Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Competing Patterns - Market Analysis for Mar 30th, 2026

I always find it a challenge when we have one pattern playing out in the SPX and another in the futures.  As I write this, the futures have struck the support I noted over the weekend at 6360ES, and have seen a large rebound off that low.  However, the SPX pattern seemed incomplete, which is maybe why we are seeing the lower lows in SPX, whereas this may only be a corrective b-wave pullback in ES.  And, that is how I have it analyzed on the various charts.Of course, this will apply ONLY if the futures can hold their overnight low.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

(a) Wave Seemingly Not Done

With the market unable to develop any real rally attempt for a c-wave, it has forced us into the perspective that the (a) wave has not yet completed.  And, that suggests that we have a date with the 6360SPX support zone next.   I now have that as my primary count.While the market can certainly drop to that region in a more direct fashion, it would not surprise me to see yet another twist in this action.  You see, the initial rally off the recent lows could have been an a-wave in wave 4, with this pullback being a b-wave, followed by a c-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Question Your Beliefs As To What Drives Markets

Most everyone seems to believe that the spike we got in the markets at the beginning of the week was because we were going to negotiate a deal with Iran to bring the war to an end. Today, Iran rejected the proposal we put on the table. So, why is the market still green . .
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Market’s Footing Is Getting Shaky

My thesis coming into this week was that we were completing an ending diagonal for the c-wave of the (a) wave in this current corrective pullback in SPX.  Therefore, I was expecting a strong reversal, which should take us back to the region from which the diagonal began in a very swift move.While the week started out by following that perspective, the fact that we have stalled now for almost two full trading days is starting to get a bit concerning about follow through in this potential (b) wave bounce back towards the 6850-6900SPX region.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Metals Are Moving In The Shadows

It has been interesting watching the metals move of late, as almost all the action has taken place during after-hours.  As an example, when gold struck its recent local bottom to what I am counting as wave 3, it happened in the overnight session.   Then, yesterday, it took the market the entire day to set up a 1-2, i-ii pattern, and as soon as the market closed, silver and gold broke out in their 3rd waves.I even noted it in a post I made at 1PM:“The way this continually hesitates at the highs seems to suggest it may attempt a break out overnight.   We will see.  As long as we hold over the overnight low, this is pointing higher.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

War . . What Is Gold Good For?

****This is an article that will be published on KITCO and Yahoo Finance in the coming days*****For those that read the articles I published and the interviews I gave at the end of 2025, you would know that I was warning that this bullish metals cycle could be completing as we move into 2026.  In fact, in an article I wrote for KITCO in late 2025 – which was picked up by a number of other sites – each and every commenter told me how I was absolutely wrong, and that this time is different. While both gold and silver did exceed my ideal targets, it is rather clear now that a cycle has come to an end as per our expectations.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Treading Water - Market Analysis for Mar 24th, 2026

There really is not much to add to the analysis at this time.  We have been simply treading water within the b-wave support box on the ES chart.   And, as long as this continues, then I have to look higher towards the c-wave target box overhead.Of course, if we break this support box, then it opens the door to the deeper (a) wave presented on the 60-minute SPX chart, labeled as the alt (a).  And, until the market actually makes a decision, there is not much more for me to say.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

(b) Wave In Progress

Well, it seems we have seen that strong reversal we were expecting and it also was accompanied by news.   So, this is rather typical and well in line with our expectations.Thus far, the rally seems to be corrective.  Moreover, the a-wave within this (b) wave rally spiked just beyond the standard target for an a-wave in a corrective rally, which is the .382 retracement of the (a) wave decline.  And, as I noted early in the day that the most likely expectation would be for the market to spend the rest of the day in a corrective b-wave pullback, things seem to be going as planned thus far.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Are Metals About To Whipsaw or Waterfall?

