Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

 

More of the Same... A Sideways Grind Thu Apr 11th 2019

Today the SPX continued to grind sideways as it has for the past week. This leaves us watching the same support levels that have been in place for the past several days. As Avi had noted in yesterday's update until the market can give us an impulsive structure breaking below 2840/45 support, we have no clear indication that the b-wave has ended, which still leaves the door open to 3011-40SPX, as discussed many times.

Grinding Sideways For A Week Wed Apr 10th 2019

I want to start this update by reposting something I wrote earlier in the day today: “I have been asked a number of times today as to whether that drop yesterday was 5 waves down.  And, to be honest, it can be.  But, I have to note that my hesitation is because the proportions are not anywhere to be considered as a "clean" 5 down.  Rather, the proportions in SPX seems to be closer to a corrective drop.

No Clear Topping Structure YET Tue Apr 9th 2019

With the market simply grinding sideways for the last week with marginal upside progress, it does seem as though we are losing our upward momentum.  But, this market has had many opportunities to turn down over the last 3+ months and has refused to do so at each twist and turn.  So, I have no clear indications it will do so this time either. In fact, I really cannot make out a clear 5-wave downside structure off the overnight high in the futures (unless we have a truncated 5th wave bottom).

Market Has Yet To Break Support Mon Apr 8th 2019

As the market continues to grind over the 2845SPX support region, there is nothing we have yet seen which suggests that the market has topped out in the b-wave rally we have been tracking for over 3 months. So, unfortunately, there really is nothing more I can add to the weekend update. In short, as long as we remain below 2915SPX, we have enough waves in place to have a completed b-wave.

Another Consolidation Thu Apr 4th 2019

Today, the market simply provided us a consolidation.  The question is of what degree. As far as the bigger perspective, I am still viewing the green as our primary count, with the yellow as the alternative.  My preference for this consolidation would have been for us to test a bit lower into the .382 retracement of wave 3 into the 2845SPX region.  However, the market is being quite stingy with pullbacks.

Market Is Always Taking Us To The Edge Wed Apr 3rd 2019

For those following my work for some time, you would know that the market breaking below 2880SPX back in the fall had me raise cash because it suggested that a 20-30% correction was likely beginning.  And, in December, when we were calling for the market to drop precipitously from the 2800SPX region, I provided a downside support in the 2250-2335SPX region from where I believed we would see a rally back to at least the 2800SPX region.

CRUCIAL POINT FOR MARKET Wed Apr 3rd 2019

Since not everyone saw my video today, I wanted to send this update out to the entire membership so you can understand the crucial point we are now at.  I want to note the alternative I will be tracking and trading IF the market can break out strongly right here rather than roll over into a pullback to 2845SPX.

Consolidation Day Tue Apr 2nd 2019

With the market simply consolidating today, there is really not much more I can add to the analysis presented last night. Support still resides at 2830/40SPX, with resistance at 2875/85SPX.  Today, we finally struck the ideal target we had for this b-wave at 2875SPX, but the market has not provided any indication yet that it has  topped.  In fact, the micro structure still looks to need higher before it completes.

B-Wave Still Has Not Topped Mon Apr 1st 2019

With the market moving through the March 21st high, it has made it clear that this b-wave rally has still not yet topped.  However, nothing from what I wrote in the weekend analysis has really changed in my broader perspective. What has changed is that we no longer have a i-ii downside set up in place.  While I noted several times last week that the market not only has to provide the set up and open the trap door, we needed confirmation that it was going to drop through that trap door.

How Much Longer Can We Levitate Thu Mar 28th 2019

With the structure of the market action off the December 2018 lows quite full to the upside, having come within 6 points of the target we set, and with the technical indicators rolling over, we clearly have to wonder how much longer this market can continue to levitate up here before it finally cracks and provides us with the pullback we still expect. As I mentioned in yesterday’s update, based upon yesterday’s action it looked less likely that the market was ready to immediately break down.