Recent Articles by Mike Golembesky

From Fear to Disbelief: Not the Time to Chase As Structure Will Dictate the Next Move

It’s safe to say that the vast majority of market participants were not positioned for, nor expecting, this type of upside extension of late. However, from our perspective here at EWT, this move was not unexpected but rather anticipated.
by Mike Golembesky - 5 days ago

Avoiding Recency Bias and F.O.M.O. (Fear of Missing Out)

In my last educational article, I discussed the transition from high- to low-volatility regimes and how difficult it can be to identify those shifts in real time. Along those same lines, I want to address another major challenge traders face: recency bias and the fear of missing out on new trades.This is one of the more difficult aspects of trading psychology; even experienced traders struggle with it, especially after a strong winning streak. To achieve long-term consistency, you must be careful not to let recent results influence your decision-making or allow FOMO to push you into lower-quality setups.This is, of course, easier said than done.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Transition From A High To Low Volatility Regime

One of the more important lessons I’ve learned over the years, often the hard way, is how quickly the market can transition from a high-volatility regime to a lower-volatility environment. These shifts are not always obvious in real time, but they have a meaningful impact on how we need to approach trading.When volatility contracts, our expectations must adjust with it. If we continue to anticipate the same magnitude and speed of moves that we saw during higher-volatility conditions, it can lead to frustration and, more importantly, losing trades. This is especially true in options, where elevated premiums may still be priced in even as the market begins to slow.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

When an ED comes to completion, this is what it looks like.

We have now confirmed a bottom in the ES and very likely have begun the ED (ending diagonal) reversal.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Is Setup To Push Higher But We Are Not Out Of The Woods Just Yet

After pulling back into support today, the market saw a push higher on what does count best as a micro five-wave move to the upside. We are currently testing the top of that micro five but have yet to break over that high. We still have some key overhead resistance levels that will need to be taken out to confirm that we have indeed bottomed, and until those levels are broken, there still is a risk of seeing lower levels before any significant bottom is found.The most important overhead resistance level remains at the 6684–6728 region.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Analysis for Apr 7th, 2026

SPY is going with 1/2 size April 14th 668 strike calls. May look to add if we get deeper retrace for the wave ii. Also, these may have enough time on them to work out even if we get the alternate yellow wave b that I am watching on the ES and if that occurs, I will recheck numbers.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Consolidates Under the Pivot All Day

Today we saw the market open slightly higher and consolidate in a very tight range all day, just under the key pivot that, once broken, would confirm we are indeed in wave c of the larger (b) up. As of right now, we still do not have confirmation that we have indeed begun that c wave up, and we still could see a deeper retrace before that move occurs. For now, we will remain in a bit of a wait-and-see approach as we continue to hold below the key pivot.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Market Continues To Push Higher, But We Are Still Not Out Of The Woods

Today, the market continued to push higher, and we can now reasonably count the move off the lows as a five-wave structure. This increases the probability that a bottom has been put in for wave (a), and that we are now progressing within a larger wave (b) to the upside. That said, we have not yet cleared a key resistance region on both the SPX and the Nasdaq, which keeps the path to another low very much in play. In addition, the Nasdaq still lacks a clean, completed structure to the downside, which adds another layer of caution and further supports the possibility that another lower low could still develop.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Missing Big Market Moves

In this service, we are constantly scanning a wide range of charts, seeking high-probability trade setups grounded in Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci Pinball. My primary focus remains on equity and volatility charts, while Mark surveys a much broader landscape through sector analysis. This division of labor has expanded our opportunity set, but it has not changed our standard.We take only the highest-probability setups.That discipline is the foundation of the outsized returns we’ve delivered over the past eight years. And it’s important to understand: those results were not achieved by constant activity. There have been extended periods where no high-probability setups were present.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Is the Market Ready to Rip Higher?

Today, we saw the market push higher overnight and follow through into the afternoon session. This opens the door to the possibility that wave (a) has bottomed, potentially completing the Ending Diagonal we’ve been tracking over the past several weeks.If that Ending Diagonal is indeed complete, we should expect a continued, strong move higher, targeting the 6900–7029 region overhead.That said, there is still meaningful resistance above that must be cleared before we can confidently confirm a sustained move higher. Additionally, I have some concerns with the Nasdaq structure, as I cannot yet identify a completed Ending Diagonal into the recent lows.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Final Push Lower?

Today we continued to push lower, breaking the March 8th low and inching us closer to completing the larger Ending Diagonal that we have been tracking to the downside for several weeks. While we did break the March 8th low, which technically fulfills the minimum requirements for a completed Ending Diagonal, the micro structure still looks incomplete to the downside. Furthermore, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 have yet to break that March 8th low, all of which is still suggestive that we have lower to go before an ultimate bottom is struck.Drilling down to the ES chart, I am counting us still in wave (iii) of 5 of the larger wave C of (A).
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

C Wave To The Downside Likely Underway

After retracing over the past several days, today we moved lower and are testing the lower end of the next key pivot/support zone, which would confirm that we are indeed in wave (iii) of C down as part of the larger Ending Diagonal that we have been tracking for the past several weeks.If we manage to break back under the 6672 level, that would further confirm that we are indeed in wave (iii) of C down as laid out per the white count on the ES chart. Further confirmation would come with a break back under the 6645 level, which represents the 100% extension of the initial move down off the highs.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Moving Into The Support Zone

