Downside Set Up - Market Analysis for Mar 4th, 2026

While I am showing a potential 1-2, i-ii in both gold and silver, I have to note there are a number of issues with it.  First, I cannot say that the wave i structure is the cleanest of 5-wave structures.  Second, normally, wave i of 3 will target AT LEAST the .382 extension of waves 1-2, whereas they normally target the .618 extension of waves 1-2.  And, what I have labeled as wave i of 3 has not even come close to the .382 extension.  

So, needless to say, I really need a bit more evidence to make this immediate downside set up a much higher probability. 

The other issue I have is that I really have no clear similar downside set up in GDX.  So, this certainly adds to the questions I have outlined above about whether we are indeed ready for the larger degree c-wave decline.  Again, remember we are likely within a larger degree corrective structure, and if the b-wave has not yet completed, then further machinations can be seen before we are ripe for a c-wave decline.

Should we see further downside movement in the coming days, I will add pivots to the various charts to set up our Fibonacci Pinball structure to the downside.  And, should we see follow through, then silver should be targeting the 47 region and gold the 4000-4300 region. 

But, again, the issues noted above do leave me questioning whether we see more of a rally before we are ready for the downside follow through.  So, I am going to assume that the action we see in the coming day or two can answer whether we begin that downside or if a more protracted wave 2 or even more protracted b-wave may take hold before the downside is ready to progress.  

The bigger conclusion that we can surmise is that the structure off the a-wave lows are not indicative that another major bull phase has begun.  Rather, the rally structure is clearly a 3-wave corrective one, which leaves us with the higher probability expectation being that a c-wave decline is being set up one way or another.