As I outlined over the weekend, gold was the clearest of the charts of late.  And, I also noted that should we see a sustained break of the 5000 region, then we are likely next heading to the 4800 region which will be a VERY important point for the market.To explain again, thus far, we have dropped down to the 1.00 extension (4800 region) off the 1-2 downside set up we have been tracking.  Normally, when the market bottoms at the 1.00 extension and begins an impulsive rally back up through the .618 extension (4983.50), it tells us that the market is not going to follow through on the downside set up, and that the decline was really a corrective a-b-c pullback.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Does Not Seem Done

Not much has changed in the wave count from yesterday.  The rally into yesterday’s high seems to have been the (a) wave of the b-wave in the 5th wave of this ending diagonal, with the overnight action providing us a (b) wave pullback, and today’s rally being the (c) wave of the b-wave.Thus far we have come up to the .618 retrace of the a-wave decline, as you can see from the attached 15-minute ES chart.  While this may be all we see, the (c) wave rally really looks incomplete, and can certainly make one more rally attempt towards the .763 retracement region.  In fact, that .764 retracement region has confluence with an (a)=(c) ratio within this b-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Unfinished Business - Market Analysis for Mar 16th, 2026

With the futures not making any lower lows yet, and understanding that a truncated ending diagonal is a rare occurrence, the greater probability seems to suggest that there is another lower low sitting out there for the ES, and hence, the SPX potentially as well.  So, due to the size of today’s bounce, I am assuming that we are now within the b-wave bounce within the 5th wave of the ending diagonal that is taking shape for the c-wave of the larger degree (a) wave off the recent market highs (you can see the count clearer on the smaller degree charts).
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Same Bigger Picture View – But Mixed Micro Messages

While the bigger structure right now is pointing lower, the micro structure is still not wholly clear, and providing some very near term mixed messages.  Allow me to explain.Starting with GDX, we seem to be working on a 1-2 decline in the c-wave.  But, there is still a bit of a question in my mind as to whether the wave 2 is done, as we did not even reach the .382 retracement of the initial decline from the b-wave high.  That is an unusually shallow 2nd wave retrace.  So much so that a full 5-wave projection from the high this week points us to the 62 region in GDX, which is the 2.00 extension based upon the current 1-2 structure in place.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Rally Target Reached - Market Analysis for Mar 10th, 2026

With the rally off the Sunday night low now reaching the target box I provided yesterday afternoon, we have just about reached an a=c point off the low.  I have it estimated on my SPX chart due to not having the low on this chart that was struck in the futures.  So, the numbers may not be exact.Based upon our Fibonacci Pinball structure, once the market reaches the 1.00 extension, the .618 extension becomes our support.  That is generally over the 6780SPX region.  So, a break down below that level will be our initial indication that wave 5 may be in progress.I want to also repost something I posted this afternoon as an alert:“We are now approaching the 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Very Controlled Market Decline

With the market finally breaking support, it did not fall away as I would have normally expected.   It tells me that the buy-the-dip crowd is still very much alive and well.  But, that does not change my view of the larger structure.The break of the support makes it much more likely that we are within the larger degree pullback, for which I have been expecting for some time.  But, with the continued up/down action, it seems to suggest the c-wave of this (a) wave pullback is taking shape as an ending diagonal.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Downside Set Up - Market Analysis for Mar 4th, 2026

While I am showing a potential 1-2, i-ii in both gold and silver, I have to note there are a number of issues with it.  First, I cannot say that the wave i structure is the cleanest of 5-wave structures.  Second, normally, wave i of 3 will target AT LEAST the .382 extension of waves 1-2, whereas they normally target the .618 extension of waves 1-2.  And, what I have labeled as wave i of 3 has not even come close to the .382 extension.  So, needless to say, I really need a bit more evidence to make this immediate downside set up a much higher probability. The other issue I have is that I really have no clear similar downside set up in GDX.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Tested, Yet Again - Market Analysis for Mar 3rd, 2026

I am not sure how many times it will take before a test of the 6720SPX support finally breaks it, but we had yet another today.  And, thus far, the market has held yet again.  Moreover, the rally off that low is initially taking shape as a 5-wave structure, which again forces me to place the yellow (b) wave at today’s low, with a reasonable expectation of a (c) wave rally again.  So, while we wait for the market to provide a bit more clarity, I think this is a good time to review our Fibonacci Pinball structure to show how it differentiates between various options.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Quick Mid-Day Update

The SPX is now pressing hard on the 6720SPX support.  Should this break in a sustained fashion, the trap door opens and this can easily project down to the bottom of the (a) wave support box in the 6200-6400SPX region.  As it continues to develop, we will track the micro structure on the ES chart, with a much larger i-ii downside potential now.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Be On The Lookout

