Week In Review: Equites, Metals, Bitcoin
By
Lou Alfieri
Week in Review
Volume was quite decent for a shortened week,.and the SPX closed approximately 130 points higher. The preceding week lost approximately 150 points. In other words, we haven't moved much in two weeks. In fact, one can argue that SPX has been trending sideways since the week of May 11th. Despite the major equity indexes being out of sync for some time, this high-level, sideways pattern can also be seen on the Nasdaq, albeit with greater volatility. Are equity markets topping? (perhaps) Is there a rotation from growth to value? (a little) Or are we going higher in Avi's blue count? Let's get a grip on where equities stand, check in on the metals trade, and see what else has changed.
Equities
The year is half over. The S&P500 spent most of the first quarter in a short gamma regime and most of the second quarter in a long gamma regime. Most years tend to lean one way or the other. On Thursday, SPX sold down to the GT level and bounced off of it in the late afternoon to close long gamma by a little over half of one percent. At approximately 7430 SPX a retest of the GT level early next week is not out of the question. My takeaway from this is that equity markets are at an inflection point and could ultimately go either way. Leo's most recent update to the Flagship Service was on Monday, June 29th, here: https://www.
Identifying an indecisive market condition is helpful, but with Elliott Wave analysis we can do more. The following is Avi's daily chart of SPX:
To keep this brief, I will just state that analysts are expecting that we are topping, at least locally. We are expecting a pullback to the general region of 7,000 SPX, ideally. That move ideally will take us to Avi's wave 2, which I have highlighted with a red arrow. Importantly, that wave 2 could also be just an a wave of an (a) wave of a much larger decline (aka the red count). It isn't until we can observe the wave structure of the rally off of that wave 2/a that we get a better idea of where equity markets are heading for the 2nd half of 2026.
That is our larger degree context: equity markets are moving sideways in a high consolidation, hovering near the GT level, and possibly (perhaps even likely) forming at least a local top. So while analysts expect a decline, it is the nature of the reversal off of that decline that we are most interested in, and we have some time yet before that takes shape. Avi explains all of this in detail in his Weekly Video, posted Wednesday, July 1, here: https://www.
Metals
We have been discussing a potential long term bottom forming across the metals complex, with GDX presenting the clearest setup. Even so, Avi is still expecting a lower low on GDX, but it is not necessary. This does not mean that all metals miners charts present the same way. Some miners may bottom sooner than others and as we have discussed the Metals, Mining, and Agriculture Service is presenting those.
As for the metals themselves, the price of gold has probed Avi's buy zone and has made a lower low. It is possible wave v was unusually short and the decline is over, despite looking better if price were to come deeper in the buy zone. The same cannot be said for silver.
Bitcoin
This week, analyst and host of the Crypto Waves Service, Ryan Wilday took a concerted look at the prevailing theories Bitcoin traders tend to revere and places each of them in the context of the current bear market. On June 29th, in Crypto Waves, Ryan posted the article, Bitcoin Wants to Slay the Sacred Cows, the public version of which is here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/Bitcoin-Wants-to-Slay-the-Sacred-Cows-2026062910286652.html.
Ryan shares his thoughts with the Flagship Service every month in a live video (The last one was on June 20th, here: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/videos/Public-Crypto-Waves-Webinar-June-20th-2026-2026062024734.html). I will be sure to remind everyone before next month's live video so you can login on that Saturday morning and get updated with what Ryan is seeing in the crypto complex.
Have a great long weekend everyone! Please feel free to ask any questions in the comments below, whether or not they are related to this post. It is my hope that we all stay focused so that we can take advantage of opportunities across all markets as they arise. See you all Monday!
P.S. Levi just posted his weekend SPX update below. It comports with our current understanding. He states he is leaning towards his cyan count which in the near term matches up against Avi's slightly higher (b) wave. Pro Tip: Never sleep on Levi's counts.
