Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.


And Then There Were Two Thu Jun 20th 2019

With today’s break out to a new all-time high – even by a few pennies – it has allowed us to take off several of the potentials we have been following of late.  At this point, it really should become much easier. But, first, the market still looks like it is driving to complete a 5-wave structure we have been highlighting on the 5-minute chart.  As you can see, the market may still be attempting to fill in wave 3, with a break down below 2930SPX signaling that we are likely within wave 4.

Still Well Over Support Wed Jun 19th 2019

There is not much more to add to what I have said over the last few days.  As I noted this morning, as long as the market remains over 2890SPX, the bulls still have the ball.  And, they are still trying to complete this 5 wave structure developing off the June lows. More specifically, the wave 3 off the June lows will likely attack the all-time market high, followed by a 4th wave back towards the 1.00 extension in the 2890SPX region, to be followed by a 5th wave into the target box above.

Markets See No Change Post Fed "News" Wed Jun 19th 2019

Today we spent a lot of time in anticipation of the Fed announcement. This anticipation saw the market grind sideways all day up into the announcement time. After all of that anticipation, we finally received the news that the Fed would leave rates unchanged at 2pm Eastern. The market reaction to this news was very muted. We saw a very small spike up in the SPX which quickly faded and left us right back where we had been trading for most of the day.

Bulls Are Running Wild Tue Jun 18th 2019

Look.  I will not say that I am bearish the stock market in the bigger picture.  I have made no secret of the expectation I have for the market to be able to rally as high as the 4100 region over the coming 3-4 years.  However, I do not see it as a high probability that we have begun that rally at this time, even though many may disagree with me.

Still More Sideways Mon Jun 17th 2019

There really is not a lot to add right now with the market just grinding sideways.  So, it the 2910/11SPX level remains the key pivot overhead, with 2858SPX below us.  Over the upper pivot, and we are "likely" heading up to the 2965-2990SPX region as presented in purple on the 5 minute chart.  A break down below 2858 first keeps us in the yellow/green scenarios.  And, the Fed will likely provide the catalyst for the decision.

SPX - More Of The Same Today Thu Jun 13th 2019

Today the SPX opened up in what can still be counted as a micro retracement of the initial move down off of the 2911 high. We then saw a move up into the 61.8 retrace of that move down before stalling out and turning down. That downturn failed to see much follow through and at the time of this writing, we are trading relatively flat on the day. From a structural perspective, I really do not have much to add to the shorter term analysis as there really is very little change from yesterday.

100 Points Of Indecision Overhead Thu Jun 13th 2019

As I warned all our members several weeks ago that if the market failed to follow through below 2720/35SPX support, it will project us back up towards the 2900 region, and make this market much more complicated to discern in the near term.  And, if we are able to move over the high we struck this week, then it will increase the complexity even further. Unfortunately, trading out of a 4th wave – especially a larger degree one – is never easy.

SPX Stuck In A Holding Pattern Wed Jun 12th 2019

Today the Market opened relatively flat and then proceeded to push a bit lower under yesterday's low. That break of the low failed to see a strong follow-through to the downside and we traded in a fairly tight range most of the day. At the time of this writing we are still trading relatively flat on the day and there is really very little to new to report from yesterday's update.

SPX - A Full Pattern Is Now In Place Tue Jun 11th 2019

Today the Market opened higher and pushed just over the 76.4 retrace from the entire move down off of the May highs within the first half hour of trading. This move was quickly reversed and by the time the lunch hour was over we saw the market some 30 points down off of the early morning high. Furthermore, the pattern into today's highs can now be considered a full abc corrective pattern up off of 2728 low down to the most micro of timeframes.

The Market Is Setting Us Up – The “New Paradigm” Is Almost Here Tue Jun 11th 2019

For the last 5 days, I have been in a hotel room in Idaho Falls waiting for my wife to get clearance from the doctors to fly home.  During that time, while my wife has been sleeping, I have been contemplating the overall nature of the stock market within its greater context.  So, I wanted to take a moment to put pen to paper (so to speak), and just present to you what I have been thinking. The bearish price action of 2008 did a lot of damage to the investor psyche.