About Luke Miller

Luke Miller Luke Miller, host of our Bayesian Analysis service and Bayesian Signal Alerts premium add-on, provides Bayesian Timing analysis on a range of markets, including the equity indices, energy and metals, plus swing trade signals in ETFs tracking these markets.

An Associate Professor of Economics & Business at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, Luke has actively traded the Bayesian timing system since 2007. The strategy trades ETFs long and short for an average hold time of several days to several months.

Luke's Bayesian timing research, which analyzes options pricing to determine market direction and provide more reliable market timing than traditional cycles analysis. has been presented all over the world. It most recently won Best Presentation Award at the 18th International Conference on Business & Finance in Paris in 2016.

In 2003, Luke earned the Gilbreth Memorial Fellowship (top PhD student in the nation) and has since published over one dozen peer reviewed journal articles and a book in his area of expertise. He also provides consulting services to some of the world’s largest firms, including Morningstar, Amazon, UPS, Verizon, and Oracle.

About Luke's Bayesian Services:

The Bayesian Analysis service provides Bayesian timing analysis applied to Avi Gilburt's charts on SPX, GDX, USO & DXY, based on Luke's proprietary timing model. Luke also offers a premium add-on Bayesian Signal Alerts service, which provides analysis on additional ETFs plus trade signal alerts.

Luke's services are premium add-ons for members of our Avi’s Market Alerts flagship service.

Story Archive

Bayesian Signals Flip To Long in SPY

Keeping an open mind to the dynamic, non-linear nature of markets is one of the specialties of the Bayesian Timing System (BTS), and near the low of the day on January 14, the signals in SPY flipped to long.
by Luke Miller - 1 week ago

Bayesian Update on SPY, GDX & USO

With GDX crashing directly into Bayesian support in the low 28s, the BTS is attempting a long stab.
by Luke Miller - 2 weeks ago

Locking In Profits, Re-Assessing Path

On December 17, the signals changed to neutral, as Path 2 discussed below witnessed a quick rate-of-change at the micro level.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Leaning Bullish After Consolidation Completes

With the market barely moving, the Bayesian Timing Signal (BTS) is presently neutral after locking in profits last week, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) dances between 308-314.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

SPY At Important Bayesian Resistance Region

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues its attack on the resistance zone of 308-311s, and as of Nov 15 SPY hit the upper end of that range.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Ceiling to Bullish Leg Higher Appears Imminent

Our Bayesian Timing System sees a pullback to 300-303 at minimum in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) before any longer-term bullish leg can develop.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Bulls With Slight Edge, But...

Yes, the bulls have the slight edge in probability terms at the paths laid out above, but the swing short trade still makes sense as the Bayesian probability of seeing the 292-296 range in the SPY before a sustainable move higher is 65%.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

Leaning Bearish Since October 4 Short Signal

On October 4, our Bayesian Timing System (BTS) gave us signals to short the SPY, QQQ and IWM.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

Long And Looking For Clues

Our Bayesian Timing System shows a 64% probability that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) bottoms above 282-ish and begins an aggressive path higher to all-time highs.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

Awaiting Next Quality Set-Up

Our Bayesian Signal Alerts service cashed out of its longs in indices at nearly exactly these levels last week.
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago