Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

 

This May Get Even More Complex Thu Apr 2nd 2020

As I noted earlier today, sometimes the market provides you too many alternatives and you simply have to sit back and allow the market to fill in a bit more before it gives you a high probability structure.  I think we are there now with the micro count. In the bigger structure, my primary perspective remains we are in a whipsaw regime within a larger degree b-wave of wave [4].  And, it has certainly been true to form when it comes to our whipsaw expectation.

Lesson In Corrective Structures Wed Apr 1st 2020

With the market following through to the downside as we generally expected in this set up, we are approaching an important cross roads which will determine if we have a lower low yet to be seen, which is our primary count, or if the bottom has already been struck.

Downside Target Has Not Changed Tue Mar 31st 2020

There are times when the market provides clarity in its micro structure, and there are times it does not.  While we were dropping in wave [3] over the past two weeks, the market provided us so much clarity that we were able to call almost every twist and turn we saw during that time.  However, if my expectations are correct, and we are in wave [4] now, then it would be expectation that we would see a lack of clarity in the structure.

I’m Feelin Blue Mon Mar 30th 2020

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I am going to begin this update by again warning that we are likely in a whipsaw regime in the market.  You see, my primary perspective views us as being in wave [4] of this c-wave decline off the February highs.  And, what we know of 4th waves is that they are the most variable wave within the Elliott Wave 5-wave structure.

From Support To Resistance In Three Days Thu Mar 26th 2020

Again, I find this market simply amazing.  Just a few days ago we were down at the depths of wave [3], and three days later, we have struck our minimum target for wave [4] . . . which was over 400 points higher.  Just amazing. And, as I warned before, many are now turning very bullish with the expectation that the bottom has certainly been struck.

This Market Is Amazing Wed Mar 25th 2020

It was just a few days ago when I had to calm people down in our trading room and explain that the world was not coming to an end, and that it was not highly likely that the bull market off the 2009 lows was coming to an end either.  Yet, as we were bottoming in wave [3], I saw more posts about us going sub-2000 than I have hair on my head.

This will NOT Be Easy Tue Mar 24th 2020

With the rally today taking us up towards the 2450SPX region, I think the probabilities have swung to us having begun wave [4].  And, while that is positive news, it also tells us that we are heading into a very treacherous trading environment.  And, you MUST recognize that we are in a new environment. Up until now, we have been identifying turning points in the market rather well, and many of our members have profited quite nicely from those turning points.

Building A Reversal Mon Mar 23rd 2020

Over the weekend, I noted that the market still seems set up to extend this wave [3] to the downside into our target box on the 60-minute chart.  Today, we hit the bottom of that box.  Can we now expect to reverse? Well, starting with the positive divergences we are seeing on the 60-minute chart, I have to assume that anyone who is overstaying their welcome on the short side may find themselves on the wrong side of a strong reversal once it takes hold.

Follow Through Will Be Important Thu Mar 19th 2020

As we have been outlining, the indications have been developing that the market was ready for a bounce.  And, with each spike lower, those indications were growing. As it stands now, we have a pretty good initial indication that the market has bottomed in wave [3], but we will need upside continuation TOMORROW in order to confirm this to be the case.

Do We Have A Bottom? Wed Mar 18th 2020

Last night, I outlined a set up in the SPX which was pointing us down to the 2265-2350 region.  Today, the market followed through to the downside and struck a low of 2280SPX.  And, based upon the futures action thus far, we may have finally completed our wave [3] of the c-wave. Now, to be brutally honest, the structure would look best with one more lower low, but I am not going to argue with the market if it continues higher into tomorrow.