Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Down, But Not Out . . YET

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by Avi Gilburt - 21 hours ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Nov 5th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Lack Of Alignment Causes Analytical Issues

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Approaching Next Resistance - Market Analysis for Nov 4th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Morning Update - Market Analysis for Nov 4th, 2026

I am not sure what to really say, but the ES filled in the final waves and was off to the races.  I am now likely forced to accept a truncated low in SPX in order to attempt to align these two paths.  The main point now is that as long as we remain OVER the low struck last night in ES, we are going to track a bullish path as our primary.  Should it fail, well, then we will have to strongly consider the red top-is-in count.  But, for now, the bears will have to prove that to us.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

The Issues In The Futures Continue

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by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Has The Next Bullish Uptrend Begun?

There is a lot to discuss in this evening update, so take your time when reading through it.First, even though the market has moved through initial resistance to suggest this bounce is more than a 4th wave, I cannot help but keeping that potential in the back of my mind, with another lower low to be seen to complete the c-wave down. But, in order for that to be the case, then the rally into today’s high would be an a-b-c structure wherein the c-wave is equal to .618 the size of the a-wave. But, that is relatively rare, so it forces me to assume that the bottom of the c-wave has indeed been struck.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 30th, 2026

Well, we FINALLY got this lower low in gold, and this can complete this entire decline now.  This now looks VERY full.  To confirm the bottom is in, we need to break out through the downtrend channel on the 60-minute chart, and then through the wave (4) should make it highly likely that we have begun the (b) wave.  Of course, if the rally begins in impulsive fashion, we will have considerations for the yellow count.  But, for now, I am expecting a corrective rally in 3-wave structures which is why we will need a break out over resistance for confirmation.In silver, while my minimum ideal target of 53.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Not Many Good Choices

We had a very interesting end to the day yesterday. While the SPX did not see an invalidation of its wave 2 in yellow, it certainly went deeper than the standards we normally see for a 2nd wave. And, this often portends a break of the set up. Yet, the SPX has still retained the set up.However, the ES – just after the market closed yesterday – spiked up and then spiked right back down. And, yes, the ES saw its immediate bearish set up invalidated through this action. However, there are a very small number of times I have seen in the past where an after-hours futures move was to be disregarded due to the lower volume after hours action.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Metals Testing Resistance Too

With the bounce we have seen in metals this week, they all seem to be testing their respective resistance regions.GDX right now is close to a potential invalidation point for the immediate decline path I have been tracking. But, close is not good enough. We need to see a 5-wave rally through the resistance of 84.80 with the 5-wave structure completing in the ellipse noted on the 8-minute chart to provide us with a potential wave (i) of wave i of (3). For now, we remain below resistance so that would still suggest a lower low.Silver and gold are also both below their respective resistances, so there is not a lot for me to add at the moment.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Pushing On Resistance - Market Analysis for Oct 27th, 2026

As I write this update, the SPX is certainly pushing on the top of our resistance box. And, if you remember, I am maintaining the primary count of the 1-2 to the downside as long as the market does not break out through the resistance box in a sustained manner.But, I also warned that this market has not been kind to short traders. That is why it is wise to wait for the market to provide to us a 5-wave decline to fill in wave i of wave 3 before making the assumption that the heart of a 3rd wave down in the yellow c-wave of wave ii is likely in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Expected Rally Seen, Do We Turn Down Now?

In my weekend update, I outlined my reasonable expectation for a rally to be seen this week, which should provide us with a 1-2 downside structure in our primary wave count. As I write this update, we have struck our wave 2 target/resistance box.The question now is if we begin another smaller degree 5-wave structure to fill in wave i of wave 3 (as outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart), or does the market push a bit higher into the resistance box?Well, I can make out a small 5-wave decline off today’s high. So, there is some potential for the wave i of 3 decline to have begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 22nd, 2026

I want to point out this morning that we now have the MINIMUM number of waves in place to consider this BIG correction complete in gold, as we have a minimum needed for wave (5).  Ideally, it does go to 4000 or a bit lower, but be aware it can bottom at any time from now.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Nothing Strongly Bullish YET

As I am starting to write this update a few minutes after midnight, I am seeing the metals attempting to break down in what I believe is the final push to the completion of this correction which began 10 months ago.Starting with gold, as you can see on the attached 13-minute chart, we are pressing against the pivot, which if broken, will likely then become resistance. At this point, I think the ideal target should take us just below 4000, but it can extend as deep as the 3800 region depending on how this progresses.While silver may have begun its drop to the 53.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Market Is Not Making This Easy

While the market did drop to the support box I outlined as my preference in yesterday’s update, and we did rally off that as a 3rd wave normally would, we stopped short of the minimum target for a wave iii of 3, which has added some complexity to the region within which we now find ourselves.So, I was debating whether I should wait until the end of the day to do the update. But, I decided I am going to lay out the paths before the end of the day, and that is what the rest of this update presents.Let’s start with the yellow count.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Probabilities For Higher Highs Have Increased

