About Luke Miller

Luke Miller Luke Miller, host of our Bayesian Timing Signals service and its BTS Leveraged ETF Trading sister service, provides Bayesian Timing analysis on a range of markets, including the equity indices, energy and metals, plus swing trade signals in ETFs tracking these markets.

An Associate Professor of Economics & Business at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, Luke has actively traded the Bayesian timing system since 2007, during which time it has generated 30% per year. The strategy trades ETFs long and short for an average hold time of several days to several months.

Luke's Bayesian timing research, which analyzes options pricing to determine market direction and provide more reliable market timing than traditional cycles analysis. has been presented all over the world. It most recently won Best Presentation Award at the 18th International Conference on Business & Finance in Paris in 2016.

In 2003, Luke earned the Gilbreth Memorial Fellowship (top PhD student in the nation) and has since published over one dozen peer reviewed journal articles and a book in his area of expertise.

About Luke's Bayesian Services:

The Bayesian Timing Signals service provides market timing analysis on a range of markets, including the equity indices, energy and metals, plus Swing Trade Signals in ETFs tracking these markets. The signals, with a time horizon of several days to several months, are tracked on a portfolio page.

The service also includes Luke's Daily Thoughts, posted prior to market open, providing an overview and look ahead on the covered markets.

The BTS Leveraged ETF Trading service focuses on 1-3x ETFs for varying asset classes in a proprietary 5-bucket system. It issues trade alerts based on the proprietary Bayesian signal focusing on opportunistic profits and disciplined risk management.

Luke's services are premium add-ons for members of our Avi’s Market Alerts flagship service, and available at a discount when added together.

Story Archive

Wall of Resistance Comes Down (Finally) for GLD

Finally, the 114 wall in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) comes down!  Now it begins to get interesting.
by Luke Miller - 1 week ago

Bayesian Probabilities Point to SPY Washout in the 250's

Many things our Bayesian Timing daily write-ups have discussed regarding the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) since June 2018 have generally played out.
by Luke Miller - 1 week ago

U.S. Indices Continuing to Look Higher

Bayesian signals remain long in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), short in US Oil (USO), and long in gold and silver (GDX, GLD, SLV).
by Luke Miller - 2 weeks ago

ETF Watch: Bullish on SPY & GLD, Bearish USO

The Bayesian Probability (BP) support cluster around 290 mentioned in yesterday’s daily thoughts have thus far buoyed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
by Luke Miller - 3 weeks ago

Bayesian Signals Return to Long for U.S. Indices

On September 7, our Bayesian timing signals (BTS) for the U.S. indices went back to long.  The signals had gone to neutral a week ago when there existed an imminent threat of a downdraft of 3% or more.  However, other than the QQQs dropping over 3%, the SPY and IWM only pulled back 1% and the immediate threat seemed to have subsided for now.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

ETF Watch: SPY Still On Path to 290's

In general terms, the path to the 290s in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) is still on the table -- the real question is how deep of a correction will be seen in the short term?  
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

ETF Watch: On the Sidelines in SPY

Our Bayesian Timing System (BTS) is on the sidelines in trading the U.S. equity indices as bears and bulls battle it out. Plus, our outlook on USO, GLD, GDX, UNG and more.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

ETF Watch: Two Scenarios in Play for SPY and GLD

Two scenarios are explored for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as well as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) in this analysis of a number of ETFs, including USO, UNG, XLF, DBA and more.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

ETF Watch: Grind Higher Continues in U.S. Indices

The boring grind higher in the U.S. indices continues, and our Bayesian timing system (BTS) still expects for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to see the mid- to upper-280's. We also review the USO, GLD, UNG and other ETFs.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

ETF Watch:  SPY Basing, Oil Topping

Our Bayesian timing analysis this week covers the SPY (basing), USO (topping), metals (bullish potential), UNG (higher targets still expected), DBA, XLF, EEM, UUP, XME & SMH.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago