Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.

 

Market Tested The Bulls Today Thu Feb 14th 2019

As I highlighted in last night’s update, the 2730SPX region is going to be our indication that a potential high has been struck.  And, today, the market came right up to that line, and turned back up rather strongly. Overall, the additional update I provided this morning is still quite applicable, but with some minor variations, which I will now present. But, the main point is that as long as we hold over today’s low, the FOMO count is still quite applicable.

Inflection Point Update Thu Feb 14th 2019

Since we are approaching a bigger inflection point, I thought this would be appropriate to send to the entire membership: 'We are now at the next inflection point for the market. And, we will have several of these should we continue to move higher.  This one may be a bit tricky. With the corrective flat I outlined yesterday holding support, we are now heading up what can me a 5th wave off the low from last week.  Clear resistance is 2770-77.

Time to Discuss Timing Wed Feb 13th 2019

I rarely get into the perspective of specific “timing” within the market because, based upon my research and experience, I still have not found anything that would work better than 50% when it comes to “cycles,” with many underperforming that benchmark.   In fact, I have seen cycles analysts blow up more people’s accounts than I have cared to see, and it truly makes me sick.  But, I digress.

Continued Rally Sets Up A More Sinister Market Wed Feb 13th 2019

With the rally trying to push directly higher to complete this b-wave sooner than expected, it can set up a very sinister c-wave drop once everyone gets confident that the bull market is back.  And, this direct drive to 2800 and higher seems to be doing its trick. While we have always expected this market to come back to at least the 2800 region, and even potentially make a higher high for this b-wave, there is no question that I did not expect it to take a direct route.

The Honey-badger b-Wave Tue Feb 12th 2019

I am going to take a step back to review what has worked since this 4th wave began in the fall of 2018, and what has not. It was quite clear that our warning of a break of 2880SPX opened the door to this 4th wave having begun, especially when it seemed like most others were caught by surprise.  And, today, we still remain below that region. Moreover, once we began breaking down below 2800SPX in December, we set a downside target for the a-wave in the 2250-2335SPX region.

Downside Setup Remains Intact Mon Feb 11th 2019

With the market pushing higher towards the top of our resistance region in the 2725SPX region today, it has again turned down, and may be set up to break down as early as tomorrow. The current micro structure suggests that either all of the (b) wave is in place, or it may even see one more push higher before completing.

FINALLY, A Pullback Thu Feb 7th 2019

With the market finally breaking below upper support, we have now likely begun the pullback for which we have been eagerly waiting. As noted yesterday, when the market broke 2715, it was our initial signal that the [b] wave pullback has begun.  And, the micro structure suggests that today was the [a] wave within the a-wave of the [b] wave pullback, as you can see from the attached 5-minute SPX chart. So, for now, my perspective remains unchanged.

Will FOMO Take Over The Market? Wed Feb 6th 2019

With the market still holding over support and moving sideways the last several days, it still has provided no signal that it has topped. To remind you, at the end of last year, we set up a bottoming target between 2250 and 2335SPX.  While we expected the market to provide us one more 4-5 within the downside count to complete in that region, the market bottomed in that region (in the futures) without that last 4-5.

Stretching Further Tue Feb 5th 2019

As I outlined yesterday, the cash index suggested that we were completing wave (iii) of this wave v, and the rally we had overnight into this morning seems to have completed that wave (iii).  That would make today’s pullback wave (iv), as long as we hold the support box now moved up to the 2716-24SPX region.  This makes the analysis rather easy at this point in time.  As long as we hold over today’s pullback low, the market is set up for wave [v] of v of 5 of [a].

Talk About Stretched To The Upside Mon Feb 4th 2019

With the market remaining over the 2695SPX support, we have traced out an expanded 4th wave flat in wave iv, and today provided us with the continuation for wave v.  So, in the micro structure, 2710-13 is now micro upper support.  A pullback to that support can still represent a micro 4th wave in the wave v up here, which means we will need to break that support to begin suggesting this wave v has completed its structure.