Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Stuck Between A Rock And Two Fibs

With the market pushing higher overnight, I outlined the potential that we could be seeing a very shallow 4th wave structure developing as a flat for the blue count. And, as I write this update, this is still a strong potential right now.With the market dropping from the 2nd strike of the recent high, this can easily count as an a-b-c structure, as outlined in blue on the attached 15-minute SPX chart, which is also presented on the 5-minute SPX chart.If this was really going to be the start of a larger c-wave decline, then the rally which topped in the early morning hours should not have exceeded the .

by Avi Gilburt - 19 hours ago

Grinding Below The All-Time High

This is yet another instance where logic is thrown out the window, if you are paying attention. Whereas everyone and their grandmother believed that the market was rallying last week due to the peace talks, one has to ask themselves the logical question as to why the market has not dropped strongly now that those peace talks have broken down? Well, the basic reason is that the market is not driven by logic. It is driven by emotion.Therefore, attempting to utilize logic for trading/investing is akin to trying to discuss logic to your spouse when they are being emotional.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Expanding Elliott Wave Analysis

This wave structure is so stretched right now – as we are approaching the 2.00 extension – that I am thinking about expanding the standard Elliott Wave analysis to include a wave 5.5 for this type of extension. (smile)So, as we approach the 2.00 extension for just this wave segment, it is clear that the wave count is quite full. But, no support has yet been broken. While the 60-minute MACD is still displaying the warning sign of a negative divergence and has begun to roll over already, we will need to break the 6940/50SPX minor support region to set our sights on the bigger support represented by the blue wave iv box on the 5-minute chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Unfortunately, Not Much To Add In Metals Analysis

I waited until this evening to write the update, hoping that I would glean further information if we got some real movement. But, alas, no such luck.With the amount of overlap in this rally off the recent lows in metals, there really is no high probability path to which I can point – other than ultimately lower. While the potential for this being a 4th wave is still just barely on the table, the purple count has clearly been rising in probability. And, in GDX, there really is no difference at this point between the two counts, other than the purple count should give us a clear 5-wave decline.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Has The Honey-Badger Returned?

I can’t remember the last time I saw this many heads being scratched as I did yesterday and today. The news is clearly that there is no peace agreement, yet the market has rallied over 2% during that time. In fact, it has rallied almost 3.5% off the overnight low struck on Sunday night, despite the news which was taken as something that should have been very negative for the market. And, now, the media, analysts and pundits are all engaging in forms of mental gymnastics to explain why the market has gone up so strongly despite such seemingly negative news in order to twist it into some uber-positive explanation for why the market is rallying so strongly.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

No Top Yet - Market Analysis for Apr 13th, 2026

As I outlined over the weekend, we would have needed to begin breaking support early this week in impulsive fashion in order to suggest a (b) wave top was in place. But, that is not what we have seen.Rather, the decline in the futures really seems to be a 3-wave event which can be counted in two ways. To be honest, I really like the yellow count on the 15-minute ES chart. That suggests that the overnight low was an a-wave of wave 4, this rally is a b-wave of wave 4, and a c-wave decline is yet to be seen.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Something Evil Is Raising Its Ugly Head

With the metals charts pushing just past their resistance, it is certainly raising the probability of the evil purple count. And, if you remember, this means that this rally will likely continue much further in the coming days and possibly weeks, only to set up a c-wave crash-like event to complete this larger a-b-c structure in the metals.The one that is starting to look more likely as this path is GDX. As far as gold is concerned, unless we see a 5-wave decline begin rather immediately, I may have to switch to this alternative over the coming weekend or early next week.Yet, silver can still easily be a wave 4 rally.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Competing Patterns - Market Analysis for Mar 30th, 2026

I always find it a challenge when we have one pattern playing out in the SPX and another in the futures. As I write this, the futures have struck the support I noted over the weekend at 6360ES, and have seen a large rebound off that low. However, the SPX pattern seemed incomplete, which is maybe why we are seeing the lower lows in SPX, whereas this may only be a corrective b-wave pullback in ES. And, that is how I have it analyzed on the various charts.Of course, this will apply ONLY if the futures can hold their overnight low.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

