Market Update

Avi Gilburt

Each evening Avi Gilburt provides in-depth Elliott Wave analysis on the emini S&P 500, with occasional coverage of the U.S. Dollar, VIX, oil (USO), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's latest market update, along with his intraday "wave alerts" and live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Pushing Lower Support Tue Sep 1st 2015

While the expectation for today was down, the market clearly dropped even deeper than I expected.  I did not expect us to drop directly to the target box directly, but we have. The issue with a drop this fast to the target box is that something more bearish may be in play.  If the market should break the 1895SPX level, it makes it much more likely that we revisit the prior lows in the 1867SPX region, and potentially break that to get to the 1835SPX region for a bigger a-wave potential.

Downside Pullback Mon Aug 31st 2015

Without a gap up today, the market made it more likely that we are seeing the (b) wave pullback this week.  As you can see from the 3 minute chart I put out earlier today, the market was unable to move through resistance, and as long as it remains below that resistance, we should be heading lower to complete the a-wave of the red (b) wave.  But, I am going to warn anyone who is attempting to trade this, PLEASE do not trade this with heavy positions.

Do We Have A Bottom Yet? Thu Aug 27th 2015

Well, our primary count was expecting a bottom to an a-wave within this time frame.  While the market has not made it clear it has bottomed, the door is still open for at least another test of the lows seen this week in a 5th wave down. Today, we have been tracking a 5 wave move off the lows, as we noted the expectation for this rally to continue into today from last night’s update.  The .382 retracement of the 3rd wave up resides at the 1947SPX level.

Is It FOMO Time? Wed Aug 26th 2015

Over the weekend, I noted that I was looking lower in the metals and miners.  I also noted that I may have to treat the next lower lows as the final lows due to a “fear of missing out” if my count is off by one wave degree.  So, now that silver and GDX have dropped to lower levels, do I feel the same way? Well, the answer is yes and no.  To be honest, the GDX seems to just be completing its wave v of 3 and just catching up to the GLD which has potentially completed it 3rd wave lower already.

The Elusive One More Low Wed Aug 26th 2015

The question on everyone’s mind is if this decline is over at the low we struck yesterday.  Personally, I feel the count would be a bit forced to consider that low as the low to this a-wave.

Triangle Busted Tue Aug 25th 2015

Sorry for 2 updates tonight, but the triangle busted before the market closed.  So, this leaves us with the 1873SPX level which, if held, still gives us a bigger wave 4 in a flat.  But, below that with follow through below the prior low has a minimum target of 1862SPX for wave 5, but, more likely extending down to 1835, depending upon size of extensions.  That break down means wave 5 is in progress.

What is 1948? Tue Aug 25th 2015

Well, 1948 is when the Hells Angels was founded in California.  It was the year that Babe Ruth died.  It was also the year that Israel was declared as a state. But, for us today, 1948 is the level the market must remain below to set us up to head to lower lows sooner rather than later.  For now, we are likely within a (d) wave of a wave 4 triangle.  This means that this triangle will not likely complete until tomorrow – maybe even right at the open.

True Whipsaw Mon Aug 24th 2015

True Whipsaw As one of most astute members noted today, “the goal of Elliott Wave analysis is to analyze sentiment, not participate in it!”  So, as most of the market seemed to be “freaking out” when the &P500 opened and proceeded to drop to the 1867SPX level (on my platform) in a ridiculously extended 3rd wave, I put out the following update to the entire membership at Elliottwavetrader.net within the first 15 minutes of trading: “We are now hitting the region of the .

Majopr Support Mon Aug 24th 2015

This warrants a full email to the entire membership based upon what I sent out before: We are now hitting the region of the .236 retrace of the larger degree wave 3.  this SHOULD and often does mark a bottoming region for an a-wave.  But, don't be a hero.  allow a reversal to take hold over 1900 before looking at the long side. Again, this is a very dangerous region for the Market, but we are seeing MAJORLY oversold reading and we are in a support region.

Bulls fumbled, bears on offense Thu Aug 20th 2015

With the SPX breaking below the 2064 SPX level cited in yesterday's market update, the red count took the drivers seat today and price drifted lower to reach the initial target region for red wave iii of C at 2043 SPX. We may see a small extension lower to reach the next fib at 2038.75 SPX, but otherwise the pattern suggests that a bounce from this region should materialize as a wave iv of C in the red count.