Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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Still holding the blue ED, but struggling somewhat to follow through so far Thu Jun 22nd 2017

The market traded initially higher this morning but is now rolling back over again into the close. So far this leaves us with only 3 waves up off yesterday's low, but under the ending diagonal blue count that is not really an issue since the circle wave 5 should itself break down into 3 waves.

Ending diagonal still preferred, but needs to hold today's low Wed Jun 21st 2017

The market continued lower into the afternoon, dipping briefly below the 2433 SPX support before rebounding into the close. As long as the low today holds, then there is still a very reasonable chance to see the circle wave 5 up to 2458 SPX still to complete the ending diagonal wave v of (iii). However, today's downside is about the limit that I want to see for the circle wave 4, so if today's low were to break instead, then I would be much more cautious looking for further immediate upside.

Setup still calls for higher, but looks like an ending diagonal now Tue Jun 20th 2017

The market continued lower after the open, eventually heading below yesterday's low in order to make the standard impulse count for wave v of (iii) more questionable. While the standard impulse count is technically still valid if an immediate stick-save is seen from here, based on today's trading the ending diagonal path discussed this morning is looking more and more likely now.

Near-term setup still higher Mon Jun 19th 2017

The SPX took the more direct route today as wave v of (iii) already, making a new high on the month in what likely counts as wave (3) of circle 3. The consolidation into the afternoon was either all of or part of wave (4) of circle 3, so tomorrow more upside can be expected in wave (5) of circle 3. This expectation will remain as long as price is above today's open at 2442 SPX, with 2458 - 2476 SPX as the larger target region above to complete all of wave v of (iii).

Consolidation Is The Name Of The Game Thu Jun 15th 2017

One has to remember that trending moves in the market take only a fraction of the time relative to the amount of time that the market consolidates.  And, this applies at all time scales.  For now, I still view our current action as a consolidation in wave iv.  And, as mentioned last night, downside was the more likely outcome for today.

Market Is Caught In Between Wed Jun 14th 2017

The pattern we have traced out thus far off last Friday’s low is really only best counted as 3 waves up.  And, the depth of this pullback suggests that if the market is going higher, then it will likely be forming an ending diagonal.  But, those are quite treacherous to trade, with many stops and starts.  And, unfortunately, I will still have to consider that potential as long as we are over 2425SPX, the .618 retracement of that rally.

Market Still Bullish Over Support Tue Jun 13th 2017

While the market has maintained over the 2410SPX region, and moved through the resistance noted yesterday at 2436SPX, there are several issues I am seeing at this time. First, if we remain over today’s pullback low seen during market hours (2431SPX/2429ES), the upside in this wave v of 3 in SPX seems as though it may be limited to the 2455SPX region, which is the 1.382 extension, rather than the 2473SPX region at the 1.618 extension.

We May Park Here Mon Jun 12th 2017

With the market over the 2410SPX region, I have to still maintain my bullish bias in the near term.  While many disagree with my perspective, I have to restate that I just do not have a completed pattern to the upside, at least from a probabilistic perspective.  Therefore, I will maintain my bullish bias in the near term unless the market tells me otherwise.

Further consolidation Thu Jun 8th 2017

The market consolidated further today, chopping around but overall closing relatively flat. That suggests that the corrective structure off the June high may not be complete just yet, and it is possible to see a retest of yesterday's low in a larger flat. However, no important support has been breached and therefore the setup for further upside remains intact even if we get a slightly longer consolidation.

Pullback Should Be Completing Wed Jun 7th 2017

As we have said over and over, as long as the market holds support between 2420/25SPX, then the bulls remain in control.  Today, we dropped down to the smaller degree 1.00 extension of wave iii of 3 at 2425SPX.  That may have completed this pullback.  While the subwaves down do not count cleanly as a full a-b-c structure, we may still have one more drop to support before we begin wave (v) of iii.