Adding IWM Thoughts Today

No, I still have nothing to add to the SPX analysis.  But, based upon the fact that we have no clear 5-wave decline from the high thus far, the door is still open for tomorrow’s catalyst of the Fed rate decision to ignite one more rally before this wave tops. But, all parameters outlined in prior updates still very much apply.

However, in the event that we have indeed topped, then I would be looking more towards the blue count, as we do not have a clear 5-wave decline off the high, as it is looks relatively clear as a 3-wave corrective decline.

So, today, I am including the similar paths I see in IWM.  As you can see, we have rallied to the .618 retracement of the prior decline, which means that the b-wave could be complete.  But, when I go into the micro count, I can easily see one more small rally to give us a higher high and actually strike or spike that .618 retracement before this rally ends.  So, do not be surprised if one more push up may still be seen before a reversal.

As you can see from the IWM chart, I think it is a high probability that it has its high in place. In fact, it’s technical high was made back at the end of 2021, with the one struck at the end of last year completing a b-wave of a larger degree [a] wave which completed at the April low, which is the green count.  But, in honesty, even though I usually shy away from the more complex counts up front, I actually like the more complex yellow count being presented, with the high made last year being an [x] wave within a much larger and complex [w][x][y] pattern presented in yellow. And, if we do get a better 5-wave decline to begin this move off a high, then I will likely make that my primary.  Right now, I would say I am 50/50 between the two paths, even considering my affinity towards the yellow count.  I simply want more proof.