Finally, the 114 wall in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) comes down! Now it begins to get interesting.
Let’s skip to the good part first – the highest Bayesian Probability (BP) path is a target of 120 and then 123 now. The "best" set up for bulls would actually be a pullback into a confirmed vibration window for three trading days spanning 10/12, 10/15, and 10/16 – of which I’d say the 10/15-10/16 dates carry the most weight.
So basically, in a golden world, the LOD over the next three-day timespan should not be broken as we head into later next week.
Let’s talk BP supports: GLD 114.75 and 113.50. IF GLD powers directly to 116.50-ish, then it does begin to open up a conditional, pre-posterior risk of a "false break" out of the last 2-month basing pattern and then a strong turn down (this would also most likely coincide with the vibration window discussed).
For now, I will carry forward the following thoughts for perspective (as of 10/10). Here are a few BP paths for GLD:
(1) GLD presses sustainably above 114 and then thru 115.50; and then it could be difficult for bears to slow it down until at least 120 [BP = 30%],
(2) GLD remains mired within this wide trading band between 111-114 for several more weeks [BP= 44%], and
(3) GLD extends below 111 [BP = 28%].
Further, on a micro level I would add that holding GLD 111s and then rallying back above 113.25 would be conditionally a very strong signal in favor of the bulls and the 114s wall would most likely come down and put path 1 squarely in focus.
Further, I would add that there is a strong conditionally linked path between paths 1 and 2. What does that mean? Basically, path 2 has a layered conditional path to path 1, which implies that path 2 favors a break to path 1 versus path 3 once completed. This layered conditional path out of path 2 would have path 1 at 65% and path 3 at 35%.” Basically, it's good to see the BP odds work out on 10/11.