Market Update

Avi Gilburt

Each evening Avi Gilburt provides in-depth Elliott Wave analysis on the emini S&P 500, with occasional coverage of the U.S. Dollar, VIX, oil (USO), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's latest market update, along with his intraday "wave alerts" and live member discussion forum, please login.

 

iv Still Not Likely Completed Wed Apr 27th 2016

When we provide Elliott Wave analysis, we have to apply the standards which we see the great majority of the time in the market.  But, it also means that sometimes the market does not adhere to those standards. Right now, the expectation is that the market still needs to drop lower to complete wave iv.  Clearly, the market can choose to head straight up to the higher target box.  But, the standards which govern our analysis provide that wave iv just does not yet seem complete.

Setup for lower Tue Apr 26th 2016

After an initial pop higher this morning near the .618 retrace, the SPX reversed back down again, leaving us with what looks like only 3 waves up off yesterday's low as a (b)-wave. Therefore, as long as we are below today's high, the setup is for further downside, as the start of a (c)-wave heading to at least 2063.50 SPX, but more likely closer to the April low.

Why Does Goldman Sachs Want Your Deposit Money? Mon Apr 25th 2016

Those that follow my analysis closely know that I am not a fan of the big banks.  In fact, I find most of their charts quite unhealthy from a long term perspective.  When you consider that most stocks in the overall market are well above the highs they struck back at the 2007 stock market top, and that Goldman Sachs is still well below its 2007 high, it does not take a brain surgeon to recognize that something is very wrong here.

Downside Set Up Mon Apr 25th 2016

It is not often that we have seen downside set ups in the market of late.  But, we have one at this time.  While it relies on an expanded b-wave scenario, I cannot say this is the most reliable of structures we have seen, but it is a reasonable one nonetheless. As we came into this week, our preference was for the market to provide us with a wave iv pullback back down to at least the 2040SPX region.  At this point, I still maintain that expectation.

Bears “Should” Take Control Thu Apr 21st 2016

We have what can be counted as a potential top to wave iii right into the 1.618 extension.  That is normally enough to consider that wave iii has topped. However, we have one issue:  the top was made on what counts best as 3 waves.  That means the market has left the door open for the high to have been an expanded b-wave in a micro wave (iv), setting us up for one more higher high tomorrow, as shown in the attached 5 minute chart.

The Bulls Keep Chugging Along Wed Apr 20th 2016

Once the bulls moved through the long term downtrend channels this week, it does not seem like they want to come back down.  Today, the SPX extended to the 1.618 extension, which is normally a target for wave iii, and there is no signal yet that this is done.  The IWM is also now flirting with yesterday’s high, and if we should see it strongly break out through it (over 114.

The Bulls Have Been Relentless Tue Apr 19th 2016

With the market now having moved through the down trend line from the all-time highs in both the IWM and the SPX, the bulls have been making a statement loudly and clearly:  We are back and want to stay. And, while the bears are typified by the old commercial line “help, I’ve fallen and I can’t get up,” I don’t think this one-way market will continue too much longer.

It's Decision Time Thu Apr 14th 2016

One cannot ignore what is right before us in the market.  As you can see from the two attached charts, the IWM and the SPX are both at the long term down trend lines formed from their respective all time highs.  The IWM is also hitting its head on its 200DMA.  And, we have a rather stretched b-wave count on both charts right into this region.

High b-Wave Wed Apr 13th 2016

With the IWM pointing the way, it seems that we are close to topping out in a b-wave within wave iv.  As I have mentioned before, we will sometimes see a market miss its ideal target in a 3rd wave, only to come back to tag it in a b-wave within wave iv.  And, that is how I am counting this rally in both the IWM and in the SPX. This means that we likely have a few more squiggles left to this rally, and then I expect to head back down to at least the 2027SPX level, which is the 1.

4th Waves Are Tough Mon Apr 11th 2016

Our primary perspective remains that we are in a 4th wave in the market.  Within that 4th wave, it is quite possible that we have completed the b-wave at today’s high, as shown in the attached 3 minute ES chart.  Moreover, we have what does count as a micro 5 wave move down off that b-wave high. So, in very simple terms, as long as today’s high is not breached, I am looking for us to be heading down in a c-wave into tomorrow to complete our wave iv within the next day or two.