Recent Articles by Avi Gilburt

Nighttime Update - Market Analysis for Apr 18th, 2024

The market is now extending a bit further than I expected at the close. While we have no confirmation that a bottom has been struck, there is another 5-wave extension I have noted on the attached ES chart. But, I want to remind you that this is not unusual when an ending diagonal completes. While the initial decline was slow to develop, we are certainly making up for lost time of late. And, I still think this is just the start. I think we will likely see even bigger fireworks in May and maybe into June once we do see a corrective bounce before likely continuing lower in the coming weeks and months.

by Avi Gilburt - 25 minutes ago

Looking For A Near Term Bottom

With the market break-down below 5091SPX, I have noted my preference for viewing the top as having been struck, which now makes this decline an a-wave. And, I have highlighted the expected support for where I believe the a-wave can bottom on the 5-minute SPX chart, the top of which we are hitting right now.Overall, I do not expect that we will break down below 4946SPX in this initial decline. Of course, if I am wrong, then we may see a much larger decline than I currently expect. But, for now, there are many indications that suggest that we should be bottoming in the support box outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 8 hours ago

Mixed Signals In Metals

The different charts are giving me different signals. So, let me review what I am seeing.First, GLD may have a small 5-wave move off the low, which is better seen in the gold futures. If that is the case, and we get another extension higher, then I have to assume it is simply an extension in wave iii, and not the start to wave v of [3]. Second, GDX has enough waves in place to consider all of its wave [ii] as completed. Yet, the move off the low is overlapping. Of course, it could be starting its next rally as a leading diagonal, but that is not reliable enough for me to turn uber-bullish just yet.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 day ago

Is The Top In Place?

Yesterday, I outlined that a downside follow-through below 5056SPX would get me to adjust my wave count and view the top as being in place as my primary count. And, when you look at the 60-minute chart, you will see that is exactly where I now stand.Clearly, I am still going to want to see a break down below 4946SPX to make that a much higher probability, but I have seen enough thus far to view it as more likely than not that the top is now in place, and my wave structure is being presented accordingly. Now, there are a few issues I addressed in alerts today, which I want to repost in my afternoon report.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 days ago

Risks Are Rising - Market Analysis for Apr 15th, 2024

Today, the market has broken below the 5091SPX support level we have been outlining for some time. And, that provides us with a strong warning that we may have struck a major market top of many wave degrees. For the last several months, I have been urging you to be developing a plan to put into action as the market provides us indications that a major market top is being struck. And, we have now seen our first indication that you should be putting that plan into action. Should the market continue below 5056SPX, then I will likely turn my primary count into the SPX having topped, as that would then break down below the wave ii as shown.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Nothing Broken . . . Yet - Market Analysis for Apr 11th, 2024

I know it may sound like a broken record already, but we still reside over 5091SPX, so the bulls still have a path to 5300+.Yet, I do want to point out that we have broken down below the uptrend channels outlined on the daily SPX chart, and the MACD has begun to decline. However, the MACD on the 60-minute chart is now in the support zone within this rally, and has turned up today. But, due to the nature of the last segment of this decline, I cannot be sure we have struck a bottom since the structure of the decline is not clearly indicative of a completed 5-wave c-wave structure.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

No Room Left - Market Analysis for Apr 10th, 2024

Yes, there really is no room left on the upside before the breakout in GDX and silver begin in earnest. But, as long as we remain below this week’s high, there still remains potential for more of a pullback.In silver, that would be wave 2 of wave [iii]. In GDX, I am slightly changing my count and now viewing the pullback as wave [ii] within wave iii of [3] of 3. Alternatively, I would view it as wave ii, if the pullback turns out to be a bit deeper.The main point is that the next time we take out this week’s high will likely suggest we are in the heart of the 3rd wave in both GDX and silver.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Quick Update - Market Analysis for Apr 10th, 2024

