Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

How Much Further Downside?

With the market remaining below the high struck yesterday, we completed the b-wave triangle, and have followed through with the downside expectation in the c-wave. The question now is if this decline is done?At this time, I am still unsure if this current decline has the dreaded one more lower low. But, even if we do see that lower low, the bigger picture remains the same. It still centers around the lack of evidence that a top has indeed been struck. We have no strong reversal indicating a diagonal has completed, nor have we broken support. In fact, this current decline is still holding the initial support region outlined on the ES chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 hour ago

Just Going Sideways - Market Analysis for Nov 3rd, 2025

When the market moves sideways for a period of time as we have now seen since Thursday, it forces us to consider a triangle is taking shape. And, the type of triangle this seems to be tracing out is a b-wave triangle.So, I can keep today’s analysis rather simple. As long as this morning’s high is respected, then I am viewing us as being in an (e) wave of a b-wave triangle. That basically means that as long as we remain below this morning’s high, pressure will be down and a c-wave can develop over the coming day or so which can test the lower end of the initial support region.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Can You Double Your Money With Silver?

The talk of the town in the metals complex has been focused on gold. But, I think silver has yet to see its final parabolic move.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Oct 30th, 2025

I want to reiterate in this update that my preference is still to see more of a "bounce" in the metals chart for a bigger and deeper (b) wave before we begin a (c) wave decline. However, the market has been developing potential signals that could suggest we go down sooner than currently expected. So, I wanted to send out a quick update.The most clear picture of a more immediate downside potential is in gold. Earlier today, I sent out the following Alert in the main room:"I am being VERY cautious in gold right now due to the other potential paths.

by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Getting A Bit More Complex

While the metals market provided us with another bounce, the structure of that bounce was not at all indicative of a standard c-wave rally, which would have completed a larger b-wave bounce. You see, c-waves are most often 5-wave structures. And, thus far, all we have seen is another 3-wave bounce. This leaves the door open for several paths.Let’s start with gold. As you know, I am trying to track a (b) wave bounce, which would set up a (c) wave decline. However, if we are going to see a (b) wave bounce taking us higher in the coming days, we are now at important support for a b-wave within that structure.

by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Market Testing Micro Support

I really do not have much to add to yesterday's analysis. But, today we did see a pullback towards the smaller degree uptrend line, as we are holding over the initial support box. So, as it stands as I write this update, nothing has broken. And, a VERY stretched market can continue to choose even higher levels to strike before we finally complete this very long uptrend. As I said in metals as we were striking the highs, you have to determine how much risk you want to take up here.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Simply Amazing - Market Analysis for Oct 28th, 2025

As I wrote earlier today:“I am truly astounded that we have been able to approach the 7000 region without more than a .236 retracement. It is truly amazing. But, it has done its job . . it has made people absolutely believe in the invincibility of the US equity market.”In fact, if you are given this larger degree structure without more than a .236 retracement the entire way up, 8 or 9 out of 10 times this would not likely be the result, in my humble opinion. That is why I view this as such an anomaly, as it is so rare to see this type of move.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Pushing Upside Targets - Market Analysis for Oct 27th, 2025

Over the weekend, I outlined the upside targets/resistance in the 6832-54SPX region. And, today’s gap up moved past that initial resistance region. But, on the 15-minute ES chart, we have been hitting our head on the 2.00 extension of waves (1)(2) in the ending diagonal structure I have been tracking of late. And, I still think this is a very reasonable interpretation.However, for this interpretation to bear fruit, it would mean a strong reversal below the wave (4) low should begin imminently. And, due to how incredibly stretched this rally has become off the April low without more than a .236 retracement, I have a hard time expecting even further gains.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Downside Being Seen, But, Weaker Than Expected

I was unable to write an update as I was at doctor appointments this morning. So, I am going to outline what I am seeing so you can understand my conclusions.While we did see a “bounce” last week, that bounce only went to the .382 retracement of the prior decline. While it is “possible” that this was all the (b) wave we are going to get, as shown by the alt (b) noted on the charts, this is clearly not my primary expectation. In fact, I still think it is reasonable to expect more of a bounce. Let me explain.To see a (b) wave that only retraces .

