Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Metals Rally Before Next Bout Of Weakness

Due to my travels, I do not have a lot of time for this update.  So, I am going to keep it simple.GLD seems to be rallying I the [c] wave of an expanded b-wave flat.  Within the [c] wave, we seem to still need a 4-5 to complete it.   But, should we see a 5-wave decline begin from this point forth, then we can view that as wave 1 of the c-wave down, and the wave 2 bounce could be a good shorting opportunity.Silver is still trying to get to its target blue box to complete 5 waves up.  Thereafter, I would still expect a corrective wave [2] pullback, which would be a good buying opportunity.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 hour ago

Sentiment Speaks: Are Mom and Pop All In?

Oftentimes, people view the market as more of a mystery than it really has to be. When you break the market down into its most simplistic perspective, then you recognize that markets top when everyone is in, and markets bottom when everyone that wants to sell has sold. In other words, when markets reach an extreme in bullishness, the market tops, and when it reaches an extreme in bearishness, the market bottoms.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

This Correction In Metals Just Got More Complex

I am sorry to say, but this correction in the metals complex just got more complex.  Let’s start with GDX, which is showing us a rather complex pattern right now.With GDX dropping in a more direct fashion, it opens the door to two potential paths, ultimately taking us much lower in the coming weeks.   If you would look at the attached 8-minute GDX chart, you will see that we have broken down below the last pullback low with 3 waves so far.  That leaves the door open to either complete all 5 waves down which likely suggests a larger a-wave, which would be following by a b-wave bounce, which could take us several weeks itself.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Certainly “Feels” Bullish - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2025

If we look back to the chart I attached below from April 7, the last thing we “felt” was bullish.   Yet, that was the time to be looking to layer into long positions for the rally we expected to the target/resistance box overhead on that chart, which is what I outlined in my analysis at the time.Today, we are now slightly above that target/resistance box, and I am seeing one article after another declaring that it is time to buy because the bull market is back.  The masses are proclaiming that the "all clear" sign has been given for the market.  Everyone is back to being certain this is bullish again.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Pushing To Extremes Again

First, I want to note that I am still expecting that risk-off action in the market, but only once this rally finally tapers off.  Second, I do also want to remind you that I did warn over the weekend that “[u]ntil we actually begin that break-down, the market can always choose to push higher to the top of the target/resistance box on the 60-minute SPX chart.”  And, the market has clearly chosen to take us to that region and we are hovering there at this time.But, again, I am still expecting that pullback over the coming weeks.  Yet, there are times the market takes us to extremes before it finally turns.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

You News, You Lose!

I am still amazed at how many investors still follow the news for investment decisions. No matter how many studies that are published which suggest that news is not what drives markets, people are still glued to the news and expect they can outperform the market based upon the substance of news events and economic reports.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Relatively Full Now - Market Analysis for May 8th, 2025

As I said just an hour or so ago, we now have a relatively full pattern to the upside, along with some nice negative divergence on the 60-minute MACD.  Moreover, the daily MACD is now hitting the bottom of its resistance box.  Can the market still continue to extend?  Sure.   But, recognize that risk is now rising for a potential reversal when the count is sound and full.  What we are now seeking is a break-down now below yesterday's low to signal that a top is likely in place. So, below yesterday’s low and we are likely in the expected pullback, and we will then need to assess the nature of the pullback to determine which counts to apply.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Rally Topping? - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2025

While I was expecting the metals complex to see a b-wave rally in GDX and GLD, the gold rally has begun a bit earlier than I had expected, as I was looking for a bit lower first.  But, the market had other ideas.In both GDX and gold/GLD, it really seems as the more likely perspective is that this rally is a b-wave.   In fact, the rally in GDX and gold have retraced to the .764 region of the prior decline.  And, while I can make an argument for a 5-wave decline from the high in GDX, I really do not see a clear 5-waves down yet in gold.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Unreliable Structures - Market Analysis for May 7th, 2025

