Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

The Bounce Is Here

With the futures dropping to within 25 points of the .236 retracement and the top of our target/support box on the 5-minute SPX chart, we seem to have completed our (a) wave decline. That likely means that we are now within the (b) wave bounce.Normally, we expect the a-wave within the (b) wave to bounce back to the .382-.500 retracement of the prior (a) wave decline, followed by a b-wave pullback, thereafter leading to a c-wave rally towards the .618 retracement of the (a) wave decline to complete the (b) wave bounce. And, thus far, the market seems to be complying.

by Avi Gilburt - 18 hours ago

Break Of Support - Enjoy Your Jello

Clearly, we have broken the IMMEDIATE set up for the purple count. And, that has opened the door to the more direct move lower. So, I want to be clear about what I know and what I don't know.What I am relatively confident of is that the market is likely going to be heading to the lower lows we have been discussing for quite some time. What I am not confident about is the path that is taking us there. Right now, this weakness suggests that we can be heading to the lower lows in a more direct fashion. Yet, I do not have a reliable wave structure that makes me confident in that perspective.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Failure Leads To Moar Jello

I wanted to send out a quick update this evening, as the rally today off the overnight low really counts best as a 3-wave rally. And, 3-wave rallies are usually only corrective in nature. This now causes a problem for the purple count as we needed a 5-wave rally off the recent low to provide us with the ideal (i)(ii) i-ii set up pointing us higher.Now, at the same time, I cannot say that I see a clear impulsive structure pointing us lower, as the decline from the recent high counts best as a corrective 3-wave structure as well.So, with 3-wave structures in both directions, it puts us back into jello.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Support Held - Market Analysis for Jun 4th, 2026

The title just about says it all and I am going to keep this update very simple. Today’s low held where a 4th wave of smaller degree would be expected to hold. Therefore, I am viewing it as wave (4) within wave (v), which you can see on the attached 5-minute SPX chart.The next upside target is the 7646SPX region, which is, astoundingly, the 4.00 extension off the end of March low. So, to remind you again, we need to beak 7500SPX, with a follow-through below 7389SPX, to make it likely that the bigger pullback (or something much more bearish) is in progress.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Purple Is Facing Its First Test

I decided to write the metals report now as we seem to be sitting on a support region. As we said over the weekend, we were looking for a 2nd wave pullback in the purple count. And, thus far, the market has provided us with that expected pullback. But, I am again going to remind you that we are still likely within a larger degree corrective wave. And, unless the purple provides us with a full (i)(ii) i-ii structure, followed by a break out over the high of waves (i)/i, we have to view this action with a bit of a jaundiced eye.

by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Momentum Seems To Be Waning

As the market continues to make new highs, the overall momentum seems to be waning, as evidenced by the drop in the angle of ascent of late. This seems to have caused price to be peeking out from the uptrend channel created during this rally from the wave (iv) low, as seen on the 5-minute SPX chart. Yet, we are a bit short of the 4.00 extension as soon on the 60-minute chart.Yet, the only thing that has really changed from yesterday is the fact that we are starting to seemingly break the uptrend channel I just noted. Otherwise, there really is not much more I am able to add to the analysis at this time.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

No Weakness Yet - Market Analysis for Jun 1st, 2026

With the market again going sideways for the last day and a half, it resolved that action to the upside. So, clearly, no support has yet been broken, and the market continues to squeeze higher.With the market now inching even closer to the 4.00 extension in SPX (7646SPX), we are within 30 points of that target as I write this update. Moreover, there is a larger degree trend line overhead as well in the same region, which can be seen in the attached 60-minute SPX chart.Overall, there is not a lot for me to add to the analysis, other than highlighting the continued negative divergences evident in various technical indicators.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sideways Led To A Pop

With the market popping higher today this seems to be the final segment in the wave (v). Therefore, when we break back below the last micro-consolidation – which is basically the 7500SPX support level – then that is the initial signal that this structure has completed.Ultimately, we still need to break down below 7389SPX, with follow through below 7320SPX to confirm that we are either in the blue wave 2, or the red a-wave. But, please recognize that we are now striking the 3.764 extension off waves i-ii in this rally off the end of March low. To say this is extreme is likely understating it. So, of course, risk continues to rise.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Defining Moment For Evil

