For me SPX has to be the (4) now rather than only 4 of (3) even though RSP still argues strongly for the latter. Even that is getting deeper than ideal, but we still have a corrective move off the Jan high and many charts and sectors still supporting at least OMH. EW looks for the most probable path extensions can happen in either direction but cannot be relied upon. I do think we are getting a glimpse of what might be an underlying root cause of the bigger declines to come.
Some more freebies before I go offline/vacay👇Keep eyes on these sectors XLF+XLB and do some homework...setting up for another upside acceleration into ATHs1~2 month of digestion so far. Getting tight...and ready to uncoil. Level by level approachXLF line in sand = last week's low 34.90s. Now, 36.48~. Prior ATH = 38.6~XLB line in sand = last week's low 78.60s. Now, 82.85~. Prior ATH = 89.
key sectors...held where they HAD TOO....they where the tape tell that gave the confidence yesterday should be IT....as i've been harping on for a few weeks....the 4 horsemen to take this tape up an out remain: Industrials, Materials, Financials...and Emerging markets (yes not a sector)....
since all these held beautifully and positions are set....now we are just left with watching patiently as they need to just continue to plot along Continuing their paths...
reversals would be warnings...but till then nothing to do...lazy river for a bit....
we need blue micro on ES chart....to take foot and get the 5 up...and turn the SPX hourly into the iii of (III) up....
key levels marked on both charts, both short term and bitbacked out...
this count is predicated on Industrials and Financials and Materials getting their Leadership MOMO going...without them...tape will fall on its own weight....
keepin it REAL'.....
Not seeing anything to change my tune....Back out play the Daily charts (if you have a swing trader mentality).
Likely to be a bunch of noise the next 48 hours and this week with FED, NK summit etc etc....
I'm headed to New Yawk for a work deal in a bit for my flight...so won't be on much till Thursday when i return.....keeping my core swings as posted to Jan, Mar and June 2019....and some of the momo shorter dated for now...
As Industrials, Materials, Financials and HC keep strenghthening I believe they will LEAD as stated a bunch of late...Consumer Discretionary and Energy just needs the continuation leadership....
once EEM jumps on board...
Tech has been the bandito, obviously over the past few years. Needs no introduction. It led the tape for much of the run from 2016 (4th) wave lows. It now represents a cool 25% of the SPX. So as we've heard as Tech goes, the SP 500 goes.
Or does it?
Its easy to point to it as the leader and draw conclusions from it. Yesterday and Today Iam seeing SOmuch to do about the FANG's...all down on the day or mildly up underperforming the Tape by a wide margin. To me...what the FANG's do for the next few months is inconsequential to the TAPE. They are much to do about nuttin....say what?
What Lies beneath has been building strength.
I’m convinced, EW theory is THE best way to approach markets for investing/trading. Whether you’re scalping micro moves, day trading swing trading or long term investing, EW always has you covered. Most people have a lens or a way they view the market but how consistent over time is it? For myself I like fractals and have made life changing trades off them. But as my trading days add up [and] the value of EW becomes clearer, especially when coupled with fib #s, I have to give credit to you Avi for this!
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