With the market spiking below the 5601ES support level, it has provided us with a minimum pattern for a leading diagonal for wave i down, which can be seen in red on the 15-minute ES chart. While I view leading diagonals as not reliable trading cues or structures, this one came up 3 points short of the 1.618 extension of red waves [i][ii], which is the minimum expectation I would have for a 5th wave in a leading diagonal.  This does make this even a bit less reliable.  So, for now, I am going to leave the wave iv on the table, allowing for one more higher high, especially since the 5601ES level did not see a sustained break.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Bulls Trying To Hang On

In the overnight action, the ES broke down below the initial signal line of 5649ES.  And, thus far, it has held to the 2nd support in the region of the waves iv/(iv).   If this support holds, then we can still see one more rally before this [c] wave tops out.  But, do take note that once we break down below the 1.00 extension during a pullback from the 1.618 extension it means that it will not recover in the great majority of instances.  So, probabilities are increasing that a top is in place for now, but we do need to break down below today’s low to make it likely.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Topping Action? - Market Analysis for May 5th, 2025

Whether the market has actually struck its top to this [c] wave rally, or has another push higher is not something I can state with certainty.  But, as long as the ES remains over the 1.00 extension at the 5649ES level, then I am leaving the door open that today’s pullback is wave iv of wave 5, with one more push higher yet to be seen to complete wave 5 of the [c] wave.So, that would mean that a break down below 5649ES would be an initial signal that a top has potentially been struck, with follow through below the iv/[iv] increasing that probability.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

No More Yellow - Market Analysis for May 1st, 2025

With the market taking out the recent highs and rallying in a 5th wave, I can state that the yellow count is done, as it represented a 3-wave structure. With us completing a 5th wave, we no longer have to worry about the yellow count.Yet, we have bigger degree worries right now. You see, we are now approaching the completion of the [c] wave, based upon my wave count.  We should be in the 5th wave of that [c] wave, and likely have a iv-v to complete within that wave 5.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Gold Still Pointing Lower

It has been relatively clear that gold has been within a consolidation of late.  And, that consolidation seems like a triangle.  The only question today was whether the e-wave of that [b] wave triangle would be able to rally one more time towards just below the c-wave or not.  Initially, I expected it to try one more time to push just a bit higher since the initial move down off the intra-day high looked like a 3-wave decline. But, if we begin to break down below the 3270 region in gold then I have to assume the [c] wave down is in progress.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Apr 30th, 2025

I am posting another update due to this being an important intermediate region right now, which could lead to as much as a 400+ point move. For now, I am viewing the spike and reversal of the support region as the completion of a wave 4 in red.  That means that as long as we hold over today's low, I am looking for a wave 5 rally to continue over the coming days.  Of course, should we break down below today's low, I am going to have to much more strongly consider moving to the yellow count as my PRIMARY, which is what would open the door to the 400+ point decline to the yellow c-wave target box below on the 5-minute SPX chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Need To Watch This Carefully

While the yellow count 1-2 downside set up was invalidated yesterday with the rally over Monday’s high, it may still come back into play.The rally yesterday approached the 1.618 extension of waves 1-2 to the upside.  And, when the natural wave 3 seemingly came up short of the 1.618 extension (the standard target), oftentimes the b-wave (in this case it would be an x-wave) can come back to strike it before declining in the c-wave (in this case a y-wave) to complete wave 4.  This may be what we are seeing right now.So, again, ideally the 5474ES region should hold as support for this wave 4.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Yellow Less Likely Right Now

While the market certainly provided us that “bounce” that I called for in my update yesterday, it actually bounced a bit too much to make the yellow count a strong probability.  You see, when the market moves past a .618-.764 retracement of the prior move, then the probability of a continuation move in an impulsive manner becomes less likely, at least based upon my decades of experience.Yet, we still need to break out over yesterday’s high to invalidate that potential. So, it now provides us with several paths to follow.There is potential that the 5-wave decline we completed yesterday is the c-wave of a running wave 4 flat, as I am showing on the attached 15-minute chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Time To Be On Our Toes

With the reversal today, it looks like the SPX has struck a local top.  So, of course, the question is what top is it?Well, I can make an argument that we had 5 waves down off today’s high.  And, that adds complication.  You see, 5 waves down opens the door that the yellow c-wave may have begun.  But, of course, a-waves can also be 5-wave events, yet that only happens in the minority of circumstances, as the great majority of the time an a-wave is a 3-wave event.So, I think it is reasonable to expect a bounce later today.  The question will then be what kind of follow through to the downside are we going to see.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Sentiment Speaks: Will It Be 7000SPX or 4000SPX In 2025?

