Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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Wave iii Could Complete By Tomorrow Tue Jul 25th 2017

With the breakout today through 2475SPX, the market has told us that wave iii has not yet completed.  Moreover, as long as the market holds over the 2474/75SPX region, I still expect us to be able to strike the 2486SPX region for wave iii, and it could complete tomorrow. Going back to our ideal structure, I am still expecting a wave iv and v to take us higher towards 2500SPX.

How Do We Complete Wave (3)? Mon Jul 24th 2017

With today’s action, the market may be tipping its hand to having completed wave iii already with a truncated wave 5 of (v) of iii at the end of the day on the 20th of the month.  While that is only my alternative count at this time, I want to at least bring that potential to your attention. My primary count still views us as being in wave 5 of (v) of iii, with an ideal target in the 2486SPX region.  Within that count, today represented a 2nd wave pullback within wave 5.

Mr. Trump: You May Not Want To Take Credit For The Stock Market Just Yet Sat Jul 22nd 2017

Stock market is still bullish If you have followed my analysis through the years, you would know that I have correctly been steadfastly bullish the stock market for quite some time.   In fact, I was one of the very few who expected the market to rocket higher even after Donald Trump won the election last year.  And, now, we are approaching the S&P500 target in the 2500SPX region we expected to strike in 2017.

One More Squiggle Hits The Target Thu Jul 20th 2017

Yesterday afternoon, I noted the following in my Market Update: as long as pullbacks hold over 2463/65SPX, I am still expecting one more 4-5 to take shape before wave iii completes, and it may take us until the end of the week to complete it. Today, the market topped in wave 3 of (v) of iii of 5 of (V) of (3), and provided us a pullback for wave 4. As I write this update, I am uncertain as to whether wave 4 has completed, and it can still see one more loop back down towards the 2465SPX region.

Remember, This Is A Bull Market Wed Jul 19th 2017

With the low holding yesterday, the market headed up towards our target for today in the 2475SPX region.  The question now is how extended this move wants to become.  The micro structure suggests that this is only wave 3 in wave (v) of iii.  That means the higher wave 3 goes, the more likely it becomes that we may even be able to make it to the 2480-2485SPX region in wave (v).

Looking For At Least One More Rally Tue Jul 18th 2017

With the market breaking below 2455SPX this morning, it suggests that wave (iii) is likely done, and we may have even completed wave (iv) today. As long as today’s low holds, I have a target for the next rally in the 2475SPX region.  That is where waves (i) and (v) would be just about equal, and where the 2.618 extension of waves (i) and (ii) reside.  So, for now, that is my next target for this current rally.

Looking For A Minor Top To Be Struck Mon Jul 17th 2017

As I noted over the weekend, I still would like to see several 4th and 5th waves playing out over the coming weeks before this market sees its top in wave (3) off the February 2016 lows.  Currently, I still think we are working on wave (iii) of iii of 5 of (3).  And, until we break below 2455SPX, I still think the market can strike the 2470SPX region for wave (iii).

Grind Will Continue Until Shorts Run Out Of Money Thu Jul 13th 2017

After we see the heart of a 3rd wave take hold, as we believe we have seen yesterday, the market then enters into a grind up stage to complete waves 3, 4 and 5.  As you can see from the attached 5 minute chart, as long as the market now remains over the 2436SPX level, pressure will continue to remain up.

Market Passed The Test Wed Jul 12th 2017

As noted yesterday, the market was going to be imminently tested.  And, it passed its test in typical 3rd wave fashion by providing us with a gap up through the downtrend channel. With the current action seen, my expectation is that we are likely going to subdivide higher this week, and potentially into next week as well, as long as we remain over the 2437SPX region.

Market Will Be Tested Tomorrow Tue Jul 11th 2017

With the market pullback today, we have a completed i-ii, 1-2 in the bullish set up for wave 5 of (v) of (3).  But, with that set up, it means the market is just about out of room to break out to the upside.  In fact, I would need to see a strong confirmation as early as tomorrow, with a potential gap up over the downtrend line on the 60 minute chart.