After pushing higher to new highs last week we have seen the market pullback on what is so far a fairly clear corrective wave pattern. This pullback occurred after getting a fairly clear five-wave move up off of the 8/18 low. As we are still counting the pattern as incomplete into the highs last week along with what does look to be a corrective move to the downside the base case remains that this move down off of the highs is simply a pullback that still should resolve higher as long as we can hold support. That support zone current comes in at the 4462-4385 zone below which represents the 38.2-76.4 retrace zone of the wave b / (ii).
After testing the 4442 resistance level several times over the past few days the ES finally broke sharply through that level today giving us the initial indication that we have indeed bottomed in the wave (2) as shown per the green count on the charts. Now with that being said and as I have noted previously the action up into the highs is still not what I would consider a terribly clean pattern on the smaller timeframes so we need to continue to rely on our fibs and fib pinball framework to help give us further guidance as this pushes higher.
Today just before the regular session open we saw the ES spike higher and push into the 4442 resistance level that I had been watching for several days now. After touching that level we saw the ES pullback down off of that level. I am viewing this 4442 level as a fairly key upside pivot that should help determine whether the ES/SPX is ready to break directly higher in the hear of the micro wave (3) as shown on the ES chart or if we still need to see a bit deeper of a pullback into support for the wave c of (2).
After seeing a small pullback on Sunday night and pushing higher on what appeared to be corrective wave action we once again saw the ES pullback last night and then push higher on what still looks like corrective wave action. So with that and although we did see a higher high today the structure of the move higher is not overly suggestive that this is ready to see a sustained breakout higher just yet. So with that, this action is still suggestive that the market should ideally push a bit lower back into the micro support one in that 4407-4308 zone before ultimately finding a bottom in the green wave (2).
Overnight we saw a small pullback that approached the upper end of the micro support zone for the wave (2) that was laid out on the ES 15 min chart in the 4407-4380 zone. During the regular session the market pushed back higher but so far the move higher is very overlapping and looks far more corrective in nature than impulsive. This action is suggestive that the market should ideally push a bit lower back into the micro support one in that 4407-4308 zone before ultimately finding a bottom in the green wave (2). If the market does continue to push directly higher and breakout over the 4443 level then I could potentially count the bottom of all of wave (2) in place.
Today we saw the entire drop yesterday erased as we pushed sharply higher today. This sharp move higher has confirmed that we have indeed struck at least a local bottom in the form of a wave a of a larger wave 4. As we near the close we do however still only have three waves up off of the lows and are approaching a key resistance area on the smaller degree timeframes and from the move up off of the lows.The 4325 level on the ES represents the 61.8 retrace level of the entire move down off of the highs and the 4329 level is the 138.2 ext of the initial move up off of the lows. This 138.2 -176.
Today we saw the markets continue to push lower giving us a deeper and more standard pull back into the support zone for the micro wave 2 that we have been watching for several days and is shown on the 10min SPX chart. At the time of this writing, we are currently sitting just over the 50% retrace level which comes in at the 4340 level. We do however still need to see a full five-wave move to the upside to give us initial confirmation that we have indeed struck a bottom. That should then be followed up with a push back up over the 4393 high and then through the 61.8-76.4 extension pivot level of the wave 1.
Overnight we saw the ES pullback again only to get bough in the early pre-open hours. That buying continued at the open and into the early morning regular trading session. This pushed both the ES and SPX to slight new highs but we were unable to sustain a break out higher before turning back lower again in the mid-morning. The market then found a bottom just as the lunch hour began after which point we saw both the SPX and ES give us a smaller degree five-wave move up off of the lows which was followed by a smaller degree corrective move that was then also bought as pushed higher into the EOD.
Last night and today were almost an exact repeat of what had occurred on Sunday and during yesterday's trading session. This was due to the extension higher that we saw on both the ES and SPX. Since that extension likely counts as part of one single five-wave move up off of the lows we are still looking for a pullback for the smaller degree wave 2 as shown in green on the charts.So with that, we still are watching two main paths from here with the primary being that we are in a wave 1 of a larger wave (iii) of 3 up and the alternative being that we have completed all of wave 3 shown in yellow.
Overnight we saw the ES pullback into the micro support zone that we had laid out last week for the potential wave (4) and then push higher today giving us what can count as a fairly clean five up off of the 7/8 low. Unfortunately, the micro count on the SPX is not quite as clear as the SPX opened very close to the close on Friday thus we are missing that dip for that wave (4). With that being said I am going to give the benefit of the doubt that we did indeed get five up off of the lows in both the ES and SPX.
After consolidating over the holiday trading session and overnight we saw the ES and SPX take a bit of a pullback into the early afternoon session. This pullback broke under the most upper support levels thus making it likely that we are now seeing another series of nested 1-2s on the more micro-scale. This path is shown on the ES chart and so far the pullback is has hit the 50% retrace level from the wave ii bottom and we have now what can be considered five up off of that low.
Overnight we saw the ES push higher over the 4298 price resistance level that we had been watching for several days only to dip lower into the opening bell. This dip was however quickly bought back up and the market is now once again at new highs and is currently pressing the very key pivot level that sits at the 4317 level on the SPX.This 4317 level represents the 76.4 extension of the wave (i) move up off of the May 12th low and into the June 15th high. Our Fib Pinball guidelines tell us that when we see the market move through this 76.
