Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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The Easy Part Is Done Thu Sep 24th 2020

With the drop we had into today’s low, the market has now provided us with the minimum number of waves needed to consider the [c] wave down as completed.  Moreover, we even tested the 3200SPX support, as we came up only a few points short of that target. Ideally, I wanted to see the market move below 3200SPX to bolster my expectations for the green count. Keep in mind that the .

Can We Get That Lower Low? Wed Sep 23rd 2020

Trading for the dreaded lower low is not always easy.  But, thus far, the market is signaling it wants to provide that to us this time. To be brutally honest, I really have no clean way to consider the bottom as being in for the [c] wave we have been tracking.  Moreover, the market has turned down from the resistance I highlighted yesterday, after providing us with the standard overlap we see with waves 4 and 1 in an ending diagonal.

Not Making It Easy Tue Sep 22nd 2020

Throughout the last few market days, I have been outlining the issues I have been having with the internal structure within this decline.  It did not provide us with the standard 1-2, i-ii downside set up, nor did it follow through in appropriate Fibonacci Pinball fashion.  So, I began discussing the ending diagonal potential yesterday. Today, I think the market has made it clear that if we are going to get that lower low below the 3200 level, it will take shape as an ending diagonal.

Break Down Mon Sep 21st 2020

I don’t think I have to tell you that the market decided to take the more direct path to the 3200SPX region, as it made that abundantly clear with today’s action. Before I go into my expectation as we look towards tomorrow, I want to repost something I wrote early today: “I have spent a good part of this morning trying to figure out this downside pattern in the ES, as the structure is really not the usual Fib Pinball structure.

Good News And Bad News Thu Sep 17th 2020

Since I cannot ask you which do you want first, I am going to give you the good news first. We have been looking for a set up to points us to a test of the 3200 region for about a week now, and the ES has just about given us that set up, at least from a Fibonacci Pinball perspective. While the market topped out a bit short of the ideal target for the [b] wave, we do have what is reasonably considered to be a 5 wave decline overnight into the larger degree pivot we have had on our ES chart.

Stretching For Higher Wed Sep 16th 2020

With the ES/SPX pushing higher overnight, it seems to still be stretching for the target box for an appropriate [b] wave rally.  And, thus far, we still have come up a bit short. So, I will continue to warn not to front run a potential reversal while in a bull market.  Therefore, we need to break today’s intra-day low in the 3393ES region before we can even consider the potential that the [b] wave rally has topped out.

Several Paths With One Expectation Tue Sep 15th 2020

As I have said so often, corrective waves are quite variable and often take many twists and turns.  Most of the time, we can see the potentials before they happens, and sometimes we cannot.  That is why I have noted in the past that trying to navigate a specific path within a corrective structure is like attempting to throw Jello for distance. While 4th wave are definitely the most difficult of corrective structure, 2nd waves are a bit easier . . . at least in my experience.

Bigger Picture Remains Intact Mon Sep 14th 2020

For those of you that have been focused upon the bigger picture, not much has really changed based upon today’s rally.  I still think we are setting up a test of the 3200SPX region in the coming week or so and the only question is one of “micro-path.” As I outlined today, we have a possible 1-2, i-ii downside structure for a [c] wave decline.  And, normally, I would be quite eager to short this type of a set up.

Back Where We Started Again Thu Sep 10th 2020

Today we saw the market trade slightly lower in the pre-market trading however the structure down into those lows was quite sloppy and overlapping. This was not indicative of what we needed to see as the start of the next larger leg to the downside breaking back below last week’s lows. Shortly after the open, we saw the market move higher before topping out just over the overnight high before moving lower re-testing the overnight lows.

Lessons I Learned In My Career Wed Sep 9th 2020

When I was young and first starting out in trading, if the market would come to a point at which I thought it would turn, I was often quite impulsive and impetuous, so I would aggressively short at that point.  And, since I was following analysis being provided by others, I would often find myself in the hole with those short trades, as the analysis I was following often turned out to be wrong (there are a lot of bad analysts out there).