Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Moving The Pivot Up

With the market seemingly completing the wave iv of wave 3 in the bullish count with a pullback this morning to the 1.00 extension of waves 1-2, the market seems to be rallying in wave v of 3. The typical target for that wave degree is the 1.618 extension of waves 1-2, which is the 6915SPX region.However, with wave iv of 3 only pulling back to the 1.00 extension, it does open the door that we can see an extension in wave v of 3. But, even if we do, I am still not seeing much to suggest we will see an appreciable push through the 6950SPX region. But, we will see how extended wave v of 3 becomes before we make any final determinations regarding wave 5.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Holding The Pivot - Market Analysis for Dec 22nd, 2025

We expected that the market will likely make a decision as to whether it wants to head directly to higher highs early this week. And, the gap up today has now made the pivot on the 5-minute SPX chart our primary focus. Remember, when the market rallies to the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2, then it is likely that we will hold the .764 extension as support for wave iv if we are in wave 3. And, that is where I believe we are right now within the bullish count. That now means that, if the market has intentions of new highs over the coming week or two, then we will not break back down below the pivot.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Bullish Set Up In Place

While I cannot guarantee how the market is going to move, I can outline potential set ups which present a good risk/reward type of structure. And, I am seeing one now in SPX.With the market bottoming around the .500 retracement and the original target we had for this last decline, we have rallied in what counts relatively well as a 5-wave structure off the low. I would then view that as wave 1 of the (c) wave. Thereafter, we had a sharp pullback, which is a bit clouded in its structure, but which I am assuming is a wave 2.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Silver Will Never Come Down Again

The way the silver rally has extended, it sure feels like it will never come down again, especially as many are now suggesting targets of $200 in the near term for silver. But, needless to say, the wave structure is rather full – and then some – for this segment of the rally. And, I still am expecting one more pullback before the final phase of this rally likely takes hold. Yet, for now, after cashing in some of my shorter dated aggressive long positions, I am still holding my final aggressive longer-dated positions (all bought near the October lows, as announced in the trading room) and will simply add to them on the next pullback.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Just More Overlap - Market Analysis for Dec 16th, 2025

As I posted earlier this morning, while the overnight session initially followed through on the downside set up, the rally off the overnight low provided overlap which made the downside set up much less likely as a standard impulsive (c) wave. And, when the SPX opened and spiked the 6800SPX level, only to spike back over it again, it was a warning that the cash index was likely to do the same.Based upon the preceding points, I cannot say as confidently that this will continue in a direct fashion down to the 6700SPX region and the .500 retracement region.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Setting Up To Test The Support Box Below

With the market spiking higher this morning into the open, we seem to have completed a (b) wave consolidation structure. You can see this labeled on the attached 5-minute SPX chart. This now suggests that the market is setting up a (c) wave decline to test the support box below.Assuming waves i-ii are already in place, then this structure is projecting towards the .500 retracement region. Of course, we will need to next see a break down below the 6800 region, which is the low struck on Friday, before we break over today’s high in order to make this our likely path and target.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Overnight Action Has Delayed Santa

While the market had a “reasonable” ending diagonal potential to take us to new higher and complete a (c) wave, the night monkeys put one of their wrenches into the works and screwed that up. I mean, it’s not like a diagonal is such a reliable structure to begin with. But, it now leaves us in a no-man’s land within the market highs and the 6810SPX support. And, thus far, that support still seems to be holding. Yet, this overlapping action we have seen for all of December can be counted in a number of ways. In fact, we can even call the bottom of a more complex (b) wave, and another diagonal starting off that low.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Is This The Final Move?

