Fed Moves the Market… Nowhere

Heading into today, market participants were sitting tight, bracing for what they hoped would be a market-moving announcement from the Fed. That announcement came and went, and the market barely flinched. The FOMC meeting turned out to be a non-event, leaving us right where we were yesterday: hovering over support in what still counts best as a corrective three-wave decline off the high, and with a Russell 2000 chart that would still look far more complete with another push higher.

So, from a structural standpoint, nothing has changed. The parameters I outlined in yesterday’s update remain fully intact. Until and unless we see a break of key support, there’s simply no confirmation that any sort that a top has been struck.

On the ES, support continues to reside at 6318, with a more meaningful confluence zone below that in the 6239–6152 region. As long as those levels hold, we retain the potential for another rally toward the next overhead fib target at 6527. Similarly, on the SPX, larger-degree support sits in the 6064–5929 region. A sustained break below that zone would be needed to confirm that a top has been struck, whether that’s in the blue wave a or red wave b count remains to be seen.

As for the RTY, while we technically have enough waves in place to consider a potential top, it’s quite rare to see an Ending Diagonal wrap up with such a marginal new high. Typically, we’d expect a push closer to the upper trendline before calling it done. From that perspective, I’d like to see the RTY hold over 2200 and ideally make one more move higher into the 2347–2371 zone. A break below 2200 would be our first warning that a top may already be in place, but again, above that level, the count simply looks more complete with another high.

So, while the counts remain extended and I continue to approach the long side with some caution, we simply don’t yet have the structure or confirmation to call a top. Until we see a clean five-wave decline or a sustained break of support, I’m staying patient and letting the next move off the lows provide the signal.