Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

An Exercise In Patience

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by Avi Gilburt - 44 minutes ago

Layering In As We Speak

With the metals approaching our initial target zones to mark the end of this correction which began in January, I have personally now deployed approximately 50% of the capital I have designated for buying mining stocks. And, if I may remind you, our MMA analysts have put out a buying list of individual mining stocks earlier this week. So, let’s look at each of the charts individually. Starting with silver, as I have said, I am going to leave the count I have noted on the 144-minute chart, which points to this only completing the wave 3 in the final 5-wave structure within this c-wave. That means my primary analysis expects another 4-5 before this completes.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Next Buying Opportunity Approaching In Mining Stocks Looks Better Than Gold And Silver

Some of you were quite upset with me after an interview I did with KITCO in December of 2025. In that interview, I noted that metals were entering the final segment of their parabolic blow-off rallies and 2026 will likely usher in a sizeable correction.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Trying To Make It More Reliable

As I outlined over the weekend, the potential 1-2 downside structure was not terribly reliable due to the wave 1 being a potential leading diagonal. And, as I have noted many times before, leading diagonals are not reliable since they resemble corrective structures and often invalidate as leading diagonals.Therefore, we wanted to wait for another 5-wave decline to signal a 1-2, i-ii structure is developing. With today’s decline, have that potential. Ideally, I would much prefer a lower low for a better wave i of wave 3, but a corrective bounce at this time could provide us with a nicer set up for this 1-2, i-ii downside set up.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Don’t Bank On It

In this new series of articles entitled “Don’t Bank On It,” we are going to highlight existential issues found on a specific bank’s balance sheet. But, we are challenging readers to figure out which bank we are highlighting in the specific article.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Trying To Keep It Simple

With the move down from this week’s high not counting well as a standard Fibonacci Pinball structure, it leaves us with the potential that the initial move lower was a leading diagonal for wave 1 of the (c) wave. And, assuming this is the correct count, that makes today’s bounce a wave 2.This is where I add my usual warning about leading diagonals not being strong trading cues, as they can just as easily be a corrective structure. It is for this reason that I seek confirmation with a clear 5-wave decline for wave i of 3 to make this structure a much higher probability in following through to the downside.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Point Of No Return

With the metals market seemingly topping out today, we may have now dropped to the point of no return. You see, due to today’s drop, this is either going to be the start of the 5th wave to lower lows, or, yes, if we break back out over today’s high, then we will be looking at the revenge of the purple count. It seems that simple to me at this time.I also want to remind you that a 5th wave decline in an ending diagonal takes shape as a 3-wave structure, breaking down as an a-b-c decline.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Summer Doldrums - Market Analysis for Jun 16th, 2026

Well, since not much has really happened there is really not much to add to the recent analysis. So, I am simply going to add a couple of points from the daily SPX chart I am including in today’s update.As you can see, price has come back to the uptrend line and we seem to be hitting our heads on it as we speak. Moreover, the MACD has not crossed up yet to even begin a suggestion that this is a sustainable rally. And, when it does, we usually like to see it having crossed over for 3 days to signal a new uptrend has potentially begun.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Bulls Are Trying To Open The Next Door

With the SPX moving through the resistance box today, I have been forced to add a bullish alternative to the counts I am tracking. But, I want to make it clear that this is in no way my preferred path at this time, and it will need to prove itself as per the outline below.For now, I am still viewing this rally as a (b) wave until proven otherwise. But, we also need to see a CLEAR 5-wave decline to make it a strong probability that a (c) wave decline is in progress.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Small Changes - Market Analysis for Jun 15th, 2026

With the rally we are seeing today, I wanted to keep you apprised of where I think we are so that you can be appropriately prepared when the next buying opportunity arises.There are only two small changes I would make to the analysis from the weekend. The first is in GDX. Due to the size of the move higher, I think it is clear that the recent low completed the 3rd wave of an ending diagonal in the c-wave for GDX. With it hitting a low just beyond the 1.382 extension of waves 1-2 to the downside, this is a very reasonable bottom to the 3rd wave in a diagonal in metals.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Direct May Not Be So Direct

