Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Metals Rally Added Complexity

As I warned in the weekend update, we needed to see a direct move lower in the complex early in the week to keep the count strongly in the c-wave down perspective.  Yet, when gold took out its Sunday night bounce high, I also warned that it would open the door to much greater complexity in our charts, including a potential b-wave triangle, and an ending diagonal for the c-wave down.  And, that is currently where we stand.In looking at the attached 60-minute GC chart, you will see I am outlining the potential ending diagonal structure for this c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Moving Support Up Again

With the market continuing to grind higher, it makes me more and more cautious the higher we go.  But, I assume you have gathered that from my analysis over these last few weeks.  Yet, as the market goes higher, it raises the support below us.  And, until that support is broken, we have no indication that any top has been struck, despite recognizing how stretched this rally has indeed become.So, with the action over the last 24 hours, I am moving our support up to the 6110SPX level.  We would need to break that support and follow through below 6080SPX to suggest a top has indeed finally been struck.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

100 Points Over Support

With the market seemingly rather quiet today, I want to remind you that we are still 100 points over the initial support I noted in the weekend update residing in the 6080-6095SPX region.  And, until the market takes that support out, the bulls are still fully in controlEven though I have noted that we are still well over support, I am going to highlight yet again that this is a very stretched and full count.  While a catalysts is certainly not necessary, I would suggest that you be ready for what can be a very aggressive reversal, as that is often seen when the market stretches one way or another.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Is That Our “Bounce” In Metals?

My main premise has been that we are likely within a 4th wave consolidation/pullback in gold and GDX and a 2nd wave in silver, and I am still very much of that opinion.   The question with which we have been grappling is whether the c-wave of that 4th wave in gold and GDX and the 2nd wave in silver has begun? For now, I am still of the opinion that it has.In both gold and GDX, we have what can be viewed as a 1-2, i-ii downside set up developing.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

How The Hell Is Gold Red During The War?

If I had told you that Israel and Iran went to war and escalated that war throughout this past week, I am sure you would have expected gold to have rallied quite strongly. Well, the truth is that gold ended the week lower than where it sat before the start of this war.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

This Market Action Is Unbelievable

If I had told you that Israel and Iran went to war and escalated that war throughout this past week, I am sure you would have expected the stock market to have taken a major hit. Well, the truth is that the market gapped down and opened approximately 35 points on Monday morning to around 6101SPX, and then closed the week 43 points down from the week’s open.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Are Metals Starting To Crack?

At this point in time, I am starting to see a bit more evidence that we may have a b-wave top in place in both GDX and GLD at this time.  While not the most clear and convincing evidence just yet, we may be starting the wave 1 down in their respective c-waves. While the respective 2nd waves in that wave 1 is quite shallow in both, it does leave some questions about that micro count.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Adding IWM Thoughts Today

No, I still have nothing to add to the SPX analysis.  But, based upon the fact that we have no clear 5-wave decline from the high thus far, the door is still open for tomorrow’s catalyst of the Fed rate decision to ignite one more rally before this wave tops. But, all parameters outlined in prior updates still very much apply.However, in the event that we have indeed topped, then I would be looking more towards the blue count, as we do not have a clear 5-wave decline off the high, as it is looks relatively clear as a 3-wave corrective decline.So, today, I am including the similar paths I see in IWM.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

See Last Week - Market Analysis for Jun 16th, 2025

I really feel so bad that I have nothing meaningful to add to the analysis over the last week or two.   The market has done nothing but grind inch by inch higher towards the prior all-time highs.  And, as it stands right now, I do not have a 5-wave decline in place to suggest that the b-wave has topped, nor do I have any pattern in place that is presenting a projection below the 5920SPX support at this time.I know patience is not terribly easy, but I am personally also waiting patiently with a lot of money raised and sitting on the sidelines.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

What Is The News Telling Us About The Stock Market?

Many of you may already know my view on how we should approach news events. But, I think it is worth taking a moment to really clarify my position.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Honey Badger Rally - Market Analysis for Jun 12th, 2025

With the market not exhibiting the typical hallmarks of the conclusion of an ending diagonal (a spike up followed by a sharp reversal), it is simply continuing to grind higher towards the prior all-time high, despite a month of negative divergences evident on the 60-minute chart.  Yet, once this rally concludes, I am expecting a sharp reversal to begin the next larger pullback.  That begins with the break-down of the 5920SPX level, with follow-through below 5767SPX.So, there really is not much more for me to add to the analysis at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Updated SLV Weekly Chart

While there are a few things that I can add to the analysis of GDX and GLD today, I wanted to highlight the weekly SLV chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Tick Tock - Market Analysis for Jun 5th, 2025

Yea, I know it sounds like a broken record already, but after being in the same general region now for basically the last month, it is still only a matter of time before the market provides us with the standard pullback we will often see.  Can we extend a bit higher first?  Of course.  So, for now, our micro support is the 5920SPX region.  And, below that is the all important 5767SPX which is highlighted on the 60-minute chart quite prominently.  Below that level provides the confirmation of the pullback and the structure of that pullback will likely tell us what to do over the rest of this year and beyond.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Silver Stretching Its Legs