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Looking For A “Bounce”

We have seen quite the selloff in the metals complex. When the rubber band is stretched to an extreme in one direction, the snap back can be quite painful. And, I tried to warn quite vehemently about a potential for such a reversal, but too many were busy cheerleading.While I was able to identify the blow-off top occurring in real-time last week in gold, we are now down to the initial support regions on our various charts. In GC and GDX, we are now at the lower end of the upper support box. In silver, we almost struck the top of the major support box. And, thus far, all count best as 3-wave declines.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Why Do I Bother?

I can’t remember the last time we completed a solid 5-wave, standard Fibonacci Pinball, impulsive structure in the ES/SPX pointing up. So, I wonder why I even bothered trying to track one of late. But, needless to say, the decline below the pivot today has spoiled that pattern as well.At this time, we are left with a potential ending diagonal pointing us to one more higher high, or the c-wave decline. While I cannot count a solid 5-wave decline to strongly suggest the c-wave down has begun, it is still just as viable a path right now as the ending diagonal.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Something Is About To Happen

With the market hovering just below the 1.236 extension of yellow waves (1)(2), there are several options I will outline.I will start with what I view as the primary count presented in yellow. This suggests we are in the c-wave of wave 5, and as long as we hold over the pivot in a corrective fashion, I will maintain this as my primary and look for the next move to the 6845ES region to complete wave (3).Of course, I have to reasonably track two alternatives. First, since we have rallied to the 1.236 extension of waves (1)(2), we have to consider that we may be completing the c-wave as an ending diagonal. You see, wave (3) of a diagonal targets the 1.236 extension of waves (1)(2).

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Is That All We Get?

Silver is currently attempting to complete a (c) wave down. And, of course, the question is going to be if this is all we get?So far, we have come up a bit short of the .236 minimum target we set for this pullback. Moreover, we clearly are well shy of the multi-week correction that the 2010-2011 fractal suggested we could see. But, at the same time, the MACD has now moved down into the reset posture, which can now support a larger degree rally.Moving over to gold we also seem to be completing an a-b-c flat, which may be all of the alt iv. Yet, GDX really is well short of even an *a)=(c).

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Upside Open To New Highs

With today’s action, I can eliminate several of the paths we have been tracking and we have simply a primary and alternative. Overall, the same perspective from the weekend update is still applicable: As long as we remain over the pullback low of last week, we are looking towards higher highs.However, now we can adjust that support to a higher level. If you look at the attached 15-minute ES chart, you will see that the yellow path is pointing us higher for as long as the market does not break back down below the pivot in impulsive fashion. As long as we see a corrective pullback holding that pivot, I am looking higher.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Consolidation Before Higher?

As I said over the weekend, we will have to see how the market reacts to the downside once the bounce we expected this week completed. And, that now refers to the decline that was seen yesterday after the (a)(b)(c) bounce completed. Yet, that decline really counts best as a corrective one rather than a CLEAR 5-wave decline. Of course, I can force a 5-wave count to it with a VERY extended 5th wave. But, I think the more likely and reasonable view is that the decline was a corrective 3-wave decline.And, as I said in the weekend update, if the decline is not a CLEAR 5-wave decline, then I would have to objectively look higher again.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

Not much changes in the bigger picture. As Ecclesiastes noted, there is nothing new under the sun. If you take the time to look back to the last time we struck a major top in the metals (2011), you will see the exact same analysts that were, at that time, claiming that we were only “getting started” with the metals rally, as they were falling over each other claiming higher targets than the next. At the time, the only argument one would see amongst them was how far beyond the 2000 level gold would rally.Well, today, they are lining up in the same way. Many are now calling for levels well exceeding 5000 in gold and 100 in silver.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Bounce In Progress - Market Analysis for Oct 13th, 2025

After being so stretched to the downside in Friday’s decline, it was not hard to expect a bounce to develop early this week. But, the question with then be how the market pulls back from this bounce?Well, thus far, the pullback has been corrective. And as I noted in the weekend update, until the market provides to us an indication that it will continue lower, we are forced to continue looking higher.Another wrinkle in our charts is that the ES dropped a bit further than the SPX, which does cause a bit of complication.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Hovering For The Last Week

