Is That Our “Bounce” In Metals?
By
Avi Gilburt
My main premise has been that we are likely within a 4th wave consolidation/pullback in gold and GDX and a 2nd wave in silver, and I am still very much of that opinion. The question with which we have been grappling is whether the c-wave of that 4th wave in gold and GDX and the 2nd wave in silver has begun? For now, I am still of the opinion that it has.
In both gold and GDX, we have what can be viewed as a 1-2, i-ii downside set up developing. While the structure of that move down is not at all ideal, it does leave a question in my mind as to whether we may even see a bigger wave 2 (alt 2) take shape or even a b-wave triangle take shape in the coming weeks before the c-wave begins in earnest. But, for now, I am tracking a more immediate path for that c-wave, as you can see on the various charts.
The 60-minute GC chart may be the cleanest (and I am using that word with broad literary license) of the structures right now. My primary count has the most aggressive path being presented, as the market may even be completing the wave ii bounce as I write this update on Thursday morning. If we see a break down below this week’s low, that will open the door to us being in the heart of a 3rd wave down in that c-wave. But, even if we do break this week’s low sooner rather than later, I will be considering a bigger ending diagonal structure for that c-wave as my alternative if we do not get the follow through we should assuming a heart of a 3rd wave decline.
I am also assuming that GDX is in a similar posture in its micro count. So, the same analysis would apply there as well.
As we know, silver has been dancing to the beat of its own drummer for many years. And, it seems to continue to do so. I have a different count on that chart, as it is seemingly setting up for what I would expect to be a major catch up move at the end of this cycle. Therefore, I now have silver completing a [c] wave of a b-wave in a larger [a] wave in its wave ii. An impulsive break down below 36.50 would be a very initial indication that the c-wave decline in this [a] wave was in progress.
In summary, I would now be on guard for indications that a strong move down may begin, as the set up for it is just about in place. While the structure is not the cleanest, there is enough in place for us to be aware that it can trigger at any time now.
