Market Update

by Avi Gilburt

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for subscribers to Avi's Flagship and Nightly services. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

Just Be Aware - Market Analysis for Jan 2nd, 2026

This is not going to be a long update, but I do have to outline what you need to look for to become much more protective in the metals complex.As I have noted many times, if we get 5 waves down off the high in gold, it will put us on watch for a potential 1-2 down pointing us towards a (c) wave decline to the 3800 region.  And, with the 1-2 potential in place now in yellow, the action from the rally high this morning is a potential 5-waves down also.
by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

In the Support Zone, but No Confirmation of a Bottom Just Yet

Today we moved lower, deeper into the support zone for the potential wave 4, but we still do not have a five-wave structure off that low to confirm that a bottom is in place just yet. The move down off the high is, so far, corrective in nature, which is supportive of this being a wave 4. However, until we see a full five waves up off the low and a break of at least the 6,950 level, this can still push a bit lower before finding a bottom.If we break below support, which I now have at the 6,912–6,889 zone, it would open the door for a larger top to be in place.
by Mike Golembesky - 6 days ago

Long Set Up Developing

With the market finally providing to us a sizeable pullback, we are now at the support region for both gold and silver.  So, let’s start with silver.As we can see on the 144-minute chart, price has come down to the top of the support box, and the MACD has now dropped down to the oversold region from which prior rallies have begun.   So, this is a general buying signal.   The only question is whether the low for this c-wave of wave 4 is in place yet.  But, with the decline yesterday really only counting best as a 3-wave drop, I cannot say with a high degree of confidence that it has completed.
by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Looks Like A Triangle

With the sideways action today, it does look like the market is trying to trace out a triangle.  While we most commonly see triangles in b-wave and 4th wave positions, it seems a bit big to be a 4th wave in the c-wave of wave 4.  So, by process of elimination, I think it may be a b-wave triangle, with a c-wave decline to the support likely our next step.So, to keep this simple, as long a we remain below 6913SPX, then I can look for a c-wave decline, which seems to be pointing towards the lower end of the support box.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Enough For Wave 4?

This is a pretty straight forward update to write.  We have been expecting a smaller degree wave 4 pullback, and today we may have completed it.   The smaller degree structure approached the pivot in the SPX (whereas the ES struck the top of its pivot to the penny), and it also exhibited positive divergence near the lows today.   So, there is a strong potential that wave 4 may be done.  And, once we get a larger degree 5-wave structure off the low, we can set our sights for wave 5.  But, I must warn you.  There is a strong probability we may come up short of the 7000SPX level.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Mixed Signals In Metals Suggests SOME Caution Going Forward

As I warned in the weekend update, silver was getting a bit overheated and was concerning me about a potential early blow off top.  So, the bigger caution issue I am seeing on my charts is now the silver chart.  If you remember back in the spring, as I was outlining the potential parabolic rally we were expecting, we based our views upon the 2010-2011 market fractal for its parabolic rally and blow off top. As the market began that rally, we were able to then assign a general target region for that rally, which we placed on the weekly SLV chart.
by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Moving The Pivot Up

With the market seemingly completing the wave iv of wave 3 in the bullish count with a pullback this morning to the 1.00 extension of waves 1-2, the market seems to be rallying in wave v of 3.  The typical target for that wave degree is the 1.618 extension of waves 1-2, which is the 6915SPX region.However, with wave iv of 3 only pulling back to the 1.00 extension, it does open the door that we can see an extension in wave v of 3.  But, even if we do, I am still not seeing much to suggest we will see an appreciable push through the 6950SPX region.  But, we will see how extended wave v of 3 becomes before we make any final determinations regarding wave 5.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Holding The Pivot - Market Analysis for Dec 22nd, 2025

We expected that the market will likely make a decision as to whether it wants to head directly to higher highs early this week.  And, the gap up today has now made the pivot on the 5-minute SPX chart our primary focus.   Remember, when the market rallies to the 1.236 extension of waves 1-2, then it is likely that we will hold the .764 extension as support for wave iv if we are in wave 3.  And, that is where I believe we are right now within the bullish count.  That now means that, if the market has intentions of new highs over the coming week or two, then we will not break back down below the pivot.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Bullish Set Up In Place

While I cannot guarantee how the market is going to move, I can outline potential set ups which present a good risk/reward type of structure.  And, I am seeing one now in SPX.With the market bottoming around the .500 retracement and the original target we had for this last decline, we have rallied in what counts relatively well as a 5-wave structure off the low.  I would then view that as wave 1 of the (c) wave.  Thereafter, we had a sharp pullback, which is a bit clouded in its structure, but which I am assuming is a wave 2.
by Avi Gilburt - 2 weeks ago

Market Sees Continuation Lower, but Price Action Remains Sloppy

Today we saw the market continue to work lower, putting Santa’s Rally on hold for now. The price action to the downside remains quite sloppy and increasingly overlapping, which suggests this decline may be unfolding as an ending diagonal, potentially forming the second leg of what is still a corrective move lower. The key question is whether this correction can complete in time for Santa to arrive and push the market higher ahead of the holiday next week.As shown on the ES chart, I am having difficulty identifying a full and complete pattern into today’s low. This suggests we may still have some unfinished business to the downside before seeing any meaningful push higher.
by Mike Golembesky - 2 weeks ago
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