The Trail Has a Price (ANT)

The private market paved the path. Now the public completes the fifth wave.

Picture a wall of ants pushed up against a reduced opening, just waiting for a crease to open. Everyone is an ant, part of the crowd, whether they recognize it or not.

Last month, I proposed that Anthropic’s (ANT) private funding rounds had already traced the first four waves of an Elliott Wave structure, leaving the fifth for the public to complete. Now we have the amended S-1. The offering range is set at $70 to $78 per share. However, $89 was my initial projection, and ultimately I anticipate demand to push the pricing there. And I am projecting the fifth wave to carry shares toward $144, possibly within the first few trading sessions.

The Crowd Was There Before the Bell

Wave 1 is the initial impulse, literally. It’s the first move with the early adopters, the trend changers, the angel investors. Wave 2 corrects the first move, usually in price. But in private funding rounds it is typically via time. The time it takes for the concept to get traction, and then the big money shows up in wave 3. Wave 4 is another waiting period (the prospectus, the roadshow). Finally, wave 5 belongs to the public.

We are conditioned to see a correction via price, not time. But time corrects sentiment just as does price, only in a different plane.

For Anthropic, the measurable trail begins with Series E in early 2025, at a split-adjusted $5.61 per share. Series F followed at $14.10 in late summer 2025, and the months before Series G were the wave 2 wait. Series G at $25.91 and Series H at $58.90 form the third wave. To me, the tenders, resales and secondary quotes in between are non-event type transactions rather than meaningful price points. I would ignore them in the big picture. It’s necessary jockeying for position before the bell.

The following chart plots each round from Series E in March 2025 through Series H, on a log scale, with the $89 pricing and the $144 top dashed in as projections.

The First Test Was SPCX

SpaceX’s private funding history provided the structure. From this I projected a fifth-wave completion zone between $225 and $240 even before SPCX began trading. It priced at $135 and reached $225.64 in its third session. As trading began, we posted charts pointing to the $225 price confluence with the possibility of seeking slightly higher. But when near-term supports broke, it became clear that it was headed towards a deeper correction. Shares eventually reached approximately $105, nearly 54% below the high, before recovering toward $175.

I did not think to try to divine the SPCX IPO price. But after seeing the model work and then having the necessary variables for ANT, I am taking an educated swing at the $89 level.

Was the original projection a fluke? Perhaps. One successful observation doesn’t settle the question. Institutional investors may possess better research, greater access, and substantial experience. But they remain human. Fear, greed, panic, and the inclination to chase an opportunity do not disappear because someone manages billions of dollars.

I always keep in mind that I didn’t invent any of this. Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci Pinball have been used for years. I’m one analyst pointing the telescope toward a different part of the sky, looking to see whether the same relationships appear.

Where the Fifth May Finish

The $89 projection for the IPO pricing comes from the original funding structure. It’s the 2.00 Fibonacci extension of waves 1 and 2. The book is reportedly several times oversubscribed, which fits, but the math is my only basis. Did the underwriters set the initial range just a bit lower than they wanted to allow the pressure to build? I don’t know. A $78 IPO pricing would suggest that sentiment is cooling. I do not expect this to be the case, but it remains possible.

Series H fell a little short of the 1.618 extension near $62.62. From $58.90, a fifth wave equal to the first points near $148, and the 2.618 extension sits near $157. Apply the same shortfall to the fifth and the math says $142.50.

I’m choosing $144 instead, along with $89, because they are Fibonacci numbers inside a larger sequence. From $89, $144 is a 1.618 ratio. Is this some sort of coincidence, that pivotal numbers in this IPO are also Fibonacci numbers? We’re about to see. Maybe it’s art plus science. Or math plus artist’s license.

With roughly 13.15 billion shares outstanding at an $89 pricing (including the underwriters’ option), $144 would value Anthropic near $1.9 trillion.

Share supply is the other half. The offering is 825 million shares, nearly 949 million with the underwriters’ option, about 7% of the company. In private funding rounds, the company is valued based on that round. In post-IPO trading, it will temporarily be valued based on where the crowd can push the share price through that reduced opening.

Track the smaller subwaves. Once the IPO officially prices the night before, we’ll have our initial anchor. Then the opening move, any pullback and rally. SPCX formed five waves up from its opening trade, and that smaller impulse fit the larger projection. I’d look for the same here. The first wave ‘i’ high and wave ‘ii’ low will set a new Fibonacci Pinball overlay, with the 1.00 extension as resistance and the .618–.764 region as support. Then those subwaves should ideally fit inside the larger projection.

I said two or three sessions. That’s a guess. It could happen on day one.

The sellers in those first sessions are mostly traders following the crowd, plus some flippers cashing out early and taking the heat from their brokers - maybe a 60-day ban from the next deal. For them it’s… who cares? This may be the last great IPO for a bit.

If greed turns to panic greed (I want more and I want it now, reason thrown aside), $144 may be struck and then exceeded. The subwaves will narrow down the next overhead target.

When the Ants Turn Around

Reaching $144 would not, by itself, prove the fifth wave has ended. I’d want five smaller waves complete. Same as SPCX: it will be a break of near-term support structured from the initial moves post-IPO that will guide. A break beneath the smaller fourth-wave low, or the .382 retracement of the advance from the wave ‘ii’ low, would confirm it.

Any event that receives tremendous build-up usually has a culmination, and exhaustion sets in after the peak passes. SPCX corrected more than 50% from its high. Something comparable could take ANT below its offering price, with the broader market setting the depth and duration. There is always a last buyer. It’s how it must be.

That is not a prediction that Anthropic’s business deteriorates. It is an observation about sentiment, which can expand and contract far faster than the business changes.

So, to boil it down to actual parameters: ANT prices at $89, advances through a smaller five-wave impulse toward $144, perhaps within two or three sessions, then begins a meaningful correction. Below $70, something other than the primary scenario is going on.

I’m never surprised when a Pinball structure completes. However, it never ceases to amaze me. It’s much like watching a sunset. You’re not surprised that the sun is going down. You just don’t know the colors to be displayed and duration of the event yet.

Without specific parameters, we’re guessing. Sometimes we’ll be right. Much of the time we’ll bumble along in the dark. If you put your head down and march with the crowd, how do you know where you’re headed? Stay in the light. Keep your eyes open. Fix your gaze ahead.

The crease is about to open.