However, a break of support would provide an early indication that a local top may be in place. To confirm a more meaningful top, lower support levels would still need to be taken out. At this point, the market remains well above those key levels.On the ES chart, upper micro support currently comes in at the 6519 level.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Testing Micro Resistance

he market opened flat today, with a minor corrective pullback in the morning followed by a steady recovery into the afternoon session. Prices are now trading near the highs of the day and pressing into the lower end of the micro retrace resistance zone from last week’s decline.A sustained push through this region would provide the first confirmation that the market is ready to extend higher toward new highs. On the other hand, if resistance holds and we turn lower in a clear five-wave structure, that would leave the door open for at least a local top to be in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

The Market Hasn’t Made a Decision Yet

Today’s session was largely uneventful, with the market trading flat and showing little follow-through. As such, not much has changed from the prior analysis. From a structural standpoint, the pattern would look cleaner if we were to see another push to a higher high to further develop a potential Ending Diagonal off the 9/2 low. However, today’s lethargic action offered no clear signal that we’re ready to accelerate higher just yet.At the same time, the case could be made that the pattern is already complete at current levels. With that in mind, I’ll be watching Friday’s low closely as an important downside pivot.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Testing the Upper End of Micro Resistance

After last week’s pullback into Monday's session, the market has pushed higher over the past two sessions and is now pressing into the upper end of the standard retrace zone from the decline off the recent high. If the market can respect this upper Fibonacci retrace level, the door remains open for another leg lower, potentially in a wave c. However, a sustained break above this level would increase the likelihood of seeing another higher high before any meaningful top is found.From a bigger-picture perspective, not much has changed from what we’ve outlined in prior updates and can be seen on the 60-minute chart. On the smaller time frames, the ES is now approaching the 88.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Following Through On Upside Potential

Today the market continued to grind higher, filling out what has been an incomplete pattern to the upside. The move remains quite sloppy, which continues to suggest that we are likely dealing with an Ending Diagonal to finish off this rally. As is often the case with Ending Diagonals, the structure is less reliable and more difficult to track with precision compared to a clean impulsive wave pattern. With that in mind, we’ll continue to focus on the key Fibonacci levels overhead as the next resistance/target zone, while waiting for a clear break of support to signal that a top may be in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Is A Bit Of A Mess

The market has been relatively flat over the past several days, not giving us much movement to work with. Furthermore, the movement that we have seen has been quite sloppy and corrective in nature in both directions. This makes it difficult to have a high degree of certainty as to which direction this will move in the near term. Additionally, there are several viable paths that we have to be on the lookout for as we move into the end of the week. Avi did an excellent job of laying out these potentials on the smaller timeframes, so I am going to use this write-up as a baseline for this update with some additional color commentary.
by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Holds Support – Higher Levels Still in Play

The market opened lower today but quickly found support near the 100% extension of the initial move down off the highs and pushed higher into the close. This price action continues to suggest that the decline off the high is corrective in nature, keeping the door open to higher levels as we still remain above even the upper support zones. While I can’t completely rule out another dip to further flesh out a fourth wave down from the highs, as long as support holds, the pattern continues to look better with another push higher.On the ES, I’m watching the 6453–6420 zone as upper support for micro wave iv.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Continues to Grind Higher

The market opened higher today, pulled back early in the session, and then pushed higher into the close. We have yet to break even the upper-most support levels, and both ES and SPX still present what does look like incomplete patterns to the upside on the micro-degree. While a short-term pullback is certainly possible in the days ahead, as long as we remain above key support, we do not yet have a signal that any significant top has been struck. In fact, the structure would look more complete with at least another fourth and fifth wave to finish off the move to the upside.On the ES, I’m currently watching the 6453 level as upper support.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

