Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Staying Objective - Market Analysis for Jan 8th, 2026

I warned yesterday that, even though the market has extended beyond reason and well beyond any norms, we still must stay objective and not assume we will immediately head into a bearish environment until support breaks. So, along those lines, I am trying to identify a long set up while we are still over support.I am including an ES chart in this update because you cannot see this potential set up in the SPX. As you can see from the attached 15 minute chart, there is potential for a leading diagonal for wave (i) of iii pointing us ultimately towards the 7150-7175SPX region if it triggers. But, we do not even have the set up in place yet.

by Avi Gilburt - 11 hours ago

The Messy Metals March Higher

While we caught a nice low a little over a week ago, the rally off that low was quite promising as a standard structure . . . until today. But, as I was noting yesterday in my updates and in the trading room, something seemed “off” about the structure. Now, the best I can get is an ending diagonal for wave 5.So, let’s look at the charts and see where we stand, as it is not simple, especially when we look at gold.In silver, the alternative we were tracking thus far was presented in yellow, and would provide a c-wave decline to complete a larger wave 4 structure.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Approaching Target - Market Analysis for Jan 6th, 2026

With the market holding support in wave v, today’s rally is attempting to make a push towards the target overhead. However, the structure of this last segment higher has turned overlapping, so it can represent several potentials in the micro count.The least bullish is that we are topping as I write this update, as the futures could argue for this wave v to be an ending diagonal. The more bullish scenario is that we have a (i)(ii) set up in this wave v, which can project us up towards the 6980SPX region. So, let’s talk about support.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Market Trying For Another 5 Waves

With the market providing us with the potential i-ii on Friday, which I highlighted over the weekend, we are now trying to complete a 5-wave rally back towards the highs. But, of course, there is still the potential red alternative count which can take the market down in a big way. For now, the bulls have the ball.There is an additional bigger picture point I would like to make at this time. We really cannot entertain any bearish count as a high probability until we AT LEAST break down below Friday’s low.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Still Looking Up . . . BUT

With the market following through early in the week to the upside and not seemingly likely to break down in a major (c) wave decline YET, I just wanted to add one more potential path to the mix, as we like to try to stay at least one step ahead of the market.With the market invalidating the red alternative count as shown over the weekend in GDX, and almost invalidating it in silver, I have to put another alternative path before you. That is represented by the yellow larger (a)(b)(c) shown in GDX and silver right now. This is clearly not as bearish as the prior alternative count.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Here Is A Shocker: Oil Is Going Lower

Oil is going to be heading lower, and everyone is now going to believe it is because of what is happening in Venezuela. But, anyone who has been following my analysis for the last year knows that this has been on our charts for quite some time.

by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Just Be Aware - Market Analysis for Jan 2nd, 2026

This is not going to be a long update, but I do have to outline what you need to look for to become much more protective in the metals complex.As I have noted many times, if we get 5 waves down off the high in gold, it will put us on watch for a potential 1-2 down pointing us towards a (c) wave decline to the 3800 region. And, with the 1-2 potential in place now in yellow, the action from the rally high this morning is a potential 5-waves down also.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Long Set Up Developing

With the market finally providing to us a sizeable pullback, we are now at the support region for both gold and silver. So, let’s start with silver.As we can see on the 144-minute chart, price has come down to the top of the support box, and the MACD has now dropped down to the oversold region from which prior rallies have begun. So, this is a general buying signal. The only question is whether the low for this c-wave of wave 4 is in place yet. But, with the decline yesterday really only counting best as a 3-wave drop, I cannot say with a high degree of confidence that it has completed.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Looks Like A Triangle

With the sideways action today, it does look like the market is trying to trace out a triangle. While we most commonly see triangles in b-wave and 4th wave positions, it seems a bit big to be a 4th wave in the c-wave of wave 4. So, by process of elimination, I think it may be a b-wave triangle, with a c-wave decline to the support likely our next step.So, to keep this simple, as long a we remain below 6913SPX, then I can look for a c-wave decline, which seems to be pointing towards the lower end of the support box.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Enough For Wave 4?

This is a pretty straight forward update to write. We have been expecting a smaller degree wave 4 pullback, and today we may have completed it. The smaller degree structure approached the pivot in the SPX (whereas the ES struck the top of its pivot to the penny), and it also exhibited positive divergence near the lows today. So, there is a strong potential that wave 4 may be done. And, once we get a larger degree 5-wave structure off the low, we can set our sights for wave 5. But, I must warn you. There is a strong probability we may come up short of the 7000SPX level.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Mixed Signals In Metals Suggests SOME Caution Going Forward

As I warned in the weekend update, silver was getting a bit overheated and was concerning me about a potential early blow off top. So, the bigger caution issue I am seeing on my charts is now the silver chart. If you remember back in the spring, as I was outlining the potential parabolic rally we were expecting, we based our views upon the 2010-2011 market fractal for its parabolic rally and blow off top. As the market began that rally, we were able to then assign a general target region for that rally, which we placed on the weekly SLV chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Amazing How All the Metal Heads Think This Time is Different

They come up with the same old reasons and believe this time is different. Some of them even try to come up with some new reasons. They are the creative ones. But, they all have one thing in common . . . they are wrong. This time is NOT different.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Moving The Pivot Up

With the market seemingly completing the wave iv of wave 3 in the bullish count with a pullback this morning to the 1.00 extension of waves 1-2, the market seems to be rallying in wave v of 3. The typical target for that wave degree is the 1.618 extension of waves 1-2, which is the 6915SPX region.However, with wave iv of 3 only pulling back to the 1.00 extension, it does open the door that we can see an extension in wave v of 3. But, even if we do, I am still not seeing much to suggest we will see an appreciable push through the 6950SPX region. But, we will see how extended wave v of 3 becomes before we make any final determinations regarding wave 5.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Holding The Pivot - Market Analysis for Dec 22nd, 2025

