Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Not Many Good Choices

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by Avi Gilburt - 4 hours ago

Metals Testing Resistance Too

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Pushing On Resistance - Market Analysis for Oct 27th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Expected Rally Seen, Do We Turn Down Now?

In my weekend update, I outlined my reasonable expectation for a rally to be seen this week, which should provide us with a 1-2 downside structure in our primary wave count. As I write this update, we have struck our wave 2 target/resistance box.The question now is if we begin another smaller degree 5-wave structure to fill in wave i of wave 3 (as outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart), or does the market push a bit higher into the resistance box?Well, I can make out a small 5-wave decline off today’s high. So, there is some potential for the wave i of 3 decline to have begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 22nd, 2026

I want to point out this morning that we now have the MINIMUM number of waves in place to consider this BIG correction complete in gold, as we have a minimum needed for wave (5).  Ideally, it does go to 4000 or a bit lower, but be aware it can bottom at any time from now.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Nothing Strongly Bullish YET

As I am starting to write this update a few minutes after midnight, I am seeing the metals attempting to break down in what I believe is the final push to the completion of this correction which began 10 months ago.Starting with gold, as you can see on the attached 13-minute chart, we are pressing against the pivot, which if broken, will likely then become resistance. At this point, I think the ideal target should take us just below 4000, but it can extend as deep as the 3800 region depending on how this progresses.While silver may have begun its drop to the 53.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Is Not Making This Easy

While the market did drop to the support box I outlined as my preference in yesterday’s update, and we did rally off that as a 3rd wave normally would, we stopped short of the minimum target for a wave iii of 3, which has added some complexity to the region within which we now find ourselves.So, I was debating whether I should wait until the end of the day to do the update. But, I decided I am going to lay out the paths before the end of the day, and that is what the rest of this update presents.Let’s start with the yellow count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Probabilities For Higher Highs Have Increased

If you read my analysis over the weekend, you would know that I was watching the rally off Friday’s low very carefully to see if we get any clues that the market may still try to reach higher highs, as per the blue alternative count.Most specifically, we were seeking a reasonable 5-wave structure off the low. And, the futures seem to have provided us with that structure in the after hours market into the overnight session on Sunday night. I have included that wave count on the 3-minute ES chart attached. Thereafter, we seem to be tracing out a corrective wave 2, which you can also see on the 3-minute ES chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 16th, 2026

Due to the size of this rally and the fact that it seems we only had 3 waves into the last low, I am going to modify the blue count to be a 4th wave with an expanded b-wave low.  That means this can still push a bit higher and still be wave (iv).  But, take note that if all we see is a corrective pullback from up here, and then break out through the 89.72 level, this opens the door in a big way to the correction having completed.  So, as long as we remain below 89.72, I am looking down for another decline.  If we get the i-ii and then break out over 89.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Oct 15th, 2026

I posted this in the room earlier, and wanted to put it out to everyone, since there is still some risk of which you should be aware:"I want to show you the one thing that is making me hold my hedges for now.  Until we get back over 89.72 and without a CLEAR 5 wave decline completion, there is potential for a (i)(ii) downside structure for the yellow count. So, there is still some risk here you need to be aware of.  Getting back over 89.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Are We Really Doing This Again?

With the depth of the pullback that ended this morning, it has made it VERY hard for me to accept that the market is going to attempt one more push higher in the c-wave outlined in the blue count on the 5-minute SPX chart. In fact, Mike and I had a conversation about this, and it really is a bit of a push.However, I was willing to adopt that count IF, and only IF, we saw a CLEAR 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure off the low for wave 1 of that c-wave. But, what we got today barely even qualifies as a leading diagonal, and I already do not view them as reliable trading cues.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

We Seem To Have An Answer

For many months now, I have been questioning whether the metals were actually going to get a lower low. The double bottom we got many months ago, followed by a 5-wave structure is what clouded the answer to that question. And, today, I believe we are getting an answer in silver and gold and it seems to be affirmative.Let’s start with silver. With this decline, I think it makes this the grey c-wave pointing us towards the 53.50 region to most likely scenario in my mind. Also, I have added the micro count along with a resistance box for the series of 4’s and 5’s I still think we need.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Moar Sideways - Market Analysis for Oct 13th, 2026

Yes, I continued to wait today for the market to give us some indication as to its intention on striking a higher high and into our target box. But, again, it has left me wanting for more clues.And, since I am only able to provide you that to which the market provides to me, unfortunately, I am unable to add anything to the prior analysis.But, I do want to point out something about IWM, which I posted earlier in the trading room. As you can see from the daily chart, we are at the bottom of the uptrend and hanging around the 200DMA.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

I Have Been Waiting

As you can see, this update is coming later than I usually write the afternoon updates. In fact, I have been waiting for some further market action which could direct us to the manner in which the market is going to resolve up here. But, alas, as we have been simply grinding up in the overnight session and back down in the daytime session, the market has not offered any further insight.So, I am going to offer my apologies as there is nothing further I am meaningfully able to add to the weekend analysis.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Could We Have Topped?

