Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

 

The Chart Seems To Be Filling In Nicely Thu Aug 17th 2017

With today’s drop from what I have labeled as the (a) wave high, the market has been filling in the ideal pattern to begin the wave (4).  While we clearly need a break below last week’s low to invalidate the potential in the yellow count, my primary perspective is going to remain the green count. As I have said many times since we began this 4th wave, the nature of 4th waves is “whipsaw.”  And, thus far, it has been certainly living up to its reputation.

Yet Another Twist And Turn Wed Aug 16th 2017

While Garrett has provided you with an accurate depiction of the market potential right now, I did want to post a few additional thoughts. Elliott identified that 5 wave structures were most often associated with continuation of the current trend.  So, if I see a 5 wave move off a low, my senses have to perk up and recognize that the immediate trend may not have concluded.

Statement made by the bulls Wed Aug 16th 2017

The market traded initially higher today, exceeding yesterday's high and now allowing for a possible 5 waves up from last week's low. As mentioned in yesterday's update, if we were to see 5 waves up off last week's low, it would force me to adjust my expectations to allow for a more bullish near-term outlook. Therefore, we now have a potential i-ii setup forming for another extension higher in the larger minor degree wave 3, which if follows through can take price up to ~2530 SPX before the next swing top.

Not giving up the ghost yet... Tue Aug 15th 2017

While the market started off initially lower this morning, it failed to follow through very far, holding well above the 2455 SPX signal support that needs to break in order to start looking confidently lower. Therefore, all we have so far is what looks like a corrective consolidation off the high this morning, and my fear is that it is the 4th wave of an impulse up from last week's low.

Flying jello Mon Aug 14th 2017

The market traded strongly higher today, so far cooperating with expectations for a (b)-wave bounce following last week's decline off the high as an (a)-wave. Since price has already reached the .500 retrace and is even close to the .618 retrace, it seems that all of the (b)-wave may be completing in this region rather than just wave a of (b).

Can We See A Rally Next Week? Thu Aug 10th 2017

With the market filling out exactly as we noted yesterday, we have now tested the first support region in the 2440-2450SPX region.  The question now is what the market does after testing this support. Under standard patterns, I would expect the market to hold this support region after a first test, and provide us with a rally into next week.  Most specifically, I am looking for a corrective rally for the b-wave of a larger (a) wave of wave (4).

Long Side Has Become More Dangerous In The Intermediate Term Wed Aug 9th 2017

When an ending diagonal completes, the market reverses strongly back down to where the ending diagonal began.  In our case, that is the 2460SPX region, and the market has just about struck our target region. So, where does that leave us?   Well, since the market reacted the way a completed ending diagonal normally would, and we have struck our target on negatively divergent technical indications, I believe our primary perspective should be that the market has topped out in wave (3).

Do You Feel Lucky, Punk? Tue Aug 8th 2017

Today, we finally struck the bottom of the target we have had for this segment of the rally off the February 2016 lows (2487SPX).  Moreover, we have struck that target in what seems to be an ending diagonal pattern for this final segment.  Confirmation of that should be a strong break down below today’s low of 2475.50.

Still stuck Mon Aug 7th 2017

The market continues to trade sideways in the same narrow range, not yet breaking out to a new high or rolling over to new local lows. Price has been drifting slowly toward the upper end of the trading range though, so it does seem like new highs is the path of least resistance currently. If a new high is seen from here as an extension of blue wave 3 or red wave circle iii, then 2488 - 2501 SPX would be the next fib target region above.

Market Awaiting A Catalyst? Thu Aug 3rd 2017

Yes, you heard me right.  The current choppiness may be the market simply waiting on a catalyst before it provides us with its next 10+ point move.  Now, while I do not believe the substance of the news should ever be a trading cue, a news event does sometimes act as a catalyst for a market move.