I was rooting for the more near-term bullish path in red from my last post, but the drop in Bitcoin seems to favor a top in the blue count instead. If the blue count continues to play out, then a 4th wave correction can eventually take price back to 42k - 32k overall before completing.Otherwise, the only more immediately bullish count I see is that last week's high was the b-wave in an expanded flat 4th shown in red. This path would look best with one more low to complete the wave c of (iv), but not required since WXY structures are more common in cryptos.
This pullback in Bitcoin fits well as wave B of iii within the red diagonal imo. Tested a .500 retrace at the low this morning. If price does continue to follow the red count, then 68880 is the next target for wave C of iii.
Bitcoin is now entering into the lower end of the target region for wave v of 3 that I laid out back at the end of Feb. How high price wants to reach into the blue target box depends on which is the correct subwave count. Right now I am leaning red.
The cash SPX chart is a little easier to count as an impulse compared with ES, and can be approaching a local top within the next ~30 points as wave iii of (iii) to setup a near-term consolidation as wave iv of (iii) next.
The DAX closed higher as well, and like the STOXX has just about satisfied the expected upside for wave 5 of iii. Therefore, while extensions are always possible, once that target is achieved then we can consider the high probability portion of wave 5 of iii has filled out, allowing for a corrective consolidation as wave iv of (iii) next.
ES should be turning up here in a 4th wave bounce within an ending diagonal wave c of (ii). 3890 is the ideal target to reach as wave 4 before turning back down for OML as wave 5 of c to complete wave (ii) around ~3840.
Looks like the final wave v of (v) in Bitcoin will fill out as an ending diagonal. As long as price is holding above the Mar 15th low (and ideally above last night's low) I expect one more high into the blue target box.
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