I have said FOMO is the worst of traders' emotions.It's pretty simple.Fear prevents you from taking positions. While fear can take a toll in opportunity cost, at least you keep your money.But, FOMO causes you to take high prices in 'fear' of losing opportunity cost causing you to accept poor risk to reward.FOMO is more pronounced in new or immature traders. Such traders trade each position as if its the last trade they'll ever find. That's simply a lack of confidence. As you gain mileage as a trader, you know there's another trader around the corner. If you're a scalper you know there is a trade every day.Fortunately FOMO has a couple treatments:1.
Here's the text for those that couldn't get past paywalls:SummaryWe've been looking for six-figure Bitcoin since December 2018 and may finally be on our way.The current correction in Bitcoin is a chance to buy.Despite this strong bull, we share key levels so Bitcoin traders and investors know what must hold for this rally to continue.Produced by Ryan Wilday, along with Avi GilburtWhile many have been trying to apply fundamental analysis to the crypto world with quite varied and inconsistent success, our Fibonacci Pinball method has helped us navigate Bitcoin's machinations quite well through the years. In fact, there has been nothing I have seen that has better and more accurately tracked the price action in this market.
My reasons for driving some of my trading, and this service, to Quantitative approaches, is not only to diversify the approach in the service, and obviously help us all make more money, but also to drive part of the service to simple, measurable results. Elliott Wave is still a quintessential tool in my box, and one that allows me to take many trades without the deep work I put into algos, just to get even one functional. However, Elliott Wave depends on both subjective and objective measures. And, I have built up an arsenal of trading skills to 'buffer' the subjective concerns.
Some of you have heard me mention 'decision crisis' on our Saturday morning campfire sessions (Aka Webinars). 'Decision Crisis' is either a term I can take credit for, or something bestowed on me by osmosis. I thought I'd take the time to elaborate.
Let's dive into a very common thought process on EWT I observe frequently:
A member is stalking a trade. They take a look at the count of a favorite analyst. It's Bullish!. Awesome! He's putting those long tickets together. Then he peaks at another analyst's count and it's looking for lower before long. Ai Caramba. Confusion! What to do? He asks the board. 'Anyone going long XYZ here?' A smart member says looking for lower. Ok.
With the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, I am not going to be on. I am the family chef and will be exerting my passion on smoking a Turkey and making the rest of the feast, then enjoying the fruits of my labor. This means there will be no report as well.I plan to be on normal time Friday. Most of my team will take a half day due to shortened stock market hours. I'll judge based on crypto activity. If slow, I'll take the half day as well.
Quick lesson as everyone goes alt hunting....
Remember the trend is your friend, [or your worst enemy].
My worst fear personally is seeing a decline in my Bitcoin holdings as I catchcrap with low liquidity alt coins before it runs to $250K in a couple years. Bitcoin has a massive bull flag on the weekly, most major alts are massive bear flags off the 2018 high. Very simple. Before chasing an alt, know what you're getting into to vs. Bitcoin. It may be shortlived as it fights all that overhead resistance.
Exhibit A, the EOSBTC chart. Very similar to so many pre 2017 majors.
Note I'm going to do a BTC options webinar after close Friday. I'll record it so no need to attend unless you want to be there to ask questions. [Editor's Note: Here's the link to the recording.]I suggest watching Leo's video on convexity before attending.https://www.youtube.
I had a lot of basic questions on algo functions, so I want to do some concise review of use:BTCCoreThis Algo only yields signals at 5PM Pacific closing.* There are no signals outside that time. There is no other reason for this other than it was what I tested to find its edge and I did so because 5PM Pacific has been a time of handoff between US traders and Asian traders so price anomolies in crypto often showed during that time.This algo signals whether there is an edge to be all in (100%), 50% or 0%. The only signal that has a price definition is the move from 100% to 50%.
