Recent Articles by Mike Golembesky

Market at Key Inflection Point, but Pressure Remains Down

This article will be available to the public in about 2 days. To read it now, sign up for a free trial. Current members, simply log in.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 hour ago

The Market Can Remain Sideways Longer Than You Can Remain Sane

Overnight, we tested the high that was struck on 7/10, only to be followed by a sloppy move lower. We are still over the key support zone I have been laying out over the past several days, and yet under key overhead resistance. So with that, the market continues to move sideways on what is still very sloppy and unreliable action, leaving us yet again in the same spot from an analysis perspective and with the parameters still unchanged. As shown on the ES chart, I still have support sitting in the 7548-7485 zone.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Market Going Nowhere Slowly

Once again, the market traded below the previous high and over support, leaving us in limbo once again. With that, I still have very little to add to the previous analysis and parameters, so once again, I will reiterate what I noted in yesterday's update. There is really very little change to the parameters I laid out yesterday, so I am simply going to reiterate what I noted then.As shown on the ES chart, I have support sitting in the 7548-7485 zone. If we hold that zone and push back over the 7633 level, we are more likely following the yellow count, at which point the initial overhead target would come in at the 7800-7920 zone.

by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Market Leaves Us Hanging for Another Day

After moving lower yesterday, today we saw the market move back higher. However, after what looked like a strong open, it faded back down quite quickly. We have since been grinding higher through the afternoon session; however, the structure of that move higher is very sloppy and not typically what we see when the market is ready to make a sustained break higher. In the end, we are left in a very similar position to where we were yesterday, still trading above support and below the previous high. Until we see a break below support or above those highs, we remain stuck trading between the lines and in a bit of no-man's-land.

by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Market Still Trading Between the Lines

Today the market moved lower, which is keeping both counts in play as we head into the final hour of trading. We are currently sitting just over the 100% extension of the initial move down off the high and the larger support zone below. If we manage to hold over that zone and push back over the 7633 level, then we are likely following the bullish yellow count, whereas a break of support below would give us initial confirmation that we have topped in the white wave (b). For now, we simply have to wait and see what the market decides, which we will likely have an answer to within the next few trading sessions.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Testing Previous High

Today we saw the market move higher overnight and continue to grind higher throughout the session. We are currently testing the high that was struck on 7/6, which is making the most immediately bearish path less probable at the moment. With that being said, until we see a break of that level, I will keep this path on the board, as the overall action is still very sloppy and the alternate counts I am watching are still far from ideal from an Elliott Wave perspective. If we are going to see an imminent top, this would need to start turning down sooner rather than later and do so in five waves.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

The Pattern Is Suggestive That There Is Still Some Unfinished Business to the Downside

We saw the market gap lower overnight, only to whipsaw around most of the day. We are currently trading up significantly off of the lows. However, the move up off of the lows is so far only three waves in nature and is still sitting well inside of the retracement zone that could still swing this lower in the coming days. In fact, the pattern to the downside still looks incomplete in nature, which has me leaning toward lower levels still to come in the days ahead before we see any sort of breakout to new highs.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Everyone Hates Diagonals - Market Analysis for Jul 7th, 2026

Today the market opened flat but held under the key resistance zone that I had been watching over the past several days, keeping the wave 2 of the larger wave (c) down topping count in play. We began to move lower in the late morning session, but the move stalled out and developed a three-wave move down off of the highs. So while holding resistance is keeping the wave 2 count in play, the fact that we have a three-wave start is certainly less than ideal for the most immediately bearish path.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Closing In on Upper Resistance

Today the market continued its grind higher on what remains sloppy action as we approach the upper end of the resistance zone, still keeping the potential wave 2 alive. If we continue to push higher and break resistance, it will make it more likely that we are following the yellow count over the 7646 level before seeing even a local top.Overall, there really is not much change to the counts as they have been laid out over the past several days. With today's push back over last week's high, we have invalidated the potential 1-2 i-ii setup to the downside and are now closing in on the larger upper resistance zone at the 7614 level for the larger wave 2.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Tests Resistance and Holds For Now

Today we saw the market open lower only to push higher in the afternoon session, testing the 76.4% retrace level of the move down off of the 6/15 high. So far that level has held almost to the penny and turned down, but we still do not have any indication that we have put in any sort of top just yet. This leaves us pretty much where we were yesterday, and if this is going to push higher per the yellow count, we will need to see a break over resistance. If we are going to move lower, we will need to see a break of support below.Currently, the 76.4% retrace level comes in at the 7579 level just overhead.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

U.S.Dollar Consolidates After Breakout Week

After breaking out higher last week, we saw the DXY consoildate this week in what I am counting as part of a fourth wave.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

It's Déjà Vu All Over Again

Today the market moved higher overnight, only to drop sharply in the early morning session. Since then, we have been range-bound between the overnight high and the morning low. While the action was certainly volatile this morning, the overall count has actually not changed at all, and today's action has put us right back where we were at yesterday's close. I am still viewing the same three counts that I laid out yesterday as viable, and until we see a break of the support or resistance levels discussed yesterday, they will all remain in play.WHITE COUNTI am still watching this count; however, with today's action, I am viewing it as slightly less probable than the red count.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Pressure Remains Down as We Approach the Next Downside Pivot

After moving higher in the morning session, we saw the market move lower in the afternoon session and break the low that was struck yesterday. This is keeping the pressure down in the equity markets, and as long as we continue to move higher in a corrective fashion, this pressure should continue to build to the downside. With that being said, there are still two viable bearish paths that I am viewing as likely. How the market moves through the Fibonacci levels in the days ahead will help differentiate which path we are following if we are indeed heading lower.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market at First Key Inflection Point to the Downside

Today, the market moved sharply lower, opening the door for the larger wave (b) top to be in place at the 6/15 high. With that said, we still only have three waves down off that high so far and are currently sitting at several key Fibonacci support levels that will need to break to the downside to keep that path in play. If we are unable to break those levels and instead turn back higher, then it would open the door to a few different paths that could still ultimately take this market higher.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Continues To Push Lower, But Structure Is Far From Clean

Today we saw the market continue to push lower after moving lower yesterday as well. Unfortunately, the structure of the move to the downside is far from clear, and if we have indeed topped in all of wave (b), the initial move down has likely taken the form of a leading diagonal. While this can certainly qualify as an initial five-wave move to the downside, this structure is not the most reliable of patterns.The move up off today's low is, however, taking the form of three waves, which provides us with a bit of support for the idea that we still have further downside action ahead of us before making any new highs.