Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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Bigger Consolidation Aligning Across Markets Tue Aug 13th 2019

Not often do you see a similar type of consolidation occur across markets.  Yet, that is what I am seeing at this time.  But, before I go into that discussion, I think it is rather clear that the market has taken the alternative path laid out by Mike in his update yesterday.  The b-wave has not yet completed, and we see to be in the c-wave of that larger structure. As I mentioned over the weekend, corrective action is very difficult since it is so variable.

Odds Of A Top Have Increased Mon Aug 12th 2019

Today the SPX opened down and continue to move lower into the early morning session. We then saw a small retracement higher which was then quickly sold back lower. The SPX did attempt to make a stand at the 2890 micro support level having bounced off of that level several times today however this level finally gave way in the afternoon session at which point we saw an accelerated move lower thus giving us a sustained break of this 2890 level.

No, I Don’t Think We Topped Yet Thu Aug 8th 2019

In yesterday’s analysis, I noted that I thought the direct move higher had a small advantage based upon where we were at the time of my writing the update.  And, with this morning’s move through resistance, it made that a high probability.  As I also noted, the 2930SPX region was my preferred target, and was the lower end of our target box for a b-wave rally.  However, simply because we have struck my target does not mean that I think we have topped.

Market Still Trying To Bounce Wed Aug 7th 2019

With the market whipsawing back and forth today, it has certainly made it quite clear that we are likely in the center of corrective action.  And, yes, corrective action is quite difficult and marked by much whipsaw.  So, when you know this in advance, you must adjust your trading style, as well as your risk management.

A Bounce Was Due Tue Aug 6th 2019

With the market dropping down to our secondary support region yesterday, I noted that it was reasonable to expect a bounce to develop in the near term, which is what we got today and should not come as a surprise: “Ultimately, it means I think it to be reasonable to expect a bounce in the near term, which could very well just be a b-wave, as presented in green.  Also, it is reasonable to assume it can rally back up towards the bottom of the trend channel before it turns back down in the c-wave lower.

This Is Likely Only The “Initiation” Move Off The Highs Mon Aug 5th 2019

With today's major damage done in the market, I think it makes it quite likely that we should not expect any major recoveries into a bullish trend anytime soon.  The 3011-45SPX resistance region has certainly turned us down hard as we expected, but it seems that the market truly turned overly bullish up into that resistance. The reason I note what I just did is that the manner in which we have now declined has wiped out the gains from both June and July in less than a week.

The Fat Lady Is Still Warming Up Thu Aug 1st 2019

What a wild day.  But, I cannot say it was completely unexpected.  As the market rallied strongly right to the top of our resistance region today, I note the following in an alert: “For anyone who remembers trading during the 2008-09 financial crisis, one of the things you may remember is that corrective rallies were ridiculously strong.  For now, I have to view this as a corrective rally.  In the cash SPX index, the a=c off the lows comes in around the 3020SPX region.

Awaiting The Fat Lady Wed Jul 31st 2019

With the market breaking down below micro support of 3000 today, we have an initial indication of topping.  But, we have seen this several times before, only to see the market come back to strike higher highs.  For this reason, I have noted that I prefer to see a strong break of the 2950SPX region, of which we came up a little shy today. This afternoon, I posted a daily chart noting that it is time to zoom out a bit.

We Have A Little Room Left Tue Jul 30th 2019

With this morning’s weakness, the SPX came right down into our micro support box, and held to the penny. As noted on the 5-minute chart, should we hold this support on a pullback, it leaves the door open to the 3034-45SPX as a target for a final high in this move off the June lows.  What is most interesting is that this structure – as well as the Nasdaq chart – trace out well as ending diagonals.

Grinding Until The Fed? Mon Jul 29th 2019

Thus far, the market is not terribly exciting this week.  While we still remain contained by long term resistance, we are also still levitating over the micro support between 3000-3008SPX.  And, unfortunately, it does not seem as though we may get much movement between one of these regions until the Fed provides us with the catalyst.