Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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Are The Markets Finally Ready For Some Downside Follow-Through Thu Jan 23rd 2020

ES/SPX - After seeing a sharp drop overnight and into the early part of the session the equity markets have all formed intraday bottoms and bounced higher. At the open, the initial move down off of the high was counting as a nice five wave move on most of the futures charts which was giving us a nice signal that we would see additional downside action in at least the near term.

SPX Pressing Higher and Tests The Overhead Fibs Wed Jan 22nd 2020

After breaking higher overnight we saw the ES move lower during the regular time trading hours moving down off of the highs that were struck just after the open. This is giving us a full pattern and we can consider the move up off of the 1/15 low completed as well as the larger degree pattern for wave (v) of larger wave (3) as shown on the 60min SPX chart.

Still Over Support But Warning Signs Are Flashing Tue Jan 21st 2020

After holding micro support overnight the market pushed higher topping less than 1 tick from the high that was struck last week. We then saw a fairly sharp drop across all of the market index charts as well as a sharp rise up on the VXX. All of these moves can be counted as five wave moves which is giving us an initial warning sign that we may have struck at least a local top. From here I still would want to see the ES drop below the 3302 level to give us an additional signal that a local top has been struck.

Market Breaks Out Higher Leaving The Door Open For a Push Towards That 3300/3340 Zone Thu Jan 16th 2020

Today the market opened higher leaving the door open to see a push up towards the near term upper target that Avi had been noting in the 3330-3340 zone. The ES, however, has banging its head up against a fairly strong cluster of fib resistance right at the 3310 level which I was noting as a near term pivot level which would give us the next open door to seeing a move directly into that upper target zone.

Can We Still Push To 3330/40SPX? Wed Jan 15th 2020

The short answer is “yes.”  However, as I have been highlighting, the pattern in the SPX and ES are different due to the drop that the futures saw last week during the Iranian debacle, whereas the SPX saw none of that structure.  Therefore, based upon the ES, we can still see another [4][5], as shown on my ES chart, whereas the SPX chart has a full pattern in place.

Sloppy Action Tue Jan 14th 2020

With the overnight action along with today’s action turning very sloppy and overlapping, I really have no clear indication we have potentially topped yet until we see a sustained break of the 3270ES region.  And, until that is seen, I still need to recognize the potential for the market to try to reach just a bit higher before we complete this rally off the December low, which, in turn, would complete the rally off the October low.

Market Stretching For Higher Targets Mon Jan 13th 2020

As I outlined over the weekend, the ideal target for the SPX if it is going to retain this bullish structure is the 3338SPX region.  And, with the market holding the micro bullish pivot noted on my 3-minute ES chart, it seems we are still trying to stretch for this target.

Hovering Over Support Thu Jan 9th 2020

With the ES moving through the micro pivot on the 3-minute chart, we are hovering over the pivot all day today.  And, as long as we remain over this pivot, I now have to respect the yellow count much more so.  What this means in the near term is that as long as we remain over this micro pivot, I am looking to target the 3338SPX region.  Moreover, should the market continue higher over 3284ES, I will move the micro pivot up to the 3260-3271ES region.

Next 10 Points Should Tell The Story Wed Jan 8th 2020

For those that were trading last night, it was quite exciting.  As we came into the close, the market had a set up pointing down to the target box we had on our ES chart with a minimum expectation of just below 3200ES.  And, within a few hours later, we were already there. As we moved down to the 3185ES region, I was noting that it looked like we will likely bottom within the 3175-85ES region, as long as we held that support.

Corrective Action Seems To Be Continuing Tue Jan 7th 2020

If you have been following my 3-minute ES chart, you would have expected us to top out in the 3250 region, and then drop back down to the target box below.  With the market pushing slightly past that resistance, it did make me consider an alternative, as presented in yellow. But, I first want to explain that the count presented in yellow makes me uncomfortable even as alternative due to the very unusual proportions we would have to accept for that to be a completed wave [iv].