Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Explaining NVDA, Bitcoin And The Stock Market

There was a lot of investor hand-wringing and head-scratching experienced this past week.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Testing Support Again - Market Analysis for Nov 20th, 2025

The manner in which the market has been trading of late is more indicative of a top having been struck. When we broke this week’s pullback low today, it started to increase the probability that a high of sorts is now in place, and that 7000 is going to be put off for now, if not for many years to come. But, of course, we seek confirmation.Based upon the manner in which the market has been moving back and forth up here, I cannot say there is a clearly defined impulsive 5-wave structure having developed for a c-wave decline here.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Pressure Remains Down - Market Analysis for Nov 19th, 2025

I have to keep this update short as I just got back to my hotel and have to run out for a dinner meeting. While I can count both gold and GDX as a potential i-ii down in the continuation of their respective (c) waves down, silver would really count best with one more rally to complete a deeper wave 2. But, the main theme remains the same. As long as the various charts remain corrective below their respective (b) wave highs, I am expecting a (c) wave decline, which will be signaled by a follow through break down below the lows of wave 1.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Can Bears Push It Over The 6550SPX Line?

Today, price has spiked below the pivot. But, the action we are seeing after that spike is more of a "comeback" so far than it is a follow through. The market had a potential 1-2, i-ii downside set up that has developed, which should mean that a heart of a 3rd wave down should be in progress. That means that once the market breaks down below the pivot between the .618-764 extensions of waves 1-2, and drops to the 1.00 extension or lower, then the likelihood resides with the 3rd wave down. However, it must then remain below the pivot on the wave iv of 3 bounce in order to keep pressure down in wave v of 3.

by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Small Discrepancy Between Futures and Cash Market

Small Discrepancy Between Futures and Cash MarketWhen the futures display a different pattern than the SPX cash market, it does lead to some uncertainty. And, that is what I am seeing in the difference between the SPX and ES at this time. Allow me to explain.The overnight action in the ES last night provided us with a higher high, which does make the rally off last week’s low seem more like a 5-wave structure for wave 1 of the c-wave rally in green. However, the SPX does not have that additional move higher. It still remains below its resistance of 6774SPX . . for now.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

How To Better Trade The News To Profit In The Market

I can provide one word of advice to you regarding the title of this article, which is the same advice that President Biden provided to Iran over a year ago: DON’T!!

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Nov 14th, 2025

I have been warning that this region is treacherous, and it still is. There are several ways this can still resolve, but I really do not think an immediate run to higher highs is most likely. The question will be on how we go lower.As you know, once we broke the micro pivot the other day, I outlined the potential for the market to drop down to the 6550-80SPX region. And, that is still well within reasonable probabilities. I have added a path for that in purple on the 15-minute ES chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Treacherous - Market Analysis for Nov 13th, 2025

I am sending out the update early, as the initial path I had outlined has basically been invalidated. So, I wanted to outline what I am seeing right now. I want to start by noting that I am clearly not "bullish" in the bigger picture up here, nor am I buying every dip like there is no tomorrow. However, I have to note that the market has neither broken any major support levels, nor has it given us a strong indication that an ending diagonal has completed. Therefore, it forces me to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt at each potential opportunity.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

This Could Get Treacherous

Yesterday, I outlined a potential path that could take us towards the 7000 region with VERY shallow pullbacks. And, overnight, the market has made an attempt at following through with that path. But, with a break down below a micro pivot, we seem to have failed. This has now opened two paths of which I want you to be aware, and both are relatively treacherous.Should the market be able to maintain over the 6805SPX level, then we may be tracing out an ending diagonal for this c-wave, as shown on the attached 5-minute chart. Once completed, we will likely see a strong reversal, the extent of which can give us indications as to the degree of top we have struck.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

We Are At Yet Another Metals Inflection Point

I am sending this update out earlier than usual as I believe we are approaching an inflection point now in the metals complex.Based upon the last few week’s price action, it was not easy to maintain an expectation of a bigger (b) wave rally. However, we have now finally seen what I had wanted to see these last few weeks. And, now that we have, we are approaching a test for our primary count.As you know, our primary count had the initial decline in the complex as an (a) wave, with this rally being a (b) wave, which was structured as an a-b-c move higher.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Unstoppable Train - Market Analysis for Nov 11th, 2025

One way or another, the market seems to be signaling it wants to reach that 7000SPX milestone on this amazing rally off the April low. To see a rally like this is not terribly common (which is why I did not expect it), but this is what the market seems to be presenting us at this time. With the rally off last week’s low already approaching the .764 retracement of the prior decline, and the fact that the rally looks like a 5-wave move off that low, it makes it much more likely that we are going to head to higher highs off the low struck last week.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Intellectual Dishonesty When It Comes To Market

So many now claim that this rally is due to the resolution of the government shut down. So, let's look at the SPX chart and see if this is true.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Note Of Caution - Market Analysis for Nov 6th, 2025

As I was reviewing the metals charts this morning, I wanted to send out a note of caution before I left for the day. While my preference has been for a higher (b) wave bounce across the metals complex, I have noticed that both GDX and GC can be considered as completing a (b) wave triangle this morning. While I do not have the same potential in silver, it still is enough evidence of a potential completing a (b) wave that requires me to send out this note of caution.Should we see an impulsive break down in GDX below 68, in GC below 3935, and in silver below 47.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Overnight Low Important - Market Analysis for Nov 5th, 2025

As I am now traveling, I am gong to keep this week's metals update rather simple. And, also, due to the rally we have seen since the overnight low was struck, it lends to the simplified analysis.I am still seeking a c-wave rally to complete a larger (b) wave in the respective 4th waves of the various charts. As long as the overnight low is held on the next pullback across the charts, then I can view that c-wave rally as having begun. My preference is for a higher rally in silver relative to gold, and GDX may come somewhere in between.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

How Much Further Downside?

