Market Update

Avi Gilburt

Each evening Avi Gilburt provides in-depth Elliott Wave analysis on the emini S&P 500, with occasional coverage of the U.S. Dollar, VIX, oil (USO), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's latest market update, along with his intraday "wave alerts" and live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Micro Count Still Needs To Be Resolved Mon Feb 23rd 2015

Micro Count Still Needs To Be Resolved For the last several weeks I have been harping upon the 2108ES level as a determination point for the market.  We need to see where the market stops over that level to be able to identify the micro count much more clearly. Basically, the problem we now encounter is that the 2108ES region represents the 1.236 extension within a potential 3rd wave up.  That is ordinarily where the wave (iii) of (3) would target.

Micro Count Still Needs To Be Resolved Mon Feb 23rd 2015

For the last several weeks I have been harping upon the 2108ES level as a determination point for the market.  We need to see where the market stops over that level to be able to identify the micro count much more clearly. Basically, the problem we now encounter is that the 2108ES region represents the 1.236 extension within a potential 3rd wave up.  That is ordinarily where the wave (iii) of (3) would target.  And as long as all pullbacks maintain over the .

Market Refuses To Break Out Or Down Thu Feb 19th 2015

For the last week, the market has been meandering within this region between 2080ES and 2100.  But, the more troubling factor is that it has given us several hints at a break out set up, but has not taken advantage of any of them.  That is often a warning.  However, I am unable to look down until at least some level of support is taken out. For now, the market is still holding the 2087/88ES support.

Market Wants To Be A Bull – Just Isn’t Sure How Wed Feb 18th 2015

The market’s inability to break out these last few days leaves it stuck between two wave counts, both pointing higher in the near term. In basic terms, the market has a break out set up in place right now to take us to 2108ES and potentially to 2120ES, which would now be my preferred scenario, which would complete wave (3) of wave I off the lows.

Metals Bottom Today? Wed Feb 18th 2015

Earlier today, I put out an alert that noted that we could be seeing a bottom in the metals quite imminently.  So, far, that call seems to be playing out.  As long as the GLD remains over 115.50, I will be looking up. However, the bigger question still remains as to whether this rally will be a corrective rally – as in a wave ii in silver – or something bigger, such as a (c) wave back up for GLD.

Market Grinding It Up Tue Feb 17th 2015

With the market continuing to maintain support each and every stair step higher, I am still looking towards he 2108ES region for the ideal target to let us know how to appropriately micro-count this region.  Again, ideally, that should be the target for wave (iii) of (3) of I off the wave 2 low.

Can We See Follow-Through? Thu Feb 12th 2015

With the market gapping higher after hours yesterday, it began filling in the playbook for the heart of green wave (iii) higher. However, when it dropped below 2064ES later that evening, it clearly placed doubts in my mind since, in the perfect world, that should not happen.  Ordinarily, it is seen as an invalidation of the standard bullish count.

Oh So Close Wed Feb 11th 2015

This market is now on its second opportunity to provide us with a gap up over resistance.  The main question is if will take that opportunity. Our primary counts are all looking up in this market, and the only question is how we get there.  The most aggressive of all perspectives is that we have a wave (1)(2), (i)(ii), i-ii in place, with the heart of a 3rd wave about to begin.

Still Looking For A Micro Pattern Wed Feb 11th 2015

On the daily GLD chart, we are now just hitting the support box.  Again, the micro wave pattern taking us to this point is not terribly clear. Therefore, it is hard for me to put good short term money to it right now, even though I still think lower lows are still in play.  The potential for a whipsaw is what concerns me in the short term,.  119.,30 is resistance which keeps pressure down as noted this morning in the last Wave Alert.  A break of 115.

Looks Like Corrective Action – But Stay On Your Toes Tue Feb 10th 2015

When we closed yesterday, the market had no imminent upside set up in place, nor did it seem to have a downside structure completed either. But, the imminent upside set up became evident early this morning, as it developed overnight. To further complicate this current region within which we now find ourselves, most of the movement we have seen to the upside today has developed with several 3 wave structures.  To me, that seems to keep the door open for another drop to be seen within the next day or two.