Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Rally Target Reached - Market Analysis for Mar 10th, 2026

With the rally off the Sunday night low now reaching the target box I provided yesterday afternoon, we have just about reached an a=c point off the low.  I have it estimated on my SPX chart due to not having the low on this chart that was struck in the futures.  So, the numbers may not be exact.Based upon our Fibonacci Pinball structure, once the market reaches the 1.00 extension, the .618 extension becomes our support.  That is generally over the 6780SPX region.  So, a break down below that level will be our initial indication that wave 5 may be in progress.I want to also repost something I posted this afternoon as an alert:“We are now approaching the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 16 hours ago

Very Controlled Market Decline

With the market finally breaking support, it did not fall away as I would have normally expected.   It tells me that the buy-the-dip crowd is still very much alive and well.  But, that does not change my view of the larger structure.The break of the support makes it much more likely that we are within the larger degree pullback, for which I have been expecting for some time.  But, with the continued up/down action, it seems to suggest the c-wave of this (a) wave pullback is taking shape as an ending diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Downside Set Up - Market Analysis for Mar 4th, 2026

While I am showing a potential 1-2, i-ii in both gold and silver, I have to note there are a number of issues with it.  First, I cannot say that the wave i structure is the cleanest of 5-wave structures.  Second, normally, wave i of 3 will target AT LEAST the .382 extension of waves 1-2, whereas they normally target the .618 extension of waves 1-2.  And, what I have labeled as wave i of 3 has not even come close to the .382 extension.  So, needless to say, I really need a bit more evidence to make this immediate downside set up a much higher probability. The other issue I have is that I really have no clear similar downside set up in GDX.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Tested, Yet Again - Market Analysis for Mar 3rd, 2026

I am not sure how many times it will take before a test of the 6720SPX support finally breaks it, but we had yet another today.  And, thus far, the market has held yet again.  Moreover, the rally off that low is initially taking shape as a 5-wave structure, which again forces me to place the yellow (b) wave at today’s low, with a reasonable expectation of a (c) wave rally again.  So, while we wait for the market to provide a bit more clarity, I think this is a good time to review our Fibonacci Pinball structure to show how it differentiates between various options.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Mid-Day Update

The SPX is now pressing hard on the 6720SPX support.  Should this break in a sustained fashion, the trap door opens and this can easily project down to the bottom of the (a) wave support box in the 6200-6400SPX region.  As it continues to develop, we will track the micro structure on the ES chart, with a much larger i-ii downside potential now.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Be On The Lookout

As I write this update, gold seems to be a relatively clear 3-wave pullback, and silver is questionable as to whether it is 3 or 5.  You see, what would count as a 5th wave in silver is really so large it can also be considered a c-wave, which would then count it as a corrective a-b-c pullback.  So, where does that leave us?Well, without a CLEAR 5-wave decline, it tells us that the probability that the larger c-wave decline is not highly likely.  And, we have to then seek other potential options.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

A Clouded Market - Market Analysis for Mar 2nd, 2026

Part of my job is not just to simply provide cut and dry Elliott Wave analysis.  You see, in doing my job, there are times I must read messages being sent to us by the market action, which can assist in my primary job of providing analysis.  Let me explain.The market had a potential 1-2, i-ii downside structure in place (albeit with a shallow wave ii), which means we had a set up for a 3rd wave down coming into today.  And, we even got a negative catalyst to ignite that 3rd wave down.  Yet, the market did not take advantage of that set up.  Moreover, the futures declined down to a 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Just A Reminder - Market Analysis for Feb 28th, 2026

Many of you may have noticed that I did not mention a single word of the Middle East in my weekend analysis.   I am probably alone throughout the entire internet in that regard.  And, the reason is that the market is likely going to do as it is set up to do.  To drive this point home, I challenge each and every one of you to show me an instance when a war breaking out was a “cause” for a market decline, and I can probably show you just as many examples as it was a “cause” for a rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Setting Up The Next Leg Down