If you read my analysis over the weekend, you would know that I was watching the rally off Friday’s low very carefully to see if we get any clues that the market may still try to reach higher highs, as per the blue alternative count.Most specifically, we were seeking a reasonable 5-wave structure off the low. And, the futures seem to have provided us with that structure in the after hours market into the overnight session on Sunday night. I have included that wave count on the 3-minute ES chart attached. Thereafter, we seem to be tracing out a corrective wave 2, which you can also see on the 3-minute ES chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Oct 16th, 2026

Due to the size of this rally and the fact that it seems we only had 3 waves into the last low, I am going to modify the blue count to be a 4th wave with an expanded b-wave low.  That means this can still push a bit higher and still be wave (iv).  But, take note that if all we see is a corrective pullback from up here, and then break out through the 89.72 level, this opens the door in a big way to the correction having completed.  So, as long as we remain below 89.72, I am looking down for another decline.  If we get the i-ii and then break out over 89.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Oct 15th, 2026

I posted this in the room earlier, and wanted to put it out to everyone, since there is still some risk of which you should be aware:"I want to show you the one thing that is making me hold my hedges for now.  Until we get back over 89.72 and without a CLEAR 5 wave decline completion, there is potential for a (i)(ii) downside structure for the yellow count. So, there is still some risk here you need to be aware of.  Getting back over 89.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Are We Really Doing This Again?

With the depth of the pullback that ended this morning, it has made it VERY hard for me to accept that the market is going to attempt one more push higher in the c-wave outlined in the blue count on the 5-minute SPX chart. In fact, Mike and I had a conversation about this, and it really is a bit of a push.However, I was willing to adopt that count IF, and only IF, we saw a CLEAR 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure off the low for wave 1 of that c-wave. But, what we got today barely even qualifies as a leading diagonal, and I already do not view them as reliable trading cues.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

We Seem To Have An Answer

For many months now, I have been questioning whether the metals were actually going to get a lower low. The double bottom we got many months ago, followed by a 5-wave structure is what clouded the answer to that question. And, today, I believe we are getting an answer in silver and gold and it seems to be affirmative.Let’s start with silver. With this decline, I think it makes this the grey c-wave pointing us towards the 53.50 region to most likely scenario in my mind. Also, I have added the micro count along with a resistance box for the series of 4’s and 5’s I still think we need.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Moar Sideways - Market Analysis for Oct 13th, 2026

Yes, I continued to wait today for the market to give us some indication as to its intention on striking a higher high and into our target box. But, again, it has left me wanting for more clues.And, since I am only able to provide you that to which the market provides to me, unfortunately, I am unable to add anything to the prior analysis.But, I do want to point out something about IWM, which I posted earlier in the trading room. As you can see from the daily chart, we are at the bottom of the uptrend and hanging around the 200DMA.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

I Have Been Waiting

As you can see, this update is coming later than I usually write the afternoon updates. In fact, I have been waiting for some further market action which could direct us to the manner in which the market is going to resolve up here. But, alas, as we have been simply grinding up in the overnight session and back down in the daytime session, the market has not offered any further insight.So, I am going to offer my apologies as there is nothing further I am meaningfully able to add to the weekend analysis.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Could We Have Topped?

With the market pulling back even more today, the question asked in the title of this update has to be on the table at this time.As we have explained in the last two days, if we are dealing with a diagonal to the target overhead, then the 3rd wave came up short of the standard target. So, it clearly places into question whether this pullback is a wave 4 in that diagonal.However, should the market break down below the wave 2 (7700SPX) in that potential diagonal, then we completely invalidated that count as shown. And, it then brings to the forefront the question asked in the title.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Almost There? - Market Analysis for Oct 7th, 2026

With the expected decline today, the metals market is clearly closer to the completion of its correction. But, I just do not have sufficient evidence to suggest that it is done.While silver has now dropped to the top of the next target/support box on the 5-minute chart, the rally off that low really counts best as a 3-wave structure. And, since a c-wave or a wave iii would be a 5-wave event, we have no indication that the floor to this correction has been found and that a rally has begun.Gold has taken a step closer now to lower lows. What will be interesting is if gold gets a marginally lower low and silver does not.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Progressing Through The Rally

With the market continuing higher today, we have now moved towards the 1.00 extension of the move off the recent lows, and have turned down. I have added a support box for you to track for continuation higher.To remind you again, it seems likely that this rally is taking shape as an ending diagonal. And, within ending diagonals, wave 3 targets the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2. So, I am expecting that we will hold over support and rally to the wave 3 target in the 7870SPX region.OF course, should the market break down below support in an impulsive manner, then that will bring the alternative b-wave count to the forefront.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago
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