Recent Articles by Ryan Wilday

Nightly Crypto Report: Still Butting Heads

Bitcoin continues to bump up against the local resistance region and needs to clear $62,100 to break free.
by Ryan Wilday - 2 days ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Encouraging Action Off Low

Bitcoin and Ether dropped deeper last night, though action into the late afternoon is constructive and I'm looking for signs of a confident bottom.
by Ryan Wilday - 3 weeks ago

Market Analysis for Apr 8th, 2021

I have said FOMO is the worst of traders' emotions.It's pretty simple.Fear prevents you from taking positions. While fear can take a toll in opportunity cost, at least you keep your money.But, FOMO causes you to take high prices in 'fear' of losing opportunity cost causing you to accept poor risk to reward.FOMO is more pronounced in new or immature traders. Such traders trade each position as if its the last trade they'll ever find. That's simply a lack of confidence. As you gain mileage as a trader, you know there's another trader around the corner. If you're a scalper you know there is a trade every day.Fortunately FOMO has a couple treatments:1.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 month ago

Nightly Crypto Report: BTFD Day

Basically, we have a good solid pullback into the support region.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 month ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Going Deeper Still

The cryptos have continued to flush with no confident bottom pattern.
by Ryan Wilday - 1 month ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Looking Up, But For How Long?

The current action in Bitcoin and Ether should give us legs to climb higher in the coming days.
by Ryan Wilday - 2 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Reaching Higher

Yesterday we tested important support, but overnight we saw a nice reversal putting counts back on track.
by Ryan Wilday - 2 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: One More Low?

Our potential bottom remains rather fragile, and I must continue to leave open the possibility of one more low, particularly in Bitcoin.
by Ryan Wilday - 3 months ago

Sentiment Speaks: Bitcoin Is Going To $150,000

Here's the text for those that couldn't get past paywalls:SummaryWe've been looking for six-figure Bitcoin since December 2018 and may finally be on our way.The current correction in Bitcoin is a chance to buy.Despite this strong bull, we share key levels so Bitcoin traders and investors know what must hold for this rally to continue.Produced by Ryan Wilday, along with Avi GilburtWhile many have been trying to apply fundamental analysis to the crypto world with quite varied and inconsistent success, our Fibonacci Pinball method has helped us navigate Bitcoin's machinations quite well through the years. In fact, there has been nothing I have seen that has better and more accurately tracked the price action in this market.
by Ryan Wilday - 3 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Bull Keep The Ball

The grind continues, and the market is keeping it easy for me.
by Ryan Wilday - 3 months ago

Q4 2020 Algo Review

My reasons for driving some of my trading, and this service, to Quantitative approaches, is not only to diversify the approach in the service, and obviously help us all make more money, but also to drive part of the service to simple, measurable results. Elliott Wave is still a quintessential tool in my box, and one that allows me to take many trades without the deep work I put into algos, just to get even one functional. However, Elliott Wave depends on both subjective and objective measures. And, I have built up an arsenal of trading skills to 'buffer' the subjective concerns.
by Ryan Wilday - 4 months ago

2020 Closes With Crypto In A Swagger

Ride this train into 2021 as long as it has wheels, but do manage your risk as we go -- what cryptos giveth, they also taketh away.
by Ryan Wilday - 4 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Sideways To Up-Bias In Price Action

It appears that at least Ether is pushing for the 5th, while $18080 is still key in the key battle line in Bitcoin.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

Avoiding Decision Crisis - Market Analysis for Nov 26th, 2020

Some of you have heard me mention 'decision crisis' on our Saturday morning campfire sessions (Aka Webinars). 'Decision Crisis' is either a term I can take credit for, or something bestowed on me by osmosis. I thought I'd take the time to elaborate. Let's dive into a very common thought process on EWT I observe frequently: A member is stalking a trade. They take a look at the count of a favorite analyst. It's Bullish!. Awesome! He's putting those long tickets together. Then he peaks at another analyst's count and it's looking for lower before long. Ai Caramba. Confusion! What to do? He asks the board. 'Anyone going long XYZ here?' A smart member says looking for lower. Ok.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

