Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Just Gets More Messy

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by Avi Gilburt - 12 hours ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 28th, 2026

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by Avi Gilburt - 18 hours ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 25th, 2026

While I really cannot glean much from the gold chart as it is too much of a mess to be reliable, both GDX and silver are saying that as long as we are below 68 in silver and below 98.35 in GDX, it may be advisable to take a more protective stance, as the potential for lower lows has grown. Should we see something different, I will alert you.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Is The b-Wave Pullback Complete?

The market rally thus far today counts well as a corrective a-b-c structure, which would suggest that we can see another leg lower in a (c) wave decline before this correction completes. If the (b) wave is complete, then we have an ideal target for the (c) wave which coincides with the .764 retracement around 7640ES, which also represents an (a)=(c) decline from the high we just struck.Of course, there are a couple of other reasonable possibilities that I want you to keep in the back of your mind.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 24th, 2026

With the continued weakness in metals, I wanted to put out a quick update.As long as GDX holds 91.19, the green (ii) is still alive but on life support right now due to the depth and size of this potential wave (ii).  I have also added a pivot on the chart which is quite important in the near term.  A break down below the pivot places pressure down in a big way to the blue wave (ii) box.  Ideally, I would like to see a bounce from this region.  If it is corrective, then we have to prepare for a  drop to the blue box - or potentially lower.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Deeper Correction? - Market Analysis for Sep 23rd, 2026

With the metals turning down today, it has opened the door to a deeper correction. Let’s start with GDXAs the market was rallying yesterday, I warned not to get too bullish just yet as it has not proven its clear bullish intent just yet. In fact, I noted as we were hitting yesterday’s highs that “[i]f anyone wants a little protection in GDX, this is a nice place for it. . .between here and 101.83.”Since that point, I can count a 5-wave decline into this morning’s low. This now opens the door to a drop to the next support region noted on the 8-minute GDX chart, which represents the .500-.618 retracement of the prior rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

A Simple Thank You Is Not Enough

Another year has gone by at Elliottwavetrader, and I am humbled and amazed that we celebrate our 15th anniversary today.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Tracking The Action Carefully

While this update is based upon the GDX, it can equally apply to the metals themselves as well, and I will update that tomorrow.But, focusing on the GDX right now, the market has now moved up over the wave (i) high.  And, in order for it to really get my bullish juices going, we would now need to follow through over 101.83 to invalidate the potential for the yellow count.  But, until that happens, the yellow count is still alive and must be respected and tracked.Moreover, there is also one more potential I am now forced to track and that is a wider wave (2), the path for which is now shown in blue and with question marks.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Path For Yellow - Market Analysis for Sep 22nd, 2026

As I noted earlier today, the market has taken out resistance, which forces me into the yellow count, as the blue count has invalidated. That means we are now tracking a diagonal off the wave 2 low for wave i of 3. And, within that diagonal, we are in wave (v).Remember that the huge majority of diagonals develop with 3-wave sub-structures. That means that this will likely be an a-b-c rally. So, as I noted on the attached 5-mintue chart, either the a-b is already done, or we have just begun the b-wave pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 22nd, 2026

I can now reasonably move down to two wave counts.  Of course, we could get another curve ball today, but for now, these two scenarios make the most sense to me.Clearly, the first is the yellow count we have been tracking for quite some time now.  And, it "should" carry us to the 7900-8000SPX region before we see another larger bout of weakness.  The second would suggest a major top, and that is in red.  But, in order to begin a confirmation of that path, we would need to break down below the yellow wave i in the 7233SPX region.Again, the market could still give us another curve ball without getting us to higher highs.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Metals Are Certainly Trying

While the metals have certainly provided us with a nice pullback thus far, I do not yet have enough evidence to strongly suggest that the pullback is complete and a 3rd wave rally has yet begun.Starting with the 60-minute gold chart, you will see that we bottomed this past week just over the support box. And, off that low, while we do not have an ideal Fibonacci Pinball 5-wave structure, we can make out a leading diagonal. Yes, I know those are not terribly reliable.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

No Man’s Land

As I wrote earlier this week and this morning again, with the taking out of lower resistance ovenight, we have moved into no-man’s land wherein I do not believe we can view one potential as being a higher probability than the other on the 5 and 15 minute charts. Although I will add that the downside path has a greater Bayesian probability than the yellow count based upon Luke Miller’s work, I cannot say that the two Elliott Wave counts being presented here stand out on their own as one being a higher probability than the other.In the blue count, yesterday’s low completed a very overlapping and unclear a-wave decline.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 17th, 2026

Thus far, the metals have held where they have needed to for their respective 2nd/b-waves.  But, we did not get a clear 5 up in standard fashion.  Can we call it a leading diagonal?  Sure.  But, as you know, they are not reliable enough for me.  So, I am going to be a bit more cautious until we invalidate downside potentials. In GDX, that means a break out over 101.83.  In gold, that means a break out over 4560.  In silver it means a break out over 69.  And, should we move higher in the coming days, I may raise my stop to the lows we just struck yesterday.  And, I want to see a bigger degree 1-2.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Morning Update - Market Analysis for Sep 17th, 2026

