Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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3100ES Is Still Important Short Term Support Mon Nov 18th 2019

With the market still remaining over 3100 support, we still have no indications that the top has been struck, despite the market being quite stretched up here.  So, until we actually see a break down below 3100 (which I still want to see this week), I am viewing the market as trying to complete wave (iv) and (v), as shown on the ES chart.  While wave (iv) may have completed at the low today, we can even drop down again and strike the 3100-3106ES support before we rally up in wave (v).

Market Seems To Be Struggling Thu Nov 14th 2019

With the underlying weakness in market breadth quite evident from many of the indicators I track, I literally am wondering what is holding us up here.  Be that as it may, we still have no indications that a top has struck.  Yet, when we finally do see that break of support, I think it will happen quite fast, and could surprise many.  That often happens when price moves this divergent from market breadth.

Still Over Support Wed Nov 13th 2019

It is one thing to have a set up to break support, and it is another thing to actually follow through to break support.  Thus far, the market has retained a set up to break support, but has not followed through to do so. The factor that is making it much tougher to identify a topping structure at this time is that the market has been rallying in a very overlapping manner.  Such overlap is often a signal of corrective action, other than when the market is working on an ending diagonal for a 5th wave.

Overlapping Into The High Tue Nov 12th 2019

With the market pushing higher towards the 3110/15SPX resistance today, the structure has become quite overlapping.  That often suggests that this move higher may be completing as an ending diagonal.  However, as we have discussed over and over, until the market actually breaks support, we have no clear indications a top has yet been struck, despite our expectations for one to be struck.

Consolidation Or Distribution? Mon Nov 11th 2019

That is always the question when the market begins to stall near the highs.  And, to be honest, as I have been posting throughout the last week, another higher high is still well within the realm of probabilities until we are able to break initial support. While I have a potential downside set up outlined in yellow on the attached 3-minute ES chart, please recognize that until we break below today’s low, there is nothing suggesting this will actually trigger.

If You Want Trump Out, You Need To Sell Your Stocks Sat Nov 9th 2019

While reading of the title of this article may cause you to make certain assumptions about what you are about to read, I can assure you that this is not a politically motivated article.  In fact, politics has absolutely nothing to do with the analysis and conclusions presented herein. I want to start with the assumption that we have spoken about so often, and that it is social mood which directs our actions in life, including our willingness to buy stocks.

5th Wave Follow Through Thu Nov 7th 2019

Today, the market followed through in the set up with which it left us at the end of yesterday.  But, the most important point to recognize is that this is likely a 5th of a 5th of a 5th wave.  That points us to a topping structure.  Within this evening’s update, I want to highlight something I posted early this morning: I want to add a note this morning.  It is not often that we see various markets pointing towards a full ripeness for a potential reversal.  We are seeing that now.

Market Holding – Setting Up For A 5th Wed Nov 6th 2019

With the market holding support this far, we have developed what looks to be a micro 5 waves up off today’s low.  And, since the standard structure still calls for a micro 5th wave to complete this rally off the October low, we seem to be developing a micro i-ii set up to complete that last segment of the 5th wave off the October low. Therefore, it makes the analysis rather easy at this time.  As long as today’s low holds, my expectation is to push higher into the end of the week for that 5th wave.

The Dreaded One More High? Tue Nov 5th 2019

There really is not much more for me to add this evening to what I wrote over the weekend and last night.  But, I will note that some of the extremes I was seeing yesterday have gotten a bit more extreme. In the meantime, the market is still holding its support over 3060.

Seeing Some Extremes Mon Nov 4th 2019

While many are being converted to the bullish side of the market due to the price action, I still wish I could join the bulls at these levels, especially since my long-term targets for the SPX are much higher.  But, the structure of the market does not allow me to do so at this time. As I wrote earlier today: The fear of missing out is palpable right now, as the market continues to extend.