Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Metals: Pre-Weekend Update

With the continued strength in the metals complex, it has to make us strongly consider that the bottom is already in place. So, let's discuss it.
by Avi Gilburt - 22 hours ago

Slowly Leaking Lower - Market Analysis for Aug 6th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Getting More Interesting - Market Analysis for Aug 5th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Bulls Are Seemingly Back In Control

After the market moved through the 7654SPX level, it was a strong sign that the bulls have taken back control. And, despite all the misgivings I have had with the yellow count, it seems I am forced to adopt a VERY shallow 2nd wave retracement once again.Currently, the bulls have control as long as they hold over the micro pivot I have outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart – which is now the wave iv of (iii) support, which coincides with the wave iv of (iii) support box I have noted on the 15-minute ES chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Explaining The Analysis - Market Analysis for Aug 3rd, 2026

Some of you are questioning why the 7580SPX level was so important to my analysis, and why a break of that region – even by a point – was so key in my work.Well, first, one of the structures we were tracking was a i-ii downside set up. However, that set up fully invalidates when the market moves even one penny beyond the start of wave i. You see, that is one of the few rules that are set in stone in Elliott Wave analysis. A 2nd wave can never retrace more than the start of wave i, at which time, the structure invalidates.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Morning Update - Market Analysis for Aug 3rd, 2026

As we just broke the 7580SPX resistance region, we have no bearish set ups in place any more.  But, I still want to address how I am now approaching this region.First, the misgivings that I have with the yellow count do not go away.  But, needless to say, taking out 7580SPX has caused the probability for the bullish potential to increase.  Yet, I still have many questions about its potential due to the issues I have outlined in the past few weeks.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

I Have To Remain Objective

Despite all the issues I have outlined with the yellow count over these last several weeks, we have seen something today that is forcing me to be tracking it on the chart a bit more closely now.With the rally in the futures off the overnight low, I can now count a 5-wave structure but ONLY AS A LEADING DIAGONAL, which I do not view as highly trustworthy in and of itself. In other words, while there is some potential that this is a 5-wave rally, I think it is quite reasonable to also view this as a 3-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Potential Break of Triangle

I am sending this update out due to the action we saw last night, wherein the futures seem to have invalidated the triangle count.  However, while the futures have now invalidated the triangle count, the SPX has not.  But, due to the futures invalidation, I have added the ending diagonal count to the 60-minute SPX chart, as that is starting to look a bit more likely with the futures invalidation.What this chart now shows is that 7480SPX is our resistance.  That is what I would view as the wave ii in this ending diagonal.  That now places this bounce in the overnight action as the b-wave in wave iii, with the wave iii target being the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sure Looks Like A Triangle

Unfortunately, there has been nothing to really move the needle in metals, as we have been going sideways now for the last five weeks. But, the one thing that I can add is that gold looks like an almost completed triangle.As you can see from the attached 60-minute gold chart, we seem to be working on the e-wave of that triangle, which can push higher one more time. So, the parameters seem to be rather clear. A break of 4023 (take note I am on the December contract now) would suggest we are in a 5th wave down.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Will The Fed Be Our Catalyst Tomorrow?

The market is simply meandering between support and resistance, and has yet to commit. So, I will simply review quickly the options before us.My primary count has us in a (b) wave triangle, which, when complete, will resolve with a drop lower to the support box below in a (c) wave. Within that triangle, I am still questioning whether the d-wave is done. But, should we move through the 7480SPX region, then we are likely completing the e-wave of that triangle.As long as we remain below 7480SPX, then we may still be in the d-wave of that triangle. But, as noted yesterday, we must remain over the b-wave low of 7294SPX to maintain the triangle count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

A Lesson In Triangles

One of the lessons I have learned through the years is that a triangle is not truly a triangle until it actually completes. There are a number of ways one can count a corrective structure, and a triangle is just one way. So, while this is looking like we are trying to form a triangle at this time, it can always invalidate and morph into something else. In fact, I have outlined over the weekend how this can still take us lower in a more direct fashion.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Don’t Bank On It: A Nationwide Digital Bank

In this series, we focus on the existential issues found on one specific bank’s balance sheet. We also challenge readers to figure out which bank we are covering in each article. Our third highlighted bank is a publicly listed U.S. bank with roughly $30B in assets. It is a nationwide digital bank, so it is not confined to a traditional branch footprint. It offers deposits and loans across the country through online and mobile channels, as well as affinity partners.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Is A Lower Low Out Of The Question Now?

Well, to answer the question in the title, I would say “no,” but the action we are seeing in GDX has made it more likely since we have broken through 77.So, let’s start with GDX. In order for us to see a lower low, I had to come up with a VERY creative count. And, when I say a “very creative count,” it means it is not something I would be trading aggressively. Rather, it simply means that if we are blessed with a lower low you would simply add more positions to the long-side.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

What Is Your Goal With Elliott Wave Analysis?

