About Luke Miller

Luke Miller Luke Miller, host of our Bayesian Analysis service and Bayesian Signal Alerts premium add-on, provides Bayesian Timing analysis on a range of markets, including the equity indices, energy and metals, plus swing trade signals in ETFs tracking these markets.

An Associate Professor of Economics & Business at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, Luke has actively traded the Bayesian timing system since 2007. The strategy trades ETFs long and short for an average hold time of several days to several months.

Luke's Bayesian timing research, which analyzes options pricing to determine market direction and provide more reliable market timing than traditional cycles analysis, has been presented all over the world. It most recently won Best Presentation Award at the 18th International Conference on Business & Finance in Paris in 2016.

In 2003, Luke earned the Gilbreth Memorial Fellowship (top PhD student in the nation) and has since published over one dozen peer reviewed journal articles and a book in his area of expertise. He also provides consulting services to some of the world’s largest firms, including Morningstar, Amazon, UPS, Verizon, and Oracle.

About Luke's Bayesian Services:

The Bayesian Analysis service provides Bayesian timing analysis applied to Avi Gilburt's charts on SPX, GDX, USO & DXY, based on Luke's proprietary timing model. Luke also offers a premium add-on Bayesian Signal Alerts service, which provides analysis on additional ETFs plus trade signal alerts.

Luke's services are premium add-ons for members of our Avi’s Market Alerts flagship service.

Story Archive

Bayesian Probabilities 2 to 1 In Favor Of Continued Strength

After locking in profits on our shorts last week and cumulative gains of 8% this week on our long positions, the Bayesian Timing System (BTS) wasted no time getting back in the game with another long trigger into the selloff in the morning on May 27.
by Luke Miller - 5 days ago

Bayes Signals Remain Short

Will we get a sell-off into the last week of May for that other vibration window alignment relative low?   Time will tell, but the Bayesian signals remain short.
by Luke Miller - 2 weeks ago

Continuing To Lean Bearish on SPY

With SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in a vibration window and still struggling to get thru 286-289 resistance, our Bayesian Probabilities (BP) continue to lean bearish.
by Luke Miller - 3 weeks ago

Bayesian Probabilities Lean Bearish

Bearish Bayesian probabilities (BPs) are still stronger than bullish ones, with a 72% probability the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues to stall in the 290s and begins a descent back to at least the low 270s.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Squeezed Between Two Zones

Bayesian probabilities call for a grind higher back to near 278-282 in SPY, which then sets up a swift move lower to 270 or even the low 260s.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Highest-Probability Path (Higher) Winning Out Again

The highest probability path does appear to be winning out again, and has led to one of those perfect trading weeks = boring and very profitable.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Eyeing SPY Bottoming Action

Our Bayesian Timing System is keenly watching this bottoming action, as an ability for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to base above 210 could very well be "the bottom.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Tradable Shot at SPY 300

We are at an important bottoming region in the 270s on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and the Bayesian Timing System has determined this risk-return set up is worth it.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Eyeing SPY Bottom Above 300

If the SDPR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) breaks 295-300, then the probability of a bear market beginning now has increased, and bounces should start to resemble “bear market rallies.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

SPY At Top End of Trading Range

The Bayesian Timing System (BTS) still indicates we are in a trading range between the 310s and 330s on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) for several more weeks, and we presently find ourselves near the top end of this range now.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago