Slow Summer Day - Market Analysis for Aug 25th, 2025

The market seems to be meandering lower today, and it still very well holds within the expectations for a b-wave pullback.  While I MAY be able to classify today’s rally in the SPX as a leading diagonal (of course, which I do not see as a highly reliable cue), the futures look very corrective in this bounce. This leads me to the conclusion that we are in the midst of the b-wave pullback.

So, as long as we remain below Friday’s high, I am going to maintain the expectation of a continued pullback into tomorrow. Ultimately, the upside does not look complete yet, so I am going to also assume that we will see another rally to our target box before an expectation of a toping structure completing.

I want to issue a strong warning though.  While I can easily see this rally as finally completing with this structure, we MUST see a break down below last week’s low to even have an initial indication that a top has been struck.  Of course, confirmation comes in a break down below 6212SPX.  But, the warning is not to get too bearish too soon.  This market has not been kind to those who are attempting to front run a top.