(a) Wave Seemingly Not Done

With the market unable to develop any real rally attempt for a c-wave, it has forced us into the perspective that the (a) wave has not yet completed. And, that suggests that we have a date with the 6360SPX support zone next. I now have that as my primary count.While the market can certainly drop to that region in a more direct fashion, it would not surprise me to see yet another twist in this action. You see, the initial rally off the recent lows could have been an a-wave in wave 4, with this pullback being a b-wave, followed by a c-wave rally.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Question Your Beliefs As To What Drives Markets

Most everyone seems to believe that the spike we got in the markets at the beginning of the week was because we were going to negotiate a deal with Iran to bring the war to an end. Today, Iran rejected the proposal we put on the table. So, why is the market still green . .

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Market’s Footing Is Getting Shaky

My thesis coming into this week was that we were completing an ending diagonal for the c-wave of the (a) wave in this current corrective pullback in SPX. Therefore, I was expecting a strong reversal, which should take us back to the region from which the diagonal began in a very swift move.While the week started out by following that perspective, the fact that we have stalled now for almost two full trading days is starting to get a bit concerning about follow through in this potential (b) wave bounce back towards the 6850-6900SPX region.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Metals Are Moving In The Shadows

It has been interesting watching the metals move of late, as almost all the action has taken place during after-hours. As an example, when gold struck its recent local bottom to what I am counting as wave 3, it happened in the overnight session. Then, yesterday, it took the market the entire day to set up a 1-2, i-ii pattern, and as soon as the market closed, silver and gold broke out in their 3rd waves.I even noted it in a post I made at 1PM:“The way this continually hesitates at the highs seems to suggest it may attempt a break out overnight. We will see. As long as we hold over the overnight low, this is pointing higher.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

War . . What Is Gold Good For?

****This is an article that will be published on KITCO and Yahoo Finance in the coming days*****For those that read the articles I published and the interviews I gave at the end of 2025, you would know that I was warning that this bullish metals cycle could be completing as we move into 2026. In fact, in an article I wrote for KITCO in late 2025 – which was picked up by a number of other sites – each and every commenter told me how I was absolutely wrong, and that this time is different. While both gold and silver did exceed my ideal targets, it is rather clear now that a cycle has come to an end as per our expectations.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Treading Water - Market Analysis for Mar 24th, 2026

There really is not much to add to the analysis at this time. We have been simply treading water within the b-wave support box on the ES chart. And, as long as this continues, then I have to look higher towards the c-wave target box overhead.Of course, if we break this support box, then it opens the door to the deeper (a) wave presented on the 60-minute SPX chart, labeled as the alt (a). And, until the market actually makes a decision, there is not much more for me to say.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

(b) Wave In Progress

Well, it seems we have seen that strong reversal we were expecting and it also was accompanied by news. So, this is rather typical and well in line with our expectations.Thus far, the rally seems to be corrective. Moreover, the a-wave within this (b) wave rally spiked just beyond the standard target for an a-wave in a corrective rally, which is the .382 retracement of the (a) wave decline. And, as I noted early in the day that the most likely expectation would be for the market to spend the rest of the day in a corrective b-wave pullback, things seem to be going as planned thus far.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Are Metals About To Whipsaw or Waterfall?

As I outlined over the weekend, gold was the clearest of the charts of late. And, I also noted that should we see a sustained break of the 5000 region, then we are likely next heading to the 4800 region which will be a VERY important point for the market.To explain again, thus far, we have dropped down to the 1.00 extension (4800 region) off the 1-2 downside set up we have been tracking. Normally, when the market bottoms at the 1.00 extension and begins an impulsive rally back up through the .618 extension (4983.50), it tells us that the market is not going to follow through on the downside set up, and that the decline was really a corrective a-b-c pullback.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Still Does Not Seem Done

Not much has changed in the wave count from yesterday. The rally into yesterday’s high seems to have been the (a) wave of the b-wave in the 5th wave of this ending diagonal, with the overnight action providing us a (b) wave pullback, and today’s rally being the (c) wave of the b-wave.Thus far we have come up to the .618 retrace of the a-wave decline, as you can see from the attached 15-minute ES chart. While this may be all we see, the (c) wave rally really looks incomplete, and can certainly make one more rally attempt towards the .763 retracement region. In fact, that .764 retracement region has confluence with an (a)=(c) ratio within this b-wave rally.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Unfinished Business - Market Analysis for Mar 16th, 2026

