Market Update

Avi Gilburt

Each evening Avi Gilburt provides in-depth Elliott Wave analysis on the emini S&P 500, with occasional coverage of the U.S. Dollar, VIX, oil (USO), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's latest market update, along with his intraday "wave alerts" and live member discussion forum, please login.


Topping Into Turn Window Thu Oct 8th 2015

With the set-up we had today, we continued to look higher to complete a 5th wave to this c-wave.  For now, we are in what seems to be the final throes of this c-wave, as we move right into our turn window and target region. As I said last night, if the market can move through the 2000 region, our next likely target is the 2030SPX zone.

How Much Higher Can We Go? Wed Oct 7th 2015

Today, the market has struck out minimum target for this c-wave rally we have been expecting.   However, there is nothing that is suggesting to me the top has been struck.  Furthermore, from a timing perspective, we seem to have several more days until we reach our next turn window. For now, I am questioning whether wave iii of (c) has actually completed.  If the market can drop into tomorrow morning for a c-wave of iv, then I can confidently view the wave iii as having completed.

Bullish path remains on track Tue Oct 6th 2015

Today the market obliged with our expectations going into the close yesterday, a 4th wave consolidation as either wave iv of (iii) in the red count or the start of a larger wave (iv) of c in the blue count. However, it was not kind enough to provide us with a clear resolution to the pullback yet, as the bounce off today's low looks like only 3 waves.

Market continues to follow the bullish script Mon Oct 5th 2015

With the strong follow through we've seen today, I am taking the bearish red count off the chart for the time being only so that I can show the two variations of the bullish count as a c-wave off the September low. These counts still hinge on support at 1935.75 ES holding from here on out or else a bearish count will make another appearance. With price extending all the way to the 1.

Bullish Set Up In Bearish Market Thu Oct 1st 2015

While the ES had the opportunity to break out overnight, it failed to follow through on the impulsive set up it had to take us higher.  At the time, both the ES and the SPX had different patterns, which has made it quite difficult to synthesize the charts for a confident set up. As it stands now, both the SPX and the ES now have a bullish set up in place in a i-ii structure for the c-wave higher we have wanted to see.

Yet Another Inflection Point Wed Sep 30th 2015

Last night, we were faced with an inflection point in the equity markets, and tonight we have one in the miners.  While the market has not made it abundantly clear that it wants to head to lower lows sooner rather than later, the set-up is now in place for the final blood bath to begin tomorrow.  In the GDX, we had a 5 wave structure from last week’s high complete to the downside into the low today, which was then followed by what we can now call 3 waves up.

Can bulls capitalize on this setup? Wed Sep 30th 2015

With the break above the 1895 ES pivot level last night and follow through higher today, the door has been opened for the bullish blue count to make a comeback here. There is a slight discrepancy between the futures ES and cash SPX charts though, where ES looks like it needs one more local high as wave v of (i) but SPX can count as 5 up already. It is very possible that ES makes a new local high after hours before pulling back some in order to resolve this discrepancy.

Major Inflection Point Tue Sep 29th 2015

With the triangle potential I posted over the weekend clearly broken, the market is at a major decision point right now.  Over the weekend, the general guidelines I presented were as follows: “a break down below 1885SPX points us towards the August lows, which, if broken, has me minimally targeting the 1820-1835SPX region, with an ideal target in the 1775SPX region and extension target at 1694SPX.” The breakdown below 1885 has clearly placed the market in a precarious position.

Pressure remains down Tue Sep 29th 2015

Today the market spent the majority of the trading session consolidating sideways before dropping lower into the close. Price stayed below important resistance for wave iv of (iii) in the bearish red count during that consolidation, so that path remains preferred. Under the red count, price should be starting wave v of (iii) down to ~1840 ES before the next corrective bounce as wave (iv). However, in order for the red count to remain the preferred path, price should stay below the 1:45 pm high at 1881.

Path to a new swing low has been cleared Mon Sep 28th 2015

Equities fell sharply lower today, taking the immediate downside path under the red count as a possible 3rd wave off the September high. Under the red count, we are already in a C-wave down to a new swing low, with price in wave (iii) of iii of that C-wave. If that count is correct, then red wave (iii) of iii should stretch all the way to ~1840 ES before completing and setting up a corrective bounce as wave (iv) of iii back to 1865 - 1882 ES.