Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Both Sides Are Getting Neutralized

With today’s rally taking out the wave ii high, I cannot say we are left with any reliable wave counts right now. What remains on the bearish side is an ending diagonal for the (c) wave down, within which we are completing a VERY deep b-wave of wave 3. And, yes, the depth of this b-wave certainly makes me question this count as well.Yet, the bullish count we are left with as the yellow alternative leaves a tremendous amount to be desired. Both from a structure standpoint and a wave relationship ratio standpoint, it is an exceptionally unreliable count overall. Yet, it may become the last man standing.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Bounce In Progress - Market Analysis for Sep 2nd, 2026

Thus far, the metals charts are playing out reasonably well. And, with the manner in which we have rallied thus far, it is looking much more like a corrective rally, so the probabilities of the first path I outlined in my last update has dropped (that this correction has completed). Rather, it seems that this is a corrective bounce which will likely lead to another drop.What has not been determined yet is if that next drop will be pointing us to lower lows or not.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

What Is Considered A “Break-Down?”

When we provide analysis, we often discuss that a “break-down” will open the door to a larger decline. And, sometimes we see the market break that cited support, only to come back again. So, I am often asked how can we determine if something is truly broken?The reason I am addressing this now is that we had two perfect examples of how the market supposedly “broke” the cited 7625ES level, but we did not get the waterfall decline. So, I thought this a perfect time to discuss it, especially since the market showed us two ways it “breaks” a level but does not really break that level.The first was seen yesterday after my update was posted.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Are We Really Going Down?

Well, as of the time of my writing this update, the impulsive upside set up for wave (v) in yellow has clearly invalidated and there is a very clear set up that is pointing us down to at least the 7400SPX region for a 3rd wave decline. And, the key point to note is that as long as yesterday’s high (wave ii) is not breached, pressure will remain down in this set up.In the micro structure, we have either completed waves (i)(ii) of wave iii of 3 or we are only completing wave (i) as I write this, and we can still see more of a wave (ii) bounce. But, once the market breaks down below 7625ES (the .
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Three Paths Before Us

As the title noted, we have three paths before us in the metals.The first path is that this correction is nearly completed with the current downside action. GDX has almost reached its .382 retracement region, which is the top of the support box. Gold is approaching its .500 retracement. And, silver is hovering just below its .382 retracement. So, minimum targets have been met. And, if we see a clearly impulsive rally begin, then we will have to begin focusing on the upside again.The second path – which for now is my favored – suggests that this completes the initial leg lower. In both gold and silver that would be an (a) wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Bears Are Trying - Market Analysis for Aug 31st, 2026

With the lower low we saw today, the bears are certainly trying their best. You see, this now looks like a really nice 5-wave decline, which would tip the scales towards this being wave i of 3 down in the more bearish (c) wave path.In looking at the bullish side, in order this to retain its wave ii status, it would mean that the SPX had an a-b-c pullback, wherein the c-wave was equal to .618 the size of the a-wave. This is not a common ratio we see within a-b-c structures. It is much more common in a 5-wave structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Don’t Bank On It: A Troubled Community Bank in New Jersey

With this article, we continue our new series, “Don’t Bank On It,” which we intend to write for the foreseeable future. Those of you who have been following our public banking articles know that we have been highlighting the major existential issues currently sitting on many bank balance sheets. In this series, we focus on the existential issues found on one specific bank’s balance sheet. We also challenge readers to figure out which bank we are covering in each article. Our next highlighted bank is a publicly listed US community bank with roughly $3B in assets. It operates mainly in New Jersey and looks like a traditional conservative local bank.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Double Bottoms Cause EW Issues

The problem with double bottoms is that they leave the door open to two reasonable interpretations of the wave count. And, of late, we are dealing with that issue.If you look at the attached 15-minute ES chart, you will see a great example of this type of problem.As you can see, there is a reasonable wave count which provides us with a 5-wave decline off a (b) wave high, which we have labeled as wave 1. Thereafter, we have a bounce, followed by a slightly lower low, which I have noted as a potential a-b structure. This has been followed by a 5-wave diagonal, which can be accounted for as a c-wave in a bigger wave 2 bounce.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

