Many prospective subscribers ask about Avi's trading performance. Avi doesn't give actual buy/sell recommendations, but his analysis provides for you the direction that the S&P 500, oil, gold/silver, USD and VXX are headed, along with directional calls that subscribers use to trade these markets long and short. The key areas of the site to watch for market directional instructions are Avi's Wave Alerts (5-10 intraday updates), his Market Updates (nightly analysis), and his Weekend Analysis. Below are some of his recent calls:
Called the S&P 500 Gyrations in Q1 2015: Avi called for a top in the S&P 500 in the last week of December ("S&P500: Pullback Should Begin Soon") at around 2100. The index topped at 2093.
He also called for the market bottom at the end of January ahead of the 100+ point rally.
In his Weekend S&P 500 report on February 28, titled, "March Pullback Will Set Up April Surge," Avi noted "we are now approaching the first target we set for ourselves for wave i of 3" near 2119-2135. The market topped on March 2 at 2117.
Called Gold's Low in Oct-Nov 2014: Coming into 2014, Avi was one for the few analysts who were calling for lower lows in the GLD to complete the 3+ year correction in metals. While he called the rally and top in March, and again in July, he continued to hold this intermediate-term outlook. In fact, on Oct 25, Avi wrote that the GLD was "setting up for the heart of a 3rd wave down to take out the 2013 lows." Five days later the GLD gapped down 3%, breaking the 113 low.
Called the S&P 500 Retracement & Subsequent Rally in August 2014: In Avi's weekend analysis from Sunday July 27, he noted that "the market currently has a set up to take us down as far as the low 1900's within the next two weeks." Specifically, he noted a target of 1913ES, and the market bottomed at 1910 that same week. Avi wrote, "We have almost completed a 5 wave structure off [the 1986ES] high, which, ideally, should provide us with lower lows on Sunday night, and possibly into Monday morning to complete 5 waves off the high."
The market, as expected, provided the lower low on Monday morning.
He went on to say, "If this should occur, then we should see a corrective retrace back up on Monday and possibly into Tuesday before we continue down later in the week."
Which was exactly what we saw.
Avi noted that the main levels of support to watch for downside confirmation are 1965ES and 1958ES. "Once we are able to strongly break those two levels, and assuming we are structured in an impulsive pattern to the downside, the expectation is that a minimum target of 1933ES will be seen, with the potential to drop as low as the 1913ES region." He added, "Unfortunately, it may take us until Wednesday to know if we will break this region of support."
The break came that Wednesday night.
Finally, Avi noted in that analysis: "This current decline is likely still setting us up for a rally over the 2000 region."
The market went on rally to near 1960 as of Friday, Aug 15.
Called the top in gold in August 2013, the bottom in December 2013, and top again in March 2014: Avi called the top in the GLD at 138.50 on Seeking Alpha on August 26, 2013. which turned out to be just $1 off its intraday high on Aug 27. He also called gold's bottom in December 2013, suggesting traders exit their shorts at 115 and start looking long. See article explaining the call.
Plus, on March 9, 2014, again on Seeking Alpha, he called for the GLD to top at 133.50 before it's next sell-off -- and it went on to top at 133.69 five days later!
Called the July 2013 Top and Aug 2013 Bottom: On July 29, Avi noted that "since wave i was approximately 38 points, this provides a target for wave v in the 1708 region."
The Emini S&P 500 topped the same week at 1705, just 3 points shy of his target.
On August 19, Avi wrote: "As long as the 1664-1670ES region holds as resistance, I would expect at least another 25-point decline from that region, and potentially as much as a 40-point decline from that region."
The market got up to 1665 and plunged exactly 40 points the following week.
Called the May 2013 Top and June 2013 Bottom: OnMarketWatch on May 6, Avi called for "extensions [that] take us up to the higher Fibonacci extension around 1672."
The market topped intraday on May 21 at 1674.
On June 22, Avi wrote in his Weekend Update for members: "The ideal target for this bottom would be the 1560ES region, which is where yellow (a) would be equal to yellow (c )."
The market bottomed two days later intraday on June 24 at 1560.33.
Called Jan-Apr 2013 Equity Rally: Back in early January 2013, on MarketWatch (Jan 14 article), Avi Gilburt noted that "we will likely have a bullish pattern to contend with through the spring as we head to our long-time target region between 1575-1630."
Called AAPL Top September 2012 and Subsequent Bottom, Retracement, and Correction: On August 27, Avi Gilburt published an article on MarketWatch calling for a top in AAPL between 693 and 722. Moreover, he wrote: "After AAPL hits this upper target range, I think we will see a sizable correction, which will likely take AAPL back into the 500 region." A few weeks later, AAPL topped at 705, and in mid-November bottomed at 505.
Once that bottom target was reached, Avi noted in his ElliottWaveTrader Trading Room that "truth be told, I would love to see it retrace as high as the $580's." Many snickered or just didn't believe it, but on November 26 AAPL hit the top region of Avi's target!
On November 27, Avi wrote on MarketWatch that AAPL "will likely drop back down toward at least the $553-$565 region," and the stock proceeded to decline through that region to a low of 538 one week later.
17 ES Points to the Downside, with Low Nailed by 1/4 Point: In his weekend analysis on Sunday October 7, Avi told subscribers that it was likely "the ES will not hold the 1439ES level, and will target the 1422ES level." On Friday October 12, the ES (emini S&P 500) closed at 1421.75. See the Oct 8 article on MarketWatch.
ES Targets Nailed to the Penny (+14 points): At 7:27 am on Thursday August 17 Avi posted a chart in our Trading Room with a target box anticipating a move down into the 1399.88 to 1401.75 area, followed by a projected wave 3 target of 1415.72. The market did exactly that -- moving down to 1400.75, where it bottomed, and then reaching 1415 right on the money later in the session! Here is a view of the initial chart followed by the closing chart that illustrates move.
100+ ES Points in July: In mid-July, Avi warned to look for a top between the 18th and 20th of the month. When the Emini S&P 500 (ES) topped on Thursday July 19, Avi suggested selling long positions in the 1375 region with an initial downside target of 1333, which he revised down to 1315-1322. Moreover, he noted the market would then move up to the 1400ES region when support was found within that region. The index hit a low of 1321.25 on Wednesday, and then rallied over 60 points by the close on Friday. See Avi's Market Update from Thursday July 26 for more detail.
Two 20+ Point Trades in June: In his June 11 article on MarketWatch, Avi called the pullback in Apple (AAPL) to the 565 range, which it hit exactly the very next day (Tuesday June 12). This produced a 20-point short trade in 24 hours for those who followed the call.
The very next week, Avi again produced a 20-point trade, this time in the e-Mini S&P 500. On Monday June 18, Avi posted a Wave Alert for subscribers to his service indicating a buy in the E-mini S&P 500 at 1327 with a target of 1360. At the close on Tuesday June 19, the index was 20 points higher, having actually touched just under his 1360 target intraday.
Rally in USO in Early Feb 2012: In his weekend report on our site on Sat January 28, Avi wrote, "This past week, USO declined to the top of our target zone of a wave 2 pullback. In fact, it found support just cents above our target region, and then had a 5 wave move up off that low. Currently, the most likely count provides that it is in a wave (2) consolidation within wave 3 of this blue c-wave. While it could have more decline still to come, any move below the prior low in the 37.50 region would mean that this wave 2 was not complete, and may still target the 36.85 region. However, as long as it maintains support above this past week's low, then it will begin a 3rd wave within a 3rd wave with the next targets exceeding 40.00 on the USO."
The USO hit a low of 36.68 intraday on February 2, and proceeded to exceed 42 by February 21.
Rally in Silver & Gold in Late 2011/Early 2012: In "Gold At $2000: Coming Sooner Than You Think," published in Seeking Alpha on December 27, 2011, Avi wrote: "At this time, the most likely levels of support for GLD is the 152 region and the 144/145 region. When gold does find support at one of the cited levels, the rally which will ensue will be quite strong and sharp to the upside, even potentially parabolic, in fact. It will even surprise many investors as to how fast and strong gold will move up towards the $2,000 level from these regions." The GLD bottomed at 148.07 two days later, and rallied to as high at $173.93 on February 28.
In "Silver Over $50 Coming Sooner Than You Think," published on Seeking Alpha on January 3, 2012, Avi wrote: "In my opinion, silver is about to complete its corrective decline and should maintain support within the $26 region in the futures. I believe that the speed with which we will run up to the $50 region will surprise even the staunchest of precious metal investors." Silver bottomed two days later and went on to rise by more than 30% in two months.
Top for Silver in February: On February 26, 2012, Avi published another article, which was based upon the same warning given to subscribers in the Weekend Analysis, entitled "Silver Update: One More Pullback." Avi noted that he believed that silver would "top out over the next few days," and a correction would ensue which could potentially take silver "as deep as the prior sited target region within the $30-$32 region." In the site's Trading Room on February 28, 2012, Avi issued an alert calling for those holding short term positions in gold and silver to sell those positions, and for aggressive traders to consider shorting the metals. On February 29, 2011, silver dropped from 37.57 in the futures to 33.70 and GLD dropped from 173.93 to 164.01in one day. Some subscribers that shorted with options made over 500% in one day.
4th Quarter 2011 Whipsaws in the S&P 500: In "Strap Yourself In - Imminent Whipsaw Into Year End," published on Seeking Alpha on Nov 7, 2011, Avi wrote: "Based upon my technical work, I am seeing us topping this week and most probably by the 10th of November. Depending upon how the market reacts on Monday, the top at that time will either be within the S&P 1265-1275 range (my primary target), or it will be as high as the 1305-1315 range." The S&P 500 topped at 1275 on November 8.
Avi added: "However, once we reach the 10th of November, be prepared for a decline that will take us down into the Thanksgiving holiday, with targets as low as S&P 1180. Yes, we are predicting an estimate 100 point drop within a period of 2 trading weeks." The S&P 500 indeed fell more than 100 points, bottoming at 1158.67 on November 25 (the day after Thanksgiving). Avi went on to predict in the article, "Thereafter, I am seeing a 100+ point rally that can potentially take us into year-end (maybe a little longer), with upside targets as high as 1330-1340 in the S&P 500." The S&P 500 indeed reached the 1330-40 level by late January.
Top in Silver & Gold in August 2011: In "A Different Perspective On A Top For Gold," published on Seeking Alpha on August 22, Avi wrote: "I believe that we are relatively close to a potential top in the gold market . . . I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time." Gold went on to peak the very next day at $1913 and plunge by 10% within several days.
A week later, he followed up with, "Should You Buy Silver Now? Probably Not," noting that "Has silver 'completed' its correction and beginning a bull run? The answer is, most probably, 'no.'" In the article, Avi even noted that he was short silver at the time. Silver went on to plunge by one-fourth its value in a month.
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