VXX: Top Struck In Primary Count?

The VXX (VIX Short-Term Futures ETN) is at a fairly key spot here as we are testing the 76.4 retrace level at the 29.57 level from the move down off of the 31.24 high. 

If we can manage to hold this level, then I still will give the benefit of the doubt that we are topping in a wave 2 as shown in white. If we break this level then we likely are going to head to new highs over the 31.24 level, at which point we are either following a larger wave B or potentially have struck a much larger degree bottom in the purple wave 5. Under that purple path I would still expect to see a retrace for a wave b lower before seeing the big breakout higher whereas the red path could take more of a direct breakout to the wave B. 

That said, let's first see if this can manage to hold the 29.57 level and see a five-wave move to the downside to signal that we have indeed struck a top in the primary count.

VXX 920 60m
VXX 920 60m
Michael Golembesky is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering US Indices, the US Dollar, and the VIX. He contributes frequently to Avi's Market Alerts service at EWT while also hosting his own VIX Trading service.