Market Update

Avi Gilburt

This page features Avi Gilburt's nightly analysis of the S&P 500. Articles are made available on this public page 72 hours after posted live for our subscribers. For Avi's complete coverage, which includes analysis of the S&P 500, Metals (GDX, GLD, YI), Oil (USO), and US Dollar, plus a wide range of market coverage by our analyst team and a live member discussion forum, please login.


Behold, A Pullback Thu Feb 16th 2017

Yes, ladies and gentleman, the market has provided us with a pullback.  How long will it last?  Well, an IDEAL wave (4) may last into tomorrow.  But, as we know, the market has been quite stingy with pullbacks of late, and with the break of micro support this morning, it suggests that we can see a test of our micro support region.

Pullbacks Will Certainly Be Seen Wed Feb 15th 2017

Yes, I know, it feels like the market will never pull back again.  However, with the extensions we have seen, it actually means that we may not attain my ideal target of 2400-2440SPX in this wave degree.  You see, that structure really needed a larger i-ii set up to provide us a truly extended 5th wave in wave (iii).  And, with the continued extensions higher of late, it could mean we only get towards the 2370SPX region for wave (iii) and top there, as noted in my alternative yellow count.

Can We Still See A Pullback? Tue Feb 14th 2017

With the move higher today, the SPX MAY have a full 5 waves up off the recent lows.  The only issue I have right now is that the IWM really shows only 3 up.  So, as long as we remain over 2313SPX – the 1.00 extension off the lows – I will maintain an open mind for either a double top or a higher high. As I also noted in an update today, you may see the analysts here diverging in some of their micro counts.

Bulls Have Been Unstoppable Mon Feb 13th 2017

There has been no question to us that the broader market trend is quite bullish, has been for quite some time, and we expect it to continue for quite some time more.  However, the question with which we have been grappling of late is where the next “pullback” takes hold. For now, the market seems to be powering forward in wave (3) of wave i of 5 of (iii), as we build our rally to our next higher target in the 2400-2440SPX region.

Market Will Now Be Put To The Test Thu Feb 9th 2017

With the market making a higher all-time high today, it places us squarely in the ending diagonal count.  For the last month and a half, the market has been chopping to the upside in a very overlapping form, and that is quite consistent with the ending diagonal.

Market Still Trying To Reach Higher Wed Feb 8th 2017

With micro upper support holding yet again, the market may be setting up for yet another push for a new all-time high.  Tonight's update is rather simple.  As long as the market holds over today's pullback low, we have a 5 wave structure off that low.  This sets us up for a c-wave to a higher high, to complete the ending diagonal to complete wave 3, as now noted in purple.

Continued Sideways Action Tue Feb 7th 2017

The market continues to move sideways, and still keeping us in the dark about a potential pullback. Currently, the market can be considered completing a b-wave in the alt 3 count, which sets up a rally through the 2300 region to complete this ending diagonal, which "should" complete this week in this count.  However, I am still going to caution you about the potential for a running triangle, as shown in the alt 4 count in yellow, which would invalidate once the market breaks below 2267SPX.

Still Hard To Be Bearish Mon Feb 6th 2017

The market has not followed through on any bearish set up we have seen during this 5 week choppy pattern higher.  As I have noted several times in the trading room, the overlapping nature higher over the last 5 weeks does not lend itself to a high probability SHORT TERM perspective.

Market Machinations Killing Bears And Annoying Bulls Thu Feb 2nd 2017

I am putting out today’s update a bit early, because I want to adjust some of the short-term wave counts, and apologize for the changing perspectives of late, as the market has been quite difficult on the smaller degree counts.  So, allow me to explain my ongoing thought process so it hopefully may become clear to you. This past week, the market broke its immediate bullish impulsive count to 2330+, and it made us view other potentials, with the primary one being an expanded flat for wave 4.

Quick Update Wed Feb 1st 2017

I am sending this out as a member wide update, as I think the probabilities have slightly changed in my view, and wanted to alert you to the potential.  From today's high, we have what can be 5 waves down.  That does put more pressure on the bulls, and opens the door a bit more to the bigger 4th wave pattern, which was only an alternative count before.