Market Update

Avi Gilburt

Each evening Avi Gilburt provides in-depth Elliott Wave analysis on the emini S&P 500, with occasional coverage of the U.S. Dollar, VIX, oil (USO), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's latest market update, along with his intraday "wave alerts" and live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Corrective Rally Or Something More Bullish? Tue May 24th 2016

With the SPX’s inability to break below the 2027- 1.00 extension off the February lows, it has left the door open for a higher high, as noted last week and over the weekend.  Moreover, today’s action made it clear that the bottom created last week was a bit unorthodox, as there was no standard completed pattern developed into the lows.  Rather, the low was made with a complex structure.  However, we have to deal with what the market provides, and we were well aware of the potential for this move.

Market Didn't Move Mon May 23rd 2016

We usually need movement in the market in order to be able to provide further updates.  However, today, there was basically no movement.  And, due to the lack of action, there is no more insight I am able to provide beyond the weekend update.  So, at this point in time, I still would like to see us heading lower, as long as we remain below 2075SPX, to complete the (a) wave of wave (2).

Coming To The End Of The (a) Wave Thu May 19th 2016

With the market continuing lower, there is a real question as to how we will drop to lower lows.  The micro structure can either support a standard impulsive structure, or an ending diagonal for this c-wave.  As long as we remain below 2039SPX at all times now, then we can continue down in impulsive fashion to complete the final 4’s and 5’s in the c-wave of the (a) wave of wave (2).  If we are to move through 2039SPX, then it makes this leg down more likely to be an ending diagonal.

Manic Market - But Still Looking Lower Wed May 18th 2016

This morning, I had an evil thought, and that was that the market may try to develop as an expanding triangle for the b-wave, which would slightly take out 2039SPX, only to whipsaw it back up towards the 2070SPX region.  I have since modified that to a running triangle, but, nonetheless, unless the market is able to maintain its downside pressure, we may still see one more rally back up before heading lower.

Can We Finally See Downside Resolution? Tue May 17th 2016

With enough waves in place to consider the b-wave triangle as completed, the question now is a matter of whether support will finally break.  As noted over the weekend, and throughout most of the updates, 2039SPX is the support which must be broken to open the door down to the 1995-2008SPX target below.  But, this market has given us more twists and turns than a winding road on a mountain.

DANGER: Whipsaw Ahead Mon May 16th 2016

This is the sign we have been basically been putting over our charts once we began to expect a corrective move down in the market.  And, the issue with corrective moves is that the patterns are quite variable and unreliable, yet, point lower before they complete. What is still presenting as the greater likelihood is that, as long as the market remains below 2090SPX, we are still looking down to the 1995-2008SPX next lower target.

Another Downside Set Up Thu May 12th 2016

Although I cannot say it is the most ideal of set ups, we clearly have what can be counted as a 1-2 downside set up in the SPX as of my writing this update.  While the initial 5 down is not the cleanest of 5 wave moves, we have a strongly arguable one in place, followed by a 3-wave rally.  This can certainly provide us with a gap down tomorrow.

Has Next Downside Phase Begun? Wed May 11th 2016

The market seems to have topped right where it should have based upon our 60 minute chart.  However, since the next drop “should” be a c-wave, which is a 5 wave impulsive event, we are still seeking confirmation with a 5 wave move down off the high.  As long as we remain below 2075SPX, we can complete that initial 5 waves down.  A move back over that level before we complete 5 down would suggest something else may be playing out, and it may even still be bullish.

Has A b-Wave Topped? Tue May 10th 2016

We came into the week with our ideal expectations being a rally to complete a b-wave.  Last night, I reiterated this perspective: We currently have a set up can take us to at least the 2080SPX region, as long as we do not break down below 2045SPX.  Moreover, this set up can even take us as high as 2105SPX.  But, the main point is that as long as the market remains over 2045SPX, I think we have more upside to be seen before the downside continues. Today, the market struck the 2080SPX region.

More Chop Mon May 9th 2016

There is nothing that changes my perspective on the SPX at this point in time.  We currently have a set up can take us to at least the 2080SPX region, as long as we do not break down below 2045SPX.  Moreover, this set up can even take us as high as 2105SPX.  But, the main point is that as long as the market remains over 2045SPX, I think we have more upside to be seen before the downside continues.