Overnight, we saw the market move lower in what is, so far, corrective wave action, following the general path and structure to the downside into the lower support zone that I outlined in yesterday’s update. With that in mind, we now need to see how the market reacts in this region and, more importantly, what the next move to the upside looks like from a structural perspective. That will help provide further guidance as to whether we ultimately see another lower low per the purple count, or if this market finds a bottom in the yellow wave (b).As I noted yesterday, the 6689–6617 zone is an important support region, which we are now entering.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Taking a Breather

After several sessions of very high intraday volatility, the market is taking a bit of a breather today, currently down less than 1/2 of a percent at the time of this writing. We are still sitting over support but remain under the next key pivot/resistance level. A break of either of these levels should help provide further guidance as to whether the market still has another lower low to go to finish off this initial move down, or whether Monday’s low may already represent at least a local bottom.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Failed At Resistance, But The Pattern Remains Cloudy

Overnight, the market failed right at the key resistance level that would have needed to break to signal that we were heading directly higher per the yellow count. Today we saw additional downside follow-through; however, the move down off the high is counting better as a corrective wave pattern rather than an impulsive move.This wave structure still leaves several potential paths, and there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to which direction the market will ultimately break in the near term. I will note that the failure to move through resistance yesterday has made the potential for a direct move higher much less likely.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Closing In On Key Resistance Level

After finding a bottom yesterday and moving higher into the close, we saw the market pull back in a corrective fashion overnight, only to push higher again today. We are now closing in on a key resistance level just overhead, which should help provide further guidance as to whether this market has enough momentum to make a direct push back toward the all-time highs, or whether we still need to see additional downside price action in the days and weeks ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Remains in No Man's Land

Today we saw the market turn sharply lower and then find support into the afternoon session. We are still trading well under the HOD but have yet to break micro support to the upside, which still leaves a number of possible paths on the table as we head into the close. I will note that I think the Nasdaq is painting a slightly cleaner picture at the moment, but we will need to see how things follow through in the days ahead before we really have a better idea as to the market's intentions as we move into March.I have cleaned up the ES chart a bit and, unfortunately, have to show three potential counts for the time being.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Holds Support, Pushes Higher, But Remains Beneath Overhead Resistance

Today we saw the market do exactly what it needed to do to keep both scenarios alive. Price came down into the key support levels outlined in yesterday’s update, held firm, and responded with a push higher. That said, while the bounce is constructive, it is still corrective in nature, and importantly, we remain under overhead resistance.As it stands, the rally off the recent low is only three waves. With that being said, because the red count is structured as a larger Ending Diagonal, it does not require a five-wave move to remain valid. That keeps the red count very much in play here. However, without five waves up, the structure of the next pullback becomes critical.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Pushes Lower but Continues to Hold Key Support

We saw the market move lower overnight, retrace that entire move in the early morning, and then roll over sharply once again. As of this writing, we are sitting just above key support, which keeps both the bullish and bearish counts alive for now. As we have been noting over the past several sessions, the price action in this region has been extremely sloppy, making it difficult to lean too heavily in either direction.Adding to that uncertainty is what I am counting as a somewhat incomplete topping structure for the potential wave 2. That lack of ideal structure reduces confidence in the bearish white count, though it does not invalidate it.
by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Bullish Scenario Needs a Stick Save

Today, we saw the market open higher and continue to grind higher into the afternoon session, only to be rejected right at the 61.8% retrace of the move down off the highs. We are currently testing a key micro pivot that, if broken, would exhaust any reasonably probable bullish scenario that I could see that would take this to new highs before breaking back under yesterday’s low. So, as of the time of this writing, we are at a very key inflection/pivot level, which, if broken, will clearly give the edge to the bearish path.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago

Special Quick Post Market Close Update

The market made a lower low into the close, which opens the door for a potential five-wave move to the downside per the yellow count. While we still need confirmation—specifically a corrective retrace higher followed by a break of the low, the setup now allows for the possibility of a substantial move lower in wave (iii) of the larger wave C.With that in mind, the structure of the next retracement higher will be very important to monitor in the days ahead.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago

Market Follows Through on Downside Setup but Continues to Hold Larger-Degree Support

Today the market followed through on the downside setup we outlined yesterday. However, we are still holding the larger-degree retracement support zone. In addition, as of this writing, the decline from the 2/11 high still counts best as three waves. That keeps the white count alive, which would allow for another push to new all-time highs.If this move down develops into a full five-wave structure off the 2/11 high, it would open the door to a larger-degree top being in place per the yellow wave B.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago

Market Moves Lower After Stalling at Key Resistance

Today the market opened higher and reached the upper end of the key retracement zone from the decline off the February 2nd high. However, that level was quickly rejected, and we saw a sharp move lower that can be counted as a five-wave impulsive decline.Since today's low of the day was struck earlier this morning, the price has bounced higher, but that move so far counts best as being corrective in nature. That suggests the market likely has more work to do to the downside before we can begin looking for even a local bottom.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago

Quick Pre-Weekend Update

We are approaching the lower end of the Ending Diagonal reversal target zone at 6961–7028 and are now up more than 2.5% off the overnight low. As we move into this key target and resistance area, it would be reasonable to expect at least a local top to form.Although ES did break the 6767 level, that break occurred outside of regular market hours when volume was low, and the cash SPX did not break the corresponding low. While not ideal, this does still allow the white wave 2 bottoming scenario to remain valid.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago

Market Breaks Initial Support, Opening the Door for a Larger Top

Today the market continued to push lower, breaking down below the first key support/pivot level that had been holding the bullish case for new all-time highs. With that said, the structure of the decline from the 7026 high is very overlapping and lacks an impulsive wave structure, which is more characteristic of corrective price action.Importantly, there is still one key price level just below current levels that could hold and keep the bullish path to new highs intact.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago
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