The evil purple count is now at support in gold, and this is the last opportunity I am giving the market to either prove that evil count, or to let us know that we are going to be heading to the lower targets in a more direct fashion.IF you look at the 60-minute gold chart, you will see the 4400 region as the support I have outlined by the red support line. Should the market see a sustained break of that support, then it becomes likely that we are heading down in wave 3 of the c-wave, pointing us down to the 3550-3850 region.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sideways Today - Market Analysis for May 27th, 2026

For the most part, the SPX has been going sideways for the last two days. Moreover, depending on how you draw the channel, it may still just barely be holding on to this uptrend channel we have developed since the low struck on May 19th. So, this could easily be a consolidation before it makes one more push higher to complete wave (v). I must reiterate how hard it is being an analyst and knowing how incredibly stretched this market is, yet still suggesting this could push even higher. In fact, I posted a chart of the NQ this morning and noted how we have basically struck the 4.382 extension of waves 1-2 off the low struck in late March.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Escalator Up? - Market Analysis for May 21st, 2026

I am going to make this update short. The last metals update told you to expect a bounce, and that is what we got. While I am really questioning what that bounce was in GDX, silver can be 5 waves up, but gold has a “technical” 5 waves up. The problem with gold’s 5 waves up is that it had a 3rd wave to the 1.618 extension and the 5th wave just shy of the 2.00 extension off the i-ii set up off the low. That is NOT normal to see in a metals 5-wave structure, and they often well exceed those standard targets we see for equities. Yet, I cannot deny that 5 waves up.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Nothing Yet To Really Get Excited About

We have now spent five days below the all-time high, and we have yet to even break the initial support at the 7320SPX region. So, at this point in time, I cannot even say with confidence that the blue wave 1 or green wave 5 is done with its upside. Although, I do suspect it is done.With that being said, I want to remind you that if we have indeed struck a major high, it means we have likely concluded a major ending diagonal structure. And, one of the hallmarks of the conclusion of a diagonal is a very strong reversal. Needless to say, that is not what we are seeing.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

It’s Not Easy Being Purple

No matter how many times I warn people about how evil a larger degree b-wave can get, I still see people getting caught over-trading during these environments. And, it is usually because they have not been through many b-waves before and they believe that the death by a thousand cuts (that is typical of trading b-waves) simply will not apply to them. And, while Kermit the frog is famous for proclaiming “it’s not easy being green,” I am sure Barney would proclaim similarly, “it aint easy being purple either.” And, that certainly applies in our current situation, as the evil potential within this market still will not die.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Weekend Metals Report: Taking Everyone For A Ride

Last week, the market had a break-out set up to follow through within the purple count and a much more evil b-wave structure. However, the only chart that took the opportunity was silver, as it rallied and approached the target we had for that purple b-wave. Yet, it did come up a bit short.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Approaching 3.618 - Market Analysis for May 14th, 2026

As I noted in my earlier update, the SPX is now approaching the 3.618 extension of waves i-ii off the end of March low. And, yes, this is extreme. But, there is still no clear indication that a top has been struck. Minimally, we would need to see a strong break down below 7320SPX to suggest that the blue wave 2 or the red a-wave is in progress.In the meantime, I have noted over the last week that the IWM may still be attempting to complete an ending diagonal, as outlined on the 60-minute IWM chart. However, admittedly, this diagonal is a bit wonky with the size of wave iv being relatively large.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

What Is Reasonably Probable?

In law, much of what is analyzed is based upon what is viewed as reasonably probable. And, as smart investors and traders, we also base our analysis, investing and trading upon what is reasonably probable. Moreover, we do the same thing when engaging in Elliott Wave analysis as well. And, this is to what Paul Tudor Jones was referring when he noted:"I attribute a lot of my success to Elliot Wave Theory. It allows one to create incredibly favorable risk reward opportunities"A reasonably probable expectation for a standard impulsive structure is that a 1-2 initial set up projects to the standard target of the 2.00 extension of that set up.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2026

As it stands right now, we have a set up to take the metals much higher. But, they do not seem to be set up in the same manner.I posted the charts below in silver trying to outline the micro count in this rally, although I cannot say that I have a high degree of confidence in the smaller degree count, it is the best option from those I am seeing. And, as long as we remain over the wave ii low on the 5-minute chart, then I am looking higher to complete wave 3 of this purple c-wave.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