Over the last week the SPX has been hovering and generally holding the 6700SPX region. Right now, that is an initial signal level for me. Until we break that support, the upside still has potential up towards the next larger degree Fib level in the 6830 region. However, should the market first break the 6700SPX support, then it finally can open the door to more of a pullback. Of course, the 6550 level is going to be the tougher nut to crack. But, should we see follow through below that, then we will have a date with the next all-important support in the 6212-6360SPX region. As I noted in an alert this morning:“Please keep your eyes on the big picture.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Largest Single Day Decline Since Rally Began

Today gold has experienced the largest single day decline since this rally began. The question of course is if this is the wave iv in blue or if we have finally begun a larger degree correction for wave (4)?As I am writing this update, the market is approaching the top of the support box for the alt iv. That is the 3930 region. We will have to watch this action very carefully in the coming days. As long as all bounces are corrective, we can maintain a reasonable expectation for at least one more decline. That means we can view this as an a-wave decline today, with the expectation of a b-wave corrective bounce.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Quick Note On Bigger Picture

For years, we have been expecting silver and GDX to provide a catch up move. And, now they are there. In fact, all charts are now pointing to only one 4th and 5th wave left before this cycle is likely completed.Today, silver seems to be breaking out in the 5th smaller degree wave which will likely complete wave (3) in its long term cycle. Gold is past that, but is now trying to complete its wave (3) in its final 5th, and GDX seems aligned with silver. So, I still very much think it is reasonable to expect a larger degree 4th wave still to come across the board.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Switching Gears A Little – But, Does Not Change Bigger Picture

The one thing I am doing right now is I am taking off the b-wave potential on this rally, and simply calling it an extension in the 3rd wave in both GLD/GC and GDX. But, in the bigger picture, that really does not change much, as it still has me expecting a larger degree 4th wave, with a 5th wave thereafter yet to come.In GDX, our initial support now is in the 68 region, and we will need to break below that support to suggest that a larger degree 4th wave is in progress.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Quick Metals Update - Market Analysis for Oct 6th, 2025

Since I will not be here for the next two days, I wanted to post a quick update on metals.First, with silver hitting a higher high, I have adjusted the count as per the outline in the weekend analysis:"With the market pushing higher in silver, I have added the alternative that 4 is done. Again, I do not see this as a high probability. But, we have to at least know where we have to shift into this path.If the market only provides us a corrective pullback in the coming days, and then breaks back out over the high we strike in this move then that likely puts us in wave (3) of 5 of (3).

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

While Initial Target Achieved, No Signs Of A Top YET

While the market has struck the ideal target on our ES chart, it has not provided any downside follow through from Friday’s strong reaction from the ideal target level. So, without the typical reaction we see when a diagonal completes, it suggests that the diagonal has not indeed completed yet.So, in the near term, the market can still grind higher into the resistance box on the 15-minute ES chart. But, please do realize that should the market break down below the wave 4 low on that chart in the 6680ES region, that is an initial signal that a near term top has been struck.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Is It Finally Pullback Time?

Needless to say, we are overdue for pullback time. And, the best evidence I have of that is in silver.With the market making it clear that it is completing wave 3 of (3), the micro count in that move still suggested we had a bit higher to reach before wave 3 was complete. At this time, I can say that almost all the squiggles are now in place to consider that count as complete. But, as we know, the metals have ralied quite strongly, and we need some confirmatory evidence that we have indeed completed wave 3 and are in progress within wave 4.So, I have added two signal levels on the 8-minute silver chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

The Floor Is Creaking

As I write this, the market is seemingly making an attempt to break down towards the 6550SPX region next. I have added a 1-2 count on the 5-minute SPX chart to suggest that the c-wave down has indeed begun. But, with all the overlap we have seen today, it is hard to yet determine if wave 2 is complete. There is still potential that the market may try to rally one more time to complete the wave 2.The main point remains the same though: As long as yesterday’s high is respected, I still believe that the preponderance of the evidence is pointing lower. And, breaking down below 6604SPX will make this a much higher probability.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

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Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

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