Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Detailed Micro-Count Update Thu Sep 20th 2018

In  my haste to get out the update, I had 2890/2990/2980 confused in a few places.  This should have it corrected:  My apologies: As we have been tracking how this market is going to subdivide to take us to the ideal target of 3225 (which we have had for quite some time), there have been several set ups that could have taken us there.

Consolidation day Wed Sep 19th 2018

The market was flat as a pancake today, consolidating sideways and digesting yesterday's move higher. Therefore, my thoughts from this morning remain pretty much the same. There remains no reason to assume that this consolidation is anything but corrective, likely setting up further upside into the end of the month. If corrective, then ideal micro support to hold is 2901 - 2895 SPX, as the .382 to .618 retrace of the latest move up into yesterday's high.

Market Is Still Bullish Mon Sep 17th 2018

As I outlined over the weekend, as well as over the last few weeks, as long as the market remains over 2830SPX, we still have a path pointing to 3225SPX.  In fact, I think we will likely remain over 2840SPX if the market should follow through to the downside in the yellow count on the 5-minute chart. But, as shown on the 5-minute chart, I really do not have a cleanly completed 5 waves up since the pullback low struck a week and a half ago.

Market Trying To Be More Bullish Thu Sep 13th 2018

With the market moving to the edge of the resistance on our 5 minute chart, it is attempting to provide us with a wave 1 which can minimally work with the larger degree blue wave structure on the 60-minute chart.  But, as of the close today, I cannot confidently say that the yellow wave count is out of the question.  Ultimately, the bigger perspective remains the same:  as long as we remain over 2830SPX, we should be ready to attack the 3000 region next.

No Clear Signal YET Wed Sep 12th 2018

Before I took off in observance of the Rosh Hashanah holiday, I noted that I wanted to see a clear 5 wave structure off support to signal we are on our way to the 3000 region.  Unfortunately, the market has chosen to hide its intentions again. The only way I can consider that we have begun the rally to the 3000 region is if the move off support is counted as a leading diagonal, as presented in blue on the 5-minute chart.

Potential bottom Tue Sep 11th 2018

After the initial move lower this morning that came close to retesting the low made last week, the market managed to turn strongly back up, eventually exceeding yesterday's high. Therefore, with a higher low and higher high today, we have the initial indications of a near-term trend change and a bottom in place for this pullback off the August high.

Need more evidence of a bottom Mon Sep 10th 2018

Today's trading session was relatively tame, with price able to hold positive gains into the afternoon. Despite price making a little more progress off the low made last week though, there is still nothing clearly reliable to assume that a bottom has confidently been struck to this pullback off the late August high. If a bottom is indeed in place, then I want to see further upside again tomorrow, starting with a break back above the high made this morning followed by the local high made last week at 2893.

A Walk In The Clouds Wed Sep 5th 2018

Well, right now, I feel like I am soaring among the clouds.  Whereas the market has attained heights many never dared dream of years ago, we have been looking up to these levels for years.  So, we are clearly soaring in the clouds. But, at the same time, when you are soaring amongst the clouds, it does get cloudy.  And, right now, I would classify the current structure as a bit cloudy.

Market Short Term Rally In Jeopardy Tue Sep 4th 2018

With the market breaking below Friday’s low, we have opened the door to a bigger pullback in the coming week.  Allow me to explain my concerns regarding immediate upside follow-through. While the market was playing textbook Fibonacci Pinball for several weeks now, the break down below Friday’s low has now provided us a warning as it has gone outside standard Fibonacci Pinball.  You see, within our Fibonacci Pinball system (which is a standardized analysis), once the market strikes a 1.

Pullback into support Thu Aug 30th 2018

The price action after the open this morning tilted odds in favor of a local top in place as wave 3 of iii, with price beginning a corrective pullback as wave 4 of iii. Price did not disappoint, following through lower soon afterward and reaching the target support region cited between 2901 - 2890.