Market Update

Avi Gilburt

Each evening Avi Gilburt provides in-depth Elliott Wave analysis on the emini S&P 500, with occasional coverage of the U.S. Dollar, VIX, oil (USO), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's latest market update, along with his intraday "wave alerts" and live member discussion forum, please login.


Bounce assumed corrective until proven otherwise Tue Jun 28th 2016

The SPX continued to bounce today into the upper end of resistance cited for wave (iv) of c under the blue count at 2035 SPX. While we have no indication on the micro yet of a local top in place, if that resistance holds and price starts to head back down impulsively tomorrow we can view it as the start of blue wave (v) of c with 1960 SPX as a potential target. Otherwise, as noted this morning, above 2035 SPX would start to look too big as a 4th wave, and instead would argue for another b-wave.

Bracing for Brexit Vote Thu Jun 23rd 2016

After the initial spike up this morning, the rest of the day was relatively dull for the SPX, as everyone awaits the Brexit vote this evening. With a major catalyst like this poised to bring some volatility back into the market, one ought to have a considerable edge if planning to make any big bets. Unfortunately at this juncture, I don't see that edge, at least in the short-term.

Cooperating so far Wed Jun 22nd 2016

Despite the early strength this morning in the market, the SPX managed to stay below Monday's high, maintaining the red count as operative with price still working on the beginning stages of a c-wave down to 2031 - 1989 SPX from here. The next step toward confirming this path is going to be a sustained break below 2080 SPX, which represents the 1.00 extension down from Monday's high as well as the 50 day SMA. If price can breach that support, it should result in follow through lower from there.

Uneventful day Tue Jun 21st 2016

Fairly uneventful day in the market today, so not a whole lot has changed since the alert sent out this morning. The SPX remained below yesterday's high, so far bouncing in only a corrective 3 waves off yesterday's low. This action keeps the operative count shown in red alive and well still, with price potentially starting a c-wave down from here into 2031 - 1989 SPX to complete either all of wave 2 or just another a-wave of a larger wave 2.

Upside target zone hit but still waiting on confirmation of a top Mon Jun 20th 2016

Today we saw the market move sharply higher hitting the ideal target zone for the wave b that had been presented over the past several days. While it is still possible to see another push higher to complete wave (c) of b should we see a sustained break of the 2084 level this prospect will become less probable and it will become much more likely that we have indeed topped in the wave b.

Not Much Clarity In Today's Action Fri Jun 17th 2016

SPX - This morning I noted that the potential 1-2 (1)-(2) count to the downside was still technically valid but had become less probable due to the retrace through the 2073 level. I also noted that I would need to see a clear 5 wave move down off of yesterday's HOD to consider this count reasonably probable.

Fibs To The Rescue Thu Jun 16th 2016

With the market breaking down further today, it seemed all hope was lost for the bulls.  However, the .236 retracement off the February lows came to the rescue and provided a nice “bottom” for us.  But, my suspicion is that this may only be a temporary bottom.  Yet, if this is the bottom of the a-wave and the b-wave is in progress, it can still last another day or two before we begin the c-wave down towards the 2002SPX region, which is the most common target for an (a) wave of a wave (2).

Corrective Rally Underway Wed Jun 15th 2016

It would seem that we may have completed the a-wave of the bigger (a) wave in wave (2).  As long as we can move through the 2085SPX region, my “ideal” target region is between 2099-2110SPX.  But, as I caution oh so often about corrective action, we have no guarantee that the market will take us up that high.

Continue To Focus On Lower Levels Tue Jun 14th 2016

The market has not provided any meaningful bounces yet.  However, standard operating procedure suggests that the market will provide us a bounce in the not too distant future.  And, as noted last night, it may begin from lower levels, but we will still likely see a bounce. The drop thus far has several ways in which it can be counted, and our analysts have posted several micro count potentials as to how to view this decline.

Investors Need To Remain Nimble, Open-Minded and Cautious Fri Jun 10th 2016

Back in January, as the market was dropping to the lower 1800’s, I was posting thoughts that most on the public forums seemed to view as quite outrageous.  I was suggesting at the time that markets around the world were setting up for a global melt-up.  For those that have followed markets around the world since that time, including many of the commodities and emerging markets, our expectations seem to be supported by price action, despite much public disbelief.