Chart on ES (3-min)

When I went back to pick apart the subwaves into the bottom yesterday, it left me two possibilities.  Since I would rather be more cautious about looking to the short side too soon, I want to note the more aggressively bullish potential so we are not caught flat footed.  These are the potentials I am watching today, with a break down below 2070ES being a signal that wave 4 has topped. 

But, even assuming that we do get a full 5 up in the yellow alternative, we would need to take out the high we make for the 5 waves up to consider the bottom for the b-wave being in place, and us being on our way to 2150+.

In summary, a break below 2070ES begins the process to a lower low, which turns the bigger pattern immediately bearish as the primary, as long as we do not double bottom at 2043SPX.  However, a 5 wave move up which completes between 2080-2083ES can either be wave i of the move to a higher high, or the top of a 4th wave.  The pullback from that level should make things more clear if we get that higher high.

I know this is a bit complex, but I am just trying to be careful and avoid whipsaw by shorting too early

Avi Gilburt is founder of