Market Moves Lower But Still Over Downside Pivots
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Today, we saw the market move lower; however, we have yet to clear the downside pivots, keeping us in a bit of suspense as we move into the middle of the week. There are a few different ways to count the downside action, none of which are terribly reliable, so for now my main focus is going to be on the larger price pivot/support levels below.
As shown on the ES chart, the first pivot level that I am watching comes in at the 7352-7328 zone below. We will need to break this zone, followed by a break of the 7289 level, to start a more accelerated move lower as part of a wave iii of c down.
If we find support at these pivot levels and turn back higher in a corrective fashion, then it opens the door for a local bottom in the form of the yellow wave a to be in place, suggesting that we are going to see a wave b retrace higher before heading lower again.
Even under that yellow count, however, as long as we remain under the 7500 level, I am still looking lower in the near term. But moving through that 7500 level would leave the door open for seeing another push higher as part of the green count. I will note that at this point in time, the green count is a less probable outcome, but I will continue to monitor that path until we can actually break through the key support/pivot zone below.
Again, for now, I will be more focused on the price support/pivot levels as the price action is a bit sloppy on the shorter timeframes, and I think the actual price levels are going to be a more telling indication of where this is headed in the near term.
