Recent Articles by Mike Golembesky

Is The Market Ready For A Bigger Bounce?

Today we saw the market open slightly higher only to see a sharp drop in the early trading session. That move lower was relatively short lived however as we saw a fairly sharp move back up off of the low of the day. At the time of this writing, we are still trading under micro resistance so we are still not out of the woods in regards to the market seeing a bigger bounce just yet.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 day ago

Market Down But Not Quite Out

Today we saw the market move lower with the Russell 2000 leading the drop moving down more than 3%. While this move lower is certainly a warning sign that we may have already put in a larger degree top we still are sitting over some key support levels on all of the indexes which is leaving the door open to seeing yet another higher high. Should we begin to break down under these key support levels we likely will see the start of an accelerated move lower in the weeks ahead.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

The U.S. Dollar Finally Turns Lower

After grinding higher over the last several weeks the DXY finally turned lower this week after hitting just over the 105 level.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Can The Market Push Directly To New Highs?

Today we saw the market move higher after seeing a multi-session pullback. We have moved over the lower resistance level thus giving us an initial signal that we have put in at least a local bottom. The question we have at hand at the moment is whether we can see a direct push to new highs or will the market see yet another turn lower before finding a more sustained bottom.The answer to the question above is going to be a bit challenging to answer from a structural perspective as both a push to new highs and a corrective move higher will likely take the same three-wave form.

by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago

Still Looking For A Deeper Pullback To Confirm The Five Up

This past week we saw what can count as five up on Silver, Gold and GDX. The pattern is so far fairly clear in regards to that potential five-up. As Avi noted in the last update while we do have a fairly clean potential five up we still need to see a corrective retrace lower followed by a break back over the previous high to confirm that we are ready to begin the larger degree third wave up. So far we have a bit of divergence in regard to this pullback with Silver pulling back the furthest while GDX has actually exceeded the previous high.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Is The Russell 2000 Leading The Markets Higher?

Today we saw the market open higher after testing the lower end of the upper support zone yesterday. While we are still trading up just under half a percent at the time of this writing the Russell 2000 is currently up over 1.7% and closing in on the overtaking the high that was struck on 3/21. So that leads us to the question of whether the Russell 2000 is leading the markets higher or whether this move on the Russell 2000 is simply another fakeout in the form of a b wave before moving lower once again. In regards to the SPX itself, very little has changed in the count. As I noted over the past several days upper support came in the 5222-5205 zone.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Another Day of Consolidation

Today was almost a repeat of yesterday however instead of opening slightly down and then consolidating we saw the market opening slightly up and then consolidating all day. So with that, there still is very little I can add to today's update as the market has simply not moved very much and we remain over upper support but below last week's high. I will re-iterate the parameters that I am watching but again not much has changed with today's price action. As I noted yesterday upper support remains in the 5222-5205 zone. This is the ideal spot to hold to keep the very near-term pressure up under the yellow count.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Sees A Day Of Consolidation

Today we saw the market open slightly down and then trade flat for the rest of the day. There is really very little I can add to today's update as the market has simply not moved very much and we remain over upper support but below last week's high. I will re-iterate the parameters that I am watching but again not much has changed with today's price action. As I noted last week upper support remains in the 5222-5205 zone which we touched today. This is the ideal spot to hold to keep the very near-term pressure up under the yellow count. Assuming we can hold that zone then the next target overhead comes in at the 5250-5279 zone.

by Mike Golembesky - 3 weeks ago

Market Consolidates After Moving Higher Overnight

The market continued to push higher overnight moving into the target/resistance zone for the wave (iii) of 3 under the yellow count. Today we saw the market pull back and consolidate off of the high of the day. The parameters are fairly clear at this point and as long as we are over support the near-term pressure will remain up and we still do not have a signal that we have topped just yet.With the push-up today I have moved upper support to the 5222-5205 zone. This is the ideal spot to hold to keep the very near-term pressure up under the yellow count.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 weeks ago

What To Do When A Trade Moves Against Us

Folks, there seems to have been a bit of confusion on the IWM trade setup and follow-through analysis. So I am going to address it here in a new thread to make sure that everyone is clear on the best practice on how I set up these trades and manage their follow-through. First and foremost when I set up a trade they are designed to be set up as the premium paid is your risk. There are no stops on these trades. So when entering the trade decide what you are willing to lose per trade and that is what you purchase in option premium.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 weeks ago

What's Next After The SPX Pushes To New Highs?

Today after the FMOC announcement we saw the SPX push to new highs. Furthermore, we broke over a smaller degree resistance level which is given us the initial signal that we may be following through per the yellow count as laid out on the charts over the past several days. With that being said so far the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are still holding below their respective highs so we still have yet to confirm a more sustained breakout on those indexes so far.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 weeks ago

Market Still Holding Support

After moving lower overnight we saw the market push higher in the afternoon session and retest the 5180 high that was struck yesterday.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 weeks ago

Market Not Giving Up Just Yet

The market is trading relatively flat today and is still trading under the previous high at the 5188 level on the SPX. The overall price action remains relatively sloppy as it has been off of the 2/13 low. This sloppy and overlapping action is still supportive that we are dealing with an Ending Diagonal up off of that low. With this continued grind higher however we still do not have any signal that this Diagonal has put in a top just yet.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Still Consolidating - Market Analysis for Feb 28th, 2024

There is very little to add to the analysis today as the market continues to consolidate near the highs on corrective wave action to the downside. The bottom line on the SPX remains that as long as we hold over the 5044-4985 zone then the wave ii bottoming count remains intact and in play here which I am showing in yellow on the 10min SPX chart. We would need to see a full five up off of one of the support fibs to suggest we are starting the wave iii up. I do want to note that I have added an alternate count as shown in red.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Did We Bottom In All Of Wave 4?

Overnight we saw the market move higher followed by a continued sharp move higher today. The move saw very few retracements as the SPX broke over the previous high at the 5058 level. We are still trading near the highs as of the time of this update and with the breakout, we have certainly opened the door to a direct push towards the 5155-5313 upper target zone as we have been watching on the 60min charts.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Still Trying To Fill Out The Wave 4

Today we saw the markets continue to move lower across the board after seeing downward action yesterday.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Have We Begun The Wave c of 4?

Today we saw the markets move lower across the board after getting a fairly deep retrace higher last week. This move down has given us the initial confirmation that we have indeed begun the wave (c) of 4 down. Now we do still have a bit more work to do to further confirm this and fill out that wave (c) of 4 but with today's action, we do now have initial confirmation that we have indeed begun the wave (c) of 4 down.Drilling down to the 5-minute ES chart it does appear that we are in the wave iii of the (c) of (4) down. Under this case, we are entering the wave iii target zone which comes in at the 4973-4954 zone.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 month ago

Market Digesting Yesterday's Drop

After seeing a fairly sharp move down yesterday we saw the market consolidate today and move higher thus taking a bit of a breather from yesterday's move lower. So far the move up off of the low is corrective in nature which is supportive of seeing a move back under yesterday's low before a larger bottom is seen. With that being said we may still have a bit more consolidating to do in this region before that breakdown begins. We do however have some fairly clear parameters to work with that will help guide us as to whether we are ready to break down or continue to see further upside consolidation.