Holiday Schedule - Market Analysis for Nov 25th, 2020

With the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, I am not going to be on. I am the family chef and will be exerting my passion on smoking a Turkey and making the rest of the feast, then enjoying the fruits of my labor. This means there will be no report as well.I plan to be on normal time Friday. Most of my team will take a half day due to shortened stock market hours. I'll judge based on crypto activity. If slow, I'll take the half day as well.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

Trend is Your Friend

Quick lesson as everyone goes alt hunting.... Remember the trend is your friend, [or your worst enemy]. My worst fear personally is seeing a decline in my Bitcoin holdings as I catchcrap with low liquidity alt coins before it runs to $250K in a couple years. Bitcoin has a massive bull flag on the weekly, most major alts are massive bear flags off the 2018 high. Very simple. Before chasing an alt, know what you're getting into to vs. Bitcoin. It may be shortlived as it fights all that overhead resistance. Exhibit A, the EOSBTC chart. Very similar to so many pre 2017 majors.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

BTC options webinar - Market Analysis for Nov 18th, 2020

Note I'm going to do a BTC options webinar after close Friday. I'll record it so no need to attend unless you want to be there to ask questions. [Editor's Note: Here's the link to the recording.]I suggest watching Leo's video on convexity before attending.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

Algo Review: EWT Crypto Service

I had a lot of basic questions on algo functions, so I want to do some concise review of use:BTCCoreThis Algo only yields signals at 5PM Pacific closing.* There are no signals outside that time. There is no other reason for this other than it was what I tested to find its edge and I did so because 5PM Pacific has been a time of handoff between US traders and Asian traders so price anomolies in crypto often showed during that time.This algo signals whether there is an edge to be all in (100%), 50% or 0%. The only signal that has a price definition is the move from 100% to 50%.
by Ryan Wilday - 5 months ago

What's Next For Bitcoin?

Intermediate- to long-term, if Bitcoin can now hold a wave 2, we can see a push to $34K, but if that wave 2 does not hold, we should consider the 2020 rally complete barring unforeseen.
by Ryan Wilday - 6 months ago

Ether Gummi Bears?

I'm an intermediate Ether bear. Right now, stickingto present tense, we have five down off the September high and have a sideways moving bear flag. It's a very orthodox bear setup as a 1-2, or A-B. What will get get me bullish in ETH? I am asking this question simply because we just had a nano bearish setup invalidate. Note 'nano' not 'intermediate'. This necessitates that bearish scalpers take cover. It doesn't mean long termers should run to go long YET. Do we have a case of the gummi bears in Ether? The best tool I can draw fromwhen dealing with overlapping structure is to look at channel breakouts and traditional techs.
by Ryan Wilday - 6 months ago

Change to Reports - Market Analysis for Nov 2nd, 2020

Last night, I received feedback regarding the long term sections in reports and I intend to address it. A critical post was put up and deleted, though not by me. The person in question DM'd me good feedback which I'm going to attempt to address. My personal approach to the long term write up has been to not refresh it until we have a key point in the market demands it. I've taken this approach for a simple reason. When, in the past, I allowed the micro to impact my daily counts, long-termers would get upset that my long term view was changing rabidly. So, I am now very cautious about making changes.
by Ryan Wilday - 6 months ago

Nightly Crypto Report: Bitcoin and GBTC Go Alone

As I look across the crypto market over the short term, I see fresh bearish-after-bearish setup.
by Ryan Wilday - 6 months ago

Trading Lesson Refresh - Market Analysis for Oct 15th, 2020

We're slow and I have not posted a trading lesson in a while, so time for a refresh of old lessons. This should be familiar for OG's. I'm going to pick on my XMR count which was posted below. It's a chart I am not intimate enough with to get more in the weeds so I have uncertainty in my analysis. Actually all analysis has uncertainty. That's markets but it's exacerbated when you are not intimate with a chart. But in my work, unless you are scalping, I gave you enough information to work off of. As stated, over $101 both counts are valid. This means below it, red can be eliminated, and a top in white is likely.
by Ryan Wilday - 6 months ago

2020 Rally Complete in Bitcoin & Ether?

Since the March 2020 breakdown, my leaning has been that our large coins are unlikely to achieve escape from the bear market that started with the 2017 top in Bitcoin -- and now I suggest we’ve seen the 2020 rally complete.
by Ryan Wilday - 7 months ago