Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Sideways Led To A Pop

With the market popping higher today this seems to be the final segment in the wave (v).   Therefore, when we break back below the last micro-consolidation – which is basically the 7500SPX support level – then that is the initial signal that this structure has completed.Ultimately, we still need to break down below 7389SPX, with follow through below 7320SPX to confirm that we are either in the blue wave 2, or the red a-wave.  But, please recognize that we are now striking the 3.764 extension off waves i-ii in this rally off the end of March low.  To say this is extreme is likely understating it.  So, of course, risk continues to rise.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Defining Moment For Evil

The evil purple count is now at support in gold, and this is the last opportunity I am giving the market to either prove that evil count, or to let us know that we are going to be heading to the lower targets in a more direct fashion.IF you look at the 60-minute gold chart, you will see the 4400 region as the support I have outlined by the red support line.  Should the market see a sustained break of that support, then it becomes likely that we are heading down in wave 3 of the c-wave, pointing us down to the 3550-3850 region.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Sideways Today - Market Analysis for May 27th, 2026

For the most part, the SPX has been going sideways for the last two days.  Moreover, depending on how you draw the channel, it may still just barely be holding on to this uptrend channel we have developed since the low struck on May 19th.  So, this could easily be a consolidation before it makes one more push higher to complete wave (v).  I must reiterate how hard it is being an analyst and knowing how incredibly stretched this market is, yet still suggesting this could push even higher.  In fact, I posted a chart of the NQ this morning and noted how we have basically struck the 4.382 extension of waves 1-2 off the low struck in late March.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Escalator Up? - Market Analysis for May 21st, 2026

I am going to make this update short.  The last metals update told you to expect a bounce, and that is what we got.  While I am really questioning what that bounce was in GDX, silver can be 5 waves up, but gold has a “technical” 5 waves up.  The problem with gold’s 5 waves up is that it had a 3rd wave to the 1.618 extension and the 5th wave just shy of the 2.00 extension off the i-ii set up off the low.  That is NOT normal to see in a metals 5-wave structure, and they often well exceed those standard targets we see for equities.  Yet, I cannot deny that 5 waves up.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Nothing Yet To Really Get Excited About

We have now spent five days below the all-time high, and we have yet to even break the initial support at the 7320SPX region.  So, at this point in time, I cannot even say with confidence that the blue wave 1 or green wave 5 is done with its upside.  Although, I do suspect it is done.With that being said, I want to remind you that if we have indeed struck a major high, it means we have likely concluded a major ending diagonal structure.  And, one of the hallmarks of the conclusion of a diagonal is a very strong reversal.  Needless to say, that is not what we are seeing.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

It’s Not Easy Being Purple

No matter how many times I warn people about how evil a larger degree b-wave can get, I still see people getting caught over-trading during these environments.  And, it is usually because they have not been through many b-waves before and they believe that the death by a thousand cuts (that is typical of trading b-waves) simply will not apply to them.  And, while Kermit the frog is famous for proclaiming “it’s not easy being green,” I am sure Barney would proclaim similarly, “it aint easy being purple either.”  And, that certainly applies in our current situation, as the evil potential within this market still will not die.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Weekend Metals Report: Taking Everyone For A Ride

Last week, the market had a break-out set up to follow through within the purple count and a much more evil b-wave structure. However, the only chart that took the opportunity was silver, as it rallied and approached the target we had for that purple b-wave. Yet, it did come up a bit short.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Approaching 3.618 - Market Analysis for May 14th, 2026

As I noted in my earlier update, the SPX is now approaching the 3.618 extension of waves i-ii off the end of March low.  And, yes, this is extreme.  But, there is still no clear indication that a top has been struck.  Minimally, we would need to see a strong break down below 7320SPX to suggest that the blue wave 2 or the red a-wave is in progress.In the meantime, I have noted over the last week that the IWM may still be attempting to complete an ending diagonal, as outlined on the 60-minute IWM chart.  However, admittedly, this diagonal is a bit wonky with the size of wave iv being relatively large.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

What Is Reasonably Probable?

