Market Update

Avi Gilburt

Each evening Avi Gilburt provides in-depth Elliott Wave analysis on the emini S&P 500, with occasional coverage of the U.S. Dollar, VIX, oil (USO), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's latest market update, along with his intraday "wave alerts" and live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Large Pullback Thu Apr 30th 2015

When metals are truly in a bull market, the retracements are usually so small that they do not allow one to board the train.  Clearly, we are not in a bull market.  Furthermore, I am eve questioning if we see a lower low in both the GLD and silver.  For now, as long as they both hold over their prior lows, we have an appropriate 1-2, i-ii set up in both those chart.

No Break Out Leads To A Break Down Thu Apr 30th 2015

It seems all the concern we have been speaking of since the weekend has been quite warranted.  But, let's try to stay focused on the bigger picture.  Nothing has changed on the bigger picture in the IWM.  In fact, we are now getting a VERY "healthy" c-wave down in wave ii.  Note the MACD on the daily chart.  So, while I don't think this selling is done yet, and it could still take us a few more days, I still think the bigger picture has not changed.

Another Failed Breakout Set Up? Wed Apr 29th 2015

When this many breakout set ups fail, it does leave you questioning whether a deeper retracement is in the cards before the market is primed for this rally.  And, today, we had yet another breakout set up, and the market failed to capitalize.  So, I am becoming very cautious now. As I have been saying time and again, the initial confirmation for that next larger rally phase is a 5 wave moved up, followed by a corrective 3 wave pullback, with follow through over the high of the initial 5 wave move up.

Yet Another Breakout Set Up Tue Apr 28th 2015

With the IWM finally striking out target box today, we have a nice a-b-c, wave (2) flat in place.  And, once it struck that box, it lifted off that target like someone touching a hot stove.  This is what the start to the heart of a 3rd wave should react like. But, what we still need is follow through and confirmation.

Breakout Set Up - Modification Tue Apr 28th 2015

I would like to modify that last update slightly.  That small consolidation this morning was really too small to rely upon it as a wave ii.  So, I have to move up the break out level by .60 on GLD . . it will take a break out over 117.60 to signal that this is breaking out in a wave iii, and the stop for that break out would be just below 116.20.  Just trying to be a little more careful.  Until that break out is seen, I am still looking for a wave ii of somewhat "normal" size.

Break Out Set Up Tue Apr 28th 2015

Allow me to show you a break out set up you can buy in GLd should we see a pullback now.  Normally, I don't favor buying a break out, but this one is nicely set up for it should we see the GLd pullback to the blue box CORRECTIVLEY!!  Should we see that pullback in a wave ii, and the mrket then takes out the high of wave I, you may buy that break out and use a stop of about $1 below the break out point.

IWM and SPX Have Different Micro Stories Mon Apr 27th 2015

With the pullback in the SPX/ES from the new highs today, the market was not able to sustain a clear 3rd wave break out, nor has it broken below the upper support at 2092ES.  But, as we noted over the weekend, the larger degree upper support in the ES resides between 2092ES-2100ES, with the lower part of the upper support region resideng at 2080ES.

On the cusp of breaking out? Thu Apr 23rd 2015

While not a confirmed breakout just yet, equities are trying to follow the script so far for a strong rally from here into next month in our expected 3rd wave. Price has yet to take out the February high so far, but if we do see a sustained break above there, I think that we will likely see price head to 2138 - 2140 (SPX) next as wave 3 of iii shown on my chart. This should be accompanied by a higher reading on the MACD than the previous peaks in April for even better confirmation.

Can We Finally Break Out? Wed Apr 22nd 2015

  When the market has a strong break out set up (as we had last night), and fails to take advantage of that set up, one has to take notice.  When the market develops a secondary break out set up (as we had early this morning), and fails to take advantage of that set up as well, one has to take greater notice.  And, when the IWM is lagging as much as it has, then, taken all together, some concern has to be resonating.

3rd Wave Set Up Tue Apr 21st 2015

3rd Wave Set Up Well, here we are again.  The market has carved out what we can view as a potential set up to gap up and run strong for the next month. But, having the set up and seeing follow through are clearly two different things.  As I noted last night, there are still issues I have with the IWM’s overall smaller micro pattern, but the larger pattern is still quite bullish.