Missing Big Market Moves

In this service, we are constantly scanning a wide range of charts, seeking high-probability trade setups grounded in Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci Pinball. My primary focus remains on equity and volatility charts, while Mark surveys a much broader landscape through sector analysis. This division of labor has expanded our opportunity set, but it has not changed our standard.

We take only the highest-probability setups.

That discipline is the foundation of the outsized returns we’ve delivered over the past eight years. And it’s important to understand: those results were not achieved by constant activity. There have been extended periods where no high-probability setups were present. In those moments, the correct action is inaction, waiting patiently for clarity to emerge.

What often follows those quieter stretches is a surge of opportunity, multiple setups appearing in quick succession. This ebb and flow is simply the nature of markets. Even with Mark’s broader scan increasing the frequency of potential trades, there will still be times when nothing meets our standard. When that happens, we stand aside. If a setup is not strong enough to warrant deploying our own capital, it certainly is not strong enough for members to follow.

Most commonly, these dry periods occur in low-volatility environments where price action lacks clarity. However, they can also arise in volatile conditions, such as we’ve seen recently, where large intraday moves mask a lack of clean, high-probability structures. Volatility alone is not an opportunity. Structure is, and without structure, we wait.

This disciplined approach is precisely what has driven our long-term success, including more recent performance such as Lou’s TCA model portfolio, which has gained over 50% in the past six months.

What Warrants a High-Probability Setup

Within Elliott Wave, there are several patterns we consistently monitor:

• The classic five-wave advance followed by a three-wave retracement
• The Ending Diagonal Reversal (our preferred setup)
• Select fourth-wave consolidations that meet strict criteria

However, pattern recognition alone is not sufficient. Each setup must align correctly within the larger degree structure. We also analyze multiple timeframes and related charts to confirm validity.

Equally critical is the evaluation of the alternate count.

We do not simply identify a primary scenario; we rigorously assess the likelihood of competing interpretations. When both primary and alternate counts point in the same direction, we gain a margin of safety. Even if the primary count fails, the broader directional bias may still allow for profitability.

Conversely, when the primary and alternate counts diverge, our margin for error shrinks. In those cases, caution increases.

The key question becomes: How viable is the alternate count?

• If the alternate count has a low probability, confidence in the primary increases.
• If the alternate remains plausible, we proceed with restraint, even if we favor the primary outcome.

This is where discipline overrides opinion.

On Missing Moves

There will be times when the market makes significant moves, and we are not participating.

That is by design.

We are not attempting to capture every move. We are focused on capturing the right moves, those that offer favorable risk-reward with high probability. Over time, this approach allows us to outperform while keeping drawdowns controlled.

At present, we are operating in an environment where index charts are producing large intraday swings, yet the broader structure remains unclear. The primary and alternate counts are currently in conflict. In such conditions, participation for the sake of activity is not a strategy; it is a liability.

Yes, we would all prefer to be positioned for every major move.

But doing so would come at the cost of consistency, and ultimately, performance

Final Though

Patience pays.

Trust the process. Avoid the pull of fear of missing out. There will always be another setup, another opportunity, another trade.

Our edge is not in constant action; it is in disciplined selectivity.