B Wave Held Where It Needed To

Today, we saw the market continue its move higher into b-wave territory, only to turn down right at key resistance and push lower into the afternoon session. As it stands, we now have what appears to be a fairly clean three-wave move up off last week’s low, giving us an early indication that a top may have been struck in this b-wave.That said, we still need further confirmation. Specifically, we want to see a break of the key support levels I outlined yesterday to strengthen the case that wave b has indeed completed.From here, the next steps for confirmation are a break of the 6283 level, followed by a move below last week’s low at 6237.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Not Much Has Changed – Still Trading Within the b-Wave Territory

There’s not a whole lot to add in today’s update, as the market continues to chop within b-wave retracement territory, holding above micro support, but still trading below micro resistance.At this stage, the pattern at the smaller degree remains unclear, offering little in the way of reliable guidance from a structural standpoint. Until we see a more defined setup, we’re essentially stuck in a holding pattern.That said, as long as price remains below resistance, I’m still leaning toward a downside resolution on the smaller-degree timeframes. Once (or if) we get that move, we’ll need to carefully assess how price reacts as we approach the larger support levels outlined below.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Still In B Wave Territory

The market took a bit of a breather and didn't see too much movement after yesterday's retracement higher. So with that, there really is not too much change from yesterday's update. There are a few new micro price support levels that I am watching on the ES, but other than that, the analysis is for the most part unchanged from yesterday. As I noted yesterday, I’m placing greater emphasis on key retracement resistance levels to guide the near-term outlook. As long as we remain below those key retrace zones, my primary expectation is still for lower levels to unfold in the days and weeks ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Finds A Local Bottom, But Remains Under Resistance For Now

After last week’s sharp decline, today we saw the market push higher. However, the structure of this bounce off the recent lows remains somewhat unclear. For now, I’m placing greater emphasis on key retracement resistance levels to guide the near-term outlook.As long as we remain below those key retrace zones, my primary expectation is still for lower levels to unfold in the days and weeks ahead. That said, a sustained move back above these retracement levels would prevent me from fully ruling out the potential for another higher high, as we have yet to decisively break key support levels to the downside, the confirmation needed to firmly establish that a top is in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Pattern Fills Out to the Upside, but Market Remains Over Support… For Now

Heading into yesterday’s close, the downside action appeared corrective in nature, and the structure to the upside seemed to be missing a wave. That missing wave was filled in overnight, as we saw a push higher that potentially completes the pattern. Since then, we've pulled back from the overnight high and are currently trading slightly in the red, with the decline off the high taking the form of a three-wave move, though sharper in character than what we saw yesterday.So, while we remain over support for now, I’m approaching the long side with continued caution. We still lack a clear five-wave structure to the downside, and support has yet to break.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Fed Moves the Market… Nowhere

Heading into today, market participants were sitting tight, bracing for what they hoped would be a market-moving announcement from the Fed. That announcement came and went, and the market barely flinched. The FOMC meeting turned out to be a non-event, leaving us right where we were yesterday: hovering over support in what still counts best as a corrective three-wave decline off the high, and with a Russell 2000 chart that would still look far more complete with another push higher.So, from a structural standpoint, nothing has changed. The parameters I outlined in yesterday’s update remain fully intact.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Moving Sideways But Still Well Above Support

The market saw a small move to the downside today, but we're still holding well above all of our key support levels. With that in mind, there’s not much to update on the SPX/ES charts. The support levels remain unchanged from the past several sessions, and as long as those zones remain intact, we simply do not have a signal that a top has been struck.Additionally, the structure on the Russell 2000 (RTY) doesn’t look complete just yet. It would still benefit from another push higher to better align with a typical Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern before any significant top is in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Rinse and Repeat...

