Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Can We Maintain Upside Pressure? Thu Nov 8th 2018

Over the last month, this has provided challenges for the bears and bulls alike.  And, currently, the bulls are still trying to keep pressure on the bears, as they have likely made them feel like they have them on the ropes. As I noted to the members of my live video service this morning, the market has trained money managers and investors quite well.  For years, we have had a rally into year end, and it is expected again.

We Got Our Curve-ball Wed Nov 7th 2018

As I said the other day, the market was almost too easy in its turns up and down over the last few weeks.  That is why I said to prepare for a curve ball.  And, the curve-ball seems to be setting up as a direct move to our resistance overhead.

A Bit More Detail Tue Nov 6th 2018

So, here is a little wrinkle that I will be watching due to the action into the close.  If we drop down directly in a 5 wave structure in the SPX from a high we either struck at the end of today, or will strike tomorrow with a bit higher push, then it is clear that this rally to a higher high was a b-wave within the green (a)(b) structure, with a (c) wave rally to follow.

Hitting Our Head Tue Nov 6th 2018

As the market has pushed up to the upper end of our resistance region for a b-wave we are hitting our head and running out of room. In the micro structure, we have an (a)(b)(c) rally, with the (c) wave best counting as an ending diagonal.  But, the hallmark of an ending diagonal is that it reverses very strongly when completed, and drops down to the region from which it began – in our case, that would be the 2710-20ES region.

We Have One More Twist Thu Nov 1st 2018

I have told you many times in the past that I never take the market for granted, and am always looking for where I can be wrong in my primary assessment of the market.  And, while my primary expectation has been that we have begun wave 4 already, the ES MAY develop 5 waves off the 2600 region low.  (I want to note that the SPX does not have as clear a 5-wave structure adhering to Fibonacci Pinball targets in the same manner as is possibly seen in the ES).

One More Pullback Before 2850+ Wed Oct 31st 2018

Yesterday, right after I posted my evening update, the market decided to move directly through the lower resistance of the triangle potential.  So, I sent out another update noting that as long as the overnight market does not break back below 2666/72 region, we will rally to 2720ES on Wednesday.  As we have seen today, the market provided us with even stronger extensions higher, which is not unexpected due to how oversold the market has been.

Will We See A 30% Correction Due To A Trump Impeachment? Tue Oct 30th 2018

For those following my analysis in the S&P500 through the years, you would know that we have called the stock market rather well.  In fact, we called for the rally to 2100 in 2015, and then expected a pullback from 2100 to the 1800 region as we came into 2016.  However, unlike most others at the time, we expected that pullback would set us up for a 40%+ rally in the overall index before we see a 20-30% correction.  In fact, we were calling for a “global melt-up” at the time.

Turned Down At Resistance Yet Again Mon Oct 29th 2018

When the market bottomed on Friday at the support we presented, it initially turned up strongly and gave us a possible indication that a bottom may be in for the green a-wave low within this wave 4.  And, Sunday night, I laid out a set up which would have potential to take us up to resistance, and potentially even beyond on the 5-minute ES chart.  Taking us beyond resistance would have provided initial confirmation that the green a-wave has completed.

Is The Pain For Longs Over? Thu Oct 25th 2018

Well, to be honest, that is quite a loaded question I asked in the title, especially since I expect that we can head down to the 2200SPX region for wave 4. But, in the short term, the question is if we are ready to begin a b-wave rally back up to 2800, and even potentially beyond? Overall, the market has done quite well in respecting the resistance levels we have been laying out throughout this decline, and continuing the decline from those resistance targets.

Market Still Feeling For A Bottom Wed Oct 24th 2018

With the rally we experienced into the end of day yesterday, many had turned quite bullish and expected a continuation day today.  But, that was not to be.  You see, it really feels as though the character of the market is changing, as these types of swings do not usually happen in a bull market. But, for now, the market is still trying to feel out for the bottom to this a-wave.