About Luke Miller

Luke Miller Luke Miller, host of our Bayesian Analysis service and Bayesian Signal Alerts premium add-on, provides Bayesian Timing analysis on a range of markets, including the equity indices, energy and metals, plus swing trade signals in ETFs tracking these markets.

An Associate Professor of Economics & Business at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, Luke has actively traded the Bayesian timing system since 2007. The strategy trades ETFs long and short for an average hold time of several days to several months.

Luke's Bayesian timing research, which analyzes options pricing to determine market direction and provide more reliable market timing than traditional cycles analysis, has been presented all over the world. It most recently won Best Presentation Award at the 18th International Conference on Business & Finance in Paris in 2016.

In 2003, Luke earned the Gilbreth Memorial Fellowship (top PhD student in the nation) and has since published over one dozen peer reviewed journal articles and a book in his area of expertise. He also provides consulting services to some of the world’s largest firms, including Morningstar, Amazon, UPS, Verizon, and Oracle.

About Luke's Bayesian Services:

The Bayesian Analysis service provides Bayesian timing analysis applied to Avi Gilburt's charts on SPX, GDX, USO & DXY, based on Luke's proprietary timing model. Luke also offers a premium add-on Bayesian Signal Alerts service, which provides analysis on additional ETFs plus trade signal alerts.

Luke's services are premium add-ons for members of our Avi’s Market Alerts flagship service.

Story Archive

SPY Looking Higher, Metals Bears Have Window

There's a 62% Bayesian probability that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) generally holds above 316-320 and attempts another run higher into the 330s.
by Luke Miller - 1 week ago

Riding The Rally, Awaiting Bayesian Signal Change

We continue to sit on a bunch of stock-based ETF profits across numerous sector ETFs with the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) still chipping away at the resistance band of 322-326s.
by Luke Miller - 2 weeks ago

Eyeing Low 320's In SPY

The Bayesian Timing System is back to being a bull for a swing trade and sees targets in the low 320s for starters in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) before a $30+ pullback.
by Luke Miller - 4 weeks ago

Upside Appears Limited

The odds continue to support the bears having their day/week/months, and upside appears limited from here.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Bayesian Probabilities 2 to 1 In Favor Of Continued Strength

After locking in profits on our shorts last week and cumulative gains of 8% this week on our long positions, the Bayesian Timing System (BTS) wasted no time getting back in the game with another long trigger into the selloff in the morning on May 27.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Bayes Signals Remain Short

Will we get a sell-off into the last week of May for that other vibration window alignment relative low?   Time will tell, but the Bayesian signals remain short.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Continuing To Lean Bearish on SPY

With SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in a vibration window and still struggling to get thru 286-289 resistance, our Bayesian Probabilities (BP) continue to lean bearish.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Bayesian Probabilities Lean Bearish

Bearish Bayesian probabilities (BPs) are still stronger than bullish ones, with a 72% probability the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues to stall in the 290s and begins a descent back to at least the low 270s.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

Squeezed Between Two Zones

Bayesian probabilities call for a grind higher back to near 278-282 in SPY, which then sets up a swift move lower to 270 or even the low 260s.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

Highest-Probability Path (Higher) Winning Out Again

The highest probability path does appear to be winning out again, and has led to one of those perfect trading weeks = boring and very profitable.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago