With the depth of the current pullback, it seems that the market is signaling that we are one degree ahead of where I initially expected in MOST of our metals charts.
Prior to today’s action, I had initially assumed that the metals were going to see a bigger wave v of [v] of III, especially since we really did not make up much higher ground in the last move to the recent highs. As the last rally came up a bit short in GDX, GLD and silver, it would seem that wave [v] of III was rather small. Therefore, it would suggest that this pullback is wave IV of (3), and I have modified my wave count accordingly.
That being said, I have to note that the GDXJ still looks as though it is only completing its wave iv of [v] of III, as you can see from the attached chart.
Moreover, I really have a hard time seeing that GOLD has completed a 5-wave structure at this time, and still think that we have higher to go even if we are still completing the alternative in yellow.
So, in the coming days, I am going to be watching the market carefully for a CLEAR 5-wave structure off this pullback. That will likely alert me to the start of the next rally phase, with most products likely being in wave V of (3).