Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Potential 5 Down - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2026

With GDX and gold both completing 5 waves up off the recent lows, we have two paths that the market can choose.  And, as I noted earlier this morning in an alert, we can clearly reduce the paths in GDX from three down to the final two.So, to remind you, the question on the table is whether we drop to lower lows in a more direct fashion, or whether we have one more rally in the purple count before we begin that drop.  And, our answer is going to be determined regarding whether the market pulls back in a 5-wave structure or a corrective one.Today, the market completed a 5-wave rally in both GDX and gold.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Patiently Waiting For The Metals To Tip Their Hand

I want to again reiterate that the greatest probability path in the larger degree (at least in my humble opinion) is that the metals charts I am tracking should see a lower low before we can begin considering the correction is completed.  However, the charts are still not strongly indicative as to whether we will see a bigger rally before we begin that drop, or if we are going to begin that decline phase to lower lows more imminently.Let’s start with the GDX.   As you can see, we have bounced to the resistance region for wave ii of 3 to the downside.  And, as long as today’s high holds, then that is a very reasonable wave count.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Something Is Still Missing

It does seem as though wave (iv) has completed, and we had the expected overlap into wave (i) that is normally seen during diagonals.  Since that time, I am viewing the rally today as the a-wave of wave (v).Therefore, we are still missing the b-wave pullback, followed by the c-wave of wave (v).  Again, remember that all the substructures within diagonals break down as 3-waves each, counted as a-b-c.So, my expectation is that we will soon begin a b-wave pullback, followed by a c-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Something Is Missing - Market Analysis for May 4th, 2026

In the weekend update, I outlined my expectation for us to be working on waves (iv)(v) early this week.   As of my writing this update, both the SPX and ES have seen overlap into wave (i), which is most common in diagonal structures.  Therefore, both can be considered complete in their wave (iv) pullback.The issue with diagonals is that all substructures are 3-waves.  So, any rally off a wave (iv) potential low would usually look indistinguishable from a corrective rally, as both would be 3-wave structures.  So, it is certainly well within reason to assume wave (iv) is done now that we have seen the usual overlap.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Weekly Wave: Tornado Warning For Markets

We have been in a Grand Supercycle bull market for over 200 years. And, within that, we have been within a Supercycle 3rd wave since 1932. You can see this in this 100+ year chart of the SPX. This long-term 3rd wave is what has fostered the bullish mantras of “buy the dip,” “do not time the market,” “always be invested,” and “the market always comes back.” And, this long-term bull market has done its job of convincing the masses that this cycle will not end and will continue unabated. But, markets are not linear and like everything within the natural course of life, these periods of progression are followed by periods of regression.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

5th Wave Seems To Be In Progress

As I was surmising of late, the rally off wave iv really seemed too small to mark a full 5th wave in this structure off the recent low.  And, as I am writing this update now, it seems that we are now in wave (iii) of wave v, but it is taking shape as an ending diagonal due to the obvious overlap we are seeing in the futures structure.Normally, the 3rd wave in a diagonal targets the 1.236 extension of waves (i)(ii), which, in this case, is the 7309ES region, as you can see on the attached 15-minute ES chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Another Spin On Evil

While GDX has been the cleanest of the paths over the last week or so, today’s action has placed more uncertainty around it.  While the bigger picture still strongly suggests lower levels will be seen before this correction is done, the fact that we have dropped this deep without an appropriate 2nd wave bounce if this is a c-wave decline adds a certain amount of complication to the chart which forces me to consider a different twist on the “evil” purple count.As you know, I have been expecting more of a bounce for a wave 2.  But, if the 3rd wave down in GDX has indeed begun, it would provide for a 2nd wave bounce that reached only a .
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Slowly Grinding Higher - Market Analysis for Apr 27th, 2026

The upside action has been waning of late as we are grinding higher to complete this 5th wave.   So, there really is not a lot to add to the analysis.   What is also interesting is that the SPX can be considered as completing this 5th wave imminently (or just a first wave in a more extended 5th wave), while the ES looks like it still has a bit further to go in completing an ending diagonal for this 5th wave.So, it leads us to one conclusion: We will need a break down below the wave iv low (7046.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Wild Action, But Bears Have Not Moved That Needle . . YET

