Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.


The Whipsaw Continues Thu May 17th 2018

While we caught the low on the pullback this morning, and then caught the high as well this morning, the pullback from the high that we expected broke down below the ideal support we noted on our charts for the more immediate (1)(2)i-ii structure.  However, the market still retained support over the 2707SPX level we noted last night as the lower end of ideal support.  While the market certainly broke an immediate bullish set up it had today, sometimes it takes two tries to get a trade right.

Support Held – SO FAR Wed May 16th 2018

As we rallied off yesterday’s low, the market can certainly be counted as an impulsive structure off that low.  In fact, we may even have a micro (1)(2)i-ii set up going into tomorrow, as presented on the micro-SPX 5-minute chart in yellow.  While many of you may be questioning why I am still looking up in the immediate term, it is purely because I recognize this is a larger degree bull market.  And, if I see impulsive structures taking shape, then I have to give the bulls the edge.

Moment Of Truth Tue May 15th 2018

When the market broke below Friday’s low this morning, it told us that wave (iv) was clearly not done in the yellow count.  And, today, we have been probing our support region between 2693-2706SPX. Remember, when the wave (iii) strikes the 1.236 extension, the market most often retraces back to the .764 extension, whereas a break down below the .618 extension suggests that an impulsive structure will “likely” fail in the great majority of times.

Still Over Support Mon May 14th 2018

With the market remaining well over support noted over the weekend at 2693SPX, we continued higher this morning.  The move up towards and a bit through the 1.236 extension on the 5 minute chart suggests that I should move our support up a bit.  When we rally to the 1.236 extension, ideal support is then moved up to the .764 extension in the 2706SPX region.   So, if the market has intentions of eclipsing 2800 in the coming weeks, that is now the level that should hold.

The Ending Diagonal Is Dead Thu May 10th 2018

While I was tempted to start this paragraph by saying “long live the ending diagonal,” I have chosen to abstain.  (smile)  Also, I am putting out this update a bit earlier than normal because I have to leave a bit earlier today. With the break over 2717.50, the ending diagonal pattern has invalidated, which still leaves us with two patterns – the triangle, and the more bullish yellow count.

Major Inflection Point Wed May 9th 2018

With the market continuing higher as we expected today, we have now come to the initial resistance target for wave 2 in the ending diagonal pattern.  And, as long as we do not exceed the 2700SPX by too much, I would expect a turn down from this region. But, in order to confirm that the market is dropping into the ending diagonal pattern from here, we will need to break below 2655SPX to confirm that we are in the a-wave of the wave 3 of the ending diagonal in green.

Will The Market Give Us One More Push Higher? Tue May 8th 2018

Yesterday, I laid out the parameters which would align the market with the purple wave structure relative to the green wave structure.  And, I also noted that I thought today would likely decide between the two. As it stands at the time of my writing this update, the purple count for the triangle has become a lot less likely.  The only way I can really buy into the purple wave count at this time is if we see some massive extensions in a rally from support.

Market Still Hiding Near Term Intentions Mon May 7th 2018

As I noted over the weekend, the SPX will have to break below 2645SPX to suggest that we are in a wave 3 down in the ending diagonal. But, since we broke over 2674SPX today, the ending diagonal potential has slightly shifted with this rally still only being a part of wave 2 of that ending diagonal.  In order to provide even an early signal that the upside may be completed, we need to see a sustained break below 2657, with follow through below 2645SPX.

Whipsaw City Thu May 3rd 2018

There is not a single trader alive who emerges unscathed while attempting to trade within a 4th wave.  That is why seasoned and experienced traders find huge value in understanding where we are within the market structure, as they reduce the number of trades they do during a 4th wave, in addition to reducing the amount of risk they are willing to accept during a 4th wave.

Giving Bulls Benefit Of The Doubt – For Now Wed May 2nd 2018

When the SPX provided us with the deep pullback I wanted to see yesterday, and then gave us an impulsive 5 wave structure off that low, it has lined up well with the potential for the SPX to rally to 2740+.  So, when the market lines up this well along several points of confluence for a rally, I will have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt in the short term. But, in order for the bulls to retain control of the market over the next week or so, they MUST hold over yesterday’s low.