Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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Divergent Markets Thu Jul 12th 2018

While the pullback has certainly continued in the IWM, the SPX has squeezed higher today to make a higher high in the a-wave.  But, overall, I cannot say that it changes my perspective much. On the larger degree scales, I still view the market as being in wave v of its 3rd wave off the 2009 lows.  And, the manner in which we have been developing over the last few months suggest we are in wave (i) of wave (5) of the wave v of 3.

Pullback Likely In Progress Wed Jul 11th 2018

With the RTY breaking overnight support, it has become likely that the retrace we were expecting once we approached the 2800SPX region is in progress. As I noted earlier this morning, the easy part of the market action has now completed, and we will likely be in a whipsaw phase in the coming month or so.

Tracking A “Topping” Tue Jul 10th 2018

As the market approaches the 2800SPX region, our assumption was that we are likely setting up a topping of sorts.  While my ideal scenario would push us a bit higher than we hit today, especially in the IWM, we have to be on our toes, as it is certainly possible that the market has struck the top of the a-wave in the SPX. The problem that I have if the SPX has topped is that the IWM has not completed its ideal structure for the 3rd wave of its wave v.

Market Chugging Along Mon Jul 9th 2018

With today’s continued rally, we are approaching the completion for wave 3 of v in the IWM, and the a-wave of v in the SPX.   So, I am expecting a little higher before these wave structures complete over the next day or so. Once these structures complete, we should see a multi-day pullback/consolidation.  That would represented the b-wave in the SPX, and the 4th wave of v in the IWM.

Looking For Resolution Thu Jul 5th 2018

All we saw today is simply more sideways action, with the SPX tracing out what certainly “looks” like corrective action to the upside and downside. Normally, when I see corrective action on the way up, I would automatically be looking for this pattern to resolve lower.

SPX Is Such A Mess Mon Jul 2nd 2018

As I tried to explain over the weekend, while there is still potential that SPX is in a standard impulsive structure for its wave (5) (yellow count), it is just as likely that this wave (5) takes the shape of an ending diagonal. But, as I also explained, due to the overlapping structures in the SPX, there are so many potential counts I am tracking, that I cannot suggest one has a significantly higher probability over another, just based upon the SPX chart.

Initial signs of bottoming Thu Jun 28th 2018

The market started off initially lower this morning, making a new low on the week as anticipated. Price quickly found support at the minimum expected retrace target of 2691 SPX though, as the .500 retrace. Since then, a decent bounce has formed that has crossed the initial signal level to suggest a possible bottom forming. The next step toward confirmation is a break back above yesterday's high at 2747 SPX.

Downside not complete Wed Jun 27th 2018

The market started off initially higher after the open, but held the resistance cited this morning and turned strongly back down into the close. Therefore, price continues to follow the red path as wave (c) of ii still in progress. Following the red count, today's high should have completed wave iv of (c), with price now working on wave v of (c). Under that assumption, 2691.50 should be the minimum target before wave v of (c) completes.

Not out of the woods yet Tue Jun 26th 2018

The market traded modestly higher today, following expectations for further upside off yesterday's low. However, price remains below key resistance that still needs to be cleared in order to assume that a bottom is already in place for blue wave (ii) of iii or red wave ii of the ending diagonal 5th. If ES can manage a sustained break above 2743 ES, then it begins to dramatically improve odds that a bottom has already be struck.

Delayed flight Thu Jun 21st 2018

The market traded lower today, but for now is holding above the low made earlier this week. Therefore it is still possible to count a wave (ii) of iii bottom in place as shown in blue, with a i-ii start to wave (iii) of iii now. However, a move back back above the overnight high at 2785 ES is needed to strongly suggest that price is breaking out in wave iii of (iii) next.