Specific Micro-Path Higher Has Not Materialized

While the holding of support and rallying last week has certainly opened the door to the next higher targets (despite how long-in-the-tooth this rally already is), as I mentioned in the weekend update, the specific path higher is not at all clear.   You see, while the rally off last week’s test of support began with a potential impulsive rally, the movement since has been anything but.  This leaves us wanting for a structure within a potential 5^th wave higher, as outlined on the 5-minute SPX chart.

One of the paths I am considering is presented on the attached 15-minute chart.  As you can see, it suggests that we can till have a bit more of a pullback in a [c] wave from today’s high.  But, since that [c] wave would be within an [a][b][c] flat, it would suggest that we should hold the low struck by the [a] wave in the 6334ES region.

So, as I noted over the weekend, as long as 6334ES holds as support, this would point us higher in the coming week or two. It would take a sustained break of that support to suggest we would get another test of the higher degree support box presented on the 5-minute SPX chart.  And, as of now, I have no standard projection which would suggest that support is going to be broken.

In summary, as long as the 6334ES region holds as support, I can still look higher towards the higher target box presented on the 5-minute SPX chart.  A sustained break of that support can suggest that a top has indeed been struck, but we would need a LOT more proof before being able to assume that a larger degree decline has begun.