Once again, the market continues to grind to new highs, inching ever so slowly toward the next key fib level at 6418 on the SPX. With this kind of slow, grinding price action, there’s not a whole lot new to add from a wave count perspective; nothing has materially changed.As we've been noting, there’s still no indication that a top has been struck, no break of immediate support, and certainly nothing impulsive to the downside. As long as those key support levels continue to hold, the door remains open for further upside.The levels we've been tracking remain unchanged.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Continues to Push Higher

The market extended its advance to fresh highs again today, following a brief retrace earlier in the week. With this latest move, we're now approaching the next larger-degree Fibonacci target on the 60-minute SPX chart, which comes in at 6418.From a wave count perspective, not much has changed. As we’ve reiterated before, there’s still no indication that a top has been struck, not even a break of the most immediate support levels. As long as those supports remain intact, we still can see this market continue to extend higher. The key levels I’ve outlined in recent updates remain unchanged. On the ES, I’m still watching the 6245 region as the first potential signal of a local top.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Flat and Still Holding Support

Today, the market opened lower, only to push higher in the afternoon session. We are currently trading flat relative to yesterday's close and still holding above support. There really isn’t much to add to yesterday’s update, as we still do not have confirmation that even a local top has been struck.I will note that the negative divergence developing on the SPX 60-minute MACD has now confirmed, with that indicator rolling over. However, until we see confirmation through a break of support, I cannot say with a high degree of confidence that a top is in.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Divergences Building - Market Analysis for Jul 21st, 2025

Today, we saw the market push higher toward the 261.8% extension I outlined last week, only to reverse lower during the final hour of trading. Despite that pullback, price remains well above even the uppermost support level on the ES chart. From both a price and structural standpoint, we still do not have confirmation that even a local top has been struck in ES.However, the Russell 2000 is telling a slightly different story. After printing a clean initial five-wave decline last week, RUT retraced higher in a corrective fashion and is now turning lower again.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Pushes to New Highs – Eyes on the Upper Fib

Today, we saw the market once again push to new highs after several failed attempts to break support. With that move, price is now making another attempt at the upper Fibonacci target, which still comes in at the 6384 level. Whether we can actually reach that level remains to be seen—but with this morning's new high, that target is now in play.From a wave count perspective, nothing of significance has changed. We remain in a very full and extended structure, but we still need to see a break of support below to signal that a top may have been struck. That key support zone remains unchanged and continues to come in at the 6185–6135 region on the ES.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago

Right Back Where We Started

After opening slightly higher, the market dropped sharply this morning, only to recover that entire move and more as we head into the close. While price did dip below the very upper edge of support noted in yesterday’s update, we remain well above the key micro support zone at 6185–6135. So once again, until that zone breaks, we do not have confirmation that a top has been struck.That said, we continue to track a very full and extended wave count, so I remain cautious on further upside in this region.From a very micro perspective, we may have a potential initiation move in place. As long as price holds beneath the 6331 level, there’s room for further downside.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago

SPX Makes a New High but Fades Quickly

This morning, both the SPX and NDX pushed to new highs, only to fade lower rather quickly. That new high provides the potential for a more fully extended count, continuing to stretch this market to increasingly extreme levels. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 has already started to break down, dropping sharply below the lower trend channel I’ve been monitoring. That break offers an early indication that at least a local top may be in place.That said, both the SPX and NDX remain above key upper support, and until those levels are broken, we cannot confirm that a top has been struck.From a wave structure and support perspective, not much has changed.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago

Market Still Holding Support, for Now

We saw ES move lower on Friday and again during Sunday night’s session, only to recover much of that decline into the afternoon. As of now, we’re trading roughly flat compared to Friday’s close, though still below the prior high. From a wave count perspective, not much has changed since last week, as key support levels remain intact. So with that, I’ll reiterate much of what was noted previously.As we've been tracking, the count in this region is quite full and extended across multiple timeframes. That said, without a clear break of support or a clean five-wave decline, we simply don’t yet have confirmation that a top is in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago

How Much Gas Is Left in the Tank?

Today, we saw the SPX push to new highs while the NDX continued to lag. The RUT also managed to notch a new local high, though it remains well below its prior all-time high. With this continued grind higher, the real question remains: how much more upside can this market squeeze out before we see any meaningful pullback?As we've highlighted previously, the count in this region is quite full and increasingly extended across multiple timeframes. That said, until we see a confirmed break of support and/or a clear five-wave move to the downside, we simply do not have confirmation of a top just yet.What does have my attention here is the structure unfolding in the RUT.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago
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