Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.


Still tentatively looking down Thu Aug 18th 2016

The market continued higher after the open to test the 2184 - 2188 SPX resistance region for a larger b-wave of (a) in the blue count, and held that elevation into close. Despite no clear immediate downside setup after today's action, and price climbing higher than ideal for the b-wave under the blue count, evidence that I am seeing across various charts still appears supportive of a larger pullback needed in equities.

Still looking for the initial stages of a pullback Wed Aug 17th 2016

The market started off initially lower today, breaking below the two levels of signal support cited at 2179.50 SPX and 2172 SPX in order to suggest a local top in place as wave i of 3 under the blue count. Price has since staged a decent bounce off of the low this morning, but so far as only 3 waves into the .618 retrace of the move down off of the high. This suggests that the bounce was corrective, likely as only a b-wave within wave (a) of ii under the blue count. A move back below 2172.

Early stages of consolidation Tue Aug 16th 2016

The market continued lower today, but so far has not been able to break below Friday's low at 2179.50 SPX. That support followed by 2172 SPX are still the two signal levels that I want to see taken out in order to confirm a local top in blue wave i of 3 and the start of a corrective retrace in blue wave ii of 3. Assuming that price does follow through below those levels of support, then I will be looking for blue wave ii to reach at least the 50 day SMA at 2129 SPX if not the .382 retrace at 2115 SPX.

2196 almost reached Mon Aug 15th 2016

The market churned higher today, getting closer to the 2196 SPX fib target above. Despite this further extension, my expectations remain the same for now, and still believe we are approaching a local top in this region as wave i of 3, which should yield a corrective pullback in wave ii of 3. Price has to take out Friday's low followed by 2172 SPX in order to signal that a local top has been struck though, after which I will be looking for at least a retest of the 50 day SMA before wave ii completes.

Completed Pattern or Are We Just Getting Started? Thu Aug 11th 2016

With the market making a higher high today, a much more complete looking 5 wave structure has now completed off the 2147SPX low.  This makes our job quite simple right now. First, I am going to expect that we will maintain below resistance noted on the chart and now begin a pullback.  If the pullback is shallow and does not break down below the blue count support box, and then rallies over the resistance region, then we are on our way to 2350 sooner than I had initially expected.

Initial Cracks In The Armor Or Set Up For Melt Up? Wed Aug 10th 2016

Today’s drop broke the levels the ES should have IDEALLY held if it was going to move higher for a 5th wave to complete the rally off the low made on the 2nd of the month.  But, what the market has now done is provided us with more definitive upside resistance due to this pullback.

Another Higher High Tue Aug 9th 2016

While the market continues to make higher highs, it certainly “feels” like it is running out of steam.  But, I think that is simply because we have several 4’s and 5’s in the current move up off last week’s low to complete.  That usually makes the market feel like its “struggling.” But, nothing much has really changed in my bigger perspective.

Consolidation Day Mon Aug 8th 2016

After a strong end of the week last week, the market seems to have spent the day today in consolidation mode.  I have added a 5 minute ES chart micro count to this update to show where I believe we are in the micro count.  Today’s action seems to be best counted as wave iv of wave (3) off last week’s low.  This means that, as long as the support box on the 5 minute chart holds, our next move is likely higher to at least the 1.382 extension at 2185ES, or, more likely, the 1.

Choices Thu Aug 4th 2016

Today was mostly a consolidation day, as we didn't get much movement in either direction. As noted this morning, after the overnight price action and the action that we saw today, it is no longer clear that this bounce off Tuesday's low is corrective and instead could be the start of red wave (v). Price had the opportunity for a setup lower into yesterday's close and did not take it, thus we must consider the alternatives.

Corrective bounce Wed Aug 3rd 2016

The market traded modestly higher today, following the suggested setup from the alert sent out this morning for a bounce. So far this bounce has showed us signs of being corrective, so unless it morphs into something impulsive looking or breaks above the .618 retrace at 2166.50 SPX, it will likely be followed by another leg down in either red wave (iv) or the start of blue wave ii.