We are looking toward a key pivot in the crypto market. If you read past reports, you know that I've been tracking a wave 2 in Bitcoin with an alt wave 4. Below $6800 'invalidates' or makes improbable the wave 4 as that is a 50% retrace of wave three. But if it remains open, I'll need to see the reaction the market gives us at the $20K region. We have the early micro signs that we are heading toward the high $8K's where the .382 retrace resides. This may be the bottom of this correction in Bitcoin before a blast towards 6 figures if a third is up next. Given the depth of this correction I lean towards the wave two yet I'll watch my alt until invalidated.
Here is my nightly report for subscribers in the crypto room:
Note that this report is very 'micro' focused. For those trading larger timeframes we are starting to hit levels where one might consider some scaling in as long as you recognize that we have a target as low as $7800, which if hit and a rally is only corrective may result in a drop to $4300. Positioning for these potentials are important.
With baited breadth I am watching for this move down to show signs that we are finally moving lower toward key targets. Mainly, I am hoping for signs we don't take a sideways path in the alternate triangle I laid out last week. We can't say yet whether we have a high probability setup for lower, but we have the early signs. In Bitcoin and Ethereum, we simply need one more wave down to suggest fives waves lower is in. And, if complete, I'll focus on resistance for wave ii to track progress lower.
Currently, if we hold the $10350 region in Bitcoin, we can looker lower toward the $9500-9600 region in the fifth wave. That suggests we are moving lower toward the low $8K's/High $7K's.
Ideally Ethereum holds $189 and sees one more wave lower for fives waves.
While GBTC is low enough at close to suggests the move down to the $9 to $10 region the structure is quite corrective looking. In micro that may be simple as the gaps we see in the GBTC chart. But this deserves watching.
ETHBTC continues to roll down towards .015. However, note that the current structure downward, so we may see another run on resistance before continuing the trend downward.