The main point of this update is simply to remind you that pressure will remain down in the more direct path to our lower directs UNLESS we see a VERY CLEAR 5-wave rally take hold at higher than a micro level. But, even so, I am still expecting a sizeable bounce soon in a 4th wave of the c-wave lower.Yet, I want to note that silver still retains some potential for the purple count. Last night, we struck a 1.00 extension (a=c) low and have bounced. Since I am counting a direct move lower as an ending diagonal, we really should be targeting at least the 1.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Weighing Competing Issues - Market Analysis for Jun 10th, 2026

Yesterday, I tried taking you through my thought process when I analyze the current SPX structure. Today, I am taking it to the next step and adding in the new information we have seen since yesterday.We were trying to distinguish between the yellow larger (a)(b) structure and the more immediate downside 1-2 set up within the (c) wave. In the later afternoon yesterday, the market rallied up to the .618 retracement of what I am viewing as the wave 1 down, but the rally could be counted as a 5-wave structure.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Likely More To Go

Analyzing the market is a process. And, I want to take you through my process today as to how I determine primary versus alternative wave counts in our current situation.With the market striking the bottom of our target/resistance box, and then turning down, the primary question we have is whether we have begun the (c) wave down, or if the market is providing us with a deep (a) wave, and a (b) wave is yet to be seen? And, with the market bottoming thus far in between the .382 and .236 retracements of the prior rally, it does not offer much in the way of guidance from that perspective.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

The Bounce Is Here

With the futures dropping to within 25 points of the .236 retracement and the top of our target/support box on the 5-minute SPX chart, we seem to have completed our (a) wave decline. That likely means that we are now within the (b) wave bounce.Normally, we expect the a-wave within the (b) wave to bounce back to the .382-.500 retracement of the prior (a) wave decline, followed by a b-wave pullback, thereafter leading to a c-wave rally towards the .618 retracement of the (a) wave decline to complete the (b) wave bounce. And, thus far, the market seems to be complying.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Break Of Support - Enjoy Your Jello

Clearly, we have broken the IMMEDIATE set up for the purple count. And, that has opened the door to the more direct move lower. So, I want to be clear about what I know and what I don't know.What I am relatively confident of is that the market is likely going to be heading to the lower lows we have been discussing for quite some time. What I am not confident about is the path that is taking us there. Right now, this weakness suggests that we can be heading to the lower lows in a more direct fashion. Yet, I do not have a reliable wave structure that makes me confident in that perspective.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Failure Leads To Moar Jello

I wanted to send out a quick update this evening, as the rally today off the overnight low really counts best as a 3-wave rally. And, 3-wave rallies are usually only corrective in nature. This now causes a problem for the purple count as we needed a 5-wave rally off the recent low to provide us with the ideal (i)(ii) i-ii set up pointing us higher.Now, at the same time, I cannot say that I see a clear impulsive structure pointing us lower, as the decline from the recent high counts best as a corrective 3-wave structure as well.So, with 3-wave structures in both directions, it puts us back into jello.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Support Held - Market Analysis for Jun 4th, 2026

The title just about says it all and I am going to keep this update very simple. Today’s low held where a 4th wave of smaller degree would be expected to hold. Therefore, I am viewing it as wave (4) within wave (v), which you can see on the attached 5-minute SPX chart.The next upside target is the 7646SPX region, which is, astoundingly, the 4.00 extension off the end of March low. So, to remind you again, we need to beak 7500SPX, with a follow-through below 7389SPX, to make it likely that the bigger pullback (or something much more bearish) is in progress.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Purple Is Facing Its First Test