With the market remaining below the high struck yesterday, we completed the b-wave triangle, and have followed through with the downside expectation in the c-wave. The question now is if this decline is done?At this time, I am still unsure if this current decline has the dreaded one more lower low. But, even if we do see that lower low, the bigger picture remains the same. It still centers around the lack of evidence that a top has indeed been struck. We have no strong reversal indicating a diagonal has completed, nor have we broken support. In fact, this current decline is still holding the initial support region outlined on the ES chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Just Going Sideways - Market Analysis for Nov 3rd, 2025

When the market moves sideways for a period of time as we have now seen since Thursday, it forces us to consider a triangle is taking shape. And, the type of triangle this seems to be tracing out is a b-wave triangle.So, I can keep today’s analysis rather simple. As long as this morning’s high is respected, then I am viewing us as being in an (e) wave of a b-wave triangle. That basically means that as long as we remain below this morning’s high, pressure will be down and a c-wave can develop over the coming day or so which can test the lower end of the initial support region.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Can You Double Your Money With Silver?

The talk of the town in the metals complex has been focused on gold. But, I think silver has yet to see its final parabolic move.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Oct 30th, 2025

I want to reiterate in this update that my preference is still to see more of a "bounce" in the metals chart for a bigger and deeper (b) wave before we begin a (c) wave decline. However, the market has been developing potential signals that could suggest we go down sooner than currently expected. So, I wanted to send out a quick update.The most clear picture of a more immediate downside potential is in gold. Earlier today, I sent out the following Alert in the main room:"I am being VERY cautious in gold right now due to the other potential paths.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Getting A Bit More Complex

While the metals market provided us with another bounce, the structure of that bounce was not at all indicative of a standard c-wave rally, which would have completed a larger b-wave bounce. You see, c-waves are most often 5-wave structures. And, thus far, all we have seen is another 3-wave bounce. This leaves the door open for several paths.Let’s start with gold. As you know, I am trying to track a (b) wave bounce, which would set up a (c) wave decline. However, if we are going to see a (b) wave bounce taking us higher in the coming days, we are now at important support for a b-wave within that structure.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Market Testing Micro Support

I really do not have much to add to yesterday's analysis. But, today we did see a pullback towards the smaller degree uptrend line, as we are holding over the initial support box. So, as it stands as I write this update, nothing has broken. And, a VERY stretched market can continue to choose even higher levels to strike before we finally complete this very long uptrend. As I said in metals as we were striking the highs, you have to determine how much risk you want to take up here.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Simply Amazing - Market Analysis for Oct 28th, 2025

As I wrote earlier today:“I am truly astounded that we have been able to approach the 7000 region without more than a .236 retracement. It is truly amazing. But, it has done its job . . it has made people absolutely believe in the invincibility of the US equity market.”In fact, if you are given this larger degree structure without more than a .236 retracement the entire way up, 8 or 9 out of 10 times this would not likely be the result, in my humble opinion. That is why I view this as such an anomaly, as it is so rare to see this type of move.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Pushing Upside Targets - Market Analysis for Oct 27th, 2025

Over the weekend, I outlined the upside targets/resistance in the 6832-54SPX region. And, today’s gap up moved past that initial resistance region. But, on the 15-minute ES chart, we have been hitting our head on the 2.00 extension of waves (1)(2) in the ending diagonal structure I have been tracking of late. And, I still think this is a very reasonable interpretation.However, for this interpretation to bear fruit, it would mean a strong reversal below the wave (4) low should begin imminently. And, due to how incredibly stretched this rally has become off the April low without more than a .236 retracement, I have a hard time expecting even further gains.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Downside Being Seen, But, Weaker Than Expected

I was unable to write an update as I was at doctor appointments this morning. So, I am going to outline what I am seeing so you can understand my conclusions.While we did see a “bounce” last week, that bounce only went to the .382 retracement of the prior decline. While it is “possible” that this was all the (b) wave we are going to get, as shown by the alt (b) noted on the charts, this is clearly not my primary expectation. In fact, I still think it is reasonable to expect more of a bounce. Let me explain.To see a (b) wave that only retraces .

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Looking For A “Bounce”

We have seen quite the selloff in the metals complex. When the rubber band is stretched to an extreme in one direction, the snap back can be quite painful. And, I tried to warn quite vehemently about a potential for such a reversal, but too many were busy cheerleading.While I was able to identify the blow-off top occurring in real-time last week in gold, we are now down to the initial support regions on our various charts. In GC and GDX, we are now at the lower end of the upper support box. In silver, we almost struck the top of the major support box. And, thus far, all count best as 3-wave declines.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Why Do I Bother?

I can’t remember the last time we completed a solid 5-wave, standard Fibonacci Pinball, impulsive structure in the ES/SPX pointing up. So, I wonder why I even bothered trying to track one of late. But, needless to say, the decline below the pivot today has spoiled that pattern as well.At this time, we are left with a potential ending diagonal pointing us to one more higher high, or the c-wave decline. While I cannot count a solid 5-wave decline to strongly suggest the c-wave down has begun, it is still just as viable a path right now as the ending diagonal.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

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Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

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