Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Still Treacherous - Market Analysis for Nov 13th, 2025

I am sending out the update early, as the initial path I had outlined has basically been invalidated. So, I wanted to outline what I am seeing right now. I want to start by noting that I am clearly not "bullish" in the bigger picture up here, nor am I buying every dip like there is no tomorrow. However, I have to note that the market has neither broken any major support levels, nor has it given us a strong indication that an ending diagonal has completed. Therefore, it forces me to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt at each potential opportunity.

by Avi Gilburt - 20 hours ago

This Could Get Treacherous

Yesterday, I outlined a potential path that could take us towards the 7000 region with VERY shallow pullbacks. And, overnight, the market has made an attempt at following through with that path. But, with a break down below a micro pivot, we seem to have failed. This has now opened two paths of which I want you to be aware, and both are relatively treacherous.Should the market be able to maintain over the 6805SPX level, then we may be tracing out an ending diagonal for this c-wave, as shown on the attached 5-minute chart. Once completed, we will likely see a strong reversal, the extent of which can give us indications as to the degree of top we have struck.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

We Are At Yet Another Metals Inflection Point

I am sending this update out earlier than usual as I believe we are approaching an inflection point now in the metals complex.Based upon the last few week’s price action, it was not easy to maintain an expectation of a bigger (b) wave rally. However, we have now finally seen what I had wanted to see these last few weeks. And, now that we have, we are approaching a test for our primary count.As you know, our primary count had the initial decline in the complex as an (a) wave, with this rally being a (b) wave, which was structured as an a-b-c move higher.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

The Unstoppable Train - Market Analysis for Nov 11th, 2025

One way or another, the market seems to be signaling it wants to reach that 7000SPX milestone on this amazing rally off the April low. To see a rally like this is not terribly common (which is why I did not expect it), but this is what the market seems to be presenting us at this time. With the rally off last week’s low already approaching the .764 retracement of the prior decline, and the fact that the rally looks like a 5-wave move off that low, it makes it much more likely that we are going to head to higher highs off the low struck last week.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Intellectual Dishonesty When It Comes To Market

So many now claim that this rally is due to the resolution of the government shut down. So, let's look at the SPX chart and see if this is true.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Note Of Caution - Market Analysis for Nov 6th, 2025

As I was reviewing the metals charts this morning, I wanted to send out a note of caution before I left for the day. While my preference has been for a higher (b) wave bounce across the metals complex, I have noticed that both GDX and GC can be considered as completing a (b) wave triangle this morning. While I do not have the same potential in silver, it still is enough evidence of a potential completing a (b) wave that requires me to send out this note of caution.Should we see an impulsive break down in GDX below 68, in GC below 3935, and in silver below 47.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Overnight Low Important - Market Analysis for Nov 5th, 2025

As I am now traveling, I am gong to keep this week's metals update rather simple. And, also, due to the rally we have seen since the overnight low was struck, it lends to the simplified analysis.I am still seeking a c-wave rally to complete a larger (b) wave in the respective 4th waves of the various charts. As long as the overnight low is held on the next pullback across the charts, then I can view that c-wave rally as having begun. My preference is for a higher rally in silver relative to gold, and GDX may come somewhere in between.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

How Much Further Downside?

With the market remaining below the high struck yesterday, we completed the b-wave triangle, and have followed through with the downside expectation in the c-wave. The question now is if this decline is done?At this time, I am still unsure if this current decline has the dreaded one more lower low. But, even if we do see that lower low, the bigger picture remains the same. It still centers around the lack of evidence that a top has indeed been struck. We have no strong reversal indicating a diagonal has completed, nor have we broken support. In fact, this current decline is still holding the initial support region outlined on the ES chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Just Going Sideways - Market Analysis for Nov 3rd, 2025

When the market moves sideways for a period of time as we have now seen since Thursday, it forces us to consider a triangle is taking shape. And, the type of triangle this seems to be tracing out is a b-wave triangle.So, I can keep today’s analysis rather simple. As long as this morning’s high is respected, then I am viewing us as being in an (e) wave of a b-wave triangle. That basically means that as long as we remain below this morning’s high, pressure will be down and a c-wave can develop over the coming day or so which can test the lower end of the initial support region.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Can You Double Your Money With Silver?

The talk of the town in the metals complex has been focused on gold. But, I think silver has yet to see its final parabolic move.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Oct 30th, 2025

I want to reiterate in this update that my preference is still to see more of a "bounce" in the metals chart for a bigger and deeper (b) wave before we begin a (c) wave decline. However, the market has been developing potential signals that could suggest we go down sooner than currently expected. So, I wanted to send out a quick update.The most clear picture of a more immediate downside potential is in gold. Earlier today, I sent out the following Alert in the main room:"I am being VERY cautious in gold right now due to the other potential paths.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Getting A Bit More Complex

