Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Bears Last Stand Before 2500SPX Thu May 25th 2017

With the market continuing to melt up, it has potentially presented us several things that have happened outside of standard wave structure.  I will discuss that further below.   But, for now, the market is in the middle of our resistance box to which we have been pointing for months.  This was the ideal region for the b-wave rally to top, and we now find ourselves within that region, which resided between 2410-2425SPX.

Market Just Refuses To Move Wed May 24th 2017

As I said today, the market just seems to be levitating up here.  For some reason, it is just refusing to move, and especially refusing to pullback. As I noted today, since we are so close to 2410SPX again, it is certainly possible that the market may again attempt to stretch for that region and finally strike it before turning lower.

Is This A Big FAKEOUT? Tue May 23rd 2017

Please take note of the modified bearish count on the chart One of the benefits of being a part of a trading room with over 3000 members, over 400 professionals, and 15 analysts is that we all are able to take advantage of the combined wisdom of all the members and analysts in the room.  Since I am but one person within this room, I am clearly unable to see all potentials the market may be throwing at us.

Lack Of Downside Follow Through Opens A Bullish Door Mon May 22nd 2017

The SPX had a set up as of the close on Friday to gap down and drop to much lower levels in a larger 4th wave pattern towards 2285SPX.  However, when we rallied instead to higher than last week’s rally high, it has now provided us with a very nice potential 5 wave structure off last week’s lows, and has given us a pattern we must respect and which can place a much more immediate bullish spin on the market.  I have presented that count in yellow on the attached 5 minute chart.

First Test Of C-Wave Impulsive Structure Thu May 18th 2017

The market bottomed today, as was my posted expectation this morning.   The question now is what this bottoming represents. When I review the TF and SPX charts, the most consistent count would make this rise wave iv of wave 3 in the c-wave lower.   However, that would mean that the upside should be quite limited as I write this.  Moreover, the 2368SPX level is an important signal point right now.

C-Wave In Progress Wed May 17th 2017

While the market did not provide us with those smaller squiggles higher, there is no doubt that we have been preparing for this type of action for weeks now, as I have been warning about the high risk at the highs.  In fact, I have warned many times that the c-wave “should” be a strong decline, and can even feel crash-like.  And, today certainly kicked it off in a meaningful way.

Quick Update Wed May 17th 2017

I wanted to send a quick update to the entire membership, due to the extensions overnight.  While the 2381/83SPX was my initial trigger based upon the proportions the market gave us yesterday, I have to slightly modify it to 2377SPX, which is a 2.618 extension down, and a 1.00 extension up, which can still support a 4th wave pullback in the blue count.  So, yes, I am still trying to be cautious with regard to any bearish potential because this is a bull market.

Still Inching Higher Tue May 16th 2017

The market seems to be crawling up to the resistance region we set for this rally quite some time ago.  But, as long as we remain below that resistance, I still expect a c-wave down. As you can see on the 5 minute chart, there are still a few ways this can play out over the coming days.

Questioning a b-Wave Rally Mon May 15th 2017

The market’s drop last week provided us with an immediate set up for the c-wave down which we have been expecting.  However, today, the market invalidated that IMMEDIATE set up for the c-wave.  And, when the market has the opportunity to follow through on a primary pattern, and chooses not to do so, it places questions in my mind if that is the true market intention. What keeps me solidly looking for that c-wave down is the pattern in the IWM.

Still not a confirmed top Thu May 11th 2017

The market traded sharply lower this morning, breaking below yesterday's low and then finding support near the May low. Since then, price has staged a strong recovery that retraced almost the entire drop, so far leaving us with only 3 waves down from the current May high. Therefore, although price broke initial signal support to indicate a top in place for wave (b) of iv, the lack of follow through today still leaves us without clear confirmation of that.