Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.


Tomorrow Will Be Important Tue Jul 26th 2016

The market has been meandering within our signal region between 2159-2192SPX.  And, the break of that region will likely provide us with the near term direction. For quite some time I have been noting that I have no desire to be shorting this market, since we are setting up a 3rd wave higher.  And, I still feel that way.  But, we are still unsure of where wave I of wave (3) has completed, or if it has at all. I want to show you the IWM chart, which has been quite a nice guide in 2016.

Fed Will Be The Catalyst Mon Jul 25th 2016

Even though the market did provide us with the start of what may be a 5 wave decline, it does not change our overall perspective between 2159 and 2192SPX.  As I have been noting, we need a sustained break of 2159SPX to suggest a bigger pullback is in progress, whereas a strong break out over 2192SPX suggests we are heading directly to 2350SPX for wave iii of (3).

Turn Down In Progress Thu Jul 21st 2016

I may be a little premature with this post, but assuming we see a strong break down below 2159SPX, then I am going to begin tracking our downside set ups. I have modified the chart in anticipation of the break down below 2159, but, again, I may be premature.  Should we see a rally over the last highs, I will be placing the more bullish blue count where it was previously.

Support Still Holding Tue Jul 19th 2016

I noted last night that we needed to break at least the 2154SPX level to even begin consideration of the downside potential.  Thus far, the market has approached the support region, but no break has yet been seen. But, due to the nature of the last pullback, it has opened the door to the much more immediate bullish count, which I am forced to put on the chart and present.

Pressure Remains Up Mon Jul 18th 2016

There is not much more I am able to add to the weekend update, other than what I said earlier today in two Alerts: Upper support is now designated on the chart.  We will need to break below this upper support to begin looking for at least a wave ii, or potentially even the (c) of (2).  But, the manner in which the market declines will give us a better idea of which is playing out.  And, until we break the upper support, the market can still choose to begin the wave iii of (3) towards 2300.

Still No Signal of a Top as we Continue to Push Higher Thu Jul 14th 2016

Today we continued to extend higher still not giving us any signal that we have even a local top in place in the SPX. So with that I will simply re-post a review of the counts as I posted at the close yesterday as they are all still applicable and relevant with the action that we saw today.

When does a small move make a big difference? Thu Jul 14th 2016

Last night futures broke over the 2144, 2146 & 2148 resistance levels cited for us to get a small C wave down to 2135 in what was hoped to be the start of a wave circle ii. They instead extended to a new nominal high in this move off the June low. While the count for this to still be a (v) of circle i remains valid the relative size of the move off July 6 2065(ES) is causing me to lean more to the "Lake George" count I had where that was circle ii and this is (i) of circle iii (shown in green on the 15min).

Bullish Patterns Still In Charge Wed Jul 13th 2016

SPX - As we approach the topping area I wanted to review the three most viable counts that are in play off of the 1991 low and go over a road map of what we could be expecting once we finally do make at least a local top.  ------------------------ White Count - The white count is my base case at this time and is suggestive that the entire structure off of the 1991 low is a wave 1 within a larger degree wave (3) that will ultimately target in the 2500-2600 area.

SPX Extending Higher & Still Trading Over Support Tue Jul 12th 2016

Today we saw a continued move higher of what I am still preferring to count as an extended wave (iii) of v up off of the 1991 low. This leaves the analysts as posted at the close yesterday relatively unchanged with the exception that I am moving the support level up for wave (iv) which now comes in at the 2136-2123 range.  So with that my base case remains that this move off of that 7/6 low as part of wave v of 1 which is shown in white.

In search of another retrace... Tue Jul 12th 2016

The market is acting relentlessly bullish again, but many indicators and the price pattern are signaling a pending "local top". We are nearly to the .50 Fib extension for the 3rd wave in the larger Intermediate degree (5)th off the Feb low. This is a perfect stopping place for wave i of 3, and we can count a clean 5 waves up post BRexit. The (v)th of that is trying to complete 5 sub-waves up from the 7/6 low, and could get a few more squiggles.