As I write this update, gold seems to be a relatively clear 3-wave pullback, and silver is questionable as to whether it is 3 or 5.  You see, what would count as a 5th wave in silver is really so large it can also be considered a c-wave, which would then count it as a corrective a-b-c pullback.  So, where does that leave us?Well, without a CLEAR 5-wave decline, it tells us that the probability that the larger c-wave decline is not highly likely.  And, we have to then seek other potential options.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

A Clouded Market - Market Analysis for Mar 2nd, 2026

Part of my job is not just to simply provide cut and dry Elliott Wave analysis.  You see, in doing my job, there are times I must read messages being sent to us by the market action, which can assist in my primary job of providing analysis.  Let me explain.The market had a potential 1-2, i-ii downside structure in place (albeit with a shallow wave ii), which means we had a set up for a 3rd wave down coming into today.  And, we even got a negative catalyst to ignite that 3rd wave down.  Yet, the market did not take advantage of that set up.  Moreover, the futures declined down to a 1.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Just A Reminder - Market Analysis for Feb 28th, 2026

Many of you may have noticed that I did not mention a single word of the Middle East in my weekend analysis.   I am probably alone throughout the entire internet in that regard.  And, the reason is that the market is likely going to do as it is set up to do.  To drive this point home, I challenge each and every one of you to show me an instance when a war breaking out was a “cause” for a market decline, and I can probably show you just as many examples as it was a “cause” for a rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Setting Up The Next Leg Down

As I outlined over the weekend, the silver chart was providing us with the clearest path as to how a b-wave can potentially complete.  And, I would say that this is still true.   So, let’s look at the smaller degree chart in silver as our guide.From the weekend update, we were looking for the market to minimally continue this rally towards the 93 region, which is the .500 retracement of the initial decline off the all-time high in silver.  Today, the market approached the 92 level and has seemingly backed off.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Decision Time - Market Analysis for Feb 25th, 2026

For this afternoon's update, I am simply going to repost two alerts I presented in the room today, as it really lays out how I see the smaller degree structure right now:10:25AM Alert:These two paths are now coming to a head.  We have moved through the pivot on the SPX structure, which normally suggests we are moving higher in a wave iii of 3.  But, there are a number of issues here.  First, we are approaching the 1.00 extension, which could be all of the a-b-c of a corrective rally as shown on the 15-minute ES chart, which is also approaching the .764 retrace of the initial 5-wave decline.  That leans to a bit more of a bearish interpretation.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Context Is Important - Market Analysis for Feb 21st, 2026

This market has been frustrating.   What’s more so, it has been frustrating since 2022.  But, the question is why has it been frustrating?  Well, normally, the markets move in standard 5-wave structures which makes prognostication and trading so much easier.  But, since 2022, this market has been taking shape in waves of 3, which are much more like corrective structures, and are much more variable and difficult to navigate.   This is the nature of the beast with which we have been dealing over the last 4 years.  Yet, understanding your environment provides a huge advantage.  You see, when you know you are in an environment of 3-wave structures, it tells you that you cannot be as aggressive as you would otherwise.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Cloudy, With A Chance Of Diagonals

Well, up until now, I have given the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.  However, that benefit of the doubt is starting to erode.With the lack of follow-through to the upside, we have been reducing the probability that the bulls can still take us higher one more time before the bigger correction begins.  As of the time of my writing this update, the only path I can maintain for the bullish follow through is via a leading diagonal.  And, as you may already know, I do not view them as strong trading cues.Yet, the bears are not doing much better, as any potential for a wave i down is also only left to a leading diagonal structure.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

I Can Only Give To You What I Can See

I am presenting you with three charts, all telling me somewhat different stories.  So, I am just going to get into the charts.Starting with gold, while I can fashion an argument to claim that this b-wave has completed, I cannot say that I would wholeheartedly believe it.  It would have made much more sense if the market had begun this decline from the February 11th high in impulsive fashion.  Then I would be able to more strongly consider that this b-wave has concluded and the c-wave has begun.  But, that is not what we have seen.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago
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