While the goal is to increase your investment account, the wise investor approaches the attainment of that goal with a strong risk management plan in place. We are here in our little place in the world utilizing Elliott Wave analysis as a strong tool towards meeting those investing goals. But, in order to do so, you must understand what Elliott Wave analysis is and what it is not.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Truncated Bottoms - Market Analysis for Jul 16th, 2026

I would probably state that truncated bottoms in EW structures are not reliable in the same way that I view leading diagonals as being unreliable. But, as of now, there is some potential that this could be seen in the metals complex. And, yes, I have seen this before in metals.But, if you have been reading what I have been saying of late, then you know my preference is to be layering into positions down here. I am personally still leaving dry powder for lower lows, as they complete their patterns more often than not.In gold and silver, we are seeing the potential for those truncated bottoms.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Another Bounce Before Final Lows?

With the downside follow through, and GDX seeing a lower low just under 72, there is some potential that this correction could be completing sooner rather than later. But, for now, I still think we go lower and it could take a bit more time to get there as we could conceivably see one more loop higher before lower lows are struck.So, let’s look at GDX first. The first point I want to note is that we came within less than a dollar of the ideal 64-71 target in GDX, as the market struck a low of 71.89 on this decline. Moreover, I want to note the very nice positive divergences we are seeing on the daily MACD as well.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Not Much To Add To Metals Analysis

With the market simply meandering back and forth near the lows there really is not much more for me to add.  My primary view I still expecting lower lows.Should something occur in the coming days before I need to do the weekend update I will do another mid-week update since there is nothing for me to really add at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Likely Downside Still To Come – But, Which Path?

With the market pushing a bit higher today, I have taken off the 1-2, i-ii structure, and instead, have moved to a 1-2 structure in an ending diagonal for the (c) wave, with us still working on the wave 2.The alternative is still the yellow count, for which I have added a resistance box at the .764-1.00 extensions, wherein the c-wave in the yellow (b) would be equal to .765-1.00 the size of the (a) wave.What these two facts suggest is that the next 150 points overhead (as the alternative (b) has the 1.00 extension in the 7650SPX region) represents a lot of risk.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Don’t Bank On It: Mid-Atlantic Regional Bank

With this article, we continue our new series, “Don’t Bank On It,” which we intend to write for the foreseeable future. For those of you who have been following our public banking articles, you know that we have been highlighting the major existential issues found on many bank balance sheets today. In this series, we will highlight existential issues found on a specific bank’s balance sheet. But we are also challenging readers to figure out which bank we are covering in each article.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

An Exercise In Patience

With the manner in which the market has been moving back and forth in a corrective structure this last week or so has certainly provided us with an exercise in patience, especially since it has not yet tipped its hand as to how this correction will complete.And, if you noticed, I am speaking of it as a “correction” for now because there is no indication that a major top has yet been struck.  We have no clear sign YET that a major ending diagonal structure has completed, so I have to start leaning a bit more towards the blue count at this time.But, even so, I still have no completed corrective structure for even a blue wave 2.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Layering In As We Speak

With the metals approaching our initial target zones to mark the end of this correction which began in January, I have personally now deployed approximately 50% of the capital I have designated for buying mining stocks.   And, if I may remind you, our MMA analysts have put out a buying list of individual mining stocks earlier this week.  So, let’s look at each of the charts individually.  Starting with silver, as I have said, I am going to leave the count I have noted on the 144-minute chart, which points to this only completing the wave 3 in the final 5-wave structure within this c-wave.  That means my primary analysis expects another 4-5 before this completes.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Next Buying Opportunity Approaching In Mining Stocks Looks Better Than Gold And Silver

Some of you were quite upset with me after an interview I did with KITCO in December of 2025. In that interview, I noted that metals were entering the final segment of their parabolic blow-off rallies and 2026 will likely usher in a sizeable correction.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Trying To Make It More Reliable

As I outlined over the weekend, the potential 1-2 downside structure was not terribly reliable due to the wave 1 being a potential leading diagonal.  And, as I have noted many times before, leading diagonals are not reliable since they resemble corrective structures and often invalidate as leading diagonals.Therefore, we wanted to wait for another 5-wave decline to signal a 1-2, i-ii structure is developing.   With today’s decline, have that potential.  Ideally, I would much prefer a lower low for a better wave i of wave 3, but a corrective bounce at this time could provide us with a nicer set up for this 1-2, i-ii downside set up.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Don’t Bank On It

In this new series of articles entitled “Don’t Bank On It,” we are going to highlight existential issues found on a specific bank’s balance sheet. But, we are challenging readers to figure out which bank we are highlighting in the specific article.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Trying To Keep It Simple

With the move down from this week’s high not counting well as a standard Fibonacci Pinball structure, it leaves us with the potential that the initial move lower was a leading diagonal for wave 1 of the (c) wave.  And, assuming this is the correct count, that makes today’s bounce a wave 2.This is where I add my usual warning about leading diagonals not being strong trading cues, as they can just as easily be a corrective structure.  It is for this reason that I seek confirmation with a clear 5-wave decline for wave i of 3 to make this structure a much higher probability in following through to the downside.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago
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