With the futures not making any lower lows yet, and understanding that a truncated ending diagonal is a rare occurrence, the greater probability seems to suggest that there is another lower low sitting out there for the ES, and hence, the SPX potentially as well. So, due to the size of today’s bounce, I am assuming that we are now within the b-wave bounce within the 5th wave of the ending diagonal that is taking shape for the c-wave of the larger degree (a) wave off the recent market highs (you can see the count clearer on the smaller degree charts).

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Same Bigger Picture View – But Mixed Micro Messages

While the bigger structure right now is pointing lower, the micro structure is still not wholly clear, and providing some very near term mixed messages. Allow me to explain.Starting with GDX, we seem to be working on a 1-2 decline in the c-wave. But, there is still a bit of a question in my mind as to whether the wave 2 is done, as we did not even reach the .382 retracement of the initial decline from the b-wave high. That is an unusually shallow 2nd wave retrace. So much so that a full 5-wave projection from the high this week points us to the 62 region in GDX, which is the 2.00 extension based upon the current 1-2 structure in place.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Rally Target Reached - Market Analysis for Mar 10th, 2026

With the rally off the Sunday night low now reaching the target box I provided yesterday afternoon, we have just about reached an a=c point off the low. I have it estimated on my SPX chart due to not having the low on this chart that was struck in the futures. So, the numbers may not be exact.Based upon our Fibonacci Pinball structure, once the market reaches the 1.00 extension, the .618 extension becomes our support. That is generally over the 6780SPX region. So, a break down below that level will be our initial indication that wave 5 may be in progress.I want to also repost something I posted this afternoon as an alert:“We are now approaching the 1.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Very Controlled Market Decline

With the market finally breaking support, it did not fall away as I would have normally expected. It tells me that the buy-the-dip crowd is still very much alive and well. But, that does not change my view of the larger structure.The break of the support makes it much more likely that we are within the larger degree pullback, for which I have been expecting for some time. But, with the continued up/down action, it seems to suggest the c-wave of this (a) wave pullback is taking shape as an ending diagonal.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Downside Set Up - Market Analysis for Mar 4th, 2026

While I am showing a potential 1-2, i-ii in both gold and silver, I have to note there are a number of issues with it. First, I cannot say that the wave i structure is the cleanest of 5-wave structures. Second, normally, wave i of 3 will target AT LEAST the .382 extension of waves 1-2, whereas they normally target the .618 extension of waves 1-2. And, what I have labeled as wave i of 3 has not even come close to the .382 extension. So, needless to say, I really need a bit more evidence to make this immediate downside set up a much higher probability. The other issue I have is that I really have no clear similar downside set up in GDX.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Tested, Yet Again - Market Analysis for Mar 3rd, 2026

I am not sure how many times it will take before a test of the 6720SPX support finally breaks it, but we had yet another today. And, thus far, the market has held yet again. Moreover, the rally off that low is initially taking shape as a 5-wave structure, which again forces me to place the yellow (b) wave at today’s low, with a reasonable expectation of a (c) wave rally again. So, while we wait for the market to provide a bit more clarity, I think this is a good time to review our Fibonacci Pinball structure to show how it differentiates between various options.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Quick Mid-Day Update

The SPX is now pressing hard on the 6720SPX support. Should this break in a sustained fashion, the trap door opens and this can easily project down to the bottom of the (a) wave support box in the 6200-6400SPX region. As it continues to develop, we will track the micro structure on the ES chart, with a much larger i-ii downside potential now.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Be On The Lookout

As I write this update, gold seems to be a relatively clear 3-wave pullback, and silver is questionable as to whether it is 3 or 5. You see, what would count as a 5th wave in silver is really so large it can also be considered a c-wave, which would then count it as a corrective a-b-c pullback. So, where does that leave us?Well, without a CLEAR 5-wave decline, it tells us that the probability that the larger c-wave decline is not highly likely. And, we have to then seek other potential options.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

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Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

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