In law, much of what is analyzed is based upon what is viewed as reasonably probable.  And, as smart investors and traders, we also base our analysis, investing and trading upon what is reasonably probable.  Moreover, we do the same thing when engaging in Elliott Wave analysis as well.  And, this is to what Paul Tudor Jones was referring when he noted:"I attribute a lot of my success to Elliot Wave Theory.  It allows one to create incredibly favorable risk reward opportunities"A reasonably probable expectation for a standard impulsive structure is that a 1-2 initial set up projects to the standard target of the 2.00 extension of that set up.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2026

As it stands right now, we have a set up to take the metals much higher.  But, they do not seem to be set up in the same manner.I posted the charts below in silver trying to outline the micro count in this rally, although I cannot say that I have a high degree of confidence in the smaller degree count, it is the best option from those I am seeing.  And, as long as we remain over the wave ii low on the 5-minute chart, then I am looking higher to complete wave 3 of this purple c-wave.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

To Hell With Risk

If you have learned the story of the legendary trader Jessee Livermore, then you would know he made an absolute fortune shorting the market during the 1929 market crash.  But, what most people do not know was that his success went to his head and he made bigger and bigger trades without recognizing the risks, and ultimately died broke and committing suicide by a self-inflicted gun-shot.  The lesson one should walk away with is risk is a double edged sword and must be wielded wisely.Yet, today, it seems many are completely oblivious to the risk inherent in a parabolic rally such as we are currently seeing.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Close, But No Cigar

With the crazy machinations we have been seeing of late in metals, I thought it appropriate to write an update a bit earlier than normal.With the market making a higher high yesterday, I could have made the argument that gold was providing us with a 1-2, i-ii upside set up.  However, the spike low today invalidated that potential.  So, it still leaves us with a potential for a 1-2, as shown in purple on the 13-minute GC chart.But, at the same time, there is also a reasonable count for 5 waves down in gold and silver.  I have outlined those counts on the attached 13-minute GC and 5-minute silver charts.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Potential 5 Down - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2026

With GDX and gold both completing 5 waves up off the recent lows, we have two paths that the market can choose.  And, as I noted earlier this morning in an alert, we can clearly reduce the paths in GDX from three down to the final two.So, to remind you, the question on the table is whether we drop to lower lows in a more direct fashion, or whether we have one more rally in the purple count before we begin that drop.  And, our answer is going to be determined regarding whether the market pulls back in a 5-wave structure or a corrective one.Today, the market completed a 5-wave rally in both GDX and gold.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Patiently Waiting For The Metals To Tip Their Hand

I want to again reiterate that the greatest probability path in the larger degree (at least in my humble opinion) is that the metals charts I am tracking should see a lower low before we can begin considering the correction is completed.  However, the charts are still not strongly indicative as to whether we will see a bigger rally before we begin that drop, or if we are going to begin that decline phase to lower lows more imminently.Let’s start with the GDX.   As you can see, we have bounced to the resistance region for wave ii of 3 to the downside.  And, as long as today’s high holds, then that is a very reasonable wave count.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Something Is Still Missing

It does seem as though wave (iv) has completed, and we had the expected overlap into wave (i) that is normally seen during diagonals.  Since that time, I am viewing the rally today as the a-wave of wave (v).Therefore, we are still missing the b-wave pullback, followed by the c-wave of wave (v).  Again, remember that all the substructures within diagonals break down as 3-waves each, counted as a-b-c.So, my expectation is that we will soon begin a b-wave pullback, followed by a c-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Something Is Missing - Market Analysis for May 4th, 2026

In the weekend update, I outlined my expectation for us to be working on waves (iv)(v) early this week.   As of my writing this update, both the SPX and ES have seen overlap into wave (i), which is most common in diagonal structures.  Therefore, both can be considered complete in their wave (iv) pullback.The issue with diagonals is that all substructures are 3-waves.  So, any rally off a wave (iv) potential low would usually look indistinguishable from a corrective rally, as both would be 3-wave structures.  So, it is certainly well within reason to assume wave (iv) is done now that we have seen the usual overlap.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Weekly Wave: Tornado Warning For Markets

We have been in a Grand Supercycle bull market for over 200 years. And, within that, we have been within a Supercycle 3rd wave since 1932. You can see this in this 100+ year chart of the SPX. This long-term 3rd wave is what has fostered the bullish mantras of “buy the dip,” “do not time the market,” “always be invested,” and “the market always comes back.” And, this long-term bull market has done its job of convincing the masses that this cycle will not end and will continue unabated. But, markets are not linear and like everything within the natural course of life, these periods of progression are followed by periods of regression.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