It’s A Pullback, But Not Enough

While we are seeing the metals “pullback,” I cannot say that this is really enough to suggest the bigger pullback we are expecting has begun. Rather, I would want to see all 3 charts break below their .236 retracement levels. That would make me more confident that the bigger pullback is in progress.And, to be honest, while I usually provide you with a great depth of insight in the metals updates, there really is not much more to say. I would strongly urge you to listen to my full-member video this morning as well. But, for now, we have no CLEAR indication that this rally has topped. And, everything that I noted in the weekend update is still very much applicable.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Moar Sideways - Market Analysis for Aug 25th, 2026

I am not sure if there is anything I can add at this point, as the market really has not made much of a move since yesterday. So, the general parameters as outlined yesterday still very much apply at this time. And, it seems the market is waiting for a catalyst to ignite its next move.The one additional point I can add is that the MACD on the 60-minute chart has dropped to levels from which prior rallies have begun. So, it does reinforce the yellow being our primary count unless and until support is broken.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Playing Around Over Support

I can’t say much has really changed with today’s action. The market made a slightly lower low but still held over support. And, as long as we hold over support, the yellow count is still quite alive and well.But, in order to make the yellow count a much higher probability, we will still need to see a 5-wave rally back towards the highs for wave i of (v). Until that happens, this can still become quite precarious and see a break-down of support.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Metals Are Doing Everything Right . . And Then Some

As I posted earlier this week, there was potential for silver and gold to attempt a 5th wave off the July lows. And, as of my writing this update, gold has seen a higher high, but silver has been lagging. There is still potential for it to do so, so we will watch that carefully.GDX has not only given us 5 waves up, but the 4th wave was extremely shallow, as it hovered around the .236 retracement of the 3rd wave. And, with this extension higher now, we have the minimum number of waves in place for 5 waves up, which is exactly what we wanted to see to make it a higher probability that the next major rally has begun.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Small Change Of Plans

Needless to say, the high we struck last week leaves a lot to be desired as a completed wave v, which I mentioned yesterday. But, we have to take what the market gives us, and I now have to view wave (iii) as complete with that less than a desirable structure, as well as coming up a bit short of the ideal 1.618 extension. But, this is now how I am forced to count it.Yes, there are other interpretations as well, but I think this is the cleanest of the choices.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Getting A Bit Too Big

While I have been calling this pullback a wave (4) within wave v of (iii) (or c of (b) in the alternative count), the current pullback is getting to be a bit big for this wave (4). Yet, please recognize that it does not invalidate as a wave (4) until we break below the low of wave (2). So, for now, I am still leaving my count as this being a wave (4).But, that means we are going to need to see a rally begin rather soon or this runs the risk of invalidation. And, in truth, I cannot say that there is a better count, as the count as shown makes the most sense from multiple perspectives.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Interesting Potential - Market Analysis for Aug 17th, 2026

IF you remember, before we even caught a bottom in metals, I told you that I was going to be open to the market providing us with a 5-wave rally off the lows.  And, if we do see that in gold and silver, then the probabilities would increase that we could rally to new highs across the board.  I said this MANY MANY times.Well, there is potential for us to get 5 waves up in gold.  Silver has a similar potential but I am not as confident in the wave 1 in that instance as it does not count as well as a 5-wave structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Losing Steam - Market Analysis for Aug 13th, 2026

While the market finally began the rally we wanted to see to the next target overhead, the manner in which we seem to have rallied is leaving a bit to be desired from a structure standpoint.As a purist, I would view the rally today as completing the 3rd wave within wave (3) of v of (iii). That means we need one more rally to complete just wave (3) of v of (iii).  But, something looks off about the structure.So, for now, I am going to remain a purist and expect another rally to complete wave (3).
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Metals Got A Rest – But, No Downside Yet

