Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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More Accelerated Bullish Counts Tue Dec 6th 2016

With the higher high today, it seems as though the market provided us with yet another 5 wave structure off a low.  This means that I had to move to my alternative more immediately bullish count, which is now the light green count.   The primary count now has this rally as wave (i) of iii of 3.  That means we “should” still see another pullback this week in wave (ii) of iii of 3 before a major break out is seen.

Can We Drop Again? Mon Dec 5th 2016

With the rally today, my primary count is that this is a (b) wave high.  Is it a (b) wave of a bigger a-wave of 2, or is it a (b) wave of the dark green ii is still up in the air. But, the action in the ES suggests caution to anyone who is looking to the short side, especially if we see a higher high.  As you can see on the 5 minute SPX chart, a higher high would count best as a 5 wave move off Friday’s low.

How Deep Will We Pullback? Thu Dec 1st 2016

Today, in moving down to the 2189SPX region, we have an a-b-c structure off the recent highs, wherein the c-wave is equal to 1.618 the size of the a-wave. That is also the .382 retracement of wave alt i in dark green, which is the much more immediate bullish count.  My “preference” would be for this to simply be an (a) wave of a bigger pullback, but the market does not always give me what I prefer.

Tried But Failed – So Far Wed Nov 30th 2016

While the market held support and opened near the highs today, it still could not overcome that 2213SPX resistance region.  That level is actually the .618 extension of what represents the dark green wave 1 off the lows.  So, as presented here, that is either the 5th wave of the lighter green wave 1, or it is wave i of wave 3.  The issue from this point is a matter of support.

Market At Inflection Point Tue Nov 29th 2016

Over the last 24 hours, the market has broken down out of the uptrend channel we have been within for several weeks.  However, today, we bottomed after an a-b-c pullback, and began what seems to be an impulsive rally in the SPX. Yet, all we have done is test the channel from which we recently broke down from below.  Normally, that would suggest that we will see further weakness in the market.

Here Is The Broken Record Wed Nov 23rd 2016

There is nothing more to really add going into the holiday.  As long as we remain over 2080SPX, the market has left the door wide open to melt up into next week.  While I would really still like to see a bigger wave 2 pullback, the remaining over 2194SPX and consolidating does put a bit more of an immediate bullish spin on the market. So, again, in order to get the bigger pullback, we need to break 2180SPX.

Questioning A Pullback Tue Nov 22nd 2016

Sorry, the last one had a few typos on the levels.  My apologies: While my primary expectation has been to look for a wave 2 pullback in the market into the end of the month, the action today has certainly made me question that potential. The pullback we have seen thus far from the top end of the resistance region has not been able to exceed a micro .382 retracement of what I have labeled in the alternative count as wave (1) of iii of 3.

Running Out Of Room Mon Nov 21st 2016

For now, I still maintain the primary expectation I noted over the weekend.  The current move up seems to count best as a wave 1 of (iii) in the SPX, even though it is likely one degree higher in the IWM.  And, as long as we remain below resistance, then I will still expect a wave 2 pullback into the end of November. We need to break below Friday's low to begin our 2nd wave in earnest.

Market Pushing Resistance Thu Nov 17th 2016

As the market continued to squeeze higher today, it certainly looks like we are completing a 5th wave in wave 1 of (iii) as an ending diagonal.  While there is certainly a little more room overhead, with the 2193SPX level the ideal target, if we see a strong break below 2182SPX, it can open the door to the completion of this ED. Remember, when an ED completes, the move in the opposite direction is often quite violent.

Market Taking Its Time Wed Nov 16th 2016

As another day passes, the market has still left us right in the middle.  My “expectations” still remain looking for a wave 2 pullback, either as an immediate c-wave down into the end of the week, or after another push higher to resistance which will then likely send us down into next week for our wave 2 retracement.