I was asked if it was to early to tell where the market might be heading into the elections a year from now and how it might respond (irrespective of who wins).
Short answer: Yes, too soon.
But... I think it is an interesting exercise.
IF we have topped in the (B) wave and are starting a (C) down whether this bounce is part of 2 or just a ivth of 1, then I think most of the rest of (C) could complete ahead of the Nov 2024 elections. That means there is a chance to have some sort of A-B setup off a low in place and the market turns up strongly immediately following. Even if the (B) wave attempts OMH as a vth of C of (B), I think we could still be completing most of the (C) into or ahead of that so the response is a strong bounce.
Looking at past elections:
-Nov 2016 got the night-time spike lower low in the circle ii of 3 inside the (5)th of P.3 off the Jan 2016 lows, and the SPX did not have any of that drop and just launched in the iii of 3 then next day.
-Nov 2020 was the low for the ii of 3 of (3) inside the P.5.
-Nov 2012 (a few days after election was the low for a small two inside the (3) of P.3.
-There was even a bounce that started on Nov 24 2008 as the fourth of the C down.
-Oct 29 2004 was a low for a 2 inside (1) of Primary C up inside the Cycle b.
-*Nov 2000 election marked a TOP for the (X) inside Primary A of Cycle a down.