Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Next Target Reached - Market Analysis for Sep 11th, 2025

Today, the market has now reached the target we set once the market made it clear it was heading to new all-time highs last week. And, as you can see from the attached 5-minute SPX chart, we have reached the upper portion of the larger degree target box, which is where I was calculating this current extension was pointing us towards.But, just because we have struck a target does not necessarily mean the market is going to stop.   We have seen some ridiculous extensions these last several months, which really reminds me of the early 2020 time period.  So, just because the market has reached our target does not mean it is time to short.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Nothing Goes Up Forever

This has indeed been a strong rally in gold these last few weeks. And, whether the 4th wave is done will likely be determined by the nature of the next pullback. Until such time, I have strong doubts as to whether it has indeed completed.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Fast Move To Resistance

Before we could blink, the market is already at the resistance region I outlined yesterday when we were at the lows.  So, the question now is if the market can follow through and begin to break support?Based upon the high struck today, we could develop a 5-wave decline to suggest that the c-wave down has begun.  We will need to see a 5-wave decline taking us to 6400SPX or lower to provide us with wave i of a c-wave or 3rd wave down.  Until that happens, no one should view a break of support as becoming a higher probability.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

My Path Forward In Metals

For those that have followed my work in metals through the years, you would know that we have caught just about every major turn in the charts for many years.  And, that is because we follow the structure of the market very closely, as well as apply the standards that have worked for us for the 14 years I have been publishing my metals analysis publicly.Of late, I have been struggling with this action in gold, as while I have been expecting a correction since April, I have been seeking a standard 4th wave formation.   Yet, thus far, that is not what we have seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Downside Follow Through - Market Analysis for Sep 2nd, 2025

As outlined in the weekend update, the market was set up for further downside early this week.   Moreover, I also noted in the weekend update that we did not have any structure in place that projected more than a test of the important support below us on the 5-minute SPX chart.  And, that seems to be what we are getting today.Furthermore, the decline today seems to complete a potential initial 5-wave structure off last week’s high – which is easier to see from the ES chart. So, I am able to maintain the red count on the chart – at least for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Silver Break Out?

Silver has now taken out the resistance I noted over the weekend.  Of course, this now opens silver up to starting its run to back to its all time highs.  But it will clearly not be direct.  For now, I am still going to give the (b) wave just a bit more room.  But, if we take out this adjusted resistance box, then we are either in a big wave 1 of wave (3) or we are actually in wave 3 of (3).   Both counts are quite reasonable if we are already breaking out.  Therefore, the next buying opportunity I would look towards IF . . again, IF we are breaking out is wave 2 or wave 4.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Squeezing Higher To Target

As you can see on the 5-minute SPX chart, we are only a few points to the minimum target expectation.   But, in truth, the ideal target is actually higher in the 6528SPX region, which is the 1.764 extension of waves 1-2 in this ending diagonal which began earlier this month at 6212SPX.So, while we clearly do not have an initial indication of a top being struck, I am on the lookout for a reversal now.Today’s pullback low at 6467SPX is our micro support.  And, as long as we remain over that support, this can continue to squeeze higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Getting Back To Resistance

With this rally in the metals complex, all three charts are now approaching their resistance regions.   In GDX, not only are we striking the top of the long-term target box I placed on the daily chart last year, we are also approaching the smaller degree target box which is at the top of the larger target box.In support of this expectation, the NEM is also striking its 1.236 extension of waves 1-2 in this (c) wave, which is a typical target for a 3rd wave of an ending diagonal (up to as high as the 1.382 extension).  Therefore, I have now moved into my alternative count that I presented in yellow, and it is now my primary view.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Do We Dare Look For More?