With the market pulling back even more today, the question asked in the title of this update has to be on the table at this time.As we have explained in the last two days, if we are dealing with a diagonal to the target overhead, then the 3rd wave came up short of the standard target. So, it clearly places into question whether this pullback is a wave 4 in that diagonal.However, should the market break down below the wave 2 (7700SPX) in that potential diagonal, then we completely invalidated that count as shown. And, it then brings to the forefront the question asked in the title.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Almost There? - Market Analysis for Oct 7th, 2026

With the expected decline today, the metals market is clearly closer to the completion of its correction. But, I just do not have sufficient evidence to suggest that it is done.While silver has now dropped to the top of the next target/support box on the 5-minute chart, the rally off that low really counts best as a 3-wave structure. And, since a c-wave or a wave iii would be a 5-wave event, we have no indication that the floor to this correction has been found and that a rally has begun.Gold has taken a step closer now to lower lows. What will be interesting is if gold gets a marginally lower low and silver does not.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Progressing Through The Rally

With the market continuing higher today, we have now moved towards the 1.00 extension of the move off the recent lows, and have turned down. I have added a support box for you to track for continuation higher.To remind you again, it seems likely that this rally is taking shape as an ending diagonal. And, within ending diagonals, wave 3 targets the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2. So, I am expecting that we will hold over support and rally to the wave 3 target in the 7870SPX region.OF course, should the market break down below support in an impulsive manner, then that will bring the alternative b-wave count to the forefront.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Still Not Complete - Market Analysis for Oct 5th, 2026

With the market pushing higher today, it has to force us to view another shallow wave 2 as having completed. If you look at the 5-minute SPX chart, you will see that I am now viewing us as being in wave 3 of the ending diagonal taking shape for the c-wave of wave (v).But, due to how shallow the potential wave 2 was, if forces me to extend our target for wave (v) just a bit higher. This makes the ideal target for this c-wave of wave (v) the 7920-7975SPX region.Also, I am leaving the alternative count as presented before – the potential bigger b-wave. But, the more this rallies, the less the probability of that potential.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Paths Clearing Up?

With today’s drop to lower lows during this pullback, I think the market is taking the ending diagonal path to complete the c-wave of the (y) wave in a bigger b-wave pullback. Yes, I know, this structure has gotten quite complex.But, even within this complex structure, the ideal path suggests one more low to the 7632-7643ES region. Let me explain.If this is indeed an ending diagonal for the c-wave of the (y) wave, today we bottomed at the 1.236 extension of waves i-ii in that structure, which is typical for wave iii in a diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Pressure Remains Down In Metals . . For Now

As of my writing this update just before 2PM on Wednesday, the pressure remains down in the metals complex. So, let’s look at each of the 3 charts individually.As we know, we have been trying to determine if this pullback is a 2nd wave (or even a b-wave when it comes to silver and gold), or whether we are going to see levels lower than seen this past summer before the next rally begins. And, the market has not yet made that clear.In GDX, I really have no evidence that the green wave (2) should be a strong wave count at this time.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Don’t Bank On It: An Unusually Concentrated Loan Book

Our next highlighted bank in our "Don't Bank On It" series is a publicly listed US regional bank with roughly $9B in assets and a concentrated New York operating footprint. The bank has one of the more unusual loan concentrations we have found among publicly traded US banks.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Slowly Leaking Lower - Market Analysis for Sep 29th, 2026

As the market is meandering down today, the pattern continues along its messy route. So much so, that I am not even posting an ES chart as the structure is too overlapping to come up with anything that is reasonable. So, for today, I am simply posting the SPX charts, as they seem cleaner.As I mentioned in yesterday’s update, I am forced to view the current structure as a (w)(x)(y) complex structure within this b-wave. And, within this structure, there are a number of calculations of wave relationship ratios which suggest that the .500-.618 retracement of the a-wave is a reasonable expectation for this b-wave pullback to hold as support.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Just Gets More Messy

As I said in my weekend update, I have been hoping for clarity. Yet, that is the last thing the market is providing to us at this time. Let me explain.Normally, when you have an (a)(b)(c) structure for a b-wave, the (c) wave takes shape as a standard 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure. And, within that 5-wave structure, waves 1, 3 and 5 divide in 5-wave structures themselves. This is what we call the fractal nature of the market, wherein movements are variably self-similar.Moreover, when a b-wave completes, and a c-wave begins, that is also usually a 5-wave standard Fibonacci Pinball structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 28th, 2026

Allow me to take a minute to explain the progression of my GDX analysis.  First, we are now at a 1.00 extension to the downside that MAY complete a bigger wave (2) at the .500 retracement with an (a)=(c) at the same location.  That is represented by the green wave (2).  BUT, we will need a CLEAR 5 wave rally through the pivot to support that.But, as long as all bounces are corrective and the pivot is respected, then this support at the .500 level will likely break and take us down to our next potential for a wave (2) low in the 77/78 region, which is the .764 retracement, which is represented by the blue count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 25th, 2026

While I really cannot glean much from the gold chart as it is too much of a mess to be reliable, both GDX and silver are saying that as long as we are below 68 in silver and below 98.35 in GDX, it may be advisable to take a more protective stance, as the potential for lower lows has grown. Should we see something different, I will alert you.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago
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