Market Still Grinding - Market Analysis for Jul 2nd, 2025
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The market continued its grind higher today, working its way up toward the next key Fibonacci resistance level I’ve been tracking on the SPX chart. This level, which represents the 261.8% extension from the move off the April lows, comes in at 6283. If we see further upside follow-through, this will be the next critical area of interest in the days ahead.
That said, the market remains extended across multiple degrees and is now showing negative divergence on the 60-minute MACD. While these are important cautionary signals, we still lack a clear breakdown in support or a definitive five-wave move to the downside, both of which would be required to confirm that a top is in place.
From a wave count perspective, not much has changed. The price action continues to be sloppy on the smaller timeframes, and there’s little to add to the analysis we’ve been outlining over the past several weeks. I continue to monitor the key support zone below at 5929–5793, as well as the structure of the next meaningful pullback.
Until that support is broken, and/or we see a clean five-wave decline, this market can still push higher. However, given how stretched we are in the current pattern, I remain cautious here, as we are likely in the final stages of a larger degree move that should lead to at least a notable pullback before setting up for a more sustainable advance in the weeks and months ahead.