As I outlined over the weekend, the silver chart was providing us with the clearest path as to how a b-wave can potentially complete.  And, I would say that this is still true.   So, let’s look at the smaller degree chart in silver as our guide.From the weekend update, we were looking for the market to minimally continue this rally towards the 93 region, which is the .500 retracement of the initial decline off the all-time high in silver.  Today, the market approached the 92 level and has seemingly backed off.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Decision Time - Market Analysis for Feb 25th, 2026

For this afternoon's update, I am simply going to repost two alerts I presented in the room today, as it really lays out how I see the smaller degree structure right now:10:25AM Alert:These two paths are now coming to a head.  We have moved through the pivot on the SPX structure, which normally suggests we are moving higher in a wave iii of 3.  But, there are a number of issues here.  First, we are approaching the 1.00 extension, which could be all of the a-b-c of a corrective rally as shown on the 15-minute ES chart, which is also approaching the .764 retrace of the initial 5-wave decline.  That leans to a bit more of a bearish interpretation.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Context Is Important - Market Analysis for Feb 21st, 2026

This market has been frustrating.   What’s more so, it has been frustrating since 2022.  But, the question is why has it been frustrating?  Well, normally, the markets move in standard 5-wave structures which makes prognostication and trading so much easier.  But, since 2022, this market has been taking shape in waves of 3, which are much more like corrective structures, and are much more variable and difficult to navigate.   This is the nature of the beast with which we have been dealing over the last 4 years.  Yet, understanding your environment provides a huge advantage.  You see, when you know you are in an environment of 3-wave structures, it tells you that you cannot be as aggressive as you would otherwise.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Cloudy, With A Chance Of Diagonals

Well, up until now, I have given the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.  However, that benefit of the doubt is starting to erode.With the lack of follow-through to the upside, we have been reducing the probability that the bulls can still take us higher one more time before the bigger correction begins.  As of the time of my writing this update, the only path I can maintain for the bullish follow through is via a leading diagonal.  And, as you may already know, I do not view them as strong trading cues.Yet, the bears are not doing much better, as any potential for a wave i down is also only left to a leading diagonal structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

I Can Only Give To You What I Can See

I am presenting you with three charts, all telling me somewhat different stories.  So, I am just going to get into the charts.Starting with gold, while I can fashion an argument to claim that this b-wave has completed, I cannot say that I would wholeheartedly believe it.  It would have made much more sense if the market had begun this decline from the February 11th high in impulsive fashion.  Then I would be able to more strongly consider that this b-wave has concluded and the c-wave has begun.  But, that is not what we have seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

You Decide - Market Analysis for Feb 17th, 2026

I am going to lay out what I seeing in the SPX/ES charts, and you can decide how it should be viewed.  From the bullish side of the market, we have now completed 5 waves into today’s low.  And, in the yellow count, this could complete a much more protracted yellow (b) wave, suggesting a (c) wave rally north of 7100SPX has begun.  Moreover, the MACD on the 60-minute chart seems to have reset down to the region from which rallies have begun.In order for me to have confidence in the (c) wave rally, I would need to see a rather clear 5-wave rally off the low.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

What The Heck Is Up (or not up) With Silver?

While both gold and GDX have seen very nice corrective bounces thus far, with GDX approaching the .764 retracement of its initial decline and gold approaching the .618 retracement of the same, silver has only mustered a move to the .382 retracement region.   The question on my and everyone else’s mind is how do we read this?  If I were looking at gold and GDX in a vacuum, I would be shorting the crap out of those two charts.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Looking For A Pullback

With the market completing what seems to be a reasonable 5-wave rally off last week’s low, I think it is now reasonable to expect a pullback. And, normally, we seek a retracement in the .500-.618 region of the prior rally.As you can see, I have added a support box between the .500-.764 retracement of what I have labeled as wave 1, which is basically the 6828-6883SPX region.  For now, micro support is in the 6945-50SPX region.   Once that breaks, it should provide us with an initial indication that wave 2 is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

What I Don’t See

Sometimes what you don’t see in the market helps you to decide about what the market is about to do.   Of late, I have seen initial indications that the market may have finally topped in the rally off the April 2025 low.  But, when we did not see follow through below 6720SPX, it told me to wait a bit longer for more signals.  With the strong rally we saw at the end of last week, I initially surmised that it was a corrective rally, since I did not see any clear indications that the yellow (c) wave rally pointing us north of 7200SPX was taking shape.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Short and Sweet - Market Analysis for Feb 5th, 2026

