About Luke Miller

Luke Miller Luke Miller, host of our Bayesian Analysis service and Bayesian Signal Alerts premium add-on, provides Bayesian Timing analysis on a range of markets, including the equity indices, energy and metals, plus swing trade signals in ETFs tracking these markets.

An Associate Professor of Economics & Business at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, Luke has actively traded the Bayesian timing system since 2007. The strategy trades ETFs long and short for an average hold time of several days to several months.

Luke's Bayesian timing research, which analyzes options pricing to determine market direction and provide more reliable market timing than traditional cycles analysis. has been presented all over the world. It most recently won Best Presentation Award at the 18th International Conference on Business & Finance in Paris in 2016.

In 2003, Luke earned the Gilbreth Memorial Fellowship (top PhD student in the nation) and has since published over one dozen peer reviewed journal articles and a book in his area of expertise.

About Luke's Bayesian Services:

The Bayesian Timing Signals service provides market timing analysis on a range of markets, including the equity indices, energy and metals, plus Swing Trade Signals in ETFs tracking these markets. The signals, with a time horizon of several days to several months, are tracked on a portfolio page.

The service also includes Luke's Daily Thoughts, posted prior to market open, providing an overview and look ahead on the covered markets.

The BTS Leveraged ETF Trading service focuses on 1-3x ETFs for varying asset classes in a proprietary 5-bucket system. It issues trade alerts based on the proprietary Bayesian signal focusing on opportunistic profits and disciplined risk management.

Luke's services are premium add-ons for members of our Avi’s Market Alerts flagship service, and available at a discount when added together.

Story Archive

Neutral on S&P 500 and Metals, Next Several Weeks Key

The next several weeks has the potential to dictate the next 6-12 months.  A corrective retrace into mid-June that stays below 290-293 in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) supports a conditional probability of a sharp drop through the summer.  Above 290-293, and all-time high odds in the 300s increase quickly.
by Luke Miller - 1 week ago

Bayesian Path Is Lower in SPY

The Bayesian Timing System (BTS) still believes the path lower will begin or has already begun in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY).
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Looking for Path Lower to Still Begin in April

Our Bayesian Timing System still believes the path lower for U.S. indices will begin in April. Plus, analysis on gold (GLD), miners (GLD), oil (USO) and the dollar (UUP).
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Eyeing Path Lower in April

Our Bayesian Timing System (BTS) still believes the path lower for the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) will begin in April and most likely a top is seen before the end of next week
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

SPY Looking Lower

Examining the Bayesian probability paths, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has a 68% probability of a reaction lower off the 282-284 target range reached on Mar 19.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

Primary Multi-Week View Bearish for U.S. Indices

Getting below 278 on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a closing basis is the most important first step to topping, and below 273 should see the 260s.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

Bayesian Probability Points to Bullish Path for SPY

With a Bayesian probability (BP) of 59%, this path is bullish, and indicates the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has bottomed and then prices generally begin a bullish run higher into and throughout 2019 leading to all-time highs.
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago

ETF Watch: What Our Bayesian Signals Indicate for GLD, USO, UNG, XBI, XLF and more.

Here is our Bayesian Timing System (BTS) analysis on the precious metals ETFs (GDX, GLD, SLV) as well as the dollar (UUP), oil (USO), natural gas (UNG), biotech (XBI), VIX (VXXB), financials (XLF), and Treasuries (TLT).
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago

Bayesian Probabilities Point to a Micro Turn Lower

With a Bayesian Probability (BP) of 46%, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) begins a more immediate breakdown of the Jan 23 low and falls to 255 and then to the mid-240s.
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago

Bullish Run for SPY Most Probable Path in 2019

In the first path, with a Bayesian probability (BP) percentage of 59%, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has bottomed or has one more low into the 225-230 target range and then prices generally begin a bullish run higher into and throughout 2019 leading to all-time highs.
by Luke Miller - 5 months ago