About Luke Miller

Luke Miller Luke Miller, host of our Bayesian Analysis service and Bayesian Signal Alerts premium add-on, provides Bayesian Timing analysis on a range of markets, including the equity indices, energy and metals, plus swing trade signals in ETFs tracking these markets.

An Associate Professor of Economics & Business at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, Luke has actively traded the Bayesian timing system since 2007. The strategy trades ETFs long and short for an average hold time of several days to several months.

Luke's Bayesian timing research, which analyzes options pricing to determine market direction and provide more reliable market timing than traditional cycles analysis. has been presented all over the world. It most recently won Best Presentation Award at the 18th International Conference on Business & Finance in Paris in 2016.

In 2003, Luke earned the Gilbreth Memorial Fellowship (top PhD student in the nation) and has since published over one dozen peer reviewed journal articles and a book in his area of expertise.

About Luke's Bayesian Services:

The Bayesian Analysis service provides Bayesian timing analysis applied to Avi Gilburt's charts on SPX, GDX, USO & DXY, based on Luke's proprietary timing model. Luke also offers a premium add-on Bayesian Signal Alerts service, which provides analysis on additional ETFs plus trade signal alerts.

Luke's services are premium add-ons for members of our Avi’s Market Alerts flagship service.

Story Archive

SPY Probabilities Pointing to ATHs

The important 292-296 resistance band in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was overwhelmed last week and thus opens up the probability (about 70%) of the SPY moving to all-time highs.
by Luke Miller - 1 week ago

Odds of Slightly Better Than A Coin Toss Support Long Positions

By slightly more than a coin toss, odds continue to support long positions in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), even if the Bayesian signal has remained Neutral.
by Luke Miller - 3 weeks ago

Eye SPY Long

With the SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY) spiking down to the pivotal 184-185 level on August 14, the Bayesian Timing System (BTS) determined the risk-reward set up was there for a long signal.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Low 290s Important Decision Zone for SPY

If Bayes could wish upon a star, then the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) loses its lunch over the next few trading days into a vibration window low between 8/2 and 8/5 that targets the low 290s.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Bullish Path in U.S. Indices, Metals & Oil

As we've noted over the past week, any type of bullish catalyst should unleash a push back towards 300 in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), if not through it.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Bullish Multi-Week View of SPY

It appears our Bayesian Timing System (BTS) was correct in looking down to the 290-291 area in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) before higher.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Neutral on S&P 500 and Metals, Next Several Weeks Key

The next several weeks has the potential to dictate the next 6-12 months.  A corrective retrace into mid-June that stays below 290-293 in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) supports a conditional probability of a sharp drop through the summer.  Above 290-293, and all-time high odds in the 300s increase quickly.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

Bayesian Path Is Lower in SPY

The Bayesian Timing System (BTS) still believes the path lower will begin or has already begun in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY).
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago

Looking for Path Lower to Still Begin in April

Our Bayesian Timing System still believes the path lower for U.S. indices will begin in April. Plus, analysis on gold (GLD), miners (GLD), oil (USO) and the dollar (UUP).
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago

Eyeing Path Lower in April

Our Bayesian Timing System (BTS) still believes the path lower for the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) will begin in April and most likely a top is seen before the end of next week
by Luke Miller - 5 months ago