The set up the market left us with yesterday has clearly not followed through to the upside. However, as you can tell from my 60-minute chart, caution has been warranted for some time now. While I have outlined the potential for the IWM to have already topped, I am still not yet convinced the SPX has done so. Remember, I need to see a CLEAR and sustained break of 5091SPX to really begin that process. Moreover, should the IWM complete 5 waves to the downside, as outlined on the 60-minute chart, that would be a VERY bearish indication for the rest of 2024, after we see a 2nd wave bounce.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Still Looking Up – For Now

While the market made a valiant attempt at breaking out through 5220SPX this morning, alas, it only was able to muster a spike and reversal at that resistance region. This led to the break down below 5197SPX which I outlined last night would point us down towards the 5160SPX region. At this point in time, it looks like the deeper b-wave is taking shape. But, it still leaves us with the same general perspective: As long as remain over 5146SPX, then I am still going to be looking up towards the prior highs to complete the [a] wave of wave v of 5.As an aside, this is one of the reasons that diagonals are treacherous trading environments.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

b-Wave Consolidation - Market Analysis for Apr 8th, 2024

From the looks of the current action, it would seem the market is simply engaged in an ongoing b-wave consolidation.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Sentiment Speaks: Why Did Gold Go Boom?

I have to be honest that the metals complex is my favorite segment of the market to trade, especially when it is rallying. In fact, my first public articles were mostly focused on this complex.For those that have followed me over the last decade or more that I have been writing publicly, you probably know that I was able to call the high in 2011 for gold within $6 of the high we actually struck. Moreover, I then outlined my downside expectation of around $1,000 for gold before it even topped. And, many thought of me to be crazy with that expectation, especially in light of gold being within a parabolic rally at that time.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Are We Heading To 5300+ Now?

As I highlighted earlier this week, trying to distinguish this rally between the [a] wave of wave v of 5, which is pointing us north of 5300SPX, and the [b] wave of a more protracted wave iv will be almost impossible. You see, both structures are most commonly 3-waves in nature, which means they will look exactly alike.And, in truth, I went back and forth today regarding which is my primary and which is my alternative. As I said a number of times, the standard expectation would be for a deeper wave iv in the diagonal structure, which would follow the yellow path now on the 5-minute chart.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Let It Run - Market Analysis for Apr 3rd, 2024

The metals market has been running quite nicely and we have been enjoying the fruits of our patience. But, I am going to admonish you to not get too cute in your positions. To that end, I will be opening this update with a quote from Jessee Livermore, and closing it with another quote of his as well.“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Are We Done With The Pullback?

While the market struck our resistance on the 5-minute chart at the open this week, we have now pulled back to the support/target box for wave iv. And, the question now is if this represents all of wave iv?As you can see from the attached SPX chart, I am tracking this as an [a] wave within an expected more protracted wave iv. Also, take note that the ES chart shows that even within this [a] wave, until we actually get through the 5260ES region (.382 retracement of wave 3 of the c-wave down), a lower low is a reasonable expectation before the decline today completes.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Multi-Day Pullback?

I have been trying to keep my analysis as simple as possible over the last several weeks. And, in its simplest view, as long as we remain over 5091SPX, the bulls still remain in control for now.

by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

That’s Five Up

I can keep tonight’s metals update VERY simple. As I outlined in a very early morning post about the metals, I was still looking for a 5th wave higher high to begin quite soon. So, yes, ladies and gentleman, that is now 5 waves up off the most recent lows, and a strong signal that a 3rd wave has potentially begun for 2024. The action today in GLD, GDX and silver seem to provide us with a 5th wave rally. And, yes, that is a strong indication that the rally we expect for 2024 is setting up. Yet, as you know, I really would like to see even further confirmation.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 weeks ago

Still Trying To Keep This Simple

For now, it is clear that the market is holding the 5091SPX support we have been outlining of late. Moreover, we have rallied right back towards the 5180SPX resistance, and backed off again.So, I do not think there is much more to say. As long as we remain over 5091SPX, the bulls remain in control. And, should they take out the 5180SPX resistance region, it will point us to the 5260-5285SPX region to complete the [c] wave of wave iii of this ending diagonal in wave 5. I want to add a point I made in this morning's live video.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Sentiment Speaks: How Do You Explain The Crazy Week We Just Had?