With the market pulling back from last week's high, we have struck the top of the support box on our 5-minute SPX chart.  So, the question is if this is all we get, or do we dare look lower into the support box?Normally, a c-wave provides us with a standard 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure.  That also means that wave 1 of the c-wave is usually a standard 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure as well.  At this time, I cannot say that I see a standard 5-wave Fibonacci Pinball structure developed off today's low. As of right now, it looks like an overlapping 3-wave structure.  Of course, it may morph into a leading diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Slow Summer Day - Market Analysis for Aug 25th, 2025

The market seems to be meandering lower today, and it still very well holds within the expectations for a b-wave pullback.  While I MAY be able to classify today’s rally in the SPX as a leading diagonal (of course, which I do not see as a highly reliable cue), the futures look very corrective in this bounce. This leads me to the conclusion that we are in the midst of the b-wave pullback.So, as long as we remain below Friday’s high, I am going to maintain the expectation of a continued pullback into tomorrow.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

What A Mess!

That title really conveys my frustration with these wave structures.  There is nothing that I would call high probability in the smaller degree simply because of the extreme overlapping structures with which we are being presented in the silver and gold charts.  In gold, I am still viewing the purple and green counts as the most likely potentials.  But, they both would still seemingly need a bigger bounce before any further downside is seen.  But, if we see a move lower in a more direct fashion, I would begin to view the yellow count with a bit higher probability.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Testing Support - Market Analysis for Aug 20th, 2025

With the follow-through this morning, into the support box, the market has now struck the ideal target for a 4th wave in an ending diagonal.  You see, in the great majority of ending diagonal structures, we see overlap within waves (1) and (4).  And, this morning, the market provided that overlap before it began its bounce back up into the afternoon.However, being a purist, I can count for one more lower low as long as the pivot box on the 15-minute ES chart holds as resistance.  But, clearly, we have enough waves in place now and have struck the ideal target to consider all of wave (4) as complete.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Some Movement, But Not Much Change In View

With the market moving lower today, we are getting closer to the support box outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.  And, as long as this support box is held, I am still looking for one more push higher before this 5-wave structure off the early August pullback low completes.  In the very micro structure, the 6420/25SPX region is micro-resistance.  As long as that resistance holds, then I would expect a test of the support box below us.  Through that micro-resistance, and we have an initial indication that wave (5) has potentially begun.Overall, I am still viewing this bigger structure as topping, and once we complete this wave (5), I will be seeking evidence of that potential.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Was The Market Even Open Today?

You really have to ask that question as it does not seem to have any life to it.  So, there really is not much for me to add to the analysis.  Yet, I have added a support box on the 5-minute SPX chart for a wave (4).  As long as we do not break below that support, then I am expecting one more rally to complete wave (5).  And, in the bigger picture, I am still looking for indications that a larger degree high has been struck.  Nothing changes in that regard.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Is A Bear Market Even Possible?

My broader view on the S&P500 (SPX) is that we are coming to the conclusion of a rally, which can represent a major long-term top in the United States equity market. This would conclude an almost 100-year bull market which began at the bottom of the market crash of 1929. In fact, this could usher in a bear market that would rival the one seen in Japan, which lasted for well over a decade.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Gold Still In Corrective Mode

With gold following through to the downside in what seems like the (d) wave of a b-wave triangle (in purple), we are still well within the parameters of an ongoing wave [4].  In the micro structure, it does seem as though a higher of a bounce would be likely to complete the b-wave of that [d] wave, the main point is that as long as we remain below last week’s high, I am seeking a conclusion to this b-wave triangle as outlined on the 60-minute GC count.   Once that does complete, I will be looking for an initial 5-wave decline to make it likely that the c-wave down in wave (4) has begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Hitting Resistance - Market Analysis for Aug 12th, 2025

With the continuation move higher today, the market is now pushing on the all-time high struck in the futures market at the end of August.  Moreover, since the manner in which we have rallied off the 6212SPX low is rather corrective and overlapping, there is even potential we are striking an [a][b][c] conclusion to a rally, as I have outlined in the alternative blue count.   So, where this leaves us is maintaining a view higher towards the next target/resistance box on the 5-minute chart.  But, that structure, since it is overlapping, is most likely taking shape as a diagonal.   Therefore, the target for wave (3) is in the 1.236 extension of waves (1)(2), which is in the 6475SPX region.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Specific Micro-Path Higher Has Not Materialized

