Metals Are Getting People Very Bullish Again

Whenever I have questions about a chart, I will usually go back to the larger degree.  And, the larger degree in both GDX and GLD tell me that I have NO reliable way to consider wave 4 as complete, which means I have no reliable reason to believe wave 5 has begun.   So, despite everyone being so certain that we are starting a new major move in the complex, I am still struggling with that potential.

Furthermore, since we know that 5th waves in metals are usually going to be parabolic and strong moves, it is HIGHLY likely they will begin with a standard 5-wave structure for their first wave. And, here again we fail another test for the 5th wave already being in progress as we do not have a CLEAR 5-wave structure having begun, especially in GLD.  Therefore, in my opinion, it is unlikely that wave 5 will be an ending diagonal in metals, as any count for a 5th wave in GLD would be as an ending diagonal.. Again, leaves me wanting for a completed 4th wave.

So, while I can always be wrong in my assessment - and I have been quite clear about not having a shorting set up yet in the metals complex for a strong c-wave decline - I also have no strong indication that I should be adding aggressive long positions due to the reasons above. For now, I continue to ride my core long positions, and will be watching for signs of a c-wave decline. which I am still expecting based upon all the reasons provided in my analysis above.

As far as silver is concerned, the only other interpretation I have is that wave (1) may not het be done.  Either way, I am going to expect a pullback still there as well.  But, again, I have no low risk high probability opportunity to add aggressive long positions or to short for a c-wave yet.