Today, the market spiked and reversed the low struck earlier this week.  And, while it invalidated the “immediate” bullish potential in a 1-2 to the upside, I cannot say that it has moved the needle to providing a strong bearish option pointing us down towards the 6175-6300SPX region.  We are still way over standard support for a 4th wave – which is the top of the support box below on the 5-minute SPX chart (.382 retracement of wave iii) – and the decline has not really taken a clearly impulsive structure to the downside.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Probabilities Are Shifting - Market Analysis for Apr 22nd, 2026

I am putting this report out a bit earlier than normal as things have begun to swing a bit more towards the blue count.If I may remind you, that would mean that if we are to see a 5th wave rally in the coming days, then it would provide a 5-wave structure off the recent lows, which then opens the door to the blue c-wave rally seen on the daily chart pointing us to 8000 and potentially a bit higher.But, before I go into the bigger picture, I want to follow up on the analysis from yesterday.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Evil Is As Evil Does

First, I want to start this update by reiterating that I don’t think this correction is over.  Rather, I still think we see lower levels one way or another.  So, even though many are now looking at this as a new bullish leg in the metals, and have begun celebrating, with expectations of direct higher highs across the market, I am clearly not in that camp just yet.  The overlapping structures we are seeing across the complex strongly suggest that there is going to be further downside to be seen once this corrective bounce completes.Second, the “evil” purple count we have been tracking seems to have gotten even more convoluted.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Stuck Between A Rock And Two Fibs

With the market pushing higher overnight, I outlined the potential that we could be seeing a very shallow 4th wave structure developing as a flat for the blue count.  And, as I write this update, this is still a strong potential right now.With the market dropping from the 2nd strike of the recent high, this can easily count as an a-b-c structure, as outlined in blue on the attached 15-minute SPX chart, which is also presented on the 5-minute SPX chart.If this was really going to be the start of a larger c-wave decline, then the rally which topped in the early morning hours should not have exceeded the .
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Grinding Below The All-Time High

This is yet another instance where logic is thrown out the window, if you are paying attention.   Whereas everyone and their grandmother believed that the market was rallying last week due to the peace talks, one has to ask themselves the logical question as to why the market has not dropped strongly now that those peace talks have broken down?    Well, the basic reason is that the market is not driven by logic.  It is driven by emotion.Therefore, attempting to utilize logic for trading/investing is akin to trying to discuss logic to your spouse when they are being emotional.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Expanding Elliott Wave Analysis

This wave structure is so stretched right now – as we are approaching the 2.00 extension – that I am thinking about expanding the standard Elliott Wave analysis to include a wave 5.5 for this type of extension.  (smile)So, as we approach the 2.00 extension for just this wave segment, it is clear that the wave count is quite full.  But, no support has yet been broken.  While the 60-minute MACD is still displaying the warning sign of a negative divergence and has begun to roll over already, we will need to break the 6940/50SPX minor support region to set our sights on the bigger support represented by the blue wave iv box on the 5-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Unfortunately, Not Much To Add In Metals Analysis

I waited until this evening to write the update, hoping that I would glean further information if we got some real movement.  But, alas, no such luck.With the amount of overlap in this rally off the recent lows in metals, there really is no high probability path to which I can point – other than ultimately lower.  While the potential for this being a 4th wave is still just barely on the table, the purple count has clearly been rising in probability.  And, in GDX, there really is no difference at this point between the two counts, other than the purple count should give us a clear 5-wave decline.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Has The Honey-Badger Returned?

