Market Update

Avi Gilburt

Each evening Avi Gilburt provides in-depth Elliott Wave analysis on the emini S&P 500, with occasional coverage of the U.S. Dollar, VIX, oil (USO), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's latest market update, along with his intraday "wave alerts" and live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Market Continues To Be Choppy Thu Feb 4th 2016

This market continues to act as a 4th wave would. While we clearly have higher targets before the 4th wave may be complete, the immediate path seems to be down as long as today's high is not breached. From the action we have seen of late, it is very hard to confidently maintain any position overnight unless one is trading the futures. And, even if you are trading the futures, many of the moves we have seen overnight have been superfluous to the SPX patterns.

Overlapping Decline Wed Feb 3rd 2016

With the follow through to the downside today, the market has not done so in what would be ideal impulsive structure. This opens the door to multiple possibilities, yet maintaining the higher probability that lower lows are still coming. The first is that the 4th wave has not yet completed. In that case, we can still see further downside into the end of the week towards the 1830-1850SPX region to complete a bigger (b) wave as noted by the yellow count.

Has Wave 5 Down Begun? Tue Feb 2nd 2016

With the market striking the lower end of our target zone for a 4th wave that we noted over the weekend (1945SPX), the potential certainly exists that wave 4 has completed. But, I want to re-publish a post I made earlier today, as I think it is very important for an understanding about how it is very hard to trade out of a 4th wave: Allow me to take a moment to provide you real time perspectives as to how I work within a 4th wave.

Market Still Over Support Mon Feb 1st 2016

While the market tested the support region noted over the weekend, we have still held over that support region between 1918-24SPX. And, as long as we maintain over that support region, we can still be heading up as high as the 1968SPX region to complete the (c) wave of wave 4.  From the alternative perspective, should we see a break tomorrow of that support region, with follow through below 1910SPX, it opens the door to the expanded (b) wave we discussed many times before.

Trading Within 4th Waves Is Hard Thu Jan 28th 2016

If there is one thing I caution most about is to not trade against a 3rd wave. The second biggest warning I provide is not to trade aggressively within a 4th wave. Right now, my primary count still has us within a 4th wave. And, within that 4th wave, I still believe we are trying to complete a (b) wave. But, clearly, trying to trade within this 4th wave requires traders to be nimble and take profits when they can.

Another Fed day, another whipsaw... Wed Jan 27th 2016

Today started off well with SPX following expectations, holding the .618 retrace at 1887.50 before turning back up to a new local high in what looked like wave iii of (c) in the red count. However, once the FOMC announcement hit the tape, price reversed back down strongly, breaking below support cited in the wave alerts to warn us that follow through was not going to happen. With the decline continuing down below the prior low this morning at 1887.

We may be heading higher sooner than expected Tue Jan 26th 2016

As noted in the wave alert sent out earlier today, since SPX was able to clear micro resistance from the move down into yesterday's low, as well as produce a potential micro 5 waves up from yesterday's low, probabilities appear to have shifted in favor of wave (c) of iv in the red count having already started.  I also mentioned this morning that even though the cash chart did not reach the ideal targets for wave (b), the move down last night in futures did tag the .

Following the script so far Mon Jan 25th 2016

The SPX traded nominally lower today, mostly chopping around though without clear conviction in either direction. Price has now taken out the initial signal level cited in this morning's update at 1891 SPX, which is the first sign supporting the top of an (a)-wave in place at Friday's high, and now the start of a corrective retrace as wave (b) of iv in the red count.

Potential Confluence Among Markets Still Exists Sat Jan 23rd 2016

For quite some time, I have presented the hypothesis that many markets will complete their corrections and begin a bullish run together. Specifically, I have been surmising that the metals, miners, oil, and equity markets may all bottom together, and then rally together, at least for some time. In fact, it is not at all uncommon to see metals and miners rally along with a 5th wave in the equity markets.

No major changes Thu Jan 21st 2016

Today's market action seemed to be about digesting yesterday's move up off the low. This fits with my expectations expressed earlier, and nothing dramatic has changed in my overall opinion. I still believe that yesterday marked a local bottom as either wave (v) of c in the blue count or wave (c) of iii in the red count. That would place price at a minimum in a corrective bounce as wave iv, targeting 1890 - 1961 SPX.