Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Slow Summer Day - Market Analysis for Aug 25th, 2025

The market seems to be meandering lower today, and it still very well holds within the expectations for a b-wave pullback.  While I MAY be able to classify today’s rally in the SPX as a leading diagonal (of course, which I do not see as a highly reliable cue), the futures look very corrective in this bounce. This leads me to the conclusion that we are in the midst of the b-wave pullback.So, as long as we remain below Friday’s high, I am going to maintain the expectation of a continued pullback into tomorrow.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 hours ago

What A Mess!

That title really conveys my frustration with these wave structures.  There is nothing that I would call high probability in the smaller degree simply because of the extreme overlapping structures with which we are being presented in the silver and gold charts.  In gold, I am still viewing the purple and green counts as the most likely potentials.  But, they both would still seemingly need a bigger bounce before any further downside is seen.  But, if we see a move lower in a more direct fashion, I would begin to view the yellow count with a bit higher probability.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Testing Support - Market Analysis for Aug 20th, 2025

With the follow-through this morning, into the support box, the market has now struck the ideal target for a 4th wave in an ending diagonal.  You see, in the great majority of ending diagonal structures, we see overlap within waves (1) and (4).  And, this morning, the market provided that overlap before it began its bounce back up into the afternoon.However, being a purist, I can count for one more lower low as long as the pivot box on the 15-minute ES chart holds as resistance.  But, clearly, we have enough waves in place now and have struck the ideal target to consider all of wave (4) as complete.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Some Movement, But Not Much Change In View

With the market moving lower today, we are getting closer to the support box outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.  And, as long as this support box is held, I am still looking for one more push higher before this 5-wave structure off the early August pullback low completes.  In the very micro structure, the 6420/25SPX region is micro-resistance.  As long as that resistance holds, then I would expect a test of the support box below us.  Through that micro-resistance, and we have an initial indication that wave (5) has potentially begun.Overall, I am still viewing this bigger structure as topping, and once we complete this wave (5), I will be seeking evidence of that potential.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Was The Market Even Open Today?

You really have to ask that question as it does not seem to have any life to it.  So, there really is not much for me to add to the analysis.  Yet, I have added a support box on the 5-minute SPX chart for a wave (4).  As long as we do not break below that support, then I am expecting one more rally to complete wave (5).  And, in the bigger picture, I am still looking for indications that a larger degree high has been struck.  Nothing changes in that regard.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is A Bear Market Even Possible?

My broader view on the S&P500 (SPX) is that we are coming to the conclusion of a rally, which can represent a major long-term top in the United States equity market. This would conclude an almost 100-year bull market which began at the bottom of the market crash of 1929. In fact, this could usher in a bear market that would rival the one seen in Japan, which lasted for well over a decade.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Gold Still In Corrective Mode

With gold following through to the downside in what seems like the (d) wave of a b-wave triangle (in purple), we are still well within the parameters of an ongoing wave [4].  In the micro structure, it does seem as though a higher of a bounce would be likely to complete the b-wave of that [d] wave, the main point is that as long as we remain below last week’s high, I am seeking a conclusion to this b-wave triangle as outlined on the 60-minute GC count.   Once that does complete, I will be looking for an initial 5-wave decline to make it likely that the c-wave down in wave (4) has begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Hitting Resistance - Market Analysis for Aug 12th, 2025

With the continuation move higher today, the market is now pushing on the all-time high struck in the futures market at the end of August.  Moreover, since the manner in which we have rallied off the 6212SPX low is rather corrective and overlapping, there is even potential we are striking an [a][b][c] conclusion to a rally, as I have outlined in the alternative blue count.   So, where this leaves us is maintaining a view higher towards the next target/resistance box on the 5-minute chart.  But, that structure, since it is overlapping, is most likely taking shape as a diagonal.   Therefore, the target for wave (3) is in the 1.236 extension of waves (1)(2), which is in the 6475SPX region.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Specific Micro-Path Higher Has Not Materialized

While the holding of support and rallying last week has certainly opened the door to the next higher targets (despite how long-in-the-tooth this rally already is), as I mentioned in the weekend update, the specific path higher is not at all clear.   You see, while the rally off last week’s test of support began with a potential impulsive rally, the movement since has been anything but.  This leaves us wanting for a structure within a potential 5th wave higher, as outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.One of the paths I am considering is presented on the attached 15-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

3rd Wave or B-wave? Both Have Same Outcome

With the GDX moving beyond my prior expectation, the question that is on everyone minds is what this means to the overall chart?   And, the basic answer is “not very much.”You see, either this rally is an expanded b-wave, or it is simply a continuation of the 3rd wave.  In both cases, we likely still see a sizeable decline before the 5th wave rally takes hold.  The main reason I am assuming that the 5th wave has not begun is because we have seen no consolidation that would be deep enough or large enough to be considered the wave 4.  Therefore, the most reasonable assumption is that this is either an expanded b-wave within wave 4, or wave 3 is simply extending.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Quick Point On Gold

As of now, we have 3 waves off the low struck in gold at the end of July.  However, we do not have 5 waves down, unless it morphs into a leading diagonal, which still needs a lower low off yesterday's high.  But, if gold pushes to another high in this rally off the low from the end of July, that would make this rally 5 waves up, and I would have to strongly reconsider further immediate downside.That then brings me to a question as to why we would have 5 waves up here.  And, I do not have a good answer as I still have no confidence that we have a completed bigger 4th wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

I Am Still Amazed ....

