Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Bounce In Progress - Market Analysis for Oct 13th, 2025

After being so stretched to the downside in Friday’s decline, it was not hard to expect a bounce to develop early this week.  But, the question with then be how the market pulls back from this bounce?Well, thus far, the pullback has been corrective.  And as I noted in the weekend update, until the market provides to us an indication that it will continue lower, we are forced to continue looking higher.Another wrinkle in our charts is that the ES dropped a bit further than the SPX, which does cause a bit of complication.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Hovering For The Last Week

Over the last week the SPX has been hovering and generally holding the 6700SPX region.  Right now, that is an initial signal level for me.  Until we break that support, the upside still has potential up towards the next larger degree Fib level in the 6830 region.   However, should the market first break the 6700SPX support, then it finally can open the door to more of a pullback.  Of course, the 6550 level is going to be the tougher nut to crack.  But, should we see follow through below that, then we will have a date with the next all-important support in the 6212-6360SPX region.  As I noted in an alert this morning:“Please keep your eyes on the big picture.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Largest Single Day Decline Since Rally Began

Today gold has experienced the largest single day decline since this rally began.  The question of course is if this is the wave iv in blue or if we have finally begun a larger degree correction for wave (4)?As I am writing this update, the market is approaching the top of the support box for the alt iv.   That is the 3930 region.  We will have to watch this action very carefully in the coming days.  As long as all bounces are corrective, we can maintain a reasonable expectation for at least one more decline.  That means we can view this as an a-wave decline today, with the expectation of a b-wave corrective bounce.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Quick Note On Bigger Picture

For years, we have been expecting silver and GDX to provide a catch up move.  And, now they are there.  In fact, all charts are now pointing to only one 4th and 5th wave left before this cycle is likely completed.Today, silver seems to be breaking out in the 5th smaller degree wave which will likely complete wave (3) in its long term cycle.  Gold is past that, but is now trying to complete its wave (3) in its final 5th, and GDX seems aligned with silver.  So, I still very much think it is reasonable to expect a larger degree 4th wave still to come across the board.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Switching Gears A Little – But, Does Not Change Bigger Picture

The one thing I am doing right now is I am taking off the b-wave potential on this rally, and simply calling it an extension in the 3rd wave in both GLD/GC and GDX.  But, in the bigger picture, that really does not change much, as it still has me expecting a larger degree 4th wave, with a 5th wave thereafter yet to come.In GDX, our initial support now is in the 68 region, and we will need to break below that support to suggest that a larger degree 4th wave is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Quick Metals Update - Market Analysis for Oct 6th, 2025

Since I will not be here for the next two days, I wanted to post a quick update on metals.First, with silver hitting a higher high, I have adjusted the count as per the outline in the weekend analysis:"With the market pushing higher in silver, I have added the alternative that 4 is done.  Again, I do not see this as a high probability.  But, we have to at least know where we have to shift into this path.If the market only provides us a corrective pullback in the coming days, and then breaks back out over the high we strike in this move then that likely puts us in wave (3) of 5 of (3).
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

While Initial Target Achieved, No Signs Of A Top YET

While the market has struck the ideal target on our ES chart, it has not provided any downside follow through from Friday’s strong reaction from the ideal target level.  So, without the typical reaction we see when a diagonal completes, it suggests that the diagonal has not indeed completed yet.So, in the near term, the market can still grind higher into the resistance box on the 15-minute ES chart.   But, please do realize that should the market break down below the wave 4 low on that chart in the 6680ES region, that is an initial signal that a near term top has been struck.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is It Finally Pullback Time?

