Quick Point On Gold

As of now, we have 3 waves off the low struck in gold at the end of July.  However, we do not have 5 waves down, unless it morphs into a leading diagonal, which still needs a lower low off yesterday's high.  But, if gold pushes to another high in this rally off the low from the end of July, that would make this rally 5 waves up, and I would have to strongly reconsider further immediate downside.

That then brings me to a question as to why we would have 5 waves up here.  And, I do not have a good answer as I still have no confidence that we have a completed bigger 4th wave.  But, if we do see 5 waves up with another higher high off the end of July low, then I have to assume the market is going to attempt to push higher as long as we hold over the end of July low on the ensuing pullback from the 5-wave rally.  Again, I am still questioning how that fits into the bigger pattern.

So, as for me, if the market does give us that 5 up, I would strongly urge that you do not short this market for as long as we remain over the low struck at the end of July. But, I really do not have enough confidence in the overall structure to be aggressively trading the upside, but I will be riding the long positions I still own in the complex.

Just to repeat, if we do get a higher high in the coming day or so, then it would suggest a 5-wave rally has completed off the low struck at the end of July.  And, it would also suggest that the market could very well be setting up for higher.  While I have a major question as to what that rally will be at this point in time, it does tell me not to be shorting this, but at the same time, I do not have enough confidence in the overall structure to be aggressively trading the long side.  Yet, I will gladly ride it with the current positions I have been holding for quite some time.