Chart on S&P 500 (5-min)

This is where cash and ES are a bit divergent.  Cash has us still needing a 5th wave to complete wave iii, whereas there are enough waves in ES to consider wave iii complete.  If we are able to move up to the .382 retracement in cash at 2020SPX, then it would become clear to me that wave iii has completed.  But, until such time, a lower low to complete wave iii is still needed in the cash chart.

Avi Gilburt is founder of