I decided to write the metals report now as we seem to be sitting on a support region. As we said over the weekend, we were looking for a 2nd wave pullback in the purple count. And, thus far, the market has provided us with that expected pullback. But, I am again going to remind you that we are still likely within a larger degree corrective wave. And, unless the purple provides us with a full (i)(ii) i-ii structure, followed by a break out over the high of waves (i)/i, we have to view this action with a bit of a jaundiced eye.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Momentum Seems To Be Waning

As the market continues to make new highs, the overall momentum seems to be waning, as evidenced by the drop in the angle of ascent of late. This seems to have caused price to be peeking out from the uptrend channel created during this rally from the wave (iv) low, as seen on the 5-minute SPX chart. Yet, we are a bit short of the 4.00 extension as soon on the 60-minute chart.Yet, the only thing that has really changed from yesterday is the fact that we are starting to seemingly break the uptrend channel I just noted. Otherwise, there really is not much more I am able to add to the analysis at this time.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

No Weakness Yet - Market Analysis for Jun 1st, 2026

With the market again going sideways for the last day and a half, it resolved that action to the upside. So, clearly, no support has yet been broken, and the market continues to squeeze higher.With the market now inching even closer to the 4.00 extension in SPX (7646SPX), we are within 30 points of that target as I write this update. Moreover, there is a larger degree trend line overhead as well in the same region, which can be seen in the attached 60-minute SPX chart.Overall, there is not a lot for me to add to the analysis, other than highlighting the continued negative divergences evident in various technical indicators.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Sideways Led To A Pop

With the market popping higher today this seems to be the final segment in the wave (v). Therefore, when we break back below the last micro-consolidation – which is basically the 7500SPX support level – then that is the initial signal that this structure has completed.Ultimately, we still need to break down below 7389SPX, with follow through below 7320SPX to confirm that we are either in the blue wave 2, or the red a-wave. But, please recognize that we are now striking the 3.764 extension off waves i-ii in this rally off the end of March low. To say this is extreme is likely understating it. So, of course, risk continues to rise.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Defining Moment For Evil

The evil purple count is now at support in gold, and this is the last opportunity I am giving the market to either prove that evil count, or to let us know that we are going to be heading to the lower targets in a more direct fashion.IF you look at the 60-minute gold chart, you will see the 4400 region as the support I have outlined by the red support line. Should the market see a sustained break of that support, then it becomes likely that we are heading down in wave 3 of the c-wave, pointing us down to the 3550-3850 region.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Sideways Today - Market Analysis for May 27th, 2026

For the most part, the SPX has been going sideways for the last two days. Moreover, depending on how you draw the channel, it may still just barely be holding on to this uptrend channel we have developed since the low struck on May 19th. So, this could easily be a consolidation before it makes one more push higher to complete wave (v). I must reiterate how hard it is being an analyst and knowing how incredibly stretched this market is, yet still suggesting this could push even higher. In fact, I posted a chart of the NQ this morning and noted how we have basically struck the 4.382 extension of waves 1-2 off the low struck in late March.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Escalator Up? - Market Analysis for May 21st, 2026

I am going to make this update short. The last metals update told you to expect a bounce, and that is what we got. While I am really questioning what that bounce was in GDX, silver can be 5 waves up, but gold has a “technical” 5 waves up. The problem with gold’s 5 waves up is that it had a 3rd wave to the 1.618 extension and the 5th wave just shy of the 2.00 extension off the i-ii set up off the low. That is NOT normal to see in a metals 5-wave structure, and they often well exceed those standard targets we see for equities. Yet, I cannot deny that 5 waves up.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Nothing Yet To Really Get Excited About

We have now spent five days below the all-time high, and we have yet to even break the initial support at the 7320SPX region. So, at this point in time, I cannot even say with confidence that the blue wave 1 or green wave 5 is done with its upside. Although, I do suspect it is done.With that being said, I want to remind you that if we have indeed struck a major high, it means we have likely concluded a major ending diagonal structure. And, one of the hallmarks of the conclusion of a diagonal is a very strong reversal. Needless to say, that is not what we are seeing.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

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Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

An Exercise In Patience

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