5th Wave Seems To Be In Progress

As I was surmising of late, the rally off wave iv really seemed too small to mark a full 5th wave in this structure off the recent low.  And, as I am writing this update now, it seems that we are now in wave (iii) of wave v, but it is taking shape as an ending diagonal due to the obvious overlap we are seeing in the futures structure.Normally, the 3rd wave in a diagonal targets the 1.236 extension of waves (i)(ii), which, in this case, is the 7309ES region, as you can see on the attached 15-minute ES chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Another Spin On Evil

While GDX has been the cleanest of the paths over the last week or so, today’s action has placed more uncertainty around it.  While the bigger picture still strongly suggests lower levels will be seen before this correction is done, the fact that we have dropped this deep without an appropriate 2nd wave bounce if this is a c-wave decline adds a certain amount of complication to the chart which forces me to consider a different twist on the “evil” purple count.As you know, I have been expecting more of a bounce for a wave 2.  But, if the 3rd wave down in GDX has indeed begun, it would provide for a 2nd wave bounce that reached only a .
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Slowly Grinding Higher - Market Analysis for Apr 27th, 2026

The upside action has been waning of late as we are grinding higher to complete this 5th wave.   So, there really is not a lot to add to the analysis.   What is also interesting is that the SPX can be considered as completing this 5th wave imminently (or just a first wave in a more extended 5th wave), while the ES looks like it still has a bit further to go in completing an ending diagonal for this 5th wave.So, it leads us to one conclusion: We will need a break down below the wave iv low (7046.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Wild Action, But Bears Have Not Moved That Needle . . YET

Today, the market spiked and reversed the low struck earlier this week.  And, while it invalidated the “immediate” bullish potential in a 1-2 to the upside, I cannot say that it has moved the needle to providing a strong bearish option pointing us down towards the 6175-6300SPX region.  We are still way over standard support for a 4th wave – which is the top of the support box below on the 5-minute SPX chart (.382 retracement of wave iii) – and the decline has not really taken a clearly impulsive structure to the downside.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Probabilities Are Shifting - Market Analysis for Apr 22nd, 2026

I am putting this report out a bit earlier than normal as things have begun to swing a bit more towards the blue count.If I may remind you, that would mean that if we are to see a 5th wave rally in the coming days, then it would provide a 5-wave structure off the recent lows, which then opens the door to the blue c-wave rally seen on the daily chart pointing us to 8000 and potentially a bit higher.But, before I go into the bigger picture, I want to follow up on the analysis from yesterday.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Evil Is As Evil Does

First, I want to start this update by reiterating that I don’t think this correction is over.  Rather, I still think we see lower levels one way or another.  So, even though many are now looking at this as a new bullish leg in the metals, and have begun celebrating, with expectations of direct higher highs across the market, I am clearly not in that camp just yet.  The overlapping structures we are seeing across the complex strongly suggest that there is going to be further downside to be seen once this corrective bounce completes.Second, the “evil” purple count we have been tracking seems to have gotten even more convoluted.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Stuck Between A Rock And Two Fibs

With the market pushing higher overnight, I outlined the potential that we could be seeing a very shallow 4th wave structure developing as a flat for the blue count.  And, as I write this update, this is still a strong potential right now.With the market dropping from the 2nd strike of the recent high, this can easily count as an a-b-c structure, as outlined in blue on the attached 15-minute SPX chart, which is also presented on the 5-minute SPX chart.If this was really going to be the start of a larger c-wave decline, then the rally which topped in the early morning hours should not have exceeded the .
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Grinding Below The All-Time High

This is yet another instance where logic is thrown out the window, if you are paying attention.   Whereas everyone and their grandmother believed that the market was rallying last week due to the peace talks, one has to ask themselves the logical question as to why the market has not dropped strongly now that those peace talks have broken down?    Well, the basic reason is that the market is not driven by logic.  It is driven by emotion.Therefore, attempting to utilize logic for trading/investing is akin to trying to discuss logic to your spouse when they are being emotional.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago
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