A Clouded Market - Market Analysis for Mar 2nd, 2026
By
Avi Gilburt
Part of my job is not just to simply provide cut and dry Elliott Wave analysis. You see, in doing my job, there are times I must read messages being sent to us by the market action, which can assist in my primary job of providing analysis. Let me explain.
The market had a potential 1-2, i-ii downside structure in place (albeit with a shallow wave ii), which means we had a set up for a 3rd wave down coming into today. And, we even got a negative catalyst to ignite that 3rd wave down. Yet, the market did not take advantage of that set up.
Moreover, the futures declined down to a 1.00 extension off the recent highs, and then rallied back through the pivot I outlined on the ES chart.
Both these signals are not strongly indicative of a continuation lower in the near term.
But, I also have another issue on the bullish side of the market which has only come up very rarely.
While the futures have broken their upside 1-2 potential in the yellow count I have been outlining as the bullish alternative, the SPX did not see that same break. There have been only a handful of times wherein I was forced to discount the nighttime action in futures as lower volume moves which did not accurately represent mass sentiment. This MAY be one of those times. But, as I am sure you can understand, this is not a strong support to the bullish alternative.
So, it leaves us with a downside set up that has, thus far, refused to follow through, and an upside set up that was invalidated in the futures action but not in the SPX action as of yet. As you may be able to tell, I am trying to give you my thought process when looking at the SPX/ES charts.
Therefore, in taking all these factors into account, I cannot say that I am reasonably left with a high probability expectation in either direction. Both have some serious issues.
So, until the market provides other clues regarding near term direction, I am sorry to say that I am forced to view this action as relatively neutral as both paths have major issues. Therefore, I have to resolve this view with the same perspective I have been presenting in the bigger picture: Until the 6720/30SPX support is broken, the bulls still remain in control, as we have no clear evidence suggesting the bears have wrestled control away from them. But, for now, we still seem to be stuck in the middle.
