Market Update

Avi Gilburt

Each evening Avi Gilburt provides in-depth Elliott Wave analysis on the emini S&P 500, with occasional coverage of the U.S. Dollar, VIX, oil (USO), gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's latest market update, along with his intraday "wave alerts" and live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Why Peter Schiff Is Still Wrong About Gold . . . For Now Tue May 19th 2015

While Peter Schiff, and others of his ilk, have remained staunchly bullish of gold since the all-time highs in 2011, I feel they have done a terrible disservice to those that have followed them for the last 3+ years of “pain.”  Schiff is nothing more than an uber-bull, or gold-bug as some may call him, who continually calls for $5000 gold.

Are The Metals Broken? Tue May 19th 2015

The short answer to the question is “not yet.”  As I noted last week and over the weekend, the metals have enough waves in place to consider their upside counter-trend rally to have completed.  But, having enough waves in place and actually seeing a change in trend are not the same thing. Right now, silver has held onto its support by the skin of its teeth at 16.90 and GDX has held as well by maintaining over 19.84 . . . for now.

Market Still Quite Constructive For Bulls Tue May 19th 2015

In going back to our plan, the market is following through quite well: “I will be looking for the SPX to next challenge the 2135 region.”  Overnight, the market struck this region in the futures. “Should we see that region being struck, upper support is moved to the 2116-2123 region.

Big Test Coming Mon May 18th 2015

There is not much I am able to add to the weekend update published on Sunday morning, which really says it all right now: Yet, as long as we remain over upper support, I will be looking for the SPX to next challenge the 2135 region.  Should we see that region being struck, upper support is moved to the 2116-2123 region.

Here We Are Again Thu May 14th 2015

I can no longer count how many 3 wave structures we have seen over the last several months.  We have yet to see a solid 5 wave structure.  Due to this, many break out patterns have failed, and many break down patterns have also failed.  But, the one constant to which I can still point is that as long as IWM has not broken 117, I still expect us to go higher.  The question of how high I expect is a bit of a concern to me in the SPX.

More Meandering Wed May 13th 2015

This sure has felt like months of meandering we have been seeing in the equity markets.  And, there is no signal yet that it has completed. As we closed the day yesterday, the SPX had yet another break out set up on the table.  However, once it broke through 2107 this morning, it fell back below 2104 and signaled that it was likely going to break another clean upside set up.

Breakout Wed May 13th 2015

Finally, the metals have taken the opportunity to break out in the set ups we have been noting for weeks.  But, now the question will be where do we top. Based upon the current structure, I do not believe we will see the bigger rally I had initially wanted to see, as the smaller time frame counts suggest that we may come up short.  And, when I review the count for the GDX, there does not seem like there is much more upside to be seen, which also makes me more concerned about the metals.

A Mess of 3’s Tue May 12th 2015

I am putting this update out early because I want everyone to think about the potential change to the pattern and upside potential this could cause should we see a break out to all-time highs this week. The overnight break down below 2092ES should have had the market heading towards the last week’s lows, and even undercutting it, since we only completed 3 waves up off the last week’s lows.

Moment of Truth Mon May 11th 2015

As noted in the weekend update, we still need a full 5 waves off last week’s lows to solidify the immediate expectations of 2200 in the S&P500.  As of today, we only have 3 waves up.  And, as I have also stated, 2097ES is ideal support, which is the .382 retrace of wave 3 off the lows. As you can see on the attached 3 minute chart, I would want to see us hold 2097ES, and then see a strong b-wave, which potentially takes us back to today’s high.

A Good Start Thu May 7th 2015

With the overnight drop in the ES, the patterns I see in the ES do vary from the SPX, with the SPX presenting much more bullishly.  Since our bigger expectations are more bullishly inclined, I am going to follow the smaller degree bullish pattern until the market makes it clear that we should not. As noted yesterday, there are clearly enough waves in place now to consider wave (2) as having completed, but we need to see confirmation that we are on our way to 2200.  Today was a good start in the SPX.