While the metals market provided us with another bounce, the structure of that bounce was not at all indicative of a standard c-wave rally, which would have completed a larger b-wave bounce. You see, c-waves are most often 5-wave structures. And, thus far, all we have seen is another 3-wave bounce. This leaves the door open for several paths.Let’s start with gold. As you know, I am trying to track a (b) wave bounce, which would set up a (c) wave decline. However, if we are going to see a (b) wave bounce taking us higher in the coming days, we are now at important support for a b-wave within that structure.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Market Testing Micro Support

I really do not have much to add to yesterday's analysis. But, today we did see a pullback towards the smaller degree uptrend line, as we are holding over the initial support box. So, as it stands as I write this update, nothing has broken. And, a VERY stretched market can continue to choose even higher levels to strike before we finally complete this very long uptrend. As I said in metals as we were striking the highs, you have to determine how much risk you want to take up here.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Simply Amazing - Market Analysis for Oct 28th, 2025

As I wrote earlier today:“I am truly astounded that we have been able to approach the 7000 region without more than a .236 retracement. It is truly amazing. But, it has done its job . . it has made people absolutely believe in the invincibility of the US equity market.”In fact, if you are given this larger degree structure without more than a .236 retracement the entire way up, 8 or 9 out of 10 times this would not likely be the result, in my humble opinion. That is why I view this as such an anomaly, as it is so rare to see this type of move.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Pushing Upside Targets - Market Analysis for Oct 27th, 2025

Over the weekend, I outlined the upside targets/resistance in the 6832-54SPX region. And, today’s gap up moved past that initial resistance region. But, on the 15-minute ES chart, we have been hitting our head on the 2.00 extension of waves (1)(2) in the ending diagonal structure I have been tracking of late. And, I still think this is a very reasonable interpretation.However, for this interpretation to bear fruit, it would mean a strong reversal below the wave (4) low should begin imminently. And, due to how incredibly stretched this rally has become off the April low without more than a .236 retracement, I have a hard time expecting even further gains.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Downside Being Seen, But, Weaker Than Expected

I was unable to write an update as I was at doctor appointments this morning. So, I am going to outline what I am seeing so you can understand my conclusions.While we did see a “bounce” last week, that bounce only went to the .382 retracement of the prior decline. While it is “possible” that this was all the (b) wave we are going to get, as shown by the alt (b) noted on the charts, this is clearly not my primary expectation. In fact, I still think it is reasonable to expect more of a bounce. Let me explain.To see a (b) wave that only retraces .

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Looking For A “Bounce”

We have seen quite the selloff in the metals complex. When the rubber band is stretched to an extreme in one direction, the snap back can be quite painful. And, I tried to warn quite vehemently about a potential for such a reversal, but too many were busy cheerleading.While I was able to identify the blow-off top occurring in real-time last week in gold, we are now down to the initial support regions on our various charts. In GC and GDX, we are now at the lower end of the upper support box. In silver, we almost struck the top of the major support box. And, thus far, all count best as 3-wave declines.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Why Do I Bother?

I can’t remember the last time we completed a solid 5-wave, standard Fibonacci Pinball, impulsive structure in the ES/SPX pointing up. So, I wonder why I even bothered trying to track one of late. But, needless to say, the decline below the pivot today has spoiled that pattern as well.At this time, we are left with a potential ending diagonal pointing us to one more higher high, or the c-wave decline. While I cannot count a solid 5-wave decline to strongly suggest the c-wave down has begun, it is still just as viable a path right now as the ending diagonal.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Something Is About To Happen

With the market hovering just below the 1.236 extension of yellow waves (1)(2), there are several options I will outline.I will start with what I view as the primary count presented in yellow. This suggests we are in the c-wave of wave 5, and as long as we hold over the pivot in a corrective fashion, I will maintain this as my primary and look for the next move to the 6845ES region to complete wave (3).Of course, I have to reasonably track two alternatives. First, since we have rallied to the 1.236 extension of waves (1)(2), we have to consider that we may be completing the c-wave as an ending diagonal. You see, wave (3) of a diagonal targets the 1.236 extension of waves (1)(2).

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Is That All We Get?

Silver is currently attempting to complete a (c) wave down. And, of course, the question is going to be if this is all we get?So far, we have come up a bit short of the .236 minimum target we set for this pullback. Moreover, we clearly are well shy of the multi-week correction that the 2010-2011 fractal suggested we could see. But, at the same time, the MACD has now moved down into the reset posture, which can now support a larger degree rally.Moving over to gold we also seem to be completing an a-b-c flat, which may be all of the alt iv. Yet, GDX really is well short of even an *a)=(c).

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Upside Open To New Highs

With today’s action, I can eliminate several of the paths we have been tracking and we have simply a primary and alternative. Overall, the same perspective from the weekend update is still applicable: As long as we remain over the pullback low of last week, we are looking towards higher highs.However, now we can adjust that support to a higher level. If you look at the attached 15-minute ES chart, you will see that the yellow path is pointing us higher for as long as the market does not break back down below the pivot in impulsive fashion. As long as we see a corrective pullback holding that pivot, I am looking higher.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Consolidation Before Higher?

