Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Either You Learn From The Events Of The Past Week, Or You Are Hopeless Sat Sep 16th 2017

As I write my weekly articles about how one should ignore exogenous factors such as news or geo-political events when analyzing the markets, I always get a number of people who will argue with me.  They see a single news event coincide with a directional move in the market and are absolutely convinced that the particular news event was the “obvious” cause of that market move.  They then extrapolate this experience and believe that news and geo-politics are always what drives the markets.

Still Bullish Above Support Thu Sep 14th 2017

While I can make an “argument” that we have a truncated top in place, I would suggest it is of low probability at this time.  Rather, it still looks like the market is setting up to target the 2507SPX region. With the consolidation we have seen the last few days resolving down this morning, it suggests that we have completed wave 4 at the lows this morning.  From that low, I can count a micro 5 waves up, followed by what seems to be a sideways wave ii consolidation.

No Topping Signal Yet Wed Sep 13th 2017

While there was a rumor that the stock market was open today, I am not sure I actually saw evidence of that fact.  The market simply meandered within the same region, not providing any strong clues as to whether we have a top in place. My theory at this time is that we still will try to reach a bit higher, ideally to the 2507SPX region.  The manner in which we get there is the question.

Market Is Not Giving An Inch Tue Sep 12th 2017

With the continued push higher today, I have now made the ending diagonal count my primary count, but I cannot say that with high confidence, and I will explain why below. As I have noted time and again, shorting is never advisable during bull markets because surprises always come to the upside, and the market likely still has a date with the 2600SPX region.  But, I still think we will see a bigger pullback before that rally to 2600SPX begins in earnest.

Testing All-time High Mon Sep 11th 2017

With the break out through resistance overnight, the market has made that yellow ending diagonal count a strong contender. At this point in time, I cannot say that I have a “preference” between a higher b-wave count, or the ending diagonal.  Rather, much will depend on if we top today or tomorrow, or if the market pulls back again and then attacks the 2500SPX region. The issue with ending diagonals is that they can mirror a complex triple-three combination b-wave rally.

At A Turning Point Thu Sep 7th 2017

The market is at a turning point right now, and the next trading day or two will likely decide the next 20+ point move.  Yet, this update is going to be focused on brevity, since the analysis remains the same. Our resistance is initially at 2468SPX, and as long as we remain below that level, pressure remains down.  The targets for downside begin in the 2420SPX region, which would hold support in the purple triangle count on the 60-minute chart.

Market Pushes Us To The Limit Wed Sep 6th 2017

We use our Fibonacci Pinball method to provide more structure to the Elliott Wave patterns we follow.  And, when the market begins to break through the standard turning points identified within Fibonacci Pinball, it is an early warning that an impulsive structure may very well fall apart. Yesterday provided us with the perfect example.  As we followed the market down to where a wave iii of 3 would normally target (1.

Can We Hold Immediate Downside Pressure? Tue Sep 5th 2017

Our financial markets are non-linear systems, which means there is no certainty in the market, despite what many attempt to tell you.  Therefore, markets are all about probabilities.  And, your trading should be focused upon placing the greatest probabilities on your side of the trade.  Sometimes, the markets will provide clear clues, and other times they will not.  During August, the market provided some of the clearest signs I have seen in quite some time despite the whipsaw we experienced.

We Are In Our Target Box Thu Aug 31st 2017

When we were down in the 2430SPX region and looking for a rally to take us to the 2465-2475SPX region, we were looking for a standard 5-wave structure to give us a high probability topping point for a b-wave.  Yet, that is not exactly what we have gotten since we began this rally on Tuesday.  And, that is what led me to post that warning in my analysis last night about the potential to even head higher than our target.  It was all based upon the structure within the rally up this week.

We Have Arrived At Our Target – Now What? Wed Aug 30th 2017

When I questioned whether we can rally into the holiday weekend early as the market was down in the 2430SPX region on Monday, many answered my question with a simple “NOPE.”  But, the pattern we were following strongly suggested that the market can rally from that region up towards the 2460-2475SPX region.  And, today, we have moved up right to our target in strong fashion.