Market Update

Avi Gilburt

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Inside day Thu Oct 12th 2017

The market was relatively flat today, staying within the same trading range as yesterday for an inside day. There is still no indication of a local top in place yet without any support broken, and until that happens it is possible to extend a little higher still. If we do see price grind higher, it will likely be as an ending diagonal 5th wave that began off Monday's low, which can stretch to reach the next fib resistance at 2561 SPX from here.

How Much Higher Can We Immediately Expect? Wed Oct 11th 2017

Well, to answer that question honestly, the market has enough waves in place to complete all of wave (iii) already.  But, there is nothing we have seen yet that suggests that wave (iii) has completed.  Moreover, there is also clearly nothing suggesting that this market has topped. While the market has clearly slowed down over the last few days, as we continue to consolidate in this upper region near the highs, the move up off yesterday’s lows looks more corrective than impulsive.

No Sign Yet Upside Is Done Tue Oct 10th 2017

With the market reversing its attempted break out today, we have just been consolidating in this current 10 point region over the last several days.  And, unfortunately, I am running out of ways to say the exact same thing.  Basically, as long as the market holds over the 2532SPX support region, we can still see one more push higher before wave (iii) has completed. A break down sooner rather than later of the 2532SPX level tells us that wave (iv) is already in progress.

Very Boring Day Mon Oct 9th 2017

With the market almost seeming as if it never opened, all we did today (up to the time of my writing this update) was more or less “drift.”  While the extensions we have seen in wave (iii) have been quite strong, I must also recognize that trees do not grow to the sky, and (iv) will follow (iii), at least based upon the math I learned in grade school.

The Grind Continues Thu Oct 5th 2017

The market continued its relentless climb higher today, now reaching the next micro fib resistance at 2551 SPX. Price has still shown no indication of a local top, and until some support breaks may climb even further. However, the slope of this ascent is typically not very sustainable without at least some consolidative action in interim, so it is reasonable to expect some chop even if the uptrend continues.

We Are Left With A Series Of 4’s And 5’s Wed Oct 4th 2017

Yes, the bulls are still in charge, and they will remain in charge as long as the market remains over 2496SPX.  That has not changed.  But, that does not mean we will not see pullbacks along the way, even if the market is destined for higher levels in the more bullish primary count. Before I go into the overall perspective, which also has not changed, I want to present what has changed, and explain why it has changed.

Addressing The Wave (3) Extension Tue Oct 3rd 2017

I have gotten many comments to my analysis about why it was not too long ago that I was looking for the 2360SPX region but now I am looking higher.   So, I wanted to take a moment to explain why and when I had to change perspectives. For those that have been with us for quite some time, you would likely remember that we were calling for the market to “ideally” target the 2537-2611SPX region from the 1800 region.

Will The Market EVER Come Down Again? Tue Oct 3rd 2017

I was reviewing anecdotal sentiment over the internet, and many are starting to post immediate targets of as high as 2700SPX in the coming months.  While I do see the potential for the SPX to approach the 2600SPX region, I think people are starting to get carried away due to the extreme bullish sentiment this market creates when it rallies like it has over the last week. But, yes, the market will come down again, and it will likely come down farther than any believe right now.

No Top In Sight YET Mon Oct 2nd 2017

As the market rallied up to our next target in the 2530SPX region, we can still extend a bit higher even in this current structure. As you can see from the 5 minute chart, we are likely completing a wave iii off the 9/25 lows, and will still likely see a wave iv pullback later this week.  And, as long as the support box for wave iv holds (with ideal support at the 2515SPX region), it sets us up to continue higher later this week towards 2535-2544SPX, depending upon extensions.

How Long Will The Bulls Be In Charge? Thu Sep 28th 2017

Yes, we are still over support.  Yes, the bulls clearly still have the ball.   And, yesterday, the bulls went for a bomb on 1st down from their 20 yard line, and the wide receiver caught it and was tackled at the 9 yard line.  We thought we had a first and goal situation with a 3rd wave break out.