There really is not much for me to add to my metals analysis at this time.  My view remains that we are mired in a b-wave within a larger a-b-c corrective structure off the recent highs.  And, I think it is reasonable to expect one more rally before this b-wave completes.Of course, should all 3 charts break below their recent lows, then I have to assume the c-wave is already in progress, especially since we have hit the minimum targets for this b-wave in both the GC and GDX charts, but we have fallen short in silver.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Extreme And Dangerously So

To call this move in gold now “extreme” is beyond an understatement.  Moreover, not only did we get the spike out of the channel in continuation of this parabola, but it has even accelerated further, which now places us in what I believe to be a dangerous environment.  These types of moves usually end with a VERY strong reversal and drop to the region from which this diagonal began.With regard to the wave structure in gold, I am seeing this as a very extended wave v of the c-wave of within the 5th wave of the ending diagonal, which you can see on the 60-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Late Cycle Action - Market Analysis for Jan 21st, 2026

As I have outlined many times before, the gold and mining stock market bottomed at the end of 2015, and we have since been involved in a 10+ year bull market in gold and GDX. While silver bottomed later, it has caught up rather well, as is typical of silver, and all the charts seem to be suggesting this is late cycle action.Of course, there still could be another 4-5 to still be seen, which is my alternative count in silver and gold, but my primary count in GDX.  But, we have to recognize that this is likely an auspicious time to be harvesting profits we have earned over the last 10 years.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Short Update - Market Analysis for Jan 15th, 2026

I am putting out a short update since I am absolutely exhausted from my travel to Israel today.In gold, we now have enough waves to consider this rally as having topped.  Yet, we have not seen the usual hallmark of an ending diagonal completion, wherein it spikes through the trend channel followed by a stronger reversal back into it to start its decline.  So, until we actually see a sustained break down below 4545, I still have to leave that door open.Silver has more than enough waves in place as well.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Coloring Between The Lines

With the market just meandering between resistance and support, there really is not a lot I can add to the analysis right now.  Support remains at 6900SPX, and resistance is clearly the pivot. My primary is looking higher for now, especially as long as we holding over 6900SPX support.  The next target is delineated by the target box for wave iii in the 7100-7127SPX region.  Should we reach that target, support will be raised to the 7010-7040SPX region.And, of course, if the market breaks 6900SPX support, a follow through below 6824SPX would make it likely that a larger degree top has been struck, with confirmation coming on a break down below 6720SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Not Much More To Add

Today’s action really has not moved the needle much in terms of the analysis.  The only real addition that I can make is to tighten the support up a bit.  With the drop today, I will now use today’s low as the smaller degree support.  So, as long as the market remains over the low struck in the overnight ES session, we can be looking higher over the coming week or two.Of course, should the market break down below the overnight session low, and follow through below 6900SPX, that would give us a much higher probability in the purple count noted on the 5-minute SPX chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Staying Objective - Market Analysis for Jan 8th, 2026

I warned yesterday that, even though the market has extended beyond reason and well beyond any norms, we still must stay objective and not assume we will immediately head into a bearish environment until support breaks.  So, along those lines, I am trying to identify a long set up while we are still over support.I am including an ES chart in this update because you cannot see this potential set up in the SPX.  As you can see from the attached 15 minute chart, there is potential for a leading diagonal for wave (i) of iii pointing us ultimately towards the 7150-7175SPX region if it triggers.  But, we do not even have the set up in place yet.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

The Messy Metals March Higher

While we caught a nice low a little over a week ago, the rally off that low was quite promising as a standard structure . . . until today.  But, as I was noting yesterday in my updates and in the trading room, something seemed “off” about the structure.  Now, the best I can get is an ending diagonal for wave 5.So, let’s look at the charts and see where we stand, as it is not simple, especially when we look at gold.In silver, the alternative we were tracking thus far was presented in yellow, and would provide a c-wave decline to complete a larger wave 4 structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago
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