If I had asked this question in January, almost all of you would have answered this question with 7000SPX, as almost all analysts and investors were certain that the market was heading to that target this year.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Getting Closer - Market Analysis for Apr 24th, 2025

With the market just barely holding the pivot on the SPX chart, it did break below it in the overnight session in the futures.  So, it did put into question whether the market intended to head directly higher in the red count.  This far, I have to still keep that as the primary count.  It would take a break down below yesterday’s low to suggest otherwise.For now, I would like to see the market rally to the target box for wave v of 3.  Thereafter, I would expect a 4th wave pullback, followed by a 5th wave rally to complete this [c] wave north of 5600SPX.
by Avi Gilburt - 3 weeks ago

Can Gold and Silver Diverge?

The simple answer is “yes.”   In fact, I point it out all the time that, in 2011, silver topped 5 months before gold and only saw a corrective rally while gold went on to its ultimate top during a strong run in the summer of 2011.  And, there is no reason we could not see the opposite occur in 2025.Now, I am not saying that gold has certainly topped.  But, it must be a consideration based upon the manner it rallied into the recent high.   Yet, my primary count will remain with an expectation of a (4) (5) before this cycle completes.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

B-Waves Are Difficult

With the market breaking out today again, it is trying to take us in a more direct fashion to completion of the red (c) wave of the red b-wave.  But, as I posted this morning, we really have to hold the pivot on a wave iv pullback to make this a higher probability.  For now, the market is trying quite hard to do so.As long as this last pullback low holds as support, the market still has a more direct path higher to complete this larger degree b-wave rally.  This is simply following a standard Fibonacci Pinball structure.   Remember, wave iii of 3 often targets the 1.00-1.236 extension of waves 1-2, followed by a wave iv pullback to the .618-.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Two (And Maybe Three) Potential Paths To The Same Place

With the market seemingly putting in a bottom last week, the question that then arises is whether than completed the red [b] wave, or if the [b] wave will continue to trace out the triangle outlined on the attached 15-minute ES chart?Well, to be honest, the SPX and ES are telling two different micro stories.The ES suggests that the triangle will continue to fill in over the next week or so.  The rally today topped at just about the point wherein we can count an (a)=(c) rally off the low struck last week.  We then dropped below the micro pivot, which suggests that this move up was a 3-wave rally.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Still Some Room – But Have An Eye For The Door

Gold has been on an absolute tear of late.  And, while these types of moves get people so excited and interested in gold, they often are seen towards the end of a move rather than the start of a new move when we are this late in the cycle.  If you remember, I set our secondary target for this bull market in gold to the $3400 region.  And, we have almost attained that target.  So while I still believe that we have one more [4][5] structure to complete before this long-term cycle concludes, you must at least consider the potential that we may be concluding it even earlier than I had expected.  Hence, the “alt-top” in red on my GLD chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Was That It?

Well, this morning, both the IWM and EEM made lower lows, and they could be considered completed in their downside structures.  But, as we know, the ES tested its lows overnight, but did not exactly make a lower low.  This type of action makes it much harder to provide confirmation that the low is indeed in place.   But, I think the weight of evidence is starting to shift towards that conclusion.  So, I am going to work on that assumption for now, but I am going to keep one eye open for the potential of a lower low.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Silver Is Never Easy – Until It Explodes

Now, the purpose for which I am providing this analysis to you is not to make you go out and mortgage your house and buy silver calls.  I want you to be very deliberate and reasonable when you approach this chart I am going to show you.   But, the reason I am posting it is because I want you to understand what I still expect to see in the silver market before a major top is struck in the metals complex.If you look at the attached SLV weekly FRACTAL chart, you will see two ellipses noted on the chart.   The one on the left represents the consolidation before the explosion in silver in 2010-11.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago
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