As I just posted in the trading room as an alert, silver is finally trying to stretch its legs.  But, I still think the evidence suggests this is a final move in this rally rather than the start of a new one.  As I noted in the live video yesterday morning to the full-time membership, the last consolidation just below us really counts best as a triangle.  And, we know that a triangle most commonly takes shape in either a 4th wave or a b-wave.  That means that the move out of a triangle is most often the final move in a trending move whether it is a 5th wave or a c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Another 5 Waves - Market Analysis for May 29th, 2025

With the spike overnight, the market has taken out the high struck yesterday, which made it clear that this 5-wave structure had not yet completed.  So, my view is that the overnight high completed the 5-wave rally off the wave 4 low on May 23rd, and that we have potentially and finally begun that pullback I have wanted to see.Yet, while we clearly are very extended to the upside and we have a very full count, what we do not have is confirmation that the high for this rally is likely in place.  We will need to break down below the wave 4 low (5767SPX) to confirm that the bigger pullback I still expect is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Still Expecting Lower Prices In Metals

Nothing has changed in the bigger picture in my metals analysis.  But, the paths to the lower levels is still an open question.Starting with gold, I can now count 5 waves down in a leading diagonal to begin the c-wave lower. But, we really would need to bounce from the 3285 region in the futures (Aug contract) in order to retain this path.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Market Levitates To Top of Resistance

With today’s high, we saw a spike and reversal at the top of our resistance box on the ES chart.  And, I think this is a good marker for us.I would say that as long as we remain below today’s high, I will view it as the top of the [c] wave of wave ii. But, I cannot say that the decline off that high is a clear 5-wave decline.  So, we will need more information about the decline structure should we head lower before we can view this count as a high probability.Alternatively, should the market be able to exceed today’s high, then it begins to suggest that the wave 5 has not likely completed.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Metals Rally Before Next Bout Of Weakness

Due to my travels, I do not have a lot of time for this update.  So, I am going to keep it simple.GLD seems to be rallying I the [c] wave of an expanded b-wave flat.  Within the [c] wave, we seem to still need a 4-5 to complete it.   But, should we see a 5-wave decline begin from this point forth, then we can view that as wave 1 of the c-wave down, and the wave 2 bounce could be a good shorting opportunity.Silver is still trying to get to its target blue box to complete 5 waves up.  Thereafter, I would still expect a corrective wave [2] pullback, which would be a good buying opportunity.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Sentiment Speaks: Are Mom and Pop All In?

Oftentimes, people view the market as more of a mystery than it really has to be. When you break the market down into its most simplistic perspective, then you recognize that markets top when everyone is in, and markets bottom when everyone that wants to sell has sold. In other words, when markets reach an extreme in bullishness, the market tops, and when it reaches an extreme in bearishness, the market bottoms.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

This Correction In Metals Just Got More Complex

I am sorry to say, but this correction in the metals complex just got more complex.  Let’s start with GDX, which is showing us a rather complex pattern right now.With GDX dropping in a more direct fashion, it opens the door to two potential paths, ultimately taking us much lower in the coming weeks.   If you would look at the attached 8-minute GDX chart, you will see that we have broken down below the last pullback low with 3 waves so far.  That leaves the door open to either complete all 5 waves down which likely suggests a larger a-wave, which would be following by a b-wave bounce, which could take us several weeks itself.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Certainly “Feels” Bullish - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2025

If we look back to the chart I attached below from April 7, the last thing we “felt” was bullish.   Yet, that was the time to be looking to layer into long positions for the rally we expected to the target/resistance box overhead on that chart, which is what I outlined in my analysis at the time.Today, we are now slightly above that target/resistance box, and I am seeing one article after another declaring that it is time to buy because the bull market is back.  The masses are proclaiming that the "all clear" sign has been given for the market.  Everyone is back to being certain this is bullish again.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Market Pushing To Extremes Again

First, I want to note that I am still expecting that risk-off action in the market, but only once this rally finally tapers off.  Second, I do also want to remind you that I did warn over the weekend that “[u]ntil we actually begin that break-down, the market can always choose to push higher to the top of the target/resistance box on the 60-minute SPX chart.”  And, the market has clearly chosen to take us to that region and we are hovering there at this time.But, again, I am still expecting that pullback over the coming weeks.  Yet, there are times the market takes us to extremes before it finally turns.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

You News, You Lose!

I am still amazed at how many investors still follow the news for investment decisions. No matter how many studies that are published which suggest that news is not what drives markets, people are still glued to the news and expect they can outperform the market based upon the substance of news events and economic reports.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Relatively Full Now - Market Analysis for May 8th, 2025

As I said just an hour or so ago, we now have a relatively full pattern to the upside, along with some nice negative divergence on the 60-minute MACD.  Moreover, the daily MACD is now hitting the bottom of its resistance box.  Can the market still continue to extend?  Sure.   But, recognize that risk is now rising for a potential reversal when the count is sound and full.  What we are now seeking is a break-down now below yesterday's low to signal that a top is likely in place. So, below yesterday’s low and we are likely in the expected pullback, and we will then need to assess the nature of the pullback to determine which counts to apply.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Rally Topping? - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2025

While I was expecting the metals complex to see a b-wave rally in GDX and GLD, the gold rally has begun a bit earlier than I had expected, as I was looking for a bit lower first.  But, the market had other ideas.In both GDX and gold/GLD, it really seems as the more likely perspective is that this rally is a b-wave.   In fact, the rally in GDX and gold have retraced to the .764 region of the prior decline.  And, while I can make an argument for a 5-wave decline from the high in GDX, I really do not see a clear 5-waves down yet in gold.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago
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