To Hell With Risk

If you have learned the story of the legendary trader Jessee Livermore, then you would know he made an absolute fortune shorting the market during the 1929 market crash. But, what most people do not know was that his success went to his head and he made bigger and bigger trades without recognizing the risks, and ultimately died broke and committing suicide by a self-inflicted gun-shot. The lesson one should walk away with is risk is a double edged sword and must be wielded wisely.Yet, today, it seems many are completely oblivious to the risk inherent in a parabolic rally such as we are currently seeing.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Close, But No Cigar

With the crazy machinations we have been seeing of late in metals, I thought it appropriate to write an update a bit earlier than normal.With the market making a higher high yesterday, I could have made the argument that gold was providing us with a 1-2, i-ii upside set up. However, the spike low today invalidated that potential. So, it still leaves us with a potential for a 1-2, as shown in purple on the 13-minute GC chart.But, at the same time, there is also a reasonable count for 5 waves down in gold and silver. I have outlined those counts on the attached 13-minute GC and 5-minute silver charts.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Potential 5 Down - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2026

With GDX and gold both completing 5 waves up off the recent lows, we have two paths that the market can choose. And, as I noted earlier this morning in an alert, we can clearly reduce the paths in GDX from three down to the final two.So, to remind you, the question on the table is whether we drop to lower lows in a more direct fashion, or whether we have one more rally in the purple count before we begin that drop. And, our answer is going to be determined regarding whether the market pulls back in a 5-wave structure or a corrective one.Today, the market completed a 5-wave rally in both GDX and gold.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Patiently Waiting For The Metals To Tip Their Hand

I want to again reiterate that the greatest probability path in the larger degree (at least in my humble opinion) is that the metals charts I am tracking should see a lower low before we can begin considering the correction is completed. However, the charts are still not strongly indicative as to whether we will see a bigger rally before we begin that drop, or if we are going to begin that decline phase to lower lows more imminently.Let’s start with the GDX. As you can see, we have bounced to the resistance region for wave ii of 3 to the downside. And, as long as today’s high holds, then that is a very reasonable wave count.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Something Is Still Missing

It does seem as though wave (iv) has completed, and we had the expected overlap into wave (i) that is normally seen during diagonals. Since that time, I am viewing the rally today as the a-wave of wave (v).Therefore, we are still missing the b-wave pullback, followed by the c-wave of wave (v). Again, remember that all the substructures within diagonals break down as 3-waves each, counted as a-b-c.So, my expectation is that we will soon begin a b-wave pullback, followed by a c-wave rally.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Something Is Missing - Market Analysis for May 4th, 2026

In the weekend update, I outlined my expectation for us to be working on waves (iv)(v) early this week. As of my writing this update, both the SPX and ES have seen overlap into wave (i), which is most common in diagonal structures. Therefore, both can be considered complete in their wave (iv) pullback.The issue with diagonals is that all substructures are 3-waves. So, any rally off a wave (iv) potential low would usually look indistinguishable from a corrective rally, as both would be 3-wave structures. So, it is certainly well within reason to assume wave (iv) is done now that we have seen the usual overlap.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Weekly Wave: Tornado Warning For Markets

We have been in a Grand Supercycle bull market for over 200 years. And, within that, we have been within a Supercycle 3rd wave since 1932. You can see this in this 100+ year chart of the SPX. This long-term 3rd wave is what has fostered the bullish mantras of “buy the dip,” “do not time the market,” “always be invested,” and “the market always comes back.” And, this long-term bull market has done its job of convincing the masses that this cycle will not end and will continue unabated. But, markets are not linear and like everything within the natural course of life, these periods of progression are followed by periods of regression.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

5th Wave Seems To Be In Progress

As I was surmising of late, the rally off wave iv really seemed too small to mark a full 5th wave in this structure off the recent low. And, as I am writing this update now, it seems that we are now in wave (iii) of wave v, but it is taking shape as an ending diagonal due to the obvious overlap we are seeing in the futures structure.Normally, the 3rd wave in a diagonal targets the 1.236 extension of waves (i)(ii), which, in this case, is the 7309ES region, as you can see on the attached 15-minute ES chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

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Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

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