About Luke Miller

Luke Miller Luke Miller, host of our Bayesian Analysis service and Bayesian Signal Alerts premium add-on, provides Bayesian Timing analysis on a range of markets, including the equity indices, energy and metals, plus swing trade signals in ETFs tracking these markets.

An Associate Professor of Economics & Business at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, Luke has actively traded the Bayesian timing system since 2007. The strategy trades ETFs long and short for an average hold time of several days to several months.

Luke's Bayesian timing research, which analyzes options pricing to determine market direction and provide more reliable market timing than traditional cycles analysis, has been presented all over the world. It most recently won Best Presentation Award at the 18th International Conference on Business & Finance in Paris in 2016.

In 2003, Luke earned the Gilbreth Memorial Fellowship (top PhD student in the nation) and has since published over one dozen peer reviewed journal articles and a book in his area of expertise. He also provides consulting services to some of the world’s largest firms, including Morningstar, Amazon, UPS, Verizon, and Oracle.

About Luke's Bayesian Services:

The Bayesian Analysis service provides Bayesian timing analysis applied to Avi Gilburt's charts on SPX, GDX, USO & DXY, based on Luke's proprietary timing model. Luke also offers a premium add-on Bayesian Signal Alerts service, which provides analysis on additional ETFs plus trade signal alerts.

Luke's services are premium add-ons for members of our Avi’s Market Alerts flagship service.

Story Archive

Eyeing SPY Bottoming Action

Our Bayesian Timing System is keenly watching this bottoming action, as an ability for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to base above 210 could very well be "the bottom.
by Luke Miller - 2 weeks ago

Tradable Shot at SPY 300

We are at an important bottoming region in the 270s on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and the Bayesian Timing System has determined this risk-return set up is worth it.
by Luke Miller - 3 weeks ago

Eyeing SPY Bottom Above 300

If the SDPR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) breaks 295-300, then the probability of a bear market beginning now has increased, and bounces should start to resemble “bear market rallies.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

SPY At Top End of Trading Range

The Bayesian Timing System (BTS) still indicates we are in a trading range between the 310s and 330s on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) for several more weeks, and we presently find ourselves near the top end of this range now.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Weak Internals to SPY Bounce

As the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has bounced to the highest resistance band near 332, the probabilities have continued to indicate this bounce has weak internals and a trip back down to 315-320 continues to be the most likely outcome over the next 1-2 weeks.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Bayesian Signals Flip To Long in SPY

Keeping an open mind to the dynamic, non-linear nature of markets is one of the specialties of the Bayesian Timing System (BTS), and near the low of the day on January 14, the signals in SPY flipped to long.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Bayesian Update on SPY, GDX & USO

With GDX crashing directly into Bayesian support in the low 28s, the BTS is attempting a long stab.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Locking In Profits, Re-Assessing Path

On December 17, the signals changed to neutral, as Path 2 discussed below witnessed a quick rate-of-change at the micro level.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

Leaning Bullish After Consolidation Completes

With the market barely moving, the Bayesian Timing Signal (BTS) is presently neutral after locking in profits last week, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) dances between 308-314.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

SPY At Important Bayesian Resistance Region

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues its attack on the resistance zone of 308-311s, and as of Nov 15 SPY hit the upper end of that range.
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago