Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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One more low still on the table Thu Mar 23rd 2017

Despite the extension higher that we saw this morning, a move that was recognized early on and warned about via email alert, the important 2355.75 ES resistance cited held, and price has since turned back down again. Therefore, as long as we are below today's high, then one more low as wave 5 of c will continue to be expected, still targeting ~2325 ES.

4th wave consolidation Wed Mar 22nd 2017

The market did exactly what it was supposed to today, which was chop around in a 4th wave consolidation. Price has come close to reaching our optimal 2350 ES target for wave 4 of c, but otherwise nothing indicating that it has completed and the 5th wave down has started yet. In fact, I would actually prefer to see this consolidation eat up even more time and stretch out overnight and into tomorrow, but a break below our afternoon low at 2336.

Downside follow through Tue Mar 21st 2017

Despite the brief fake out this morning, once price broke below yesterday's low it confirmed our 3rd wave down in wave c of the blue count, which has already reached standard pinball targets for completion. However, we don't quite have enough of a bounce off today's current low to confirm that the circle wave 4 of c has started, so if another extension lower in circle wave 3 is seen, then 2338.25 - 2333 ES is the next fib support below.

Following path pointing lower Mon Mar 20th 2017

The market followed expectations well today, initially bouncing into the 2374 - 2377 ES target resistance for wave (2) of 3 and then turning down to a new local low in what should be the start of wave (3) of 3. Therefore, as long as price is below today's high, then the expectation will be for further downside follow through to complete wave (3) of 3, with a current target of ~2357.50 ES before getting the next corrective bounce in wave (4) of 3.

Need Turn Down For (c) Wave Thu Mar 16th 2017

While we have certainly come up to the target we had for a (b) wave this week, if this is the appropriate way to count this correction then we will need to see an impulsive turn down in a (c) wave beginning quite soon.  That is how our primary green count is presented on the 60 minute chart.

(b) Wave Target Struck Wed Mar 15th 2017

With today‚Äôs rally, we have struck the bottom of the (b) wave target we set this past weekend in the 2383-2394SPX region. Also, take note that the daily upper Bollinger Band now resides at the top of our resistance region.  So, as long as this region holds as resistance, I am going to expect a decline to the 2335SPX region next to complete the larger green a-wave.

Still Stuck In The Middle Tue Mar 14th 2017

With the break below 2363SPX today, the market invalidated an immediate upside set up to complete a bigger (b) wave structure.  While we may still be able to see that rally this week to complete that (b) wave, trading for it comes with significant added risk, as I have warned many times.  Trying to trade within a 4th wave requires you to be prepared for much whipsaw, as 4th waves are the most variable of all the Elliott structures.

b-Wave Action Mon Mar 13th 2017

My primary perspective has SPX within a (b) wave rally, with an ideal target region between 2383-94SPX.  As long as we hold the last lows as 2363SPX, I am still going to expect that rally to take hold. Once we get up into that region, it can get a bit more tricky in the short term.  Again, our primary expectation is that this will top out a (b) wave in a bigger a-wave of wave (iv), and point us down later this week towards the 2335SPX region.

Green a-Wave Pushing Lower Thu Mar 9th 2017

With the market dropping a bit more today, the a-wave down has now struck the middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart.  Moreover, the bearishness that has developed from this small drop from the all-time highs may suggest that the a-wave may not get all the way down to our ideal target at the .236 retracement of wave (iii) in the 2335SPX region.  So, as I have noted many times, 4th waves present us with major whipsaw points, and usually chew up those trying to trade them.

Still Within The Throes Of An a-Wave Wed Mar 8th 2017

As I have been warning, the structure within a 4th wave, especially during the a-wave and b-wave of the 4th wave is often quite amorphous.  That seems to be that which we have been dealing over the last several days.  As you can see on the 5 minute ES chart, I have a proposed way this could develop, with us completing the b-wave of a (b) wave of the bigger green a-wave of (iv).  This could provide us with a rally into tomorrow, as long as we do not break below the overnight low.