Overnight we saw the ES finally dip lower after a relentless grind higher off of the June 20th low. That dip however was not large enough from either a time or price perspective to reliably consider it all of the wave ii/b pullback that we have been expecting over the past several days. So with that, we still need to see this drop back below the 4264 low that was struck yesterday followed by a move under the 4255 level to really give us further evidence that we have indeed topped in the wave ii/b.
Today the SPX is trading slightly higher but overall very flat from the close yesterday and we are still trading within the topping zone for the potential wave i in green and wave a in yellow.From a structural perspective, there still is very little change to the count on the ES since yesterday and really last week when we pushed higher and completed a potential five up off of the lows. This push higher has put us on the lookout for the next pullback which should provide us another buying opportunity in the equity markets.
Today both the ES and SPX pushed higher after consolidating yesterday which has presented us with a clean five-wave move up off of the lows on both charts. Having this five-wave structure is very much supportive of seeing further upside action in the coming weeks ahead.From a structural perspective, there has been very little change to the count on the ES since last Thursday when we pushed higher and completed a potential five up off of the lows. This push higher has put us on the lookout for the next pullback which as noted last week and in Avi's weekend update for another buying opportunity in the equity markets.
Today both the ES and SPX pushed higher after consolidating yesterday which has presented us with a clean five-wave move up off of the lows on both charts. Having this five-wave structure is very much supportive of seeing further upside action in the coming weeks ahead.So, with that, the next pullback that we see should provide us with another buying opportunity on the SPX. Furthermore, with the five up off of the lows, we are now able to re-order the counts and make the primary path pointing us up towards the 4440-4500 zone for wave v of 3, which has been changed to green from the previous yellow count.
After getting a strong push into the close yesterday we saw the ES consolidate overnight and throughout the entire day. The consolidation occurred right at the 161.8 ext of the initial move up off of the lows and over the upper support zone at the 4216-4204 zone. This is suggestive that this consolidation is a micro wave iv as shown in yellow on the ES 5min chart.
With this strong push into the final hour and as we approach new all-time highs, I wanted to post a supplemental market update outlining the risks and pivot levels should we directly break directly over the previous all-time highs.
Today we saw the open slightly lower but hold over key support which managed to keep alive the most immediately bullish yellow count and still allow for the ES/SPX to develop a full five up off of the lows. Since the open, we have now pushed higher and made another higher high and are closing in on the standard target zone for a wave iii/c at the 4235-4255 zone.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 months ago
Free 15-Day Trial
• S&P 500 Wave Analysis • Gold, Silver, Oil & US Dollar Reports • Stocks, Options, Cryptocurrencies & more • Live Coaching & Webinars
I manage about $100m. Been in the business for about 28 years. . . it seems for every dollar I spend here, I make about 10,000%
""misterk" - Trading Room" - 2021-04-15
Here is an End of the Year THANK YOU, Avi and EWT staff! I joined EWT this year in April, and was really despondent in how my retirement plans and trading account had been performing. I have been trading commodities and stocks for 30 years, and could never keep what I would make in the market. Never. Always gave it all back, and then some. The desire of my heart was to trade for a living, and finally, after 30 years, I can see this as a possibility! I switched to a self-directed 401K at work, and started trading a personal account with you all in April. My accounts are up 320% since April thanks to you! Until then, I was looking at possibly not being able to retire for a long time, but not now. I never knew when to get out of a position. I was always wrong. If I hung on it went down. If I closed out the position, it went up. I was ALWAYS wrong...so frustrated. I owe my success all to you, Avi, and EWT, and the EWT members. SO from the bottom of my heart...THANKS so much. I really appreciate you all!! I have tears of happiness because of you all. HAPPY NEW YEAR, and happy trading in 2021. I am really looking forward to it, for once!
""Wheat" - Trading Room" - 2020-12-30
What I love about EW is you know when things go wrong and you know when to get out of a position at minimal damage...it has helped so much in my RR work
""Kenneth_Aydt" - Trading Room" - 2019-10-03
My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
""AAMilne" - Trading Room" - 2021-03-02
Love this community! If you have a mindset to learn, this place is a gold mine.
""FletchFFletch" - Trading Room" - 2021-05-07
Love this community. Best analysts anywhere, and so many terrific experienced members who are generous enough to share their thoughts and trades. . . None of us can control the market, but this site provides more confidence via the counts and suggested stops. Appreciate you all! Absolute rock stars!
""WildWestie" - Trading Room" - 2021-05-19
Unparalleled value...can't even imagine trying to trade without this service.
""GoodLuckChuck" - Trading Room" - 2021-05-05
In about twenty years learning in the markets the most gifted, talented person in the world, regarding markets analysis, I've encountered is Avi Gilburt
""FALLACY_NAVIGATOR" - Trading Room" - 2021-04-30
Your team are the best traders & analysts. truly a world class trading site.
""MambaMentality" - Trading Room" - 2021-03-04
I love this site. You’ve changed my life. Thank you so much for all that you do!