About Luke Miller

Luke Miller Luke Miller, host of our Bayesian Analysis service and Bayesian Signal Alerts premium add-on, provides Bayesian Timing analysis on a range of markets, including the equity indices, energy and metals, plus swing trade signals in ETFs tracking these markets.

An Associate Professor of Economics & Business at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, Luke has actively traded the Bayesian timing system since 2007. The strategy trades ETFs long and short for an average hold time of several days to several months.

Luke's Bayesian timing research, which analyzes options pricing to determine market direction and provide more reliable market timing than traditional cycles analysis. has been presented all over the world. It most recently won Best Presentation Award at the 18th International Conference on Business & Finance in Paris in 2016.

In 2003, Luke earned the Gilbreth Memorial Fellowship (top PhD student in the nation) and has since published over one dozen peer reviewed journal articles and a book in his area of expertise. He also provides consulting services to some of the world’s largest firms, including Morningstar, Amazon, UPS, Verizon, and Oracle.

About Luke's Bayesian Services:

The Bayesian Analysis service provides Bayesian timing analysis applied to Avi Gilburt's charts on SPX, GDX, USO & DXY, based on Luke's proprietary timing model. Luke also offers a premium add-on Bayesian Signal Alerts service, which provides analysis on additional ETFs plus trade signal alerts.

Luke's services are premium add-ons for members of our Avi’s Market Alerts flagship service.

Story Archive

SPY At Important Bayesian Resistance Region

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continues its attack on the resistance zone of 308-311s, and as of Nov 15 SPY hit the upper end of that range.
by Luke Miller - 2 weeks ago

Ceiling to Bullish Leg Higher Appears Imminent

Our Bayesian Timing System sees a pullback to 300-303 at minimum in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) before any longer-term bullish leg can develop.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Bulls With Slight Edge, But...

Yes, the bulls have the slight edge in probability terms at the paths laid out above, but the swing short trade still makes sense as the Bayesian probability of seeing the 292-296 range in the SPY before a sustainable move higher is 65%.
by Luke Miller - 1 month ago

Leaning Bearish Since October 4 Short Signal

On October 4, our Bayesian Timing System (BTS) gave us signals to short the SPY, QQQ and IWM.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Long And Looking For Clues

Our Bayesian Timing System shows a 64% probability that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) bottoms above 282-ish and begins an aggressive path higher to all-time highs.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Awaiting Next Quality Set-Up

Our Bayesian Signal Alerts service cashed out of its longs in indices at nearly exactly these levels last week.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

SPY Probabilities Pointing to ATHs

The important 292-296 resistance band in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was overwhelmed last week and thus opens up the probability (about 70%) of the SPY moving to all-time highs.
by Luke Miller - 2 months ago

Odds of Slightly Better Than A Coin Toss Support Long Positions

By slightly more than a coin toss, odds continue to support long positions in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), even if the Bayesian signal has remained Neutral.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

Eye SPY Long

With the SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY) spiking down to the pivotal 184-185 level on August 14, the Bayesian Timing System (BTS) determined the risk-reward set up was there for a long signal.
by Luke Miller - 3 months ago

Low 290s Important Decision Zone for SPY

If Bayes could wish upon a star, then the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) loses its lunch over the next few trading days into a vibration window low between 8/2 and 8/5 that targets the low 290s.
by Luke Miller - 4 months ago