For those that remember early this year, I was strongly urging that we prepare for what will likely be a parabolic run and catch up move in silver. In fact, I attached the “conservative” chart path I laid out in the spring. I even noted at the time that I would not be surprised if the final 5th wave higher would provide us with many $2+ days of rally. And, that is what we are seeing of late.So, of course, this is begging the question “is this the final move higher?”I am still struggling with that answer, as I still think silver has a bigger pullback coming.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Over 6810SPX - Market Analysis for Dec 10th, 2025

The market has been unable to break below the triangle consolidation, which has left the upside open. And, this afternoon, we have broken any immediate set up for a drop to take us to the bigger (b) wave support box below.That now means that as long as we remain over 6810SPX, we have to continue to look higher to the target box overhead.While I would love to give you a clear micro count to work with, the overlap seen since the triangle structure does not allow me to do so. So, it only leaves me with looking higher for as long as we remain over 6810SPX.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Just More Sideways Action

Unfortunately, there really is not much for me to add to the recent analysis on SPX, as the market is simply grinding sideways in a corrective manner. What I will say is that the decline we experienced from Friday's high seems to best count as a 3-wave decline. That means the yellow b-wave seems to be the least likely of the paths right now. And, as long as we remain over 6810SPX, the bulls remain in control.But, if there is a path to take us lower, it would suggest that we are in an a-b-c structure pointing down to the support box below.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Silver’s Time To Shine

While silver is pushing into the minimum expected target region we set a while ago, I cannot say that this changes much in the analysis. I am still uncertain as to which of the paths silver is going to take higher, as this is just a 5th wave in all the potential paths I have posted. And, yes, I still expect a pullback. But, as the analysis presented over the last week noted, I am still not sure how deep that pullback will be. And, based upon the depth of the pullback, we will have a much better idea as to how high silver can travel in its larger 5th wave.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

As The Market Meanders

When I was a young child, I remember my grandmother watching a soap opera called “As The World Turns.” Well, we seem to be stuck in another similar type of soap opera in the market, which I am now entitling “As The Market Meanders.”We have been stuck moving back and forth in this region now for over 3 months. And, while we are still very stretched to the upside, the market has yet to provide us any evidence that a top of any larger degree has indeed been struck. The 6550SPX support region has held on many tests. But, now we are meandering in a smaller range.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

FCX: Learning Opportunity Regarding Fibonacci Pinball

I do not often discuss individual stocks, but this one has presented a wonderful learning opportunity, so I decided to do a write up.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Going To Need More Information

Unfortunately, where the metals currently reside, we will need more information based upon the upcoming wave action over the coming weeks before we can make any determinations. Moreover, the structures have turned quite complex, but I am going to attempt to simplify the analysis. And, I hope I am successful.Let’s start with gold. The structure of the rally off the end of October low is clearly a 3-wave structure. And, as long as the resistance box on the 60-minute chart is respected, then we are well within a text-book a-b-c structure for the yellow (b) wave.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

6810SPX Is Our New Support

As the market has been grinding sideways now for days, and as I said in an alert I posted not too long ago, I think everyone, along with their grandmother and their grandmother’s dog can see the obvious triangle in the SPX. And, if we completed the e-wave or the c-wave of that triangle, then 6810SPX is our new micro support level.The question now is what does this triangle represent? Keep in mind that triangles are most often seen in 4th waves and b-waves.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Market Still Angling For 7000

As I write this update, I cannot say that I have any strong evidence that the market is not going to attempt a run at 7000 before the end of the year. While there is a potential 5-wave decline from last week’s high in place, I want to remind you that a-waves can also be a 5-wave structure in the less common scenarios. But, if we are going to have something to suggest that we are not going to make a run for 7000, we will need a 5-wave decline at one larger wave degree before I am willing to entertain the potential that we will break down below the (b) wave support box in the yellow count.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Dec 1st, 2025

I want to note clearly that I have no reasonable way to count the rally into the mid-November high as a 5-wave structure, as it is VERY clearly a 3-wave structure to me. And, unfortunately, that leads to too many interpretations for me to maintain a reliable stance on an exact path forward.There is potential that this is a leading diagonal for wave 1 of the wave (5), as per blue. There is potential that we are in an ending diagonal for wave (5), as per yellow, especially since we are now approaching the 1.236 extension for what can be wave 3 in an ED. And, there is still strong potential for this being part of a larger corrective structure for wave (4).