We expected that the market will likely make a decision as to whether it wants to head directly to higher highs early this week. And, the gap up today has now made the pivot on the 5-minute SPX chart our primary focus. Remember, when the market rallies to the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2, then it is likely that we will hold the .764 extension as support for wave iv if we are in wave 3. And, that is where I believe we are right now within the bullish count. That now means that, if the market has intentions of new highs over the coming week or two, then we will not break back down below the pivot.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Bullish Set Up In Place

While I cannot guarantee how the market is going to move, I can outline potential set ups which present a good risk/reward type of structure. And, I am seeing one now in SPX.With the market bottoming around the .500 retracement and the original target we had for this last decline, we have rallied in what counts relatively well as a 5-wave structure off the low. I would then view that as wave 1 of the (c) wave. Thereafter, we had a sharp pullback, which is a bit clouded in its structure, but which I am assuming is a wave 2.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Silver Will Never Come Down Again

The way the silver rally has extended, it sure feels like it will never come down again, especially as many are now suggesting targets of $200 in the near term for silver. But, needless to say, the wave structure is rather full – and then some – for this segment of the rally. And, I still am expecting one more pullback before the final phase of this rally likely takes hold. Yet, for now, after cashing in some of my shorter dated aggressive long positions, I am still holding my final aggressive longer-dated positions (all bought near the October lows, as announced in the trading room) and will simply add to them on the next pullback.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Just More Overlap - Market Analysis for Dec 16th, 2025

As I posted earlier this morning, while the overnight session initially followed through on the downside set up, the rally off the overnight low provided overlap which made the downside set up much less likely as a standard impulsive (c) wave. And, when the SPX opened and spiked the 6800SPX level, only to spike back over it again, it was a warning that the cash index was likely to do the same.Based upon the preceding points, I cannot say as confidently that this will continue in a direct fashion down to the 6700SPX region and the .500 retracement region.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Setting Up To Test The Support Box Below

With the market spiking higher this morning into the open, we seem to have completed a (b) wave consolidation structure. You can see this labeled on the attached 5-minute SPX chart. This now suggests that the market is setting up a (c) wave decline to test the support box below.Assuming waves i-ii are already in place, then this structure is projecting towards the .500 retracement region. Of course, we will need to next see a break down below the 6800 region, which is the low struck on Friday, before we break over today’s high in order to make this our likely path and target.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Overnight Action Has Delayed Santa

While the market had a “reasonable” ending diagonal potential to take us to new higher and complete a (c) wave, the night monkeys put one of their wrenches into the works and screwed that up. I mean, it’s not like a diagonal is such a reliable structure to begin with. But, it now leaves us in a no-man’s land within the market highs and the 6810SPX support. And, thus far, that support still seems to be holding. Yet, this overlapping action we have seen for all of December can be counted in a number of ways. In fact, we can even call the bottom of a more complex (b) wave, and another diagonal starting off that low.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Is This The Final Move?

For those that remember early this year, I was strongly urging that we prepare for what will likely be a parabolic run and catch up move in silver. In fact, I attached the “conservative” chart path I laid out in the spring. I even noted at the time that I would not be surprised if the final 5th wave higher would provide us with many $2+ days of rally. And, that is what we are seeing of late.So, of course, this is begging the question “is this the final move higher?”I am still struggling with that answer, as I still think silver has a bigger pullback coming.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Still Over 6810SPX - Market Analysis for Dec 10th, 2025

The market has been unable to break below the triangle consolidation, which has left the upside open. And, this afternoon, we have broken any immediate set up for a drop to take us to the bigger (b) wave support box below.That now means that as long as we remain over 6810SPX, we have to continue to look higher to the target box overhead.While I would love to give you a clear micro count to work with, the overlap seen since the triangle structure does not allow me to do so. So, it only leaves me with looking higher for as long as we remain over 6810SPX.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Just More Sideways Action

Unfortunately, there really is not much for me to add to the recent analysis on SPX, as the market is simply grinding sideways in a corrective manner. What I will say is that the decline we experienced from Friday's high seems to best count as a 3-wave decline. That means the yellow b-wave seems to be the least likely of the paths right now. And, as long as we remain over 6810SPX, the bulls remain in control.But, if there is a path to take us lower, it would suggest that we are in an a-b-c structure pointing down to the support box below.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Silver’s Time To Shine

While silver is pushing into the minimum expected target region we set a while ago, I cannot say that this changes much in the analysis. I am still uncertain as to which of the paths silver is going to take higher, as this is just a 5th wave in all the potential paths I have posted. And, yes, I still expect a pullback. But, as the analysis presented over the last week noted, I am still not sure how deep that pullback will be. And, based upon the depth of the pullback, we will have a much better idea as to how high silver can travel in its larger 5th wave.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

As The Market Meanders

When I was a young child, I remember my grandmother watching a soap opera called “As The World Turns.” Well, we seem to be stuck in another similar type of soap opera in the market, which I am now entitling “As The Market Meanders.”We have been stuck moving back and forth in this region now for over 3 months. And, while we are still very stretched to the upside, the market has yet to provide us any evidence that a top of any larger degree has indeed been struck. The 6550SPX support region has held on many tests. But, now we are meandering in a smaller range.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

FCX: Learning Opportunity Regarding Fibonacci Pinball

I do not often discuss individual stocks, but this one has presented a wonderful learning opportunity, so I decided to do a write up.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

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Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

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