GDX Has A Lot Of Catching Up To Do
By
Avi Gilburt
With silver leading to the downside of late, I am now tracking it as completed its wave v of (iii) of 3 in its c-wave down. That would mean I am looking for a bounce in wave (iv) of 3 in the near term.
As you can see from the 8-minute chart, I have lowered resistance. And, as long as the next bounce is corrective and respects resistance, I will be continuing to look lower in the coming days.
Another point I want to make about the silver action is that we can see in real time how the 5th waves are quite extended in the metals. So, I would expect this to continue through the wave (v) of 3, and then wave 5 as well. So, as long as we see those extensions, I would expect we can reach at least the 35.50 region before this c-wave down is completed. Ideally, I would actually like to see the 34 region struck, but that will depend on how extended these 5th waves get.
As long as today’s high in GC holds as resistance, I am viewing us in wave 3 down. The only question is if this decline is the c-wave of wave 3 in the ending diagonal structure, or if it will take shape as a standard 5-wave decline per the yellow count, which would complete a c-wave of a y-wave in a very complex structure. I still am not sure about which path this is taking.
The bigger problem is GDX. It seems like it has a lot of catching up to do to get down to its target. But, it really is still the best count I can come up with as it is very hard to justify that we are already in wave 5. Yet, I cannot say that I have a clears structure in the micro count at this time, which is why I did not include the 8-mintue chart.
On the whole, I am still looking lower in the complex. And, as long as resistance holds on bounces, that will likely be our playbook for at least the next week or two, or until we get down to our targets.