Just a quick morning update.With the move over the prior wave ii count, we have invalidated the prior count. And, as I said, this puts us into no-man's land as long as we are below wave 2.  These are the two paths I am now tracking and I cannot say I like either.  But, over wave 2, then we have to assume the yellow count.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Don’t Bank On It: A Specialty-Finance Lender

With this article, we continue our new series, “Don’t Bank On It,” focusing on the existential issues found on one specific bank’s balance sheet. We also challenge readers to figure out which bank we are covering in each article. Our next highlighted bank is a publicly listed US bank with roughly $7B in assets. Unlike a traditional community bank, its balance sheet is heavily dominated by specialty and commercial finance.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Catalyst For Decline - Market Analysis for Sep 16th, 2026

As it stands right now, it would seem that we do not have any clear impulsive moves off a low in the metals charts. Therefore, this means we only likely have seen a corrective rally, suggesting one more drop. And, with the Fed up today, it could easily be a catalyst for that drop.Now, remember, I cannot count a clear impulsive rally which is why I think there is another drop coming. This is not set in stone, but just seems more likely to me right now based upon what I have seen thus far. Clearly, we can morph into a leading diagonal or something, but as of now, it seems more likely that we drop one more time.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

The Floor Is Creaking But Has Not Yet Broken

We certainly did see downside follow through as we generally expected, but the fact that the SPX/ES refuses to really break the recent support region of prior lows is leaving me seriously questioning any potential downside follow through.In truth, the manner in which we are currently set up would normally point us to the lower end of the support box below. But, the fact that we have not broken down yet does leave me concerned about that follow through.While this could be a 1-2, i-ii, (i)(ii) structure in the making – which means the morning high should not be broken to the upside – we will need to see downside acceleration sooner rather than later.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

How Artificial Intelligence (AI) Is Affecting Gold

If you clicked on this article based upon only the title, then it is clear you have bought the current narrative that AI is affecting everything in the market. But, I am sorry to inform you that this is not how markets work.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Another Downside Set Up?

Yes, folks, I am presenting another downside set up. We are about even in this region with regard to the ones that have had some follow through and the ones that have not. But, at this time, I would be remiss in my obligations as an analyst to at least point it out.From the high we struck last week, there is a reasonable count for 5 waves down into today’s low.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Market Analysis for Sep 14th, 2026

Silver was a typo . . it should be 60.81.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

I Am Getting That Itch

With the pullback in the metals now taking us a bit deeper in a more direct fashion, I have started to get that itch to buy back what I sold. Yes, I may be early and I still am not sure if we see lower lows before the next rally takes hold. But, let me explain why I may start buying.When the market began to head lower into today, that itch I started having forced me to look at the downside ratios.First, in gold, I have added a box on the 60-minute chart which represents the point wherein (c)=.764*a until (c)=(a). This could be a buying region. And, stops could go below that box.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Following Through To The Downside

With the continuation lower, the structure of this decline seems to be following along in wave (3) of the c-wave of wave 3 in the ending diagonal (c) wave we have been tracking.As of my writing this update, I think there is still potential for wave (3) to extend a bit lower. But, if the low is in already, then we will likely see another leg higher towards the resistance box for wave (4). And, as long as that resistance box is respected, I am expecting a wave (5) lower in the coming days to complete the c-wave of wave 3.Should the market drop lower in wave (3), I will then lower the resistance box for wave (4).
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Still Trying For A Bounce

With the deeper drop in gold this past week, it left me wondering if gold wanted to form an ending diagonal for the (c) wave, or if it was going to develop more of a b-wave within a larger (b) wave. As it stands right now, as long as the overnight low holds, we seem to be set up again for a c-wave rally to complete a more complex (b) wave. However, should gold break down below the overnight low, then the probabilities shift towards an ending diagonal for the (c) wave and potentially seeing this correction complete a lot sooner.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Not A Lot To Add

The market seems to be meandering again, and it is not providing much more for me to add to the analysis.The one thing that is standing out a bit right now is that this pullback is seeming a bit too large for it to be a 4th wave in the yellow wave 1 of yellow wave (v). So, I would have to conclude that this count is becoming even less probable at this time.Also, with the action we are seeing today, it does fill in a nice wave (1) down in the blue c-wave of wave 3. And, as long as we hold over 7670ES, then I can reasonably expect more of a wave (2) bounce.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Both Sides Are Getting Neutralized

With today’s rally taking out the wave ii high, I cannot say we are left with any reliable wave counts right now. What remains on the bearish side is an ending diagonal for the (c) wave down, within which we are completing a VERY deep b-wave of wave 3. And, yes, the depth of this b-wave certainly makes me question this count as well.Yet, the bullish count we are left with as the yellow alternative leaves a tremendous amount to be desired. Both from a structure standpoint and a wave relationship ratio standpoint, it is an exceptionally unreliable count overall. Yet, it may become the last man standing.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago
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