Needless to say, we are overdue for pullback time.  And, the best evidence I have of that is in silver.With the market making it clear that it is completing wave 3 of (3), the micro count in that move still suggested we had a bit higher to reach before wave 3 was complete. At this time, I can say that almost all the squiggles are now in place to consider that count as complete.  But, as we know, the metals have ralied quite strongly, and we need some confirmatory evidence that we have indeed completed wave 3 and are in progress within wave 4.So, I have added two signal levels on the 8-minute silver chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Floor Is Creaking

As I write this, the market is seemingly making an attempt to break down towards the 6550SPX region next.   I have added a 1-2 count on the 5-minute SPX chart to suggest that the c-wave down has indeed begun.  But, with all the overlap we have seen today, it is hard to yet determine if wave 2 is complete.  There is still potential that the market may try to rally one more time to complete the wave 2.The main point remains the same though:  As long as yesterday’s high is respected, I still believe that the preponderance of the evidence is pointing lower.  And, breaking down below 6604SPX will make this a much higher probability.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Step By Step Analysis

I am going to walk you through my thought process, so you can understand why I am coming to my conclusion today.  The market drifted a bit higher today, and has moved beyond the resistance noted on the ES chart.   However, it stopped right at the 1.00 extension off last week’s low, which ordinarily is indicative of an (a)(b)(c) rally.  This supports a b-wave primary count, with an expectation of a c-wave decline to begin.Moreover, if the market had intentions on rallying higher in the ending diagonal for the c-wave of v, the path shown on the 15-minute ES chart, then wave 3 in an ending diagonal usually targets the 1.236-1.382 extension of waves 1-2.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Can We Still Try For Higher?

I am putting this update out a little earlier than normal, since we are just seemingly starting the bounce off today’s low.With the market hitting the bottom of my target box on the SPX, it did not even strike the bottom of the target box on the ES before we started to pullback.  And, while there is no question about how extended this market is, there is also no question that it has yet to break a meaningful support level yet.  Therefore, I still have to keep an eye on the potential for pushing higher one more time to get to the target box on both the ES and SPX as long as we remain over wave iv.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Could Be The Start

Clearly, the metals complex has been stretched beyond our generally followed standards.  Yet, I still have no way to view a reasonable 4th wave as being in place in both GDX or gold.  So, for this reason, I am still very much expecting more of a 4th wave to be seen in the coming weeks and months.  But, in the meantime, we have to determine when that pullback has begun.  In GDX, I would still need to see a sustained break-down below the 66 region.  Thus far, I have no clear indications the decline has is taking shape as a 5-wave event, which would signal the start of the c-wave down.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Competing Micro Counts - Market Analysis for Sep 22nd, 2025

With the market moving higher this week as we generally expected from the weekend analysis, we have two competing wave counts into this rally.First, when we scrub the ES chart, we have seen quite a bit of overlap since the a-wave topped.  So, I am surmising that we have a running triangle for the b-wave, as shown.  This is not a common pattern, but definitely no where near as uncommon as the w-x-y with a y-wave triangle with which I am struggling in gold. But, it seems to make the most sense for the b-wave in the ES.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Setting Up For More Upside

With the market holding over support yesterday, it did disappoint me in that it did not provide us with the typical overlap of waves i and iv within a diagonal, as it came up a few points short of the support box (which begins at the top of wave i). So, this provided a teachable moment for me today, as I outlined the following:“I have added some "color" to the chart for the alternative.  When a main wave - such as wave iii in this case - does not reach its ideal target, sometimes we see the corrective b-wave in the ensuing correction strike the target that was missed.  That is my alternative.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Next Few Weeks Are Key In Metals

While there is potential that silver has seen a near term top, GDX may still have one more push higher, and gold is kinda in between these two potentials.Starting with silver, while the upside really does look incomplete at the last high, I have to recognize the potential that it may have topped in a wave (i) pursuant to the count I am tracking on the 144-minute chart.  But, we will still need a break down below the 41 level to make this a higher probability.  For now, I have added a proposed path for the coming weeks.  Clearly, I will adjust it as we get more information. But, as long as we remain below 44.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Another Diagonal - Market Analysis for Sep 16th, 2025

I cannot ever remember a time where I have seen so many diagonals within diagonals as compared to what we are seeing today in the SPX.  And, the current structure seems to want to push even higher with a bigger diagonal, as I outlined recently.With the market moving through the resistance noted in the futures, I am forced to assume that this last 5-wave structure is taking shape as a larger diagonal, as outlined in the 15-minute futures chart.  This means that we would need to break down below the wave ii in the 6508ES region in order to invalidate this potential.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Respecting Resistance, But May Not Be For Much Longer

