Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.


SPX - More Of The Same Today Thu Jun 13th 2019

Today the SPX opened up in what can still be counted as a micro retracement of the initial move down off of the 2911 high. We then saw a move up into the 61.8 retrace of that move down before stalling out and turning down. That downturn failed to see much follow through and at the time of this writing, we are trading relatively flat on the day. From a structural perspective, I really do not have much to add to the shorter term analysis as there really is very little change from yesterday.

100 Points Of Indecision Overhead Thu Jun 13th 2019

As I warned all our members several weeks ago that if the market failed to follow through below 2720/35SPX support, it will project us back up towards the 2900 region, and make this market much more complicated to discern in the near term.  And, if we are able to move over the high we struck this week, then it will increase the complexity even further. Unfortunately, trading out of a 4th wave – especially a larger degree one – is never easy.

SPX Stuck In A Holding Pattern Wed Jun 12th 2019

Today the Market opened relatively flat and then proceeded to push a bit lower under yesterday's low. That break of the low failed to see a strong follow-through to the downside and we traded in a fairly tight range most of the day. At the time of this writing we are still trading relatively flat on the day and there is really very little to new to report from yesterday's update.

SPX - A Full Pattern Is Now In Place Tue Jun 11th 2019

Today the Market opened higher and pushed just over the 76.4 retrace from the entire move down off of the May highs within the first half hour of trading. This move was quickly reversed and by the time the lunch hour was over we saw the market some 30 points down off of the early morning high. Furthermore, the pattern into today's highs can now be considered a full abc corrective pattern up off of 2728 low down to the most micro of timeframes.

The Market Is Setting Us Up – The “New Paradigm” Is Almost Here Tue Jun 11th 2019

For the last 5 days, I have been in a hotel room in Idaho Falls waiting for my wife to get clearance from the doctors to fly home.  During that time, while my wife has been sleeping, I have been contemplating the overall nature of the stock market within its greater context.  So, I wanted to take a moment to put pen to paper (so to speak), and just present to you what I have been thinking. The bearish price action of 2008 did a lot of damage to the investor psyche.

SPX – Still Pushing Higher Thu Jun 6th 2019

Overnight the SPX futures have continued to grind higher and this grind continued throughout the day into the late afternoon. At the time of this writing, the SPX hit the 50% retrace of the entire move down off of the 2957 high and as so far held this level.

SPX - The Rally Continues Wed Jun 5th 2019

Overnight the SPX futures continued to push higher which pushed the most immediately bearish path over the edge and has us now focusing on the more complex patterns which had previously been alternate paths. The early part of the trading session the market did retrace about 25 points from the overnight high, however, we were unable to break through even the upper end of micro support before pushing to new highs once again.

We MAY Get Much More Complicated Tue Jun 4th 2019

As of today’s close, the market has pushed as far as I can accept for a standard impulsive structure to the downside in the current green count.  Admittedly, we really should not have come this high in a standard structure.  But, that means that, tomorrow, the market must make a strong statement with downside action to keep this potential alive. However, should it fail to do so, as I warned many times before, it would make the market much more difficult and treacherous over the coming months.

SPX Pushing The Limit On Both Ends Tue Jun 4th 2019

After holding our key downside support at the 2735 level overnight today, the market opened higher with a gap and continued to press higher with very shallow retraces throughout the day. We moved directly through the lower end of our first resistance at the 2773 level and near the end of the day closed in on the upper end of this zone at 2796 with the high of the day as of this writing coming in at 2796.10.

SPX Testing Key Support Mon Jun 3rd 2019

After seeing downside action in the overnight futures market, the SPX opened relatively flat and tried to break higher in the early part of the morning session. This break higher was short-lived, however, and within the first hour of trading, the SPX had moved lower making a local bottom just over the 2735 support level that we have been watching for the past several weeks. The first attempt to crack this support level failed, and the SPX bounced higher only to be sold off again just before lunch.