As I said over the weekend, we will have to see how the market reacts to the downside once the bounce we expected this week completed. And, that now refers to the decline that was seen yesterday after the (a)(b)(c) bounce completed. Yet, that decline really counts best as a corrective one rather than a CLEAR 5-wave decline. Of course, I can force a 5-wave count to it with a VERY extended 5th wave. But, I think the more likely and reasonable view is that the decline was a corrective 3-wave decline.And, as I said in the weekend update, if the decline is not a CLEAR 5-wave decline, then I would have to objectively look higher again.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

Not much changes in the bigger picture. As Ecclesiastes noted, there is nothing new under the sun. If you take the time to look back to the last time we struck a major top in the metals (2011), you will see the exact same analysts that were, at that time, claiming that we were only “getting started” with the metals rally, as they were falling over each other claiming higher targets than the next. At the time, the only argument one would see amongst them was how far beyond the 2000 level gold would rally.Well, today, they are lining up in the same way. Many are now calling for levels well exceeding 5000 in gold and 100 in silver.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Bounce In Progress - Market Analysis for Oct 13th, 2025

After being so stretched to the downside in Friday’s decline, it was not hard to expect a bounce to develop early this week. But, the question with then be how the market pulls back from this bounce?Well, thus far, the pullback has been corrective. And as I noted in the weekend update, until the market provides to us an indication that it will continue lower, we are forced to continue looking higher.Another wrinkle in our charts is that the ES dropped a bit further than the SPX, which does cause a bit of complication.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Hovering For The Last Week

Over the last week the SPX has been hovering and generally holding the 6700SPX region. Right now, that is an initial signal level for me. Until we break that support, the upside still has potential up towards the next larger degree Fib level in the 6830 region. However, should the market first break the 6700SPX support, then it finally can open the door to more of a pullback. Of course, the 6550 level is going to be the tougher nut to crack. But, should we see follow through below that, then we will have a date with the next all-important support in the 6212-6360SPX region. As I noted in an alert this morning:“Please keep your eyes on the big picture.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Free 15-Day Trial

• S&P 500 Wave Analysis
• Gold, Silver, Oil & US Dollar Reports
• Stocks, Options, Cryptocurrencies & more
• Live Coaching & Webinars

OUR MEMBERS SAY ...

I live Finance. 80hrs a week corp finance. I trade as a hobby and in my opinion this is the best site in the world for someone to learn about markets... i rue the day when it is no more or its core is changed. there is NO BETTER SITE IN THE WORLD to get the off-cuff input/feedback/knowledge across ALL MARKETS like this site... Thank you to the analysts here who grind out thousands of charts each week.
"GibsonDog" - Trading Room

My faith in God and my faith in Avi and his team. God lead me to this service over 10 years ago. For a decade I have heard Avi point his bat at this very moment in time calling this S&P level. Though the years I have witnessed him point his bat months, even years before metals hit their highs and lows with almost perfect big picture accuracy. Against every other analysts opinion. I have seen him bullied relentlessly on his public articles on SA and stick to his guns and proven so correct with no one ever apologizing or admitting he called it.
"sdmavrick" - Seeking Alpha

My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
"AAMilne" - Trading Room

I’ve subscribed for 5 years now and I have to say I see that you’ve been right on this the whole time. Who would’ve thought gold and silver would’ve rallied with rates this high for this long and the markets continued higher as well. Always thought your charts were good but always thought in the back of my mind that rate cuts and other news actually led. So now that I’ve admitted defeat u are free to gloat. Well deserved
"Lil_G" - Seeking Alpha

I worked on trading desks at top investment banks for 10 years, then traded on my own for another 8. I've seen 100s of research from the best analysts in the business. Avi and EWT is the only one I'm willing to pay for right now.
"tzeyi" - Seeking Alpha

“I was 100% in equities and been killing it for 2 years, but I heeded your warning and took everything off the table. I've been cautiously trading your recommendations and now when everyone I know is getting wrecked, I'm still profiting. Thank you so much for what you do, my family and future are safe because of it.”
"DoctorBeat" - Trading Room

This service has not only made me money in trades but equally important it got me out of the market before the meltdown.
"BigDaddyTuna" - Trading Room

"Your service and insight is phenomenal, and has definitely changed my outlook on the market. I’ve been actively working on recruiting new members to your service. It’ll save their financial life."
"Bidking82" - Trading Room

"Today, I achieved my highest weekly profit ever ....I see this as a testament to the power of the guidance available here. I ignored all narratives and traded the charts with discipline. I set clear parameters for each trade, immediately placing OCO (One Cancels the Other) orders with both stops and limits. I made some adjustments as the charts evolved, but kept the orders in place, and allowed the process to unfold. Sincere thanks to all the analysts and members who help make this such an incredible community—especially Avi, Zac, Mike, Levi, and Garrett. I'm incredibly grateful!"
"Dre-" - Trading Room

CNBC had a stat this morning that over the last 20 years 86% of money managers/hedge funds have underperformed the market. They couldn't figure out why that’s the case given how 'smart' these people are. . . . I know my performance since joining the site has skyrocketed!
"HenryH" - Trading Room

Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Free 15-Day Trial

OUR MEMBERS SAY ...

We Value Your Privacy