I'm an intermediate Ether bear. Right now, stickingto present tense, we have five down off the September high and have a sideways moving bear flag. It's a very orthodox bear setup as a 1-2, or A-B. What will get get me bullish in ETH? I am asking this question simply because we just had a nano bearish setup invalidate. Note 'nano' not 'intermediate'. This necessitates that bearish scalpers take cover. It doesn't mean long termers should run to go long YET. Do we have a case of the gummi bears in Ether?
The best tool I can draw fromwhen dealing with overlapping structure is to look at channel breakouts and traditional techs.
Last night, I received feedback regarding the long term sections in reports and I intend to address it. A critical post was put up and deleted, though not by me. The person in question DM'd me good feedback which I'm going to attempt to address. My personal approach to the long term write up has been to not refresh it until we have a key point in the market demands it. I've taken this approach for a simple reason. When, in the past, I allowed the micro to impact my daily counts, long-termers would get upset that my long term view was changing rabidly. So, I am now very cautious about making changes.
We're slow and I have not posted a trading lesson in a while, so time for a refresh of old lessons. This should be familiar for OG's. I'm going to pick on my XMR count which was posted below. It's a chart I am not intimate enough with to get more in the weeds so I have uncertainty in my analysis. Actually all analysis has uncertainty. That's markets but it's exacerbated when you are not intimate with a chart. But in my work, unless you are scalping, I gave you enough information to work off of. As stated, over $101 both counts are valid. This means below it, red can be eliminated, and a top in white is likely.
Since the March 2020 breakdown, my leaning has been that our large coins are unlikely to achieve escape from the bear market that started with the 2017 top in Bitcoin -- and now I suggest we’ve seen the 2020 rally complete.
by Ryan Wilday - 7 months ago
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""misterk" - Trading Room" - 2021-04-15
Here is an End of the Year THANK YOU, Avi and EWT staff! I joined EWT this year in April, and was really despondent in how my retirement plans and trading account had been performing. I have been trading commodities and stocks for 30 years, and could never keep what I would make in the market. Never. Always gave it all back, and then some. The desire of my heart was to trade for a living, and finally, after 30 years, I can see this as a possibility! I switched to a self-directed 401K at work, and started trading a personal account with you all in April. My accounts are up 320% since April thanks to you! Until then, I was looking at possibly not being able to retire for a long time, but not now. I never knew when to get out of a position. I was always wrong. If I hung on it went down. If I closed out the position, it went up. I was ALWAYS wrong...so frustrated. I owe my success all to you, Avi, and EWT, and the EWT members. SO from the bottom of my heart...THANKS so much. I really appreciate you all!! I have tears of happiness because of you all. HAPPY NEW YEAR, and happy trading in 2021. I am really looking forward to it, for once!
""Wheat" - Trading Room" - 2020-12-30
What I love about EW is you know when things go wrong and you know when to get out of a position at minimal damage...it has helped so much in my RR work
""Kenneth_Aydt" - Trading Room" - 2019-10-03
My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
""AAMilne" - Trading Room" - 2021-03-02
Love this community! If you have a mindset to learn, this place is a gold mine.
""FletchFFletch" - Trading Room" - 2021-05-07
Unparalleled value...can't even imagine trying to trade without this service.
""GoodLuckChuck" - Trading Room" - 2021-05-05
In about twenty years learning in the markets the most gifted, talented person in the world, regarding markets analysis, I've encountered is Avi Gilburt
""FALLACY_NAVIGATOR" - Trading Room" - 2021-04-30
Your team are the best traders & analysts. truly a world class trading site.
""MambaMentality" - Trading Room" - 2021-03-04
I love this site. You’ve changed my life. Thank you so much for all that you do!
""Dee19" - Trading Room" - 2021-05-07
The relief of EWT philosophy on investing has been such a gift (besides being extremely profitable) that I have to say this is the most enjoyable service offered anywhere on the internet and probably the best investment I have ever made. Thanks Avi.