Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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Downside Risk Still Quite Evident Tue Dec 11th 2018

When we broke down below the 2880SPX level back in October, I strongly warned that any further upside that the market may see would not likely be worth the risk of the potential for us to drop directly down to the 2600 region.  Thus far, it seems to have been the correct call.  And, from the 2600 region, we were looking for a bounce, which we had primarily viewed as being a (b) wave.  Again, this seems to have been the correct call as well.

Will Bears Follow Through Or Is More Whipsaw Ahead? Mon Dec 10th 2018

The bears broke us below 2600SPX today, yet it does not look like they could seal the deal.  Rather, we have what counts as a potential 5 wave structure off that lower low, which aligns with the IWM for a potential expanded (b) wave.  And, without the IWM seeing a sustained break of 142, amazingly, this still leaves us with yet another whipsaw scenario on the table.

How Much Whipsaw Do We Have To Endure Before We Finally Break 2600? Thu Dec 6th 2018

With the continuation lower today, I provided a number of charts and explanations in alerts throughout the morning regarding the differences in structure between the cash index and the futures.  Both those charts told me to key in on the 2630 region, which, if broken strongly, would suggest we are on our wave to complete the (c) wave of the a-wave in the 2450-2500 region sooner rather than later.

The Whipsaw Continues Tue Dec 4th 2018

I am not sure how many times I have warned people about the environment we are now within, yet many still get surprised when the market whipsaws investors.  Folks, please accept that this whipsaw will likely continue for some time, especially if we are forced to deal with a triangle for the next few months. But, the main perspective you have to take from our analysis is that the market has more room to the downside in the larger degree over the coming year than it does on the upside.

The Direct Path Before Us Mon Dec 3rd 2018

With the market continuing to push higher, it has clearly told us that it was going to target the lower blue box target before giving us a 1-2 set up for 2900+.  So, last night, and again this morning, I explained how this action lays out our options before us in a step-by-step manner: I am going to re-post what I posted last night.  But, first, I want to highlight that resistance is now between 2820-2860SPX.  Support is now at 2750SPX.

Market Is Digesting Its Gains Thu Nov 29th 2018

Thus far, the market has simply been consolidating today, at least as of my writing this update.  But, based upon yesterday’s break out of resistance, I believe we still have higher levels to strike. As I wrote in an update sent out last night: “we now LIKLEY have a floor in the market for at least the next month.  That means pullbacks can now be bought with a lower probability of any immediate break downs.

Looking More Bullish Today Wed Nov 28th 2018

As the market continued to rally into the open, we noted that the 2683ES level of prior resistance would now act as minor support.  And, when the market made it clear that it was not giving us a downside structure to break down, I noted the door was open for the market to rally up to our target box.  It did not take long for the market to validate our intra-day perspective with the break out that developed in the afternoon.

Some Yellow Light Shining Through Tue Nov 27th 2018

As I have outlined today, we have a path before us as to how the yellow count can take hold, and point us to as high as the 2925SPX region in the coming weeks.  But, there is going to be a major test of this potential coming up, even if we should break out through 2683ES. I have highlighted several things on the 5-minute ES chart attached.  First, support for the yellow count now resides at 2635SPX.

Market May Still Have Another Trick Up Its Sleeve Wed Nov 21st 2018

While we still remain below the 2680ES region, and can still see a drop down to the 2600 region, I am losing confidence in the current set up to take us below 2585SPX.  This means that we may actually finally see that rally over 2800SPX again in the c-wave of (b). There are a number of charts I have been watching which suggest that a larger degree rally can still be seen before further weakness.  Yet, I cannot rely upon that as long as we remain below the 2680SPX resistance.

More Whipsaw To Come Mon Nov 19th 2018

Early this morning, the market gave us hints of a drop to the 2700 region, which I posted as an alert.  And, as it followed through, it certainly provided us with the potential long side set up we were looking for to take us back to the 2860SPX region in a bigger (b) wave rally.