We came into this week with the metals getting a rest with sideways action, but no downside has yet been seen. And, this was followed by another extension today. And, yes, there can still be one more small move higher before this wave completes, but it is still quite extended. Moreover, I still think it is quite reasonable to expect some downside in the coming week.What is interesting is that the more this extends in just this move alone, the greater the probabilities swing towards the bottom being in place already. What is also interesting is that gold and GDX have taken out their initial resistances, whereas silver still has not.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Still Set Up For Upside

Not much has really changed since my last update. The only thing that I can add is that we seem to be filling out a c-wave within wave (2) on the 5-minute SPX chart. And, to remind you, as long as we remain over the 7700SPX region, this (1)(2) is set up to rally to the target box overhead in wave v of (iii).Alternatively, a break of 7698SPX would suggest that wave iv in yellow was not yet complete. But, since the decline from yesterday’s high is looking rather corrective, and a break down below 7698SPX would normally be seen as an impulsive c-wave decline, I have to view this as the lesser probability path for now.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Path Of Least Resistance Seems Up

With the lack of any bearish indications thus far, and the fact that we are clearly over support, it suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside. And, our next target is outlined by the box overhead on the 5-minute SPX chart in the 7864-7914SPX region. This represents the 1.618-1.764 extensions of waves (i)(ii), and is the typical target zone for wave (iii).In the very micro structure, I an make an argument for a (1)(2) to be developing within wave v of (iii). Clearly, we need to hold support over 7698SPX for this to be applicable. Any break down below that support suggests that wave iv is not yet done.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Don’t Bank on It: Nothing Is Good In California

With this report, we continue the “Don’t Bank On It” format: a concentrated review of the existential risks sitting on one bank’s balance sheet. We also challenge readers to figure out which bank we are covering in each article. Our fourth highlighted bank is a publicly listed US bank with more than $30B in assets. Its branch network, deposit franchise, and a substantial portion of its real-estate lending are focused on California.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Metals: Pre-Weekend Update

With the continued strength in the metals complex, it has to make us strongly consider that the bottom is already in place. So, let's discuss it.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Slowly Leaking Lower - Market Analysis for Aug 6th, 2026

With the market seemingly topping in wave iii of (iii) of wave i in the yellow count, we have spent yesterday and today slowly leaking lower to the support box below. I want to note now that we do not have to actually strike the support box before wave iv is complete. The main point is that as long as we pullback correctively and hold over that support box, then the next expectation is for a wave v of (iii) rally once this completes.I want to also note that if the market should choose the more bearish path, then we would see a 5-wave decline which would project to at least the bottom of the ES support box.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Getting More Interesting - Market Analysis for Aug 5th, 2026

With the move today, the metals market is certainly getting more interesting.GDX has now moved beyond its 1.00 extension off the lows, which MAY suggest this is a 3rd wave in a leading diagonal. Yes, I know I am not a fan of leading diagonals. But, if we do complete one here, I would strongly consider it as the first wave in the next major move higher. But, I will need to see a CLEAR corrective pullback thereafter before I am willing to add the remaining amount of cash I am holding.At this time, I would like to see a corrective pullback in wave (iv), followed by a higher high in wave (v), which should ideally target the 87 region.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Bulls Are Seemingly Back In Control

After the market moved through the 7654SPX level, it was a strong sign that the bulls have taken back control. And, despite all the misgivings I have had with the yellow count, it seems I am forced to adopt a VERY shallow 2nd wave retracement once again.Currently, the bulls have control as long as they hold over the micro pivot I have outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart – which is now the wave iv of (iii) support, which coincides with the wave iv of (iii) support box I have noted on the 15-minute ES chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Explaining The Analysis - Market Analysis for Aug 3rd, 2026

Some of you are questioning why the 7580SPX level was so important to my analysis, and why a break of that region – even by a point – was so key in my work.Well, first, one of the structures we were tracking was a i-ii downside set up. However, that set up fully invalidates when the market moves even one penny beyond the start of wave i. You see, that is one of the few rules that are set in stone in Elliott Wave analysis. A 2nd wave can never retrace more than the start of wave i, at which time, the structure invalidates.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago
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