Escalator Up? - Market Analysis for May 21st, 2026
By
Avi Gilburt
I am going to make this update short.
The last metals update told you to expect a bounce, and that is what we got. While I am really questioning what that bounce was in GDX, silver can be 5 waves up, but gold has a “technical” 5 waves up. The problem with gold’s 5 waves up is that it had a 3rd wave to the 1.618 extension and the 5th wave just shy of the 2.00 extension off the i-ii set up off the low. That is NOT normal to see in a metals 5-wave structure, and they often well exceed those standard targets we see for equities.
Yet, I cannot deny that 5 waves up. And, while it could be a micro wave 1 in the purple count, it also can be an a-wave in wave 2. Both suggest that if we hold the support box I added to the 13-minute gold chart we should be going higher in the coming days. Once we begin that rally and wave 2 is in place, I will try to put out the pivot overhead, which will be at the .618-.764 extension of waves 1-2. As long as the market does not rally to the 1.00 extension or a bit higher and then holds over that pivot, this could be the start of the purple count to much higher levels.
However, if we rally to the 1.00 extension and then come back down below the pivot, that tells us clearly that this is likely a corrective rally and we have potentially begun that decline towards those lower targets below.
Alternatively, should GDX turn down earlier, and break below the 81 region, that opens the door to a more direct decline to the 60-65 region and I would suspect the other charts will follow. And, the 86-88 region will be your resistance for bounces.
So, those are the parameters to follow in the coming days.
The only issue is that I will not be at my desk today and tomorrow (as we begin the religious holiday of Shavuot this evening through Saturday), so I may not be available to post it. But, that is the process you will need to follow in the coming days.
