Early last month, Jason Appel posted an article discussing the bullish action we saw in Bitcoin miners. Since that article, the two highlighted stocks, RIOT and MARA, were up 8% and 22%, respectively, before the recent pullback.Jason also discussed how Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was ‘stuck in the mud’ at the time, in a sideways range for over a month. This action left us preferring a flush lower before the macro trend takes Bitcoin higher. But to counter that perspective, he offered his ‘curveball potential’ made more likely if Bitcoin rallies to $44-$49K.
(published to Seeking Alpha this morning)This article was produced by Ryan Wilday with Avi Gilburt and Jason Appel.While we are going to focus on altcoins in this article, I think it makes more sense for us to begin with our stance on Bitcoin (BTC-USD). For as Bitcoin goes, so goes the rest of the crypto market. Our team had fully expected, since 2019, to see $65,000 Bitcoin. But is there more to go, or has this bull market finished?For the last few months, our team has expressed a cautious tone regarding Bitcoin in the short term. However, for the more patient investor, the ~50% correction since 2021’s high of $64,900 provided a buying opportunity.
Newsletters and Trade services like this one like to highlight their performance numbers. Usually, this comes in the form of a success rate. ‘70% of trades are profitable’ may be the way the headline reads. Besides the fact that such statements are not terribly helpful unless verified by a third-party service, it can lead subscribers down a hazardous road if such a statement doesn’t come with education and qualification.Further, the longer you are exposed to professional traders, the more you will realize how lofty figures over 60% can be. Those that have blazed the hard trail of trading for a living are lucky to sustain a win rate well over 50%.
I have said FOMO is the worst of traders' emotions.It's pretty simple.Fear prevents you from taking positions. While fear can take a toll in opportunity cost, at least you keep your money.But, FOMO causes you to take high prices in 'fear' of losing opportunity cost causing you to accept poor risk to reward.FOMO is more pronounced in new or immature traders. Such traders trade each position as if its the last trade they'll ever find. That's simply a lack of confidence. As you gain mileage as a trader, you know there's another trader around the corner. If you're a scalper you know there is a trade every day.Fortunately FOMO has a couple treatments:1.
Here's the text for those that couldn't get past paywalls:SummaryWe've been looking for six-figure Bitcoin since December 2018 and may finally be on our way.The current correction in Bitcoin is a chance to buy.Despite this strong bull, we share key levels so Bitcoin traders and investors know what must hold for this rally to continue.Produced by Ryan Wilday, along with Avi GilburtWhile many have been trying to apply fundamental analysis to the crypto world with quite varied and inconsistent success, our Fibonacci Pinball method has helped us navigate Bitcoin's machinations quite well through the years. In fact, there has been nothing I have seen that has better and more accurately tracked the price action in this market.
My reasons for driving some of my trading, and this service, to Quantitative approaches, is not only to diversify the approach in the service, and obviously help us all make more money, but also to drive part of the service to simple, measurable results. Elliott Wave is still a quintessential tool in my box, and one that allows me to take many trades without the deep work I put into algos, just to get even one functional. However, Elliott Wave depends on both subjective and objective measures. And, I have built up an arsenal of trading skills to 'buffer' the subjective concerns.
Some of you have heard me mention 'decision crisis' on our Saturday morning campfire sessions (Aka Webinars). 'Decision Crisis' is either a term I can take credit for, or something bestowed on me by osmosis. I thought I'd take the time to elaborate.
Let's dive into a very common thought process on EWT I observe frequently:
A member is stalking a trade. They take a look at the count of a favorite analyst. It's Bullish!. Awesome! He's putting those long tickets together. Then he peaks at another analyst's count and it's looking for lower before long. Ai Caramba. Confusion! What to do? He asks the board. 'Anyone going long XYZ here?' A smart member says looking for lower. Ok.
With the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, I am not going to be on. I am the family chef and will be exerting my passion on smoking a Turkey and making the rest of the feast, then enjoying the fruits of my labor. This means there will be no report as well.I plan to be on normal time Friday. Most of my team will take a half day due to shortened stock market hours. I'll judge based on crypto activity. If slow, I'll take the half day as well.
by Ryan Wilday - 9 months ago
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""misterk" - Trading Room" - 2021-04-15
Here is an End of the Year THANK YOU, Avi and EWT staff! I joined EWT this year in April, and was really despondent in how my retirement plans and trading account had been performing. I have been trading commodities and stocks for 30 years, and could never keep what I would make in the market. Never. Always gave it all back, and then some. The desire of my heart was to trade for a living, and finally, after 30 years, I can see this as a possibility! I switched to a self-directed 401K at work, and started trading a personal account with you all in April. My accounts are up 320% since April thanks to you! Until then, I was looking at possibly not being able to retire for a long time, but not now. I never knew when to get out of a position. I was always wrong. If I hung on it went down. If I closed out the position, it went up. I was ALWAYS wrong...so frustrated. I owe my success all to you, Avi, and EWT, and the EWT members. SO from the bottom of my heart...THANKS so much. I really appreciate you all!! I have tears of happiness because of you all. HAPPY NEW YEAR, and happy trading in 2021. I am really looking forward to it, for once!
""Wheat" - Trading Room" - 2020-12-30
What I love about EW is you know when things go wrong and you know when to get out of a position at minimal damage...it has helped so much in my RR work
""Kenneth_Aydt" - Trading Room" - 2019-10-03
My AUM has grown exponentially because of you and I can't thank you enough. My biggest regret is not signing up sooner! You've done more good than you will ever know.
""AAMilne" - Trading Room" - 2021-03-02
Love this community! If you have a mindset to learn, this place is a gold mine.
""FletchFFletch" - Trading Room" - 2021-05-07
Love this community. Best analysts anywhere, and so many terrific experienced members who are generous enough to share their thoughts and trades. . . None of us can control the market, but this site provides more confidence via the counts and suggested stops. Appreciate you all! Absolute rock stars!
""WildWestie" - Trading Room" - 2021-05-19
Unparalleled value...can't even imagine trying to trade without this service.
""GoodLuckChuck" - Trading Room" - 2021-05-05
In about twenty years learning in the markets the most gifted, talented person in the world, regarding markets analysis, I've encountered is Avi Gilburt
""FALLACY_NAVIGATOR" - Trading Room" - 2021-04-30
Your team are the best traders & analysts. truly a world class trading site.
""MambaMentality" - Trading Room" - 2021-03-04
I love this site. You’ve changed my life. Thank you so much for all that you do!