Recent Articles by Ryan Wilday

Nightly Crypto Report: Waning Quality Of Micro Charts

Bitcoin and Ethereum are weak, and the setups for higher are questionable.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 week ago

Crypto-Alerts: Will Bitcoin Put In One More Low?

Early last month, Jason Appel posted an article discussing the bullish action we saw in Bitcoin miners. Since that article, the two highlighted stocks, RIOT and MARA, were up 8% and 22%, respectively, before the recent pullback.Jason also discussed how Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was ‘stuck in the mud’ at the time, in a sideways range for over a month. This action left us preferring a flush lower before the macro trend takes Bitcoin higher. But to counter that perspective, he offered his ‘curveball potential’ made more likely if Bitcoin rallies to $44-$49K.
by Ryan Wilday - 4 weeks ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Bitcoin Finds A Bounce

Bitcoin finally found a bounce -- we'll see what this bounce is made in the next day or two.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 month ago

Crypto-Alerts: Altcoins Are Potentially Toxic Right Now

(published to Seeking Alpha this morning)This article was produced by Ryan Wilday with Avi Gilburt and Jason Appel.While we are going to focus on altcoins in this article, I think it makes more sense for us to begin with our stance on Bitcoin (BTC-USD). For as Bitcoin goes, so goes the rest of the crypto market. Our team had fully expected, since 2019, to see $65,000 Bitcoin. But is there more to go, or has this bull market finished?For the last few months, our team has expressed a cautious tone regarding Bitcoin in the short term. However, for the more patient investor, the ~50% correction since 2021’s high of $64,900 provided a buying opportunity.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 month ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Detour Well Underway

We now have 5 waves higher in Bitcoin making the 'detour' higher the primary view before a flush lower.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 month ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Hope To Bulls

If Bitcoin can hold $32,180 and break back over $34,500, we have further evidence that a bottom is in.
by Ryan Wilday - 2 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Who Is Fibbing?

There is a marked difference between Ether and Bitcoin as Ether basically has a high consolidation versus its recent range, while Bitcoin continues to risk a severe drop.
by Ryan Wilday - 3 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Action Remains Constructive

Both Ether and Bitcoin struck a bottom overnight and put in five waves into our intraday highs, which bodes well for a breakout as long as we hold over yesterday's low.
by Ryan Wilday - 3 months ago

Regarding Skew + Money Management

Newsletters and Trade services like this one like to highlight their performance numbers. Usually, this comes in the form of a success rate. ‘70% of trades are profitable’ may be the way the headline reads. Besides the fact that such statements are not terribly helpful unless verified by a third-party service, it can lead subscribers down a hazardous road if such a statement doesn’t come with education and qualification.Further, the longer you are exposed to professional traders, the more you will realize how lofty figures over 60% can be. Those that have blazed the hard trail of trading for a living are lucky to sustain a win rate well over 50%.
by Ryan Wilday - 3 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Still Butting Heads

Bitcoin continues to bump up against the local resistance region and needs to clear $62,100 to break free.
by Ryan Wilday - 4 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Encouraging Action Off Low

Bitcoin and Ether dropped deeper last night, though action into the late afternoon is constructive and I'm looking for signs of a confident bottom.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

Market Analysis for Apr 8th, 2021

I have said FOMO is the worst of traders' emotions.It's pretty simple.Fear prevents you from taking positions. While fear can take a toll in opportunity cost, at least you keep your money.But, FOMO causes you to take high prices in 'fear' of losing opportunity cost causing you to accept poor risk to reward.FOMO is more pronounced in new or immature traders. Such traders trade each position as if its the last trade they'll ever find. That's simply a lack of confidence. As you gain mileage as a trader, you know there's another trader around the corner. If you're a scalper you know there is a trade every day.Fortunately FOMO has a couple treatments:1.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: BTFD Day

Basically, we have a good solid pullback into the support region.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Going Deeper Still

The cryptos have continued to flush with no confident bottom pattern.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Looking Up, But For How Long?

The current action in Bitcoin and Ether should give us legs to climb higher in the coming days.
by Ryan Wilday - 6 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Reaching Higher

Yesterday we tested important support, but overnight we saw a nice reversal putting counts back on track.
by Ryan Wilday - 7 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: One More Low?

Our potential bottom remains rather fragile, and I must continue to leave open the possibility of one more low, particularly in Bitcoin.
by Ryan Wilday - 7 months ago

Sentiment Speaks: Bitcoin Is Going To $150,000

Here's the text for those that couldn't get past paywalls:SummaryWe've been looking for six-figure Bitcoin since December 2018 and may finally be on our way.The current correction in Bitcoin is a chance to buy.Despite this strong bull, we share key levels so Bitcoin traders and investors know what must hold for this rally to continue.Produced by Ryan Wilday, along with Avi GilburtWhile many have been trying to apply fundamental analysis to the crypto world with quite varied and inconsistent success, our Fibonacci Pinball method has helped us navigate Bitcoin's machinations quite well through the years. In fact, there has been nothing I have seen that has better and more accurately tracked the price action in this market.
by Ryan Wilday - 7 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Bull Keep The Ball

The grind continues, and the market is keeping it easy for me.
by Ryan Wilday - 8 months ago

Q4 2020 Algo Review

My reasons for driving some of my trading, and this service, to Quantitative approaches, is not only to diversify the approach in the service, and obviously help us all make more money, but also to drive part of the service to simple, measurable results. Elliott Wave is still a quintessential tool in my box, and one that allows me to take many trades without the deep work I put into algos, just to get even one functional. However, Elliott Wave depends on both subjective and objective measures. And, I have built up an arsenal of trading skills to 'buffer' the subjective concerns.
by Ryan Wilday - 8 months ago

2020 Closes With Crypto In A Swagger

Ride this train into 2021 as long as it has wheels, but do manage your risk as we go -- what cryptos giveth, they also taketh away.
by Ryan Wilday - 8 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Sideways To Up-Bias In Price Action

It appears that at least Ether is pushing for the 5th, while $18080 is still key in the key battle line in Bitcoin.
by Ryan Wilday - 9 months ago

Avoiding Decision Crisis - Market Analysis for Nov 26th, 2020

Some of you have heard me mention 'decision crisis' on our Saturday morning campfire sessions (Aka Webinars). 'Decision Crisis' is either a term I can take credit for, or something bestowed on me by osmosis. I thought I'd take the time to elaborate. Let's dive into a very common thought process on EWT I observe frequently: A member is stalking a trade. They take a look at the count of a favorite analyst. It's Bullish!. Awesome! He's putting those long tickets together. Then he peaks at another analyst's count and it's looking for lower before long. Ai Caramba. Confusion! What to do? He asks the board. 'Anyone going long XYZ here?' A smart member says looking for lower. Ok.
by Ryan Wilday - 9 months ago

Holiday Schedule - Market Analysis for Nov 25th, 2020

With the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, I am not going to be on. I am the family chef and will be exerting my passion on smoking a Turkey and making the rest of the feast, then enjoying the fruits of my labor. This means there will be no report as well.I plan to be on normal time Friday. Most of my team will take a half day due to shortened stock market hours. I'll judge based on crypto activity. If slow, I'll take the half day as well.
by Ryan Wilday - 9 months ago