VERY Close To Bottoming

Now, I know you are being bombarded by “information” about how bearish the metals complex is right now, but I cannot say that I agree.  Rather, most of this decline has likely run its course, and probabilities suggest we are much closer to a major bottoming at this time.  While I can certainly be wrong, each time we have been in this position over the last two years, we have been able to prepare for an impending market directional change just as everyone else piles into the bearish camp.  While I do not expect this time to be different, as I noted below, a break down below 18.58 in GDX would make me think otherwise, with ideal support at 20.31.

The only change I have to report tonight is that silver made it quite clear that it is in a c-wave down for a larger degree 2nd wave.   While the structure down is not terribly clear as to where the subwaves reside, I would like to see a discernable 4th wave bounce soon to identify an appropriate bottoming structure in silver.

Meanwhile, GDX has been filling in quite nicely.  In fact, it has refused to drop to its ideal target for the 3rd wave, as seems to have truncated its pattern into the 1.382 extension for wave 4 of the c-wave of (2).  This potentially suggests that we are in a 4th wave now in GDX, which means that the next lower low can be the completion of this wave (2).

As far as the GLD is concerned, it is now testing multiple trend line convergences, and, as I stated before, as long as we hold of 117, I see nothing bearish about this set up.

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Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.