Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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They Don’t Ring A Bell At The Top Thu Sep 19th 2019

So, over the last couple of weeks I have been following the market rather carefully to determine where this b-wave is going to top.  And, it is not until today that I can say we now have enough waves in place in the SPX to consider it done. However, I want to warn you.  It is only the SPX that has that potential, and it would be in a form of a double top.  You see, the SPX has 5 waves taking us up into the high today, which can complete a 5th wave within the [c] wave of this b-wave rally.

Testing Initial Support Wed Sep 18th 2019

While I am clearly not smart enough to opine about the Fed action and what it means to the market, I can provide levels and structure to watch to know which way we are heading for the next larger degree move. Last night, I noted that I can count an initial 5 waves down in SPX whereas I do not have the same pattern in the futures.  But, If the SPX count is applicable, we are now testing the 1.00 extension off that high in the 2975SPX region.

No Top Signal Yet Tue Sep 17th 2019

As the really “smart” people debate in the media and in print about what the Fed is going to do tomorrow and how it will affect our market, I am not smart enough to understand much about what they claim is “important” to determine market direction. So, I am forced to keep it quite simple.

Ascent Slowing Mon Sep 16th 2019

With the pullback we experienced today, I cannot say that I have seen anything impulsive to the downside off the recent highs.  This still leaves the door wide open for another push higher to complete the b-wave we are primarily tracking. In fact, we did not even approach the 2945/50SPX support below us, so without a breach of support, or an impulsive structure off the highs, I have nothing to suggest that this rally has potentially terminated.

No new ATH yet Thu Sep 12th 2019

The market traded higher today, achieving most of the gains after hours again when Trump tweeted that tariffs would be delayed. With the move higher today, we now have enough waves within the substructure to consider the recent extension off Tuesday's low as complete. However, a break below today's low at 3000.75 is needed as the minimum indication of such, with better confirmation below 2990 that price is at least setting up a retest of Tuesday's low at 2957.

Boy, Do I "Feel" Bullish Wed Sep 11th 2019

While the market action is certainly making me “feel” very bullish as we approach the 3000 region in the SPX again, I am trying to remain grounded based upon what the analysis is showing to me. Clearly, I can outline a very bullish count which suggests exactly what everyone seems to feel right now – that we are heading to the 3800-4100SPx region.  But, I simply in good conscience cannot do so.

Now That Bonds Have Pulled Back As Expected, Maybe We Can Set Up Another Rally Tue Sep 10th 2019

This will be posted as a public article: I think this market has been providing many investors with whipsaw and head aches, which has also caused much head scratching.  (And, yes, that little itch may be telling you something). Back in November of 2018, no one even considered the possibility of a bond rally because the Fed was raising rates.  And, recently, no one even considered the possibility of any type of top in bonds because the Fed is now lowering rates.

The IWM Is Leading The Way Tue Sep 10th 2019

When the IWM invalidated its downside pattern, it began to take the lead in the markets, and started pointing us higher.  In fact, thus far, the IWM is following the guideposts of Fibonacci Pinball rather well.  Yet, I cannot say that the structure has been ideal.  And, for this reason, I must stay on my toes. So, let’s look at the detail count on the 3-minute chart so we all know what to be looking for in the coming days.

No Clear Top Yet Mon Sep 9th 2019

The action today has done nothing yet to suggest the market has struck a top to this b-wave rally we have been tracking for well over a month.  Rather, it just adds to the complexity. First, I want to note that the SPX/ES has only 3 waves down off today’s high.  While a 5th wave down would provide some progress to assessing a topping structure, we would still need a corrective rally thereafter, followed by a break down below the initial 5 waves down to suggest a top has indeed been struck.

Immediate Downside Setup Broken Thu Sep 5th 2019

With the market moving through the top of the prior downside setup, it clearly broke that textbook 1-2, i-ii downside structure.  As I have noted many times before, if I would see this structure 10 times, I would analyze it exactly in the same manner all 10 times, and would probably see ideal follow through 8 out of 10 times.  There are a minority of times when an ideal structure does not follow through, and this was one of those times.