While the holding of support and rallying last week has certainly opened the door to the next higher targets (despite how long-in-the-tooth this rally already is), as I mentioned in the weekend update, the specific path higher is not at all clear.   You see, while the rally off last week’s test of support began with a potential impulsive rally, the movement since has been anything but.  This leaves us wanting for a structure within a potential 5th wave higher, as outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.One of the paths I am considering is presented on the attached 15-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

3rd Wave or B-wave? Both Have Same Outcome

With the GDX moving beyond my prior expectation, the question that is on everyone minds is what this means to the overall chart?   And, the basic answer is “not very much.”You see, either this rally is an expanded b-wave, or it is simply a continuation of the 3rd wave.  In both cases, we likely still see a sizeable decline before the 5th wave rally takes hold.  The main reason I am assuming that the 5th wave has not begun is because we have seen no consolidation that would be deep enough or large enough to be considered the wave 4.  Therefore, the most reasonable assumption is that this is either an expanded b-wave within wave 4, or wave 3 is simply extending.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Quick Point On Gold

As of now, we have 3 waves off the low struck in gold at the end of July.  However, we do not have 5 waves down, unless it morphs into a leading diagonal, which still needs a lower low off yesterday's high.  But, if gold pushes to another high in this rally off the low from the end of July, that would make this rally 5 waves up, and I would have to strongly reconsider further immediate downside.That then brings me to a question as to why we would have 5 waves up here.  And, I do not have a good answer as I still have no confidence that we have a completed bigger 4th wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

I Am Still Amazed ....

I am still amazed at how many of you try to follow the "economy" and indicators for the "economy.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

GDX Has A Lot Of Catching Up To Do

With silver leading to the downside of late, I am now tracking it as completed its wave v of (iii) of 3 in its c-wave down.  That would mean I am looking for a bounce in wave (iv) of 3 in the near term.  As you can see from the 8-minute chart, I have lowered resistance.  And, as long as the next bounce is corrective and respects resistance, I will be continuing to look lower in the coming days.  Another point I want to make about the silver action is that we can see in real time how the 5th waves are quite extended in the metals.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Yes, That Is Red You See

The first question you have to ask yourself is why are we red when such a YUGE deal with the EU was completed this morning?  And, it should remind you again that the market does not act as a mechanical system in the manner in which most always expect.  And, it gives me another opportunity to post the wise words of Bob Prechter from his seminal book The Socionomic Theory of Finance:“Observers’ job, as they see it, is simply to identify which external events caused whatever price changes occur.  When news seems to coincide sensibly with market movement, they presume a causal relationship.  When news doesn’t fit, they attempt to devise a cause-and-effect structure to make it fit.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Metals Are Getting People Very Bullish Again

Whenever I have questions about a chart, I will usually go back to the larger degree.  And, the larger degree in both GDX and GLD tell me that I have NO reliable way to consider wave 4 as complete, which means I have no reliable reason to believe wave 5 has begun.   So, despite everyone being so certain that we are starting a new major move in the complex, I am still struggling with that potential.Furthermore, since we know that 5th waves in metals are usually going to be parabolic and strong moves, it is HIGHLY likely they will begin with a standard 5-wave structure for their first wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Downside Setup Still Developing In Metals

For those that have been following my analysis, you would know that I have been expecting a downside move to complete this correction in the metals before the next and likely final rally completes this long-term bullish cycle.In both gold and GDX, I have been tracking a 1-2 downside structure for their respective c-waves to complete a larger degree 4th wave.  However, this 2nd waves I have been tracking has become quite unreliable, as it now relies on more of a w-x-y pattern than a standard a-b-c for a wave 2.  While I can technically maintain an a-b-c for wave 2 in GDX, I cannot say it is highly reliable since the top of its potential wave 2 last week.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago
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