I am still amazed at how many of you try to follow the "economy" and indicators for the "economy.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

GDX Has A Lot Of Catching Up To Do

With silver leading to the downside of late, I am now tracking it as completed its wave v of (iii) of 3 in its c-wave down.  That would mean I am looking for a bounce in wave (iv) of 3 in the near term.  As you can see from the 8-minute chart, I have lowered resistance.  And, as long as the next bounce is corrective and respects resistance, I will be continuing to look lower in the coming days.  Another point I want to make about the silver action is that we can see in real time how the 5th waves are quite extended in the metals.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Yes, That Is Red You See

The first question you have to ask yourself is why are we red when such a YUGE deal with the EU was completed this morning?  And, it should remind you again that the market does not act as a mechanical system in the manner in which most always expect.  And, it gives me another opportunity to post the wise words of Bob Prechter from his seminal book The Socionomic Theory of Finance:“Observers’ job, as they see it, is simply to identify which external events caused whatever price changes occur.  When news seems to coincide sensibly with market movement, they presume a causal relationship.  When news doesn’t fit, they attempt to devise a cause-and-effect structure to make it fit.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Metals Are Getting People Very Bullish Again

Whenever I have questions about a chart, I will usually go back to the larger degree.  And, the larger degree in both GDX and GLD tell me that I have NO reliable way to consider wave 4 as complete, which means I have no reliable reason to believe wave 5 has begun.   So, despite everyone being so certain that we are starting a new major move in the complex, I am still struggling with that potential.Furthermore, since we know that 5th waves in metals are usually going to be parabolic and strong moves, it is HIGHLY likely they will begin with a standard 5-wave structure for their first wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Downside Setup Still Developing In Metals

For those that have been following my analysis, you would know that I have been expecting a downside move to complete this correction in the metals before the next and likely final rally completes this long-term bullish cycle.In both gold and GDX, I have been tracking a 1-2 downside structure for their respective c-waves to complete a larger degree 4th wave.  However, this 2nd waves I have been tracking has become quite unreliable, as it now relies on more of a w-x-y pattern than a standard a-b-c for a wave 2.  While I can technically maintain an a-b-c for wave 2 in GDX, I cannot say it is highly reliable since the top of its potential wave 2 last week.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Divergences Continue To Build

While I have pointed out divergences in the past, when a market does top, we may see the market continue to build divergences until it actually turns.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Metals Rally Added Complexity

As I warned in the weekend update, we needed to see a direct move lower in the complex early in the week to keep the count strongly in the c-wave down perspective.  Yet, when gold took out its Sunday night bounce high, I also warned that it would open the door to much greater complexity in our charts, including a potential b-wave triangle, and an ending diagonal for the c-wave down.  And, that is currently where we stand.In looking at the attached 60-minute GC chart, you will see I am outlining the potential ending diagonal structure for this c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Moving Support Up Again

With the market continuing to grind higher, it makes me more and more cautious the higher we go.  But, I assume you have gathered that from my analysis over these last few weeks.  Yet, as the market goes higher, it raises the support below us.  And, until that support is broken, we have no indication that any top has been struck, despite recognizing how stretched this rally has indeed become.So, with the action over the last 24 hours, I am moving our support up to the 6110SPX level.  We would need to break that support and follow through below 6080SPX to suggest a top has indeed finally been struck.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

100 Points Over Support

With the market seemingly rather quiet today, I want to remind you that we are still 100 points over the initial support I noted in the weekend update residing in the 6080-6095SPX region.  And, until the market takes that support out, the bulls are still fully in controlEven though I have noted that we are still well over support, I am going to highlight yet again that this is a very stretched and full count.  While a catalysts is certainly not necessary, I would suggest that you be ready for what can be a very aggressive reversal, as that is often seen when the market stretches one way or another.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Is That Our “Bounce” In Metals?

My main premise has been that we are likely within a 4th wave consolidation/pullback in gold and GDX and a 2nd wave in silver, and I am still very much of that opinion.   The question with which we have been grappling is whether the c-wave of that 4th wave in gold and GDX and the 2nd wave in silver has begun? For now, I am still of the opinion that it has.In both gold and GDX, we have what can be viewed as a 1-2, i-ii downside set up developing.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

How The Hell Is Gold Red During The War?

If I had told you that Israel and Iran went to war and escalated that war throughout this past week, I am sure you would have expected gold to have rallied quite strongly. Well, the truth is that gold ended the week lower than where it sat before the start of this war.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

This Market Action Is Unbelievable

If I had told you that Israel and Iran went to war and escalated that war throughout this past week, I am sure you would have expected the stock market to have taken a major hit. Well, the truth is that the market gapped down and opened approximately 35 points on Monday morning to around 6101SPX, and then closed the week 43 points down from the week’s open.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Are Metals Starting To Crack?

At this point in time, I am starting to see a bit more evidence that we may have a b-wave top in place in both GDX and GLD at this time.  While not the most clear and convincing evidence just yet, we may be starting the wave 1 down in their respective c-waves. While the respective 2nd waves in that wave 1 is quite shallow in both, it does leave some questions about that micro count.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago

Adding IWM Thoughts Today

No, I still have nothing to add to the SPX analysis.  But, based upon the fact that we have no clear 5-wave decline from the high thus far, the door is still open for tomorrow’s catalyst of the Fed rate decision to ignite one more rally before this wave tops. But, all parameters outlined in prior updates still very much apply.However, in the event that we have indeed topped, then I would be looking more towards the blue count, as we do not have a clear 5-wave decline off the high, as it is looks relatively clear as a 3-wave corrective decline.So, today, I am including the similar paths I see in IWM.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 months ago
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