Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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I May Be A Stubborn SOB Thu Jul 9th 2020

I know everyone is expecting downside in the market because we have gone much further to the upside than anyone expected - well . . . other than us. (smile)   But, simply because the market CAN pullback does not necessarily mean it will just yet. I have been harping all week about how important the 3115SPX support is to my work.  You see, within a bullish structure, the wave [iii] of 3 takes us to the 1.00-1.236 extension of waves 1 and 2, and wave [iv] of 3 pulls back to the .618-764 extension.

How About That Weather We Are Getting? Wed Jul 8th 2020

Yea, I know the title has nothing to do with the market, but there really is nothing much for me to update about the market action.  First, the SPX is still over 3115SPX support.  Second, while it has probed deeper today, the IWM is also over its relevant support of 138.50.  And, until those levels are solidly broken, I cannot yet adopt an immediate bearish perspective, especially since the decline in the SPX, thus far, has been quite corrective.

Bulls Are Running Out Of Room Tue Jul 7th 2020

With the RTY being unable to capitalize on its micro upside bullish set up, we clearly have to remain on our toes in the market for the rest of the week.  Yet, we are still over support, and upside patterns still remain on the chart.  But, the bulls are running out of room. As I have reiterated many times this week, the 3115SPX and 138.60IWM supports are the key points for me to still consider higher levels within the blue wave structures I have presented on the charts.

Still Over Support Mon Jul 6th 2020

For months, I have been giving the market the opportunity to prove it wants to rally towards the 3400SPX region to complete a nicer Fibonacci Pinball 5-wave structure off the March lows.  And, though the market whipsawed over the past month, it has still retained that potential to take us up towards that 3400SPX region for the blue wave [5]. Over the weekend, I outlined my expectation for another push higher before the market will likely make a decision.

What If Mom And Dad Disagree? Fri Jul 3rd 2020

This morning, Arkady posted an important explanation as to what someone should consider when our analysts seem to disagree about a wave count.  And, I wanted to post what he said and add to it in an update to our entire membership. His first point was to zoom out and look at the larger degree time scale.  Implicitly, it means that when you zoom out, you will likely see that there is agreement on a wave degree higher, but the smaller degree count may be about which they disagree.

Much More Clarity Thu Jul 2nd 2020

With the gap up today, I wanted to send out a note to the entire membership, as it seems the market has made the current scenario MUCH clearer in the near term. As we noted earlier this week, the move over the 3060ES region opened the door to much higher potential.  And, once the market moved through the 3106ES region, it suggests that we could attain the 3180-3230 region next.  So, we are now approaching that resistance.

Market Decision Has Been Slow In Coming Wed Jul 1st 2020

While we have had several opportunities for the market to make a decision regarding its near term direction, it has continued to present us with another twist or turn in order for it to avoid making a decision this week.  I know I must sound like a broken record when I say this over and over, but knowing the market is potentially in a corrective structure tells us to use caution until the market provides clearer indications as to its next larger move.

Market Can Either Go Up Or Down Mon Jun 29th 2020

I know I am providing my update early today, but I want to reiterate that the market is likely going to make an important decision about the next trending 100-200 point move quite imminently.  So, I wanted to reiterate my parameters again. The title of this article is the most common comment I get about Elliott Wave analysis by those who really do not understand it to its core.  And, it certainly feels like the comment is applicable at this time.

One Additional Point Thu Jun 25th 2020

I simply HATE surprises from the market, which is why I am constantly running calculations to see where I can be wrong in my primary assessment.  And, I have found one I need to point out to you before the close. With the market unable to drop to the lower target region thus far, it has really made the bigger blue wave [5] rally from here quite unlikely.   Next, the rally for a [c] wave should be an impulsive structure.

Everyone Loves Jello Thu Jun 25th 2020

As I so often say during corrective structures, trying to track the micro count within a corrective structure is like trying to throw Jello for distance. Yet, we seem to be doing pretty well of late. In the last half of the day yesterday and through the overnight session, the market played out in an almost perfect Fibonacci Pinball pattern by rallying back to the 3055ES resistance region, and then dropping to the target we had for wave [v] of iii in the 3006ES region.