As I wrote the in weekend update, as long as the market respects the 1.00 extension in ES around the 6680ES region, then we can consider this 5th wave as completed.  That means that we “should” see the market turn down hard to signal a diagonal has completed before a break out through 6680ES.However, this morning, the market ran up to that resistance, hit its head on that resistance a number of times, but has yet to indicate that a diagonal has completed.  It seems that the market is simply consolidating below resistance, which often means it is will attempt to break out through that resistance.So, the parameters remain the same.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Next Target Reached - Market Analysis for Sep 11th, 2025

Today, the market has now reached the target we set once the market made it clear it was heading to new all-time highs last week. And, as you can see from the attached 5-minute SPX chart, we have reached the upper portion of the larger degree target box, which is where I was calculating this current extension was pointing us towards.But, just because we have struck a target does not necessarily mean the market is going to stop.   We have seen some ridiculous extensions these last several months, which really reminds me of the early 2020 time period.  So, just because the market has reached our target does not mean it is time to short.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Nothing Goes Up Forever

This has indeed been a strong rally in gold these last few weeks. And, whether the 4th wave is done will likely be determined by the nature of the next pullback. Until such time, I have strong doubts as to whether it has indeed completed.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Fast Move To Resistance

Before we could blink, the market is already at the resistance region I outlined yesterday when we were at the lows.  So, the question now is if the market can follow through and begin to break support?Based upon the high struck today, we could develop a 5-wave decline to suggest that the c-wave down has begun.  We will need to see a 5-wave decline taking us to 6400SPX or lower to provide us with wave i of a c-wave or 3rd wave down.  Until that happens, no one should view a break of support as becoming a higher probability.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

My Path Forward In Metals

For those that have followed my work in metals through the years, you would know that we have caught just about every major turn in the charts for many years.  And, that is because we follow the structure of the market very closely, as well as apply the standards that have worked for us for the 14 years I have been publishing my metals analysis publicly.Of late, I have been struggling with this action in gold, as while I have been expecting a correction since April, I have been seeking a standard 4th wave formation.   Yet, thus far, that is not what we have seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Downside Follow Through - Market Analysis for Sep 2nd, 2025

As outlined in the weekend update, the market was set up for further downside early this week.   Moreover, I also noted in the weekend update that we did not have any structure in place that projected more than a test of the important support below us on the 5-minute SPX chart.  And, that seems to be what we are getting today.Furthermore, the decline today seems to complete a potential initial 5-wave structure off last week’s high – which is easier to see from the ES chart. So, I am able to maintain the red count on the chart – at least for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Silver Break Out?

Silver has now taken out the resistance I noted over the weekend.  Of course, this now opens silver up to starting its run to back to its all time highs.  But it will clearly not be direct.  For now, I am still going to give the (b) wave just a bit more room.  But, if we take out this adjusted resistance box, then we are either in a big wave 1 of wave (3) or we are actually in wave 3 of (3).   Both counts are quite reasonable if we are already breaking out.  Therefore, the next buying opportunity I would look towards IF . . again, IF we are breaking out is wave 2 or wave 4.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Still Squeezing Higher To Target

As you can see on the 5-minute SPX chart, we are only a few points to the minimum target expectation.   But, in truth, the ideal target is actually higher in the 6528SPX region, which is the 1.764 extension of waves 1-2 in this ending diagonal which began earlier this month at 6212SPX.So, while we clearly do not have an initial indication of a top being struck, I am on the lookout for a reversal now.Today’s pullback low at 6467SPX is our micro support.  And, as long as we remain over that support, this can continue to squeeze higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Getting Back To Resistance

With this rally in the metals complex, all three charts are now approaching their resistance regions.   In GDX, not only are we striking the top of the long-term target box I placed on the daily chart last year, we are also approaching the smaller degree target box which is at the top of the larger target box.In support of this expectation, the NEM is also striking its 1.236 extension of waves 1-2 in this (c) wave, which is a typical target for a 3rd wave of an ending diagonal (up to as high as the 1.382 extension).  Therefore, I have now moved into my alternative count that I presented in yellow, and it is now my primary view.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago
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