Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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(c) Wave Follow-Through Thu Apr 20th 2017

The set up was certainly in place, and the only question was if the market was going to capitalize: For now, I am going to look higher until the market proves otherwise.  That means I am giving this until tomorrow morning to prove it has a bullish intent for the (c) wave of green b-wave rally by a strong gap up, for which 3rd waves are known.  With today’s 20+ point rally, it strongly suggests that we are in the heart of the 3rd wave of the (c) wave.

4th Waves Are Not Easy Wed Apr 19th 2017

The market is going to have to make a decision very soon, and it may come as early as tomorrow.  The current set up has us in a potential 1-2 structure off Friday’s low, with the drop today off the high potentially being a c-wave in wave 2 of the (c) wave rally we ideally want to see take hold.

Near-term bullish setup remains intact Tue Apr 18th 2017

After following the micro ABC corrective path down from yesterday's high that we were tracking in the trading room, the market held where it needed to for our near-term bullish blue count as a 1-2 setup off the recent April low. Since then, it appears that price has staged another micro 5 waves up off today's low, which can count as wave (1) of circle 3 under the blue count.

Bulls given another chance Mon Apr 17th 2017

We saw a change of character from the market today, with price actually managing some sustained upside and being able to clear initial resistance. Therefore, I will maintain some skepticism still based on the false starts that we saw last week, the blue path is still very much alive and gaining in probability again that can take price back near the April high in wave c of a larger (b)-wave flat.

Bulls Being Pushed Thu Apr 13th 2017

As I have been reiterating for some time, as long as we remain over 2330SPX, I have to view this pullback as a (b) wave within the larger green b-wave structure.  While the market is continually pushing lower in an overlapping fashion, and pushing the bulls backs against the wall in this structure, we still have no sustained break below support.

Bulls struggling but not yet defeated Wed Apr 12th 2017

The market traded lower today, but so far has managed to hold above yesterday's low. Therefore, the potential 1-2 setup higher as the start of wave c of (b) remains technically valid still. However, the bounce that we've seen so far off today's low is far from inspiring, and leaves me feeling much less confident that we are going to see follow through immediately higher from here. For that reason, we should look at some of the alternatives, which have already been discussed.

New setup for the c-wave of (b) Tue Apr 11th 2017

The market warned us this morning that it would likely head down to test lower support when it did not take the opportunity to breakout under the possible bullish setup last night, and sure enough we got a quick drop shortly after the open. With price holding in our 2340.50 - 2332.

Don’t You Just Love 4th Waves!? Mon Apr 10th 2017

With the inability to strongly rally today, the market has left several options on the table.  And, yes, this is quite typical of 4th waves, and especially b-waves within 4th waves. In the bigger picture, as I noted over the weekend, as long as we hold 2330SPX, I would like to see a rally take hold to take us towards 2400SPX in the green b-wave.  While a break down below 2330SPX is not dispositive of us already being in the c-wave of wave (iv), it does make it much more likely.

Setting Up For A (c) Wave Rally Thu Apr 6th 2017

After I published my analysis yesterday, the market made its decision in providing us an expanded b-wave flat, which is not the most common of patterns.  But, what it ordinarily suggests is that the market is trying to go higher, which is often a bullish indication, even within a corrective pattern. The rally today has not exactly been the most impulsive structure off the lows.

Fourth Wave Shenanigans? Wed Apr 5th 2017

In the trading room yesterday, I posted that I am surprised how well behaved this 4th wave had been acting.  I was surprised that we had not been given any truly complex structures to deal with, especially during a b-wave.  Well, it seems I spoke too soon. With the rally we had today, the market has given us a complex structure which we now have to navigate.