Recent Articles by Ryan Wilday

Market Analysis for Jun 12th, 2025

I am going to set a limit order to short Bitcoin futures at $108,430 with a stop at $109,320. I am going to try to ride a trade to $99K. We'll see how that works.
by Ryan Wilday - 2 weeks ago

Semler Scientific is Setting Up for Bruising

Based on the chart, it seems sentiment is turning on SMLR before the Bitcoin cycle.
by Ryan Wilday - 3 weeks ago

Nightly Crypto Report, June 5th, 2024: Bitcoin Finally Cracks its Floor

Bitcoin finally followed through on its looming fifth wave. Now I am looking for a low to form.
by Ryan Wilday - 3 weeks ago

Coinbase's Last Leg - Market Analysis for May 25th, 2025

In my March 14th article, I highlighted the potential for a significant low in Bitcoin, setting the stage for the final leg of this bull market. That low materialized in early April at $74,500. Since then, Bitcoin has surged past $111,000, marking a robust rally of nearly 50%. This move has set Bitcoin up to hit my long-term target at $125K.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 month ago

Weekly Crypto Report: Chop Continues

Zooming in, so long as Bitcoin holds above $68K, another run to between $116K and $120K in circle-5 looks viable.
by Ryan Wilday - 2 months ago

Bitcoin: The Last Opportunity of 2025

I used my last article to warn you about a coming bear market in Bitcoin. I took up my keyboard because I noticed the crypto market sentiment regarding the Trump presidency was reaching new levels of silliness. In essence, many talking heads in the space used Trump’s positive stance on crypto to suggest that the bull cycle was just beginning. Yet Bitcoin has already made a 400% run in price over two years. I don’t mean to be unappreciative regarding Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance. His has abolished an enforcement regime against the industry that was not based in the rule of law.
by Ryan Wilday - 3 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: In the Opportunity Zone

Bitcoin is in the zone where it can find a bottom.
by Ryan Wilday - 4 months ago

Market Analysis for Jan 20th, 2025

One of the things I've learned about trading is that once you put on a trade, and set your stop, you let it play out, and not let scary candles second-guess the trade. For me, the stop is $91,500 because I'd rather size down and give a trade room. If you let scary candles preempt you out of a trade, you will miss some nice trades. You might save a dime here and there. What is more important is that not being able to stick to a trade plan is a characteristic that will deter one's ability to trade profitably in the long term. At least it will keep you from maximum performance. It's weak sauce psychology.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

Bitcoin: Shut Off The Narrative, You Might Miss The Top

Bitcoin: Shut Off The Narrative, You Might Miss The TopAs published on Seeking AlphaCatching UpIt has been more than four months since I have been able to write an article. What started as a fun and busy late summer traveling precipitated into a challenging late 2024 working through a health scare with one of my family members. In the meantime, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) jumped out of its summer doldrums, after a brief breach of my key $50,600, into an unstoppable march toward my long-term target zone.I did have time to visit Rena Sherbill at the Seeking Alpha Podcast to discuss my concerns that Bitcoin breached $50,600. In that conversation, I was giving Bitcoin a chance since the breach was brief, lasting roughly 15 minutes.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

Bitcoin: Shut Off The Narrative, You Might Miss The Top

As published on Seeking AlphaCatching UpIt has been more than four months since I have been able to write an article. What started as a fun and busy late summer traveling precipitated into a challenging late 2024 working through a health scare with one of my family members. In the meantime, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) jumped out of its summer doldrums, after a brief breach of my key $50,600, into an unstoppable march toward my long-term target zone.I did have time to visit Rena Sherbill at the Seeking Alpha Podcast to discuss my concerns that Bitcoin breached $50,600. In that conversation, I was giving Bitcoin a chance since the breach was brief, lasting roughly 15 minutes.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Finally Some Structure

Finally, Bitcoin corrects enough to help give the chart some microstructure to ground micro expectations.
by Ryan Wilday - 7 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Pressing On

Bitcoin continues to push upward in the red count.
by Ryan Wilday - 8 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Filled In

Bitcoin has filled in what I wanted to see in order to complete circle-B. Now we see what it is made of.
by Ryan Wilday - 9 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Patience Counts

Patience is a virtue as Bitcoin continues to work through wave two.
by Ryan Wilday - 11 months ago

Bitcoin Is In The Buy Zone

Bitcoin has gone sideways for four months, causing many to wonder if the bull market is over. While no one can predict the future, so far this action is a run-of-the-mill bullish consolidation that provides the launch pad for Bitcoin’s next move higher.
by Ryan Wilday - 11 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Good Time to Retrace

I am watching for a wave four pullback in both Bitcoin and Ether. If they hold, that would give us further support for the bottom being in.
by Ryan Wilday - 11 months ago

Nightly Crypto Reports, July 15th, 2024

Leaning HigherLong Term:Intermediate views are included.Housekeeping:I am on vacation from July 20-23 so there will be no webinar on the 20th. However, I will initiate a special webinar, or offline video if action demands it.Micro:GeneralNote that I am starting to lean toward the bottom being in. However, 'leaning', 'primary view', and 'alternate view', are all useless words for forming a strategy. The question is whether the risk to reward is in one's favor. With the way I bought in small in the recent lows, I can wait for five waves, and a wave two before I position more aggressively. My leaning can be wrong, and the market has proved nothing yet.
by Ryan Wilday - 11 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Decision Forthcoming

If Bitcoin is going to hold $62,745 it should reverse this weekend.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 year ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Precarious

Ether is leading the downward movement, while Bitcoin hovers in a tight range, yet very precariously over support levels.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 year ago

Ethereum Can't Seem To Catch Bitcoin

[Article posted on SA on May 7th, 2024]The bull market in Bitcoin rages on, and I have no reason to move away from my target of $125K. Bitcoin also held the more aggressive bullish support level of $36K discussed in the article I wrote in January after spot ETFs began trading on US exchanges.This more bullish count, which I called the red count in the article, showed the next target as $66K, which was also an attack on the previous all-time highs made in 2021. That level was struck in early March, but Bitcoin stretched a bit further to $73K before starting the flat correction it is now working through.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 year ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Decision Starts Now

Bitcoin and Ether are in their first test off the recent lows. The decision as to whether we need another low or not starts now.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 year ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Turning Higher

I now assume Bitcoin has formed a bottom of sorts.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 year ago

NOTE error on the CLSK spread.

All- I just noticed that I wrote puts on the cal spread this week. That was not the intent it was a call spread. If you are short the put, I'd cover it. Or you can wait for Monday and exercise the long side and it will be a scratch. Sorry that was a pretty bad screw up. Another solution is to roll it to $27 or $26 that express next week. Lastlly if you don't mind keeping the shares, you can sell a call at $28 or hold for the $30 target.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 year ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Can't Stop This Train

Bitcoin is pushing against the idea of a correction, again.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 year ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Holding Steady

Ether seems to have started its fourth, but will Bitcoin follow?
by Ryan Wilday - 1 year ago

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