Market Update

Avi Gilburt

Each evening Avi Gilburt provides in-depth Elliott Wave analysis on the emini S&P 500, with occasional coverage of the U.S. Dollar, VIX, oil (USO), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's latest market update, along with his intraday "wave alerts" and live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Only 3 Waves Down So Far Mon Jul 27th 2015

With the market continuing to push lower today, we still do not have a solid 4th wave in place, which means we only have 3 waves down.  That 3 waves down can still be the b-wave of a 5th wave to a higher high, as we discussed over the weekend. For us to complete all 5 waves down, we still need a rally in a c-wave (assuming the morning low was the bottom of 3), which would provide us with a 4th wave flat.  Thereafter, we would need a 5th wave to a lower low to confirm 5 waves off the high.

We Continue To See Red Thu Jul 23rd 2015

As the market has continued lower, we are now going to see our first test of the various patterns.  We are now in the region for the blue wave 4, which is not high on my probability list.  Nonetheless, it is a reasonable count which I will be watching.  Should we see an impulsive move coming out of this region in a solid 5 waves, it will have to make me consider it much stronger.

We Are Finally Seeing Red Wed Jul 22nd 2015

The market surely pushed the move off the early July lows further than expected, and even took a little longer than expected to top.  But, for the last two days, we have been seeing some red in the market, and we are getting closer to determining which pattern is in play. At this point, I feel like a broken record, as I really do not have much more to offer than I did yesterday.  We still have an impulsive potential downside set up, as long as we maintain below the 2124SPX region (which is the .

At A Minor Inflection Point Wed Jul 22nd 2015

Over the weekend, I noted to our members that I believed we had lower to go in the metals and miners as there was nothing in the charts that are suggesting otherwise.  While the GLD has now dropped to our next target in the 105 region, the GDX has far exceeded our next downside target in sizeable extensions in this wave iii of 3. At this point in time, I am on the lookout for a wave iv of 3 bounce in both these charts.

Do We Have 5 Down? Tue Jul 21st 2015

This morning, the market turned down right below the all-time highs, and we seem to have developed an arguable 5 wave structure off the high. If you remember from our larger degree analysis, one of the potentials from this region is a larger degree (c) wave (red count) to take us down to a 19-handle.  And, if the market did not provide us with an arguable 5 wave structure off the high, then this potential would have been eliminated.   But, with today’s action, it remains in the running.

Local top approaching Thu Jul 16th 2015

It's been a wild ride this week, with equity markets tacking on even more gains today, carrying the SPX over the .764 retrace off the decline off the April high, and price now approaching the June high. This price action is truly a change in character compared to last week, when it seemed like bulls were dead in the water. While our expectation going into this week was for a sizable rally, the actual result has definitely exceeded initial expectations.

Near-term upside still possible, but ground is getting shaky Thu Jul 9th 2015

Despite the deep retrace after this morning's gap up, so far the pullback has only produced a micro 3 waves down into the .764 retrace. Therefore, I believe that there is still a reasonable probability of seeing more near-term upside in the ending diagonal c-wave scenario, in which today was waves (i) and (ii) of the ED. Under that scenario, the 2089 - 2100 SPX target region above remains achievable before wave B in the red count completes.

Selling pressure continues Wed Jul 8th 2015

The market threw us a curve ball today by reversing all of yesterday's gains, despite exhibiting all of the typical characteristics of an interim bottom at yesterday's close that have led to more sustained bounces over the past few years.

Interim bottom should be in place Tue Jul 7th 2015

Overall the SPX has been cooperative with expectations after my last chart posted a week ago, despite reaching a little higher than initially anticipated for the wave (iv) of c. My ideal target for wave (v) then was 2044 SPX, where there was a nice confluence of fib targets, and today that is where we put in a bottom. Based on the strength and size of this afternoon bounce since, I believe that we have seen an interim low as either wave 4 in the bullish blue count, or wave A in the bearish red count.

Closer to confirming a local bottom. Mon Jul 6th 2015

The price action today in the ES went a long way to confirming a local bottom to our abc move off the May highs. The ES pushed for a 5th up from the Sunday night post-Greece Shenanigans low and then retraced a nice corrective retrace of 50% before turning up sharply and continuing the move after the close. The SPX still has a bit of a murky picture but the low this morning can count as our truncated (v) of (c) and whiel the abc retrace in SPX was much deeper it did hold the low too and turned up nicely.