Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.


C-Wave Likely Begun Mon Sep 26th 2016

We came into this week expecting downside resolution, and it seems we have started with a bang.  Based upon our weekend analysis, we were looking for how the 1st wave down off the highs would take shape to tell us where our target for the c-wave down will most likely strike.  For now, I still do not have a completed 5 waves down.  But, as you can see from the attached 5 minute SPX chart, this is how I think we can see it complete over the next few days.

Topping Region Thu Sep 22nd 2016

With the continued upside today, the market is in the final stages of what we would consider the (c) of b wave.  As the micro count now stands, it looks as though the 2183SPX region will be tested, and maybe even slightly exceeded to complete this (c) of b.  Our primary expectation at that time would be a c-wave to the downside, pointing to our blue box below.  As you may have noted, I had to enlarge that box higher because of how high we have traveled in this b-wave.  You see, the .

Upside Follow Through Wed Sep 21st 2016

The market has been quite nice of late to provide us with a relatively straight forward b-wave structure, which has me a bit worried.  But, as long as we do not see a drop below 2150SPX tomorrow, I think we should be going up this week to complete the (c) wave of the green b-wave. As you can see from the chart, if the market turns down from the 2162/63SPX region, and breaks 2150, it suggests that the (b) wave of the b-wave will turn much more complex, as shown in the alternative yellow count.

Whipsaw Was The Order Of The Day Mon Sep 19th 2016

While the title to my weekend update was “Whipsaw Will Be the Flavor of the Week,” it certainly was the order of the day today. Our primary pattern has the consolidation today counted as a b-wave within the (a) wave of the larger b-wave, as you can see from the attached 5 minute and 60 minute charts.  As long as we remain over 2122ES, this will be the primary perspective. However, as I noted in an update earlier in the day, many of you may remember back to January and February.

Time to Consider the Options Thu Sep 15th 2016

While we seem to have begun that rally I noted I wanted to see last night, the market has still not made things exceptionally clear.  You see, I have 3 potentials I am tracking, with the larger green b-wave still being my primary count.  But, the question is how does that b-wave complete. As I noted yesterday, should the market make a lower low, I will have to move my labeling to the right.

Still in Search of a Standard b-Wave Wed Sep 14th 2016

While the current count has the bottom to the a-wave/alt-ii in place, the market has a micro count now that can take us a bit lower in the SPX, which would then cause me to move that bottoming over. However, if we hold this low, and rally strongly, then I will still maintain the current count as shown. Ultimately, there are two things I want to point out.

Both Sides Will Be Suckered Tue Sep 13th 2016

With the market pulling back quite deeply today, it is rather clear that this is likely a b-wave, as per our 60 minute chart.  In fact, I believe we will be stuck in this region between 2110-2180SPX for the remainder of the week as this b-wave takes further shape. You see, the job of the b-wave is to sucker in the bulls near the highs, and then sucker in the bears near its lows.  It will shake both sides of the market as it moves back and forth between its support and resistance.

Upside Set Up Remains In Place Thu Sep 8th 2016

While the futures have seen a slight undercut of the September ES contract 2177ES level, the SPX had an equivalent support at the 2177 level (which I posted early this morning) which is still being held.  So, the upside pattern still remains intact, as long as these supports hold.  For two months now, we have been meandering in the same region, and the market has refused to tip its hand.

Upside Set Up In Place Wed Sep 7th 2016

As the market has been meandering within this region for months, we finally have a minor upside set up in place right now, which is pointing right to the top of our resistance region on our 60 minute chart. As you can see from the attached 5 minute ES chart, as long as we remain over today’s pullback low just over 2177ES, the market is setting up to rally to at least 2195ES for wave 3 in this minor set up, with the potential to test the 2200SPX in a full 5 waves up.

Market Hiding Its Immediate Intention Tue Sep 6th 2016

Today, the market moved higher to complete the structure off last week’s low.  The question now is what that structure represents?  As you can see from the attached SPX 60 minute chart, this rally has either completed the green (b) wave, or is the blue wave (i) for wave 1 of iii of (3) in the more immediately bullish blue count. However, I am unable to discern which is the more “correct” pattern, until we start to see the next drop.