If you had been following the market closely this past week, it likely would have left you scratching your head if you were trying to align the news with the market action.For example, on Wednesday, the inflation report came out hotter than expected. Yet, it did not phase the market in the slightest, as the market continued to hit its head on the 5180SPX resistance region we outlined a few weeks ago. Then on Thursday, we again supposedly received some "bad" inflation news an hour before the market opened. Yet, the futures did not react to the downside.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Weird Action Today - Market Analysis for Mar 14th, 2024

After the worse than expected inflation report came out this morning, the market continued to hover up near the resistance region once again. And, it was not until after the market open did this decline today begin. Oftentimes, when the market shrugs off bad economic news, it usually leads to a move in the opposite direction that many would expect based upon the substance of the news. While that occurred initially, the downside thereafter is a bit unusual. Yet, we cannot question price. So, how do we interpret it?Well, in the bullish count, this is supposed to be a [c] wave of iii, which is usually a pretty strong move up.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Still Trying To Complete 5 Up

Over the weekend, I tried to get many of you to still maintain a bit more patience until the market provides us with the next set up:“Well, one thing I have learned about metals is that you do not get in their way when they are running, in the same manner in which one avoids standing in front of a run-away train when it is moving forward. So, I have no wise words right now other than suggesting we let the market run until it does not. Once we begin to see a reasonable pullback/consolidation which takes more than a few days, then we can begin to make certain assessments of the structure of the rally.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Bulls Are Still Dancing Around That Last Chair As The Music Continues

I want to start out this update with warning again that we have not yet broken any support. And, until we do, you should consider holstering any bearishness.Nonetheless, I have to say that today’s action in the futures is very overlapping and uncertain, even for a diagonal structure. Yet, as I just noted, we have not broken any support. The one chart that came close to breaking support today was the IWM. Off the recent high, I can outline an a=c decline into the 203 region today. That could indicate a corrective 3-wave pullback – if we hold 203 – which can open the door to one more push higher.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

One Path Left For 5350SPX

With the break-down of the standard Fibonacci Pinball structure we were tracking towards the 5350-5390SPX region on Friday, the SPX has one path left which can still take us there. Yes, that is the beloved ending diagonal structure. There is not a lot I can really outline for this beyond what we know of diagonals. The standard target for wave iii of the diagonal is the 1.236 extension of waves i-ii, which is in the 5260SPX region. I have the general path outlined on the attached 5-minute chart, as you can see.However, I must warn you.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Sentiment Speaks: It Is Time For A Serious Dose Of Caution

As the market continues higher, so do the expectations of most market participants, as well as their desire to place more money into the market. And, that is something that has always amazed me about the stock market.I presented the question in an article entitled “Buying High, Selling Low: No No No:”“In most all aspects of our purchasing lives, we are in search of “The Deal.” We look for the best price in just about anything we acquire. We will spend days comparing prices on our car purchases to get the best possible price. We will spend hours and hours to find the best possible price on that HD 50’ television that we so desire.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

We Will Continue To Raise Support

As the market continues to follow through on the upside set up, we now seem to be rallying in wave [iii] of iii outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart. This will push us closer towards the top of wave 5, which will complete the c-wave of a larger 5th wave within an ending diagonal, as outlined on the 60-minute SPX chart.So, with the market moving up, I am moving up micro support to the low of wave [ii] in the 5093SPX region. So, if anyone wants a tight stop, that would likely be it for now. Should the market continue higher to the 1.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

Quick Follow Up On Metals Market

Well, thus far, the metals have continued their bullish run. And, we are now nearing a point in time where we can begin expectations of cooling off a bit, as they begin to back and fill, working their way to 2nd wave pullbacks. So, let’s take a brief look at the individual charts.Staring with GLD, I am assuming this is simply an extension to wave 3, as we are even approaching the region at which the market topped in the afterhours session a few months ago. And, I have added a support region for wave 4 as well. In GDX, I am also going to assume we are completing a more extended wave (iii).

by Avi Gilburt - 1 month ago

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