Weekly Crypto Report: Starting to Bounce

Starting to Bounce

Note I am releasing this tonight instead of Sunday because I will not likely be able to while traveling.

Long-term Traders:

Intermediate charts and write-ups are included. I reordered the colors of my count in Bitcoin count, attempting to simplify it. The black count reflects the recent A wave top. I used the blue color to show that red B can be coincident with a larger A wave in blue. 

Housekeeping:

NA

Micro:

General

Bitcoin and Ether are starting to bounce this weekend but so far are corrective and under resistance so I assume they will both continue lower into the week. 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has started to bounce in wave 4 of circle-A and should then drop to $25,500-26,000. $28,720 is resistance for wave-4 of circle-A. Over that level correctively means it should be in circle-B. But if impulsive, Bitcoin may have bottomed in all of red-ii. 

Ethereum

Ether is bouncing correctively sho should be working on wave-(4) of circle-A as long as it holds $1975. Above that level, if still corrective, puts Ether in circle-B. If it breaks over $1975 impulsively that may mean all of blue-b has bottomed. 

ETHBTC

ETHBTC may have topped in (B) or the alternate red circle-1. From here 0.064 is the pivot between the red and the black count.

GBTC

GBTC will get covered when the stock market opens on Monday. 

Intermediate Views

Bitcoin Intermediate

With the sustained break over $27,500, I assume that Bitcoin is headed to $125K unless it is stopped by a high-B wave as shown in red. Ideally, Bitcoin holds $21,800K from here to $125K. If $21,800 breaks, there is a chance for Bitcoin to hold the $18K region in black (B). As well, red B can be coincident with the higher red A, in the $50K region, which is shown in blue. 

Ethereum Intermediate

Ether is expected to rally to $10,500 unless it is stopped by a B-wave top between $2300 and $3000. Ideally, $1450 holds from here to $10,500. Breaking over $4000 reduces the potential of breakdown from a B-wave top. Now that we have a three-wave top near $2100, I am watching to see if Ether holds the blue count in the $1500 region, which can morph into a larger diagonal for A. Or, it may drop deeper into the $12-a300 region for in black-(B). 

GBTC Intermediate

As long as Bitcoin is over $21K, I expect GBTC to rally toward $100 in a fifth wave. Unfortunately, this leaves us with an expanded diagonal, a very uncommon pattern. I can chalk it up to the deep discount to NAV in GBTC. Below $7.46, breaking $5 invalidates this count, and makes the red count the only remaining candidate for a functional count.