Market Update

Avi Gilburt

Each evening Avi Gilburt provides in-depth Elliott Wave analysis on the emini S&P 500, with occasional coverage of the U.S. Dollar, VIX, oil (USO), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's latest market update, along with his intraday "wave alerts" and live member discussion forum, please login.

 

No confirmation of a bottom... yet. Wed Jul 1st 2015

We can get a completed count for the white (c) of circle iv, but the pattern would/would have look(ed) better with that famous "OML". Getting a (v) of (c) down to 2044 or even 2053 would have been far more ideal and can certainly still happen. But based on the green alts for a bottom in place there is some gap risk in both directions here. I do think we are close to a bottom that should provide a significant bounce back toward the 2100 region and likley to attempt new swing highs.

One more low still likely Tue Jun 30th 2015

The market obliged with a corrective bounce today as hoped, filling out a very nice abc flat structure for wave (iv) in the c-wave off last week's high. In addition to staying below resistance for that wave (iv), probabilities are still supportive of one more low in this decline as wave (v) of c, with an ideal target of roughly 2044 SPX. At this point, it would take a sustained break above 2080 SPX for me to think something more immediately bullish is playing out.

Yes, there is still a valid bullish count left Mon Jun 29th 2015

After a brief bounce this morning, the SPX has since followed through lower as suggested, now below the June low for a proper c-wave. Price has already reached the minimum target for wave c of 4 in the bullish blue count, but the subwave structure up to this point is not suggestive of a bottom yet, since it seems that a 4th and 5th wave are still needed. Therefore, it looks likely that the lower targets between 2056.50 - 2038.

SPX Broached Support – IWM Did Not Thu Jun 25th 2015

Well, maybe I should say that the IWM did not broach support as of yet.  But, for now, it is holding its support in the 127 region. So, this allows me to take a moment and provide a little explanation regarding a question I received today.  Over the weekend, I noted that a break of 2103.67 would invalidate the impulsive pattern.  However, today we broke that level, but we did not invalidate the impulsive pattern.  Let me explain why.

Market Testing Support Again Wed Jun 24th 2015

With the wave (3) top in place, the only question was where the SPX would find support for wave (4).  Last night, my assumption was that we would more likely be testing the 2110 SPX region and that is what we saw today.  While I may have enough waves in place now to consider this downside completed, it would really look best with one more 4-5 in this c-wave of (4), and it may even test the 2105SPX levels.

Is Gold Really Manipulated? Or, Are You Being Manipulated? Wed Jun 24th 2015

The most common complaint I now hear as to why many are fearful of investing in precious metals is that they feel they have been “manipulated to go down.”  While many investors have been scared into believing this perspective by many market pundits as the metals have dropped, I am hoping that investors would maintain an open mind about the true nature of “manipulation” in this market and what really is being manipulated.

Consolidation for Higher Tue Jun 23rd 2015

After the market struck its high yesterday, we seem to be consolidating since.  The main count seems to be that wave v of (3) completed at the last high, and we are currently in wave (4) of green iii of 5 of (c), as presented on the 60 minute chart. While we have enough waves in place to consider wave (4) as completed, I still think we may see one more decline tomorrow into the 2110-2115 region in the SPX to complete wave (4).

Downside Set Up Again Tue Jun 23rd 2015

I noted over the weekend that I did not have a downside set up in metals just yet, and would send out a Market Update when we do have a set up.  Well, the setup has not completed yet, but I did want to at least post a warning that the setup is likely in progress. First, we seem to have a completed a-b-c for wave (2) now on our GLD chart, and I was wrong in not believing it completed last week, as it seems right now that it had.

Bullish Pattern Passed Latest Test Mon Jun 22nd 2015

As noted over the weekend, the market needed to see a big gap up today to maintain the bullish Elliott Wave count we have taking us to the 2150-2175 region next.  And, the market did not disappoint. While, even in the more bullish Elliott Wave perspective, the S&P500 is still presenting a pattern which is going to provide us somewhat limited upside, the IWM is still maintaining a very strong bullish Elliott Wave pattern.

Moving Support Up Thu Jun 18th 2015

I really don’t know how those that trade based upon news do it.  All we have been hearing for weeks is how the market is about to crash.  All we have been hearing is that Greece is another reason one has to fear the market.  I have been told by so many that there is no possibility that the market can move higher from here. And, all this time, my answer has been “just let support break” or “just let a bullish pattern break” and I will join the bear camp.