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Are We Trying For 7000 Again?

The 7000 mark has been the focus of almost every analyst and investor for many months now. And, yes, there is certainly a path there at this time. So, while I am going to lay out the path, I am also going to provide you a splash of cold water presented in the IWM daily chart.First, it is quite clear that the market has held the important 6550SPX region for at least the 5th time in the last 3 months since we broke out over it. And, it is still represents the opening of a trap door should the market finally see a sustained break down through it.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Metals Pushing The Limits Again

If you have experience with the manner in which the metals trade, then you know that they almost always push their limits. And, silver seems to be doing that as I write this update.There is no question that the rally that we have seen since silver struck the wave (4) support/target box has been overlapping and corrective looking. This has been quite consistent with the expectation that it has been a corrective rally. And, that is how I currently view it. The question then is how to count it?First, silver is still retaining its 1-2 downside structure as long as we remain below the (b) wave high.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Another One Bites The Dust?

Over the last number of months, the SPX has tested the 6550SPX support region to which I have been pointing multiple times, and we have yet to see a sustained break of that level despite numerous tests of that support. And, with the SPX closing in on the 6770SPX level (technically 6770.35), we are very close to an invalidation of the wave count shown on the 5-minute SPX chart. So, will yet another downside set up bite the dust after a successful test of 6550SPX support?I cannot answer that one just yet, but it is not looking good for it to hold due to how much we have retraced. But, until we actually break out to 6770.36, the count remains alive.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Pushing Upper Resistance - Market Analysis for Nov 24th, 2025

With the SPX pushing higher today, we have reached the .764 retracement of what I am counting as an a-wave decline within wave 3 of an ending diagonal. We are also just below a downtrend line, as you can see on the 5-minute chart.As I outlined the positive divergence on the 60-minute MACD as we were hitting the support box, we are now approaching the resistance box again. If this is indeed a b-wave rally, then we should simply strike that box, and turn down. That is how technicals work in a corrective bounce, as opposed to hitting the box and consolidating during a bull move.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Explaining NVDA, Bitcoin And The Stock Market

There was a lot of investor hand-wringing and head-scratching experienced this past week.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Testing Support Again - Market Analysis for Nov 20th, 2025

The manner in which the market has been trading of late is more indicative of a top having been struck. When we broke this week’s pullback low today, it started to increase the probability that a high of sorts is now in place, and that 7000 is going to be put off for now, if not for many years to come. But, of course, we seek confirmation.Based upon the manner in which the market has been moving back and forth up here, I cannot say there is a clearly defined impulsive 5-wave structure having developed for a c-wave decline here.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Pressure Remains Down - Market Analysis for Nov 19th, 2025

I have to keep this update short as I just got back to my hotel and have to run out for a dinner meeting. While I can count both gold and GDX as a potential i-ii down in the continuation of their respective (c) waves down, silver would really count best with one more rally to complete a deeper wave 2. But, the main theme remains the same. As long as the various charts remain corrective below their respective (b) wave highs, I am expecting a (c) wave decline, which will be signaled by a follow through break down below the lows of wave 1.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Can Bears Push It Over The 6550SPX Line?

Today, price has spiked below the pivot. But, the action we are seeing after that spike is more of a "comeback" so far than it is a follow through. The market had a potential 1-2, i-ii downside set up that has developed, which should mean that a heart of a 3rd wave down should be in progress. That means that once the market breaks down below the pivot between the .618-764 extensions of waves 1-2, and drops to the 1.00 extension or lower, then the likelihood resides with the 3rd wave down. However, it must then remain below the pivot on the wave iv of 3 bounce in order to keep pressure down in wave v of 3.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

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Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

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