Weak Internals to SPY Bounce

As the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has bounced to the highest resistance band near 332, the probabilities have continued to indicate this bounce has weak internals and a trip back down to 315-320 continues to be the most likely outcome over the next 1-2 weeks.  

As this swing position has been viewed as a hedge by the Bayesian Timing System (BTS) for longer-term long positions, a material break of all-time highs would put this signal in jeopardy as that run to the mid-340s may be underway now.  

Here are few micro-paths: (1) [Probability=82%] SPY turns down in the 332-335 range back to down to the low 320s or worse, and 2) [P=18%] SPY sustainably breaks above 335 now and heads to the mid-340s now (separate from the down to 320 and then back up to the mid-340s, as discussed herein.  

Intermediate outlook: In general, the BTS sees a wide trading range for the next several weeks between 310s-330s at the swing trading level and then one more high into 345-350 range in the intermediate timeframe and then a bear market of 20% to possibly much worse on the multi-month horizon.  

Only if and when 350 is cleared does that more bullish potential begin to surface targeting 400 or higher in the next several years.

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Luke Miller, who has developed a Bayesian timing system for trading the stock market, hosts two Bayesian timing premium services at ElliottWaveTrader.