I can’t remember the last time I saw this many heads being scratched as I did yesterday and today.   The news is clearly that there is no peace agreement, yet the market has rallied over 2% during that time.  In fact, it has rallied almost 3.5% off the overnight low struck on Sunday night, despite the news which was taken as something that should have been very negative for the market.  And, now, the media, analysts and pundits are all engaging in forms of mental gymnastics to explain why the market has gone up so strongly despite such seemingly negative news in order to twist it into some uber-positive explanation for why the market is rallying so strongly.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

No Top Yet - Market Analysis for Apr 13th, 2026

As I outlined over the weekend, we would have needed to begin breaking support early this week in impulsive fashion in order to suggest a (b) wave top was in place.  But, that is not what we have seen.Rather, the decline in the futures really seems to be a 3-wave event which can be counted in two ways. To be honest, I really like the yellow count on the 15-minute ES chart.  That suggests that the overnight low was an a-wave of wave 4, this rally is a b-wave of wave 4, and a c-wave decline is yet to be seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Something Evil Is Raising Its Ugly Head

With the metals charts pushing just past their resistance, it is certainly raising the probability of the evil purple count.  And, if you remember, this means that this rally will likely continue much further in the coming days and possibly weeks, only to set up a c-wave crash-like event to complete this larger a-b-c structure in the metals.The one that is starting to look more likely as this path is GDX.  As far as gold is concerned, unless we see a 5-wave decline begin rather immediately, I may have to switch to this alternative over the coming weekend or early next week.Yet, silver can still easily be a wave 4 rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Competing Patterns - Market Analysis for Mar 30th, 2026

I always find it a challenge when we have one pattern playing out in the SPX and another in the futures.  As I write this, the futures have struck the support I noted over the weekend at 6360ES, and have seen a large rebound off that low.  However, the SPX pattern seemed incomplete, which is maybe why we are seeing the lower lows in SPX, whereas this may only be a corrective b-wave pullback in ES.  And, that is how I have it analyzed on the various charts.Of course, this will apply ONLY if the futures can hold their overnight low.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

(a) Wave Seemingly Not Done

With the market unable to develop any real rally attempt for a c-wave, it has forced us into the perspective that the (a) wave has not yet completed.  And, that suggests that we have a date with the 6360SPX support zone next.   I now have that as my primary count.While the market can certainly drop to that region in a more direct fashion, it would not surprise me to see yet another twist in this action.  You see, the initial rally off the recent lows could have been an a-wave in wave 4, with this pullback being a b-wave, followed by a c-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Question Your Beliefs As To What Drives Markets

Most everyone seems to believe that the spike we got in the markets at the beginning of the week was because we were going to negotiate a deal with Iran to bring the war to an end. Today, Iran rejected the proposal we put on the table. So, why is the market still green . .
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Market’s Footing Is Getting Shaky

My thesis coming into this week was that we were completing an ending diagonal for the c-wave of the (a) wave in this current corrective pullback in SPX.  Therefore, I was expecting a strong reversal, which should take us back to the region from which the diagonal began in a very swift move.While the week started out by following that perspective, the fact that we have stalled now for almost two full trading days is starting to get a bit concerning about follow through in this potential (b) wave bounce back towards the 6850-6900SPX region.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Metals Are Moving In The Shadows

It has been interesting watching the metals move of late, as almost all the action has taken place during after-hours.  As an example, when gold struck its recent local bottom to what I am counting as wave 3, it happened in the overnight session.   Then, yesterday, it took the market the entire day to set up a 1-2, i-ii pattern, and as soon as the market closed, silver and gold broke out in their 3rd waves.I even noted it in a post I made at 1PM:“The way this continually hesitates at the highs seems to suggest it may attempt a break out overnight.   We will see.  As long as we hold over the overnight low, this is pointing higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

War . . What Is Gold Good For?

****This is an article that will be published on KITCO and Yahoo Finance in the coming days*****For those that read the articles I published and the interviews I gave at the end of 2025, you would know that I was warning that this bullish metals cycle could be completing as we move into 2026.  In fact, in an article I wrote for KITCO in late 2025 – which was picked up by a number of other sites – each and every commenter told me how I was absolutely wrong, and that this time is different. While both gold and silver did exceed my ideal targets, it is rather clear now that a cycle has come to an end as per our expectations.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Treading Water - Market Analysis for Mar 24th, 2026

There really is not much to add to the analysis at this time.  We have been simply treading water within the b-wave support box on the ES chart.   And, as long as this continues, then I have to look higher towards the c-wave target box overhead.Of course, if we break this support box, then it opens the door to the deeper (a) wave presented on the 60-minute SPX chart, labeled as the alt (a).  And, until the market actually makes a decision, there is not much more for me to say.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago
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