To (b) or not to (b)?

Today the market started off the session initially lower, following expectations that a local top was struck as wave (a) of b at the overnight high. As price approached the 5080 signal support discussed in the morning video, I noted that even under the assumption that wave (b) of b was filling out, we could see a bounce from that level as a smaller degree b-wave within wave (b). Price followed that suggestion and bounced during the afternoon session, retracing back up to the .764 retrace of wave a of (b). 

Therefore, if price is following the blue count and intends to still pull back further in wave (b) of b, then ideally it maintains below the afternoon high. Above there could technically still be wave b of (b) as a wider flat, but it otherwise begins to shift probabilities more in favor of the red path that can take price directly to the next fib resistance above between 5145 - 5189 as the .500 and .618 retrace to complete all of circle wave b in a more accelerated fashion.

ESM24 - Intraday - Apr-24 1247 PM (10 min)
ESM24 - Intraday - Apr-24 1247 PM (10 min)
Garrett Patten is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering both U.S. and international equity indices as well as stocks.